####018007842#### FXUS62 KMLB 161331 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 931 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 - Increasingly hot conditions forecast for East Central Florida this weekend and early next week with widespread low to mid 90s and near record high temperatures. - Peak heat indices forecast to reach 100-105 this weekend into early next week. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will affect individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. - Very low rain chances (10% or less) through next Wednesday. Drought conditions may worsen/expand as a result. && .UPDATE... Issued at 931 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Local radar imagery shows dry weather and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over east central Florida. High pressure (~1018mb) is situated over the eastern Gulf of America and the state of Florida. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds are from the west-southwest at around 5-10mph. Dry and hot conditions are forecast today with high pressure over Florida. Above normal (~5-10F+) to near record highs are forecast this afternoon with ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles indicating temperatures at the 97.5th to maximum percentile for this time of year. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in the mid 90s to 101F degrees are forecast under mostly sunny skies. There is a Moderate HeatRisk for most of east central Florida. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate hydration. It is recommended that those who spend extended periods of time outside this afternoon and early evening to drink plenty of water, wear light-colored clothing, reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade, and take breaks in an air conditioned facility. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Today...A mid-level ridge (591-592dm) over the Gulf will nose NE across the FL peninsula and result in rising heights and increased subsidence. In the low levels, Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain across south central FL, promoting a light offshore wind flow to start the day, turning onshore behind the sea breeze this afternoon. Overall dry, subsident airmass will limit even fair weather cumulus from developing though there will be cirrus/cirrostratus streaming SE. These high clouds will be pretty thin so they should not affect max temps much. Widespread max temps in the mid 90s across interior sections as well as inland portions of the coastal counties. Even coastal Volusia will reach the mid 90s before a delayed sea breeze develops. This will put Daytona Beach in a good position to equal (or even exceed) its record high of 94F (see below). Heat indices will also be on the climb with peak afternoon values in the upper 90s/near 100. Sat-Wed...The deep layer ridging will persist producing hot temperatures and rain chances no higher than 10 percent. Widespread mid 90s will continue over the interior with a few upper 90s possible with potential for one or more record highs to be equaled or even exceeded. Coastal sections will hold in the lower 90s but there is a better chance for a more delayed sea breeze along the Volusia coast where the offshore flow is a bit stronger so Daytona Beach may again approach their record high on Sat (See below). Peak heat indices are forecast to reach 100 to 105 each day inland from the coast. Widespread coverage of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast with Major HeatRisk impacts possible Orlando metro Sun-Tue. It is worth noting HeatRisk takes into account the time of year, so while these temperatures and heat indices are not unusual for our summertime, they are well above normal for mid May and folks are not at all acclimated to it. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Thu...A weak cool front is forecast to bring the next small chance (20-30%) for measurable rainfall on Thu. If timing becomes faster, may need to move these low rain chances to Wed but did not want to show 2 days of rain chances per NBM. Both GFS and ECMWF show a return to onshore flow late next week behind this front which would bring max temps down to more seasonable mid to upper 80s even if not much rainfall materializes. && .MARINE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain nearly stationary across south central Florida, roughly across Lake Okeechobee and northernmost Bahamas, through the weekend and into early next week. This pattern will produce largely favorable boating conditions with a light offshore (W-SW) flow each morning shifting E-SE increasing 10-14 knots near the coast behind the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore through Sat then 1-2 FT all waters Sun-Tue. Chances for precipitation continue to be very low during this period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 633 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light and variable winds early this morning will become W/SW around 5-8 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze will once again form in the afternoon (forming and moving inland earlier from KMLB southward), backing the winds E/SE along the coast and increasing to 10-14 KT. Winds will then generally become light and variable by 00Z before becoming W/SW and increasing to 5-8KT by mid morning on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Soils will continue to dry out next several days with no rain in the forecast and temperatures reaching the low and mid 90s daily. In addition, relatively dry air will produce min RH values of 30-35 percent over the interior today and Saturday but winds will be light (10 mph or less) so conditions will not reach Red Flag criteria. Winds will turn onshore each afternoon behind the sea breeze, although its inland penetration will be slow and onset delayed especially north of the Cape. Min RH values close to the coast south of the Cape will hold near 50 percent. