####018006174#### FXAK69 PAFG 160910 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 110 AM AKDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Blustery winds over the past several days over the Interior are winding down today, although north winds will persist over the E Interior although much less breezy. A trough of low pressure moves into the W Interior the next few days with a weak high aloft over the E Interior forming this weekend, as a stubborn upper low finally exits into the Yukon. This will bring more widespread shower chances to parts of the Interior and West Coast, with gradually warming temps over the E Interior. The weather pattern is beginning to look more like a typical late Spring pattern. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... An upper level low stationed over the E Interior will continue to support a north winds gradient today, although winds are much weaker and less blustery. Rain showers will continue across the AK Range and into the Yukon-Tanana Uplands/Fortymile Country. Saturday is mostly dry and warming up as winds become southerly through the AK Range late Sat. Sunday clouds are increasing with a better chance of showers, and enough instability for a slight chance over thunderstorms over higher terrain in the Interior. - Less winds today over the Interior although continued northerly winds persist through this evening. - Temps are warming slightly this weekend. - Shower chances increase Sat over the Central Interior and spread east with a slight chance of higher elevation thunderstorms on Sunday. West Coast and Western Interior... Low pressure moves from the Bering Coast to the W Interior late this afternoon through this weekend, with rain showers moving east as a cool front shifts inland. It will be cooler and damper than the last several days as the front moves inland, which will likely bring lower clouds and stratus behind the front, too. - Cooler with more showers over the next few days as an upper low shifts inland. - Snow showers will be possible over the NW Arctic and W Brooks Range Sat night into Sun. North Slope and Brooks Range.. East winds continue to gust to 30 mph for Kaktovik today and tonight. Otherwise, the front weakens tonight and winds become northerly Sat and Sun. Mostly clear skies to start today more sun possible Sat along the E Arctic coast. Sat night and Sun will see more chances for stratus with the north winds. Rain/snow showers will be possible over the Brooks Range Sat night into next week. - Low impact weather with no significant impacts expected, seasonable temps, and showers over the Brooks Range this weekend. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... There is a weakening closed high aloft over the Beaufort Sea coast with a closed 532 dam low over the E Interior and into Fairbanks. There is a large upper low shifting east across the Chukotsk Peninsula. Showers persist over the AK Range and into the Fortymile, with a lightening northeast winds driven gradient over the Interior. With time, high pressure weakens and a trough will move into the West Coast later today and shift east through the weekend, bringing increased shower chances as it moves east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today is dry again for most of the Interior of AK with the lone exception being some light showers over the AK Range and the Yukon-Tanana Uplands. Northeast winds turn more northerly today and are 10 to 15 mph at most, with min RH back into the low 20 percent range instead of the teens. An upper trough will shift into the W Coast and W Interior Sat bringing light wetting rains east, and increasing chances for showers for the Central Interior. Showers continue to spread east Sun with a slight chance for isolated wet thunderstorms over the Interior highlands. It will be cool and damp out west as the cool front shifts inland after today. && .HYDROLOGY... The Yukon River is open from Tanana to downstream of Mountain Village. Ice runs from upstream of Tanana continue as ice degrades between Beaver and Rampart and heavy ice runs are still being seen along many reaches of the Yukon. Water levels remain low and no flooding is anticipated. Elsewhere, snowmelt flooding will likely push water levels along the Chena River up through the weekend, getting close to minor flood stage for the Upper Chena by Sun night. For Buckland River: - The Buckland River is slowly breaking up, with some open water in front of town. Directly upstream from town there is a mix of intact ice and open water and beyond that mostly open conditions towards the headwaters. Ice remains mostly intact downriver from Buckland, including at known jam points. A flood watch remains in effect for the Buckland River. - A local observer reports that water has come up two feet overnight 5/14 to 5/15, six more feet of rise will bring water levels over bank. Snow melt in the basin brings the potential for flooding as early as today if the intact ice below Buckland is strong enough to resist the push of water and ice. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... On Monday, there is good consensus among the suite of global models that a large upper low will be stationed over the W Interior with a weak ridge aloft over the E Interior. This is a classic late spring pattern and should translate into more showery activity with slight chances for thunderstorms all the way through the work week. The W Interior trough weakens as a strong low forms in the Gulf of AK, but sensible weather wise it won't change much with seasonal temps over most of the N Mainland. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Flood Watch for AKZ818. