####018013318#### FXUS63 KSGF 161710 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1210 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a Moderate Level (4 of 5) Risk for severe weather today, mainly along and east of Highway 65 and before sunset. Very large hail to the size of softballs, damaging winds up to 80 mph, and tornadoes will be possible. - 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. A Marginal Level (1 of 5) Risk exists for a few thunderstorms may become capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters. - The unsettled weather pattern will continue across the area early next week. This includes the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Uncertainty remains in the exact details. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 955 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 SGF morning RAOB showed very dry air with a strong cap in place. However, a warm front has quickly lifted into the area with significant airmass modification underway. We plan to get another balloon in the around around 16Z to get a better feel of airmass changes prior to convection moving overhead. Nothing on radar as of 10am, but seeing agitated cumulus over NE OK and into far SW MO, which makes sense given increasing instability, decreasing CIN and increasing low level convergence. Thinking convection is likely to initiate within the next hour or so somewhere south of Joplin and west of Branson. Evolution after initiation is still uncertain, but better moisture and instability will favor greatest coverage and severity along and south of I-44 through early to mid-afternoon. With fairly straight hodographs, look for splitting supercells where right movers head straight east and left movers head to the NE with around a 45 degree separation in those vectors. SPC Mesoanalysis seems to have a decent handle on current conditions in showing a nose of 2,000-3,000 J/kg MLCAPE just east of the MO/OK and MO/KS borders with a small area of reduced MLCIN < 25 J/kg near Neosho to Southwest City. By 17Z, RAP continues to erode the cap and shifts the nose of 2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE east along Highway 65. By 19Z, RAP shows 2,500-3,500 J/kg of MLCAPE in areas east of Highway 65. Throughout this time frame, deep layer shear will be 60-70 kts. Hail threat: All parameters are supportive of very large hail up to around 4 inches, or softball size. Look for prolific hail production possible in left movers. Wind threat: With strong wind fields and a loaded up atmosphere, gusts up to 80 mph are possible. Tornado: Most parameters are supportive of a tornado threat. Surface winds are from the southwest, which isn't as favorable, but given other positive factors a threat does exist. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Current water vapor imagery depicts a very potent upper-level low sitting over the northern Plains states, with a solid 100-110 kt jet core stretched from the Four Corners Region, across the Central Plains, and into the Great Lakes region. A shortwave is noted within this flow across the OK/TX panhandles. Associated with this feature, a surface low is developing and will be our main weather-maker for today. Meanwhile, surface obs depict a cold front slowly clearing across southeast Missouri. Mid-60s dewpoints ahead of the front in Oregon/Shannon Counties is allowing for 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Radar imagery and IR satellite show developing showers along this frontal boundary. With 60-70 kts of effective bulk shear within this region, a strong thunderstorm or two could brush portions of Oregon County going through this morning. Otherwise, temperatures across our area are dropping to the middle 50s behind the cold front. Moderate (4 of 5) Risk for severe weather today: The aforementioned shortwave and associated surface low over the panhandles will translate into our western CWA this morning. Associated mass response will increase wind speeds to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph at times. This will quickly advect middle to upper 60 dewpoints and middle 80s temperatures up into our region. This, along with cooler temperatures aloft, will greatly destabilize the atmosphere with the HREF mean at 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE beneath 60-70 kts of deep layer shear-- a volatile environment for sure. As the cold front plows through this air mass, scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop. Below are some when, where, what, and uncertainty details. Timing: Two main timeframes are noted. First, between 10 AM and 3 PM along the cold front just as unstable air gets advected in front. If storms develop during this time period, they would progress west to east quickly, outpacing the front. Then, a second window of redevelopment along the front is possible between 3-6 PM. Location: The first timeframe (10 AM - 3 PM) of development appears to be somewhere between the I-49 and Highway 65 corridors when CAMs first start dissolving the cap ahead of the cold front. These storms would move west to east through midday and clear the eastern Ozarks after 3 PM. The second timeframe (3-6 PM) would again be along the front during peak heating. During this timeframe, the front should be across the eastern Ozarks. All storms should be out of the area by 7 PM. Hazards: The main hazard is very large hail up to the size of softballs. Secondary hazards are very strong wind gusts up to 80 mph, and a few tornadoes. CAM soundings fully support very large hail. In addition to the very strong instability and shear, soundings depict 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, >40000 ft ELs and strong ventilation at that level, and modest storm relative inflow and sub-hail growth zone CAPE. This all leads to a large hail parameter of 20-30 which based on research supports hail greater than 3.5 inches. Indeed, SPC's experimental outlook places the eastern Ozarks in a "double hatching" which signifies higher confidence in the occurrence of very large hail. The strong instability and kinematics will also support strong RFDs and/or bowing segments with wind gusts up to 80 mph. There is a tornado threat as low- level shear approaches 20-25 kts with LCL heights below 500m. However, as the day goes on, hodographs become more straight with southwesterly surface winds and 0-1 km SRH values of 100-150 m2/s2. This is certainly sufficient for tornadoes, but the threat is a bit lower than hail. Uncertainty: Hi-res guidance has been a tad bearish in the coverage of storms, with some runs of the HRRR keeping most of our area dry for the entire period. This seems a tad odd given the modeled uncapped environment, decent forcing from convergence along the cold front, and no real indication of subsidence aloft. Therefore, expectations is for at least scattered storm development during the time periods mentioned above. Indeed, other HREF members do have storm development, especially across the eastern Ozarks in the afternoon. The most bullish member is the NAM with storms developing along I-49. Though forecast soundings from this member depict a stout cap that others do not depict. Therefore, there's still some uncertainty in exact extent of coverage, but expectation is still for scattered storms. And when storms go, it will not take much for them to become severe, perhaps significantly severe. Negative vorticity advection behind the clearing shortwave and sinking air within the cooler air mass will keep us dry tonight into Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to middle 50s. Highs Saturday will be in the middle to upper 70s (around 80 near the southern border). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe weather Saturday night: Another shortwave will start translating eastward into the TX/OK panhandle region Saturday evening. This will begin lifting the trailing surface cold front back north as an effective warm front, keeping low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday night. Thus, relatively strong 850 mb warm air advection above the surface front could trigger some showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. RAP forecast soundings during this time period show 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, largely within the hail growth zone. Effective bulk shear within this profile looks to be in the 35-45 kt range. Thus, some marginally strong to severe storms would be possible with hail up to quarter size being the main hazard. However, inverted-V soundings above the developing nocturnal inversion could allow for wind gusts up to 60 mph as well. Additional chances for severe weather and heavy rain: Daily chances for severe weather and heavy rain continue through the weekend and early next week as ensembles depict the broader synoptic pattern to retain persistent southwesterly flow with embedded shortwaves traversing within the jet. With this pattern, a rather sharp dryline will be in place across central KS/OK/TX Sunday and Monday. The surface warm front is progged to be placed in a west-east fashion across north KS/MO. This will allow for a broad moist and very unstable region east of the dryline and south of the warm front, including our area. The NBM mean has 2000-4000 J/kg across our area. The GEFS even suggests values up to 5000-6000 J/kg. Global model ensembles also place 35-45 kts of deep layer shear over this airmass. This is sparking 0.7-0.9 Extreme Forecast Index values for CAPE-Shear combo (with some shifting of the tail suggesting the chance for a more volatile environment). NSSL, NCAR, and CSU machine learning models are all picking up on this environment and placing enhanced severe probabilities in our area, especially west of Highway 65. For example, the NSSL GEFS machine learning model gives a 30-45% chance of areas west of Highway 65 to see some sort of severe weather watch Sunday and Monday. Early MPAS/RRFS CAM signals point to storms firing along the dryline in Kansas and Oklahoma during the afternoons of Sunday and Monday. These then progress eastward, evolving into an MCS over time, which fits the general evolution of May severe storms. Therefore, the main severe risk for us will be Sunday and Monday night and come from the evolution of these storms as they progress west to east. If an MCS becomes the main mode, wind and tornadoes would be the main hazards. If confluence bands happen to develop out ahead of the dryline, there is a scenario where supercells could develop in our CWA, allowing for all hazards to be present. Tuesday, more of a longwave trough is forecast to kick through, finally getting rid of the unstable airmass. Since a cold front will be associated with this system moving through, a greater (or at least more widespread) severe threat for our CWA appears possible Tuesday. There are still some subtle differences in timing and trough shape between the global ensembles, so details will need to be worked out. However, strong instability and kinematics associated with the system points to a severe threat Tuesday as well. It is also worth noting that with any thunderstorm complex Sunday and Monday, with southwesterly flow, any line that orients southwest to northeast could bring the potential for a slowing system and training heavy thunderstorms. With ESATs suggesting >99th percentile moisture in place, any training thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding. The best chance would be Sunday night and Monday night with any slowing thunderstorm complex. Cooler late next week: With the main system finally moving through, temperatures will cool down into the middle to upper 60s next Wednesday and Thursday. A signal for another storm system exists for next Friday as highs warm into the lower 70s, however, model certainty is low at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 For the 18z TAFS, convection has started developing ahead of a frontal boundary pushing into the area from the west. The conveciton stretched from near Springfield to Branson, but was quickly moving off to the east-northeast. Have thrown a prob30 group in for BBG until 20z, but most likely convection will be east of the area by the onset of the 18z TAFS. Should see conditions become VFR by about 20-21z through the remainder of the period. The gusty winds out of the southwest will diminish by this evening and then become light and variable during the evening and overnight period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ MESOSCALE...Titus SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Lindenberg ####018007744#### FXUS63 KGLD 161710 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1110 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southerly winds may develop behind the dryline over portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas Sunday afternoon, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. - Scattered thunderstorms may develop over portions of the Tri- State area late Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly along and north of Interstate 70. Low confidence in thunderstorm development and coverage in the NWS Goodland county warning area. Conditional potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 126 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 A large low pressure system is currently spinning across South Dakota attributing to a breezy wind field continuing for the forecast area through the day with wind gusts around 40 mph. Not anticipating any blowing dust concerns today but some very localized reductions in visibilities near fields may be possible as we did receive an MPing report of some dust near a field in northern Sherman county during the morning hours, have not had any details of what the visibility was. As the low continues to spin some vorticity maxima along with additional support with a 500mb shortwave increases the mid level moisture some. Am continuing to think that some virga, sprinkles or spotty showers are possible with this forcing, however with dry low levels in wake of yesterday's front do think any form precipitation will be hard pressed to reach the surface. I do still have some concerns of severe downburst potential in the dissipating stages of any updraft as Corfidi downshear vectors remain around 60 knots and inverted v soundings in place. HREF max wind gusts also do support this potential as well as hinting at some splotchy instances of 50-55 mph winds primarily along and west of Highway 25 into the evening hours; given how strong the Corfidi downshear vectors are and the winds at the top of the inverted v soundings do think there is some potential for sporadic wind gusts of 55-65 mph. Friday, the low pressure system across the northern Plains begins to move to the east and as it does so wind across the norther portion of the forecast area increases in response to this, would not be surprised if we have some 45 to even 50 mph winds across SW Nebraska. May need have an increase in fire spread potential especially if those winds do pan out as RH values are then forecast to fall into the upper teens to low 20s as the majority of out SW Nebraska counties missed out on any rainfall. Saturday, troughing across the western CONUS begins to take shape and moisture begins to return to the area from the southeast. Winds do look to become breezy with the southeastern winds as well gusting to 35-40 mph during the afternoon hours. High temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s are currently forecast. The majority of the day does look to be dry but during the afternoon a mid level shortwave does look to move into the northwest portions of the area. Dew points are fairly meager in the 40s based on current model guidance but wind shear is more than adequate around 40 knots to support some potential organization of storms. Large hail at this time looks to be the primary hazard. An even more conditional threat may be further south as moisture will be a little bit better along the northern extent of the moisture advection. The forcing further south is not nearly as good but does need watching. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 126 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 For the extended period, Sunday is currently the day to watch. A deep trough continues to move towards the area as a surface low begins to develop across southern Colorado and is forecast to eject northward across the CWA. Moisture is forecast to continue to stream into the area ahead of these features. Fog and stratus may be present as well during the morning hours Sunday with the continued stream of moisture advection. As the low moves to the north additional mid level forcing associated with the incoming trough ejects into the area. As the surface low begins to eject this will create a dry line to the east and a warm front moving to the north. All of these features combined sets up for a classic severe weather event for portions of the area. Forecast soundings show 1500-2500 j/kg and near 50 knots of effective shear in place across the area. Forecast soundings do show a cap in place through the afternoon so that may hinder development some but 12Z NAM runs indicate loaded gun soundings in place. As of current model guidance the difference between this set up and the other more conditional cap issue days is that the area has additional and closer to the area forcing that should help overcome this. Everything mentioned above all aligns with the current Day 4 15% outlook that the Storm Prediction Center has over the majority of the CWA. Will continue to monitor trends but at this time all hazards may be in play during the afternoon and evening hours for the CWA. Monday, the trough continues to move across the area and the surface low does some retrograding across Nebraska which may again brings some concern for some thunderstorm potential, severe potential for the CWA is a little iffy at this time based on the quality of moisture across the area. Winds do remain breezy as well throughout the day again gusting around 30-40 mph during the afternoon. Another breezy day is in store Tuesday as this low finally departs the area, on the back side of the system the GFS is currently indicating a 700mb jet of 45-55 knot wind gusts if this trend continues then winds may need to be increased a bit in future forecasts. Wednesday and through the remainder of the extended period, am seeing an increased signal for ridging developing across the western CONUS. If this continues then a reprieve from active and maybe even breezy conditions and a warm up may ensue. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period.. with cloud cover confined to scattered diurnal Cumulus ~7,000 ft AGL this afternoon. NW winds at 20-30 knots (gusting up to ~35 knots during the early afternoon) will decrease to 15-25 knots late this afternoon (~00Z). Winds will quickly diminish around, or shortly after, sunset this evening.. becoming light/variable by ~03Z. Light and variable winds will persist through the majority of Saturday morning, shifting to the ESE-SE and increasing to 10-15 knots near the end of the TAF period (~18Z Sat). MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period.. with cloud cover confined to scattered diurnal Cumulus ~5,000 ft AGL this afternoon. WNW to NW winds at 25-35 knots will decrease to 15-25 knots an hour or two prior to sunset (~00Z). Winds will quickly diminish around, or shortly after, sunset this evening.. becoming light/variable by ~03Z. Light and variable winds will persist through the majority of Saturday morning, shifting to the ESE-SE and increasing to 10-15 knots near the end of the TAF period (~18Z Sat). && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Vincent ####018009143#### FXUS66 KOTX 161711 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1011 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light Rain for the Idaho Panhandle and Eastern Washington Friday morning - Increasing rain showers on Saturday into Sunday with a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon - Breezy conditions Saturday night and Sunday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cool and showery weather pattern will continue through at least early next week. In addition, breezy winds are expected at times. && .DISCUSSION... Morning update: A quick update has been sent to increase POP's for this morning into the early afternoon based on observations and radar trends. A band of widespread light rain this morning from the Okanogan Valley and Highlands extending southeast into the Spokane Area, Palouse, and LC Valley will continue to slowly move east into the remainder of NE WA/N Idaho Panhandle through the early afternoon. Given the stratiform nature, have increased the chances of precipitation for areas under or soon to be under the band of stratiform rain. JW Previous Discussion: Today and tonight: Shower chances and cool weather marks the weather. A mid-level shortwave will moves across the region this morning and shift east this evening into tonight. This relatively weak feature will bring cloudy skies to much of the area and track light showers across eastern WA and north ID this morning. The steadier shower threat start to shift toward the Idaho Panhandle this afternoon, leaving more hit-and-miss shower chances over the eastern third of WA and some decrease in the clouds. The shower risk wanes this evening away from the mountains. The next system will start to move in and the precipitation chances will increase again overnight into Saturday morning over the Cascades and western basin. The best chance of wetting rain will be over the northern mountains and ID Panhandle, though the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area could come close. High temperature will largely be in the 50s, with 60s over the lee of the Cascades through upper Columbia Basin and L-C Valley and low 70s over the deeper basin. Patchy fog is also in the forecast for tonight into Saturday morning over the eastern valleys and higher Palouse and near bodies of water, given the rain moistening up the boundary layer and declining winds tonight. Saturday and Sunday: A deeper low pressure system impacts the area with some rain, a risk for t-storms, and developing breezy conditions. A mid-level shortwave tracks into the Oregon and south of the area early Saturday, then a more robust upper low tracks into the WA Cascades and slides east-southeast through the day, before dropping toward southern ID and the Great Basin heading into Sunday. For being only about 48 hours out, there is an uncommon amount of disagreement between the track and timing of this low. The current GFS and Canadian hold it near the Cascades and track in more quickly south into the Great Basin by later Sunday; the ECMWF and NAM track it slower and further east into central WA, before tracking toward southern Idaho by late Sunday. This has implications on how where the higher precipitation amounts lay, especially Saturday. However the potential for precipitation still remains high. The system carries modest lift the NE quadrant of the upper trough, with strong DIV-Q and 700-500mb omega and PWATs are about 120-150% of normal, with deformation axis over the southeast to eastern CWA. Rain chances increase over the Cascades and central WA Saturday morning, expanding eastward and increasing over east WA and ID in the afternoon into evening. The highest PoPs will be over the eastern third of the CWA Saturday night and Sunday, where the moisture will focus along the deformation axis, before the overall risk starts to wane Sunday night. Instability increase in the afternoon Saturday, bringing with the chance for some embedded t-storms. Rain amounts over the eastern third of WA and ID over the weekend are currently forecast to between 0.25 to 0.50, with local amounts near 0.75 to 1 inch over the mountains zones. We will have to watch for ponding of water on roads, rock and/or debris flow. An eye will have to be kept on some of the burn scars in the southeastern CWA too. Some cooler air with the system will also mean some higher mountains. There could even be a bit of snow around the passes; non-impactful snow at less than a half inch and even then it is hard for any snow to accumulate effectively on road surfaces this time of year. Winds increase Saturday night into Sunday. The winds first increase more notably near the downwind of the Cascades and the Blue Mountains Saturday night, then expand throughout much of the basin and Palouse even into the Spokane areas Sunday afternoon. Speeds of 15-25 mph are forecast, with gusts of 20-30 mph and locally up to 40 mph near the Waterville Plateau and near the Blue Mountains. High temperatures will be mostly in the 60s Saturday, with some upper 650s near the higher Cascade valleys and some low 70s in the deeper basin. Sunday will largely see highs in the 50s, with 60s in the lee of the Cascades/deeper basin and L-C Valley. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s, with some lower to mid-30s over the northern valleys with possible frost heading into Sunday night/Monday AM. So anyone with sensitive plants will have to think about protection. In addition to the cooler temperatures and possible frost, there is fog in the forecast. This will largely be in the sheltered valleys and near bodies of water. /Solveig Monday through Friday: The region will be under a zonal flow pattern a weak trough in the Gulf of Alaska and a flat ridge over Southwest Conus. It is expected to push several weak shortwaves through the Pacific Northwest and bring off and on showers for the period. The ensembles are in decent agreement for the period. As for amounts, the zonal movement of the waves will keep moisture content fairly low. Precipitable water is less than 100% of normal for the period. The West to East movement of the waves will limit precip amounts for the Central Basin. The rest of the region is only expected to receive a few hundredths with each wave. Winds will be breezy through the period. The winds will peak during the day with sustained in the teens and gusts into the 20-30 mph range. Winds will calm overnight. Temperatures will trend higher. Highs will climb from the 50s and low 60s on Sunday to the upper 60s and 70s by Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Band of stratiform light rain over Eastern WA/N Idaho will continue to slowly move east into the afternoon. MVFR and local IFR CIGS this morning will gradually rise into the afternoon and evening as the rain moves out, becoming VFR at KGEG/KSFF/KPUW near 22-23z this afternoon, and then at KCOE near 03z this evening. Overnight there is a risky of patchy fog over the valleys of NE WA/N Idaho due to a moist boundary layer, but confidence isn't high enough to include for the KGEG/KSFF/KCOE TAF sites. The next system will bringing in increase chance for rain showers in North Central WA Saturday morning, along with lowering CIGS possibly reaching MVFR at KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in continued MVFR conditions this morning through the early to mid afternoon over GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. Moderate confidence in timing of shift to VFR for these sites. Low confidence in fog with MVFR/IFR conditions at GEG/SFF/COE TAF sites overnight/early Saturday. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 57 43 64 43 58 40 / 100 20 50 60 50 20 Coeur d'Alene 53 41 64 43 55 40 / 100 20 40 70 60 30 Pullman 55 40 62 40 54 38 / 100 10 50 80 50 20 Lewiston 62 47 68 48 61 44 / 100 0 50 80 40 20 Colville 57 37 63 40 58 35 / 70 20 70 70 50 20 Sandpoint 54 42 64 44 53 41 / 100 30 50 60 70 40 Kellogg 51 43 63 43 51 41 / 100 20 40 70 80 30 Moses Lake 69 48 68 44 68 39 / 10 30 60 30 10 0 Wenatchee 68 51 65 46 64 41 / 10 30 60 20 10 0 Omak 65 46 64 43 66 39 / 60 20 70 50 20 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$ ####018007500#### FXUS65 KVEF 161712 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1012 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures will continue today with light afternoon breezes. A stray shower may develop along the Sierra crest this afternoon with gusty winds and sprinkles in the Owens Valley. A weather system will drop into the region over the weekend bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and shower chances to mainly the Great Basin. Conditions will improve next week with warm conditions resuming. && .UPDATE...Upper level water vapor satellite this morning showed a shortwave moving east into the Southern Great Basin this morning. With some moisture noted above 600mb on the Reno, NV and Las Vegas 12Z soundings, mid to high level clouds were able to develop of this feature. Further south in Clark, San Bernardino, and Mohave counties, it remained mostly sunny. This shortwave will continue to push east this afternoon. With minimal low level moisture, not expecting much more than scattered clouds as it makes its way through. However, HREF shows low-end instability developing in the Sierra and increasing 700mb upslope flow across the region, which could be enough to get a few showers and thunderstorms on the Sierra crest in the terrain of Nye and Esmeralda counties this afternoon. Sudden gusty winds would be possible with any isolated precipitation that developed. Most likely though, it will be dry today. Closer to the surface, winds will increase slightly as the shortwave moves through, however gusts will remain un-impactful with the highest gusts today expected around Barstow, CA where gusts to 25 MPH are likely late this afternoon. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday as temperatures climb slightly above normal this afternoon. -Nickerson- && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...427 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .SHORT TERM...through the weekend. Mostly clear skies exist across the region early this morning but a subtle shortwave is pushing some mid and high level cloud cover into Northern Nevada that will translate into our northern zones later today. Moisture looks to be just deep enough to spark a few showers and perhaps a lightning strike or two across the Sierra and Owens Valley regions this afternoon and evening, perhaps stretching into the Fish Lake Valley region in Esmeralda County as well. Otherwise, pleasant conditions are expected elsewhere with afternoon highs topping out near normal for mid- May. Larger changes will begin to take shape on Saturday as a deeper trough dips south into the Great Basin. This trough will work to tighten pressure gradients considerably across the region, with gusty southwesterly winds of 40-50 mph spreading from the Western Mojave Desert into Southwest Utah. Wind advisories remain in place for Saturday across much of the area. Will also need to take consideration for wind products across Inyo County and Esmeralda/central Nye Counties with both prefrontal southwesterly and post frontal northerly winds, which look to linger into Sunday evening across those areas. Held off on an expansion at this time due to uncertainties in how strong the post frontal wind will be and how long they will last. In addition to the winds, showery conditions will spread south along the base of the trough, with chances primarily favored across the Sierra and southern Great Basin zones. Overall model trends and shifted to a more progressive trough remaining a little further north, resulting in only low shower chances as far south as Las Vegas, as well as a less dramatic cooling for Sunday. An additional impulse may drop south behind the lead shortwave Sunday evening into Monday, which could enhance northerly winds overnight Sunday and bring about a brief shot at some shower activity, but guidance is not in total agreement on this possibility so we will continue to monitor trends. .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday. Ridging sets up over the region as the trough exits to the east. As this happens, temperatures will return to above average values. Las Vegas has a 63 percent probability of reaching its first 100 degree day on Thursday. By Thursday, expect widespread Moderate (Level 2) HeatRisk across the desert valleys, a level of heat that affects anyone sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate cooling or hydration. There is also the potential for some Major (Level 3) HeatRisk along the Colorado River, which affects anyone without effective cooling or hydration. Given the placement under high pressure, dry conditions and non-impactful winds are forecast through the long term. .UPDATE...Current satellite imagery shows clear skies across most of the area. Cloud cover will increase from the north to the south tonight and tomorrow as a weak shortwave moves through the area. Overnight lows will be near average for this time of year, which means lows in the mid 60s for Las Vegas. No forecast updates are necessary at this time. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Winds will remain under 10 knots and will follow typical diurnal directional trends through late morning when winds will pick up and swing to the south. These 15 to 25 knot gusts will continue through the afternoon and into the evening hours. As winds begin to increase and transition from northeast to south late this morning/early this afternoon it is possible that the terminal may be impacted by breezy southeasterly winds before winds finally settle in from the south. Winds will remain breezy, becoming more southwesterly around mid- afternoon. Winds will continue to maintain this southwesterly direction with gusts dropping off overnight before returning on Saturday morning. VFR conditions will prevail with FEW to BKN clouds aoa 15 kft filtering through the area. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...The Las Vegas and Colorado River Valley TAF sites will see relatively light winds, 10 knots or less, through mid-to-late morning when southerly-to- southwesterly winds will pick up accompanied by 15 to 20 knot wind gusts. These breezy southerly winds will continue into the evening hours when gusts will drop off with winds continuing to maintain a more southerly component. Light northwesterly winds at BIH will increase slightly and fall to the west later this afternoon. These westerly winds will continue into the evening hours before winds swing back to the northwest overnight. Winds at DAG will maintain a westerly direction through the TAF period with 20 to 25 knot wind gusts picking up this afternoon and continuing through Saturday morning. VFR conditions will prevail with FEW to BKN mid and high clouds filtering through the area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Outler LONG TERM...Meltzer AVIATION...Stessman For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter ####018006326#### FXUS65 KPUB 161713 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1113 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers across the central mountains today, otherwise warm and dry with slightly less wind expected. - Warming temperatures and breezy winds through the weekend. - Precipitation chances increase across the mountain Sunday, and the entire area on Monday as a system moves through. Wettest over and near our southeast mountains. - Another warm/dry trend for the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Currently...Upper shortwave crossing the Rocky Mt region early this morning produced some gusty west to northwest winds across the forecast area yesterday evening, as well as some ongoing light snow showers for the central mts. Temps as of 1 AM have cooled into the 30s for the high valleys, 40s and 50s for the eastern plains. Today and tonight...More of a quiet pattern settles in for the short term, as the flow aloft eases due to a lessening pressure gradient and lack of a prominent shortwave. The flow aloft will shift from the northwest to a more westerly direction through the day today, then become more southwesterly tonight. Models do hint at a few very isolated showers over the central mountains today, first early this morning as some residual activity diminishes, then firing back up around 1 or 2 PM and lasting for a few hours. Any activity that does occur is expected to be short-lived, with new snow accumulations generally less than an inch over the higher terrain of Lake and Chaffee counties. Otherwise, surface winds are forecast to be slightly lighter than previous days, 10 to 20 mph through the afternoon with occasional gusts to 25 mph, and near-critical fire weather conditions will be so spotty that further mention is not needed at this point. Clouds will be on the increase by midday, but overall a nice Spring day is on tap with normal temperatures forecast. Look for highs in the 60s for the high valleys and 70s to around 80F for the plains. Tonight overnight lows will dip into the 30s for the high valleys and 40s for the plains. Moore && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 336 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 On Saturday, increasing southwest flow will set in aloft as an upper trough digs down to our west. Temperatures will continue to warm, with highs over the eastern plains hitting the low-80s while the valleys see low-mid 70s. Looking at winds, gusty southwest flow will persist over the higher terrain, while lee cyclogenesis brings in breezy southeast winds to the plains. Models do show some moisture advection, and possibly some instability, into northern CO. However, our area still appears too dry to expect much in the way of convection. A few weak, isolated thunderstorms may be possible in the afternoon over the Palmer Divide, and a smaller chance for a storm or two southeast towards Baca County along a weak boundary, but that would be about it. Meanwhile, isolated to scattered showers are expected over the peaks of the Continental Divide once again. Looking later in the weekend and into next week, models have been rather consistent in the evolution of the upper-level pattern. A split system will dig down in the embedded trough over the western CONUS, sending one area of low pressure just north of us while the other moves to our south. On Sunday, the first half of this system will move into our area. Gusty southwest winds will persist throughout most of the day, resulting in elevated fire weather concerns, though fuels are, at this time, still too green for any highlights. Gusts are expected to be frequent, and 35 mph or more, which could result in areas of blowing dust. High temperatures will also be a few degrees warmer than Saturday. The deepening trough will also bring in some more moisture along with synoptic lift, increasing the coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain, including the Palmer Divide, that should last through the night and into Monday. As we move more into next week, the initial system ejects to our northeast as the second, strong low begins moving past the Four Corners Region and into our area. While there are still some discrepancies between the different solutions, a few things have become more consistent. This secondary low will dive a bit south of the Colorado border, bringing a cold front across the plains Monday morning. Along with much cooler conditions, the system will bring ample moisture with it, bringing higher precip chances to most of southeast Colorado through Monday Night. QPF forecast is still uncertain, largely dependent on the exact track and strength of the upper low, but as of now the GFS is still more aggressive with totals compared to other deterministic guidance. Stuck with the blended solution for now until confidence increases between solutions, but generally the highest precip amounts will be over and adjacent to our southeast mountains, enhanced locally by easterly upslope flow and the passing cold front. Temperatures behind the front will leave high temps in the 60s-70s across our forecast area. Moving towards mid-week, more zonal flow takes over the pattern once again. Synoptic forcing wanes, with mainly dry and warming conditions once again, with high temperatures creeping back into the low-80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1111 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through the next 24 hours. Gusty west to northwest winds near 25 to 30 kts will continue into this afternoon. Flow turns southerly at KALS this evening and weakens. A boundary will shift winds north to northeast at KCOS and KPUB this evening. Winds will then swing southeasterly at both terminals mid morning Saturday. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...MOZLEY ####018011132#### FXUS65 KABQ 161714 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1114 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1112 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 - Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather late this weekend and early next week. Winds will be strongest on Sunday and Monday when gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common, leading to an increased risk of rapid fire spread. - Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will develop over northwestern to north central New Mexico Sunday and Monday with a few thunderstorms also accompanying in the afternoon and early evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 146 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 The subtropical jet remains to the south of the forecast area, however the Low currently off the coast of Baja California will begin to move northeastward this afternoon, pushing high clouds in from the south this evening into the overnight. A light westerly breeze will prevail around the region today and a subtle rise in heights will help increase high temps a few to several degrees over yesterday's values. Highs in the 70s and 80s along with lows in the 40s and 50s will be right around 30yr averages for this time of year. Once again, smoke from the Greer Fire in Arizona may create some haze and smoke in southwestern areas, but significant reductions in air quality are unlikely since winds will be relatively weak today. The aformentioned Low opens and ejects across south-central NM on Saturday, increasing wind speeds. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be commonplace over the entire forecast area, with the strongest winds in the Sacramento mountains where there may be a few afternoon gusts upwards of 45 mph. The increase of moisture aloft will result in an expansion of cloud cover, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 146 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 An upper level trough will move out of the Great Basin Saturday night and trek just north of the Four Corners area by Sunday morning. This will lead to a confluence of the polar and subtropical jets over NM with the polar segment hosting speeds of 100 kt at 300 mb as it precedes the trough. This increased gradient aloft and a deepening surface low over the eastern border of CO will yield stronger winds at the surface over NM. For now, the northeastern highlands and high plains, as well as the highlands of southwestern Chaves county, appear to be candidates for a possible Wind Advisory Sunday with gusts of 45 to 50 mph. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be more commonplace in surrounding zones. Precip looks to largely bypass NM, but a few scant showers and thunderstorms will develop near the NM-CO border in our northwestern zones. Temperatures would cool a few degrees in these zones as heights lower and the Pacific front begins to overtake. Into Monday, the vort lobe associated with the aforementioned trough will lift into the northern high plains and badlands of WY/NE/SD while a new upstream low races southeastward on its backside. There is some spread among model solutions with regards to how far south this second low will drop. The evening runs of the GFS are coming in much farther south into NM by late Monday. This would increase the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms over northwestern to north central zones while shunting the strongest winds farther south if this solution pans out. Ensemble means and the blended 50th percentile precip still paints meager QPF over northwestern and north central zones, generally 0.15 or less. Wind will remain strong with a new surface low quickly developing over the panhandles, trying to beat the next rapidly encroaching Pacific front. Winds would veer more west northwest on Monday, and the strongest speeds would be found over the central mountain chain where at least brief advisory level gusts (50 mph) would develop. The low will exit into the panhandles as an opening wave Monday night with brisk northwest to northerly winds persisting overnight. Breezes would reduce through the day Tuesday, mostly retaining the northwesterly to northerly direction. Western and central zones will actually begin to undergo significant warming of 5 to 10 degrees Tuesday as pressure heights rise again. A subtle upper ridge will then build in for Wednesday while surface winds veer in response to a surface high building down the southern plains. The polar jet would be considerably weaker through Tuesday and Wednesday, but would potentially start to increase over the northern Rockies by Thursday, as it ushers in a shortwave trough. For now, this seems to be displaced far enough north to keep winds from increasing much in NM. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR prevails all areas as southwesterly winds increase this afternoon. Widespread gusts reaching 15 to 25 kts will be present through the afternoon before diminishing this evening. Southwest winds pick up again late Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 146 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Wind speeds will generally be weaker than the past couple of days around the forecast area today, with localized gusty winds confined to areas in and around the northern mountains. Fire weather concerns increase Saturday as a Low opens and ejects across central NM. The increase in winds and very low humidity will create critical fire weather concerns in south-central NM along the Rio Grande Valley, however a Fire Weather Watch was not issued due to how localized condtions appear right now. Winds will trend stronger on Sunday as a Pacific storm system approaches from the northwest. The atmospheric conditions for critical fire weather are likely across much of the area, however fuels will be a limiting factor in many areas, including most of eastern NM due to recent rainfall. While fuels may be receptive in west-central and northwestern NM, higher humidities in the wake of a cold front look to limit fire weather concerns there. Temperatures drop areawide Monday behind another, stronger front and some light precipitation may even develop over the higher terrain of western and northern NM. Temperatures rebound mid-week, rising above seasonal averages by late week. With the polar jet off to the north, winds look to remain light enough to keep fire weather concerns at bay Tuesday through at least the end of the workweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 75 42 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 71 30 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 71 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 74 33 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 71 39 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 77 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 74 40 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 77 48 76 45 / 0 0 5 0 Datil........................... 74 42 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 81 36 78 38 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 84 38 83 43 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 65 34 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 71 48 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 69 44 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 40 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 58 35 61 35 / 0 0 5 0 Angel Fire...................... 65 30 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 72 35 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 70 39 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 78 43 81 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 72 47 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 75 43 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 80 56 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 51 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 47 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 82 50 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 84 42 84 46 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 82 49 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 83 41 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 83 49 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 83 42 83 47 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 77 51 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 82 50 83 50 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 87 52 86 49 / 0 0 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 73 47 75 46 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 75 48 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 75 44 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 38 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 71 43 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 75 46 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 75 45 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 80 55 78 51 / 0 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 74 49 73 49 / 0 0 5 0 Capulin......................... 70 41 73 42 / 0 0 5 0 Raton........................... 76 40 78 41 / 0 0 5 0 Springer........................ 76 39 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 74 42 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 79 48 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 76 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 83 48 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 49 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 83 51 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 85 56 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 85 53 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 85 52 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 90 61 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 86 56 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 85 54 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NMZ106-109. