####018007717#### FXUS61 KRLX 161517 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1117 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible today into tonight. Cold front crosses Saturday. Quieter to finish the weekend, then unsettled pattern returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1113 AM Friday... A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued across our southern tier counties for this afternoon in anticipation for the strong to severe storms coming out of eastern KY. Large hail and damaging winds will accompany these storms. These storms will likely train over the area through the afternoon, so flash flooding is possible. There is also the risk for an isolated tornado, but that chance is lower in comparison to the other perceived threats. As of 915 AM Friday... A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for our southern forecast area up to the I-64 corridor. Confidence is increasing in flash flooding associated with rounds of training showers and storms moving across these areas later this morning through tonight. 1-hr FFG is barely above an inch in spots across the southern coalfields. Convective models show multiple rounds of storms moving up from KY this afternoon ahead of the main line which will arrive tonight. The line looks to move through between 7 and 9 PM and the southern end of the line looks to train over the the watch areas. As of 400 AM Friday... Key Points: * Rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible today and tonight. * Damaging winds are the main concern, though large hail and tornadoes are also possible. Heavy rain could also lead to localized high water issues. Light precipitation is possible early this morning, then rounds of stronger showers and storms are expected to arrive from the southwest mid morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate a favorable environment in which severe storms may form during the day, particularly across central and southern portions of the CWA. Activity may temporarily diminish this evening before another robust band of showers and storms arrives ahead of a cold front. Even better potential for severe weather is expected to occur as this band sweeps east overnight. Most of the area falls under an enhanced risk of severe weather though tonight, with damaging winds as the primary concern. however, large hail and tornadoes will also be possible. A slight risk of excessive rainfall is also present for today and tonight as heavy downpours could cause localized high water issues. Temperatures are expected to reach upper 70s to mid 80s in the lowlands and 70s to low 80s in the mountains today. Lows remain fairly mild, with mid 50s to 60s expected overnight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 AM Friday... The cold front bringing the potential for severe weather in the near term will not actually push through the area until Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. While the severe and heavy rain threats should be east of the area by dawn Saturday, showers and even thunderstorms are still possible in and near the mountains Saturday morning, and up north in wrap around moisture closer to the mid/upper-level low crossing the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon. Gradient flow and good mixing Saturday will result in strong winds, with peak gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph across the lowlands, and 40 to 45 mph across the highest ridges, where a wind advisory may be needed if confidence increases in higher gusts. These strong winds will diminish Saturday night. Dry weather is then expected Saturday night through Sunday night, as drier air arrives from the northwest Saturday and Saturday night, and then surface ridging noses in from the northwest Sunday and Sunday night. Central guidance reflects modest cooling over the weekend, which brings temperatures down to near normal for Sunday and Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 415 AM Friday... Unsettled weather appears to be on tap again for the next work week, as low pressure rumbles across the area. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms as early as midday and afternoon Monday, if some of the overnight warm advection convection upstream Sunday night can survive or refire. After a dry Monday night as ridging briefly re-establishes, showers and thunderstorms are likely late Tuesday through Wednesday, as a southern stream low pressure system rumbles across the area beneath a rex block. How quickly the weather then dries out behind the system late next week depends upon whether it can come out from beneath the rex block by becoming absorbed by a northern stream short wave trough east of the block. However, even that scenario results in a mid/upper- level low that may take the remainder of the work week to lumber far enough east to finally take precipitation out of the area. Temperatures hover close to normal ahead of the system early in the work week, before slipping below normal for the latter portion of the work week, as the system lumbers across. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 650 AM Friday... Rounds of showers and storms will spread into the area from the southwest today. Activity should briefly diminish during the evening before a new line of storms passes west to east across the area tonight. Periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities will be possible within any heavier showers or storms today and tonight. Strong to severe storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and possibly tornadoes. Outside of storms, moderate southwesterly winds may gust into the 15-25kt range. A period of LLWS may develop late in the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and duration of thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by late Tuesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>007-013>015- 024>026-033-034-515>518. OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ086-087. KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/20 NEAR TERM...20/LTC SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...20 ####018010611#### FXUS61 KAKQ 161518 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1118 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Summer-like temperatures and humidity are expected today and tonight, along with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. Similarly warm for Saturday as a cold front crosses the area, bringing additional showers and storms. High pressure briefly returns for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures cool down and conditions become unsettled into the middle of next week as an upper level low pressure system develops west of the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1115 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible between 4-9 PM across the entire area. The main threat with this is damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, with a low-end threat for large hail and/or a brief tornado. - A second round of storms is possible after 2-3 AM tonight, which could pose a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts. However, this is highly uncertain and depends on the evolution of the initial round of storms. - Summer-like temperatures and humidity today and tonight. The flow aloft has become WSW late this morning as upper ridging slowly pushes to our east. A prominent upper low (stacked atop strong sfc low pressure) continues to spin over the Upper Midwest. Still no prominent surface features nearby, with a cold front still well to our NW and high pressure well offshore to our SE. Dry wx continues, but am watching strong to severe tstms across Kentucky (associated with a subtle upper level perturbation). This is the convection that we'll be watching later today for potential severe wx. In addition, there is a complex of storms to our north (over DE/eastern PA). There is a low chc of a few tstms across the MD Eastern Shore by mid afternoon (which could be strong to severe). Otherwise, mainly dry wx continues until 2-3 PM at the earliest. The 12z RNK sounding showed a decent capping inversion around 750mb, with strong deep-layer shear and steep mid level lapse rates. While there are still uncertainties in the thunderstorm forecast this afternoon through tonight, confidence is (slightly) increasing that the storms currently in KY track toward the area and approach the western CWA border by around 4 PM. This solution is shown by most of the incoming 12z/16 CAMs. By this time, the cap should be eroding given temps rising into the upper 80s-90F and dew pts in the upper 60s-70F. It appears that this first round of convection (most likely timing between 4-9 PM) poses the highest severe wx potential as it tracks rather quickly from W-E across the CWA as a broken line. The environment will be characterized by relatively straight hodographs with strong speed shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Therefore, the main threat will be severe wind gusts (potentially to 70 mph) with a lower chc of hail or a brief tornado. The environmental parameters (especially the mid- level lapse rates on the order of 7.5-8C) are much more favorable for severe wx than we typically see in the mid-Atlantic. There will likely be a break in the storms late this evening-early tonight before a second round of storms potentially approaches early Sat AM (after 2-3 AM). However, these will be weakening as they approach but will pose a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts. Also, if the first round comes through as advertised, this will act to stabilize the environment and thus further lessen the threat for additional severe wind early Sat AM. Have raised PoPs to ~50% this afternoon/evening to account for increased confidence in the first round of convection and will maintain chc PoPs later tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a broad Level 2 out 5 (Slight) Risk for all of our VA and MD counties, with a Level 1 out 5 (Marginal) Risk for our NC counties. With the aforementioned environment being very favorable for damaging winds, the *potential* for severe weather exists areawide. Outside of convection, a very warm to hot day is expected with the ridge overhead. Temperatures warm into the lower 90s for most areas W of the Chesapeake Bay, with mid-upper 80s on the Eastern Shore. With a moist low-level airmass and dew points around 70 F, it will feel quite humid and heat indices should peak in the mid to potentially upper 90s for a good portion of the area. Skies also average mostly to partly sunny, though variable cloudiness would be expected around and within thunderstorm activity. Lows tonight should be very reminiscent of summer and range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Very warm Saturday with additional strong to severe thunderstorms potentially developing along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. - Drying out later Saturday into Sunday behind a cold front. Another hot day is ahead for Saturday ahead of a cold front. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with the warmest temps across the SE. The details of any convection in the afternoon hours are again fuzzy given the dependence on what happens tonight into early Saturday, particularly surrounding any leftover precip or storms. Additionally, the primary shortwave and ascent will become displaced N of the region later in the day. There will still likely be a favorable kinematic and thermodynamic parameter space in place, conditionally favorable for a severe weather threat. Given this, SPC has maintained a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight) severe weather risk for most of the area, minus our far western counties in the Piedmont. The main threat would again be damaging winds, with large hail also possible. With drier air filtering in behind the front Saturday night, expect cooler low temps in the lower to mid 60s. Still quite warm for Sunday as only modest cold advection occurs behind the front. Highs in the lower to mid 80s, warmest across the S and SE and coolest on the Eastern Shore. Overnight lows drop into the 50s inland and lower 60s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Dry and warm Monday. - Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday through Thursday. High pressure builds over the region, at least briefly, for Monday as the upper trough axis shifts further offshore. Dry weather is thus expected for Monday, outside of some increasing higher clouds from the west. High temperatures in the mid 70s are expected on the Eastern Shore, with lower 80s elsewhere. An upper level low is favored to develop in the Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday, which will lead to an unsettled weather pattern developing. The specifics remain unclear with differences among the deterministic guidance, but Wednesday currently appears to be the wettest day next week. A few showers are also possible by later Tuesday. With the increased precipitation chances, temperatures trend cooler...and likely below seasonal norms...by Wednesday and Thursday. Below normal temperatures remain favored through the end of the week and looking ahead to next weekend. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Friday... Patchy fog (MVFR VIS) at RIC and SBY to start off the forecast period, with all sites returning to VFR ~13z. Additional showers and thunderstorms develop later today, with potentially two rounds impacting the TAF sites, the first round being this afternoon and the second round tonight. Highest confidence for showers/storms this afternoon, where a PROB30 has been introduced. While there is a decent amount of uncertainty with respect to timing, some of the storms could be severe with gusts up to 50 kt (or higher). Additional showers/storms will remain possible into early Saturday morning. In addition, there is low confidence that patchy for and/or low stratus will impact SBY early Saturday morning. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and storms develop again Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, predominate VFR conditions return over the weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Generally sub-SCA conditions into the weekend, but with elevated SW flow ahead of a cold front Saturday, and elevated NW flow behind the front Sunday-Monday. - Locally strong to severe storms possible later this afternoon into tonight. Early this morning, a nearly stationary front is draped over the northern Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. South of the front, winds are generally out of the S to SW, ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Along/north of the front, winds are generally light and variable. Seas range from 2 to 3 feet (locally up to 4 feet across the far southern coastal waters) and waves in the bay are running around 1 foot or less. The front gradually lifts north today, with S to SW winds increasing to ~10 to 15 knots later this morning into tonight. Scattered showers and storms are again possible later this afternoon into tonight, with some of these storms potentially being strong to severe. Still looking at the potential for a brief period of elevated, near SCA SW winds Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across the lower James and lower bay. Winds veer around to the W/NW later Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of a passing cold front. Next chance for SCA level winds comes with a secondary surge of cooler, drier air Sunday night into Monday, though this remains uncertain at this range. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Flood Warnings continue along the James River, at Richmond- Westham, and Richmond Locks have crested, but will remain in minor flood stage through Friday night. See water.noaa.gov for more site- specific information. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...ERI/SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...KMC/SW AVIATION...AJB/RMM MARINE...AJB/LKB HYDROLOGY...AKQ