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. && $$ Ahsenmacher ####018003305#### FXUS65 KTWC 160911 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 211 AM MST Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures through early next week will generally be near normal. Breezy to windy conditions returning over the upcoming weekend as a system passes through bringing elevated fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... A shortwave low pressure system that is off the coast of California that is currently keeping the area under SW flow. This will allow for temperatures to be around normal today and Saturday. This feature will rejoin the main flow as a dropping low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest and building ridge in the Pacific can push the shortwave through this weekend. The shortwave and the low pressure system will bring gusty winds with the strongest winds on Saturday through Monday, with the strongest winds on Sunday, elevating fire weather conditions, more in the fire weather section. This system also will bring cooler temperatures nearly 9-14 degrees below normal on Monday. These cooler temperatures will not last long as once this system passes, the building ridge will bring the temperatures back into the 90s by Tuesday. The potentials for 100 degrees begin on Wednesday and through next Saturday. Current NBM probabilities have 40%, 80%, 75%, 50% on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday respectively. The increase in temperatures brings moderate HeatRisk to much of the valleys in Southeastern Arizona Thursday and Friday. People sensitive to heat and/or are without proper cooling and/or hydration should prepare for the heat. && .AVIATION...Valid through 17/12Z. FEW to BKN clouds AOA 20-25k ft AGL from KSAD to KOLS line from 16/15Z thru the end of the period, elsewhere SKC. SFC SW/W winds 9-14 kts gusts to 16-22 kts from 16/20Z thru 17/03Z. Otherwise sfc winds are terrain driven and under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be near normal today and Saturday. Typical afternoon breezes today and Friday for much of southeast Arizona, with breezy conditions persisting across Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties where 20-foot wind speeds will be around 15 mph and gusts up to 25-30 mph during the mid/late afternoon hours. Increasing west/southwest winds are expected over the upcoming weekend as another storm system moves to our north. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into Monday. Sunday looking to be the windiest of the period at 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 to 40 mph. Fire Weather Watch in effect from 10 AM to 7 PM on Sunday. Monday's winds will lower in speeds and focused on the eastern areas, Cochise County to the Gila River Valley. Temperatures will be 2-4 degrees below normal Sunday, lowering to 9-12 degrees below normal next Monday, warming to well above normal levels by the middle of next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ151>154. && $$ Tetrault Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson ####018006907#### FXUS63 KILX 160911 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 411 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a slight risk of severe storms east of the IL river from mid afternoon into mid evening. There is a level 3 of 5 (enhanced) risk for severe storms south of I-72, and a level 4 of 5 (moderate) risk south of I-70. All severe hazards are in play. - Southwest winds gusting 35-45 mph this afternoon will combine with relative humidity values below 30% north of I-72 to result in increased fire danger. These winds will also result in a risk for localized blowing dust, which could briefly diminish visibility for motorists. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 SPC Day1 outlook continues an enhanced to moderate risk risk of severe storms south of I-72 from mid afternoon to mid evening, with the moderate risk south of I-70. This area has a 30-45% chance of damaging wind gusts within 25 miles of a point, with 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 75 mph (hurricane force) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Areas south of I-70 have a 10-15% chance of tornadoes within 25 miles of a point with a 10% or greater probability of EF2 or stronger tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. The slight risk of severe storms extends as far nw as just east of the IL river, and areas east of the IL river had a 10% or greater probability of 2 inch or larger hail within 25 miles of a point. SPC issued a Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO) to address the moderate risk area over southern parts of IL/IN into east central and southeast MO and central and western KY. ILX will be doing a special 18Z sounding today in support of this severe wx risk. Please stay weather aware today especially if you are east of the IL river. Convection had shifted into far southern IL/IN and into southeast MO tied to a more active frontal boundary early this morning while nearly clear skies prevailed over central IL CWA. A strong 981 mb low pressure was over far west central MN and weaker 1000 mb low in central KS. Temps at 330 am were in the low to mid 60s over central IL and upper 60s to near 70F in southeast IL. Much drier air had moved into central IL with dewpoints ranging from the 45-50F nw of the IL river, to the mid 60s from Paris, to Mattoon to Effingham southeast. A negative tilted mid level trough to move into the mid/upper MS river valley late today with strong surface low tracking eastward across central MN and pressure gradient to tighten over central IL. This will increase SSW winds back to breezy levels during mid/late morning with wind gusts of 35-45 mph north of I-70 this afternoon and winds turn WSW to SW. DESI HREF had 20-40% chance of wind gusts of 45 mph or higher from I-72 north this afternoon. Strong instability lifts back north into portions of central and southeast IL during this afternoon with MLCAPES rising to 2000-3700 j/kg east of the IL river by 21Z/4 pm, highest in southeast IL where 0-6km bulk shear values are 50-70 kts. The 0-3 km helicity is forecast to reach 200-250 m2/s2 by late afternoon and supports supercells and tornadoes especially in southeast IL. Convection to start develop along and east of the IL river during mid afternoon and become more widespread and strong as it shifts into eastern/se IL during late afternoon and early evening with passage of cold front. Most of convection should be east of CWA by sunset. Warm highs today in the mid to upper 80s though should be a bit shy of record highs in the lower 90s. Breezy westerly winds prevail tonight and Saturday with gusts 25-30 mph as large low pressure system moves east of Lake Huron. Mostly sunny Saturday with cooler highs in the low to mid 70s. Light wind on Sunday with increasing clouds from the sw by Sunday afternoon and have slight chance of showers sw CWA later Sunday. Seasonable highs Sunday in the mid to upper 70s. More active weather pattern returns during next week, with chances of showers and some thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday, and higher chances of convection and heavier rainfall Monday night through Tue evening per blended forecast. Though models still differ with evolution of storm systems translating eastward through the MO, mid MS and Ohio river valleys during Mon through Wed frame. Highs in the low to mid 70s Monday to cool into the low to mid 60s Wed and mid to upper 60s Thu. Seasonably cool lows Wed and Thu nights in the mid to upper 40s. 07 && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Low pressure will move from the Upper Midwest overnight to the Great Lakes late Friday as a cold front pushes across central Illinois Friday evening. Increasingly gusty southerly winds are expected during the day Friday ahead of the front with gusts eventually peaking around or above 30 kt Friday afternoon. Storms are expected to develop overhead mid to late Friday afternoon and push east across central Illinois through the early evening. Winds turn west to northwesterly behind the cold front Friday evening and the chance for precip will diminish behind the front. Outside of precip, VFR conditions are expected through the period. Deubelbeiss && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The latest RAP and HRRR models continue to show dewpoints dropping sufficiently to bring RH values into the 20-30% range north of I-72 late morning and afternoon. Combining this with south to southwest winds gusting 35-45 mph this afternoon and shifting west to southwest will increase the risk for erratic fire behavior, so we recommend limiting or at least using extra precautions with any burning activities during the late morning into early evening. A special weather statement was issued for areas from I-72 northward to address the enhanced fire danger today. Bumgardner/Huettl && .CLIMATE... Issued at 300 AM CDT FRI May 16 2025 Peoria IL tied a record high of 93F on May 15th which was 1st set in 1894. The normal high temperature on this day is 74. Record temperatures for today May 16: Location Fri Record . High ============= ========== Bloomington 92/1900 Champaign 92/2001 Charleston 94/2001 Decatur 92/2001 Jacksonville 90/2001 Lincoln 92/2001 Olney 91/2001 Peoria 93/1894 Springfield 93/2001 Geelhart/Huettl && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ####018011307#### FXUS65 KABQ 160912 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 312 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 146 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 - Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather late this weekend and early next week. Winds will be strongest on Sunday and Monday when gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common, leading to an increased risk of rapid fire spread. - Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will develop over northwestern to north central New Mexico Sunday and Monday with a few thunderstorms also accompanying in the afternoon and early evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 146 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 The subtropical jet remains to the south of the forecast area, however the Low currently off the coast of Baja California will begin to move northeastward this afternoon, pushing high clouds in from the south this evening into the overnight. A light westerly breeze will prevail around the region today and a subtle rise in heights will help increase high temps a few to several degrees over yesterday's values. Highs in the 70s and 80s along with lows in the 40s and 50s will be right around 30yr averages for this time of year. Once again, smoke from the Greer Fire in Arizona may create some haze and smoke in southwestern areas, but significant reductions in air quality are unlikely since winds will be relatively weak today. The aformentioned Low opens and ejects across south-central NM on Saturday, increasing wind speeds. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be commonplace over the entire forecast area, with the strongest winds in the Sacramento mountains where there may be a few afternoon gusts upwards of 45 mph. The increase of moisture aloft will result in an expansion of cloud cover, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 146 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 An upper level trough will move out of the Great Basin Saturday night and trek just north of the Four Corners area by Sunday morning. This will lead to a confluence of the polar and subtropical jets over NM with the polar segment hosting speeds of 100 kt at 300 mb as it precedes the trough. This increased gradient aloft and a deepening surface low over the eastern border of CO will yield stronger winds at the surface over NM. For now, the northeastern highlands and high plains, as well as the highlands of southwestern Chaves county, appear to be candidates for a possible Wind Advisory Sunday with gusts of 45 to 50 mph. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be more commonplace in surrounding zones. Precip looks to largely bypass NM, but a few scant showers and thunderstorms will develop near the NM-CO border in our northwestern zones. Temperatures would cool a few degrees in these zones as heights lower and the Pacific front begins to overtake. Into Monday, the vort lobe associated with the aforementioned trough will lift into the northern high plains and badlands of WY/NE/SD while a new upstream low races southeastward on its backside. There is some spread among model solutions with regards to how far south this second low will drop. The evening runs of the GFS are coming in much farther south into NM by late Monday. This would increase the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms over northwestern to north central zones while shunting the strongest winds farther south if this solution pans out. Ensemble means and the blended 50th percentile precip still paints meager QPF over northwestern and north central zones, generally 