####018006313#### FXUS62 KILM 161041 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 641 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures, with near record highs possible, are expected through Sat. A weak cold front accompanied with isolated convection at best will track across to south of the area late Saturday night. Dry weather and near normal temps to carry on thru Wed, however by the mid-week period of next week, the next storm system may affect the FA with unsettled weather. && .UPDATE... No changes to the forecast with the early morning update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Somewhat deep west to northwest (early) flow will remain in place across the area today. Near record to record highs are expected for afternoon highs with only Florence (95 forecast...record 93) at least at this point explicitly in record territory. The next candidate to break a record is Lumberton (94 forecast...record 96) as the coastal areas may see a race between the resultant sea breeze which will be decent as the westerly flow isn't the strongest I have seen and the warmth. For tonight into Saturday morning expect warm and dry conditions to continue with lows in the lower to perhaps only middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Breezy conditions slated for Sat as a sfc trof across the central Carolinas gets displaced by a sfc cold front driving ESE. This aided by an upper low over the Great Lakes and associated upper trof axis extending south of it, all pushing to the East. By Sun daybreak the upper low will be over the NE States with its trof axis extending south across the area. This will help drive a cold front across the FA likely sat aftn and night. It'll likely stall just south of the FA as it becomes aligned parallel with the flow aloft. Models do scour a good chunk of moisture after crossing the Appalachians leaving mainly clouds associated with its passage. Eventhough POPS will be 20% at best, the isolated convection that does develop will immediately have the potential to go severe given the avbl instability and shear. Max temps in the 90s Sat will have the potential to reach record levels across a few of our climatic sites. Later Sun thru Sun night, building upper ridge axis along the MIssissippi River Valley and the upper trof axis off the SE STates Coast will result in NW flow aloft. Could see an embedded vort within this NW flow push across the FA Sun aftn resulting in a possibility of raising POPs across the FA. Not entirely bought on this given previous model runs kept it south of the FA. Sun max temps a few degrees cooler than Sat maxes. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The FA will be more under the influence of the upper ridging across the Central U.S. with the upper trof axis remaining well offshore from the FA. NW flow aloft will continue Mon thru Tue with yet another embedded vort s/w trof that possibly drops across the FA within NW flow. Once again, confidence remains low given the back and forth progged movement/strength of this feature. Nevertheless, a reflection of it will be the cloudiness being invoked into the fcst. Late Tue into Wed the upper ridge axis pushes off the SE States Coast followed by a sharpening/amplifying upper trof across the Eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. This has been advertised by models, however the remain wishy-washy with any Pop threat. At this point will cap Pops in the low to possibly modest chance during the mid-week period. Temps this period will start above normal then drop back to near or below normal depending how much of that Canadian airmass infiltrates the FA. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, as a building mid-level ridge keeps convection suppressed. A touch of MVFR BR has developed in Wilmington this morning but should be gone in a matter of minutes. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Southwest winds which have probably reached their peak just north of 15 knots will continue today in a range of 10-15 knots. Speeds will diminish slightly tonight before the low level jetting once again sees an uptick. Significant seas will see a narrow range of 3-4 feet today dropping in a subtle nature to 2-4 feet later tonight into Saturday AM. Saturday through Tuesday Night...Tightened sfc pg will be ongoing to start Sat off. Inland sfc trof will be replaced by a SE-ward dropping cold front Sat aftn. This front should push off the mainland and thru the local waters mainly Sat night. Could see tstorm activity spring up after pushing off the coasts, as it interacts with the Gulf Stream. Winds Sat into Sat night will flirt with SCA 25+ kt wind gusts. The sfc pg will relax after FROPA and remain-so thru Mon night, resulting in reduced wind speeds to aob 10 kt. Wind directions will be the problem child during this period. By Tue, some organization of the pressure field as well as some tightening of the gradient. Seas start at 2-4 ft with 5 footers possible. Mainly looking at wind driven waves at 5 or less second periods becoming dominant with an underlying small but identifiable SE swell at 8+ second periods. && .CLIMATE... High temperature records may be challenged Friday and Saturday as anomalously warm air overspreads the region ahead of a cold front. Record highs for our four climate sites are as follows: For Friday, May 16th... Wilmington, NC: 94F (1915) Lumberton, NC: 96F (1962, 1941) Florence, SC: 93F (2022) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 91F (1941) Saturday, May 17th... Wilmington, NC: 92F (1960, 1990) Lumberton, NC: 96F (1941) Florence, SC: 93F (1977) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 92F (1941) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH UPDATE...15 NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...SHK MARINE...DCH/SHK CLIMATE... ####018006616#### FXUS61 KILN 161042 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 642 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will fuel the development of thunderstorms today. The potential exists for some of the storms to be severe late this afternoon into tonight. Cooler temperatures and drier weather will follow heading into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid level ridge axis has shifted east of the area leaving a strong southwesterly flow aloft. ILN/s area has remained capped which has inhibited convective development overnight. Convection is developing in the lower Ohio Valley and some of the CAM solutions show this activity advecting northeast affecting our southern counties this morning. Given moderate elevated instby that already exists - can not rule out the potential for hail from some of the stronger updrafts. Main focus today is the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak. In the warm sector strong instability is expected to develop today with SBCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg. This combined with increasing deep layer shear (effective shear around 60 kts) will lead to the threat for strong to severe storms. CAM solutions continue to show a very good signal for storm development to our west - which organizes into bowing segments as they move eastward into the Ohio Valley. This complex of strong to severe storms is expected to impact the area late this afternoon into this evening. Exact timing is still somewhat uncertain but the greatest impacts look to occur as early as 5 pm across eastern Indiana/southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky and then spread quickly east across the area thru the evening. All severe weather hazards are possible from these storms. The greatest threat area for significant severe weather is across the Cincinnati Tri-state region. There is also the possibility of locally heavy rain which could result in flash flooding. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and a plan in place should a warning be issued. In the humid airmass high temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 80s. Southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Storms diminishing quickly late this evening into the overnight hours. A low pop shower or storm threat will continue across the far northern counties overnight in response to a shortwave rotating around the upper low moving into the Great Lakes. Lows tonight range from near 60 north to the lower 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Mid and upper level low pressure to track thru Great Lakes on Saturday. Shortwave energy rotating around this low will lead to a low chance of a shower and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm across the extreme northeast counties. In the wake of a surface cold front southwest to west winds to gust up to 30 mph. In less humid and cooler conditions high temperatures to range from the upper 60s northwest to the upper 70s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A building upper ridge in the Plains will result in increasing heights over the Ohio Valley through at least Monday evening. The ridge axis still remains to the w over WI although heights in our area will level out with the amplitude of the ridge decreasing in response to encroaching low pressure from the west. Models begin to diverge Tues afternoon, leading to lower confidence in mass fields beyond this time. The next threat of rainfall will occur in the southwest Monday morning as a strong lobe of s/w energy undercuts the upper level ridge and then tracks se in the mean downstream upper flow. Overnight Monday and Tuesday stand the best chance for widespread rain affecting the entire CWA as a surface warm front sets up w-e near the Ohio River. At this time, upper level ridge weakens and s/w energy continues to race eastward across CWA. A surface low will follow the warm front eastward and into the CWA. Placement and timing differences are noted but the overall picture is that the low will be situated over the CWA, bringing an increased potential for widespread rainfall. Sfc low moves east, but axis of the upper low has yet to cross the Ohio Valley and a lingering potential for rain exists through Wed. A seasonable temperature range is dominant in the forecast. Highs in the low-mid 70s Sun drop to the upper 60s/low 70s Mon, slightly cooler by 1-3 deg Tues. Northwest flow at the end of the forecast has highs in the mid 60s Wed, and near 60 Thurs. Overnight lows take a similar trajectory with low-mid 50s Sat/Sun nights, upper 40s to upper 50s Mon night, low-mid 50s Tues night, near 50 Wed night and in the upper 40s Thurs night. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid level ridge axis has shifted east of the area leaving strong southwesterly flow aloft. An embedded shortwave will lead to scattered morning showers/thunderstorms which should stay mainly south of the TAF sites. Will have to watch KCVG and KLUK as these storms continue to develop but for now have left this morning potential out of the TAF forecast. In the warm sector strong instability is expected to develop today with SBCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg. This combined with increasing deep layer shear will lead to the threat for strong to severe storms late in the day into this evening. CAM solutions continue to show a very good signal for storm development to our west - which organizes as it moves eastward into the Ohio Valley. This complex of strong to severe storms is expected to impact the TAF/s late in the day into this evening. Exact timing is still somewhat uncertain but the greatest impacts look to occur as early as 22Z across KCVG and KLUK thru about 03Z at KCMH/KLCK. All severe weather hazards are possible from these storms. Expect VFR conditions until storms develop with LIFR conditions in storms. Storms end later this evening with VFR conditions continuing overnight as drier air begins to advect into the region. Surface winds increase out of the southwest with sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts up to 25 kts. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...AR ####018007076#### FXUS61 KCAR 161042 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 642 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will settle across Northern Maine today. Low pressure will slowly cross the area Saturday through Sunday, then slowly exit to the east Monday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6:40 AM Update...Based on latest guidance, decided to increase high temperatures by a couple of degrees over western areas today. Otherwise, forecast remains on track at this time. Isolated rain showers have developed in the North Woods. Expect these to become more numerous later today. Previous Discussion... Widespread fog at the Downeast coast early this morning, with areas of fog northward to the Central Highlands. Some patchy fog further north as well, especially in areas that saw rain showers yesterday. This fog will burn off in most places by mid- morning. The exception could be the Downeast coast, where at least patchy fog could persist much of the day. Otherwise, the main feature today will be a backdoor cold front that will get hung up over the Central Highlands this afternoon. The front will become the focus for shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon into this evening. The threat area looks to be from around Moosehead Lake towards Baxter State Park and the North Woods. Model soundings show a tall, skinny CAPE profile, and almost no storm motion. This favors thunderstorms that move slowly (if at all) and produce heavy rainfall. As such, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed these areas in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. The shower and thunderstorm threat will end later this evening as instability diminishes with the loss of daytime heating. Eastern Aroostook County is expected to be behind the front, and under a cooler maritime air mass. This will likely preclude any thunderstorm development, but a few showers are possible. South to southeast winds will prevent more than an isolated rain shower for Bangor and Downeast today. High temperatures are forecast to reach the lower to mid 70s from around Katahdin south and west away from the coast. Areas north and east of Katahdin are expected to see highs remain in the 60s. The coast will see highs in the 50s to lower 60s with onshore flow. Patchy to areas of fog will be a concern once again tonight south of Katahdin. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s along the New Brunswick border and at the coast. Elsewhere, expect lower to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... An occluded front will continue to lift northeastwards through the forecast area during the day on Saturday. This area of lift will spur rain showers throughout the region through the day. Most rain showers will be on the lighter side, though some more moderate rainfall is quite possible, especially along the immediate boundary and associated with any mesoscale boundaries that may develop through the day. The center of the occluded low will likely enter the forecast area Saturday night, then slowly cross the region from west to east through the day on Sunday. As the center pushes through, steadier rain is likely, with light to moderate rainfall through the night. By Sunday, the center of the low pressure should be moving out into the Canadian Maritimes, with showers continuing to wrap around the backside of the low through the day. Rain showers will likely continue across the entire forecast area through the day on Sunday as well as through the night Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As the occluded low continues to slowly churn off into the Canadian Maritimes, rain showers will likely continue to wrap around into the forecast area Monday through Tuesday. NW flow with the cold conveyor belt wrapping around the backside of the departing low will lead to temperatures falling below average, and will remain so through the middle of the week. Shower activity may lessen into the day on Wednesday, but as an upper level trough remains over the area, even though there is a break between two systems, there could still be enough instability for diurnal showers to develop. The next low pressure system could approach the area from the southwest into the day on Thursday. Of the global deterministic guidance suite, the CMC is the slowest with this system. In fact, the CMC has further slowed the system in the recent 00z run such that the area remains under local narrow ridging on Thursday. The other solution that most other guidance is locked onto brings a low near or over the area on Thursday, with another round of rain and the possibility for increased winds as the low could rapidly deepen through or just south of the Gulf of Maine. All that said, at this time range either of these solutions remain in play, and great uncertainty remains at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Southern Terminals: LIFR at BGR and Downeast terminals through 13-14z this morning with FG. Conditions then improve to MVFR, with low VFR possible at BGR this PM. Periods of IFR still possible at coastal terminals through the day with BCFG. IFR/LIFR expected once again tonight with FG. S-SE winds 5-10 kts today and tonight. Northern Terminals: Mainly VFR through 14-16z from PQI northward. IFR/LIFR at HUL with low clouds and BCFG through 14-16z. Then mainly MVFR through tonight with VCSH. Periods of IFR possible, especially at FVE. E-SE winds 5-15 kts today and tonight. SHORT TERM: Sat - Sun: IFR in rain. Brief LIFR fog possible at coastal terminals through Sat. SE winds 5 to 10 kts shifting N Sun. Sun night - Mon night: MVFR with brief IFR possible in lingering showers, particularly at northern terminals. N winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts. Tues: MVFR with gradual improvement towards VFR possible. N winds 5 to 15 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain well below Small Craft Advisory criteria today and tonight. Widespread fog will reduce visibility on the waters to 1/4 NM or lower early this morning and again tonight. Patchy fog will reduce visibility on the waters to 1 to 3 NM this afternoon. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain well below small craft advisory levels through the weekend and into early next week. Fog is likely to remain over the waters Saturday through Sunday. Additionally, scattered rain showers becoming more steady could also lead to a decrease in visibility. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ011- 015>017-029>032. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Clark Short Term...AStrauser Long Term...AStrauser Aviation...Clark/AStrauser Marine...Clark/AStrauser ####018010497#### FXUS64 KFWD 161043 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 543 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms (30-50% chance) are expected this afternoon and evening roughly along and east of I-35. Some thunderstorms could become severe with primarily a large hail threat. - Scattered storms (40-60% chance) will be possible each afternoon and evening Saturday through Monday. A few storms may be severe (5-15% chance). - A cold front on Tuesday will knock temperatures back down to near or slightly below normal for the middle of next work week, with afternoon highs dropping into the upper 70s/low 80s. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Overnight guidance continues to support the initiation of scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon along a stalled frontal zone which will be draped through western/northwestern portions of the CWA during peak heating. While our far northwestern zones will remain on the cooler and drier side of the boundary, the rest of the CWA will be positioned within an extremely unstable and moderately sheared buoyant sector supportive of severe convection, with splitting supercells capable of large hail being the primary hazard today. Coverage remains uncertain as there likely will still be some weak capping in place by late afternoon, but at least a few strong to severe thunderstorms should be able to get established within the confines of the forecast area by late afternoon and evening. Another round of more widespread thunderstorms is expected Saturday. The details below in the previous short term forecast remain on track, with a few PoP refinements being the extent of changes necessary with this morning's update. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday/ An active couple of days lie ahead with a dryline and quasi- stationary front resulting in a few rounds of strong/severe thunderstorms heading into the weekend. Stark thermodynamic contrast exists on either side of a nearly stationary surface front draped SW-NE through the forecast area early this morning, with dewpoints in the 50s on the northern side of the boundary and as high as the mid 70s within the warm sector airmass to the south. This front is associated with a Northern Plains and Great Lakes low pressure system, and therefore will have little/no encouragement to make significant headway out of the forecast area during the next ~36 hours. It should pivot slightly northwestward during the daytime today, before resulting in isolated convective initiation mainly along and east of I-35 by mid-afternoon. Since upper-level forcing is largely absent, thunderstorm development would be the result of convergence along the boundary amid extreme instability and steep mid-level lapse rates, and this would likely only offer isolated convective coverage. That being said, any thunderstorms would easily be able to become severe in the presence of 4000-5000 SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear to support supercell structures. Large hail will be the primary threat, with damaging winds being a secondary hazard. While tornado potential is never zero when surface-based supercells exist, this potential is on the low side today due to rather straight hodographs and weak low- level flow/shear which will greatly limit helicity in the lowest 1 km. The severe threat should be maximized roughly from the DFW Metroplex east and south between 3-8 PM before convective intensity wanes after nightfall. There is also a small- probability scenario where no convection is able to develop due to capping this afternoon, although the odds of a null event for our CWA today appear rather slim. Additional severe convection is expected on Saturday, although most/all of the CWA will be at risk as the boundary should lift northward into southern Oklahoma in the morning. It's slight northward retreat will be due to increased southerly low-level flow in the presence of a compact shortwave traversing southwesterly mid-level flow through New Mexico and the TX Panhandle. This will open the entire forecast area to 70+ dewpoints and extreme instability, and the additional ascent from the shortwave's arrival should ignite greater coverage of convection by late Saturday morning or early afternoon. The higher coverage and faster upscale growth will probably cause threats to transition primarily to damaging winds rather quickly, but lower hail/tornado threats will certainly accompany all surface-based storms through Saturday afternoon as convection transits the area to the east. Storms are likely to last into the evening before diminishing overnight. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 221 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ /Sunday through Thursday/ ...Sunday through Monday Night... On Sunday, the dryline will retreat further west, extending from the Texas Hill Country through western Oklahoma. Aloft, a strong upper-level disturbance will pivot from the Great Basin into the Rockies. The primary disturbance, however, won't eject east of the Rockies until Monday. As such, forcing for ascent will be weak Sunday evening, resulting in very isolated storm coverage along the dryline. Storms should mostly remain west of the I-35/35W corridor and near the Red River should they develop. Any storm Sunday evening will have the potential to be severe, with deep layer shear supportive of organized updrafts and 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE. This will bring the potential for large hail and damaging winds with any mature thunderstorm. Though non-zero, the tornado threat will be low owing to weak low-level shear. Storms should quickly dissipate after sunset due to continued weak forcing and the redevelopment of a strong capping inversion. On Monday, the primary upper-level vort max is expected to eject out into the central Great Plains. This will induce surface cyclogenesis somewhere in eastern Colorado or western Kansas. As the low develops and tracks east, a cold front will approach the area from the north, with a dryline draped from central Oklahoma down the I-35 corridor into central Texas. East of the dryline, a very warm and moist airmass will still be in place, with SBCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg. PVA with the approach of the main disturbance aloft will bring sufficient forcing for ascent to develop scattered thunderstorms along the dryline by the late afternoon/early evening hours. Exact storm coverage remains uncertain at this time, but should be more widespread than any convection on Sunday. As storms mature and move off the dryline, abundant SBCAPE, strong deep layer shear, and 0-1km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will be favorable for all modes of severe weather, particularly for any discrete storms that can persist into the early overnight hours with the development of the low-level jet. Exact timing and coverage remain uncertain at this point, as this will be determined by the progression of the upper-level disturbance and the strength of the capping inversion during the daytime hours. ...Tuesday through Thursday... By Tuesday, a cold front will move through the region. Isolated thunderstorms along the front during the morning hours will become more widespread as the day progresses. At this time, it looks like the front should push east of our area before peak heating and the greatest potential for storms gets underway. Regardless, there will be enough deep layer shear and instability in place to support organized convection, so will have to continue monitoring for the potential of additional strong to severe thunderstorms during the early afternoon hours. Behind the front and through the middle of next week, temperatures will return to near or slightly below normal. Highs should be in the upper 70s and low 80s, with nighttime lows dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s. High pressure will dominate behind the front, supportive of dry weather Tuesday evening through Thursday. Darrah && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ Low stratus near 1 kft has overspread the Waco TAF site overnight, and is on the doorstep of D10 TAF sites as of 11z. While a brief period of cigs in the IFR category are possible in the next hour or two, cloud bases should primarily hover in the 1-2 kft range this morning before scattering to VFR occurs by 15-16z. Attention will then turn to convective chances this afternoon, with initiation of isolated storms within D10 possible after ~20z. This could result in a few hours of TSRA impacts to any of the TAF sites due to thunderstorm activity immediately at the airports, or at least within the vicinity. Confidence in coverage and placement of storms is still too low to warrant a Tempo TSRA in the TAFs at this time. Convective chances will end this evening with VFR and light southeasterly winds resuming. Another low stratus intrusion is expected at Waco on Saturday morning, but the likelihood of these cigs reaching D10 is too low to include in the extended portion of the Metroplex TAFs at this juncture. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested along and east of I-35 this afternoon. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 72 90 73 89 / 30 10 70 50 20 Waco 92 74 92 72 92 / 40 40 30 30 10 Paris 87 66 86 69 85 / 30 20 60 60 30 Denton 91 66 89 69 88 / 10 5 70 50 30 McKinney 90 69 88 71 87 / 30 10 70 60 20 Dallas 92 71 91 72 89 / 30 10 70 50 20 Terrell 89 70 88 72 89 / 40 30 60 50 20 Corsicana 92 74 91 74 92 / 40 40 40 40 10 Temple 94 74 93 72 94 / 20 30 20 20 10 Mineral Wells 93 67 92 70 91 / 10 5 60 40 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$