####018011307#### FXUS65 KABQ 160919 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 319 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 146 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 - Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather late this weekend and early next week. Winds will be strongest on Sunday and Monday when gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common, leading to an increased risk of rapid fire spread. - Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will develop over northwestern to north central New Mexico Sunday and Monday with a few thunderstorms also accompanying in the afternoon and early evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 146 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 The subtropical jet remains to the south of the forecast area, however the Low currently off the coast of Baja California will begin to move northeastward this afternoon, pushing high clouds in from the south this evening into the overnight. A light westerly breeze will prevail around the region today and a subtle rise in heights will help increase high temps a few to several degrees over yesterday's values. Highs in the 70s and 80s along with lows in the 40s and 50s will be right around 30yr averages for this time of year. Once again, smoke from the Greer Fire in Arizona may create some haze and smoke in southwestern areas, but significant reductions in air quality are unlikely since winds will be relatively weak today. The aformentioned Low opens and ejects across south-central NM on Saturday, increasing wind speeds. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be commonplace over the entire forecast area, with the strongest winds in the Sacramento mountains where there may be a few afternoon gusts upwards of 45 mph. The increase of moisture aloft will result in an expansion of cloud cover, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 146 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 An upper level trough will move out of the Great Basin Saturday night and trek just north of the Four Corners area by Sunday morning. This will lead to a confluence of the polar and subtropical jets over NM with the polar segment hosting speeds of 100 kt at 300 mb as it precedes the trough. This increased gradient aloft and a deepening surface low over the eastern border of CO will yield stronger winds at the surface over NM. For now, the northeastern highlands and high plains, as well as the highlands of southwestern Chaves county, appear to be candidates for a possible Wind Advisory Sunday with gusts of 45 to 50 mph. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be more commonplace in surrounding zones. Precip looks to largely bypass NM, but a few scant showers and thunderstorms will develop near the NM-CO border in our northwestern zones. Temperatures would cool a few degrees in these zones as heights lower and the Pacific front begins to overtake. Into Monday, the vort lobe associated with the aforementioned trough will lift into the northern high plains and badlands of WY/NE/SD while a new upstream low races southeastward on its backside. There is some spread among model solutions with regards to how far south this second low will drop. The evening runs of the GFS are coming in much farther south into NM by late Monday. This would increase the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms over northwestern to north central zones while shunting the strongest winds farther south if this solution pans out. Ensemble means and the blended 50th percentile precip still paints meager QPF over northwestern and north central zones, generally 0.15 or less. Wind will remain strong with a new surface low quickly developing over the panhandles, trying to beat the next rapidly encroaching Pacific front. Winds would veer more west northwest on Monday, and the strongest speeds would be found over the central mountain chain where at least brief advisory level gusts (50 mph) would develop. The low will exit into the panhandles as an opening wave Monday night with brisk northwest to northerly winds persisting overnight. Breezes would reduce through the day Tuesday, mostly retaining the northwesterly to northerly direction. Western and central zones will actually begin to undergo significant warming of 5 to 10 degrees Tuesday as pressure heights rise again. A subtle upper ridge will then build in for Wednesday while surface winds veer in response to a surface high building down the southern plains. The polar jet would be considerably weaker through Tuesday and Wednesday, but would potentially start to increase over the northern Rockies by Thursday, as it ushers in a shortwave trough. For now, this seems to be displaced far enough north to keep winds from increasing much in NM. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period. Light and terrain dominated winds prevail around the region tonight, then a westerly breeze increases during the late morning tomorrow. The strongest breezes will occur in eastern areas, impacting KLVS and KTCC. Some elevated smoke from the Greer fire in eastern AZ may impact visibility in portions of southwestern NM tomorrow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 146 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Wind speeds will generally be weaker than the past couple of days around the forecast area today, with localized gusty winds confined to areas in and around the northern mountains. Fire weather concerns increase Saturday as a Low opens and ejects across central NM. The increase in winds and very low humidity will create critical fire weather concerns in south-central NM along the Rio Grande Valley, however a Fire Weather Watch was not issued due to how localized condtions appear right now. Winds will trend stronger on Sunday as a Pacific storm system approaches from the northwest. The atmospheric conditions for critical fire weather are likely across much of the area, however fuels will be a limiting factor in many areas, including most of eastern NM due to recent rainfall. While fuels may be receptive in west-central and northwestern NM, higher humidities in the wake of a cold front look to limit fire weather concerns there. Temperatures drop areawide Monday behind another, stronger front and some light precipitation may even develop over the higher terrain of western and northern NM. Temperatures rebound mid-week, rising above seasonal averages by late week. With the polar jet off to the north, winds look to remain light enough to keep fire weather concerns at bay Tuesday through at least the end of the workweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 75 41 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 32 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 71 40 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 33 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 71 39 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 35 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 74 40 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 77 48 76 45 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 74 41 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 81 37 78 36 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 84 40 82 39 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 65 34 69 36 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 71 48 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 69 43 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 39 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 58 33 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 28 67 26 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 72 35 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 70 38 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 78 44 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 72 46 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 43 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 54 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 51 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 49 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 84 46 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 82 49 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 83 45 84 45 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 83 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 83 45 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 77 51 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 82 50 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 87 53 86 49 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 73 47 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 75 48 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 75 45 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 37 78 39 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 71 42 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 75 47 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 75 45 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 80 55 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 74 50 72 47 / 0 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 70 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 76 39 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 76 39 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 74 42 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 79 47 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 76 45 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 83 48 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 49 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 83 49 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 85 55 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 85 52 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 85 52 86 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 90 59 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 86 55 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 85 54 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NMZ106-109. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...16 ####018007580#### FXUS63 KFSD 160919 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 344 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds and persistent rain to rain showers are expected to drift back southward on Friday. - Wind gusts over 50 mph may be possible at times through Friday afternoon. Wind advisories have been issued and local upgrades to high wind warnings possible. - Counties along the Missouri River may see wind gusts up to 60 mph. These counties have been upgraded to a High Wind warning. - After a quiet and cool weekend, moderate to high probabilities of rain (90%) return Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 TODAY: Looking at GOES upper water vapor imagery, we can see the upper low pressure spinning over the intersections of South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota. This is expected to slowly move northeast today. Looking at the surface we see the associated surface low pressure sitting over eastern North Dakota. There is high agreement in short range guidance that this low will sink south and east this morning. As it does so, moisture will wrap around the low, and light rain showers will overspread the region after sunrise today. There is just enough elevated instability that you may hear a rumble or two of thunder with these, but severe weather is not expected. Showers will gradually taper off this evening. Additional accumulation of around a tenth or two for most places. In addition to showers today we are expecting continued strong winds out of the west to