####018005690#### FXUS64 KJAN 161155 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 655 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Today through Saturday Night... The forecast remains on track for the short term period with global guidance continuing to show the ridge axis flattening across the southeast region today. This will allow for quasi-zonal flow to prevail across the CWA through the weekend with afternoon highs peaking into the upper 80s/lower 90s areawide. With this qusai-zonal flow expected across the region today, an unstable airmass will begin to move into the region. This airmass, combined with a couple of upper-level disturbances aloft and some northerly moisture flow from the Tennessee Valley, will allow for rain/storm chances across central/northern portions of our CWA later tonight through the Sunday evening/night timeframe. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be across northern portions of our forecast area including portions of southeast Arkansas and portions of northeast Louisiana. The "Marginal" risk (1 out of 5) for tonight will continue to be advertised with no changes made to the outlook. The main hazards will be damaging winds and hail up to quarter size for areas highlighted in the "Marginal" risk. No changes have been made to the severe graphic at this time for tonight and a "Slight" risk (2 out of 5) will continue to be advertised for northwest portions of our CWA. Damaging wind gust up to 60-70 mph and hail up to golf ball size will be the main concerns for areas highlighted in the "Slight" risk. A brief spin up tornado cannot be ruled out. Isolated severe storms will continue across our forecast area looking ahead into Saturday afternoon/evening with afternoon highs peaking in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Depending how the rain pans out come Saturday afternoon, it is possible that a couple of areas along and south of I-20 could see heat indices around 100 degrees. Regardless, the "Marginal" risk will continue to be advertised for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor. Damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size will be the main hazards for areas highlighted in the "Marginal" risk. A "Slight" risk will continue to be advertised for portions of the Delta including portions of southeast Arkansas. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall at times, with rainfall totals ranging between 0.5-1 inches with local higher amount possible especially for areas along and north of Hwy 82. Given that this system will moving quite fast across our CWA, flash flooding concerns will be low; however, some localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Sunday through Thursday... Another round of thunderstorms will occur heading into Sunday afternoon/evening with a few strong/isolated severe t-storms possible mainly for areas north of I-20. A "Marginal" risk has been introduced for Sunday, however there are some discrepancies that remain regarding the uncertainty of this system for Sunday. Nevertheless, trends will continued to be monitored and details will be ironed out as we get closer to Sunday. Rain chances will begin to decrease Sunday night into the new work week as a sfc ridge builds over the southeast CONUS. Quiet conditions will continue across much of our forecast area with a slight chance of scattered showers across portions of the Golden Triangle heading into Monday afternoon. Quiet weather conditions will occur across the area looking ahead into Tuesday morning as future global guidance shows the ridge axis beginning to slowly push east away from our forecast area giving us a small little break from the rain. A significant 1004mb low pressure system hovering over the Central Plains will push east towards the Ohio River Valley region Tuesday afternoon/evening. The associated cold front over southern Texas will track east towards the southeast region late Tuesday evening. This combined with southerly moisture flow from the Gulf will help reintroduce isolated to scattered showers/t-storm chances across our entire CWA. Storm chances will continue heading into Wednesday as the cold pushes east across our forecast area. Rain chances will start to diminish across the region looking ahead into Thursday as the cold front tracks southeast out of our forecast area towards the Gulf Coast giving us a nice little break from the rain. Weather conditions will remain quiet heading into Friday with mostly sunny skies by the weekend. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MVFR cigs wl prevail until after 15Z before improving. By 16Z VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide along with a gusty 20-25kt sw-s wind. The gusty wind will gradually subside after 23Z and VFR conditions wl continue to prevail until after 08Z Sat when MVFR cigs wl redevelop and prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 91 74 91 71 / 0 20 30 20 Meridian 92 72 91 71 / 0 20 40 20 Vicksburg 90 74 91 72 / 0 30 30 20 Hattiesburg 94 74 94 72 / 0 0 20 10 Natchez 89 74 91 72 / 0 10 10 10 Greenville 89 72 89 73 / 10 70 20 40 Greenwood 90 71 89 72 / 10 70 30 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /CR/22 ####018008053#### FXUS63 KBIS 161156 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 656 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainy and very windy today, with near-record cold high temperatures in the 40s. - Near to sub-freezing overnight temperatures across western and north central North Dakota tonight, and all but far southwest North Dakota Saturday night. - Rain chances return Sunday through Tuesday, highest southwest (as high as 90 percent) and lowest far north (around 30 percent). - Below normal temperatures expected through the middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Overall, the forecast remains on track. Rain is now beginning to fill back in east of Highway 83, and the surface low pressure is now centered just east of Fargo. Winds remain quite strong in Bowman County, with sustained speeds around 45 mph and gusts around 60 mph. A couple of isolated gusts over 60 mph are being noted in other parts of the state, so will need to monitor for potential expansion of the High Wind Warning. But for now do not anticipate gusts these strong becoming common outside of the far southwest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 452 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A strong occluded and stacked low is spinning over the southern Red River Valley early this morning. This continues to bring widespread rain to the western half of the state under the associated deformation zone, but the eastern half of the state has been under the influence of dry-slotting that has been very pronounced on water vapor imagery. Forecast guidance shows the stacked low slowly drifting eastward across northern Minnesota today, which will take the rain showers back into the eastern half of the state and eventually end rain from west to east later this afternoon and evening. The extensive cloud cover and precipitation will keep daytime temperatures mostly in the 40s, which are near record cold values at the major climate sites. Another concern for today is that the very tight pressure gradient extending west from the low and an associated overlaying +50 kt 850 mb jet will continue to promote very windy conditions. Early morning observations in Bowman County have persistently shown sustained speeds of 40 to 45 mph, and a 60 mph gust was reported at an NDAWN site. We have therefore upgraded Bowman County to a High Wind Warning, with near-term guidance favoring winds this strong to continue through at least late morning. The rest of western and central North Dakota remains under a Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT. As the low departs to the east tonight, a surface ridge will begin building into western North Dakota. With clouds favored to clear and winds becoming much lighter, temperatures are likely to fall into the lower 30s across much of the west, where the 25th percentile of the NBM distribution was utilized for our deterministic low temperature forecast. Lows were kept closer to the deterministic NBM elsewhere, and even nudged to the warmer half of the distribution where cloud cover is forecast to linger, which still brings temperatures down into the lower 30s along the international border. We have therefore elected to issue a Freeze Watch for tonight into Saturday morning for western and much of north central North Dakota. Upgrades to either a Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning will be needed later today. Additionally, the surface ridge could promote a favorable setup for fog formation across the west late tonight into Saturday morning, especially given the rainfall amounts of the past few days. The surface ridge axis is forecast to drift eastward across the state on Saturday. This will provide a break from the rain and wind, but temperatures will remain unseasonably cool despite some afternoon sun, with forecast highs ranging from the mid 40s northeast to upper 50s southwest. The eastward progression of the surface ridge is forecast to stall over eastern North Dakota Saturday night, allowing a southeasterly return flow to commence over far western North Dakota. The breezier conditions out west should keep overnight temperatures above freezing and prevent frost formation. But most of central and eastern North Dakota, as well as northwest parts of the state farther away from the Montana border, have at least medium chances for low temperatures Saturday night below freezing. A lighter northeasterly breeze eminating from the Manitoba surface high and an NBM sky cover forecast around 30 to 50 percent do not lend to strong radiational cooling. But even the warmer side of the NBM low temperature distribution for Saturday night brings near to sub-freezing temperatures to a large portion of north and central North Dakota. Frost/Freeze headlines will be necessary again Saturday night, but will hold off issuing anything for now in order to lessen confusion given the freeze/frost concerns for tonight. Another Colorado low type system is forecast to impact the Northern and Central Plains Sunday through Tuesday. Most solutions keep the highest QPF over South Dakota, but global ensembles show high chances for 0.25" and medium chances for 0.5" south of I-94, and higher-membership ensemble clusters show higher QPF threshold probabilities compared to the total ensemble mean. Rain probabilities decrease greatly to the north, but there are still medium chances for at least some measurable rain there over this time period. The NBM brings medium chances for rain into southwest North Dakota as early as Sunday morning, with PoPs increasing from southwest to northeast through Sunday night when they are highest (around 90 percent) in the far southwest. The Canadian surface high pressure, which by Monday morning is forecast to be closer to Hudson Bay, could then exert its influence and keep northern parts of the state relatively drier. All said, this system will not be nearly as prolific of a rain producer as the one currently impacting the region, but localized rain amounts over 1 inch near the South Dakota border are not out of question. A somewhat stagnant synoptic pattern keeps temperatures below normal through mid next week, but a distinct warming trend does begin to emerge in ensembles heading into the holiday weekend that could bring temperatures back closer to normal. The NBM maintains low to medium chances for rain through most of the rest of the week, but other than an emerging signal for a shortwave passage late Thursday, there are no indications of anything noteworthy in global ensemble datasets at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Rain will continue across the region through this afternoon, with MVFR to IFR visibility reductions at times. The rain should begin diminishing from west to east late this afternoon through the evening. Ceilings are mostly expected to be IFR through this morning. Improvement to MVFR and eventually VFR ceilings is expected in western North Dakota later this afternoon and evening, but central North Dakota is unlikely to improve above MVFR ceilings until early Saturday morning. Strong northwest winds with gusts as high as around 40-45 kts will continue through this afternoon and begin to taper off this evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>042-044>048-050-051. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for NDZ001>005-009>011-017>019-021-031>033-040-041-043-044. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NDZ043. && $$ UPDATE...Hollan DISCUSSION...Hollan AVIATION...Hollan ####018005067#### FXUS63 KGID 161159 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 659 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong northwest winds today. Gusts to 60 MPH are possible, mainly near and north of Highway 92. A High Wind Warning is in effect for these areas. - Light rain showers today. Most areas will not see measurable rain. - Severe thunderstorms are possible on both Sunday and Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 414 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Currently, a band of sprinkles stretches from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska. This band will continue eastward into the morning hours, but measurable precipitation is unlikely. A strong upper low passing to our north will push gusty northwest winds into the area today. The ECMWF/EPS have consistently shown wind gusts approaching/exceeding high-wind criteria (50kts...58 mph) for several runs. Forecast gusts from the high=resolution CAMs aren't quite as optimistic, but HRRR/RAP forecast soundings still indicate deep mixing with wind speeds at or above 50 kt at the top of the mixed layer. Additionally, some light rain showers are expected to push into northern parts of the area late this morning into the afternoon, potentially providing additional enhancement for winds. All this being considered, a High Wind Warning was issued for the areas that are most likely to see severe (58 MPH+) gusts. The rest of the area will be quite windy as well, with sustained wind speeds ranging from 25-40 MPH and gusts of 40-55 MPH (highest north). These winds, combined with with humidity in the 20-25 percent range, will also result in near-critical fire weather conditions, mainly for southern portions of the area where they see the least cloud cover. Any rain showers this afternoon will be light, and likely will remain confined to areas north of Highway 92. The probability for even 0.05" of rain is only 10-15% in these areas. Winds gradually diminish this evening into tonight. Clearing skies should allow temperatures to fall into the 40s in most areas...and possibly into the upper 30s in northern and western parts of the forecast area (Valley and Dawson counties). Saturday should be a very pleasant day across the area. Seasonable temperatures (70s), light winds, and mostly clear skies are expected. A weak shortwave will to move through the central Plains. Low chances for rain showers return late Saturday night, but any severe convection is expected to remain to our southeast. On Sunday, an upper trough is expected to deepen over the Rockies, pushing more warm/moist air into the central Plains. Exact details remain uncertain, but a surface low is expected to develop over eastern Colorado, with a warm front lifting northward across the area and a dryline setting up to our southwest. Convective parameters are favorable for supercells (40-50kt+ effective shear...MLCAPE 1500-2500J/kg+), but capping/coverage of storms remains the primary uncertainty. A strengthening LLJ will then keep some severe threat going well into the overnight hours. The latest NBM has a 60-90% chance for rain/thunderstorms across most of the area Sunday night, but beneficial rain is far from a "guarantee," but the northeastern half of the area dues show a 60% chance for 0.25" or more per the 00Z global ensembles. On Monday, another round of thunderstorms is possible as the upper trough ejects through the central Plains. Again, convective details are very uncertain at this range, but parameters appear favorable for at least some severe threat...especially eastern-southeastern parts of the area as indicated by the SPC outlook and AI-NWP convective forecasts. Some showers could continue into Tuesday, but the severe threat decreases as we move into a cooler post-frontal airmass. High temperatures on Tuesday are "only" expected to reach the 60s. Northern areas could even be stuck in the upper 50s! The forecast dries out for the middle of next week, but spotty chances for thunderstorms do return by the end of next week into the weekend. Temperatures also return to the 70s and 80s by the end of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected through the period. The main impact to aviation will be the strong northwest winds. Gusts in the 40-45kt range are expected through the afternoon. VFR cloud cover will increase during the afternoon as well, but any rain showers are favored to stay north of GRI/EAR. Winds back off this evening and skies clear as we head into Saturday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels