####018003824#### FXUS64 KLCH 161109 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 609 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to Major heat risk is noted through the weekend as a prolonged period of above normal hot and humid weather will persist. - An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for rain out of the forecast into early next week. - Trends show a cold front moving through next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning that will bring a chance for rain along with cooler nights and less humid days. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Upper level ridging will continue to provide a cap over the forecast area through the weekend that will keep any significant chance for rain out of the forecast. Southerly breezes today with a bit of pressure gradient with the low over the plains, however winds are expected to stay below advisory criteria, with wind speeds lowering over the weekend. With the southerly winds bringing in humid conditions, and lack of convection allowing for above normal highs, afternoon heat index readings will be over 100 degrees for portions of the forecast area north of the I-10 corridor. Looking at the NWS Heat Risk from WPC, the area will see a Moderate to Major Heat Risk or level 2 and 3 out of 4 through the weekend, with the higher heat risk values mainly north of the I-10 corridor. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 240 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The upper level ridge will hold through Monday, then begin to weaken on Tuesday as a rather strong upper level disturbance over the Rockies moves eastward. Guidance is now pretty consistent in this system bringing a cold front through the forecast area during the late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning period. Looks like there will be enough lift and dynamics to work with the Gulf moisture in place to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms during that time period. Behind the front, drier continental air will move into the forecast area that will allow for cooler and more comfortable nights with less humid days to end the period. Rua && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Persistent southerly breezes will continue today with gusts nearing 25 knots at times through 17/00z. The southerly winds will bring in moisture under a cap that will help produce low clouds with ceilings in the MVFR range through about 16/17z then ceilings lifting to VFR levels. Tonight about 17/00z, low clouds will again reform and lowering to MVFR then around or after 17/06z to potential IFR levels. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Pressure gradient and nocturnal jet working to create elevated and breezy southerly winds into the early morning hours before decreasing. At the moment small craft exercise caution should handle the situation through mid morning. Surface high pressure will continue to ridge across the northern Gulf through the weekend into early next week. This will allow a light to occasionally moderate southerly flow to persist. An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for showers out of the forecast through the weekend. Rua && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 92 74 93 72 / 0 0 10 10 LCH 87 74 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 88 75 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 89 74 89 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07 ####018007496#### FXUS62 KFFC 161109 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 709 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be well above normal across north and central Georgia. - Showers and thunderstorms will advance into north Georgia in the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. Some of these storms will have the potential to become strong to severe. A 500 mb ridge is extending across the eastern CONUS and will translate towards the Mid-Atlantic coast throughout the daytime today. Surface high will meanwhile extend from the northern Gulf Coast into the Southeast. The warming trend observed over the last couple of days will continue underneath the ridge and surface high. After the morning begins with low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, high temperatures this afternoon will be the warmest of the week so far. Highs ranging from the upper 80s in far north Georgia to the mid 90s in central Georgia will range from 8-12 degrees above daily normals. These high temperatures could furthermore approach record values in the Atlanta area. While SW flow on the back side of the high will promote dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70, subsidence underneath the high should largely inhibit rain chances throughout the day today. An occluded low pressure system over the high plains will slide eastward towards the Great Lakes this evening into the overnight hours. A cold front extending from the occlusion over the eastern Great Lakes will push through Tennessee Valley region late in the day and into the overnight hours. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to advance into far north Georgia around 3 AM and move southward through the early morning hours. These storms will move into an environment with lingering SBCAPE between 1500- 2000 J/kg, which will be lower than peak heating but more than enough to support surface-based convection. 0-1 km shear is furthermore expected to range from 30-35 kts immediately ahead of the front. As a result, some thunderstorms embedded within the line will have the potential to become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. An isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out, and appears to be most likely in the far northwest corner of the state where the best instability and shear will overlap. The SPC has maintained a Day 1 Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather across far north Georgia, and introduced a Slight (level 2 of 5) Risk in the extreme northwest portion of the forecast area to account for these threats. Instability will continue to decrease as the cold front and line of storms works its way southward, and the line is anticipated to be near the I-20 corridor by sunrise on Saturday. During the daytime on Saturday, the remnant boundary is expected to stall in central Georgia. By this time, forcing near the front should be weak. However, with highs forecast to rise into the mid to upper 80s in north Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia and dewpoints near 70 in areas to the south of the front, SBCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg will still allow for the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. With deep layer bulk shear of 45-55 kts, some of the storms that develop will have the potential to become supercellular and produce damaging wind gusts and hail. King && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 355 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Warm to hot. Highs on many days in long term will be in upper 80s to lower 90s, depending on cloud cover and other factors. - Small chance of severe weather early Saturday morning. Conditional threat. Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) in place, damaging winds primary concern). Diurnal thunderstorms chances most afternoons in North Georgia. The stage is set for a battle of the subtropical ridge and the polar trough across north Georgia through the long term. A series of short waves and a stalled frontal boundary will bring several chances of showers and thunderstorms through the longterm. The first chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Sunday as a shortwave traverses the trough to the north. This will help to bring warm moist air up over the stalled front which will have settled over the southeast. The exact positioning of the front is still in question, however scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely across the CWA (particularly the western counties). CAPE values will be typical for afternoon conditions in May. Ensemble guidance indicates a 75% chance of CAPE values greater than 1500 J/kg south of a line stretching from Lagrange to Macon, though roughly 50% chances remain up into the ATL metro. At this time wouldn't be surprised to see some areas reach closer to 2500 J/Kg by the afternoon. Unidirectional shear along the stalled frontal boundary may act as a path for storm motion/organization. While currently unlikely, will need to keep a close eye on the potential for MCS development. No significant relief is expected from the shortwave as the subtropical jet surges northward once again keeping temperatures in the 80s and even low 90s through the extended period. Diurnal thunderstorm chances remain across north Georgia where upper level support remains entrenched. Our next weather pattern change likely won't come until near the end of the long term period with a more substantial trough from the northwest. SM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 652 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 An IFR cloud deck is currently in place over west-central Georgia, including CSG. This cloud deck could spread as far northeast as FFC in the early morning, warranting a TEMPO for BKN008 from 12-14Z. A scattered VFR cu field will be in place across the area underneath upper level clouds this afternoon. Winds will be SW at 4-7 kts through the morning, increasing to 8-11 kts after 16-17Z. An advancing cold front will push a line of SHRA/TSRA into far north Georgia after 06-07Z on Saturday morning. Precip and MVFR ceilings are anticipated to arrive at RYY as early as 09Z and to ATL by 10-11Z. A PROB30 for TSRA has been introduced thereafter from 11-15Z. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium confidence on the extent and timing of early morning IFR. High confidence on all other elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 91 70 88 67 / 10 10 20 0 Atlanta 91 71 88 69 / 0 20 30 10 Blairsville 85 63 81 61 / 10 60 30 10 Cartersville 90 68 88 66 / 0 50 30 10 Columbus 92 70 91 69 / 0 0 20 10 Gainesville 89 71 86 68 / 0 30 30 10 Macon 92 69 91 68 / 0 0 20 10 Rome 89 69 87 66 / 10 60 30 10 Peachtree City 91 70 88 66 / 0 10 30 10 Vidalia 94 70 93 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....SM AVIATION...King ####018006468#### FXUS63 KARX 161111 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 611 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy today with gusts from 35 to 45 mph. Scattered to areas of showers through tonight. - Drier, cooler and less windy end to the weekend. - Widespread rain chances return for Monday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 TODAY-TONIGHT: Windy. Scattered to areas of showers. The upper level closed low is edging into western MN early this morning, shifting over northern WI this evening. Lobes of shortwave energy will rotat.