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Record highs the next 4 days (Fri-Mon): DAB 16-May 94 1994 LEE 16-May 95 1985 SFB 16-May 97 1967 MCO 16-May 99 1922 MLB 16-May 95 1995 VRB 16-May 95 1995 FPR 16-May 94 2022 DAB 17-May 95 1963 LEE 17-May 96 1991 SFB 17-May 96 2001 MCO 17-May 97 1915 MLB 17-May 97 1963 VRB 17-May 95 2023 FPR 17-May 95 2008 DAB 18-May 97 1995 LEE 18-May 98 1996 SFB 18-May 95 2024 MCO 18-May 97 1930 MLB 18-May 96 1995 VRB 18-May 96 2024 FPR 18-May 98 1995 DAB 19-May 94 1995 LEE 19-May 94 1991 SFB 19-May 97 1960 MCO 19-May 98 1908 MLB 19-May 95 1995 VRB 19-May 95 1995 FPR 19-May 97 1995 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 69 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 96 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 91 72 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 91 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 94 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 96 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 96 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Watson ####018006384#### FXUS63 KAPX 161333 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 933 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, dry, and somewhat windy conditions results in elevated wildfire danger today. - Another round of showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight. - Cool weather and cloudy skies return this weekend. High pressure continues quiet weather through the midweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 933 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Inherited forecast remains on track at this juncture. Cyclonic dry slotting firmly in place, with just a few lingering low clouds over the Sault and Kinross courtesy of last night's line of convection. Expecting sunny skies to be the rule throughout much of the day with breezy southwest winds (a few 25+ mph gusts seem a fair bet, especially near Lake Michigan) promoting excellent mixing throughout the day. Dewpoints will lower, and with highs topping out in the 70s and 80s (perhaps upper 80s in those downsloping locales such as TVC, APN, PZQ), that will lead to low RHs that will contribute to elevated fire danger, with last night's rainfall being the only thing that really stands in the way of a full blown Red Flag Warning across the region. Looking upstream, convection is materializing across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa as a wave riding the secondary cold front attached to the main surface low over Minnesota marches eastward. Clouds set to increase from the southwest later today as this feature approaches, with perhaps a shower building on the immediate Lake Michigan shoreline late this afternoon, with better shower and thunder potential increasing through the evening into early tonight. For more details, please see the attached short term forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Occluded front, tied to deep low pressure spinning across the northern Plains, sweeping rapidly east across the area early this morning. Band of decaying showers and embedded thunderstorms along and just ahead of this front, with aggressive dry slot punching in just behind it. Front will exit stage right early this morning as dry slot overspreads the entirety of northern Michigan today. Upstream low pressure and secondary cold front make a run at our area tonight, drumming up another round of showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms in the process. Primary Forecast Concerns: Temperature/wind/relative humidity trends today (focus on fire weather concerns) and showers and thunderstorm evolution tonight. Details: Dry slot today is impressive, resulting in mostly sunny skies...with just some increasing clouds later this afternoon into the evening. Good vertical mixing with those clear skies, helping drive some decent southwest winds and warm temperatures across the region. Expecting highs well up into the 80s across interior northern lower Michigan, with reading just a smidge cooler for areas north of the big bridge and near those big waters. That mixing will also help plummet relative humidity rather aggressively by this afternoon. Combine that with those warm temperatures and gusty southwest winds and the stage is set for elevated wildfire concerns this afternoon. Will address that issues in our hazardous weather products/graphics and fire weather products. Slug of deeper moisture arrives tonight ahead of that secondary cold front and vort max wrapping around parent upstream low pressure. Expect scattered to numerous showers to spread back overhead quickly this evening. A few embedded thunderstorms also expected. Cannot completely rule out an isolated severe storm or two given relatively steep mid level lapse rates and modest shear through the convective column. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary concerns with any more organized updraft. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Midlevel closed low pressure at the base of a shortwave trough will be centered over the Upper Great Lakes at the start of the long term. Chances of precipitation begin to dissipate as midlevel heights rise and push subsidence across the northwoods through Tuesday. A few scattered showers will linger across parts of Michigan through Saturday as the surface level low begins to dissipate and slowly move towards the northeast. Besides the on and off showers, biggest noticing feature will be the temperatures falling well below normal for mid May. Highs this Saturday and Sunday will remain in the upper 50s to low 60s as cold air pulls in from the north. Cloudy skies and showers will give more of a early spring or even a fall feeling, but temperatures will slowly build into the 60s and even low 70s by midweek. At the same time; troughing currently over the Pacific Northwest will work its way eastward, reaching the Great Lakes region returns chances of precip around the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Ensemble guidance depicts this system weakening with time and lingering across the region through the rest of the week. Light- scattered showers will continue this pattern of dreary weather to close out the forecast period. Poor organization and a lack of deep atmospheric moisture will keep rain amounts low and any risk of severe weather at a minimum. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 556 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Any fog/mist and low clouds will quickly mix out after sunrise, leaving behind VFR conditions under mostly sunny skies today. Clouds increase and gradually lower to MVFR by later tonight as another band of showers rotate through the region. May also have a few embedded rumbles of thunder as well. Southwest to south winds become a bit gusty today, with winds decreasing again tonight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. && $$ UPDATE...HAD SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...SJC AVIATION...MSB