####018007142#### FXUS64 KEWX 161050 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 550 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory remains in effect this afternoon and early evening for portions of South Central Texas. - Low chances for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms today and Saturday. Low cloud cover continues to build over the area early this morning which will aid in warm morning lows in the 70s for the majority of South Central Texas. Low clouds will slowly break up later this morning, though scattered mid and high level clouds will be seen through the afternoon. Another hot day is forecast with highs ranging from the mid 90s to around 105 degrees, hottest near the Rio Grande. The dryline to the west doesn't advance too far east today, possibly only as far as Val Verde County. With dewpoints in the mid 60s to mid 70s ahead of it, heat index values will be high again this afternoon with the hottest values in the Rio Grande Plains up to 111 degrees. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect for this afternoon and evening which includes most of the I-35 corridor, Coastal Plains and extends west into the Rio Grande Plains. Additionally, a few thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front in North Central Texas late this afternoon or evening. While most guidance keeps activity north of our area, a few models do generate isolated thunderstorms in some of our far northern counties near this boundary. Any storms that do develop may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. More low clouds and warm overnight lows in the 70s are expected tonight leading into another hot day. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms are seen Saturday afternoon and early evening ahead of a surging dryline. Any activity is mainly expected over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, though some storms develop in Mexico and move over the Rio Grande. Right now, SPC has a level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms for these areas on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Record breaking heatwave continues with additional temperature records likely being broken through Monday. - Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. -Chances for showers and storms Tuesday with arrival of a cold front though confidence of timing and strength is low. The forecast period starts off with decreasing storm chances as these storms that formed early during the day slowly move out of area Saturday night. Depending on the conditions during the day, with how warm and unstable we get some of these storms could be strong to severe. Currently the SPC has our area in a level 1 of 5 risk roughly along and west of the I-35 Corridor down into the Carrizo Springs area. Areas east of this line could see storms but chances are significantly less. Heading into next week, the heat continues though air temperatures start slowly decreasing however the feels like remains in the 100-110 degree range through Monday. This is in response due to an upper- level trough axis to our west which starts to deepen providing some weak disturbances that move into the region. These disturbances will limit just how high actual air temps can go due to increased moisture and abundant cloud cover. In response rain and storm chances look to increase across the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor with the best chances late Monday into most of Tuesday as a cold front makes it way across the area. Additionally, the dryline ahead of it could become active during the day Tuesday, thus producing low chances (20-30%) of isolated showers and thunderstorms across these areas. Models are still out of sync so look forward to more details to come into focus as we get closer. Regarding temperatures the cold front mentioned prior could bring some temporary relief from the heat, however confidence in the strength and position is low at this time. Regardless, temperatures will remain well above normal through the end of the forecast period with high temperature records likely to be tied or broken. Towards the end of the long term, temperatures cool somewhat into the low 90s vs the upper 90s/100s that we previously have been seeing. Please make sure you and your loved ones have a way to stay cool during this early season heatwave. Additional heat safety information and resources can be found at the following websites: www.heat.gov and www.weather.gov/safety/heat && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MVFR ceilings have moved over I-35 terminals with a few locations also seeing MVFR visibility. Visibility should improve around 14Z with VFR conditions returning to sites late morning, though though mid and high level cloud cover will be common through this evening. Wind in the eastern half of the area may be gusty at times this morning, dropping off slightly in the afternoon at I-35 sites. KDRT remains below 10 kts with variable directions as the dryline nears the area during the period. MVFR conditions return tonight into Saturday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN) FRI SAT SUN 05/16 05/17 05/18 -------------------------------------------- AUS 97/2018* 97/2018 97/2022 ATT 99/2022* 99/2022 98/2022 SAT 97/2022* 100/2022 101/2022 DRT 107/2013 105/2013 107/2024 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 98 76 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 75 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 96 74 96 73 / 20 10 30 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 79 101 79 / 0 10 30 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 75 98 73 / 10 20 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 99 74 100 73 / 0 10 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 74 98 74 / 10 10 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 