####018005102#### FXUS63 KLBF 171935 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 235 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms this evening across the western Sandhills. - Severe storms possible late Sunday afternoon and evening with an Enhanced Risk across the western Sandhills and southwest and a Slight Risk to the north and east across portions of central and north central Nebraska. Locally, very large hail and damaging winds, with an isolated tornado or two possible. - Rain and thunderstorm chances Monday into Monday night and again Thursday night through Saturday although the severe potential is uncertain at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Tonight, the upper trough will deepen across the Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners Region. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase along with an increase in atmospheric moisture. Low chances for showers and a few thunderstorms during the evening across the western Sandhills, and slightly further east after midnight. Coverage should be isolated to widely scattered, with any rainfall light and spotty at a trace to a tenth of an inch, in agreement with the latest 12Z HREF. A shortwave trough will lift from the southern Rockies into the Central Plains late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. The 12Z HREF deepens a surface low over eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon to near Yuma Colorado by 23Z with a warm front extending from near Yuma CO through Salina KS. Uncertainty remains as to how far north the warm front sets up, as the NAM has the surface low and warm front about 75 miles further south. There will be stratus developing Sunday morning north of the warm front across southwest Nebraska, which will persist into the afternoon. However, clearing is expect to our south across northeast Colorado and far southwest Nebraska for destabilization to occur. North of the warm front, MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg is expected from extreme northeast Colorado into far southwest Nebraska amid 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Forecast soundings show very long hodographs, with a subset of these forecast soundings also depicting enlarged/curved low- level hodographs. Supercells are expected to be the dominant mode, with large hail the main threat. At least a few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and severe gusts may also occur, along with a few tornadoes possible. SPC has upgraded to an Enhanced Risk for areas generally south of Highway 2 and west of Highway 83, which includes the southeast Panhandle, west central and southwest Nebraska. The timing of greatest concern is from 5pm CDT until 10pm CDT. Elevated instability will exist mid and late evening with strong forcing supportive for elevated thunderstorms further north into north central Nebraska. 70 to 90+ POPs forecast Sunday night. Areas of heavy rainfall, with a half inch to over an inch forecast, with highest amounts across the Sandhills from Oshkosh through Mullen. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for the most up to date information including timing details, updated threats, and locations of greatest impact. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 On Monday, a closed low is forecast to stall out over the northern panhandle. POPs are likely to categorical across north central Nebraska, to chance POPs southwest. Surface low pressure will remain across central Nebraska. Embedded thunderstorms are expected with the showers. A few strong storms will be possible across the east, where high instability exists. Showers and a few thunderstorms still likely Monday night into Tuesday as the upper low slowly moves east into northwest Iowa by Tuesday afternoon. Shower chances linger into Wednesday across the north with dry conditions Thursday as a weak transitory upper ridge move across. Low chances for showers and storms returns Thursday night into next Saturday, when quasi-zonal flow is shown to persist. Temperatures coolest on Tuesday, influenced by the upper low with highs only near 50 north central. Temperatures begin to rise into the upper 50s to low 70s Wednesday, to the 70s Thursday through Saturday, with low 80s southwest by Friday- Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 VFR conditions will continue at the KLBF and KVTN terminals through tonight. After 12Z, stratus will develop and spread northward across southwest Nebraska. MVFR ceilings near OVC025 are forecast at KLBF by 16Z, near the end of the TAF period. Southeast winds will also increase Sunday morning, with gusts to 25KT at KLBF and KVTN after 15Z. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Roberg ####018008302#### FXUS61 KOKX 171935 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 335 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves across the area this evening. Low pressure slowly moves across New England on Sunday sending a series of surface troughs across the area. The low slowly exits the New England coast on Monday as high pressure gradually builds in from the northwest through Tuesday. Another frontal system impacts the area Wednesday into Thursday, then exits northeast into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Vertically stacked low pressure over the Great Lakes region will send a cold front across the area this evening. Middle level drying has taken place this afternoon behind a departing surface trough and weakening convective shortwave aloft. Instability has been increasing, but there is no organized trigger to develop new convection until the actual cold front enters the area this evening. Most of the area will stay dry for the rest of the afternoon with an isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm possible well NW of the NYC metro. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible as the cold front crosses the area this evening. The higher probabilities for showers/storms continue to be across the Lower Hudson Valley and potentially interior SW CT. Locations closer to the coast may largely stay dry with just an isolated shower/storm possible. SPC still has a marginal risk in place for the entire CWA. If a severe thunderstorm occurs it will be isolated and should be north and west of the NYC metro. The main threat is from damaging wind gusts. Loss of daytime heating after sunset should limit the already low risk for a severe storm. The cold front will continue moving offshore through midnight. This which will bring an end to the shower/storm potential. The flow behind the front will become W allowing drier air to work into the area. The drier air will prevent low cloud and fog development and lead to a mostly clear overnight once any lingering mid and high clouds depart overnight. Lows look to fall into the lower to middle 50s inland and the upper 50s to around 60 close to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The low pressure system will slowly move across New England on Sunday. High pressure will be located well to our west with the area under the influence of cyclonic flow at the surface and aloft. Sunday should start out mostly sunny before becoming mostly cloudy into the afternoon. The lingering cold pocket aloft may be enough to generate a few brief showers across the interior in the afternoon and evening. The pressure gradient will steepen through the afternoon as thew low begins pushing towards the Canadian Maritimes. This will set the stage for gusty W winds, 25 to 30 mph, especially in the afternoon and early evening. High temperatures will be close to seasonable levels in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The low will only slowly move east Sunday night and may become nearly stationary near the Maritimes Monday and Monday night. High pressure slowly builds towards the region during this time frame. The region will lie between the two systems which will allow breezy W-NW winds to continue through Monday. Gusts on Monday are likely to be similar to those on Sunday and generally 25-30 mph. Temperatures will also be similar to those observed on Sunday. The atmosphere continues to dry out Sunday night through Monday with the anticipation of skies becoming mostly clear to start next week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Message: * A frontal system may will bring rainfall Wednesday & Thursday, possibly into Friday. High pressure on Tuesday will gradually break down into Tuesday night ahead of an approaching frontal system. Overall, it should be a pleasant day with highs in the mid-60s to low-70s. Mostly sunny to start with increasing clouds in the afternoon and evening. Overcast skies will lead to less efficient radiational cooling Tuesday night with lows in the mid-50s to upper-40s. Most 12Z guidance has honed in on a time frame for impacts from a frontal system, but track still varies somewhat. A low over KY/OH late Tuesday will approach the area Tuesday night and pass near or to the south of the area Wednesday into Thursday, pushing more north and/or east of the area on Friday. This will bring a period of wet weather. Given elevated PWATs and ample lift, there is a chance for a period of moderate rainfall. With some hints at marginal instability, a few isolated thunderstorms may occur on Wednesday. Confidence in showers is higher by midday Wednesday into Thursday afternoon, but confidence is lower Thursday night and especially Friday as some models have the low lingering in the area a little longer, while others bring the low to a quick exit. Overall, temperatures will be near or slightly below normal levels Tuesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front moves across the region this evening. VFR. There remains a low chance of isolated SHRA or TSRA from 21- 02Z, with the best chance for impact being at KSWF. PROB30s carried through the early evening for the low chance of TSRA. MVFR cigs possible tomorrow for northern terminals though mainly VFR categories are expected for most terminals. Isolated SHRA can't be ruled out, but shouldn't be impactful. S/SW winds around 10-15kt through the afternoon with some gusts upwards of 23kt possible. A cold frontal passage late this evening will allow winds to shift to the W/NW, and may become gusty late tonight. Gusts are more likely during the day Sunday with upwards of 30kt gusts possible. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low thunderstorm chances for late afternoon and into the evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Sunday PM: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers inland with MVFR possible. W winds G20-30kt. Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Monday NW winds G20-25kt day into evening. Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers likely, especially in the afternoon, a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. E wind gusts 15-20kt. Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in showers. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions on the waters through tonight will remain below SCA levels. An increasing pressure gradient on Sunday will promote gusty W flow and gusts 25-30 kt. Winds will likely become NW Sunday night and continue to gust 25-30 kt. Have therefore extended the SCA on Sunday through Sunday night. The gusty winds should continue on Monday with a further extension of the SCA probable. Winds weaken Monday evening bringing gusts below 25 kt. Ocean seas build to marginal SCA levels Sunday and Sunday night and then slowly subside Monday and Monday night. Winds and seas remain below advisory levels on all the forecast waters Tuesday into early Wednesday. With the approach of a frontal system Wednesday, easterly flow will be increasing. By late day, SCA conditions may develop on the ocean waters. With the increased and persistent east flow into Thursday, winds and seas on the ocean waters will likely be at SCA levels. As low pressure tracks northeast of the area Thursday night a northerly flow develops and winds diminish. However, ocean seas are likely to remain elevated into Thursday night. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BR/DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...MW MARINE...BR/DS HYDROLOGY...BR/DS ####018004993#### FXUS65 KLKN 171936 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1236 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * A few strong thunderstorms this afternoon * Robust, gusty northwest winds Sunday * Slick roads in higher elevations Sunday * Widespread freezing temperatures Sunday night && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1236 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025 A storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon through Sunday evening, resulting in periods of valley rain and mountain snow. The majority of this precipitation will fall this afternoon and this evening. A few strong thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening. Snow levels should fall to about 6,000 feet Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025 A few strong thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon into this evening along and just ahead of a cold front. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes and wind gusts near 45 mph. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon: Owyhee - 38% Jackpot - 34% Battle Mountain -33% Carlin - 32% Winnemucca - 31% Elko - 29% Eureka - 29% Wells - 28% Spring Creek - 27% Ely - 26% In wake of the aforementioned cold front, snow levels will drop to around 6,000 feet Sunday morning. This will result in snow falling in higher elevations along Highway 50 and Mountain City Highway. There will be little to no accumulation, although higher elevation roadways could become slick in spots. Strong, gusty northwest winds are anticipated Sunday in Northern Elko County. A Wind Advisory may be required. High temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada Sunday afternoon will be around fifteen degrees below normal for this time of year. Low temperatures in Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night will be seven to nine degrees below seasonal values. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing in the coldest valleys of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night. Take precautions to protect vegetation from freezing temperatures. Here are probabilities of temperatures below 32 degrees for locations in Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night: Ely - 95% Spring Creek - 80% Eureka - 80% Elko - 75% Jackpot - 70% Carlin - 65% Wells - 65% Owyhee - 65% Battle Mountain - 55% Winnemucca - 45% An upper-level area of low pressure will open up into a trough of low pressure as it progresses southeastward across Utah Monday. A ridge of high pressure will pass eastward over Nevada Monday night. Zonal flow aloft should keep the storm track north of the Silver State Tuesday through next Saturday. A warming trend is expected Monday through Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, high temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will remain above seasonal values each afternoon Thursday through next Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025 Intermittent MVFR and IFR conditions are possible at all terminals Saturday due to low CIGS and scattered showers and thunderstorms lowering VIS. Winds may be gusty and erratic in and around thunderstorm activity through Saturday evening. Saturday afternoon and evening gusty winds in general are expected at all terminals between 20-30KTs. While wind speeds will relax slightly Saturday night that is not the case at KTPH where gusts in the 30-35KT continue into Sunday. Thunderstorm activity comes to an end this evening but lingering showers continue at KEKO and KELY until Sunday morning. Gusty winds will ramp back up early Sunday morning before sunrise and continue through Sunday afternoon at all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1236 PM PDT Sat May 17 2025 A low pressure system will impact Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon through Sunday evening, resulting in periods of valley rain and mountain snow. Most of this precipitation will fall this afternoon and this evening. A few strong thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon into this evening. Thunderstorm probabilities will vary from about 30 to 40 percent in Northern Nevada to 20 to 30 percent in Central Nevada. Snow levels should fall to about 6,000 feet Sunday morning. Gusty northwest winds are expected Sunday most of the day Sunday. Temperatures will likely fall below freezing in the coldest valleys Sunday night. A warming trend is anticipated Monday through Thursday. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...87 SYNOPSIS...87 DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...87 ####018011634#### FXUS64 KBMX 171937 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 237 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025 - There is a (Level 1 out of 5) risk of severe storms this afternoon across the southern portions of the area. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible. - There is a (Level 2 to 3 out of 5) risk of severe storms on Tuesday for Central Alabama. The best chances will be generally along and northwest of the Interstate 20 corridor. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025 This afternoon. A zonal flow aloft prevails over the area today while a cold front extends from Central Ohio southwest across the Mid-South and further west across the Central Plains. A shortwave in the mid levels was analyzed by RAP 13 km analysis over our eastern counties. The surface cold front to our north will drift further south, approaching the Alabama/Tennessee State Line by late afternoon. Expect scattered chances for showers and thunderstorm activity to continue across the southern portion of the area with lesser chances across the northern counties. Winds will be from the southwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s in the higher elevations far east to readings in the upper 80s across portions of the northwest and southeast. Tonight. Global and regional guidance depicts developing shortwave disturbances over the Southern Plains that will rapidly progress eastward toward the area toward midnight. Shortwave disturbances will move over the area through the early morning hours on Sunday. The cold front looks to continue to drift southward, approaching the Interstate 20 corridor before midnight, before lifting back northward into Southern Tennessee after midnight as a wave of low pressure develops across the Mid-South Region and moves east. Isolated (20-35%) chances for showers and some thunderstorms are forecast across the southwest and far west counties this evening, then expanding eastward across the western half of the area toward midnight. Expect scattered (30-60%) chances for showers and storms across the northern half of the area before sunrise with isolated (10-35%) chances across the south-central portions of the forecast area. Winds will become more southerly overnight with reduced speeds from 3-5 mph. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s northeast to readings near 70 southwest. Sunday. A few more shortwave disturbances are progged to continue passing east over the area through late morning Sunday, followed by shortwave ridging aloft build into the area from the west later in the afternoon. The surface front to the north of our area will become stationary as it extends from across North Georgia and the Carolinas northwest across the Mid-South and Central Plains. Expect scattered (30-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms across the northern quarter and potions of our east-central counties Sunday morning through early afternoon with isolated (15-40%) chances across the rest of the forecast area. Scattered (30-45%) chances for showers and some thunderstorms are forecast across all but the far southern portion of the area Sunday afternoon where isolated (10-30%) activity is expected. Winds will be from the southwest at 4-8 mph and high temperatures will range from the lower 80s far north and in the higher elevations east to readings around 90 generally along and south of the U.S. Highway 80 corridor. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025 Sunday night through Tuesday night. Shortwave ridging will become centered over much of the Lower and Mid Mississippi River Valley Regions Sunday night before shifting further east over our area on Monday. Deep troughing over the Four Corner States Sunday evening will take on a negative tilt as it swings northeast over the Central Plains overnight Sunday into Monday. Expect the shortwave ridge axis to become positioned to the east of the state Monday night into Tuesday while a secondary embedded disturbance rounds the trough base over New Mexico late Monday, resulting in a more elongated and deeper mid-level trough. A few shortwave disturbances will develop over South Central Texas and swiftly move northeast over the Mid-South Region as the longwave trough takes on a more negative tilt and moves over the Northern and Central Plains during the day on Tuesday. While the closed upper low will become centered over the Midwest, a sharp negatively-tilted shortwave trough is progged to swing northeast over the Mid-South region later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Surface low pressure will rapidly develop across the Central Plains while the surface stationary front will remain to the north of the area Monday and into the day on Tuesday. Low pressure will move east across the Middle Ohio River Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday while a surface cold front will approach the area from the west, entering the northwest portion of the state overnight Tuesday night. A few (10-20%) lingering showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two will remain possible generally near and northwest of the Interstate 59 corridor