####018004461#### FXUS63 KLBF 200850 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 350 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong winds on Tuesday across western and north central Nebraska - Cooler temperatures this week into the holiday weekend - Several chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 The main concern in the short term will be the strong winds. The upper level low continues to spin off the the north retrograding back to the northwest late Tuesday into Wednesday. Will be on the backside of the low giving us strong northwest winds thorugh the day. Trended a blend of the 90 percentile for winds given the proximity of the low and bufkit soundings confidence is medium that there should be widespread wind gust of at least 40 mph or greater, some locations may see gust up 50 mph. Expect winds to remain below warning criteria as confidence is low in seeing any wind gust above 50 mph and sustained winds should remain under around 35 mph or less. As for precipitation chances this morning through the day, did trend back PoPs coverage wise, as the greatest potential for showers will generally be across far north central Nebraska. Do not expect much in the way of QPF as expecting generally less than 0.05 and showers will be fairly scattered in nature should they impact the area. As for high temperatures today, did generally keep temperatures near the inherited forecast as cloud coverage across north central NE and the northwest flow will advect the cooler air from the north. Highs today will struggle to reach around 50 degrees across north central Nebraska, which is 20 to 25 degrees below normal. While the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska could see temperatures in the 60s, which is around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Below normal temperatures continue into Wednesday as the low still hangs around to the north bringing northwest flow to the area. Could also see a low chance of showers on Wednesday as well with the wrap around moisture, these will be isolated to scattered in nature with very light accumulations expected. There will also be some patchy frost that develops Tuesday night as the winds become lighter overnight and lows drop into the mid 30s. Widespread frost is not anticipated at this time with only patchy frost expected, thus decided to hold off on any frost headlines at this time. There is a greater potential for more widespread frost Wednesday night into Thursday, will have to monitor to see if temperatures trend colder for Wednesday night as a headline may be needed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 The upper level low continues to retrograde into Canada by Thursday as a ridge develops to the west. A thermal ridge develops on Friday with far southwest Nebraska influenced the most and temperatures will reach the 70s. There may be a chance for thunderstorms on Friday as a SW trof moves into the area, this may be the greatest potential for more scattered to even widespread thunderstorm chances through the week. Friday looks to be the warmest day of the week as ridging begins to amplify for Saturday and cooler below normal temperatures return for the holiday weekend. Temperatures will be in the 60s through Memorial Day with daily chances for precipitation. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Low stratus will continue to expand across northern Nebraska into tomorrow morning, with widespread MVFR/IFR and locally LIFR CIGs near and north of Highway 2. Some gradual improvement back to VFR is possible from west to east late in the period. In addition, scattered rain showers are expected through this afternoon, with MVFR visibilities possible. Winds quickly strengthen from the northwest late this morning, with gusts as high as 35 to 45kts expected this afternoon. Winds gradually weaken around sunset, becoming 10 to 15kts from the west-northwest overnight. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gomez LONG TERM...Gomez AVIATION...Brown ####018002685#### FXUS64 KSJT 200852 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 352 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer than normal temperatures should occur Wednesday through Sunday. - Potential for severe weather returns Thursday, as well as late Sunday through Memorial Day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 A cold front will push across the area this morning. This will result in cooler temperatures today compared to yesterday. Highs will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s, with some lower 90s along the I-10 corridor and northwest Hill Country. Overnight lows will be pleasant, with temperatures dipping down into the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 An upper-level ridging pattern with southerly surface flow is expected for the second half of this week. This should lead to warmer than normal temperatures during this time period with highs in the mid to upper 90s. A weak disturbance embedded in the northwest flow on Thursday could generate some chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, especially as a warm front sets up across northwest Texas. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with the increased shear along and near the warm front. For now, SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe storms across the Big Country, although storms could still occur further south along the dryline. Stronger shortwave ridging should return for Friday and Saturday but by Sunday evening, the aforementioned warm front will shift southward as a cold front. This should increase chances for rain and help to bring slightly cooler temperatures into the region for the Memorial Day holiday and the first part of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Winds will be light overnight increasing to around 10-15 knots out of the north during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 83 61 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 86 59 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 92 59 96 67 / 0 0 0 10 Brownwood 84 56 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 83 62 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 88 61 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 87 60 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...42