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FXUS61 KLWX 161400

AFDLWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC

1000 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A warm front is expected to lift through and to the northeast 

of the region today into late afternoon. A low pressure system 

will move into the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front 

pushing through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build 

in from the north Sunday and Monday.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As expected, a line of moderate to heavy showers has developed 

across central MD this morning and is moving east towards the 

Chesapeake Bay. This is along a boundary set off by a much 

stronger MCS that is ripping across northern PA at this time. It

doesn't appear that the line will have anything severe over our

area, but a brief downpour can be expected in these areas.



Later this afternoon into this evening, thunderstorms may

develop along remnant outflows from this morning convection in

conjunction with Bay/River breezes. This would be our first shot

at severe thunderstorms today, and would generally be along and

east of I-95 roughly. It seems that we will have no issues with

heating today, along with very high dew points in the 70s, so

this round could be quite strong if it is able to develop. Model

guidance and current obs do depict some westerly mid-level flow,

which could be an inhibiting factor to CI this afternoon.

However, I want to stress that if something does develop in this

environment, all hazards will be possible with any storm that

develops. 



Another round of severe weather could be on the horizon later 

this evening into the overnight hours. This is still very

uncertain though, and very dependent on an MCS developing to our

west and tracking in such a way that would impact our area. 

Since we won't have our daytime heating, the severity could be 

diminished some, but the humidity, nearby trough, approaching 

cold front on Saturday could be enough to make it interesting in

terms of severe elements overnight. At this time, would feel

more confident that this occurs across central/southern VA, but

can't be 100 percent certain at this time. This is very much a

"wait and see what develops" scenario and will be much more in

the way of NOWcasting later today. 



Given all of these threats today, the Storm Prediction Center 

has our region in a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms today 

into tonight. The threats are damaging wind gusts and large 

hail. Accompanying these threats will be heavy rain and could 

occur over areas that had already taken on a lot of rainfall in 

the past few days. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is 

also highlighted for our area today for the localized potential 

for some flash flooding.



High temperatures today should push the upper 80s in the eastern

half or even close to 90.



&&



.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

As eluded to in the previous paragraph and Near Term, a cold

front will approach and push across the region on Saturday.

Looks like, it could sweep through mid-morning Saturday (mntns)

and late afternoon Saturday (Bay). Nonetheless, the Storms

Prediction Center is keeping the eastern half of our region in a

Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday

night. A Marginal Risk a little farther to the west. Stay tuned

for development of showers and thunderstorms along this front.



High temperatures will remain warm with highs in the middle to

upper 80s Saturday.



Once the front pushes through the region, Saturday night and

through the day Sunday, winds will shift around from a warm

southwest flow and increase out of the northwest by Sunday into

Sunday night.



Drier and cooler air will filter in during this window. Highs

Sunday will be more likely in the middle 70s and seasonable for

mid-May.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The long term period will start out dry as surface high pressure 

builds over the forecast area. High temperatures will be in the 70s 

to low 80s with higher elevations staying in the 60s. Dry conditions 

continue through Tuesday morning as high pressure shifts eastward. 

To the southwest, a low pressure system developing over the central 

CONUS will track eastward towards the forecast area, bringing 

precipitation chances beginning Tuesday afternoon. Showers and 

thunderstorms are possible areawide Wednesday and Thursday afternoon 

as the associated warm front nears the area. 



Temperatures will be below normal with highs gradually falling each 

day. By Thursday, high temperatures will be in the 60s for most with 

higher elevations staying in the 50s. Overnight low temperatures 

will be in the 40s and 50s.



&&



.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

There is also potential for one or more rounds of showers and 

thunderstorms early this morning then again later this afternoon.

The first of which will move through the northern half of the 

area early. Have added some thunder into the BWI and MTN for the

next hour or so to capture this line of showers/storms. May 

have to introduce thunder in at some point if things continue to

trend upward. 



A second round of storms is possible later this afternoon into

the evening. Any lingering outflow boundaries from this

morning's showers may interact with Bay/River breezes during

this timeframe to fire off some storms. May be difficult to

initiated, but if they do, they will likely be severe in nature.

Damaging and wind gusts and large hail will both be a threat,

should this materialize. 



Another round of thunderstorms could arrive tonight into 

Saturday morning. This round has the most uncertainty at this 

point. An MCS moving in from the Ohio Valley may make it into 

our region late this evening into tonight night. This could be 

yet another risk for damaging wind gusts, but the timing and 

certainty of occurrence is still just not quite there yet. So, 

will hopefully have more details as this moves into the TAF 

period. 



There may be a few storms ahead of a frontal passage on Saturday as

well, which could also contain damaging wind gusts. This should

push through rather early on in the day, giving way to drier 

and windy conditions in its wake. 



VFR conditions are expected Sunday into the start of next week as 

high pressure maintains control across the region.



Northwesterly winds on Monday shift to north/northeasterly on 

Tuesday. Winds gust up to 15 knots on Monday and are expected to

blow 5 to 10 knots on Tuesday. VFR conditions are expected both

days across all terminals. The exception will be Tuesday night 

where showers and thunderstorms may impact CHO and MRB.



&&



.MARINE...

A line of showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, will push 

through the area this morning. This could bring some gusty 

winds, but SMWs don't seem likely at this time thanks to the

stable layer at the surface still being in place at this time. 



Today's forecast continues to grow increasingly tricky area-

wide. There may be some remnant boundaries laying around from

this morning's storms, which could interact with Bay/River

breezes to fire off convection later this afternoon/evening.

Additionally, there may even be an MCS moving towards the region

from the west. This in particular is very uncertain, but any of

these two scenarios could bring severe thunderstorms to the

waters this evening. Will be watching closely, but SMWs will be

likely if storms do develop. 



Another chance for severe weather looks to push through late 

tonight through early Saturday. Timing and location of yet

another MCS approaching from the west is still very uncertain, 

but conditions will be favorable for damaging wind gusts if this

does traverse the mountains and make it to the waters. SMWs 

would likely also be needed if this feature tracks directly 

over our area. 



Additionally, a cold front will push through Saturday, with SCA

conditions likely in its wake. A few storms may develop ahead of

this front early in the day as well, which could bring their own

gusty wind threat. 



SCA conditions likely on Sunday as winds gust around 20-25 knots 

across all the waters. High pressure settles overhead Sunday night 

into Monday, bringing sub-SCA winds.



Northwesterly winds on Monday shift to north/northeasterly on 

Tuesday, with SCA criteria winds likely in the northern portions of 

the waters Monday afternoon. Winds are expected to drop below SCA 

criteria on Tuesday.



&&



.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Freshwater flooding will continue at Georgetown through this

afternoon with the high tide cycle. The site remains in moderate

flood stage. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for this 

threat. Water should recede this evening and drop back below 

flood stage after the overnight high tide cycle. 



DC SW Waterfront and Alexandria are going to approach minor 

during this morning's high tide cycle, so Coastal Flood

Advisories were issued in advance of this. They may end up

falling just short, but will be very close. Beyond this

morning's cycle, anomalies will continue to drop in the coming

days, with no real concerns for coastal flooding at this time. 



&&



.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001.

MD...None.

VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for 

     VAZ054.

WV...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...KLW

NEAR TERM...KLW/CJL

SHORT TERM...KLW

LONG TERM...AVS

AVIATION...AVS/CJL

MARINE...AVS/CJL

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL