####018009226#### FXUS61 KOKX 161457 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1057 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple surface troughs move through today and Saturday, followed by a cold frontal passage Saturday night. A secondary cold front moves through Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Low pressure lingers in New England and into the Canadian Maritimes through Monday as high pressure pushes in. High pressure remains in control Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another frontal system impacts the area Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Any lingering fog burns off into late morning. A remnant MCS working east through Pennsylvania as of 14Z should begin to weaken as it approaches over the next couple of hours with cloud cover in place locally helping to limit destabilization and there's also a lack of a significant forcing. More likely, a period of showers, with potential for embedded thunderstorms, moves through portions of the region early this afternoon, primarily for the LoHud Valley, NE NJ and NYC. Severe threat looks more pronounced just to the south and west across the eastern Mid Atlantic, but can't rule out a strong thunderstorm surviving into the local region. Previous discussion follows. The upper level trough can now be seen to our east on latest satellite imagery. Heights may briefly rise aloft heading into the early morning hours. At the surface, a very weak pressure gradient is leading to calm to light winds. This and the moisture available from several days on onshore flow has resulted in fog around the area. With the fog being locally dense, have issued an SPS through 13z. The convection forecast today and Saturday continues to be very tricky. There will be multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms with different forcing mechanisms. The first chance will be with the ongoing MCS moving into western NY and western PA. CAMs are not all that excited about this feature, but can not rule out some of this making it into far western portions of our area. The broken line is moving into a less supportive environment and if any of the activity does reach our area it will likely be just showers with potential for isolated thunder. Have moved timing of PoPs back two hours as timing now looks closer to after 14z. As we head into the afternoon, shortwave energy approaches and instability increases as we warm to the upper 70s with mid 60s dewpoints. Some showers and thunderstorms likely spark just west and move towards the area. Highest chances are once again north and west of NYC, but can not rule out a shower or thunderstorm anywhere. Some organized convection is possible with this afternoon activity given increased instability and shear along with better curvature in the low levels on model hodographs. At this time the main hazard would be isolated damaging wind gusts or large hail, again mainly north and west of NYC. This activity will decrease heading into tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper level low continues approaching on Saturday with shortwave energy ejecting out ahead of it. Similar forecast challenges in the morning hours as there may be some sort of approaching convection left over from what happens in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region tonight. Then, once again, the area destabilizes ahead of a cold front. While CAMs are not overly excited about this either, there is potential for more widespread convection over the area Sunday afternoon given stronger forcing, instability(MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg) and shear(0-6km bulk shear around 40kt). This will also lead to more widespread chances of storms reaching severe thresholds. The SPC has placed the western half of the area in a slight risk. As of right now, the main threat is damaging wind gusts. Model hodographs will have to be watched as there is some indication of favorable low level shear and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out. Latest Nam3km and HRRR show around 150 m2/s2 of effective inflow layer SRH. The cold front moves through Saturday night and then a secondary cold front moves through Sunday and Sunday night. PoPs lower significantly, but there will be additional slight chances of showers across the interior Sunday afternoon with the upper low above us. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly sunny skies take over as high pressure centered over or near Hudson Bay in Canada gradually noses into the area Monday into Tuesday night, keeping the area dry. To our northeast, low pressure will continue to exit into New England and into the Canadian Maritimes through. This will lead to breezy W/WNW winds from an increased pressure gradient through Monday. A frontal system from the Great Plains then moves into the Ohio or Tennessee River Valleys on Tuesday, moving through or in the vicinity of our region Wednesday into Thursday. Expecting showers during this timeframe. Too soon to call chances for thunderstorms. Model guidance still varies with timing, magnitude, and track of this frontal system. Have gone with chance POPs Wednesday into Thursday as a result. Temperatures look to cool each day in the long-term period, especially towards Wednesday and Thursday with clouds and rain limiting any heating. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and by Thursday, with will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Overnight lows will range from the middle 40s to lower 50s. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak low pressure with a surface trough near the area today, followed by a warm front moving in Saturday. Cold front follows for Saturday evening. Showers and thunderstorms move in going into early this afternoon. KSWF, KEWR, and KTEB highest chances. Lesser chances of thunderstorms to the east. Not much rain at all expected for KISP, KBDR and no rain expected at KGON. Lingering MVFR to IFR conditions will improve to VFR for some time this afternoon before lowering again tonight to IFR and below with redevelopment of low clouds and fog. Light winds (at or under 5 kts) with variable direction for some terminals initially with otherwise a southerly flow near 5-10 kts expected through today. Winds decrease again tonight into early Saturday and become light and variable direction once again. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Brief TSRA possible for KJFK and KLGA early this afternoon. Timing of IFR and MVFR changes could be a few hours off from TAF. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Late Tonight: IFR or lower. Saturday: IFR to start, improving to MVFR mid-morning, then becoming VFR in the afternoon with showers likely, and a chance of thunderstorms with MVFR conditions. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers inland. W winds G20- 25kt. Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Monday NW winds G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Areas of fog on the waters burns off into late morning. Can't rule out a period of showers, with potential for embedded thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly for NY Harbor, the western LI Sound, and ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet. Fog returns tonight, potentially becoming dense again. Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through Sunday for the most part. There looks to be brief potential for 25 kt gusts Sunday afternoon, mainly for NY Harbor, western Sound and western Ocean. During this time, seas on the ocean could also approach 5 ft. Outside of this, there is potential for showers and thunderstorms each day, with potential for severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas will be locally higher in any storms. Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria for Monday. However, there is a low to medium chance of 25 kt wind gusts over the ocean waters with low pressure over the Gulf of Maine creating an increased pressure gradient. Thereafter winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria due to lack of any strong pressure gradient across the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... Locally heavy downpours are possible with any thunderstorms this afternoon, and again Saturday aft/eve. While the overall flash flood threat is low, the brief heavy rainfall could lead to minor nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage areas. There are no other hydrologic concerns through the end of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/JT NEAR TERM...DR/JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JM/JP MARINE...JP/JT HYDROLOGY...JP/JT ####018009945#### FXUS61 KBGM 161457 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1057 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will persist through Saturday. Cooler weather with a few lingering showers is expected on Sunday. Drier, mostly sunny but cool weather is then expected heading into early next week. Another low pressure system looks to bring additional rain chances by middle to latter portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1055 AM Update: Made some minor adjustments to PoPs for the next few hours, but otherwise the forecast remains on track. The line of showers and thunderstorms have weakened as expected and are currently located mainly across the Poconos-Catskills. These will exit the area within the next hour or two, with partial clearing behind it. This clearing trend will destabilize the atmosphere and set the stage for some additional scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. 645 AM Update A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is approaching the western portion of the forecast area currently, and is basically right on schedule with the previous forecast. Little change was needed with this update. The thunderstorms are no longer severe and are expected to gradually weaken through the mid to late morning hours as they approach the I-81 corridor. A few storms could produce heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning still. 430 AM Update Main concerns in this period are the potential for isolated strong to severe t'storms with heavy downpours, gusty winds and hail today...and another round of isolated to scattered severe t'storms is expected on Saturday. Today features a level 1 out of 5 Marginal Risk for severe storms from SPC across just about the entire forecast area. There is also a level 1 out of 4 Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and flash-flooding for the entire CWA today from WPC. SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for areas along and east of Syracuse--Ithaca--Towanda for Saturday. Patchy fog and stratus clouds are in place across portions of CNY/NE PA early this morning. An incoming line of convection is slowly approaching from Lake Erie/WNY/WPA early this morning as well. Latest CAMs have slowed down the timing of this line, with it now looking to reach Steuben county around 8-9 AM, I-81 by 9-11AM before it fizzles out east of Binghamton late this morning. Behind this initial morning line of showers and embedded t'storms there will be some breaks of sun...which will allow instability to quickly builds over the region. By early afternoon MLCAPE values of 800-1800 J/kg, along with LIs down to around -7 are expected. Deep layer shear begins to increase, between about 20-35 kts is expected in the 0-6km layer. Good directional shear and up to around 15kts of 0-1km shear are also expected; bringing SRH values around 100m2/s2 in the 0-1 layer...this combines with forecast LCLs around 600m to also bring an isolated tornado potential. The bigger threat from this storms today will likely be strong to possibly damaging wind gusts as DCAPE values rise to around 900-1000 J/Kg...which is a strong signal for downburst/microburst with some of the stronger storms that do develop. The main timing for severe storms looks to be from about 2-9 PM this afternoon and evening. Outside of the scattered storms it