####018007406#### FXUS64 KEPZ 160935 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 335 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy Saturday, then windy again Sunday/Monday with widespread blowing dust and critical fire danger. West winds 25 to 35 mph. - Dry weather through the week ahead as lowland temperatures warm to the mid-to-upper nineties by Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Streaming high clouds today, especially over west Texas southward toward Big Bend. Temperatures right near normal with lowland highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph this afternoon, with light breezes. Yet another round of strong winds ahead this weekend as southwest flow aloft increases. Prevailing weather pattern shows a longwave trough over the Western U.S. and two jet streaks rounding the base of the system Sunday and Monday. Flow actually begins increasing Saturday afternoon with lee surface low formation over NE New Mexico. Looking at southwest winds in the 20 to 30 mph range midday, below wind headline criteria but certainly enough to pick up blowing dust along the International Border and I-10/US-54 corridors. Wind gusts will be strongest over the Sacramento Mountains, where we could see gusts up to 50 mph on Saturday. First shortwave is timed to round the trough base Sunday afternoon, with a 65-knot jet streak at 500 mb. Once again, we remain below Wind Advisory criteria at this time, but we really don't need it for dust hazards. WSW winds 25 to 35 mph will be most common, most evenly spread across the forecast area. Blowing dust and high fire danger are the main concerns. Used a blend of NBM75 and CONSMOS to increase forecast winds slightly these days. This blend has verified quite well this season with previous wind events. Right now, Monday looks to be the strongest wind of the three days, attributed to a 80-knot jet streak cutting across New Mexico and a 993-mb surface low over the Texas panhandle, closer to our region than Sunday and thus resulting in a tighter surface pressure gradient. We may need wind headlines for Monday afternoon as sustained speeds approach Advisory criteria and some of the high terrain/east slopes locations show wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range. Once again, widespread blowing dust will impact the El Paso and Las Cruces area. We will likely need Dust Advisories/Warnings. One thing helping reduce dust risk is the due west wind direction Monday afternoon, which may keep much of the Chihuahuan dust sources south of the border. Upper low finally exits next Tuesday, ushering in a pattern change. Much quieter weather is expected the rest of next week, with lighter winds and continued dry conditions. Building high pressure aloft will induce a warming trend, which certainly indicates a warm Memorial Day weekend. Forecast models are showing lowland highs in the upper 90s, and it's not too unlikely that El Paso will make an attempt at 100 degrees (which we typically reach for the first time in late May anyway). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions expected through the period with SKC-SCT250...BKN- OVC250 over Hudspeth County. Also some blowing dust possible until 02Z over El Paso/Hudspeth Counties, though may just result in some hazy skies. Surface winds west 10-15G25 knots until 03Z, then west/northwest AOB 8 knots. Winds increasing again after 18Z to southwest/west 12-17G25 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Near Critical fire danger on Friday due to the very dry conditions. Min RH 5-10% with seasonal temperatures. Afternoon winds below critical thresholds southwest 10 to 15 mph. Critical to Extreme fire risk this weekend as winds pick back up. No change RH each day, reaching single-digits most areas. Breezy winds Saturday may warrant a Red Flag, in particular for LNF/Sacramento Mountains. Red Flags will be needed area wide Sunday and Monday due to windy conditions. Lighter winds Tuesday through the rest of the week. No precipitation is expected through Memorial Day weekend. Fuel conditions are closer to normal after some late April precipitation, but the next few days will accelerate the drying of fine fuels. Forest understory and grasslands will be susceptible to fire start and spread Sunday/Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 66 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 84 61 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 85 55 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 86 58 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 63 45 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 87 56 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 77 49 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 87 54 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 84 52 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 87 66 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 88 60 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 92 64 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 80 61 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 89 63 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 85 60 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 87 65 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 86 55 85 51 / 0 0 10 0 Hatch 88 56 87 51 / 0 0 10 0 Columbus 88 61 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 84 58 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 76 51 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 74 48 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 72 45 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 78 43 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 84 52 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 85 51 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 79 45 76 43 / 0 0 10 0 Hurley 81 48 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 84 47 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 79 46 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 81 51 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 86 53 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 85 53 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 86 53 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 79 53 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt ####018009068#### FXUS62 KMHX 160937 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 537 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Inland troughing is expected today, followed by a cold front passage on Saturday. High pressure then builds in late in the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 200 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES - Another conditional risk of severe weather late - Humid with above normal heat Yesterday's severe thunderstorms formed on the periphery of a stout mid/upper level ridge that has been anchored over the Southeast U.S. That ridge is forecast to build a bit further north today, with an even stronger cap expected compared to yesterday. Meanwhile, heating of a moist boundary layer beneath a stout EML plume will once again support an area of moderate to strong instability over ENC, with MLCAPE reaching, or exceeding, 3000j/kg. The majority of deterministic guidance suggests a moderate to strong cap will remain in place through the day, which would be a significant limiting factor for sustained deep convection. Not all guidance shows this, though. Adding to the limitations is the mid/upper ridging near the region, providing an area of large-scale subsidence. The effect of ridging may be short-lived, though, as guidance suggests the ridge will flatten late in the day as an upper trough pivots east across the Ohio Valley. What appears likely is that there will be several clusters of severe thunderstorms well upstream associated with the upper trough. Guidance differs on the evolution of these clusters of storms, but upscale growth, and the upper pattern, favors one, or more, MCS' translating east from the OH/TN Valleys to the Mid- Atlantic/Carolinas. This convection will encounter the strong cap mentioned above, making it unclear whether or not convection can survive all the way to ENC. Should sufficient erosion of the cap occur, as some guidance suggests, there would be sufficient shear and instability to support MCS maintenance and an attendant risk of damaging winds. Some hail could occur as well, but wind appears to be the primary risk. Stay tuned for updates through the day on this potential. For now, we'll continue to hold with a low chance of thunderstorms focused north of HWY 70. This is also where the cap may be the "weakest", and where the greatest risk of severe weather would be focused. Otherwise, moderate to strong heating, plus warming thicknesses, beneath the ridge should support highs reaching the 90s inland, and 80s along the coast. With dewpoints in the 60s and 70s, this should allow the "feels like" temperature to reach the mid to upper 90s for much of the area. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES - Conditional severe thunderstorm risk may linger into tonight The mid/upper level ridge over the region will continue to get flattened tonight as an upper trough shifts east from the OH Valley to the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Guidance suggests multiple MCS' may be ongoing upstream of ENC, and the environment may support some continuation of this activity into the eastern Carolinas with an associated risk of gusty to damaging winds. Given the expectation of a strong cap in place, any MCS may tend to weaken with time as it approaches the area, but stay tuned for updates on this potential. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 0430 Friday...A series of weak cold fronts pushes through the area this weekend with a more significant system to impact the area late next week. Weekend...Upper low over Great Lakes drifts Eward toward New England coast with ridging over the Gulf remaining in place. Hot again on Saturday in downsloping flow, pushing highs into the lower or mid 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s leading to heat indices in the mid 90s. Line of showers and storms associated with the front approaching from the from the W forecast to dissipate before crossing over I95. However, guidance shows the clearing early Saturday will allow ample time for destabilization thanks to strong warm up. Continue to carry SChc- Chc showers/tstorms when the prefrontal trough environment begins to interact with the the seabreeze in the afternoon and early evening hours. SBCAPE on the order of 2-3kJ/kg with bulk shear>40-50kt shows potential for tstorm organization that could lead to damaging wind gusts and large hail should cells be able to flourish. The front is forecast to slowly sink S of the FA through Sunday before stalling over the region. Next week...Quiet and relatively cool compared to the weekend earlyweek with downsloping NWerly flow aloft between the departing low and shortwave ridging briefly amplifying over SECONUS. The next vertically stacked low to dig toward the Carolinas midweek upping cloudiness and rain chances again through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Saturday/... As of 130 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES - Low confidence TSRA risk over the next 24 hrs Mid to upper level ridging will be nosing into the area today, with some subsidence and a fairly stout cap. It will be sufficiently unstable for TSRA, but ridging and the cap calls into question whether or not TSRA will impact ENC over the next 24 hrs. For now, we'll keep a VFR TAF going for all terminals given the low confidence forecast. The focus through Friday night will be TSRA well upstream across the TN and OH Valleys. Some guidance suggests this activity will survive the trek across the Appalachians and the piedmont of the Carolinas, eventually reaching ENC late Friday afternoon or Friday evening. Should this scenario play out, the environment appears supportive of strong wind gusts of 30-50kt+ and sub-VFR conditions. Stay tuned for updates with later updates in case confidence were to increase regarding the TSRA potential. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 0400 Friday...Series of weak cold fronts push through the FA this weekend bringing chances of showers and tstorms which represent subVFR potential. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 130 AM Friday... KEY MESSAGES - Breezy winds and elevated seas to continue through tonight - The thunderstorm risk appears generally lower through tonight A modest pressure gradient across the area this morning will tighten later today through tonight, supporting a continuation of modest southwesterly flow (10-20kt) across area waters. For the coastal waters, this will keep seas elevated (3-5 ft). In general, the thunderstorm risk appears much lower today compared to yesterday. That said, at least some guidance suggests a cluster of thunderstorms may impact the central and northern waters later today through this evening. Should this occur, there would be an increased risk of 30-50kt+ wind gusts. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 0430 Friday...SCA issued for Saturday afternoon-Sunday morning. Boating conditions deteriorate Saturday ahead of the next cold front to cross area waters leading to SCA conditions in SWerly 15-25G30kt winds SAT afternoon and evening. Secondary backdoor front sinks S across waters late Sunday. High pressure builds in with Nerly surge late SUN night/MON AM. Generally 10-15kt winds slowly through early week N-NEerly Tuesday becoming Eerly Wednesday as offshore high departs SEward and next low approaches from the W. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for May 16th, Friday. LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/1933 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1994 and 1991 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 94/1962 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 89/1995 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1998 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for May 17th, Saturday. LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/1941 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 86/1991 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 95/1915 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 85/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/1990 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...CEB/RJ AVIATION...RM/CEB MARINE...RM/CEB CLIMATE...MHX ####018006346#### FXUS65 KPUB 160937 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 337 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers across the central mountains today, otherwise warm and dry with slightly less wind expected. - Warming temperatures and breezy winds through the weekend. - Precipitation chances increase across the mountain Sunday, and the entire area on Monday as a system moves through. Wettest over and near our southeast mountains. - Another warm/dry trend for the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Currently...Upper shortwave crossing the Rocky Mt region early this morning produced some gusty west to northwest winds across the forecast area yesterday evening, as well as some ongoing light snow showers for the central mts. Temps as of 1 AM have cooled into the 30s for the high valleys, 40s and 50s for the eastern plains. Today and tonight...More of a quiet pattern settles in for the short term, as the flow aloft eases due to a lessening pressure gradient and lack of a prominent shortwave. The flow aloft will shift from the northwest to a more westerly direction through the day today, then become more southwesterly tonight. Models do hint at a few very isolated showers over the central mountains today, first early this morning as some residual activity diminishes, then firing back up around 1 or 2 PM and lasting for a few hours. Any activity that does occur is expected to be short-lived, with new snow accumulations generally less than an inch over the higher terrain of Lake and Chaffee counties. Otherwise, surface winds are forecast to be slightly lighter than previous days, 10 to 20 mph through the afternoon with occasional gusts to 25 mph, and near-critical fire weather conditions will be so spotty that further mention is not needed at this point. Clouds will be on the increase by midday, but overall a nice Spring day is on tap with normal temperatures forecast. Look for highs in the 60s for the high valleys and 70s to around 80F for the plains. Tonight overnight lows will dip into the 30s for the high valleys and 40s for the plains. Moore && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 On Saturday, increasing southwest flow will set in aloft as an upper trough digs down to our west. Temperatures will continue to warm, with highs over the eastern plains hitting the low-80s while the valleys see low-mid 70s. Looking at winds, gusty southwest flow will persist over the higher terrain, while lee cyclogenesis brings in breezy southeast winds to the plains. Models do show some moisture advection, and possibly some instability, into northern CO. However, our area still appears too dry to expect much in the way of convection. A few weak, isolated thunderstorms may be possible in the afternoon over the Palmer Divide, and a smaller chance for a storm or two southeast towards Baca County along a weak boundary, but that would be about it. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered showers are expected over the peaks of the Continental Divide once again. Looking later in the weekend and into next week, models have been rather consistent in the evolution of the upper-level pattern. A split system will dig down in the embedded trough over the western CONUS, sending one area of low pressure just north of us while the other moves to our south. On Sunday, the first half of this system will move into our area. Gusty southwest winds will persist throughout most of the day, resulting in elevated fire weather concerns, though fuels are, at this time, still too green for any highlights. Gusts are expected to be frequent, and 35 mph or more, which could result in areas of blowing dust. High temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer than Saturday. The deepening trough will also bring in some more moisture along with synoptic lift, increasing the coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain, including the Palmer Divide, that should last through the night and into Monday. As we move more into next week, the initial system ejects to our northeast as the second, strong low begins moving past the Four Corners Region and into our area. While there are still some discrepancies between the different solutions, a few things have become more consistent. This secondary low will dive a bit south of the Colorado border, bringing a cold front across the plains Monday morning. Along with much cooler conditions, the system will bring ample moisture with it, bringing higher precip chances to most of southeast Colorado through Monday Night. QPF forecast is still uncertain, largely dependent on the exact track and strength of the upper low, but as of now the GFS is still more aggressive with totals compared to other deterministic guidance. Stuck with the blended solution for now until confidence increases between solutions, but generally the highest precip amounts will be over and adjacent to our southeast mountains, enhanced locally by easterly upslope flow and the passing cold front. Temperatures behind the front will leave high temps in the 60s-70s across our forecast area. Moving towards mid-week, more zonal flow takes over the pattern once again. Synoptic forcing wanes, with mainly dry and warming conditions once again, with high temperatures creeping back into the low-80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. After a brief lull this morning, winds will increase again at all three terminals from the west to northwest by late morning with gusts up to 25 kts, persisting until around 02z. Variable mid/high level cloudiness will overspread the region through the afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MOORE