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Strong subsidence and steep 1000-700 mb lapse rates will continue to mix strong southwest winds to the surface. Sustained winds will range from 25 to 35 knots with gusts to 50 knots. These winds have been picking up dust from recently plowed farm fields and lowering visibilities to 2 miles or less at times. As diurnal mixing occurs on Friday, the sustained southwest winds will range from 20 to 30 knots and gust from 30 to 45 knots during the late morning and afternoon.e around the low while short term guidance also favors streaking a weak ripple from the southern plains to across southern WI by the afternoon. Add in favorable low level lapse rates and ample saturation and scattered to areas of showers will be the result. The instability axis is shifting east so not anticipating much/if any thunder threat. Currently across SD, just west of the sfc low center, winds are gusting in the upper 30s/lower 40s mph. That low shifts over northern WI this evening, but is progged to undergo some weakening as it does. Low level winds become unidirectional across the forecast area this morning, promoting deep mixing upwards of 9 kft at times. RAP/HRRR suggest winds at the top of the mix layer could flirt with the upper 50s/60 kts, but only briefly. Generally, both bring upper 30s to near 40 kts to the sfc via momentum transfer, topping gusts out in the lower 40s mph. Flirting with wind advisory criteria, but mostly below. However, if the EC is to be believed, the wind prone areas west of the Mississippi River will be gusting well into the 50s mph (almost 10% of its members reach 60 at KRST). EFIs for wind gusts continue 0.8 to 0.9 today with SoT of 1. The EPS has been running "hot" when it comes to winds and doesn't have a lot of support from the other short/medium range guidance. The GEFS, for instance, has only 20% of its members reaching 45 mph at KRST. Latest HREF suggests approx 40-80% for 40 mph gusts for much of the forecast area, but only spotty 10-20% to exceed 45. Tossing a lot of numbers, percentages out there...presenting a muddy picture. Sensible outcomes say it's going to be windy either way. For now, per coordination with surrounding offices, will hold of an advisory. Will keep a close eye on evolution/sfc observations through the day, adjusting forecast and potential headline needs if warranted. - WEEKEND: cooler, lingering showers Saturday. Sunday dry, sunny with much lighter winds. The upper level closed low will be across Mich Sat morning, exiting over the eastern Great Lakes by Sat evening. Cyclonic flow, lingering bits of shortwave energy, potentially a westward hanging sfc trough along with favorable low level lapse rates will continue a smattering of showers Sat - mostly across WI. These should all exit east by the evening. A shortwave ridge a loft moves in for Sunday, bringing the weekend to a dry, less windy, mostly sunny and seasonable close. - START OF NEW WORK WEEK: periods of showers GEFS and EPS have been favoring bringing a longwave trough from off the west coast this weekend, moving it over the mid mississippi river valley by Tue morning. Bits of shortwave energy will pinwheel around the trough. Fairly messy setup as there will be a few shortwaves at play that could merge/stay solo/or come together well east of the local area. While these details aren't clear, a branch of the low level jet looks to funnel moisture north then westward, feeding the upper level forcing. Sensible outcomes, sans clarity in some of the finer details, is for areas of rain to spread across the forecast area as early as Mon morning, with periods of rain potentially lingering into Wed. The EPS and GEFS are a bit quicker with bringing in the rain chances compared to previous runs and there has been some shift southward in the GEFS. For now, will let the model blend detail the rain chances - which are still looking likely for a large portion of the forecast area. The current track of the trough would hold much/if not all of the instability pool well south, limiting the threat for thunder. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Main forecast concern will be increasing winds through today. Higher winds haven't progressed as far east as previously forecasted and as a result have had to amend KRST TAF site to account. However, have continued mention of increased winds at both TAF sites at 16.12Z TAF issuance as winds are expected to increase shortly after issuance from west to east. Highest wind gusts expected to remain west of the Mississippi River affecting smaller airports locally in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota as well as KRST TAF site. Initial precipitation and low storm chances shift northeast in a narrow band from northeast Iowa into central Wisconsin, affecting smaller airports southeast of KLSE TAF site. Subsequent widespread precipitation fills in from northwest to southeast this evening into the overnight. Thunder chances are low but not out of the question. MVFR ceilings fill in towards the end of the 16.12Z TAF period most lightly affecting the northern half of the local forecast area from southeast Minnesota through west-central Wisconsin. Highest confidence lies north of Interstate 90, i.e., just on the edge of KLSE and KRST TAF sites. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rieck AVIATION...JAR ####018011664#### FXUS63 KEAX 161111 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 611 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...Updated 12z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated/Scattered Shower Activity Friday; Robust Activity Far Eastern Missouri and Far Southeast Missouri - Mild Weather Conditions Saturday - Active Pattern Starts Sunday, Continues Through Wednesday - Severe Storms Favorable Monday and Tuesday; Heavy Rain Could Lead to Flooding && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Multiple features at the surface and in mid/upper-levels present across the Central CONUS setting up differing areas active weather and areas of more mild weather conditions. The most prominent feature is a closed-low through 300mb currently centered over the far eastern portions of the Northern Plains as of 0700 UTC this morning. This is creating southwesterly flow across the bulk of the Central CONUS to near the mid-Atlantic Region. A secondary though strong short-wave trough is working through this southerly flow, with strong vort maxima and 120kt H5 jet streak working through Kansas early this morning, with then another H5 jetstreak around 100kt in magnitude heading toward the Ozarks Region. The primary surface cyclone has become vertically stacked over the eastern portions of the Northern Plains. Short-wave trough over Kansas though is promoting stronger dCVA resulting in localized surface pressure falls across the Central Plains, and objective surface map analysis indicating this is forming a compact surface cyclone. The cold front that was associated with main surface cyclone has cleared through the Ozarks Region this morning and is headed toward the Tennessee Valley. However from Central Kansas into the lower Missouri River Valley, surface winds have turned southwesterly in response to the secondary surface cyclone developing underneath the mid-level vort maxima where ascent has been ongoing. Therefore, this has been maintaining WAA during the overnight hours despite the previous frontal passage. We have really only seen a notable drop in dewpoints, but not air temps. As this H5 jet streak works toward the east-northeast through the morning and afternoon, there is some potential for isolated to scattered sprinkles. 00z and 06z CAM simulated reflectivity fields have shown weak development from northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri between 11z-15z this morning. Western and north-central Kansas radars have shown some returns during the overnight hours but no surface stations reported anything reaching the ground. Will place isolated to scattered sprinkles in the forecast as this forcing moves through. There will be some moisture transport as this feature moves through, but with flow more southwesterly than southerly, will not be overly robust. Therefore, should see breaks in any cloud cover that helps temperatures reach back into the lower 80s, some areas perhaps only upper 70s. If the ascent in the dCVA region continues, secondary surface cyclone deepening will result in a stronger pressure gradient increasing southwesterly winds. Current model soundings do show deeper mixing occurring in areas with clearing today, with winds around 30 kts toward the top of the mixed layer. Therefore, expecting wind gusts 25-35 MPH this afternoon. Far northwestern Missouri may reach above 40 MPH for an hour or two. For now, not seeing a strong enough signal to hoist a wind advisory in northwest Missouri, but will continue to monitor conditions. If elevated showers develop, may see those transport greater momentum toward the surface. Eventually the H5 streak moves into the upper Mississippi River Valley and pulls the remainder of the surface cyclone through by late afternoon, while the closed-cyclone in the upper-midwest provides northwesterly flow and pushes another cool front across the area. Stronger moisture transport from the Ozarks into the western Ohio River Valley will setup a robust severe thunderstorm event for eastern and far southeastern Missouri late this Friday afternoon and evening. Most of the precipitation chances are east of our forecast area, and 06z CAMs keep all activity well east of Hwy. 63. Saturday, a few PV anomalies over the eastern Pacific setup multiple short-wave axes across the western CONUS that will increase the flow enough to move the the closed-low system into the Northern Great Lakes Region, developing a corridor of mid-level height rises from the Front Range into the Mississippi River Valley. Eventually this becomes a mid-level ridge axis that moves through the area, providing WAA with passage of a thermal ridge, meanwhile subsidence across most of the region through at least the last afternoon hours of Saturday will keep the early portions dry. This should also keep temperatures in the lower 80s across most of the forecast with upper 70s toward the Kirksville area. Later Saturday, H5 trough over western CONUs is progged to develop a negative tilt that may eject a localized vort maxima toward the southwest portion of our forecast area. Low-level flow response turns southerly ahead of this resulting in enhanced moisture transport, and could bring shower activity during the very late evening hours Saturday and overnight into Sunday. Primary H5 ridge axis should pass east of the region overnight or very early Sunday morning. By Sunday, broad H5 troughing is still progged over much of the Intermountain West to the Front Range. Deterministic GFS and ECMWF depict two vort maxima and closed-lows that attempt to develop, nearly depicting a Fujiwara Effect. Not completely confident this will pan out exactly as modeled, but is at least indicative that the propagation of the main trough axis stalls, providing the Central Plains to the Mississippi River Valley persistent southwesterly flow starting Sunday afternoon. Strong dCVA commences in the Front Range and High Plains Sunday afternoon resulting in strong surface cyclogenesis. This enhances low-level southwesterly flow across most of the Central CONUS, with southerly flow near the surface providing stronger theta- e advection. This starts to push a warm front across eastern Kansas to Central Missouri. Expecting persistent isentropic ascent across most of the theta-e transport axis to generate rain showers most of the day Sunday, helped by a few mid-level vort maxima ejecting from from the main trough west of the area. While theta-e advection will introduce instability, with MUCAPE values pushing above 2500 J/kg, strong cap remains in place as warm-nose pushes through. A few thunderstorms certainly can develop in this regime, but better shear and forcing remains west over Central Kansas for most of Sunday, thus largely limiting the potential for organized storms that could become severe. Confidence is high for measurable rain on Sunday, with most ensemble