will be warm, humid and partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s expected. Dew points will be well into the 60s today, making it feel quite humid out there. Scattered showers and possibly even another round of thunderstorms will continue tonight as an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) is overhead producing mid level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.5C/km. It is difficult to pin down the timing of any nocturnal convection as some of the CAMs showing it redeveloping in place over the region, while other CAMs show t'storms advecting in from the Ohio Valley overnight. Up to around 500 J/Kg of MLCAPE remains in place overnight due to the warm and humid air mass that will be situated across CNY and NE PA. Mild and humid night expected with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s for most locations. Saturday brings a stronger cold front into the area late in the day or evening as a large mid/upper level low moves across the Great Lakes and into souther Canada. It will remain warm, humid and unstable out ahead of this front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the forecast area...becoming widespread in the afternoon and early evening. CAPE values of between 500-1500 J/Kg are most likely to develop; although there remains substantial differences in some of the model guidance at this time. Deep layer shear is even stronger between 35-50 kts in the 0-6km layer, and this will help storms to become better organized. Temperatures will begin to fall late in the day and evening as the cold front moves through. Highs are expected to reach the mid-70s to lower 80s, with dew points falling and it becoming much less humid in the evening. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update... The frontal system that moves across the region during the daytime hours should be just about through by the late evening hours. Lingering showers and thunderstorms will remain possible until it exits the region. Then an upper low swings through the region late Saturday night and during the daytime on Sunday. This system will bring the next round of showers to the region. There will be no instability present, so thunderstorms are not expected. A cooler airmass will also drop in with this system resulting in a cool and rainy end to the weekend. Winds will be breezy Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens up around a surface low that will be just north of the region. As this system moves east of the region Sunday night, northwest flow will continue to advect cool air southward as showers continue. Temperatures will fall into the upper 40s and mid 50s Saturday night. Then temps will struggle to rebound much as highs will only be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Portions of the Wyoming Valley be close to 70 as skies are expected to clear some across the far southern portions of the region. Lows on Sunday will be in the 40s for most of the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 345 AM Update... Dry but cool conditions are in store for early next week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will be below normal throughout the long term period. Winds will remain breezy Monday as the aforementioned system continues to move through. This will result in blustery conditions, at least for this time of year, during the morning hours. Patchy frost will be possible Monday night/early Tuesday morning as temperatures plummet under mostly clear skies and calming winds. Dry conditions will continue through at least Tuesday and likely into part of Tuesday night as guidance has slowed down the arrival of the next system. Another upper low will move into the Great Lakes region midweek as a surface low develops along the coast. This system will bring widespread rain to the region Wednesday and Wednesday night with rain then continuing Thursday. Coverage on Thursday may not completely cover the area depending on the location of the surface low by then. There is some spread between guidance on where the lows set up and how quickly they move through, so similarly to previous updates, NBM guidance continues to be favored for this time period. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 645 AM Update Some patchy, shallow fog is impacting ELM and BGM early this morning. The fog is expected to quickly dissipate, with a return to VFR conditions. However, the rain and storms will quickly move into ELM around or shortly after 12z this morning. A line of showers and some embedded thunderstorms is forecast to push into our western terminal (ELM) between about 12-14z this morning, reaching BGM--ITH-SYR by 13-15z and finally AVP by 14-16z. There is uncertainty in just how strong this line of showers and potential t'storms will be as it moves through. For this update added in tempo groups at all taf sites except RME, for MVFR vsbys, CIGs with moderate to locally heavy rain...best chance to see TSRA will be at ELM with this morning's activity. Another set of TEMPO groups were added for more scattered thunderstorms at all taf sites (except still PROB30 at AVP) between about 18-23z but confidence is currently only moderate for exact timing at any one terminal. As the t'storms move through the afternoon and evening atmospheric conditions are forecast to be favorable for strong, gusty and erratic winds. After these showers and storm decrease in coverage late this evening, it should go back to mainly VFR around the region. Some stratus and/or patchy fog will again be possible heading into the predawn hours early Saturday morning. Outlook... Saturday...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, with associated restrictions likely at times. Some of the storms could severe with strong wind gusts and/or hail. Sunday...Scattered rain showers with a lingering low pressure system, this will bring associated restrictions. Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...BJG/MJM SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL/ES AVIATION...KL/MJM ####018006553#### FXUS62 KILM 161458 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1058 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures near record highs are expected through Saturday. A weak cold front accompanied with isolated showers and storms will track across the area Saturday night. Mainly dry weather with above normal temps are then expected until a storm system likely affects the area toward the middle of next week bringing cooler temps and better rain chances. && .UPDATE... No significant changes to the forecast with the late morning update. Still not expecting much in the way of shower/storm activity later today but some high-res models do show a bit of convection, mainly north of a Lumberton to Elizabethtown to Burgaw line, so can't completely rule out an isolated damaging wind gust through early evening given plenty of shear, instability and downdraft CAPE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Somewhat deep west to northwest (early) flow will remain in place across the area today. Near record to record highs are expected for afternoon highs with only Florence (95 forecast...record 93) at least at this point explicitly in record territory. The next candidate to break a record is Lumberton (94 forecast...record 96) as the coastal areas may see a race between the resultant sea breeze which will be decent as the westerly flow isn't the strongest I have seen and the warmth. For tonight into Saturday morning expect warm and dry conditions to continue with lows in the lower to perhaps only middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Breezy conditions slated for Sat as a sfc trof across the central Carolinas gets displaced by a sfc cold front driving ESE. This aided by an upper low over the Great Lakes and associated upper trof axis extending south of it, all pushing to the East. By Sun daybreak the upper low will be over the NE States with its trof axis extending south across the area. This will help drive a cold front across the FA likely sat aftn and night. It'll likely stall just south of the FA as it becomes aligned parallel with the flow aloft. Models do scour a good chunk of moisture after crossing the Appalachians leaving mainly clouds associated with its passage. Eventhough POPS will be 20% at best, the isolated convection that does develop will immediately have the potential to go severe given the avbl instability and shear. Max temps in the 90s Sat will have the potential to reach record levels across a few of our climatic sites. Later Sun thru Sun night, building upper ridge axis along the MIssissippi River Valley and the upper trof axis off the SE STates Coast will result in NW flow aloft. Could see an embedded vort within this NW flow push across the FA Sun aftn resulting in a possibility of raising POPs across the FA. Not entirely bought on this given previous model runs kept it south of the FA. Sun max temps a few degrees cooler than Sat maxes. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The FA will be more under the influence of the upper ridging across the Central U.S. with the upper trof axis remaining well offshore from the FA. NW flow aloft will continue Mon thru Tue with yet another embedded vort s/w trof that possibly drops across the FA within NW flow. Once again, confidence remains low given the back and forth progged movement/strength of this feature. Nevertheless, a reflection of it will be the cloudiness being invoked into the fcst. Late Tue into Wed the upper ridge axis pushes off the SE States Coast followed by a sharpening/amplifying upper trof across the Eastern 1/3rd of the U.S. This has been advertised by models, however the remain wishy-washy with any Pop threat. At this point will cap Pops in the low to possibly modest chance during the mid-week period. Temps this period will start above normal then drop back to near or below normal depending how much of that Canadian airmass infiltrates the FA. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, as a building mid-level ridge keeps convection suppressed. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Southwest winds which have probably reached their peak just north of 15 knots will continue today in a range of 10-15 knots. Speeds will diminish slightly tonight before the low level jetting once again sees an uptick. Significant seas will see a narrow range of 3-4 feet today dropping in a subtle nature to 2-4 feet later tonight into Saturday AM. Saturday through Tuesday Night...Tightened sfc pg will be ongoing to start Sat off. Inland sfc trof will be replaced by a SE-ward dropping cold front Sat aftn. This front should push off the mainland and thru the local waters mainly Sat night. Could see tstorm activity spring up after pushing off the coasts, as it interacts with the Gulf Stream. Winds Sat into Sat night will flirt with SCA 25+ kt wind gusts. The sfc pg will relax after FROPA and remain-so thru Mon night, resulting in reduced wind speeds to aob 10 kt. Wind directions will be the problem child during this period. By Tue, some organization of the pressure field as well as some tightening of the gradient. Seas start at 2-4 ft with 5 footers possible. Mainly looking at wind driven waves at 5 or less second periods becoming dominant with an underlying small but identifiable SE swell at 8+ second periods. && .CLIMATE... High temperature records may be challenged Friday and Saturday as anomalously warm air overspreads the region ahead of a cold front. Record highs for our four climate sites are as follows: For Friday, May 16th... Wilmington, NC: 94F (1915) Lumberton, NC: 96F (1962, 1941) Florence, SC: 93F (2022) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 91F (1941) Saturday, May 17th... Wilmington, NC: 92F (1960, 1990) Lumberton, NC: 96F (1941) Florence, SC: 93F (1977) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 92F (1941) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...DCH LONG TERM...DCH AVIATION...SHK MARINE...DCH/SHK CLIMATE... ####018006613#### FXUS61 KPBZ 161459 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1059 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... There is potential for strong to severe storms today and tonight as a cold front approaches. Drier and cooler conditions return Sunday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Convoluted environment today will maintain low-moderate confidence in the presence of storms, but a higher confidence in severe potential given initiation. - A decaying MCS in possible tonight somewhere in the Appalachians, but confidence in location is low. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The lack of overnight storms south of I-80 completely changes the severe forecast for today. Given CAM guidance before 12Z showed a worked over environment across the area, it poorly represents current conditions. So the forecast will heavily rely on initialization at and after 12Z. Given a look at the current wind field and satellite, there is some indication of a convergence zone in to low levels settling in across southwest PA, eastern OH, and the northern WV panhandle. In addition, there is a residual outflow boundary from overnight convection in the I-80 corridor. If an area was favored for convection, it would be along an east-west axis passing near the Pittsburgh area. Looking at the 12 sounding showing ~1400 MLCAPE and ~900 DCAPE, the atmosphere would be primed for severe convection, particularly if updrafts drive into and wet-bulb the 6km to 12km later. There intense updrafts in a high DCAPE environment would have a primary risk of damaging winds and hail. There is a chance the DCAPE is lower later in the day, though this would rely on upstream convection to contaminate the environment, which is still of moderate uncertainty. After initiation, would would expect the primary storm motion to be to the northeast as outflow combined with synoptic wind. If there is an area to watch for flooding, it would be on the south side of convection, where outflow would be fighting the synoptic wind field, resulting in training. Uncertainty snowballs tonight as convection will rely on two factors: 1) Where and if the environment has been tainted by daytime convection. 2) Where storms fire upstream during the day today. If todays storms put do an outflow, it is very likely overnight convection stays south of it. This boundary will be important in distinguishing the threat as scenarios range everywhere from no outflow to outflow far south of the area. The farther north and/or a lack of an outflow means higher severe chances tonight. Second, there is initiation today. The farther north storms in the northern Ohio Valley initiate today, the higher the chance our region is impacted by a progressive, decaying MCS. With both of these factors together, the best chances of severe tonight increases the farther south of Pittsburgh you go. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front crosses the area, ending thunderstorm activity and ushering cooler and drier weather into the region. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Showers and storms depart the area to the east on Saturday as a cold front sweeps through the area, ushering in cooler and drier weather under deep-layer northwesterly flow. Showers could linger in the ridges through Saturday evening with weak upslope occurring in the wake of the front, but by overnight hours that activity too should wane, with temperatures then dropping into the low to mid 50s by early Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler and drier pattern returns Sunday through Tuesday. - Precipitation chances return Tuesday into Wednesday with another low pressure system - Potential for heavy rain mid-week that warrants monitoring ------------------------------------------------------------------- Models have been consistent that troughing over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS will maintain northwest flow over the local area Sunday into Monday, keeping temperatures seasonable and the weather dry through that time. Probability of precipitation increases again late Tuesday into Wednesday with a new low ejecting out of the Rockies and tracking east across the Plains. A few model scenarios note a stationary boundary straddling south of Pittsburgh with this passing low. If that scenario plays out, heavy rain could pose a threat for portions of the region around mid-week. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A shortwave trough continues to track through the Ohio Valley region this morning. Capping overnight kept a lid on much of the region, with only a broken line of thunderstorms continuing to track along the far north impacting FKL and DUJ. The line of storms will be through FKL by 12z and very near DUJ before tracking east. The southern extent of this line will scrape past BVI but VFR is expected to prevail with a low probability of MVFR CIGs. Many other ports this morning will start the morning in VFR under largely clear skies. Scattered diurnal cu is expected to develop through the day. With the thunderstorms not developing as far south as expected early this morning, this will result in more destabilization later today as another shortwave crosses the region. Maintained a prob30 mention of thunder for most airports south of Rt 422, though considerable uncertainty exists in this scenario. Another round of thunderstorms, possibly an MCS, is expected to cross the region late this evening with a crossing cold front. Models differ on the northern extent of this potential, which could also be impacted by any afternoon convection. Included a prob30 for thunder for now until forecast details become more clear. Outlook... Patchy restrictions in scattered showers are expected Saturday and Saturday night under a crossing upper trough. VFR returns Monday under high pressure. Restriction and rain potential returns with a Tuesday warm front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Hefferan NEAR TERM...Milcarek SHORT TERM...Cermak LONG TERM...Cermak/Hefferan AVIATION...WM/AK