98 76 100 76 / 10 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 100 76 101 76 / 0 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio- Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Medina-Travis-Uvalde-Wilson- Zavala. && $$ Short-Term...27 Long-Term...CJM Aviation...27 ####018010407#### FXUS63 KMQT 161050 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 650 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of showers and storms, potentially strong to severe, returns for this afternoon and evening. Severe winds up to 60+ mph and hail up to a quarter in diameter are possible. - Mostly dry and cooler than normal next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 259 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 As the last of the rain showers moves through the central U.P. behind the cold front boundary that's passing through the far east right now early this morning, satellite imagery shows clearing beginning to move into the area from Wisconsin. As this occurs, we could see temperatures take a quick dip into the 50s for a low this morning. However, with warm air advection already projected to move into the area before dawn, not too much of a dip is expected. As the parent low slowly rotates over the Northern Plains into Minnesota today, expect the warm air advection to accelerate over the central U.P. by the afternoon hours. With mostly sunny skies expected across the region until the mid-afternoon hours, model soundings show a deep boundary layer developing ahead of and during the increased cloud coverage this afternoon. With the accelerating warm air advection bringing a low-level jet into the area, expect to see southerly wind gusts of 30 to potentially even 40 mph develop across the area by this afternoon. CAMs and other model guidance show discrete rain showers and thunderstorms developing along a secondary cold front moving through the U.P. late this afternoon/early this evening beginning in the central U.P.. While the threat for severe weather late this afternoon into early this evening remains marginal (5% chance) according to the Storm Prediction Center, severe winds of 60+ mph are possible in the central U.P. as thunderstorm downdrafts could bring the LLJ winds to the sfc. Should this occur, we could see isolated spots having snapped tree limbs and downed power lines. We could also see some isolated hail reports up to a quarter in diameter as the LLJ will bring strong shear to any thunderstorms that develop. As the storms traverse eastward across the U.P. this evening, the severe threat will diminish as the environment becomes less favorable with time and the area of instability shrinks; it currently looks like the severe weather threat will be over by midnight tonight. As the vertically-stacked low moves trough northern Wisconsin tonight, expect the wrap around moisture to initiate some light rain showers across the area behind the cold front, mainly along the northern tier. Besides the marginal severe weather threat, another concern for the short-term is limited to potentially elevated fire weather concerns over Ontonagon, southern Houghton, and Baraga counties early this afternoon. Expect relative humidities to drop down to around 30% by the early afternoon hours, with highs getting into the mid to upper 70s and southerly winds gusting up to 30 to potentially 40 mph at times. However, as the cold front pushes through by the late afternoon hours, expect conditions to begin improving, with showers and even thunderstorms (some potentially strong to severe) being possible. Given the recent rainfall received over the area over the past 24 hours, will not issue an SPS for fire weather concerns this morning. However, should conditions be worse than forecasted for, this decision may need to be reevaluated. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The extended period is quite a bit calmer and cooler, with most of the period dominated by high pressure ridging from northern Ontario/Hudson Bay and low pressure missing us to our south. Thus, expect to see fairly dry conditions once we get through this weekend, but also below normal temperatures too. Expect wrap around moisture from the low to continue light rain showers across the area Saturday, with the convection becoming more focused on the northern tier over the western U.P. by the afternoon hours as upslope enhancement becomes more evident. While the winds are expected to be lighter Saturday than today, we could still see some northwesterly gusts up to 30 mph at times by the afternoon hours as the low moves from the Upper Great Lakes towards the St. Lawrence Seaway. With modest cold air advection cycling into the area Saturday, expect highs to be muted and below normal, only getting into the 50s across the area save for maybe the lower 60s in the far east and south central. A secondary trough behind the low is expected to bring reinforcing moisture and cold air advection to our region Saturday night and Sunday, allowing the upslope showers to continue as some lake enhancement may start to come into play. With some of the model guidance showing negative energy (below 0C) above the sfc, it's possible that we could see the light rain transition to snow, sleet, or even freezing rain; highs Sunday are only projected to get into the lower 40s along the northern tier near Lake Superior. While the NBM does not show this, I think that the greatest concern right now is the freezing rain potential, especially since some model soundings have the sfc temperature right at or below freezing Sunday. Now, with that being said, even if the freezing rain were to occur, I'd expect no more than a glaze to a couple of hundreths of an inch to accumulate (if that) as there won't be much moisture in the air to work with. While this would not cause any concerns for the power grid, it could create