Sunday evening followed by isolated (15-35%) chances for showers and some thunderstorms across the northeast and far northern counties on Monday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast Monday night across the area before isolated (15-25%) chances for showers and storms will be possible across the northwest Tuesday morning then increasing to scattered (30-60%) chances for showers and thunderstorms near and northwest of Interstate 59 with isolated (10-30%) chances northwest of the Interstate 85 corridor toward the Interstate 59 corridor with dry conditions further southeast. Scattered to numerous (40-70%) chances for showers and storms are forecast for areas generally along and north of the Interstate 59 corridor Tuesday night with isolated (15-40%) chances for showers and storms generally near and northwest of the Interstate 85 corridor with very low (5-15%) chances further southeast. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s far east to around 70 west Sunday night followed by lows from the mid 60s east to the low 70s far west Monday night and lows from the lower 60s far northwest to the lower 70s south and southeast Tuesday night. Highs both Monday and Tuesday will range from the mid 80s far northwest and in the higher terrain east to readings in the lower 90s across the southern third of the area. Wednesday through Friday. The shortwave trough will quickly swing further north over the Western Ohio River Valley Region Wednesday with a zonal flow pattern becoming re-established over the local area. Mid-level troughing will persist over much of the Great Lakes and Northeast States while broad ridging will build over the Desert Southwest and Four Corners States late Wednesday into Thursday. A shortwave trough will dive southeast from over the Midwest and Western Ohio Valley towards the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley Regions through the day Thursday and progress further southeast to over Central Georgia and the Carolinas by Friday morning. With longwave troughing over much of the Eastern Seaboard, Amplified broad mid- level ridging will build over much of the Plains and Intermountain West. The cold front will quickly push through the area, clearing much of the Southeast Atlantic Coast by early Thursday with strong elongated surface high pressure extending from Central Canada southward into the Central Plains. By Friday, surface high pressure will extend from north of the Great Lakes south along the Mississippi River down across the Northern Gulf Coast Region. Isolated to scattered (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast generally along and southeast of the Interstate 59 corridor Wednesday morning with low (10-20%) chances northwest. By afternoon on Wednesday, isolated (15-30%) chances for showers and some thunderstorms will be possible across much of the area before dry conditions return areawide Wednesday night and will persist through Friday. Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 70s northwest and in the higher elevations east to readings in the upper 80s southeast, followed by highs from around 70 far north and in the higher terrain east to values near 80 south. Highs Friday will range from the mid 70s far north and in the higher elevations east to readings in the lower 80s south. Lows Wednesday night will range from the lower 50s north to around 60 south-central followed by lows from the upper 40s northeast to the low to mid 50s south and southwest. 05 Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 106 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025 The disturbed pattern will remain into the long-term, as multiple disturbances clip the region in varying capacity through Monday. However, the most organized system will begin to push into the area by Tuesday Night, as a trough and cold front begin to move into the Midwest. While the best forcing with this system will remain in the Midwest, additional strong to severe thunderstorm activity can not be ruled out given a somewhat unstable airmass. Temperatures should fall behind this front into Wednesday, with highs dropping upper-70s and 80s. However, they should really fall into Thursday, with highs anticipated to range in the low to upper-70s area wide. /44/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025 We have some lingering MVFR cigs behind this mornings convection. Conditions should go VFR by 20z. More convection is possible in the S this afternoon, only have a VCSH in for MGM at this time, not as confident enough to put TS in for this afternoon ATTM. Another wave of convection will move W to E after midnight tonight. Have some TSRAs mentioned as it progresses, along with more MVFR to IFR cigs for late tonight after ~8z through mid morning ~ 15z after the next wave. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to be possible for portions of Central Alabama this afternoon and again overnight into Sunday morning. Minimum RH values this afternoon will only decrease in the mid to upper 40 percent range across the far north with higher values elsewhere. Minimum RH values on Sunday afternoon will be in mid to upper 40 percent range across portions of the southeast and far southern counties. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 63 85 64 88 / 30 60 20 20 Anniston 66 85 67 88 / 30 60 20 10 Birmingham 67 85 68 88 / 40 40 20 10 Tuscaloosa 69 88 70 88 / 40 40 10 0 Calera 69 86 69 88 / 40 40 10 10 Auburn 69 86 68 88 / 20 40 10 0 Montgomery 69 91 68 91 / 20 30 10 0 Troy 69 91 68 91 / 20 30 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05/44 AVIATION...08 ####018005983#### FXUS64 KMEG 171938 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 230 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 - Thunderstorms will return late tonight. There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms over southwestern portions of the Midsouth with a Marginal Risk across NE Arkansas, SW TN, and north Mississippi. The primary risks will be damaging winds and large hail. - An unsettled weather pattern will continue through Tuesday with chances for showers and thunderstorm each day. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe each day and night. - Cooler and less humid conditions will follow for Wednesday through Friday behind a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 A gorgeous late spring day across the Mid-South at this hour. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s under blue skies. The latest surface analysis places a cold front from Lake Huron south through Lake Eerie and southwest back through the Ohio River Valley to just south of I-40. Behind the front, drier air is working its way into the region. This break from the humidity will be short-lived as winds turn back around to the southeast this evening and keep dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Aloft, mainly zonal flow is prevalent across the Lower Mississippi Valley with a trough over west Texas. Dry and benign weather will take a backseat to active weather tonight through the middle of next week. A shortwave, currently located over north central Texas, will translate east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. A MCS is forecast to develop this evening near the ArkLaTex and push east into southwestern portions of the Mid-South overnight. Ahead of this feature, a tight MLCAPE gradient will develop over NW MS and extreme SE AR ranging from 800 to 2500 J/kg over just 50 miles or so. HRRR model guidance suggests that at least a marginal wind and hail threat will occur from approximately 11PM through 4AM. The HREF supports both the timing and intensity of this activity. Uncertainty remains as to how far north the showers and thunderstorms will occur. Nonetheless, a Slight Risk (2/5) exists across the SE portions of the Mid-South for large hail and damaging winds with a Marginal Risk (1/5) extending NE across NE AR, SW TN, and the rest of N MS. Timing of showers and thunderstorms will be nebulous at best over the next couple of days, as multiple weak perturbations translate through weak southwest flow aloft. HREF guidance suggests a mostly dry Sunday afternoon, however, NBM guidance seems to be heavily weighted towards the HRRR, generating 60-70 PoPs across the majority of the region. Decided to decrease PoPs considerably for tomorrow afternoon, warranting a 30-40 PoP at best, due to uncertainty redevelopment in the afternoon hours. A more organized threat of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Sunday night into Monday morning as a shortwave helps lift a warm front back north through the region. An unstable warm sector will be in place on both Monday and Tuesday, as dewpoints swell into the lower 70s. A couple of weak waves will rotate into the region Monday morning, afternoon, and evening. The strength of storms will depend largely on the instability available and strength of each successive wave. A Marginal Risk (1/5) for winds and hail is currently in effect for both days and nights, which is hard to argue against. Nonetheless, it will be more a nowcast each day and night, due to the small scale waves impacting the region. A more organized threat will occur on Tuesday, as a large trough digs across the Central Plains. This trough is progged to deepen and take on a negative tilt as it moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. 20 to 30 meter height falls will overspread a moderately unstable airmass Tuesday afternoon. Preliminary soundings show large looping hodographs, 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, and steep lapse rates. Chances for a busted forecast is much less than yesterday's as the cold front accelerates quickly through the region and there is good low and mid level lift. The parameter space appears plenty healthy enough to support an Slight Risk (2/5) to Enhanced Risk (3/5) of severe thunderstorms for a large portion of the Mid-South. All modes of severe weather are on the table as shear and instability will be in the medium to high range. The evolution of this system will need to be watched over the coming days as the threat could increase. Drier and cooler weather will persist Wednesday through late next week as surface high pressure builds in behind a cold front. AC3 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Predominantly VFR forecast expected with some impacts early tomorrow morning from showers and storms. Very clear skies, with the exception of a few cirrus clouds, and light winds will prevail through this afternoon. Storms from the west will approach north Mississippi tonight with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms up to JBR. Added TEMPO groups where confidence is highest in weather related hazards at MEM/TUP and PROB30s for rain showers at JBR/MKL. Forecast confidence is somewhat low for tonight as models have been back and forth regarding the timing and extent of MVFR impacts. Thunder could occur at JBR/MEM but confidence was too low to include at this time. This forecast will likely change in the coming hours as models refine their outlook on tonight. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...JAB ####018011642#### FXUS64 KBMX 171939 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 237 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025 - There is a (Level 1 out of 5) risk of severe storms this afternoon across the southern portions of the area. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible. - There is a (Level 2 to 3 out of 5) risk of severe storms on Tuesday for portions of Central Alabama. The best chances will be generally along and northwest of the Interstate 20 corridor. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025 This afternoon. A zonal flow aloft prevails over the area today while a cold front extends from Central Ohio southwest across the Mid-South and further west across the Central Plains. A shortwave in the mid levels was analyzed by RAP 13 km analysis over our eastern counties. The surface cold front to our north will drift further south, approaching the Alabama/Tennessee State Line by late afternoon. Expect scattered chances for showers and thunderstorm activity to continue across the southern portion of the area with lesser chances across the northern counties. Winds will be from the southwest at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from the lower 80s in the higher elevations far east to readings in the upper 80s across portions of the northwest and southeast. Tonight. Global and regional guidance depicts developing shortwave disturbances over the Southern Plains that will rapidly progress eastward toward the area toward midnight. Shortwave disturbances will move over the area through the early morning hours on Sunday. The cold front looks to continue to drift southward, approaching the Interstate 20 corridor before midnight, before lifting back northward into Southern Tennessee after midnight as a wave of low pressure develops across the Mid-South Region and moves east. Isolated (20-35%) chances for showers and some thunderstorms are forecast across the southwest and far west counties this evening, then expanding eastward across the western half of the area toward midnight. Expect scattered (30-60%) chances for showers and storms across the northern half of the area before sunrise with isolated (10-35%) chances across the south-central portions of the forecast area. Winds will become more southerly overnight with reduced speeds from 3-5 mph. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s northeast to readings near 70 southwest. Sunday. A few more shortwave disturbances are progged to continue passing east over the area through late morning Sunday, followed by shortwave ridging aloft build into the area from the west later in the afternoon. The surface front to the north of our area will become stationary as it extends from across North Georgia and the Carolinas northwest across the Mid-South and Central Plains. Expect scattered (30-50%) chances for showers and thunderstorms across the northern quarter and potions of our east-central counties Sunday morning through early afternoon with isolated (15-40%) chances across the rest of the forecast area. Scattered (30-45%) chances for showers and some thunderstorms are forecast across all but the far southern portion of the area Sunday afternoon where isolated (10-30%) activity is expected. Winds will be from the southwest at 4-8 mph and high temperatures will range from the lower 80s far north and in the higher elevations east to readings around 90 generally along and south of the U.S. Highway 80 corridor. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 216 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025 Sunday night through Tuesday night. Shortwave ridging will become centered over much of the Lower and Mid Mississippi River Valley Regions Sunday night before shifting further east over our area on Monday. Deep troughing over the Four Corner States Sunday evening will take on a negative tilt as it swings northeast over the Central Plains overnight Sunday into Monday. Expect the shortwave ridge axis to become positioned to the east of the state Monday night into Tuesday while a secondary embedded disturbance rounds the trough base over New Mexico late Monday, resulting in a more elongated and deeper mid-level trough. A few shortwave disturbances will develop over South Central Texas and swiftly move northeast over the Mid-South Region as the longwave trough takes on a more negative tilt and moves over the Northern and Central Plains during the day on Tuesday. While the closed upper low will become centered over the Midwest, a sharp negatively-tilted shortwave trough is progged to swing northeast over the Mid-South region later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Surface low pressure will rapidly develop across the Central Plains while the surface stationary front will remain to the north of the area Monday and into the day on Tuesday. Low pressure will move east across the Middle Ohio River Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday while a surface cold front will approach the area from the west, entering the northwest portion of the state overnight Tuesday night. A few (10-20%) lingering showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm or two will remain possible generally near and northwest of the Interstate 59 corridor Sunday evening followed by isolated (15-35%) chances for showers and some thunderstorms across the northeast and far northern counties on Monday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast Monday night across the area before isolated (15-25%) chances for showers and storms will be possible across the northwest Tuesday morning then increasing to scattered (30-60%) chances for showers and thunderstorms near and northwest of Interstate 59 with isolated (10-30%) chances northwest of the Interstate 85 corridor toward the Interstate 59 corridor with dry conditions further southeast. Scattered to numerous (40-70%) chances for showers and storms are forecast for areas generally along and north of the Interstate 59 corridor Tuesday night with isolated (15-40%) chances for showers and storms generally near and northwest of the Interstate 85 corridor with very low (5-15%) chances further southeast. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s far east to around 70 west Sunday night followed by lows from the mid 60s east to the low 70s far west Monday night and lows from the lower 60s far northwest to the lower 70s south and southeast Tuesday night. Highs both Monday and Tuesday will range from the mid 80s far northwest and in the higher terrain east to readings in the lower 90s across the southern third of the area. Wednesday through Friday. The shortwave trough will quickly swing further north over the Western Ohio River Valley Region Wednesday with a zonal flow pattern becoming re-established over the local area. Mid-level troughing will persist over much of the Great Lakes and Northeast States while broad ridging will build over the Desert Southwest and Four Corners States late Wednesday into Thursday. A shortwave trough will dive southeast from over the Midwest and Western Ohio Valley towards the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley Regions through the day Thursday and progress further southeast to over Central Georgia and the Carolinas by Friday morning. With longwave troughing over much of the Eastern Seaboard, Amplified broad mid- level ridging will build over much of the Plains and Intermountain West. The cold front will quickly push through the area, clearing much of the Southeast Atlantic Coast by early Thursday with strong elongated surface high pressure extending from Central Canada southward into the Central Plains. By Friday, surface high pressure will extend from north of the Great Lakes south along the Mississippi River down across the Northern Gulf Coast Region. Isolated to scattered (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast generally along and southeast of the Interstate 59 corridor Wednesday morning with low (10-20%) chances northwest. By afternoon on Wednesday, isolated (15-30%) chances for showers and some thunderstorms will be possible across much of the area before dry conditions return areawide Wednesday night and will persist through Friday. Highs Wednesday will range from the upper 70s northwest and in the higher elevations east to readings in the upper 80s southeast, followed by highs from around 70 far north and in the higher terrain east to values near 80 south. Highs Friday will range from the mid 70s far north and in the higher elevations east to readings in the lower 80s south. Lows Wednesday night will range from the lower 50s north to around 60 south-central followed by lows from the upper 40s northeast to the low to mid 50s south and southwest. 05 Previous long-term discussion: (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 106 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025 The disturbed pattern will remain into the long-term, as multiple disturbances clip the region in varying capacity through Monday. However, the most organized system will begin to push into the area by Tuesday Night, as a trough and cold front begin to move into the Midwest. While the best forcing with this system will remain in the Midwest, additional strong to severe thunderstorm activity can not be ruled out given a somewhat unstable airmass. Temperatures should fall behind this front into Wednesday, with highs dropping upper-70s and 80s. However, they should really fall into Thursday, with highs anticipated to range in the low to upper-70s area wide. /44/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2025 We have some lingering MVFR cigs behind this mornings convection. Conditions should go VFR by 20z. More convection is possible in the S this afternoon, only have a VCSH in for MGM at this time, not as confident enough to put TS in for this afternoon ATTM. Another wave of convection will move W to E after midnight tonight. Have some TSRAs mentioned as it progresses, along with more MVFR to IFR cigs for late tonight after ~8z through mid morning ~ 15z after the next wave. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to be possible for portions of Central Alabama this afternoon and again overnight into Sunday morning. Minimum RH values this afternoon will only decrease in the mid to upper 40 percent range across the far north with higher values elsewhere. Minimum RH values on Sunday afternoon will be in mid to upper 40 percent range across portions of the southeast and far southern counties. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 63 85 64 88 / 30 60 20 20 Anniston 66 85 67 88 / 30 60 20 10 Birmingham 67 85 68 88 / 40 40 20 10 Tuscaloosa 69 88 70 88 / 40 40 10 0 Calera 69 86 69 88 / 40 40 10 10 Auburn 69 86 68 88 / 20 40 10 0 Montgomery 69 91 68 91 / 20 30 10 0 Troy 69 91 68 91 / 20 30 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05/44 AVIATION...08