####018005895#### FXUS61 KILN 161730 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 130 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will fuel the development of thunderstorms today. The potential exists for some of the storms to be severe late this afternoon into tonight. Cooler temperatures and drier weather will follow heading into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Increased PoPs across the south with the morning update based on radar trends with convection focused mostly over northern Kentucky. In addition, the cloud shield associated with these storms have led to slightly lower max temps this afternoon. Latest CAMs have started backing off storm development for late this afternoon into the evening. Will need to monitor these trends for more significant grid updates. Previous discussion: Main focus today is the potential for a significant severe weather outbreak. In the warm sector strong instability is expected to develop today with SBCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg. This combined with increasing deep layer shear (effective shear around 60 kts) will lead to the threat for strong to severe storms. CAM solutions continue to show a very good signal for storm development to our west - which organizes into bowing segments as they move eastward into the Ohio Valley. This complex of strong to severe storms is expected to impact the area late this afternoon into this evening. Exact timing is still somewhat uncertain but the greatest impacts look to occur as early as 5 pm across eastern Indiana/southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky and then spread quickly east across the area thru the evening. All severe weather hazards are possible from these storms. The greatest threat area for significant severe weather is across the Cincinnati Tri-state region. There is also the possibility of locally heavy rain which could result in flash flooding. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and a plan in place should a warning be issued. In the humid airmass high temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 80s. Southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Storms diminishing quickly late this evening into the overnight hours. A low pop shower or storm threat will continue across the far northern counties overnight in response to a shortwave rotating around the upper low moving into the Great Lakes. Lows tonight range from near 60 north to the lower 60s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Mid and upper level low pressure to track thru Great Lakes on Saturday. Shortwave energy rotating around this low will lead to a low chance of a shower and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm across the extreme northeast counties. In the wake of a surface cold front southwest to west winds to gust up to 30 mph. In less humid and cooler conditions high temperatures to range from the upper 60s northwest to the upper 70s southeast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A building upper ridge in the Plains will result in increasing heights over the Ohio Valley through at least Monday evening. The ridge axis still remains to the w over WI although heights in our area will level out with the amplitude of the ridge decreasing in response to encroaching low pressure from the west. Models begin to diverge Tues afternoon, leading to lower confidence in mass fields beyond this time. The next threat of rainfall will occur in the southwest Monday morning as a strong lobe of s/w energy undercuts the upper level ridge and then tracks se in the mean downstream upper flow. Overnight Monday and Tuesday stand the best chance for widespread rain affecting the entire CWA as a surface warm front sets up w-e near the Ohio River. At this time, upper level ridge weakens and s/w energy continues to race eastward across CWA. A surface low will follow the warm front eastward and into the CWA. Placement and timing differences are noted but the overall picture is that the low will be situated over the CWA, bringing an increased potential for widespread rainfall. Sfc low moves east, but axis of the upper low has yet to cross the Ohio Valley and a lingering potential for rain exists through Wed. A seasonable temperature range is dominant in the forecast. Highs in the low-mid 70s Sun drop to the upper 60s/low 70s Mon, slightly cooler by 1-3 deg Tues. Northwest flow at the end of the forecast has highs in the mid 60s Wed, and near 60 Thurs. Overnight lows take a similar trajectory with low-mid 50s Sat/Sun nights, upper 40s to upper 50s Mon night, low-mid 50s Tues night, near 50 Wed night and in the upper 40s Thurs night. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main aviation weather impact for this period will be an advancing line of storms moving through most of the terminals early this evening. While a few of the recent CAMs have backed off storm coverage, the latest HRRR as well as the MPAS still show the storms currently developing across Missouri growing upscale into a semi-continuous squall line as they reach DAY, CVG, and LUK by around 23Z-00Z. Damaging winds will be the main threat, so have kept the tempo group for this. Winds will shift more westerly behind a cold front set to arrive to the region Saturday morning. This should allow for decreasing clouds but gusty winds for the rest of the period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION... ####018004159#### FXAK67 PAJK 161731 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 931 AM AKDT Fri May 16 2025 .UPDATE...Update to aviation section to include the 18z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM... Moist atmosphere continues with the