some travel concerns for the evening and overnight hours on untreated roadways; will need to monitor this in the future, even though I have low (less than 20%) confidence that this will happen. The current model guidance has high pressure ridging from northern Ontario/Hudson Bay dominating the U.P. the rest of next week, keeping us dry and cooler than normal; expect highs to generally be limited to the 50s until we see a slight climb into the lower to mid 60s by the end of the week. We could see limited to potentially elevated fire weather concerns once again Monday and Tuesday across the interior west as the NBM shows relative humidities dropping down to as low as the mid 20 percents. However, given the recent rainfall, cooler temperatures, and lighter winds expected, leaning towards this being more of a limited fire weather threat at this time. While a strong low pressure looks to develop over the Central Plains and meander eastward with time early next week, with the high pressure ridging overhead, I'm currently thinking that we will stay dry (even though the NBM is still giving us a chance for precipitation). However, should ridging in the lower levels be weaker than what's currently forecasted, there is a chance that we could get the northern flank of the precipitation associated with the low, especially since a mid to upper level low is already expected to be over the Ontario/Quebec border region near the Upper Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 649 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions continue through the rest of today as a dry slot is currently moving over us ahead of an approaching secondary cold front and it's parent low pressure. Given the mostly sunny skies today, we should mix very high up into the atmosphere, allowing for strong southerly winds to gust down to the sfc across the terminals. Winds of 30 to potentially even 35 knots are possible this afternoon. We also could see showers and storms develop over mainly CMX and especially SAW late this afternoon as the secondary cold front pushes through the region. Some very strong and erratic winds of 50+ knots are possible in some of the thunderstorms, as well as hail up to a quarter in diameter. As the secondary cold front pushes into the eastern U.P. this evening, the parent low moves into the area, bringing deteriorating cigs and potentially vis to the terminals from west to east tonight. Thinking conditions will progressively drop from VFR to MVFR to IFR or lower this evening through the overnight hours. Once the cold front passes, winds will become much lighter and will eventually become northwesterly behind the center of the low pressure. && .MARINE... Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Expect southeast to southerly winds to pick up to 30 knots with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots possible this afternoon over the eastern lake as a LLJ moves into the area. As the sfc low moves over the lake today and tonight, expect the winds to become northwesterly at 20 knots or less behind it. However, as a secondary shortwave brings additional cold air advection into the region Saturday into Sunday, expect the northwesterly winds to pick up to 25 to 30 knots with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots Saturday through Saturday night over the central and eastern lake. However, as high pressure ridging begins to move back in from the west and north on Sunday, expect the winds to become north to northeasterly at 20 to 25 knots Sunday morning before weakening to 20 knots or less late in the afternoon. A strong low meandering from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley could create northeasterly winds of 20 to 30 knots across the western half of the lake Monday and Tuesday. Some rain showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern half of Lake Superior late this afternoon into this evening, with some of the thunderstorms potentially bringing severe winds of 50+ knots and hail up to a quarter in diameter down to the water's sfc. Stay up to date on the forecast and the latest alerts. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...TAP MARINE...TAP ####018010369#### FXUS61 KAKQ 161051 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 651 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Summer-like temperatures and humidity are expected today and tonight, along with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Similarly warm for Saturday as a cold front crosses the area, bringing additional showers and storms. High pressure briefly returns for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures cool down and conditions become unsettled into the middle of next week as an upper level low pressure system develops west of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible across the area this afternoon into tonight, but confidence remains low on placement and timing of storms. - Summer-like temperatures and humidity today and tonight. WNW flow aloft prevails across the Mid-Atlantic this morning with ridging extending from the Southeastern CONUS into New England. A prominent upper low (stacked atop strong 981 mb sfc low pressure) is located over the northern Plains, with an attendant trough over the Midwest and western Great Lakes. Locally, the sfc pattern remains quite nebulous with high pressure well offshore to our SE. A few isolated showers have popped up over the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore, though not expecting much more than a sprinkle from these and have elected to keep PoPs below 15% for this activity. Some patchy fog may also develop again this morning given residual sfc moisture and light winds, but dense fog is not really expected at this time. Similar to yesterday, there are looming uncertainties in the thunderstorm forecast today, especially