northwest. This is in response to the deepening low increasing the SPG. Sustained winds will blow between 30-40 mph with frequent gusts 45-55 mph. The highest gusts are expected from Gregory county in south central South Dakota, along the Missouri River counties and south into Nebraska. In this area gusts to 60 mph are possible. ESATs tables indicate the wind speed in the 850-700 mb layer are at or very near maximum for climatology. Soundings indicate we will easily be mixing this high today. In addition, soundings indicate the winds at the top of the mixed layer will be 50-55 kts. If we meet mixing potential, that translates to wind gusts at the surface that meet High Wind Warning criteria. The conclusion is that these counties will be borderline for High wind warning, and after coordination with neighbors, I have decided to upgrade those few counties to a High Wind Warning this afternoon. As far as the rest of the county warning area, the Wind Advisory looks to be in good shape. However, we will continue to monitor the trends to see if an expansion to the High Wind Warning is necessary. Winds will slowly decrease overnight tonight and through the day Saturday. Highs today will be cool, in the low to mid 50s. Areas of northwestern Iowa will be the warmest and may see temperatures reaching the low 60s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Weak upper ridging and surface high pressure pull in some dryer air in the mid-levels early Saturday morning, ending showers. However, the lower levels remain saturated, resulting in a fairly thick stratus layer that will hang around for most of the day Saturday. By mid-afternoon, as the larger low pressure system continues to pull away, we'll begin to see more dry air move in, slowly eroding the clouds. By the late afternoon, some peaks of sunshine are expected. As mentioned, winds will still be breezy Saturday morning with northwest gusts 20-25 mph. Those winds are expected to slowly decrease through the day Saturday, becoming light and variable after sunset. High temperatures will be on the cool side, with areas north of I-90 expected to see mid 50s to low 60s. South of I-90, especially along the Missouri River, highs will reach the mid to upper 60s. Lows will be chilly, in the 30s. For most areas, this is around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average for this time of year. Zonal upper flow for Sunday with a shallow embedded wave may bring some light showers to central South Dakota Sunday morning. These are expected to be very light, with a hundredth or two of accumulation. Easterly winds with weak WAA will warm the 850 mb layer to 6-10 deg C. Mixing that down we can expect highs in the mid to upper 60s with 70s possible along the Missouri River and northwestern Iowa. Meanwhile, to the west we see an upper trough digging over the Rockies. This trough begins to eject out onto the plains by late Sunday afternoon. Easterly winds increase Sunday afternoon in response to the tightening SPG ahead of this next system. Winds remain breezy overnight with gusts of 20-25 mph. Also overnight, the surface low moves out of Colorado into western Nebraska and accelerates northeast toward eastern South Dakota. We will find ourselves in the warm sector of this system, with strong WAA triggering showers beginning late Sunday night into Monday. MONDAY-THURSDAY: There is good agreement in mid-range guidance on the overall track of the low, with the EC continuing to bring the track just a bit farther north than the others. Ensembles indicate high probability of receiving an inch or more of rain, between 80- 100%, from onset early Monday through ending late Tuesday. Currently, the better dynamics look to remain south of our region, keeping the severe weather risk low. However, shifts in track of this system could bring stronger storms to the region. We will continue to monitor the trends. Conditions dry out as an upper ridge builds in for Wednesday. Here model guidance begins to diverge. All indicate a fast moving system for Friday, but agreement on timing and track are low. Temperatures during this time will remain on the cool side of average, in 50s and 60s. Finally warming in the the 70s again by Thursday and Friday.&& .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Most of the area will see VFR conditions overnight, although MVFR stratus will move into the US Hwy 14 corridor overnight. This stratus sinks south through the day Friday, leading to widespread MVFR to patchy IFR conditions. Showers on-going tonight near US Hwy 14 will also move south and expand over the area during the day Friday, so could see some MVFR visibility with heavier showers. Strong westerly winds continue, with gusts 30 to 40+ knots for most of the period, tapering off after sunset Friday. Areas along and south of I-90 could see some LLWS with gusts diminishing overnight - although expect these to increase as we approach/pass daybreak Friday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040-050- 052>070. Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ071. MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098. IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001-002. Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ003-012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ013-014. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJP AVIATION...SG ####018006904#### FXUS65 KRIW 160919 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 319 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A drier and milder day today with only around a 1 in 4 chance of a shower or storm in northern Wyoming. - A better chance of showers and storms Saturday, with strong storms possible southwestern Wyoming. - Turning much cooler Sunday and Monday with rain and mountain snow across much of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Active weather will continue as we head through the next several days. We do have signs summer is coming though. The first sign is twilight when I go out to prepare the weather balloon for launch. This is around 4:45 am. Another sign is light still in the sky when I drive to work around 9:45 pm for my favorite shift, the midnight shift. (Yes, I am one of those weird people who prefers working at night). It will not feel like summer the next several days though, and some locations will feel like winter at times, especially early next week. Today looks like one of the least active days of the next several. Shortwave ridging will move across Wyoming and bring a lull in the persistent showers and storms. There will be weak trailing shortwave that could being some showers this afternoon and evening, but these would be restricted to northern Wyoming and most of the population centers should stay mainly dry. Temperatures will also be somewhat warmer, but still only around 5 degrees below normal for most. And the shortwave will bring gusty wind to Johnson County for another day, but there should not be 60 mph gusts like yesterday. Ensemble guidance only gives a 1 in 3 chance of gusts past 40 mph for most at this time. Things start getting more active on Saturday as an upper level low moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest and increases moisture across the area once again. Saturday should start dry for most but coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase as the low approaches. And things may get a little interesting. There will be decent upper level divergence across the area, and some morning sunshine may destabilize the atmosphere somewhat. Lifted indices will be negative and CAPE values will increase to 500 J/KG at times across southwestern Wyoming. The Storm Prediction Center has put this portion of Wyoming under a marginal risk, with the main threat being strong wind gusts. The most numerous storms will be across western Wyoming. In areas East of the Divide, southwesterly flow will raise some high temperatures to around 70. It also likely keep most areas dry most of the time, with the average chance of a shower or thunderstorms around 1 out of 4 in this area. The aforementioned upper level low will then dive southeastward through the weekend and into Monday, with lee cyclogenesis likely occurring Sunday night into Monday in eastern Colorado and lifting into the Plains, with another upper level low developing over the western Plains States. As a result showers will become more numerous across the area on Sunday, with another chance of afternoon thunderstorms, this time with thunder mainly East of the Divide where the best instability will be. And this will be the day we may make a transition back into winter for some locations. As flow turns northerly behind the low, much colder air will move in. Some model guidance drops 700 millibar temperatures as low as minus 5 across western Wyoming Sunday night, and this could lead to snow levels falling as low as 6000 to 6500 feet, possibly bring a coating of snow the western valleys. The colder air then spreads East of the Divide Sunday night and especially Monday. And this is where the bulk of the precipitation will be that day. The air won't be quite as cold here, with 700 millibar temperatures generally bottoming out at around minus 7, which would put snow levels around 7000 feet. And, given the position of the low and north-northeasterly flow, the Bighorns would be the most impacted area. Some probabilities for over 6 inches of snow include around 3 out of 4 in the higher elevations of the Bighorns and Wind River Range, with about a 3 out of 5 chance in the Tetons and Absarokas through Monday night. Chances of a foot are generally only 1 out of 2 at the very highest elevations so if highlights are needed it would likely be advisories. This also looks to be a wet storm, with most locations East of the Divide and the northern Mountains having at least a 1 out of 2 chance of a half an inch or more of QPF and favored north- northeast upslope locations like Buffalo, Thermopolis and Lander having a 1 in 2 chance of an inch or QPF or more. As for flooding, areas northeast of a Casper to Cody line have a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday and areas along and east of Interstate 25 have one for Monday. The rain will fall over a fairly long period though. In addition, with the colder air moving in, rapid snowmelt from rain is not likely as the higher elevations would see mainly snow. We will watch it though. Monday will be the coldest day of the week, with mainly locations having highs in the 40s. We should begin to dry out as the low moves away on Tuesday, although some lingering moisture will keep a few showers around, especially in eastern Wyoming. Flat ridging should then hold for the rest of the period, bring more seasonal temperatures, Another shortwave may bring some showers and storms more midweek, but timing is all over the place this far out. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1030 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours. Any precipitation should be east and south of RIW/CPR to start the period, carrying only VCSH at CPR. Otherwise, broken low to mid level ceilings at all locations with light winds less than 10kts into the Friday morning hours. Ceilings will lift or scatter out with daytime heating and mixing after around 18-19Z as winds increase at BPI/PNA/RKS and strongest at CPR up to 25kts. A weaker and less scattered round of rain showers will only affect JAC/COD between 19/20-01/02Z with conditions likely to remain VFR (>60%). Otherwise, improved conditions in the wake of these rain showers lifting and scattering out as well after the end of the period and overnight into Saturday morning. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...Lowe