suites depicting over 90 percent chances for measurable rainfall Sunday afternoon and evening. Monday, expecting the H5 trough axis to slide further eastward into the Central Plains, with dCVA moving eastward tracking the surface cyclone further east. This will will provide better large scale ascent across our forecast area, and pushes the warm front toward the Iowa state line. High theta-e airmass settles in, with dewpoints progged to reach the upper 60s for areas along and south of Hwy. 36. Deepening surface cyclone should help to back surface winds, increase low-level flow, while strengthening mid and upper-level jet streak moves overhead increasing the deep layer shear across a strong warm-sector. This is shaping up to be a favorable severe thunderstorm environment, especially for areas along the warm front where surface troughing ahead of the main cyclone could occur. Deterministic GFS and ECMWF diverge in how the negative tilt of the H5 trough evolves Monday, and eventually on when it becomes a definitive closed-low. Therefore, this greatly impacts where the warm front surges and how expansive the warm-sector will be across our forecast area. With strong forcing and instability, damaging wind gusts and hail will be favorable with storms on Monday. The magnitude of shear values and potential hodograph structure could support a tornado threat, but there is not a strong consensus on how exactly the low-level wind field develops, and several other mesoscale factors cannot yet be determined. With the rainfall activity on Sunday, there is potential for differential heating boundaries to develop that could drastically alter the wind field. Aside from the severe storms threat, a stalling warm front within an area of broad synoptic scale ascent could lead to training showers/storms or perhaps an MCS, and in environment with PWATs pushing above 1.5 inches, likely leads to flooding issues. GEFS and other ensemble suites do currently depict over 50 percent probabilities for over 1.0 inch of rainfall on Monday, and that would be on top of whatever occurs from Sunday activity. Depending on how progressive the H5 trough becomes, Tuesday could be another day of severe storm development if the warm front remains north of the area, leaving a strong warm sector across the lower Missouri River Valley. Tuesday should eventually see a cold front push through and against a strong theta-e airmass. Continued strong mid and upper-level flow continues to provide deep layer shear favorable for organized activity. The main question for Tuesday is how long for our area does the threat persist. If the cold front surges early before stronger destabilization can occur, the threat may be short- lived. However, if the stalling of the system and warm front continues, could see activity continue later into the afternoon. Tuesday's severe weather environment will depend heavily on how Monday evolves, and what kind of recovery can occur. It is the type of setup where could see a lingering MCS, or activity that congeals into a MCV that greatly modifies the wind shear environment. It will be a few more days before we can really start to inspect mesoscale outcomes for Tuesday activity. Wednesday, ridge axis is progged to push across the western third of the CONUS, and should have enough flow to push any closed-low system eastward. Lingering rainfall from Tuesday activity is possible, with some ensemble members maintaining chances for measurable rainfall through Wednesday morning. There may be light activity that occurs after Wednesday of next week with few disturbances riding through the ridge, but overall probabilities are low at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Tracking area of clouds that will move through eastern Kansas and western Missouri the next couple of hours, but bases will be VFR. These should scatter out through the afternoon. Southwest wind gusts between 25 and 30 kts possible this afternoon and evening. Precipitation expected to hold off at STJ and the KC Metro terminals through Saturday afternoon. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Krull AVIATION...Krull ####018004448#### FXUS63 KUNR 161111 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 511 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northwest winds will continue through this morning before gradually diminishing this afternoon. Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are possible across the western South Dakota plains. - Widespread frost is likely early Saturday morning across northwestern SD into portions of northeastern WY as temperatures drop into the mid-30s under light winds and clearing skies. -Unsettled pattern continues into next week with another storm system bringing appreciable rain to the region Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday) Issued at 357 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 06z sfc analysis shows an impressive 980 mb low centered over southeastern ND/northeastern SD. Precip has moved back southwards across much of the western SD plains north of I-90. RAP reanalysis data shows core of 50-70kt winds at 850-700 mb over western SD, these winds are mixing down to the surface. Many stations across the western SD plains are reporting gusts of 60-75 mph. The strong winds will continue through this morning into the afternoon as strong 850-700mb level winds remain overhead. Haven't made many changes to the current wind headlines aside from upgrading Tripp County to a High Wind Warning. Rain showers and high elevation snow will continue across western SD through the morning and afternoon before tapering off along with the winds as the system moves east. Colder air filters into the region late tonight with clearing skies, low level moisture, and light sfc winds supporting frost over northwestern SD into portions of northeastern WY. Have high enough confidence in widespread frost to hoist a Frost Advisory for late tonight into early Saturday morning for these areas. As the upper level low shifts to the east, quasi-zonal flow/broad upper ridging establishes itself over the Northern Plains for Saturday. Temperatures will warm slightly with highs in the 60s to 70s and mostly dry conditions for most of the region. Weak shortwave energy crosses the southern tier of the FA Saturday afternoon and evening, supporting chances for showers/storms across the Black Hills into southwestern SD. More substantial forcing moves into the region Saturday night into Sunday as an upper trof digs into the western US with modest IVT transport bringing gulf moisture into the region. TROWAL will remain over region as the sfc low shifts to the east, supporting a long duration rain event Sunday afternoon through Monday night. 00z LREF probs depict 70+% chances for the CWA to pick up >0.25" QPF from 00z Sunday to 00z Monday. There are medium-high (40-70%) probs for most of the western half of SD to pick up an inch of rain Sunday night into Monday. High elevation snow will also be possible with this system as colder air settles into the region. Shortwave ridging develops over the region by the mid-week with a chance to dry out before the next system moves into the region in the late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued At 503 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Widespread MVFR and locally IFR conditions and rain will continue across much of western South Dakota into the Black Hills and northeastern Wyoming through today. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR from west to east this afternoon and evening. Strong northwest winds will continue across the area this morning with gusts of 55 to 60 kt possible over the western SD plains. Winds will diminish after 00z. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049- 072-073-077-078. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Saturday for SDZ001-002-012- 013-073-078. High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for SDZ024-028. Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ027-030-042- 074>076. WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ060. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Saturday for WYZ056-058>060. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong AVIATION...Wong ####018003471#### FXUS64 KLIX 161111 AAA AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 611 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 An upper level high will reside over the central Gulf through the short term period. This will continue to promote an above average temperature regime across the region. At the surface, high pressure will be in control centered over the eastern Gulf allowing for a more moderate low level flow across the region. This flow will continue to pump ample low level moisture across the region. However, with plenty of dry air just off the deck with an a strong EML observed from the recent 00z LIX sounding, a dry forecast should prevail. During the overnight, low stratus will continue to develop under the strong H85 inversion layer. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A mostly zonal flow transitioning into a more active southwesterly flow is expected through the second half of the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. This will continue to promote generally an above average temperature pattern with a 593dam H5 ridge remaining locked over the Gulf. A broader scale trough will move eastward through the plains and eventually into the Cornbelt southward to the Ozarks. This will send a front and parent upper level shortwave through our region midweek. Globals are in relatively good agreement in terms of timing and strength of the system and this will be our next chance of rainfall across the region with the best QPF signal residing along and north of the I10/12 corridor. Behind the front, CAA develops and temperatures drop from the 80s/90s respectively to the lower to mid 80s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s across the cooler interior locations to round out the long term period. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 CIG reductions will improve to VFR here over the next couple of hours. During the day winds will be a bit gusty, especially BTR where southerly gusts of 20-25kt will be possible through the day. Otherwise, more low stratus is forecast to develop later this evening and especially overnight tonight with MVFR conditions again possible later in the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Cautionary headlines are ongoing for the western waters south of Terrebonne Bay. Winds going into the weekend will slightly weaken as pressure gradient relaxes just a skosh. That said, moderate southerly flow will continue through the weekend and into early next week with moderate seas also continuing. A cold front will approach the region by midweek, which should transition winds to a more northwesterly direction. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 91 72 91 71 / 0 0 10 10 BTR 92 75 93 74 / 0 0 10 0 ASD 90 73 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 90 76 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 85 74 86 73 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 87 72 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RDF MARINE...RDF ####018006664#### FXUS63 KIND 161111 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 711 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong and Severe Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening across Central Indiana. - All Severe modes are in play today, including damaging straight line winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. - Warm and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Cooler and quiet for the weekend, additional precipitation again next week && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Synopsis: Strong low pressure was found over the eastern Dakotas with a frontal boundary stretching east across northern MN, then southeast to lower Michigan and western Ohio. This was resulting in a warm and humid southwest flow over Indiana. GOES16 shows mainly a few high clouds in the wake of the convection that has pushed east to Ohio. Water vapor imagery shows a tropical plume of moisture streaming from the Pacific, across TX to KY and TN, while dry air and subsidence from MO/IL/WI was swirling into the upper low over the northern plains. Today and this evening - * Strong Storms, some severe, are expected this afternoon and evening * Damaging Straight line winds, Isolated Tornadoes and Large Hail possible. An active weather pattern is set up for today. Broad cyclonic flow around the deep upper low over the northern plains is expected to continue drive the weather across Central Indiana. We will remain within the warm sector, with moderate southwest winds in place across our area through the day, due to the moderate pressure gradient in place. Furthermore plentiful lower level moisture appears in place as dew points across area were in the middle and upper 60s. Looking aloft, models suggest a short wave pivoting around the upper low pushing across IL and nosing toward Indiana by late afternoon. A tight gradient in place aloft suggests strong dynamics with this feature. By late afternoon and into the evening models suggest a LLJ of 40-50 knts across the area. Further support for convection is found within the forecast soundings where steep lapse rates are displayed with convective temperatures in the middle 80s and afternoon CAPE values over 2400 J/KG. Helicity values also appear favorable for rotating updrafts, particularly across the southern half of Indiana late this afternoon and evening. HRRR continues to suggest thunderstorm development with this wave and instability initializing over IL late this afternoon, before pushing across Indiana during the 22Z to 02Z time frame. Although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out anywhere in Central Indiana this afternoon and tonight, the best chances for tornadoes will be along and south of a Sullivan-Bloomington-Greensburg line, while straight line winds and hail appear to be the larger threat across points to the north. This situation will evolve as the day progresses and these areas could change in later analysis. Thus today is a day in Central Indiana where people will need to stay weather aware, listen for watches and warnings, have multiple ways to get weather information and ensure your are familiar with your safety plan. Overall, low pops to no pops will be used this morning, with near categorical pops late this afternoon and early evening when storms are expected. Highs again should be at or above persistence, in the mid to upper 80s. Tonight - In the wake of the storms by mid evening, cyclonic flow will remain in place, however the flow aloft will shift to westerly and mid level subsidence is seen flowing into the system. The arrival of westerly winds will allow dew points to fall to the 50s, resulting in a cooler and less humid air building across Indiana overnight. Models show ridging building across the northern plains states late tonight, leading to lee side subsidence over IA to build across IN as the night progresses. Thus skies should become partly cloudy in the wake of the storms overnight. Given the start of the change in air mass, lows in the the middle 50s will be expected. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 An exiting low will move off to the NE at the start of the period. Behind the low, broad riding across the central plains will initially dominate this weekend. Pressure gradients between the system will keep wind gusts to around 25-30 mph during the afternoon on Saturday but will be much calmer for Sunday. A more active pattern is then expected for much of the work week as an upper low, with a couple of short wave, moves through the region. Models are struggling to determine the details at this time as different solutions show varying tracks and strengths to the system. Confidence on temperatures is also low as it will depend on what side of the low central Indiana ends up with. Despite the uncertainties, it does look like there will be a good amount of moisture to work with, so could see a threat for multiple days of heavy rain, and temperatures probably below normal for much of the week. Towards the end of the long term and into the holiday weekend, a ridging pattern may set up to bring from the rain expected next week, but it is still too soon to have much confidence in this yet. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 711 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Impacts: - VFR conditions for much of the period. - High confidence for evening Thunderstorms, possibly severe. - Patchy fog may impact a few TAF sites at the beginning of the period Discussion: Another active weather day is in store for Central Indiana. Strong low pressure over the upper midwest will provide SW winds and today and keep the TAF sites within the warm sector, bathed in warm and humid air. Strong SW flow aloft today along with a moist and unstable column will lead to thunderstorm development this afternoon. HRRR brings an area of thunderstorms across Indiana during the 21Z-01Z time frame. Some gusts of 40-50 knts will be possible due to the strong flow aloft. During this window, MVFR to IFR Conditions could be possible with the passage of storms, but not high enough confidence to include in TAFs. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...KF ####018010317#### FXUS62 KCHS 161111 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 711 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will remain across the area through the remainder of the week. A weak cold front may push over the region early next week, remaining generally stationary through Tuesday. A stronger cold front is timed to sweep across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... At daybreak, the forecast update will increase sky cover to align with recent satellite trends. Otherwise, the current forecast appears on track. Today: On water vapor this morning a vertically stacked low pressure was noted across the eastern Dakotas. Over the southeastern United States this has allowed for mid-level heights to rise with a ridge axis extending through eastern Georgia and South Carolina. 1000/850 mb thicknesses have responded to this with values now forecast to approach 1425-1430 m during peak heating. 850 mb temperatures are also forecast to be around 18/ 19 degrees C. Both of the values above would support high temperatures in the upper 90s. However, given the wet ground from recent precipitation and periodic high clouds (which should hold back high temperatures a degree or two) high temperatures will likely range in the 94 to 97 F range. A sea breeze will also take shape this afternoon and begin to push inland late afternoon. The records at Charleston and Savannah Intl Airports today will likely be challenged, while the Downtown Charleston/ Waterfront Park record will be safe due to development of the sea breeze. More information can be found in the climate section below. No precipitation is expected today given capping around 750 mb and a relatively dry PBL. In fact, even the Cu field looks rather paltry for today. Heat index values are forecast to be in the 98 to 104 F range as dewpoints will likely mix out some this afternoon. The experimental Heat Risk level remains in the level 2/ moderate risk category (orange) which indicates that this level of heat will affect most individuals who are sensitive to heat. Tonight: No precipitation is expected as mid-level ridging persists. Expect low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Saturday: The vertically stacked low that was over the Dakotas on Friday will move east and cross the Great Lakes region early Saturday morning with widespread convection over the Ohio River Valley diving southeast. Convection will likely reach the Appalachians by late Friday evening/ early Saturday morning. Even though mid-level ridging is forecast to weaken Saturday, capping looks rather potent Saturday morning. As such, high res guidance is rapidly decaying the MCS to where nothing is left across the Midlands and Lowcountry of South Carolina. Given the capping and the forecast displacement of the MCS from the parent upper level forcing, this makes sense. The GFS deterministic and some of its ensemble members still show some hints of convection on Saturday, but the EPS and GEPS are rather dry. Thicknesses on Saturday do fall to around 1420 - 1425 m so high temperatures will likely be in the lower to mid 90s. Low temperatures will again be in the upper 60s to lower 70s (mid 70s at area beaches). Sunday: Short term guidance indicates that a wavy stationary front will linger over the forecast area during the daylight hours Sunday. NAM and ECMWF indicate that a MCS sourced from the Mid-Mississippi River Valley will track along the stationary front, passing just south of the Appalachians, reaching SE GA/SC during the afternoon hours. Although this scenario is possible, it would be largely dependent on the placement of the stationary front, which remain uncertain. However, the GFS shows a more plausible setup for afternoon convection. The GFS indicates that a mid-level disturbance, possibly an MCV, rippling over the forecast area during the afternoon. The passage of the disturbance may coincide with a sea breeze Sunday afternoon. Given afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s over dewpoints around 70 degrees may yield a field of 1000-1500 J/kg with little to no CIN. This setup should result in at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage could be greater near the intersection of the sea breeze and stationary front. Convection should track off the coast or dissipate around sunset Sunday evening. Sunday night, low temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast. Patchy fog is possible over areas of rainfall from the Sunday afternoon storms. Due to high uncertainty, the forecast will not indicate fog at this time. Monday: H5 ridge centered over the Gulf will build across the Deep South through the day, with heights gradually increasing from the west. Given partly sunny conditions and increasing llvl thicknesses, temperatures are forecast to peak in the low to mid 90s. As temperatures warm, a sea breeze should advance inland through the afternoon hours. Slight steeper lapse rates over the SC Lowcountry should support at least isolated showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the sea breeze. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The axis of H5 ridge centered over the Gulf should ripple over the forecast area by Tuesday. Temperatures should begin the day around 70 degrees, then warming quickly through mid-day. High temperatures are forecast to range in the mid 90s, with upper 90s possible across extreme SE GA. It possible that record temperatures could be challenged, see climate section below. Given the ridge aloft, the environment across the forecast should remain capped. Hot and dry conditions expected for Tuesday. Tuesday night, temperatures will remain mild, with lows around 70 degrees. Wednesday: Guidance indicates a strong area of low pressure deepening across the Ohio River Valley through the day. The associated cold front should sweep quickly east, timed to push across the forecast area during the heat of the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate strong llvl wind fields, with 6 km shear exceeding 50 kts during the afternoon. Afternoon temperatures around 90 degrees and dewpoints around 70 degrees is forecast to yield CAPE between 1000-1500 kts. Interestingly, the forecast soundings indicate mixing above 5 kft, supporting afternoon gusts around 25 mph. In addition, the inverted V sounding may yield DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Given the favorable timing of the cold front and forecast environment, severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. Thursday into Friday, closed mid-level low will track over the NE CONUS, with the trough axis swinging over the forecast area Thursday into Thursday night. In the wake of the cold front, cooler thicknesses will build across the region on Thursday, lingering into Friday. Conditions will remain generally dry with temperatures returning to around normal. Thursday highs should range in the low to mid 80s, with Friday highs around 80 across the SC Lowcountry to mid 80s across SE GA. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z TAFs: VFR. Periods of high and mid level clouds will likely drift over the terminals through the TAF period. By the afternoon, a sea breeze will begin to form along the SC/GA coast and start to move inland. Winds at KJZI will back from the south/southwest first followed by KCHS and KSAV. Extended Aviation Outlook: Generally VFR. The risk for showers/tstms Sunday afternoon. && .MARINE... Today: High pressure located across south/ central Florida will favor southwest flow over the waters with winds 10 to 15 kt. During the afternoon, winds will back from the south and increase in speed as a sea breeze circulation becomes established. Winds will gust up to 20 kt at times, but remain below advisory criteria. Seas 2-4 ft. Tonight: A sea breeze will be moving inland with southerly winds over the waters beginning to veer from the southwest as the circulation begins to lose cohesion. Seas 2-4 ft. Saturday: A weak cold front will remain just north of the waters on Saturday, but still be close enough to allow wind gusts to approach 25 kt. For now, no Small Craft Advisory is anticipated for Saturday. For the period between Sunday through Tuesday, the marine zones will remain between high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and Low pressure tracking across the middle of the US. This pattern should support south winds around 10 kts with seas around 2 ft. On Wednesday, a strong cold front will approach from the west during the morning, reaching the marine waters by the afternoon. A squall line of thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the front, pushing across waters during the afternoon. It possible these storms will produce gusts in excess of 34 kts. In addition, a steep pressure gradient should support southwest winds between 15 to 20 kts with gusts around 25 kts. Seas should build to 3-4 ft. Small Craft Advisories could be posted to highlight the wind conditions on Wednesday. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: May 16: KCHS: 94/1941 KSAV: 95/1915 May 19: KSAV: 97/1996 May 20: KSAV: 96/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 16: KCHS: 71/2018 KSAV: 74/1915 May 17: KCHS: 74/1995 KCXM: 75/1998 KSAV: 74/1995 May 18: KCHS: 75/1995 KCXM: 77/1991 KSAV: 74/1899 May 19: KSAV: 74/1930 May 20: KCHS: 72/2022 KCXM: 76/2022 KSAV: 73/1896 May 21: KCHS: 74/2022 KSAV: 74/2017 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Haines/NED SHORT TERM...Haines/NED LONG TERM...NED AVIATION...Haines/NED MARINE...Haines/NED ####018006381#### FXUS63 KOAX 161111 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 611 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy today with gusts of 45 to 60 mph out of the west to northwest. Damage to trees and power lines is possible, along with reduced visibility due to blowing dust. - A stormy pattern develops Sunday-Wednesday with a good chance for widespread rainfall, and potentially multiple severe weather episodes. - Don't overlook the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially Sunday-Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 359 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Early morning analysis showed a strong cutoff low spinning along the ND/MN border with a a weaker shortwave trough and surface low sliding through southern KS. There were some weak returns showing up on radar north of the KS low and those should eventually push into our area this morning. Low levels do remain quite dry (dewpoints in the mid 30s to lower 40s) , so not expecting much, if anything, to reach the ground, but could be just enough to get some sprinkles in southeast NE/southwest IA this morning. The bigger story today, much like yesterday, will be strong winds out of the west to northwest. EPS mean gusts are 50+ mph for many locations with model soundings suggesting 60 mph gusts won't be out of the question, especially in northeast NE where we're expected to see a nose of 50+ kt 850 mb winds. In addition, showers currently over SD are expected to push into our area which will help to get some of those stronger winds to the surface (even just virga/sprinkles could be enough to do that). Therefore, upgraded northeast NE to a high wind warning. In addition to the typical wind hazards (potential damage to trees and power lines, difficult travel/cross winds), we could see some blowing dust reduce visibility, especially in areas that did not see meaningful rainfall Wednesday night into early Thursday. Some gusts of 20-30 mph could linger into Saturday morning, but generally expect winds to decrease through the day as the cutoff low pushes into the Great Lakes and Canada and upper level ridging builds into the area. Overall expect a fairly pleasant day on Saturday, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and quite a bit of sunshine by the afternoon. However, the quiet weather will be short-lived. A larger scale trough will start to eject out of the Desert Southwest on Sunday with a surface low spinning up over eastern CO. This will push a warm front northward toward the NE/KS border with plenty of instability in the warm sector. By mid to late afternoon, low level moisture transport will become quite strong and some shortwave energy will push in allowing for thunderstorm development in vicinity of the front. The big question for us will be just how far north the warm front can make it. Most EPS/GEFS members keep activity well south of us through the afternoon, but push the warm front and storms in by the evening/overnight hours. The earlier it pushes in, the higher the potential for surface based storms and the higher the severe weather threat with tornadoes, hail, damaging wind, and flooding all possible. If it holds off until later, the main threats would become hail and flooding and perhaps some damaging wind gusts. Regarding the flooding threat, there are some signs of training, efficient rain producing thunderstorms with persistent moisture transport pointing into the boundary, precipitable water values over 1.50" (90th+ percentile of climatology), and warm cloud depths around 3500 meters. But again, still a lot of details to be worked out with timing/positioning of the front, as there is very real potential that it stays well to our south and we end up not getting a whole lot. The severe weather threat continues on Monday as the front edges a bit farther north and the surface low ejects into the area. Once again, still some questions on just how far north the warm sector will extend, but there should again be plenty of instability and shear to yield a severe weather threat. The main trough (some signs it could even be a cutoff low) should swing through on Tuesday giving additional shower and storm chances. Model consensus keeps the highest instability off to our southeast, but still plenty of ensemble members that give us yet another severe weather threat. With potential for 3 consecutive thunderstorm days, the flooding threat will continue to increase, but of course will be dependent on what happens in preceding days. Obviously we could stand to get some moisture, so it could take a bit for flooding to develop, but certainly something to keep an eye on. Temperature-wise, we will cool down as the trough moves through on Tuesday, with highs only in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Some signs light precip could linger into Wednesday, which could keep us cooler again, but upper level ridging will be approaching and should lead to some quieter and warmer weather to end the week with highs getting back into the 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions favored through the period at OMA and LNK, though a few clouds around 2500-3000 ft agl are expected to push in toward the end of the period. At OFK, MVFR ceilings are expected to push in this evening with an outside shot at some this afternoon with some spotty light showers. Otherwise, the main story will be strong west to northwest winds with gusts topping out at 40 to 50 kts this afternoon. Speeds should come down this evening and overnight, but still could be some 18-25 kt gusts into Saturday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093. High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044. IA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...CA ####018005521#### FXUS64 KBMX 161111 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 611 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 - There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather late Friday night into Saturday morning across the northern portions of Central Alabama and then a marginal risk late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening across much of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 High pressure over the eastern Gulf will lead to southwest low and mid level flow prevailing and bringing plenty of moisture to the state. Today, the area should remain mostly rain free with plenty of low level moisture keeping mostly cloudy skies through the morning and early afternoon. High temperatures will be at or a degree above the temperatures Thursday, in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Tonight, a frontal boundary will approach the area, moving from north to south through the state through the morning. CAMs are showing the convection beginning in the northwestern counties around midnight, if not slightly after, and then reaching the middle of the state by sunrise and 7 am. There is some uncertainty as to how much coverage this front will produce, and how quickly the convection will make it's way into the state. Though with the parameters expected, severe thunderstorms are possible in any cell. Instabilities are between 1500-2000 J/kg, with DCAPE values anywhere between 500 and 700 J/kg. LI values will be roughly -4, with PW values in the 90th percentile to max for this time of year. The soundings show decent dry air in the low and mid levels, and with the moisture and anticipated evaporation/cooling aloft, will forecast a decent chance for damaging winds in any strong thunderstorms. Large hail will also be a possibility, especially in the cells along the front that have more lift. As the front moves south, models show a general decrease in coverage, though models haven't been stellar in any accurate depiction of coverage lately. Would expect activity to continue through mid morning, with a slow decrease in the damaging wind/hail potential as the lift weakens. There should be a break through the late morning and early afternoon before isolated to scattered diurnal convection develops along the boundary left by that front. Uncertainty remains in how much activity actually remains through the morning, and how much clearing can be expected that would allow for plenty of heating and instability for the afternoon activity. For these storms, instabilities will be higher, around 3000-3500 J/kg, especially in the west and southwestern areas of the state. These storms could also produce damaging winds/large hail, though the PW values should be slightly less. The afternoon activity will be more conditional, and for now will maintain the level 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across the entire area. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 A series of shortwaves will move across the region Sunday into Monday, with additional chances for rain or thunderstorms across Central Alabama. The best rain chances will be confined to the northern half of the area, with the highest rain and storm chances coming Sunday afternoon. A trough over the Plains will move eastward into Tuesday, with a surface low moving up the Ohio Valley dragging a cold front through Central Alabama Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will return during this period as a result. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across most places, which will be some of the warmest days so far this year. Wednesday and Thursday are currently projected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s behind the front. 12 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 Low and mid level flow from the southwest will advect plenty of moisture into the state with IFR and MVFR ceilings expected at various times throughout the day. This afternoon and evening, VFR ceilings are expected, before rain moves from north to south beginning in the early morning Saturday. Any activity over a TAF site will cause MVFR and possibly IFR conditions. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... The dry trend continues today. Minimum RH values will be the 40s south to 50s north, with 20ft winds up to 9 to 12 mph. Rain enters the area Friday night across the north with rain chances continuing off and on through the weekend. Min RH values should remain above 45 percent in most areas Saturday and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 89 67 88 67 / 0 50 30 20 Anniston 89 69 87 69 / 0 30 30 20 Birmingham 89 70 87 71 / 0 40 30 20 Tuscaloosa 89 71 89 72 / 0 40 40 20 Calera 89 71 87 71 / 0 30 40 20 Auburn 89 69 87 71 / 0 0 20 20 Montgomery 92 71 91 71 / 0 10 30 30 Troy 92 70 91 71 / 0 0 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...24 ####018006582#### FXUS64 KOHX 161112 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 612 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - A few strong to severe storms will be possible through 9 am in northwest Middle TN counties. Damaging wind and hail will be the main concerns. - A dynamic weather system will bring the potential for all modes of severe weather to Middle Tennessee this evening through 2 am tomorrow morning. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. - Unsettled weather continues into the weekend, though the severe threat will be low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 528 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 With a Severe Thunderstorm Watch currently valid through 9 am, we continue to monitor radar with storms just off to our northwest. Severe weather parameters are healthy with CAPE values near 2000 J/Kg and bulk shear values of 60 kts in place in the watch area. However, we're waiting for the lifting mechanism of a frontal boundary to inch closer to far northwest Middle TN. This is expected to happen over the next few hours, eventually bringing storms into the watch area. Damaging wind and hail will be the main concerns this morning. While worth watching, this morning's activity is far from the main show for today. As the cold front hangs around into the evening hours, additional mid-level energy will swing through the region. As it does so and the exit region of a mid and upper level jet noses into the TN Valley, I think what we will see are discrete cells develop upstream from Middle TN and work their way into our northwest counties, then congeal into an intense line of storms that will carry the damaging wind risk for this evening. CAMs are still a little wishy washy on the exact timing of arrival of storms in our northwest, but I think a 8-10 pm window is a good estimate with the line pushing quickly across the area through 2 am. The environment for any discrete cells that develop continues to be extremely impressive this evening ahead of the line. Several algorithm parameters are eye-popping in our northwest quadrant, including STP (significant tornado) values in the 5-6 range and supercell composites north of 20. These are concerning and could very well equal long-track tornadoes. While best chance of those is just off to our north, we will carry at least a low to medium risk of seeing this type of storm. With 0-1 km helicity values between 250 and 300, areas north of I-40 will be the focus for these discrete cells. Once the line develops, damaging wind gusts of 65+ mph will quickly become the bigger threat, but even then, I can't rule out a tornado spinning up from any bowing segments. I'm not done. On top of the wind/tornado threat, mid-level lapse rates have consistently been shown to be around 8 deg/km. This would spell a significant large hail threat, as well. We're advertising the potential for hail up to 3 inches. The largest would likely come from any discrete cell that makes its way into the area, but the line itself could render 2-2.5 inches very possible. We haven't mentioned much concern about flooding. I still think it's the lowest threat we're facing this evening. However, between any storms this morning and any spots getting this, a discrete cell, then the line? Some very localized flooding could become a problem. Narrowing down where this will occur is incredibly difficult, just know it's a possibility. Now is a great time to review your family's safety plan. If you don't have one, visit ready.gov/plan and make one today. In addition, take these other precautions before this evening: - Make sure your NOAA Weather Radio has fresh batteries. - Fully charge your cell phone. - Know where you will go for shelter in the event you go under a warning. Storms should be out of Middle TN by 2-3 am Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 A surface and upper ridge are situated to our east, giving us a southwest flow aloft while at the surface, a trough of low pressure is situated to our immediate north and west. However, there is a dearth of activity over Middle Tennessee this evening owing to an unusually strong trapping inversion. It is expected that the inversion will erode somewhat -- but probably not entirely -- as the 00Z HRRR brings a cluster of storms into northwest Middle Tennessee toward morning. However, the best chance for convection is going to be late tomorrow, tomorrow evening, then into the overnight hours across our eastern zones. The aforementioned surface boundary looks to clear the mid state entirely by 09Z Saturday morning. In the meantime, the environment by tomorrow afternoon is likely to be highly unstable, with large CAPE values, very steep mid-level lapse rates and plenty of available moisture. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Although the severe potential will be greatly reduced after tomorrow night, low to medium rain and storm chances will stay with us through the weekend and into the middle of next week before a cold front on Wednesday brings us drier, cooler air for a nice change. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 TAF sites will be VFR through the morning hours, when TSRA become a concern and could drop sites into MVFR periodically. Winds will be gusty tomorrow around 20 knots, but could be higher in thunderstorms. TSRA will become widespread after around 20z, as a line of storms moves from NW to SE across middle Tennessee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 70 87 65 / 50 90 10 20 Clarksville 85 67 84 62 / 80 90 0 20 Crossville 84 63 81 59 / 30 90 0 10 Columbia 86 67 87 64 / 30 90 10 30 Cookeville 83 65 82 61 / 40 100 0 10 Jamestown 84 63 81 58 / 60 90 0 10 Lawrenceburg 85 66 86 64 / 20 80 10 20 Murfreesboro 86 67 87 64 / 30 90 0 20 Waverly 84 65 84 63 / 50 100 10 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Holley ####018006143#### FXUS64 KLZK 161112 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 612 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A weak front dropped SE into NWRN sections of the state on Thu...triggering some strong/briefly SVR convection along/south of this boundary. This boundary remains across NWRN AR early this Fri morning...mostly evident in the dewpt gradient across NWRN sections. New convection is firing along/south of this boundary once again early this morning as an upper disturbance lifts NE in the SW flow aloft over this front. Some of this convection will have the capability to become strong to SVR this morning as it moves NE...with large hail the primary threat. Some damaging winds could also be seen...but will have to break through the low level inversion...with SFC based instability limited/elevated CIN. This will also keep the tornado threat low...but still possible. There will be a lull in convective activity later this morning as the morning convection lifts NE...and a warm front lifts north of AR. A dryline the west will then move east towards AR by mid afternoon...with an upper shortwave passing east...north of AR...around the south edge of a closed upper low over the NRN Plains. New convection looks to fire along/ahead of this dryline...then move mainly east. Initially...convection looks to initiate along/north of the MO/AR state line late this morning into the early afternoon hrs...lifting NE away from AR. Further south...initiation will come later in the afternoon/early evening as the capping inversion holds a bit longer before the dryline forcing/upper energy should overcome this inversion. Once the convection develops...severe thunderstorms will be possible...with very large hail the primary threat. This is due to very impressive CAPE of 3-4k J/kg or higher...with thick CAPE profiles and mid-level dry air in the hail growth zone. Forecast thermal profiles suggest up to baseball size...or maybe some potential of even larger hail. Damaging winds will also be a significant threat given this same instability/dry air combination. Tornadoes will also be possible...but low level SRH will be a bit more limited (100-200 m2/s2 0-3 SRH). Even so...given potential steep lapse rates forecast in the low levels...this could certainly overcome any relative low SRH...along with the very impressive CAPE. The tornado threat becomes higher across NERN sections and points further NE as the low level SRH increases. By late Fri night...any convection that develops will move east/SE into the overnight period before convection exits the state to the SE early Sat morning. The dryline will retreat back west...but a cold front will drop south into NRN sections of the state by sunrise Sat morning. More convection looks