occluded front passing north. Orographic lift will be keeping lingering rain seemingly indefinitely, but expect rain to stick around only for today. Skies look to remain overcast for the entire day, as a strong trough dips down into CONUS. This will leave very light, southerly flow aloft, leaving nothing to drive out the mid level moisture. With the bulk of the front past the panhandle, winds will be on the downward trend, leaving aviation concerns for low clouds, but little concern for those near sea level. .LONG TERM... Light precipitation lingers into Saturday morning diminishing throughout the day. This allows for a brief break from the rain late Saturday night into Sunday morning with ridging over the panhandle. This break comes to an end as a low moves east across the southern panhandle stalling west-southwest of POW. The focus of this low will be winds increasing near Haida Gwaii into Clarence Strait. Near Gale winds of 25 to 30 kts will develop around this low with Gale force wind gusts. Total rain amounts remain below an inch with ensembles showing less than a 60% chance of receiving an inch of rain over the southern panhandle in 24 hours. The heaviest rain rates are expected Monday morning. During this time, the northern part of the panhandle remains dry with winds at or below 10 to 15 kts. Some differences in models show the location of the low either moving slightly north, or continuing to move southeast. If the low moves slightly more north, more of the panhandle could receive rain. After the low dissipates, light rain with breaks, will continue into mid to late week next week. && .AVIATION...Quick moving low is zipping north along the coast early this morning. As the panhandle transitions to the backside of the low, the area will see onshore flow, which should keep the clouds and rain showers in place through Friday night. Saturday, ridging builds over SE AK which should lift aviation flying conditions. So for the forecast, mainly MVFR conditions will be found around the area today. Some isolated lower conditions are being reported but these should improve through the morning. Continued improving conditions from south to north beginning later tonight as the ridge builds. Some isolated LLWS is possible this morning for the northern panhandle, due to that quick moving low. Latest high-resolution models are hinting at 40% to 60% probabilities of LLWS >20kt in Icy Strait, Glacier Bay, and around Juneau with those probabilities moving north into Lynn Canal later this morning. That being said, by 22z, the probabilities drop below 20% with below 10% probabilities by 00z. No LLWS expected this evening into tonight. && .MARINE...Outside: Early this morning will see the trending down of winds in the outer gulf, and with it, significant wave heights. Surface ridging in the eastern gulf, which will drive the winds in the inner channels, will create a split flow in the gulf, with westerly to northwesterly fresh breezes near Prince of Wales Island, and southwest light breezes near the NE Gulf Coast going into tomorrow. Inside: A southerly push of moderate to fresh breezes impacting Lynn Canal, Chatham Strait and Clarence Friday late morning into the afternoon will be driven by the post frontal ridging to the south. Not expecting long lasting enhanced wind speeds, as divergent surface flow in the gulf will largely leave light air conditions for the inner waters tonight. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ644-651-652-661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...NC LONG TERM....EAB AVIATION...GJS MARINE...NC Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau ####018004109#### FXUS63 KDLH 161731 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain showers throughout today and lingering into Saturday. - Much cooler temperatures with highs dropping into the 40s and 50s for the weekend. For context that is 10-20F below normal. - Widespread frost potential Sunday night into Monday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Current Conditions/Today: A 981mb low was located over the ND and MN border this morning slowly moving east. The dry slot associated with this vertically stacked low is slicing through NW WI and curving back across northern MN. Wrap around moisture associated with this low is bringing clouds back in from the west with radar showing weak echoes of rain returning across the Brainerd Lakes region. As the day progresses this low will continue its path east through the Northland as it begins to fill. PWATs have dropped to around 0.75 inches and buoyancy is largely unavailable which will result in intermittent light showers through the day. Additionally, pressure gradient winds out ahead of the low will lead to some gusty winds out of the southwest for portions of the Northland today. Weekend: The aforementioned low pressure system continues to weaken and move out into the Great Lakes Region on Saturday morning. Remnant moisture over the region within the northwest flow aloft will lead to some isolated rain showers through the day. Not nearly as expansive as what will be observed today. Dry air aloft and subsidence moves in for Sunday shutting off our precipitation chances. The overall precipitation totals from Friday and Saturday are expected to be between 0.10-0.25 inches. With the cooler air mass filtering in for the weekend we will see a bit of whiplash in our temperatures. Highs will now be about 10 to 20F below normal with highs in the 40s and 50s. Our overnight lows will also drop in to the 30s leading to concerns of frost. The latest probabilistic guidance suggests a 60-80% of widespread frost early Monday morning. Early Next Week: Another system looks to develop over SD and slide east early next week. Confidence on how much this will actually impact the Northland is still on the low side. The NBM seems to be a bit aggressive with bringing in PoPs as early as Monday and carrying 20-40% chance PoPs through Tuesday. The LREF is a little more pessimistic and aligns better with cluster analysis. A strong high pressure emanating from the Hudson Bay combined with an upper level ridge over the Northland may force this system further to the south. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to persist, steadily decreasing through the evening and overnight. There is about a 10 percent chance that some LIFR conditions could sneak in at times overnight. Gusty southerly winds should calm into this evening and then become northwesterly into Saturday morning, again starting to gust up to 20 knots or more. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Satellite this morning shows a fog bank along the North Shore. This fog bank is expected to dissipate around 10AM. A vertically stacked low will be entering in from the west today leading to different wind directions across the Lake. The strongest winds will be out of the south along the South Shore where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 3PM. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 144>148-150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Britt AVIATION...Levens MARINE...Britt ####018004200#### FXUS64 KOHX 161731 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - A few discrete storms will be possible across areas along and north of I-65 this afternoon. The main weather threat will be large hail and winds. This will be a head of the front and more widespread severe weather. - A dynamic weather system will bring the potential for all modes of severe weather to Middle Tennessee this evening through 2 am Saturday morning. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. - Unsettled weather continues into the weekend, though the severe threat will be low. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The earlier severe watch has been allowed to expire. There were a couple of storms that became perky. The CAMS are showing the possibility of a few discrete storms this afternoon. The main threat with these discrete storms will be wind and hail. The stronger storms will be with the line of storms this evening and into the overnight hours. Please see previous AFD for the details. Highlights...the discrete storms will form into a line most likely entering the northwest forecast area between 8 to 10 pm. Nashville Metro entering around 10 to midnight. Exiting the Cumberland Plateau around 2 to 3 am. This will be a fast moving line. All forms of severe weather will be possible from winds to 70 mph...large hail...and tornadoes. Since the storms will be moving so fast flooding is not a first level concern unless there are some training storms. As mentioned previously...now is the time to make sure preparations are in place. Make sure your friends and family are aware too and have multiple ways of receiving warnings. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Unsettled weather will still be possible next week. There is a marginal risk (1/5) on Sunday as a warm front moves north across middle TN. A low moves out New Mexico/Colorado with a warm front that will meander around the southeast US Sunday through Wednesday. Being spring time...afternoon and evening strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. Thursday will be "best" weather day with the lowest chance for rain. Temperatures for the long term will be highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MVFR cigs are gradually clearing out of the area with spotty showers still on radar. For the remainder of this afternoon, the potential is there for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop. If they do, they will pose a significant threat for large hail and tornadoes. Confidence in isolated storm development and their location is low. Tonight, a line of severe thunderstorms will develop across the northwest and move southeast through the entire mid state region. As the line approaches, low-level wind shear will increase at 2kft between 45-50 kts. For the line, TEMPO groups are in at each terminal for best window of timing. Significant wind gusts of 70+ mph will be possible. Periods of MVFR to IFR vis/cig will be possible upon impact. Winds will shift SSW behind the line with gradual clearing of clouds overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 88 65 85 / 90 0 30 50 Clarksville 66 85 62 82 / 80 0 30 30 Crossville 63 80 59 79 / 90 0 20 40 Columbia 66 87 65 83 / 80 0 40 60 Cookeville 64 82 60 80 / 80 0 20 40 Jamestown 62 82 57 79 / 90 0 10 30 Lawrenceburg 66 86 64 82 / 80 0 40 60 Murfreesboro 66 87 63 83 / 90 0 30 50 Waverly 64 84 63 82 / 80 0 40 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION.....Baggett ####018005075#### FXUS64 KMEG 161731 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight with strong tornadoes, perhaps long tracked, damaging winds and very large hail. - An Enhanced (3 out of 5) to Moderate (4 out of 5) Risk for severe weather is in effect across the northern half of the Mid- South this afternoon into tonight. - Saturday will be mostly dry and warm. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist from Saturday night through the middle of next week with chances for severe storms each day, especially Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The active spring continues across the Mid-South. Currently we are monitoring a mid level jet moving across the region this morning which will serve to enhance lift and weaken the cap in place across the region. Convection has been struggling so far but the latest CAMs indicate robust development over the next few hours. The airmass is very unstable with MLCAPES of 2500-3500 J/kg. Shear is plenty sufficient for organized storms with 0-6km bulk shear values of 60-70 kts. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds but the low level thermodynamics could also support a tornado. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 am roughly north of I-40. This activity will push east in Middle TN by mid morning as the upper support lifts out. The airmass almost immediately recovers as gusty SSW winds continue to advect warm, moist air into the Mid-South. The airmass becomes very unstable by the afternoon with dewpoints in the lower 70s and enormous MLCAPEs in excess of 3500 J/kg. A cold front approaches the region this afternoon as a mid level jet moves into the Mid-MS Valley. This feature will provide the lift to trigger storms along and just ahead of the front late this afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear values of 50-60 kts this afternoon and evening with 0-1km helicity values increasing to well over 200 m2/s2 will support organized storms. These storms will likely be discrete with all hazards expected including strong tornadoes, perhaps long tracked, very large hail and damaging winds. The lift across the Mid-South is not overwhelming strong which will serve to keep the storms at least semi-discrete as they gradually form into a line during the evening. This will keep the strong tornado threat going well into the evening hours especially along and north of the TN/MS border. The higher end severe threat will end by about midnight as storms move into Middle TN. A lower end severe threat will continue across north MS as convection lingers there until about 4 am. The front/boundary along with associated convection will push well south of the region by Saturday. The Mid-South will be in between systems and should squeak out a pretty nice, warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday afternoon. The front/boundary will lift back north into the area starting Saturday night and remain over the region into early next week. This will result in unsettled weather and chances for showers and thunderstorms each day with a low end severe threat. Expect a more organized severe risk by Tuesday as a potent mid level trough pushes across the region along with its associated cold front. Dry and cool weather is expected in the wake of Tuesday's system as a deep upper trough is carved out across the eastern US with NW flow developing across the Mid-South. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Significant impacts to aviation expected throughout the forecast period. Southerly winds with gusts to 25 knots and MVFR CIGs will continue through this afternoon amid a very humid airmass. Some erosion of these clouds could occur, but confidence in this scenario is too low to remove/raise any of these MVFR CIGs at this time. As the afternoon progresses, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Midsouth. Storms are very likely to be severe, reaching the area as early as 22z-23z. Added TEMPO groups to JBR/MKL/MEM to account for this threat which are likely to be amended as today's situation evolves. Signficant hail (> 2 inches in diameter) is possible today with larger thunderstorms. Storms coverage may wane through the night on approach to TUP. Behind today's severe weather, winds will veer to westerly around 10 knots. Skies are expected to be FEW250/SCT and VFR through the end of the period at all sites after storms leave each terminal. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...JAB ####018007569#### FXUS63 KIND 161731 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 131 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong and Severe Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening across Central Indiana. - All Severe modes are in play today, including damaging straight line winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. - Warm and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s. - Cooler and quiet for the weekend, additional precipitation again next week && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 1152 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Outflow from convection over the Ohio Valley has allowed for a few thunderstorms to develop over far southern central Indiana. These are expected to remain subsevere, but very small hail is possible. Otherwise forecast looks on track. Updated info on the upcoming severe event is in the new short term below && .SHORT TERM (This afternoon through Saturday)... Issued at 1152 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Update for upcoming severe event: Key Messages: - Widespread thunderstorms with numerous severe thunderstorms expected between 5PM and 11PM EDT - All severe weather hazards possible, but highest confidence in destructive wind gusts. Most intense gusts could be greater than 80mph - Long track supercells are possible over far southern central IN. Within these supercells, significant tornadoes are possible. Discussion: There is a growing concern for a localized severe weather outbreak over central Indiana late this afternoon and evening. Satellite and radar imagery depict numerous elevated thunderstorms with widespread rain and anvil cirrus over KY currently, of which many of the near term models have struggled to materialize. This could create some uncertainty on overall storm track this evening as even with modest moisture advection it will take some time for this area to recover. The current expectation is for this to result in a CAPE gradient across the southern portions