0.15 or less. Wind will remain strong with a new surface low quickly developing over the panhandles, trying to beat the next rapidly encroaching Pacific front. Winds would veer more west northwest on Monday, and the strongest speeds would be found over the central mountain chain where at least brief advisory level gusts (50 mph) would develop. The low will exit into the panhandles as an opening wave Monday night with brisk northwest to northerly winds persisting overnight. Breezes would reduce through the day Tuesday, mostly retaining the northwesterly to northerly direction. Western and central zones will actually begin to undergo significant warming of 5 to 10 degrees Tuesday as pressure heights rise again. A subtle upper ridge will then build in for Wednesday while surface winds veer in response to a surface high building down the southern plains. The polar jet would be considerably weaker through Tuesday and Wednesday, but would potentially start to increase over the northern Rockies by Thursday, as it ushers in a shortwave trough. For now, this seems to be displaced far enough north to keep winds from increasing much in NM. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Light and terrain dominated winds prevail around the region tonight, then a westerly breeze increases during the late morning tomorrow. The strongest breezes will occur in eastern areas, impacting KLVS and KTCC. Some elevated smoke from the Greer fire in eastern AZ may impact visibility in portions of southwestern NM tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 146 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Wind speeds will generally be weaker than the past couple of days around the forecast area today, with localized gusty winds confined to areas in and around the northern mountains. Fire weather concerns increase Saturday as a Low opens and ejects across central NM. The increase in winds and very low humidity will create critical fire weather concerns in south-central NM along the Rio Grande Valley, however a Fire Weather Watch was not issued due to how localized condtions appear right now. Winds will trend stronger on Sunday as a Pacific storm system approaches from the northwest. The atmospheric conditions for critical fire weather are likely across much of the area, however fuels will be a limiting factor in many areas, including most of eastern NM due to recent rainfall. While fuels may be receptive in west-central and northwestern NM, higher humidities in the wake of a cold front look to limit fire weather concerns there. Temperatures drop areawide Monday behind another, stronger front and some light precipitation may even develop over the higher terrain of western and northern NM. Temperatures rebound mid-week, rising above seasonal averages by late week. With the polar jet off to the north, winds look to remain light enough to keep fire weather concerns at bay Tuesday through at least the end of the workweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 75 41 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 32 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 71 40 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 33 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 71 39 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 35 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 74 40 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 77 48 76 45 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 74 41 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 81 37 78 36 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 84 40 82 39 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 65 34 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 71 48 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 69 43 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 39 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 58 33 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 28 67 26 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 72 35 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 70 38 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 78 44 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 72 46 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 43 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 54 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 51 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 49 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 84 46 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 82 49 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 83 45 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 83 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 83 45 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 77 51 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 82 50 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 87 53 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 73 47 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 75 48 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 75 45 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 37 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 71 42 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 75 47 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 75 45 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 80 55 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 74 50 72 47 / 0 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 70 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 76 39 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 76 39 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 74 42 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 79 47 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 76 45 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 83 48 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 49 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 83 49 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 85 55 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 85 52 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 85 52 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 90 59 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 86 55 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 85 54 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NMZ106-109. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...16 ####018005159#### FXUS63 KGID 160914 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 414 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northwest winds today. Gusts to 60 MPH are possible, mainly near and north of Highway 92. A High Wind Warning is in effect for these areas. - Light rain showers today. Most areas will not see measurable rain. - Severe thunderstorms are possible on both Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 414 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Currently, a band of sprinkles stretches from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska. This band will continue eastward into the morning hours, but measurable precipitation is unlikely. A strong upper low passing to our north will push gusty northwest winds into the area today. The ECMWF/EPS have consistently shown wind gusts approaching/exceeding high-wind criteria (50kts...58 mph) for several runs. Forecast gusts from the high=resolution CAMs aren't quite as optimistic, but HRRR/RAP forecast soundings still indicate deep mixing with wind speeds at or above 50 kt at the top of the mixed layer. Additionally, some light rain showers are expected to push into northern parts of the area late this morning into the afternoon, potentially providing additional enhancement for winds. All this being considered, a High Wind Warning was issued for the areas that are most likely to see severe (58 MPH+) gusts. The rest of the area will be quite windy as well, with sustained wind speeds ranging from 25-40 MPH and gusts of 40-55 MPH (highest north). These winds, combined with with humidity in the 20-25 percent range, will also result in near-critical fire weather conditions, mainly for southern portions of the area where they see the least cloud cover. Any rain showers this afternoon will be light, and likely will remain confined to areas north of Highway 92. The probability for even 0.05" of rain is only 10-15% in these areas. Winds gradually diminish this evening into tonight. Clearing skies should allow temperatures to fall into the 40s in most areas...and possibly into the upper 30s in northern and western parts of the forecast area (Valley and Dawson counties). Saturday should be a very pleasant day across the area. Seasonable temperatures (70s), light winds, and mostly clear skies are expected. A weak shortwave will to move through the central Plains. Low chances for rain showers return late Saturday night, but any severe convection is expected to remain to our southeast. On Sunday, an upper trough is expected to deepen over the Rockies, pushing more warm/moist air into the central Plains. Exact details remain uncertain, but a surface low is expected to develop over eastern Colorado, with a warm front lifting northward across the area and a dryline setting up to our southwest. Convective parameters are favorable for supercells (40-50kt+ effective shear...MLCAPE 1500-2500J/kg+), but capping/coverage of storms remains the primary uncertainty. A strengthening LLJ will then keep some severe threat going well into the overnight hours. The latest NBM has a 60-90% chance for rain/thunderstorms across most of the area Sunday night, but beneficial rain is far from a "guarantee," but the northeastern half of the area dues show a 60% chance for 0.25" or more per the 00Z global ensembles. On Monday, another round of thunderstorms is possible as the upper trough ejects through the central Plains. Again, convective details are very uncertain at this range, but parameters appear favorable for at least some severe threat...especially eastern-southeastern parts of the area as indicated by the SPC outlook and AI-NWP convective forecasts. Some showers could continue into Tuesday, but the severe threat decreases as we move into a cooler post-frontal airmass. High temperatures on Tuesday are "only" expected to reach the 60s. Northern areas could even be stuck in the upper 50s! The forecast dries out for the middle of next week, but spotty chances for thunderstorms do return by the end of next week into the weekend. Temperatures also return to the 70s and 80s by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected through the period. Clouds will increase into Friday morning, but ceilings should stay 7kft or more. A few sprinkles are possible, but coverage/impacts are too low to include in this TAF period. LLWS is possible through sunrise, then surface winds increase substantially on Friday. Northwest winds gusting over 40kts are likely late morning through the afternoon on Friday. Winds then gradually diminish Friday evening. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels ####018008202#### FXCA62 TJSJ 160915 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 515 AM AST Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Abundant tropical moisture and a strong upper-level trough to the west will bring an unsettled weather pattern, increasing the risk of excessive rainfall impacts across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, especially on Friday and Saturday. * Breezy winds will maintain choppy to rough seas, with a moderate risk of rip currents through at least late tonight. * Saharan dust will continue to filter the region, resulting in hazy skies in areas with little or no rainfall. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday... A deep layered trough, currently over La Espanola and the Mona Passage, will continue to gradually move eastward towards our region and promote more favorable conditions for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, and generally wet and unstable conditions, while lso ehancing the diurnal convective pattern each afternoon. East- southeast steering flow over the region will persist during the period, although interrupted by and induced surface trough, and continue to bring increased moisture over the islands. Current model guidance indicates less precipitable water (PWAT) totals over the region than previous runs, but still indicate normal to above normal values for this time of the year with slight decreases at times. The deep layered trough from the west will converge with this deep tropical moisture from the east-southeast. This trough and possible TUTT low, will gradually start to move away from the area late in the period. A broad surface high pressure system over the Atlantic moving further into the central Atlantic will continue to maintain generally breezy conditions today, gradually decreasing on Saturday. 