####018007211#### FXUS64 KSHV 171646 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1146 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Some residual outflows are still present across parts of NE LA Louisiana from earlier convection this morning. Otherwise, vis satellite reveals an abundance of cu/stratocu across much of the region as dew points continue to hover in the lower to mid 70s. Meanwhile, ambient temperatures have already climbed well into the 80s despite all the cloud cover in place. Looking at our 12Z SHV sounding, it reveals far less of a capping inversion to overcome as compared to this time yesterday. With that in mind, confidence in convective initiation by late this afternoon has increased for our NW zones and has prompted an expansion of the Day 1 Enhanced Risk across the areas roughly extending along and north of a line from Tyler, TX to near El Dorado, AR while the severe weather risk decreases farther south of that line. This threat of severe storms will extend well into the evening hours as an advancing shortwave across TX will help to induce greater forcing aloft combined with some frontal forcing along the cold front to our north and west. For this update, minimal changes were needed to account for more cloud cover and slight adjustments to hourly temperatures trends based on the latest obs. Severe wording was also added for areas in the Slight/Enhanced Risk areas, generally along and north of I-20. Otherwise, the forecast is on track for the remainder of today and tonight. Further updates on the severe weather threats expected over the next several days will be forthcoming with the afternoon forecast package. /19/ && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 While Friday was mostly a dud when it comes to thunderstorms in our area, we are currently dealing with some thunderstorms that have developed in the last hour across far northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas. The HRRR has these thunderstorms lingering over the next few hours and then shifting southward towards the I-20 corridor towards sunrise before guidance suggest they should diminish. While we may have lucked out with severe storms on Friday, today could be a different story. Surface analysis from this morning shows a frontal boundary that extends from just north of Tyler, TX northeastward to near Texarkana and then continues into Memphis, TN. Dew points remain in the lower 70s early this morning ahead of the frontal boundary. Expecting this frontal boundary to retreat back to the northwest through the day today. Short range model guidance is once again suggesting that thunderstorms will begin to develop across the DFW metroplex by this afternoon and gradually push eastward into our region into the evening hours. Thinking that large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat for today across our region. That being said, as thunderstorms develop to our west, I think there will be a timeframe where tornadoes will be possible, mainly across northeast Texas where the SPC has an Enhanced Risk from basically Smith/Gregg counties northward into Red River county. Areas along and north of I-20 remain in a Slight Risk while some of our southern zones are in a Marginal Risk. Storm mode looks to be isolated in nature during initiation before congealing into more of a line as it moves into far northeast Texas, which is when the damaging wind threat will be greatest. Storms will linger into the overnight hours, again diminishing before sunrise or pushing east of our area by then. Another round of severe weather will be possible on Sunday, however, things have trended that this will mainly be for areas along and north of I-30, with the remainder of the area remaining mostly dry. Thinking that the strongest storms could remain out of our area on Sunday, the current D2 Slight Risk just touches Red River County in northeast Texas and then McCurtain County in southeast Oklahoma. While all modes of severe weather will be possible, large hail and damaging winds appear to be the greatest threat for our area. Temperatures today will range from the mid 80s to lower 90s across the region. Tonight will remain mild with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s followed by another warm day on Sunday. /33/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Sunday will not be the last day of severe weather potential in our area as there will be another round possible on Monday. Once again this threat will be greatest across the far northwest portion of the forecast area of northeast Texas, southwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Again all modes of severe weather will be possible with this system although some details on timing and location will need to be refined some. To follow the theme, models are hinting that we could see yet another round of weather on Tuesday as a cold front finally pushes through the area to clear out the current redundant pattern we are in. Following the passage of the cold front, drier conditions and cooler temperatures will settle in for the rest of the week and into the early weekend. There is some indication of some moisture return into the weekend, but again, much discrepancy at the moment that will need to be figured out. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Convection exiting SE AR and NE LA attm may still be close enough to cause MLU a few headaches before we wait until later this evening and overnight for the next round of storms. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings should give way to VFR conditions by late morning and through much of the afternoon. Kept VCTS going for all but the LFK terminal through the evening and overnight hours in anticipation of a complex of storms that should impact our airspace out of NC Texas this afternoon. Obviously, look for much lower VSBY and a return to at least MVFR VSBYs and ceilings with convection. 13 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this evening, mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor with any severe thunderstorms that develop. Similarly, timing of severe thunderstorms is likely late Saturday afternoon into the evening over much of the same area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 93 73 92 75 / 20 40 10 10 MLU 92 73 91 73 / 30 30 10 10 DEQ 90 66 83 69 / 30 40 30 20 TXK 93 70 88 72 / 30 50 30 20 ELD 92 68 88 70 / 20 50 30 20 TYR 90 72 90 73 / 40 50 20 10 GGG 92 72 90 73 / 40 40 20 10 LFK 93 73 93 74 / 10 20 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...13 ####018005595#### FXUS63 KDDC 171648 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1148 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms possible on Saturday - An increasing uncertainty in the thunderstorm forecast on Sunday - Thunderstorms possible on Monday, with all three days having severe weather potential && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 07z surface observations and upper air analysis shows a strong upper low near the Great Lakes which is bringing cold air across the northern plains and the leading edge of the colder air has moved to near the highway 50 corridor in southwest Kansas. 850 mb temperatures behind the front have fallen to around 12 (C) while ahead of the front it is at 18 (C) so not the strongest baroclinic zone at this point. Winds are also diminishing as a surface high builds in northern Kansas. Upper level winds are generally west to southwesterly with a trough moving into the desert southwest. Today thunderstorm chances will primarily depend on the position of the cold front and how much return flow of moisture can make it into Kansas by the late afternoon. HREF ensembles and short term models have the setup with the frontal boundary ranging from near the Kansas-Oklahoma border to closer to the Oklahoma-Texas border in the panhandles. A surface low looks to develop in northeast New Mexico by the late afternoon as the upper level winds turn more southwesterly and a 700 mb shortwave enters into the area. By around 21Z CAMs are showing isolated thunderstorm development ranging from portions of northwest and north central Oklahoma to south central Kansas by evening. A few CAMs also have some isolated storms developing near the low in southeast Colorado but given the lack of moisture these thunderstorms don't look to last long if they do develop. The best area of moisture in Kansas looks to be south and east of Dodge City into the Red Hills and these areas will have the best (albeit low chances of 20%) opportunity for thunderstorms. With good lower level shear and marginal CAPE these thunderstorms will primarily have a large hail threat with a lesser wind and tornado threat. Sunday the thunderstorm forecast is ripe with more uncertainty from the previous night's forecast and was also addressed in the previous daytime forecast discussion. Depending on the thunderstorm development Saturday night will determine where the stationary frontal boundary or residual outflow boundaries will set up during the night. Elsewhere the surface low in southeast Colorado will continue to deepen as the approaching negative longwave trough moves into the Rockies and with southwest winds resulting from the counterclockwise surface flow a dryline should be setting up in far western Kansas by morning. Ahead of the warm front we should see good moisture flow through the night in south central Kansas that low stratus will develop with possibly some fog and/or drizzle for areas along and east of highway 183 on Sunday morning. The main question in thunderstorm development is how long the low clouds hang around through the day, how strong the cap will be ahead of the dryline, and where the areas of sun will be long enough to erode the cap. Latest trends in the HREF show the greatest probabilities of weakening of the cap will be for areas south and east of Dodge City and as you go north and east of Dodge City the clouds and cooler temperatures stay locked in until mid to late afternoon. This sets the stage for supercell thunderstorm development to be moreso from an Ashland to Larned line on east and several CAM solutions seem to be latching onto this trend. If any supercells develop they will have a very favorable environment for large to giant hail (2-4 inches in diameter) as hodographs are curved in the low levels and straight in the anvil layer. Tornado threat increases after 00Z as the 850 mb winds increase to 40-45 kts. Storms should quickly exit Dodge City's CWA by 03Z and an ongoing severe weather setup continues into central Kansas. Monday the slow moving longwave trough and closed low enters into the central and northern plains. Most of the area should be dry during the day and then late afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop in northwest and north central Kansas as the best area of lift in the mid levels enters into the region with a strong cold front also moving into southwest Kansas. The severe threat on Monday will be more tied into the storms being near the vicinity of the upper low while the better moisture will be in central Kansas as models have the higher dewpoints in these areas. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 VFR conditions are expected at the start of the TAF period with east/southeast winds at 15-20 KTs and gusts up to 25 KTs. Around 10z, enough moisture is expected to reach SW Kansas for low stratus and potentially fog to develop. The lower cloud cover is expected to impact all TAF sites with MVFR flight conditions forecast and as low as IFR with the fog most likely for GCK and DDC. LBL may remain at VFR through the period with ceilings close to MVFR thresholds. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...KBJ