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...24 ####018006483#### FXUS63 KLSX 161714 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 1214 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along or just ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds in excess of 80 mph are the primary threats. A few tornadoes are also possible. If tornadoes do develop, they could be strong. - After a dry Saturday, the chance for rain returns Sunday and continues into next week, with the highest chances on Monday night and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The primary concern in the short term is the severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon. The environment this afternoon will be characterized by high CAPE and moderate to strong (mostly) linear deep-layer shear. All short range deterministic guidance develops 3000+ J/Kg MLCAPE and as much as 4000+ J/Kg by around 18Z this afternoon ahead of the front. 0-6km shear on all guidance is a respectable 50-60kts as well. Forecast soundings show steep (7.5- 8.5C/km) mid level lapse rates with 2000+ J/Kg CAPE in the hail growth zone. With that kind of instability and shear, rotating updrafts are very likely, and this kind of environment almost guarantees hail in excess of 2 inches. Low level lapse rates on forecast soundings are basically dry adiabatic with deep inverted-V signatures all the way to 850mb, so downdraft winds from supercells could produce wind gusts in excess of 80 mph. Linear shear will support splits and, depending on coverage, mergers leading to upscale growth. All this leads to a high confidence in severe weather this afternoon. With that said, where and when convective initiation will occur is still somewhat uncertain. The general consensus in most of the deterministic models, including most CAMs is that CI will occur between 18-20Z this afternoon over east central and southeast Missouri. The HRRR has been particularly consistent in showing this the past several runs. HREF probability of 2000+ J/Kg SBCAPE/>25 CINH/and 45kt+ 0-6km shear maxes out at around 60% during that period just west of the STL Metro area, extending southwest near the I-44 corridor. This lends confidence to an early/mid afternoon CI west of the Mississippi. There is a less likely scenario depicted by the deterministic GFS and ECMWF where CINH is stronger, and there isn't enough low level convergence along the front to initiate convection until later in the afternoon over far southeast Missouri and south central Illinois. To be clear, I think this scenario is less likely, but it is plausible. One way or another, forecast storm motion is 45-50kts, so even if the storms fire in east central Missouri, they should clear eastern portions of the CWFA by 22-00Z. The remainder of the short term looks quiet with the cold front moving down into Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley. Cooler and drier air will spill into the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight and Saturday. Lows Saturday morning will range from around 50 in northeast Missouri to the mid to upper 50s in the STL Metro and parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Highs Saturday will be around 10 degrees cooler than Today in the mid 70s to around 80. Carney && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Thursday) Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 We look to continue with the active pattern into early next week as the LREF shows another upper low now moving into the Midwest by the middle of next week. The cluster analysis is showing some spread with regards to the track and the timing of the upper low which could affect potential heavy rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms. We will begin to see the chances for showers and thunderstorms to slowly increase late Saturday night into Sunday as the LREF is showing a warm front beginning to move north from the Missouri/ Arkansas border. The chances will be highest on Sunday night and again Monday night when it is likely that a low level jet will set up the potential for MCSs to track along and north of the warm front and the LREF members have it's highest chances (70-90%) for rain both on Sunday/early Monday and Monday night/early Tuesday. Most of it's members are also producing rain as it brings a surface low and cold front through the area late Tuesday. I couldn't rule out a few hail producers with these MCSs given the forecast CAPE profiles and the deep layer shear. The deterministic GFS/ECMWF are showing MLCAPES in the 1000-1500 J/kg range with deep layer shear of 40-50 knots on Tuesday, so depending of the track of the upper low, a few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible. The LREF is still advertising around a 60% chance of >2" of rainfall over the next 7 days over the entire area with only about of 10% of >4" of rainfall. Still, this higher chance is possible with any training thunderstorms that occur with the MCSs. The low will move off to the east by late next week and northwesterly flow will set up aloft. After temperatures mainly in the 70s and 80s Sunday into Tuesday, highs will fall off into the 60s for the mid to late next week. Britt && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop along a cold front over the next couple of hours. The metro terminals still have the best chance, but coverage is too low to be confident enough to introduce a prevailing or a TEMPO. Any thunderstorm that does directly impact a terminal would have the capability of producing low visibilities in heavy downpours and large hail with some wind threat as well. Storms will move off to the east quickly, with dry weather and VFR conditions favored thereafter. Winds are expected to veer through this evening, with west/northwest winds behind the front. Gusts may diminish or at least weaken this evening before picking back up again by mid morning on Saturday. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018008912#### FXUS64 KHGX 161714 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1214 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 We're only in mid May and I'm already running out of ways to say that it's hot, so let me just crack open the ol' thesaurus here and find a good word to use. Let's see...steamy is a good one since high humidity is implied...there's also sizzling but that reminds me more of fajitas than weather...oh how about this one...sweltering! Yeah we'll go with that...sweltering conditions continue as we remain under the influence of ridging aloft that will keep us at least near record temperatures...and that's for both daily high maximum temperatures and daily high minimum temperatures (looking at you Palacios). It's not all bad news though as there are some slim rain chances to discuss for our northern areas, but we'll focus on the hot topic first. High temperatures both today and Saturday will top out in the mid to upper 90s for areas along and north of I-10 with upper 80s to mid 90s south of I-10. Dew points remain VERY elevated, so we'll continue to see heat indices peaking in the 100-105°F range. The HeatRisk map through Saturday outlines most of Southeast Texas in a major risk for heat-related impacts (level 3 out of 4), so be sure to take the proper precautions to keep you and your loved ones (including your pets) safe from the heat. Heat-related illnesses typically spike during early season heat events like this...take a little bit of time to learn the signs/symptoms. There won't be much relief during the overnight hours with low temperatures only in the mid to upper 70s. As mentioned earlier, even the low temperatures will be near record territory (high minimum temperatures). Our only sources of relief other than the A/C is that we'll keep our southerly breeze going (albeit lighter than previous days) along with a slim chance for rain both this evening and Saturday evening. Latest surface analysis reveals a frontal boundary over central Texas and a dry line extending southwestward from that boundary into western Texas. These won't move all that much during the day, maybe just a bit more southward. 