925 mb temperatures are forecast to drop to below normal values through Sunday night, where they return to normal values. With moisture and instability (500mb temperatures droping to around -7 to -8.5C) increasing, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to become more widespread as we continue through the short term period, particularly over northwestern, interior, southeastern and eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. However, a Saharan Air Layer will continue to filter into the local area during the short term period resulting in hazy conditions. will be present across the USVI and PR. This could be a limiting factor (along with cloud coverage) for this wet pattern during the short term period. Current model guidance does show a slight delay in the arrival of the bulk of the Saharan Air Layer, compared to previous runs and we continue to lean towards a wetter forecast during the period. With already saturated soils and elevated streams, there is up to an elevated risk of urban and small stream flooding, potentially isolated flash flooding, river rises and debris flow in steep terrains. Please refer to the hydro section below, the latest Hazardoud Weather Outlook and the latest Hydrologic Outlook for more information. .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday... Recent model guidance shows no significant changes. A dynamic interplay between upper-level and surface features will continue to drive periods of marginal instability across the northeastern Caribbean. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) Low will keep lifting northeastward and will likely exit the region by Monday. A second short-wave upper-level trough will follow, settling into the region starting Tuesday. This second feature will help sustain the developing mid-level ridge over the western Caribbean, reinforcing a marginally unstable weather pattern across the local area. At the surface, a weakening induced trough will continue to disrupt the trade wind flow, keeping winds lighter and more variable early in the week. A broader surface high over the central North Atlantic will help trap tropical moisture across the eastern Caribbean, while a weaker high lifting northeastward over the western Atlantic will help push most of that moisture south of the local islands. As this high dissipates, east-southeasterly winds will likely strengthen and become more established by midweek, continuing through the latter part of the week. This pattern shift will not only support a gradual increase in tropical moisture but may also lead to warmer-than-normal conditions. The combination of moisture and marginal instability will continue to favor shower and thunderstorm development, especially in the afternoons, due to daytime heating and local effects. Starting Wednesday, conditions will likely become more favorable for deeper thunderstorm activity as 500 mb temperatures drop to near-normal levels for this time of year, below -6 °C, through the second half of the week. Light winds, particularly through Tuesday, will limit storm movement and ventilation, allowing showers and storms to linger longer over the same areas, increasing the potential for locally heavy rainfall and flooding. Meanwhile, Saharan dust will continue over the region, with concentrations likely peaking on Monday. This could temporarily suppress rainfall and lower air quality, especially across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Generally VFR conditions across the TAF sites with MVFR conditions possible due to trade wind SHRA and afternoon SHRA/TSRA, affecting TJSJ/TISX/TIST/TJPS and, TJBQ (after 16/16z). E-SE steering winds will increase to 15–20 kts after 16/14Z, becoming light and variable after 16/22Z (however higher gusts are possible in and near SHRA/TSRA). In general, SHRA/TSRA is expected to increase during the period while minor concentrations of Saharan dust will also filter in.le in and near SHRA/TSRA). && .MARINE... A broad surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through tonight. As a result, small craft should continue to exercise caution. Over the weekend and into early next week, a surface trough will gradually weaken these winds. At the same time, a deep trough to the west of the region will support an unsettled weather pattern, with a high chance of thunderstorm development through at least Saturday. These storms could lead to locally higher winds and seas. In addition, hazy conditions are likely over the weekend due to the presence of Saharan dust. && .BEACH FORECAST... Life-threatening rip currents are possible along most northern and east-southeast exposed beaches of the islands today and tonight. The risk will likely diminish by Saturday as winds ease gradually. However, moderate rip current risk will likely return for Saint Croix early next week. For more information, please refer to the latest Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU). Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely increase by the end of the week and continue into the weekend as the region transitions back to a wet and unstable weather pattern. Reminder: Seek shelter and leave the water or beach immediately at the first sign of thunder or lightning. && .HYDROLOGY... Abundant moisture and increasing instability associated with an approaching upper-level trough will heighten the risk of flooding across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today and Saturday. With already saturated soils and elevated river levels in some areas, any additional heavy rainfall could lead to urban and flash flooding, river flooding, and landslides, even after the heaviest rain has ended. For more details, please refer to the Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU). && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MRR LONG TERM....ICP