####018006415#### FXUS64 KTSA 172304 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 604 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 - A multi-day period of potential severe weather is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas. - Highest confidence in high impact and widespread severe weather remains Monday into Monday night. - Cooler and drier weather for the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Thunderstorm initiation has occurred near and south of the Red River in the vicinity of a surface warm front. An expansive cu field extends north of the Red River into Choctaw, Pushmataha and far southern Pittsburg County at this time, with the more vigorous cu located closer to the surface front about a county south of the river in North Texas. A highly unstable atmosphere is present across southeast Oklahoma, with mid 70s dew points leading to CAPE in excess of 5000 J/kg on the latest mesoanalysis. Once storms develop, they should form into one or more clusters and eventually, into an organized line. Very large hail remains a favored threat given the available instability and deep layer shear present, with an increasing threat from damaging winds. The tornado threat will be maximized near boundaries and early in the event. This initial severe weather threat looks to move east of the area by mid to late evening. An additional batch of storms may develop well to the west along the 850 mb front late afternoon and move eastward into northeast Oklahoma and eventually, northwest Arkansas during the evening and into early Sunday morning. The severity with the northern storms, especially early on, will likely hinge on how much moisture moves northward through the rest of the afternoon and evening given the dry low levels currently present. Dew points trends from the Mesonet indicate this is already happening to some degree. Given this, expect that hail and wind will be the main threats. Scattered redevelopment into Sunday morning may continue across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas largely due to the low level jet. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The severe weather threat will continue into the early part of the upcoming work week, with potential for high impact weather both Sunday and Monday. Much more pleasant conditions remain on deck by the middle of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday at sunrise, focused in areas north of I-40, with potential for additional development in far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas continuing through the morning. At least isolated severe storm potential will exist Sunday morning given the high instability likely to be in place. Development on Sunday afternoon and evening will likely be tied to the warm front near the Oklahoma/Kansas border and the dryline across western Oklahoma, spurred on by a weak disturbance moving northeastward through the region. The highest tornado threat locally should be in areas northwest of I-44 near the triple point. Questions remain regarding the amount of thunderstorm coverage late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night with some capping evident on forecast soundings. Monday and into Monday night, confidence is highest in more widespread development given the proximity of the upper level system and upper level jet. Upper level diffluence across the region will support potential for open warm sector development, with additional development near the dryline in western Oklahoma. All modes of severe weather should be expected, with the threats continuing into early Tuesday morning. The cold front should begin to catch up to the dryline Monday night and into Tuesday morning, which should force any Tuesday severe weather threat into the eastern portion of the forecast area and also earlier in the day. Cooler and drier weather should arrive by Tuesday evening, with a period of below normal temperatures looking likely. Low shower and thunderstorm chances reenter the forecast late in the week in association with disturbances in the northwest flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will approach KMLC the next two hours with the potential for hail, lightning, heavy rain, strong winds, some of these storms could be severe. These storms may move towards KFSM the next few hours but will likely weaken as they do so. Additional storms are expected to move through areas near and north of I-40 in the late evening through the early overnight hours. These storms will also be potentially severe. Then, for the second half of the night scattered storms and rainfall will continue in far northeast OK towards northwest AR. Yet another round of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, will occur late Sunday afternoon. Winds will generally be light at 5-15 kts with a few gusts to 20 kts out of the east or southeast through the period. However, much stronger winds with erratic directions are expected near storms. Ceilings will develop for eastern OK for a few hours late tonight into Sunday morning, then probably rising just above 3 kft mid morning. Local visibility reductions may occur in any thunderstorms. Due to the repeated rounds of storms, each of which affects the following, forecast confidence is lower than normal so check back in for the latest updates. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 62 82 68 81 / 50 60 50 60 FSM 66 86 69 85 / 30 50 50 70 MLC 65 82 70 81 / 30 40 40 80 BVO 57 79 65 82 / 60 60 60 60 FYV 61 82 66 82 / 40 60 60 70 BYV 60 80 66 83 / 50 60 60 60 MKO 62 81 66 81 / 30 50 50 80 MIO 60 79 66 81 / 60 70 70 70 F10 62 81 68 80 / 30 50 40 70 HHW 67 82 68 81 / 50 30 30 80 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...06 ####018005216#### FXUS62 KMFL 172306 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 706 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1222 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Surface high pressure over the region and upper level high pressure over the Gulf will keep South FL mostly dry and warm this weekend. Only exception may be a few late day showers or thunderstorms early this evening and again on Sunday evening over the interior and around the lake region aided by sea-breeze collisions, but PoPs max out at only around 10% today and 15-20% tomorrow. Afternoon highs today and Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the metro, and low to mid 90s over the interior. Max apparent temps will be in the upper 90s to around 100 in the metro, and 100-105 over the interior. Low temps tonight will range from the upper 60s over Big Cypress to mid and upper 70s across the metro. Calm winds and clear skies over interior SW FL overnight may result in some patchy fog early Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Early Next Week... High pressure over the Florida Peninsula will move slowly east into the Western Atlantic waters early next week, as some Saharan Dust moves through the Caribbean Sea and clips South Florida. This will keep the weather dry over South Florida along with very warm to hot temperatures. Highs each day will be in the lower to mid 90s over the metro areas to mid to upper 90s over the interior areas. Heat Indices will be near 100 over the metro areas with lower to mid 100s over the interior areas each afternoon. Lows each night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s over the interior areas to mid 70s over the metro areas. Middle To End Of Next Week... The high will continue to move slowly eastward further into the Atlantic waters allowing for a weak cold front to move southward and through South Florida by end of next Week. This will allow for the steering flow to become more south/southwest over South Florida shifting the hottest temperatures to the eastern areas on Wednesday and Thursday. There will also be a slight chance of showers on Thursday mainly over the east coast metro areas where the sea breezes collide. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the near records over the east coast metro areas with mid to upper 90s over the eastern areas. Rest of South Florida will see highs in the lower to mid 90s except around 90 over Naples area. Heat index readings each afternoon will be in the lower to mid 100s over most areas except around 100 over the Naples area. Lows each night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s over the interior areas to mid to upper 70s metro areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 704 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF period. Winds become light and variable overnight after 01Z. Morning winds become SE around 10 kts around 17Z, with a westerly gulf breeze at APF. && .MARINE... Issued at 1222 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Mostly benign marine conditions persist through the weekend, with light winds and seas 2 ft or less. A few late day showers or thunderstorms are possible late Sunday across Lake Okeechobee. && .CLIMATE... Below are the forecast highs and record highs for middle of next week over the east coast ASOS sites. Cities Forecast Highs Record Highs Forecast High Record Highs 5/21/25 5/21/25 5/22/25 5/22/25 MIA 96 95 - 2008 95 95 - 1990 FLL 95 96 - 2008 94 95 - 1990 PBI 96 96 - 2008 95 95 - 1962 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 0 West Kendall 74 93 73 93 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 76 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 Homestead 76 91 75 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 77 89 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 76 90 76 90 / 0 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 78 95 78 95 / 0 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 75 91 75 91 / 0 10 0 0 Boca Raton 75 92 75 92 / 0 10 0 0 Naples 74 89 74 90 / 0 10 0 0 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 91 76 90 / 10 10 0 0 West Kendall 74 93 73 93 / 10 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 76 93 76 93 / 10 10 0 0 Homestead 76 91 75 90 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 77 89 76 89 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 76 90 76 90 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 78 95 78 95 / 10 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 75 91 75 91 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 75 92 75 92 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 74 89 74 90 / 10 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...JS