00Z CAM guidance is in agreement on convection firing off of either one or both of these boundaries this afternoon and drifting eastward. Like we talked about yesterday, there is a capping inversion aloft that this convection would have to battle as it moves into an area of increased subsidence. So, the main question is will these storms survive long enough to bring any rain to the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods going into the evening...and the answer is maybe? Giving it about a 15-20% chance of occuring. Can you tell how desperate we are to talk about something other than the heat that I spent nearly an entire paragraph talking about a 20% chance of rain? Yeah...that's where we're at already... More good news! Everything I just said in the above paragraph...add 24 hours to that and apply it to Saturday. The main difference is the dry line will be a bit further west, but the latest CAM guidance still has decent consensus that at least a couple of storms could survive long enough for another round low-end PoPs for our northern areas. Is this a good time to mention that winds should subside enough tonight into Saturday morning for a decent chance of patchy fog development? No? Whelp...we'll call that a mist opportunity :P TL;DR: Near record to record breaking heat continues with a slim chance of rain up north late in the day both today and Saturday. Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 We will remain in a benign weather period through the long-term courtesy of a mid-level ridge stationed over the Gulf. This positioning of the high pressure system will result in continued southerly/onshore flow which will lead to prevailing hot and humid conditions. Daily highs will continue to run well above normal for this time of year Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10, low to mid 90s south of I-10 and in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. While Heat indices are projected to be in the 100-107F range inland, the position of a stalled boundary may result in a tighter pressure gradient and lead to stronger winds. This could consequently make temperatures feel slightly cooler; however, heat impacts will still be a concern. The mid-upper level trough will move across the Plains next week. This could bring slightly cooler temperatures to portions of the area; however, highs will generally be in the 90s. Another weak front is projected to stall in Central Texas, which will lead to an increase in moisture over SE Texas (PW around 1.7-2.0"). Again, this could lead to a tightening pressure gradient and stronger surface winds for Monday and Tuesday (15-20 mph). This will provide a bit of relief with heat. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible for the Brazos Valley and portions of the Piney woods region on Tuesday. Otherwise, the heat and humidity continues...continue to exercise heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity during the afternoon hours, staying hydrated, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! Adams && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MVFR CIGS should scatter & lift over the next hour, ushering in VFR conditions throughout the rest of the daytime. Gusty south winds continue this afternoon, easing and becoming light this evening. MVFR CIGS should slowly fill in from the coast during the late afternoon/tonight, with IFR CIGS looking more feasible during the early morning hours of Saturday (compared to this morning), mostly in areas south of I-10. Isolated patchy fog will be possible as well during the pre-dawn hours. CIGS/Fog will scatter, lift and clear during the mid to late morning hours as gusty winds resume. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Southeast winds are expected to prevail through the period as a surface high remains parked over the Gulf. Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail at least through next Wednesday. Winds and seas could reach advisory levels at times early next week. Overall, dry and warm weather will prevail within the next 7 days. Beach and Swimming Conditions: Above average water levels are expected, especially during the high tide cycles. This could result in isolated/minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides through early this evening. The risk of rip currents also continues along all Gulf-facing beaches and will likely persist into the weekend. Adams && .CLIMATE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 With multiple days of near record to record breaking heat possible going into early next week, here's a look at the daily high temperature records through Tuesday (May 20th). May 16th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 95F (2003) - Houston/IAH: 94F (2022) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022) - Palacios: 88F (2010) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 17th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (1925) - Houston/IAH: 96F (2018) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018) - Palacios: 93F (2003) - Galveston: 90F (2020) May 18th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 98F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2022) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022) - Palacios: 89F (2022) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 19th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 94F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2003) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008) - Palacios: 89F (2024) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 20th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2020) - Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008) - Palacios: 95F (1943) - Galveston: 91F (2022) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 76 96 75 / 10 20 20 20 Houston (IAH) 95 77 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 87 77 86 78 / 0 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Batiste LONG TERM....Adams AVIATION...03 MARINE...Adams ####018003778#### FXUS64 KOHX 161715 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1215 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - A few discrete storms will be possible across areas along and north of I-65 this afternoon. The main weather threat will be large hail and winds. This will be a head of the front and more widespread severe weather. - A dynamic weather system will bring the potential for all modes of severe weather to Middle Tennessee this evening through 2 am Saturday morning. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. - Unsettled weather continues into the weekend, though the severe threat will be low. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The earlier severe watch has been allowed to expire. There were a couple of storms that became perky. The CAMS are showing the possibility of a few discrete storms this afternoon. The main threat with these discrete storms will be wind and hail. The stronger storms will be with the line of storms this evening and into the overnight hours. Please see previous AFD for the details. Highlights...the discrete storms will form into a line most likely entering the northwest forecast area between 8 to 10 pm. Nashville Metro entering around 10 to midnight. Exiting the Cumberland Plateau around 2 to 3 am. This will be a fast moving line. All forms of severe weather will be possible from winds to 70 mph...large hail...and tornadoes. Since the storms will be moving so fast flooding is not a first level concern unless there are some training storms. As mentioned previously...now is the time to make sure preparations are in place. Make sure your friends and family are aware too and have multiple ways of receiving warnings. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Unsettled weather will still be possible next week. There is a marginal risk (1/5) on Sunday as a warm front moves north across middle TN. A low moves out New Mexico/Colorado with a warm front that will meander around the southeast US Sunday through Wednesday. Being spring time...afternoon and evening strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. Thursday will be "best" weather day with the lowest chance for rain. Temperatures for the long term will be highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Even with intense storms expected at all Middle TN terminals this evening, IFR conditions should be the bottom for flight categories for a few hours at each site. Have given a best first- guess on timing with tempos at each. These may need to be adjusted with radar truth later today. Winds will be gusty starting around 16Z. SSW gusts of 20-25 kts will be common at all terminals until after 06Z/Sat. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 88 65 85 / 90 0 30 50 Clarksville 66 85 62 82 / 80 0 30 30 Crossville 63 80 59 79 / 90 0 20 40 Columbia 66 87 65 83 / 80 0 40 60 Cookeville 64 82 60 80 / 80 0 20 40 Jamestown 62 82 57 79 / 90 0 10 30 Lawrenceburg 66 86 64 82 / 80 0 40 60 Murfreesboro 66 87 63 83 / 90 0 30 50 Waverly 64 84 63 82 / 80 0 40 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION.....Unger