to develop to the SW of AR early Sat afternoon...eventually lifting NE into SWRN AR by late Sat afternoon. The overall threat for seeing SVR Wx will be a bit lower with this convection on Sat afternoon/evening...but plenty of instability will remain ahead of the the convection as it approaches from the SW. While the eventual storm mode looks to be a cluster or MCS by the time it gets to AR...large hail and damaging winds will again be the primary threats. While the overall forecast instability will be a bit lower...the nature of the thermal profiles will suggest very large hail once again...potentially up to baseball size on Sat. Most of the SVR threat will be across the SWRN half of the state...or mainly south of the SFC frontal boundary. The active pattern will continue through the rest of the weekend into early next week...with chances for convection continuing. The potential for SVR Wx will be a bit more limited during this period given a bit of ridging over the state. However...forecast instability looks to remain plentiful given warm/humid conditions. As a result...still think some strong to briefly SVR convection will be possible both days. The potential for more organized SVR potential will come on Tue as a potent upper shortwave moves east across the region...and a cold front surges SE through the state. Strong/SVR TSRA will be possible with this system on Tue/Tue night as a result. However...exact details regarding timing and overall specific threats are uncertain this far out in time. Behind this front...the forecast will become cooler and drier...and more importantly...less active by the end of the forecast for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Rain/storms will largely remain between KLIT and KHRO/KBPK this morning with little to no impacts expected. VFR/MVFR cigs will be seen throughout the day with S/SW winds increasing. Additional rain/storms expected to move east across the state later this afternoon through this evening which could impact area terminals. After these storms move through, VFR conditions expected near the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 86 63 88 65 / 50 40 10 60 Camden AR 91 69 91 68 / 20 50 30 50 Harrison AR 84 57 84 61 / 50 0 10 60 Hot Springs AR 88 66 90 68 / 30 40 20 50 Little Rock AR 87 67 90 69 / 40 50 10 50 Monticello AR 91 71 91 71 / 10 60 20 40 Mount Ida AR 88 64 90 67 / 30 30 20 50 Mountain Home AR 85 58 85 61 / 50 0 10 60 Newport AR 87 66 88 68 / 50 50 10 60 Pine Bluff AR 90 69 90 70 / 30 70 10 50 Russellville AR 86 62 90 67 / 50 20 10 50 Searcy AR 87 64 89 68 / 50 50 10 60 Stuttgart AR 89 69 90 71 / 30 70 10 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...67 ####018007322#### FXUS63 KLMK 161112 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 712 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. * All severe weather hazards are on the table, including damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and torrential rainfall. A few strong tornadoes and instances of very large hail are possible. * Strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible this morning west of Interstate 65, with large hail as the main hazard. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 649 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Storms associated with an upper jet streak are moving very quickly across Kentucky this morning, with storm motions near 70 mph. In the last 30-60 min we have seen them sustain themselves better as they push east of the I-65 corridor, and some stronger wind reports suggest they're closer to becoming sfc based. Other storms in far western Kentucky are on track to outrun the SE portion of WW 259 around 13Z, so we have coordinated with SPC to run a local extension for the remainder of our Kentucky counties and one tier north of the river into Indiana. This may be a bit generous over toward Lake Cumberland, but seems a fair approximation given convective behavior. Issued at 336 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Boundary has lit up from the Shawnee National Forest in southern Illinois ENE to near Henderson, and storms tapped into strong elevated instability to produce vigorous cores aloft. Given the very unstable and strongly sheared environment, as storms continue to develop through early morning they will carry mainly a SVR hail threat from the Pennyrile into the Hoosier National Forest and sections of Kentucky west of Interstate 65. Damaging winds and even a tornado or two can't be ruled out completely, but storms will have a really difficult time becoming sfc based. Confidence is also slightly diminished south of the WK Parkway but we could see convection down toward BWG later in the morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 407 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A significant severe weather outbreak is possible later this afternoon and this evening across the Ohio Valley. Storms developing ahead of an incoming cold front will quickly become severe in a very unstable and strongly sheared environment. All severe weather hazards, including widespread damaging winds, very large hail, and strong tornadoes are possible, as well as localized flash flooding. Main bust potential hinges on the evolution of storms this morning, which have developed over western Kentucky. These storms will have a large hail threat of their own, especially west of Interstate 65. While they will at least temporarily stabilize the atmosphere, strong warm advection is likely to win out, allowing a fairly quick recovery this afternoon. With around 3000 J/kg of mixed-layer CAPE, 1000 J/kg of downdraft CAPE, and 60 kt of effective shear, initially discrete storms will organize into at least bowing segments. A few of the discrete cells could produce very large hail and/or strong tornadoes, and line segments could produce hurricane-force wind gusts. Spin-up tornadoes will also be in play with any of the bowing structures as well. The peak severe threat could be slightly delayed depending on how quickly the atmosphere can reload after morning convection, but the threat will mainly be focused on the evening hours. Initial discrete cells could develop in the late afternoon. It's also worth noting that in the late evening, the line will become more east-west oriented, opening the door for excessive rainfall especially over south-central Kentucky. Confidence in the exact placement is low at this time, but it bears watching as the event unfolds. Bottom line, significant severe weather is possible late this afternoon and this evening. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and a plan in place should a warning be issued! && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 352 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 By Saturday morning, the actual cold front will be pushing through the area with most of the showers and storms exiting to our east. The associated upper low will be over the Great Lakes with the longwave trough axis extending south over the OH and TN Valleys before flattening out against the subtropical ridge over the Gulf. Weak CAA behind the front will result in climatological normal temperatures for the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s accompanied by breezy WSW winds on Saturday. Overall, most will experience a fair weather weekend. Southern KY will see a slight chance of showers on Sunday as the southern edge of the new airmass begins to lift northward due to the next low pressure system strengthening over the Central Plains. This will begin another period of unsettled weather as we enter the beginning of the new work week. By Monday, a warm front will begin lifting across the region resulting in warm and moist air advection, as PWATs surge into the upper percentiles of SPC's sounding climatology. Models tend to agree on convection from our west moving into our area by Monday morning with another round Monday evening. The warm front appears to stall over the region, prolonging our shower and storm chances into Tuesday and Wednesday before the occluded low pushes through on Wednesday. With model soundings advertising sufficient instability and ML guidance also showing enhanced severe probabilities, severe weather can not be ruled out. Details remain hazy this far out, but will continue to monitor closely with subsequent forecast packages. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 712 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Main challenge in this TAF set is timing and impacts of two different waves of convection. Ongoing convection this morning will mainly produce brief IFR vis in the heaviest rain, but cigs should remain VFR with the exception of LEX and perhaps RGA. First wave of storms will push east of the terminals by 15-17Z, giving way to mainly mid-level cigs this afternoon with gusty SSW winds. Next wave of more vigorous storms is expected early this evening. Given the wind threat, opted to include a TEMPO with convective winds starting around 23Z in HNB/BWG, closer to 00Z at SDF, and 01- 02Z in LEX and RGA. This will also be the better shot at MVFR cigs and IFR vis, and could warrant a prevailing mention in later TAF issuances. Some uncertainty between waves at BWG and RGA as we could have a lingering boundary draped across to focus convection sooner. Should be a fairly sharp cutoff and clearing out of lower clouds after the storms pass around midnight. Light SW winds and cirrus ceilings heading into Sat morning. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...RAS SHORT TERM...RAS LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...RAS ####018007341#### FXUS64 KEPZ 161113 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 513 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy Saturday, then windy again Sunday/Monday with widespread blowing dust and critical fire danger. West winds 25 to 35 mph. - Dry weather through the week ahead as lowland temperatures warm to the mid-to-upper nineties by Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Streaming high clouds today, especially over west Texas southward toward Big Bend. Temperatures right near normal with lowland highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph this afternoon, with light breezes. Yet another round of strong winds ahead this weekend as southwest flow aloft increases. Prevailing weather pattern shows a longwave trough over the Western U.S. and two jet streaks rounding the base of the system Sunday and Monday. Flow actually begins increasing Saturday afternoon with lee surface low formation over NE New Mexico. Looking at southwest winds in the 20 to 30 mph range midday, below wind headline criteria but certainly enough to pick up blowing dust along the International Border and I-10/US-54 corridors. Wind gusts will be strongest over the Sacramento Mountains, where we could see gusts up to 50 mph on Saturday. First shortwave is timed to round the trough base Sunday afternoon, with a 65-knot jet streak at 500 mb. Once again, we remain below Wind Advisory criteria at this time, but we really don't need it for dust hazards. WSW winds 25 to 35 mph will be most common, most evenly spread across the forecast area. Blowing dust and high fire danger are the main concerns. Used a blend of NBM75 and CONS MOS to increase forecast winds slightly these days. This blend has verified quite well this season with previous wind events. Right now, Monday looks to be the strongest wind of the three days, attributed to a 80-knot jet streak cutting across New Mexico and a 993-mb surface low over the Texas panhandle, closer to our region than Sunday and thus resulting in a tighter surface pressure gradient. We may need wind headlines for Monday afternoon as sustained speeds approach Advisory criteria and some of the high terrain/east slopes locations show wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range. Once again, widespread blowing dust will impact the El Paso and Las Cruces area. We will likely need Dust Advisories/Warnings. One thing helping reduce dust risk is the due west wind direction Monday afternoon, which may keep much of the Chihuahuan dust sources south of the border. Upper low finally exits next Tuesday, ushering in a pattern change. Much quieter weather is expected the rest of next week, with lighter winds and continued dry conditions. Building high pressure aloft will induce a warming trend, which certainly indicates a warm Memorial Day weekend. Forecast models are showing lowland highs in the upper 90s, and it's not too unlikely that El Paso will make an attempt at 100 degrees (which we typically reach for the first time in late May anyway). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. High clouds over W TX, clearing further west across most of NM. Skies FEW-SCT250 this morning, becoming SCT-BKN200 tonight. Surface winds 230-260 at 10-15 knots this afternoon. Peak gusts around 30 knots at KTCS. More wind and dust concerns Sunday/Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Near Critical fire danger on Friday due to the very dry conditions. Min RH 5-10% with seasonal temperatures. Afternoon winds below critical thresholds southwest 10 to 15 mph. Critical to Extreme fire risk this weekend as winds pick back up. No change RH each day, reaching single-digits most areas. Breezy winds Saturday may warrant a Red Flag, in particular for LNF/Sacramento Mountains. Red Flags will be needed area wide Sunday and Monday due to windy conditions. Lighter winds Tuesday through the rest of the week. No precipitation is expected through Memorial Day weekend. Fuel conditions are closer to normal after some late April precipitation, but the next few days will accelerate the drying of fine fuels. Forest understory and grasslands will be susceptible to fire start and spread Sunday/Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 66 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 84 61 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 85 55 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 86 58 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 63 45 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 87 56 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 77 49 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 87 54 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 84 52 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 87 66 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 88 60 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 92 64 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 80 61 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 89 63 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 85 60 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 87 65 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 86 55 85 51 / 0 0 10 0 Hatch 88 56 87 51 / 0 0 10 0 Columbus 88 61 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 84 58 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 76 51 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 74 48 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 72 45 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 78 43 76 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 84 52 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 85 51 84 47 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 79 45 76 43 / 0 0 10 0 Hurley 81 48 81 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 84 47 83 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 79 46 79 43 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 81 51 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 86 53 85 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 85 53 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 86 53 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 79 53 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt ####018008447#### FXUS66 KLOX 161113 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 413 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...16/412 AM. Strong onshore flow and a persistent marine layer depth will bring a cooling trend through the weekend. Gusty onshore winds are likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours between Saturday and Sunday night along the coast and across the interior valleys. Night through morning drizzle or light rain is possible Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure aloft building in will bring a steady warming trend through next week. Temperatures more typical of the summer season are likely away from the coast for the latter half of next week. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...16/411 AM. The latest fog product imagery shows a marine layer low cloud deck becoming well-entrenched across the region this morning as an eddy circulation spins up across the southern California bight. Clouds are filling in across the bight and making a run at returning to the valleys this morning. The eddy circulation will lead to stronger onshore flow across the area today and Saturday and continue a cooling trend into the weekend. The marine layer depth, near 1600 feet deep in earlier AMDAR soundings at KLAX, will likely deepen to around 2000 feet deep later this morning, then start to deepen substantially through Saturday or Sunday. A weak trough with a dying frontal boundary over along the North Coast of California will add some dynamics over the coming nights and mornings to produce night through morning drizzle tonight through Saturday morning, and again Saturday and Sunday. NAM BUFR time height sections suggest the marine layer depth deepening to near 4500 feet deep at KLAX and 3500 feet deep at KVBG on Saturday. This is a more than ample depth to produce night through drizzle or light showers along the coastal slopes. Mentions of drizzle remain in the forecast, but the PoPs were increased to increase the chances for light rain. With the strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer depth, temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal. Saturday, when the marine influence looks to be greatest, looks to the be the coolest day of the period. Temperatures around the 60s to lower 70s will be common across the coastal and valley areas on Saturday. Clouds will likely struggle to clear the next several days and inhibit solar insolation. Gusty onshore winds will develop between Saturday and Sunday night due to strong onshore pressure gradients. Advisory level winds are likely along the coastal areas and across the interior valleys, especially each afternoon and evening. The dying frontal boundary will slide south over the area on Saturday and the pattern will shift the wind from southwest to west on Saturday to west to northwest between Saturday night and into Sunday. Wind advisories will likely be needed for most coastal areas and the Antelope Valley on Saturday and Sunday, and through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across southern Santa Barbara County on Saturday night and into Sunday. The northerly pressure gradient will likely tighten again on Sunday night into Monday. There is a low-to-moderate chance of warning level winds developing through the Interstate 5 Corridor and across southern Santa Barbara County. A few solutions of the EPS members indicate warning level gusts at KSDB, while the latest NAM-WRF solutions indicate 45-50 knots of wind at 850 mb across the Transverse Ranges on Sunday night. Further hinting at the possibility, ECMWF EFI values highlight the Transverse Ranges on Sunday night, while NAEFS standardized anomalies nosing 850-700 mb winds between 3 and 4 standard deviation versus the CFSR period over the Central Coast. Wind advisories are likely to be issued for Sunday night when the timing and finer details come together, but the High Wind Warning potential will need to be watched closely. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...16/405 AM. Gusty northerly winds are likely to persist into Monday morning as the surface pressure gradients remain tight. Confidence remains high for a warming trend for next week as high pressure aloft will build in over the region. While there is some uncertainty for Monday, EPS 500 mb height means climb through at least Thursday. By Wednesday or Thursday, EPS high temperature means suggest values in the 90s being common for the valleys, foothills, and desert, while temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s could be common across the coast. Deterministic ECMWF solutions support the idea of warming as pressure gradients weaken substantially to near neutral or light offshore. NBM solutions give about a 15 percent chance of KPMD and KWJF of hitting 100 degrees, which if it occurred would be about three weeks earlier than normal. Away from the coast, the temperature forecast leans more heavily into the 75th percentile of NBM solutions between the period between Wednesday and Thursday night. Experimental NWS heat risk values climb for Wednesday and Thursday, trending toward a period potentially dangerous heat. && .AVIATION...16/1101Z. At 0945Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was around 900 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 4000 feet with a temperature of 16 degrees Celsius. Overall, high confidence in 12Z TAFs for KPRB...KWJF and KPMD. For all other sites, moderate confidence in 12Z TAFs. Timing of dissipation of MVFR to LIFR conditions could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts. For tonight, high confidence in return of CIG and VSBY restrictions, but moderate confidence in timing (could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts). KLAX...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 21Z forecast. For tonight, timing of return of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 02Z forecast. No significant easterly wind component is expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of dissipation of IFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 18Z forecast. For tonight, timing of return of MVFR CIGs could be +/- 2 hours of current 07Z forecast (with a 40% chance of CIGs developing at IFR levels). && .MARINE...16/401 AM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Saturday afternoon through Sunday night, there is a 50-60% chance of Gale force winds. For the Inner Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday night, high confidence in SCA level winds, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 50% chance of Gale force winds Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds continuing. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Saturday through Sunday night, high confidence in SCA level winds, mainly across western sections of the southern Inner Waters. Additionally, there is a 50% chance of Gale force winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel Saturday evening through Saturday night. For Monday through Tuesday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Watch in effect from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 2 PM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Hall AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox