####018004831#### FXUS64 KMOB 161152 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 652 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Today through Saturday Night.... We will continue our hot and dry weather into the start of the weekend with high pressure firmly in control. The only possible rain chances will come on Saturday across our far northern fringes as a subtle shortwave pushes through the great lakes and a weak boundary drifts down into central Alabama. With overall weak forcing and a rather poor excuse for a boundary, storms will be rather meager and should be on the downtrend as they enter our area Saturday afternoon into the evening. Areas south of highway 84 will likely continue to remain dry for the foreseeable future. Other than those rain chances, the rest of the forecast is steamy with a side of sweat. Temperatures will continue to range in the mid 90s across most of the area with the only relief along the immediate coastline. Heat indices will be elevated as well ranging in the upper 90s and possibly even some low end triple digit heat indices on Saturday. This is just the appetizer for summer but given its only mid May, it is advised that folks continue to use caution when outdoors for extensive amounts of time and drink plenty of fluids. If you are heading to the beach to escape the heat, rip currents will remain moderate into the weekend but should slowly relax with time. BB-8 Sunday through Thursday... There could be some isolated showers and thunderstorms north of U.S. Highway 84 Sunday afternoon as an upper level impulse passes over our region in zonal flow aloft. Decreasing stability on Sunday with MLCape values increasing to between 1600 and 2200 J/KG, along with Bulk Shear values ranging from 35 to 40 knots, should support a few strong storms with localized wind gusts up to 40 mph. Dry weather is forecast across the entire forecast area Sunday night through Tuesday as an upper ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. An upper trough exiting the Great Plains Tuesday night will pass over the Ohio River Valley region the middle of next week, along with an associated surface low pressure area. This system looks to be strong enough to send an cold front south through our area Wednesday afternoon or evening. A return of isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. At this time it is still too early to determine if there could be any local impacts. High temperatures should range from 90 to 95 degrees interior areas Sunday through Tuesday, and from 85 to 90 degrees closer to the coast. These temperatures average about 5 to 9 degrees above normal interior areas and from 2 to 4 degrees above normal closer to the coast. Apparent temperatures (heat indices) are expected to be in mid to upper 90s away from the immediate coast. Lows will average about 7 to 12 degrees above normal across the entire forecast area Sunday night through Tuesday night, and settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s. We should see mid 70s along the beaches each night. High temperatures will cool into the 80s Wednesday and Thursday due to the cold frontal passage, and lows by Thursday night could dip into the mid 50s to lower 60s. /22 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MVFR ceilings this morning will give way to VFR ceilings over the next couple of hours. Ceilings will once again reduce to MVFR conditions tonight. Winds will remain out of the south around 10 knots gusting to near 20 knots before relaxing later tonight. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 With surface high pressure in place, no marine hazards are expected through the forecast with light onshore flow prevailing. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 88 73 90 71 88 71 88 72 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 86 74 88 73 85 74 85 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 85 75 87 75 86 76 86 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 94 70 95 69 93 67 93 68 / 0 0 20 10 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 93 72 94 69 92 69 93 70 / 0 0 20 10 10 0 0 0 Camden 93 71 92 69 91 68 93 70 / 0 10 30 20 20 0 0 0 Crestview 92 69 93 68 91 67 91 68 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob ####018008053#### FXUS61 KOKX 161153 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 753 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple surface troughs move through today and Saturday, followed by a cold frontal passage Saturday night. A secondary cold front moves through Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Low pressure lingers in New England and into the Canadian Maritimes through Monday as high pressure pushes in. High pressure remains in control Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another frontal system impacts the area Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The upper level trough can now be seen to our east on latest satellite imagery. Heights may briefly rise aloft heading into the early morning hours. At the surface, a very weak pressure gradient is leading to calm to light winds. This and the moisture available from several days on onshore flow has resulted in fog around the area. With the fog being locally dense, have issued an SPS through 13z. The convection forecast today and Saturday continues to be very tricky. There will be multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms with different forcing mechanisms. The first chance will be with the ongoing MCS moving into western NY and western PA. CAMs are not all that excited about this feature, but can not rule out some of this making it into far western portions of our area. The broken line is moving into a less supportive environment and if any of the activity does reach our area it will likely be just showers with potential