late this morning into the afternoon. A convective complex likely develops over the TN Valley early this morning, progressing eastward through daybreak. There is some potential for the leftovers of this to slide E of the mountains and move through the area early this afternoon. This solution is shown by most CAMs. Some show a line of storms moving through the heart of our CWA (HRRR and experimental NSSL MPAS models) while others have it moving mainly to our S (HRW-NSSL, FV3, ARW). Ultimately, the track (and intensity) depends on the these storms initially set up and track and when they move through. If it moves through in the afternoon, the environmental parameter space again looks quite favorable for severe weather with strong instability and shear (2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective shear), though forecast soundings do show a weak cap. Later tonight, height falls overspread the area as the trough advances eastward and this could support a more widespread convective event. This will be tied to another developing complex convective complex/MCS over the TN and OH Valley, with these storms also expected to track eastward toward the area. Still, the evolution of the overnight convection will likely be tied to what happens the day as large storm complexes are very effective at modifying the mesoscale environment. All of this again lends to a rather low confidence forecast and am not confident enough to have anything higher than 30-40% PoPs today. Will show the first round with mainly 30% PoPs, followed by 20% PoPs for the evening with a potential lull, followed again by 30-40% PoPs tonight (highest W and NW). As the evolution of the convection becomes more clear later this morning and afternoon, adjustments to the forecasts are likely. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a broad Level 2 out 5 (Slight) Risk for all of our VA and MD counties, with a Level 1 out 5 (Marginal) Risk for our NC counties. With the aforementioned environment being very favorable for damaging winds and large hail, the *potential* for severe weather exists areawide. Outside of convection, a very warm to hot day is expected with the ridge overhead. Temperatures warm into the lower 90s for most areas W of the Chesapeake Bay, with mid-upper 80s on the Eastern Shore. With a moist low-level airmass and dew points around 70 F, it will feel quite humid and heat indices should peak in the mid to potentially upper 90s for a good portion of the area. Skies also average mostly to partly sunny, though variable cloudiness would be expected around and within thunderstorm activity. Lows tonight should be very reminiscent of summer and range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Very warm Saturday with additional strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. - Drying out later Saturday into Sunday behind a cold front. Another hot day is ahead for Saturday ahead of a cold front. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with the warmest temps across the SE. The details of any convection in the afternoon hours are again fuzzy given the dependence on what happens tonight into early Saturday, particularly surrounding any leftover precip or storms. Additionally, the primary shortwave and ascent will become displaced N of the region later in the day. There will still likely be a favorable kinematic and thermodynamic parameter space in place, conditionally favorable for a severe weather threat. Given this, SPC has maintained a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight) severe weather risk for most of the area, minus our far western counties in the Piedmont. The main threat would again be damaging winds, with large hail also possible. With drier air filtering in behind the front Saturday night, expect cooler low temps in the lower to mid 60s. Still quite warm for Sunday as only modest cold advection occurs behind the front. Highs in the lower to mid 80s, warmest across the S and SE and coolest on the Eastern Shore. Overnight lows drop into the 50s inland and lower 60s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Dry and warm Monday. - Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday through Thursday. High pressure builds over the region, at least briefly, for Monday as the upper trough axis shifts further offshore. Dry weather is thus expected for Monday, outside of some increasing higher clouds from the west. High temperatures in the mid 70s are expected on the Eastern Shore, with lower 80s elsewhere. An upper level low is favored to develop in the Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday, which will lead to an unsettled weather pattern developing. The specifics remain unclear with differences among the deterministic guidance, but Wednesday currently appears to be the wettest day next week. A few showers are also possible by later Tuesday. With the increased precipitation chances, temperatures trend cooler...and likely below seasonal norms...by Wednesday and Thursday. Below normal temperatures remain favored through the end of the week and looking ahead to next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Friday... Patchy fog (MVFR VIS) at RIC and SBY to start off the forecast period, with all sites returning to VFR ~13z. Additional showers and thunderstorms develop later today, with potentially two rounds impacting the TAF sites, the first round being this afternoon and the second round tonight. Highest confidence for showers/storms this afternoon, where a PROB30 has been introduced. While there is a decent amount of uncertainty with respect to timing, some of the storms could be severe with gusts up to 50 kt (or higher). Additional showers/storms will remain possible into early Saturday morning. In addition, there is low confidence that patchy for and/or low stratus will impact SBY early Saturday morning. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and storms develop again Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, predominate VFR conditions return over the weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Generally sub-SCA conditions into the weekend, but with elevated SW flow ahead of a cold front Saturday, and elevated NW flow behind the front Sunday-Monday. - Locally strong to severe storms possible later this afternoon into tonight. Early this morning, a nearly stationary front is draped over the northern Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. South of the front, winds are generally out of the S to SW, ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Along/north of the front, winds are generally light and variable. Seas range from 2 to 3 feet (locally up to 4 feet across the far southern coastal waters) and waves in the bay are running around 1 foot or less. The front gradually lifts north today, with S to SW winds increasing to ~10 to 15 knots later this morning into tonight. Scattered showers and storms are again possible later this afternoon into tonight, with some of these storms potentially being strong to severe. Still looking at the potential for a brief period of elevated, near SCA SW winds Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across the lower James and lower bay. Winds veer around to the W/NW later Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of a passing cold front. Next chance for SCA level winds comes with a secondary surge of cooler, drier air Sunday night into Monday, though this remains uncertain at this range. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Flood Warnings continue along the James River, at Richmond- Westham, and Richmond Locks have crested, but will remain in minor flood stage through Friday night. See water.noaa.gov for more site- specific information. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...KMC/SW AVIATION...AJB/RMM MARINE...AJB/LKB HYDROLOGY... ####018004223#### FXUS63 KIWX 161052 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 652 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are possible from 6-11pm EDT this evening. The greatest risk will be in the southern half of our area. - Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary threat but hail and tornadoes cannot be ruled out. - Dry weather returns for the weekend with highs in the 60s to low 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Round 1 of severe wx has ended and we now prepare for a potential round 2 later today. Deep upper low will continue to pinwheel over the Upper Midwest with a second embedded shortwave swinging through our area later today, pulling the upper low further ESE and pushing a surface occluded/cold front through the area. This front passes during the favorable time for severe weather (early evening) but the instability picture is much more muddled today. Cold midlevel temps will support decent midlevel lapse rates but surface dewpoints will only be around 60F at best. This keeps SBCAPE values generally at or below 2000 J/kg. There will be a stout capping inversion for much of the day but that does look to break with the passing front roughly 23-03Z. Wind/shear profiles are obviously highly favorable for organized storms if sustained updrafts manage to develop. With the passing front and at least moderate instability there seems like a decent chance for that to happen. Multicell lines/clusters will likely be the primary mode given linear forcing with damaging straight-line winds the primary hazard given 50+ kts of flow not too far from the surface. There is also a secondary hail and tornado risk though. Hail will be somewhat limited by more modest instability but there is likely enough for some 1"+ hail given cold midlevel temps. And while surface winds are not as backed as one would like to see for a tornado risk, the degree of 0-1km shear can't be ignored. 0-3km line-normal shear vectors should also easily exceed 30 kts and will present a QLCS tornado risk (if other storm- scale criteria are met). Our entire CWA will have some chance of severe weather this evening but the best chances appear in our southern half. Potential failure points include more limited instability and later/weaker forcing which would likely lead to a more isolated threat given the lack of a solid/organized convective line. More organized activity south of our area may also limit the threat this far north. Given highly active short-term and relatively quiet weather over the weekend into early next week, did not make any changes to the NBM initialization. Upper low continues to pinwheel east on Sat with just a low chance of a few sprinkles in our N/NE zones. Sunday will be dry and pleasant with cool temps, mostly sunny skies, and low humidity. Precip chances do return to the area late Mon into Wed as another upper low approaches the region. Still some uncertainty with the track of this low but most guidance keeps us on the cooler/more stable side with decent rain chances but a low severe risk at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 652 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 An upper low pressure system is still to the area's northwest today and that allows for another chance at thunderstorms this evening. Both SBN and FWA have a chance to see the thunderstorms arriving between 00z and 3z. Low MVFR has a chance to be met due to the heavy rain and lowered CIGs. CAA follows behind the cold front and may allow for some lingering clouds, but at this point, it appears to just be scattered cloudiness. Winds are expected to be out of the southwest through the TAF period, slowly veering ahead of the arrival of the front. Gusty winds between 20 and 30 kts will be possible for a period this evening as well. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...Roller