####018005059#### FXUS63 KLBF 160902 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 402 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very strong northwest wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible across north central Nebraska today allowing for a High Wind Warning to be put in place. - Cooler temperatures continue through early next week before returning to near normals. - Rain showers and thunderstorms return on Saturday night lasting through Tuesday with an increasing risk of severe storms especially on Sunday where there is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The main weather concern in the short term in the potential for very strong winds today as a cut-off low will continues to spin over the northern Plains. As the pressure gradient tightens around the western and southwestern edge today, surface winds will increase significantly. Latest models and soundings suggest northwest wind gusts in excess of 60 mph in some locations. Latest probabilities also hint at the the potential of seeing over 55 mph wind gusts over 50 percent. While some locations may not actually reach high wind criteria (gusts over 58 mph), there is still enough support to favor these stronger winds. Plus, with the continued favorability of these stronger winds over the past few days, could see them rising even a little bit from what is currently forecasted. After collaboration with surrounding offices, have opted to raise a High Wind Warning for much of north central Nebraska (basically northeast of a line from Merriman to Oconto). At this time there's no plans to extend the warning further to the southwest, but if winds continue to trend up, an extension further to the southwest may be needed. In addition to strong winds, this low will bring some light rain to areas north of Highway 2. Rain will move in from the north by 8am CT and spread southward through the morning and afternoon. Precipitation will exit the region by Friday evening giving way to clearing skies and dry conditions lasting through Saturday. Temperatures will remain cooler especially across the north through today as 850 mb temperatures in the 2 to 5 C range result in surface temperatures in the low to mid 50s. Further to the south forecasted temperatures will be slightly warmer in the 60s and low 70s where rain and clouds won't hinder temperatures. Clearing skies and some sun on Saturday will allow temperatures to range from the mid 60s in the north to the mid 70s south of I-80. Low temperatures will be quite chilly tonight as temperatures plummet into the mid to upper 30s for most locations. At this time, no frost/freeze headlines are anticipated, but this will be something to watch today. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Active weather returns on Saturday night lasting through next Tuesday as several rounds of disturbances impact the region. At this time the severe potential remains low for Saturday night, but is increasing for both Sunday and Monday evenings. A developing low and strong upper level trough will bring some better instability and forcing across the High Plains both Sunday and Monday. Hazards with these systems will mainly be large hail and strong winds, however, a tornado threat is also possible. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for the most up to date information including timing details, updated threats, and locations of greatest impact. Weak upper level ridging returns by mid-week with dry conditions for most locations through next Thursday. Temperatures begin to drop through the first half of the extended as plenty of clouds and precipitation are expected through at least Tuesday. Expect highs to struggle to only rise into the 50s on Tuesday. Temperatures begin to rise once again to near normals (low to mid 70s) for the second half of the week as clouds mix out and more favorable weather conditions return. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Low stratus overspreads northern Nebraska terminals around sunrise, with MVFR CIGs expected to persist into this afternoon. Gradual improvement back to VFR is expected for all area terminals this evening. Rain showers are also expected for terminals north of Highway 2 this afternoon, with locally MVFR visibilities possible. Winds quickly strengthen from the northwest after sunrise, with gusts as high as 40 to 50kts expected this afternoon for all area terminals. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ005>010-025>029-038-094. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Brown ####018009491#### FXUS62 KRAH 160903 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 503 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances moving atop an upper level ridge building across the SE US will support mainly diurnal showers and storms and unseasonably hot temperatures to end the work week. A series of cold fronts will move through the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday... * There remains a Conditional Threat for Strong/Severe Storms across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain this afternoon/early evening Overview: Strong upper level ridge centered over the Eastern US will move offshore late in the day. A shortwave trough associated with the upper cyclone moving into the Great Lakes will approach from the west late tonight/early Saturday. Today: Model spread remains high, and forecast confidence regarding storm potential this afternoon and evening continues to be low. The upper ridge could prove quite formidable again today. The exception may be across northern portions of the forecast area where shortwave vort disturbances spilling atop the ridge could support a cluster or two of very strong and severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Strong diurnal heating(afternoon highs upper 80s to lower 90s) within the seasonably moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates(7.5-8 deg C/km)associated with the EML lingering over the mid south and SE US will create a strongly unstable environment with MLCAPE expected to peak between 2000-3000 J/kg. Shear is also quite impressive with 0-3km shear forecast to strengthen to 35-40 kts during the afternoon and evening. If storms do make it into the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain, the robust instability and strong shear could allow for intense persistent updrafts and supercells to track east across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain counties. Large +2" hail and potentially destructive straight-line winds up to 75 mph. An isolated tornado is also possible. Alternatively, the ridge could shield central NC from the strong deep convection, diverting the severe threat north of the area, leaving it hot with considerable mid and high clouds across the area. So as you can see we are dealing with a very conditional threat for severe storms today. Stay vigilant and monitor the latest weather conditions. Tonight: Any convection should dissipate or move east of the area before midnight. The approach of the upper trough from the west could support some weakening convection moving into the western Piedmont towards sunrise. Otherwise, mostly dry overnight with record warmth expected(see climate section below). Lows 70 to 75. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 AM Friday... * Moderate instability and strong wly mid-level flow and shear profiles will support a conditional risk of severe storms once again Sat, especially from the ern Sandhills through the Coastal Plain during the afternoon, based on lower predictability, mesoscale influences from a decaying QLCS and outflow that will likely be moving across the NC Piedmont at the start of the period. A mid/upr-level cyclone will progress across the lwr Great Lakes and to nrn NY and VT by 12Z Sun. A significant shortwave perturbation will slightly precede the cyclone and partially phase with an energetic srn stream while moving across and offshore the Middle Atlantic through Sat. A band of convectively-enhanced vorticity, probably extending from wrn portions of the srn Middle Atlantic and Carolinas swwd into the TN Valley, and related to the aforementioned decaying QLCS there during the morning, will move ewd and across the Carolinas through early-mid afternoon. Related to the influence of each, mostly weak mid-level height falls will result over cntl NC throughout the period but maximize modestly at 20-40 meters around 18Z. An extensive and pristine EML plume will initially be in place across much of the Southeast but will migrate ewd and offshore ahead of the trough/cyclone, and also become contaminated by multiple rounds of deep convection through its wrn periphery, including into the TN Valley and wrn Carolinas, by the start of the period. At the surface, some degree of aggregate outflow will likely be in the process of moving across cntl NC, probably increasingly-ahead of decaying, parent convection. Where it slows and stalls, and how strong it remains when it does so, will likely have ramifications on subsequent convective initiation as convective temperatures are reached by early-mid afternoon. At this time, the greatest clustering from CAM guidance on its probable location would favor the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. A lee trough and progressively drier wswly flow to its west will also develop and move ewd across the Piedmont during the afternoon-evening, followed by a weak cold frontal passage Sat night While mesoscale uncertainties yield lower than average forecast confidence on sensible weather specifics, the most likely scenario related to the pattern described above will be for a band of generally weakening convection and overcast, and outflow with strong wind gusts up to 30-35 kts, to be in the process of moving across w- cntl NC early in the day. Associated stabilizing influence during the morning would then diminish as lingering precipitation and clouds dissipate by early afternoon, with those influences perhaps never reaching the ern Sandhills and Coastal Plain, where diurnal heating would be maximized beneath still relatively pristine EML. It will be there, where the aforementioned outflow boundary may have also surged and stalled, and where widely scattered storms would be most likely to develop. Shear profiles would favor a supercellular mode with attendant risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. It should otherwise be unseasonably hot again, with highs in the upr 80s-lwr 90s. While Sat night will feature clearing initially, high-level moisture in wly flow will probably result in a return of cirrostratus ceilings Sun morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 445 AM Friday... A mid/upr-level cyclone will move slowly across the Northeast and near the coast of Atlantic Canada through mid next week, while another develops across the Intermountain West and then progresses across the Rockies and Plains. The latter, preceded by shortwave ridging across the Southeast early in the week, will then progress across the OH Valley and lwr Great Lakes vicinity by Wed-Thu, during which time its influence will be most likely to impact cntl NC. At the surface, a convectively-reinforced frontal zone will likely become quasi-stationary from the mid MS Valley or upr Midwest to the srn Appalachians and wrn Carolinas, while Canadian high pressure will extend from ON to the Middle Atlantic. A lee cyclone will then track from the cntl/srn Plains to the Middle Atlantic by Wed-Thu, with typical model timing differences and forecast uncertainties at that time range. The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will feature continued unseasonably warm conditions, and mainly dry ones with the focus of convection into the srn Appalachians and wrn Carolinas, through Tue. Increasing chances of rain/convection will then result Wed-Wed night, and possibly linger into Thu, depending upon how quickly the cyclone ultimately moves through the Middle Atlantic. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 AM Friday... 24 hour TAF period: An isolated shower/storm or two remains possible overnight. Otherwise, with the exception for some variable restrictions at fog prone KRWI, all remainder TAF sites should remain VFR through daybreak. Forecast confidence is lower than normal wrt to storm potential this afternoon and evening. Upper level disturbances spilling atop a strong upper level ridge in place across the region may support isolated to scattered storms across the northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Alternatively, the upper ridge could largely suppress/stifle compression, keeping the area free of convection. Should storms hold together, strong instability and shear would be conducive for strong wind gusts of 30-50kt+, hail and sub-VFR conditions for any northern TAF site(KINT, KGSO, KRDU, and KRWI)that takes a direct hit. Given the uncertainty, will omit any mention of storms and restrictions at this time. But a period of storms/restrictions may need to be added with later TAF issuances. Outlook: Chances for diurnal isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through much of the period. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially in areas that received significant rainfall the previous day. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...CBL