for isolated thunder. Have moved timing of PoPs back two hours as timing now looks closer to after 14z. As we head into the afternoon, shortwave energy approaches and instability increases as we warm to the upper 70s with mid 60s dewpoints. Some showers and thunderstorms likely spark just west and move towards the area. Highest chances are once again north and west of NYC, but can not rule out a shower or thunderstorm anywhere. Some organized convection is possible with this afternoon activity given increased instability and shear along with better curvature in the low levels on model hodographs. At this time the main hazard would be isolated damaging wind gusts or large hail, again mainly north and west of NYC. This activity will decrease heading into tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper level low continues approaching on Saturday with shortwave energy ejecting out ahead of it. Similar forecast challenges in the morning hours as there may be some sort of approaching convection left over from what happens in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region tonight. Then, once again, the area destabilizes ahead of a cold front. While CAMs are not overly excited about this either, there is potential for more widespread convection over the area Sunday afternoon given stronger forcing, instability(MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg) and shear(0-6km bulk shear around 40kt). This will also lead to more widespread chances of storms reaching severe thresholds. The SPC has placed the western half of the area in a slight risk. As of right now, the main threat is damaging wind gusts. Model hodographs will have to be watched as there is some indication of favorable low level shear and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Latest Nam3km and HRRR show around 150 m2/s2 of effective inflow layer SRH. The cold front moves through Saturday night and then a secondary cold front moves through Sunday and Sunday night. PoPs lower significantly, but there will be additional slight chances of showers across the interior Sunday afternoon with the upper low above us. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly sunny skies take over as high pressure centered over or near Hudson Bay in Canada gradually noses into the area Monday into Tuesday night, keeping the area dry. To our northeast, low pressure will continue to exit into New England and into the Canadian Maritimes through. This will lead to breezy W/WNW winds from an increased pressure gradient through Monday. A frontal system from the Great Plains then moves into the Ohio or Tennessee River Valleys on Tuesday, moving through or in the vicinity of our region Wednesday into Thursday. Expecting showers during this timeframe. Too soon to call chances for thunderstorms. Model guidance still varies with timing, magnitude, and track of this frontal system. Have gone with chance POPs Wednesday into Thursday as a result. Temperatures look to cool each day in the long-term period, especially towards Wednesday and Thursday with clouds and rain limiting any heating. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and by Thursday, with will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows will range from the middle 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A surface trough approaches and moves through from the west today. A warm front approaches from the south on Saturday. Expecting VLIFR to IFR or early this morning, improving to MVFR this afternoon, but with potential showers. A passing thunderstorm is possible, mainly for the NYC terminals, but the chances for this are decreasing. Improvement to VFR for most terminals late in the day. Conditions deteriorate once again for all terminals to IFR or lower tonight. Light and variable winds early this morning become southerly at 10 kt or less later this morning and continue into tonight with outlying terminals becoming light and variable again. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Timing of IFR onset could be off by an hour or two for KTEB and KLGA. Timing of improving categories on Friday may also be off by an hour or two. There is uncertainty in return to VFR conditions, with a low to medium chance that conditions only improve to MVFR. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Tonight: IFR or lower. Saturday: IFR to start, improving to MVFR mid-morning, then becoming VFR in the afternoon with showers likely, and a chance of thunderstorms with MVFR conditions. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers inland. W winds G20- 25kt. Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Monday NW winds G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Dense fog on all waters is expected to continue through late morning. Fog will then return tonight, potentially becoming dense again. Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through Sunday for the most part. There looks to be brief potential for 25 kt gusts Sunday afternoon, mainly for NY Harbor, western Sound and western Ocean. During this time, seas on the ocean could also approach 5 ft. Outside of this, there is potential for showers and thunderstorms each day, with potential for severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas will be locally higher in any storms. Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria for Monday. However, there is a low to medium chance of 25 kt wind gusts over the ocean waters with low pressure over the Gulf of Maine creating an increased pressure gradient. Thereafter winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria due to lack of any strong pressure gradient across the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/JT NEAR TERM...JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JP MARINE...JP/JT HYDROLOGY...JP/JT ####018006257#### FXUS63 KGRB 161154 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI Issued by National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 654 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty southwest winds are expected today with highest gusts up to 40 mph, primarily between Fox Valley and Lake Michigan. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and small hail may be possible with any stronger storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A warm and windy day is in store for today. The low will be over northwest MN at 7AM this morning and should make it to Duluth around 7PM. A lobe of vorticity is expected to swing up from IA through eastern WI during the day. Vorticity advection and also upper divergence from the left exit region of an upper jet will provide synoptic forcing to allow for showers and storms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid level lapse rates during the afternoon, with 500 to 1000 j/kg CAPE. Some models show a weak cap while others try to mix us all the way up to 10kft. The winds through the profile are very strong with SW winds up to 43kt at 5kft and 50 to 60kt at 10kft. There will probably be a weak cap that will help keep our wind gusts in check today, but a few gusts over 39kt (wind advisory criteria) are not out of the question. If gusts begin to over-achieve by noon today, we will know we need a wind advy for the afternoon. Despite the weak cap, the overall synoptic forcing should be enough for scattered thunderstorm development. The CAPE values and low freezing level of 9 or 10kft support the chance for small hail, with a report of two of 1 inch hail possible. There is strong shear. The main threat for any stronger storms that develop is the damaging wind potential, since the strong winds aloft will efficiently mix down with momentum transfer. As the upper low tracks across MN today, another frontal boundary will push into north central and eastern WI. This will feature cooler temperatures, low clouds, and rain or drizzle. Northern WI will be fully engulfed in these damp, brisk conditions Friday night. Saturday, expect breaks in the clouds as the upper low starts to exit the region. With steep low level lapse rates and lingering low level moisture, scattered showers are expected, although coverage is still uncertain. In addition, expect gusty west winds up to 30 mph during peak daytime heating/mixing. Saturday highs will range from the upper 50s north central to the mid 60s east. MRC Saturday night through next Thursday Upper trough exits across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night with ridging aloft beginning to build from the plains into the western Great Lakes. Surface high pressure over Manitoba and northern Ontario will ridge into MN and WI Saturday night with more influence of ridging by Sunday night. The ridge will bring dry weather and also the risk of frost Saturday night and/or Sunday night. PWATs lower Sunday night, but with high more off to the north than the east, the area will keep some wind in lowest 1kft with tighter pressure gradient on southern edge of high. It still appears that temps could drop into the mid 30s north Saturday night and/or Sunday night. NBM probabilities of min temps less than 35 are 30 to 40 percent Saturday night over Vilas County, but increase and expand to 40-80 percent Sunday night north of highway 29. If and where winds become light, some frost could occur either of these nights, though Sunday night looks more favorable at this point. Troughing over the western CONUS late this weekend shifts east early next week, bringing the next chance of showers and storms to the area Monday night into Tuesday. One trend that seems to be emerging though is the dry east flow out of the high to the north may restrict chances of rain only to the southern part of the forecast area on into southern WI. Risk of any stronger storms also is well to the south of the area. Given these trends, its feasible that much of northern WI could stay dry early this week. Whatever chances of rain occur will shift south and east of the western Great Lakes Wed into Thu as broad 850-700mb low shifts across lower Great Lakes. Cool flow in wake of the low flowing across the region could lead to more clouds and a small chance of spotty showers by Thursday. Overall a cooler than normal stretch is expected for the coming week with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. JLA && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 653 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions prevail today with increasing winds as the morning progresses. LLWS is present to start the day, but as mixing increases, expect gusts of 30-35 kts at most TAF sites by early afternoon. The gusty winds will diminish this evening. The other main issue into this evening will be the potential for thunderstorms to develop mid to late afternoon. The strongest storms could produce wind gusts in excess of 45 kts and small hail. Conditions will mostly be VFR, but brief drops to MVFR are possible. Otherwise, plan on VFR ceilings to give way to MVFR ceilings later this evening. Eventually, IFR or LIFR ceilings will develop late tonight from central to north-central WI. Alumbaugh && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Gusty south-southwest winds are expected today, highest over land. Cooler lake water should keep wind gusts below gale force, so a Small Craft Advisory goes into effect mid morning. We initially set the end time of 7PM this evening, but after a brief lull in the winds tonight, gusty westerly winds will develop. Therefore, we extended the end time all the way until 7PM Saturday. MRC && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LMZ521-522-541>543. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION... MARINE...