####018009130#### FXUS64 KHGX 161025 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 525 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 We're only in mid May and I'm already running out of ways to say that it's hot, so let me just crack open the ol' thesaurus here and find a good word to use. Let's see...steamy is a good one since high humidity is implied...there's also sizzling but that reminds me more of fajitas than weather...oh how about this one...sweltering! Yeah we'll go with that...sweltering conditions continue as we remain under the influence of ridging aloft that will keep us at least near record temperatures...and that's for both daily high maximum temperatures and daily high minimum temperatures (looking at you Palacios). It's not all bad news though as there are some slim rain chances to discuss for our northern areas, but we'll focus on the hot topic first. High temperatures both today and Saturday will top out in the mid to upper 90s for areas along and north of I-10 with upper 80s to mid 90s south of I-10. Dew points remain VERY elevated, so we'll continue to see heat indices peaking in the 100-105°F range. The HeatRisk map through Saturday outlines most of Southeast Texas in a major risk for heat-related impacts (level 3 out of 4), so be sure to take the proper precautions to keep you and your loved ones (including your pets) safe from the heat. Heat-related illnesses typically spike during early season heat events like this...take a little bit of time to learn the signs/symptoms. There won't be much relief during the overnight hours with low temperatures only in the mid to upper 70s. As mentioned earlier, even the low temperatures will be near record territory (high minimum temperatures). Our only sources of relief other than the A/C is that we'll keep our southerly breeze going (albeit lighter than previous days) along with a slim chance for rain both this evening and Saturday evening. Latest surface analysis reveals a frontal boundary over central Texas and a dry line extending southwestward from that boundary into western Texas. These won't move all that much during the day, maybe just a bit more southward. 00Z CAM guidance is in agreement on convection firing off of either one or both of these boundaries this afternoon and drifting eastward. Like we talked about yesterday, there is a capping inversion aloft that this convection would have to battle as it moves into an area of increased subsidence. So, the main question is will these storms survive long enough to bring any rain to the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods going into the evening...and the answer is maybe? Giving it about a 15-20% chance of occuring. Can you tell how desperate we are to talk about something other than the heat that I spent nearly an entire paragraph talking about a 20% chance of rain? Yeah...that's where we're at already... More good news! Everything I just said in the above paragraph...add 24 hours to that and apply it to Saturday. The main difference is the dry line will be a bit further west, but the latest CAM guidance still has decent consensus that at least a couple of storms could survive long enough for another round low-end PoPs for our northern areas. Is this a good time to mention that winds should subside enough tonight into Saturday morning for a decent chance of patchy fog development? No? Whelp...we'll call that a mist opportunity :P TL;DR: Near record to record breaking heat continues with a slim chance of rain up north late in the day both today and Saturday. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 We will remain in a benign weather period through the long-term courtesy of a mid-level ridge stationed over the Gulf. This positioning of the high pressure system will result in continued southerly/onshore flow which will lead to prevailing hot and humid conditions. Daily highs will continue to run well above normal for this time of year Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10, low to mid 90s south of I-10 and in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. While Heat indices are projected to be in the 100-107F range inland, the position of a stalled boundary may result in a tighter pressure gradient and lead to stronger winds. This could consequently make temperatures feel slightly cooler; however, heat impacts will still be a concern. The mid-upper level trough will move across the Plains next week. This could bring slightly cooler temperatures to portions of the area; however, highs will generally be in the 90s. Another weak front is projected to stall in Central Texas, which will lead to an increase in moisture over SE Texas (PW around 1.7-2.0"). Again, this could lead to a tightening pressure gradient and stronger surface winds for Monday and Tuesday (15-20 mph). This will provide a bit of relief with heat. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible for the Brazos Valley and portions of the Piney woods region on Tuesday. Otherwise, the heat and humidity continues...continue to exercise heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity during the afternoon hours, staying hydrated, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! Adams && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 525 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MVFR ceilings will persist areawide through around 15Z when conditions will gradually improve back to VFR. There remains some potential for a small window for IFR ceilings just before sunrise along the coast. Southerly winds will be gusty again later this morning into the afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt. MVFR ceilings filter in again later this afternoon along the coast, then spread areawide going into the evening hours potentially becoming IFR at times. Decreased visibilities due to patchy will be possible as well. Another thing to note is the slim potential for isolated convection to drift near CLL/UTS after 00Z. These chances are far too low for a mention in any of the TAFs at the moment. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the period as a surface high remains parked over the Gulf. Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail at least through next Wednesday. Winds and seas could reach advisory levels at times early next week. Overall, dry and warm weather will prevail within the next 7 days. Beach and Swimming Conditions: Above average water levels are expected, especially during the high tide cycles. This could result in isolated/minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides through early this evening. The risk of rip currents also continues along all Gulf-facing beaches and will likely persist into the weekend. Adams && .CLIMATE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 With multiple days of near record to record breaking heat possible going into early next week, here's a look at the daily high temperature records through Tuesday (May 20th). May 16th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 95F (2003) - Houston/IAH: 94F (2022) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022) - Palacios: 88F (2010) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 17th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (1925) - Houston/IAH: 96F (2018) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018) - Palacios: 93F (2003) - Galveston: 90F (2020) May 18th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 98F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2022) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022) - Palacios: 89F (2022) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 19th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 94F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2003) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008) - Palacios: 89F (2024) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 20th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2020) - Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008) - Palacios: 95F (1943) - Galveston: 91F (2022) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 76 96 75 / 10 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 87 77 86 78 / 0 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-350-355. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Batiste LONG TERM....Adams AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Adams ####018005572#### FXUS62 KTAE 161027 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 627 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Upper-level ridging builds in today with high pressure nosing in over the Gulf from the western Atlantic. Thus, after some morning clouds, we'll have abundant sunshine but the heat is on again. Highs will reach the mid-90s away from the coast with upper 80s to near 90 along the coast. A muggy night is anticipated with another round of clouds and patchy fog as a weak shortwave passes through the Tennessee Valley. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Today's forecast for TLH is 96, which would break the record of 95 set in 1915 and 1962. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The ridge flattens over the weekend as a couple weak shortwaves move across the Tennessee Valley. This could bring some isolated showers and thunderstorms to the northern fringes of the forecast area, mainly north of a Dothan to Fitzgerald line. Rain chances are around 15-20% at most. We'll have to see how upstream complexes of storms evolve if they can make it this far south. The environment on Saturday is characterized by ample instability and quite a bit of DCAPE given mid-level dry air. There's also sufficient deep-layer shear on the order of 40-50 kt. Thus, if storms can make it to our area late Saturday afternoon and evening, some strong gusty winds are possible in the strongest storms. Could be a sneaky setup, and SPC does have our far northern row of Georgia counties clipped by a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. A similar environment remains in place for Sunday as well. Temperatures remain toasty with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Ridging returns again for Monday and Tuesday with heat remaining the main concern. Highs remain in the mid-90s through Tuesday. More substantial troughing begins to dig over the eastern US by the middle of the week, bringing some reprieve in temperatures. A cold will move across the southeast, bringing some scattered showers and thunderstorms to the forecast with rain chances around 30-40%. The heat, as a result, will be less oppressive with temperatures returning back to the mid to upper 80s by late week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 IFR to low-end MVFR cigs continue at all terminals this morning as an extensive stratus deck spreads over the region. Underneath, some transient patchy fog reducing vsbys to MVFR at times is possible, mainly near TLH and possibly VLD. Conditions should improve rather quickly after 14z with all sites returning to VFR. Some gusty SW winds up to 20 kt are expected at ECP and DHN this afternoon with lighter winds anticipated elsewhere. Late tonight into early Saturday morning, another round of low stratus and some patchy fog is possible at all terminals, but confidence is low. For now, have maintained MVFR conditions for all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure over the western Atlantic nosing into the eastern Gulf will result in predominantly light southwesterly winds for the next several days. Seas will be around 2 to 3 feet each day with no significant marine impacts anticipated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High dispersions are expected across inland areas over the next couple of days thanks to southwesterly transport winds around 10-15 mph and high mixing heights near 5,000 feet each afternoon. Closer to the coast, dispersions will still be good each day. The main concern will be the heat with temperatures in the mid-90s during the afternoon with heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100. A few isolated storms are possible Saturday and Sunday afternoons, mainly north of a line from Dothan to Albany. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 No flooding is expected over the next couple of days. Some locally heavy downpours are possible in some storms this weekend, but these should be quick moving and should not result in flood concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 95 69 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 85 73 85 72 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 93 71 93 71 / 0 0 10 10 Albany 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 96 69 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 90 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 72 84 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GMZ735. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Young MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Young ####018006823#### FXUS65 KRIW 161029 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 429 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A drier and milder day today with only around a 1 in 4 chance of a shower or thunderstorm in northern Wyoming. - A better chance of showers and storms Saturday, with strong storms possible over southwestern Wyoming. - Turning much cooler Sunday and Monday with rain and mountain snow across much of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Active weather will continue as we head through the next several days. We do have signs summer is coming though. The first sign is the predawn light when I go out to prepare the weather balloon for launch. This is around 4:45 am. Another sign is twilight still in the sky when I drive to work around 9:45 pm for my favorite shift, the midnight shift. (Yes, I am one of those weird people who prefers working at night). It will not feel like summer the next several days though, and some locations will feel like winter at times, especially early next week. Today looks like one of the least active days of the next several. Shortwave ridging will move across Wyoming and bring a lull in the persistent showers and storms. There will be a weak trailing shortwave that could being some showers this afternoon and evening, but these would be restricted to northern Wyoming and most of the population centers should stay mainly dry. Temperatures will also be somewhat warmer, but still only around 5 degrees below normal for most. And the shortwave will bring gusty wind to Johnson County for another day, but there should not be 60 mph gusts like yesterday. Ensemble guidance only gives a 1 in 3 chance of gusts past 40 mph for most at this time. Things start getting more active on Saturday, as an upper level low moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest and increases moisture across the area once again. Saturday should start dry for most, but coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase as the low approaches. And things may get a little interesting. There will be decent upper level divergence across the area, and some morning sunshine may destabilize the atmosphere somewhat. Lifted indices will be negative and CAPE values will increase to 500 J/kg at times across southwestern Wyoming. The Storm Prediction Center has put this portion of Wyoming under a Marginal risk, with the main threat being strong wind gusts. The most numerous storms will be across western Wyoming. In areas east of the Divide, southwesterly flow will raise some high temperatures to around 70 degrees. It is also likely to keep most areas dry most of the time, with the average chance of a shower or thunderstorm around 1 out of 4 in this area. The aforementioned upper level low will then dive southeastward through the weekend and into Monday, with lee cyclogenesis likely occurring Sunday night into Monday in eastern Colorado and lifting into the Plains, with another upper level low developing over the western states. As a result showers will become more numerous across the area on Sunday, with another chance of afternoon thunderstorms, this time with thunder mainly east of the Divide where the best instability will be. And this will be the day we may make a transition back into winter for some locations. As flow turns northerly behind the low, much colder air will move in. Some model guidance drops 700 millibar temperatures as low as minus 5C across western Wyoming Sunday night, and this could lead to snow levels falling as low as 6000 to 6500 feet, possibly bring a coating of snow to the western valleys. The colder air then spreads east of the Divide Sunday night and especially Monday. And this is where the bulk of the precipitation will be that day. The air won't be quite as cold here, with 700 millibar temperatures generally bottoming out at around minus 7C, which would put snow levels around 5000 feet. And, given the position of the low and north-northeasterly flow, the Bighorns would be the most impacted area. Some probabilities for over 6 inches of snow include around 3 out of 4 in the higher elevations of the Bighorns and Wind River Range, with about a 3 out of 5 chance in the Tetons and Absarokas through Monday night. Chances of a foot are generally only 1 out of 2 at the very highest elevations so if highlights are needed it would likely be Advisories. This also looks to be a wet storm, with most locations east of the Divide and the northern mountains having at least a 1 out of 2 chance of a half an inch or more of QPF and favored north- northeast upslope locations like Buffalo, Thermopolis and Lander having a 1 in 2 chance of an inch of QPF or more. As for flooding, areas northeast of a Casper to Cody line have a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Sunday and areas along and east of Interstate 25 have one for Monday. The rain will fall over a fairly long period though. In addition, with the colder air moving in, rain on snow is not likely as the higher elevations would see mainly snow. We will watch it though. Monday will be the coldest day of the week, with many locations having highs in the 40s. We should begin to dry out as the low moves away on Tuesday, although some lingering moisture will keep a few showers around, especially in eastern Wyoming. Flat ridging should then hold for the rest of the period, bringing more seasonal temperatures. Another shortwave may bring some showers and storms by midweek, but timing is all over the place this far out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 428 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Decreasing high clouds FL200-250 over the Bighorns and Johnson County this morning, with increasing clouds from the west through 18Z FL050-120. Showers, along and north of a KJAC-KCOD line will be possible through the afternoon and early evening, becoming confined over Yellowstone NP by 02Z and ending between 09Z and 12Z Saturday. Conditions are likely to remain VFR (>60%) at KJAC and KCOD if a shower does move over the terminal. Otherwise, wind gusts of 20-25 kt will develop at terminals west of the Divide, as well as KCPR, between 15Z-20Z. These winds will subside by 02Z. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hattings AVIATION...LaVoie