of Indiana, further solidifying the development of robust convection this afternoon and evening. Current observations show most of central Indiana already in the mid to upper 70s with dew points near 60. There will likely be some low level mixing this afternoon that will continue to drop dew points into the upper 50s, especially north of I-70 prior to convective initiation. However further south, greater SW moisture advection and some anvil cirrus should keep low level dew points elevated, with dew points in the mid 60s prior to convective initiation. This will result in quick destabilization with widespread CAPE values greater than 2500 J/kg south of I-70. As the pressure trough pushes eastward, modest lift will be sufficient enough for explosive initiation across IL, of which is expected to reach the Indiana border between 4:30 and 6:00 PM EDT. Further analysis of the low level thermodynamics shows very steep 0- 5km lapse rates, averaging around 8 C/km. The 5km layer winds will generally be around 50kts, increasing this evening to 70-80kts. Given the steep lapse rates, and dry mid level air, dense and volatile cold pools are likely to develop within organized storms. These cold pools will be capable of producing isolated wind gusts greater than 90 MPH, but numerous 60 MPH wind gusts are likely south of the I-70 corridor. This same set up also is favorable for significant hail, although this threat will slowly wane as the convection become more linear this evening. Greatest winds are likely to be south of the I-70 corridor where the LLJ axis is centered, but scattered severe wind gusts are still possible north of I-70. There is also a tornado threat with these storms this afternoon and evening primarily south of I-70. Given residual capping over southern IN from the previously mention thunderstorms over KY this morning, along with a more favorable shear vector, some discrete convection is possible in the beginning of the severe thunderstorm threat (5-8PM). Modeled soundings currently show 0-3km SRH greater that 300 m2/s2 in this same region, of which is plenty sufficient for mesocyclone development and therefore supercells. Although LCLs are likely to be slightly elevated initially, very steep near surface lapse rates along with 0-1km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 should be enough to overcome as the mesocyclones strengthen and become more mature. 7PM onwards the LLJ is also likely to increase further intensifying the low level shear. The main uncertainty with long track supercells will be how quickly organized convection grows upscale and becomes linear. Outside of supercell tornadoes, there is a QLCS tornado threat as these storms develop strong cold pools. If a tornado does happen north of I-70, this will likely be the storm mode. Given the aforementioned likelihood of robust cold pools and RIJ, there will likely be surges within any linear feature. These surges in the presence of strong LL shear this evening will likely be sufficient for a few embedded tornadoes within lines. && .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 An exiting low will move off to the NE at the start of the period. Behind the low, broad riding across the central plains will initially dominate this weekend. Pressure gradients between the system will keep wind gusts to around 25-30 mph during the afternoon on Saturday but will be much calmer for Sunday. A more active pattern is then expected for much of the work week as an upper low, with a couple of short wave, moves through the region. Models are struggling to determine the details at this time as different solutions show varying tracks and strengths to the system. Confidence on temperatures is also low as it will depend on what side of the low central Indiana ends up with. Despite the uncertainties, it does look like there will be a good amount of moisture to work with, so could see a threat for multiple days of heavy rain, and temperatures probably below normal for much of the week. Towards the end of the long term and into the holiday weekend, a ridging pattern may set up to bring from the rain expected next week, but it is still too soon to have much confidence in this yet. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Impacts: - High confidence for evening thunderstorms, possibly severe Discussion: VFR conditions expected through 21Z today. Thunderstorms will push through from west to east after with first impacts at KHUF. Generally, ceilings should remain above 3000 within thunderstorms, but brief reductions to MVFR are possible. Within thunderstorms gusts to 50 or greater knots are possible. Coverage of thunderstorms should diminish quickly after 00Z at KHUF and 02Z at KIND and KBMG. Thunderstorms threat is expected to be completely over by 05Z. Outside of thunderstorms gusty S to SW winds are expected to around 20kts. Winds will shift towards westerly after thunderstorms pass overnight but should remain above 10kts through a majority of the period. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Updike SHORT TERM...Updike LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...Updike ####018008034#### FXUS62 KMLB 161732 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 132 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION, CLIMATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 - Increasingly hot conditions forecast for East Central Florida this weekend and early next week with widespread low to mid 90s and near record high temperatures. - Peak heat indices forecast to reach 100-105 this weekend into early next week. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk will affect individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. - Very low rain chances (10% or less) through next Wednesday. Drought conditions may worsen/expand as a result. && .UPDATE... Issued at 931 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Local radar imagery shows dry weather and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over east central Florida. High pressure (~1018mb) is situated over the eastern Gulf of America and the state of Florida. Temperatures are currently in the mid 70s to low 80s with dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Winds are from the west-southwest at around 5-10mph. Dry and hot conditions are forecast today with high pressure over Florida. Above normal (~5-10F+) to near record highs are forecast this afternoon with ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles indicating temperatures at the 97.5th to maximum percentile for this time of year. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in the mid 90s to 101F degrees are forecast under mostly sunny skies. There is a Moderate HeatRisk for most of east central Florida. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate hydration. It is recommended that those who spend extended periods of time outside this afternoon and early evening to drink plenty of water, wear light-colored clothing, reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade, and take breaks in an air conditioned facility. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Today...A mid-level ridge (591-592dm) over the Gulf will nose NE across the FL peninsula and result in rising heights and increased subsidence. In the low levels, Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain across south central FL, promoting a light offshore wind flow to start the day, turning onshore behind the sea breeze this afternoon. Overall dry, subsident airmass will limit even fair weather cumulus from developing though there will be cirrus/cirrostratus streaming SE. These high clouds will be pretty thin so they should not affect max temps much. Widespread max temps in the mid 90s across interior sections as well as inland portions of the coastal counties. Even coastal Volusia will reach the mid 90s before a delayed sea breeze develops. This will put Daytona Beach in a good position to equal (or even exceed) its record high of 94F (see below). Heat indices will also be on the climb with peak afternoon values in the upper 90s/near 100. Sat-Wed...The deep layer ridging will persist producing hot temperatures and rain chances no higher than 10 percent. Widespread mid 90s will continue over the interior with a few upper 90s possible with potential for one or more record highs to be equaled or even exceeded. Coastal sections will hold in the lower 90s but there is a better chance for a more delayed sea breeze along the Volusia coast where the offshore flow is a bit stronger so Daytona Beach may again approach their record high on Sat (See below). Peak heat indices are forecast to reach 100 to 105 each day inland from the coast. Widespread coverage of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast with Major HeatRisk impacts possible Orlando metro Sun-Tue. It is worth noting HeatRisk takes into account the time of year, so while these temperatures and heat indices are not unusual for our summertime, they are well above normal for mid May and folks are not at all acclimated to it. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Thu...A weak cool front is forecast to bring the next small chance (20-30%) for measurable rainfall on Thu. If timing becomes faster, may need to move these low rain chances to Wed but did not want to show 2 days of rain chances per NBM. Both GFS and ECMWF show a return to onshore flow late next week behind this front which would bring max temps down to more seasonable mid to upper 80s even if not much rainfall materializes. && .MARINE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain nearly stationary across south central Florida, roughly across Lake Okeechobee and northernmost Bahamas, through the weekend and into early next week. This pattern will produce largely favorable boating conditions with a light offshore (W-SW) flow each morning shifting E-SE increasing 10-14 knots near the coast behind the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore through Sat then 1-2 FT all waters Sun-Tue. Chances for precipitation continue to be very low during this period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 104 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Continued mainly VFR. SW/WSW winds 5-10 kts across the interior will become light (5 kts or less) later this evening and overnight. The ECSB will develop early this afternoon moving slowly inland, though it will be delayed along the Volusia coast with minimal inland movement (if any at all), backing winds E/SE and increasing to 10-14 kts. Light/variable morning winds on Sat will transition W/SW and increasing to 5-10 kts during the day (interior). The ECSB develops by early Sat afternoon with slow push inland and a likely delay along the Volusia coast, once again. Persistent overall pattern with conditions dry. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 413 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Soils will continue to dry out next several days with no rain in the forecast and temperatures reaching the low and mid 90s daily. In addition, relatively dry air will produce min RH values of 30-35 percent over the interior today and Saturday but winds will be light (10 mph or less) so conditions will not reach Red Flag criteria. Winds will turn onshore each afternoon behind the sea breeze, although its inland penetration will be slow and onset delayed especially north of the Cape. Min RH values close to the coast south of the Cape will hold near 50 percent. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Record highs the next 4 days (Fri-Mon): DAB 16-May 94 1994 LEE 16-May 95 1985 SFB 16-May 97 1967 MCO 16-May 99 1922 MLB 16-May 95 1995 VRB 16-May 95 1995 FPR 16-May 94 2022 DAB 17-May 95 1963 LEE 17-May 96 1991 SFB 17-May 96 2001 MCO 17-May 97 1915 MLB 17-May 97 1963 VRB 17-May 95 2023 FPR 17-May 95 2008 DAB 18-May 97 1995 LEE 18-May 98 1996 SFB 18-May 95 2024 MCO 18-May 97 1930 MLB 18-May 96 1995 VRB 18-May 96 2024 FPR 18-May 98 1995 DAB 19-May 94 1995 LEE 19-May 94 1991 SFB 19-May 97 1960 MCO 19-May 98 1908 MLB 19-May 95 1995 VRB 19-May 95 1995 FPR 19-May 97 1995 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 95 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 72 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 72 92 73 90 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 71 93 72 92 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 70 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 70 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 73 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 70 92 71 91 / 0 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Fehling AVIATION...Sedlock ####018007514#### FXUS61 KRNK 161733 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 133 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front enters the Ohio Valley today bringing storms to this region, which will start to move into our area this afternoon into tonight. A cold front tracks across Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front for Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1145 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch #261 in effect until 6PM for parts of NW NC, western VA west of the ROA Valley, and southern WV generally south of I-64.. 2) Strong to severe storms associated with a MCS forecast to cross the mountains this afternoon. 3) More storms expected tonight as another MCS moves in from KY. Severe winds/hail possible. Based on latest radar trends and SPC analysis...An arcing band of thunderstorms, Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) has developed into eastern KY. Despite shading from cloud cover east of the system, moderate insolation is underway. Coupled with steep mid- level lapse rates, as sampled in regional 12Z soundings, the plume of large buoyancy over the TN Valley will extend northeastward towards the southern Appalachians. Fast, nearly unidirectional westerly deep-layer shear should favor at least a few supercells ahead of the MCS moving east. A mix of large hail, which could be significant, along with damaging winds seems likely. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued to account for current radar trends which suggest MCS will follow axis of developing CAPE downstream into our western CWA. Watch may need to be extended farther downstream into the piedmont (along VA/NC border) pending evolution of CAPE profiles east of the mountains...daytime heating leading to increasing instability there. Unlike yesterday where capping inversion held for the most part, this same inversion (still evident in the morning RNK sounding) should be penetrable today given the lift from the cold pool associated with the advancing MCS. Plan to send up another balloon from RNK. Special release is scheduled for 18Z. Current MCS is expected to exit the CWA this evening, leaving lull or break between yet another MCS that is expected to develop farther upstream across MO and western KY, moving east again, and crossing the southern Appalachians during the overnight. Models have trouble capturing the timing and intensity of these systems so stay tuned for future updates as these mesoscale features evolve. Highs today will be in the 80s east of the Blue Ridge and in the mid 70s to around 80 west. Lows Friday night remain elevated due to showers/higher RH, with lower to mid 60s Piedmont/foothills to upper 50s mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Windy conditions during weekend 2) A few small chances of precipitation before another front arrives mid-next week With a cold front passing through this weekend, winds will be northwesterly and considerably gusty along and west of the Blue Ridge. Model guidance suggests sustained winds of 10-15 mph and wind gusts of 25-35 mph. Winds at the highest elevations may be a little stronger due to a low level jet. Winds will calm down by Monday afternoon as the Mid-Atlantic will be in a smaller pressure gradient. Dew points and temperatures will take a small hit but are expected to recover by the middle of next week as a warm front approaches from the west. Dew points will still be in the 50s and PWATs will also be at least 1" for the more southern counties. Some 500mb shortwaves are expected to pass through the region prior to the next cold front which could bring some additional precipitation chances for the more western and mountainous counties. Given it is May, this precipitation will likely be in the form of thunderstorms though severe weather is currently unlikely. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Chance of widespread precipitation mid-next week 2) Drier air to move in A surface low is projected to pass through the region mid-next week but specific impacts will be determined on its trajectory. This low is expected to be dragging fronts with it but it's position relative to our area will determine if our area gets a cold front, a warm front, or both. Precipitation is the highest with this system next week, but it is too early to know of any severe weather hazards or how much precipitation will accompany this system. The air mass that follows it will be considerably drier with dew points lowering into the 50s region-wide and PWATs tanking to about 0.25-0.50 inches. The air temperatures also may be a little cooler with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s towards the Piedmont. An upper level low is projected to pass through the northeast portion of CONUS towards the end of next week but model guidance is currently unsure if it will be a cut off low. The upper low looks to move slowly regardless of this and provide multiple vorticity maxima to the Mid-Atlantic. With the dry conditions, however, additional precipitation is unlikely. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Friday... Look for fog to clear out soon, with mainly VFR through the period. A few showers/possible storms may occur this morning along/west of a HSP-BCB-MKJ line. More showers/storms this afternoon but scattered nature. Amendments may be needed. Expect a better chance of showers/storms into this evening and possibly overnight with a more organized cluster of showers/storms moving in. At the moment will have VCSH/VCTS mainly in the west tonight with possible MVFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Activity continues into early Saturday, but should see drying out heading into Saturday afternoon. So expect some periods of sub- VFR during this time. Expect clearing for Saturday night and Sunday. High pressure ridging into the Mid- Atlantic Sunday and into early next week, keeping the weather quiet with likely VFR conditions for all terminals. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 320 AM EDT Friday... The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Blacksburg, VA is continuing to conduct a required, scheduled update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025. While we have taken back over most of the forecast operations, our service back-up office in Raleigh, NC, there may still be issues with delayed or missing products until all services are restored. No impacts to our core services of forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected during this period. The forecast office in Blacksburg, VA will remain open and staffed through the period for public and partner phone calls. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...PM/WP SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...WP EQUIPMENT...WP ####018008318#### FXUS63 KMQT 161733 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 133 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms this afternoon may be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail across Central Upper Michigan. - Dry period expected to begin Sunday and linger through at least Wednesday. High temperatures in this period are expected mostly in the 50s to low 60s each day. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Issued at 133 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 This morning we found ourselves caught within the dry sector of a surface low spinning just upstream in Minnesota. This provided Upper Michigan with clear skies through the morning, with some clouds beginning to push into the west and some cumulus development near noon EDT. Temperatures in this window have warmed into the 70s while mixing has allowed for gusty winds near 30 mph to mix to the surface here and there, alongside drier air aloft. Minimum RH values so far have fallen into the 30s. Current SPC Mesoanalysis pings the region with ~500-1500 j/kg SBCAPE alongside effective bulk shear of 30-50kts. With continued destabilization expected across central Upper Michigan this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms may develop as synoptic support helps provide a window for additional lift. CAMS are in relatively good agreement that thunderstorm initiation could begin between 4- 6pm this afternoon central, then shift eastward into the evening hours. Model soundings show very good mixing into a core of 50-60kts aloft, DCAPE between 500-1000j/kg, and steep mid-level lapse rates that support a window with a damaging wind and large hail risk with any storms that develop. Greatest risk area appears to be the middle third of Upper Michigan. Outside of this risk, strong southerly winds across the area may become more widespread and increase to ~40mph given the increased mixing that's expected this afternoon. However, given that we appear to be underperforming the higher end guidance packages at the moment, I don't yet see a need for a wind headline. Will continue to monitor the higher wind threat for the time being though. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The extended period is quite a bit calmer and cooler, with most of the period dominated by high pressure ridging from northern Ontario/Hudson Bay and low pressure missing us to our south. Thus, expect to see fairly dry conditions once we get through this weekend, but also below normal temperatures too. Expect wrap around moisture from the low to continue light rain showers across the area Saturday, with the convection becoming more focused on the northern tier over the western U.P. by the afternoon hours as upslope enhancement becomes more evident. While the winds are expected to be lighter Saturday than today, we could still see some northwesterly gusts up to 30 mph at times by the afternoon hours as the low moves from the Upper Great Lakes towards the St. Lawrence Seaway. With modest cold air advection cycling into the area Saturday, expect highs to be muted and below normal, only getting into the 50s across the area save for maybe the lower 60s in the far east and south central. A secondary trough behind the low is expected to bring reinforcing moisture and cold air advection to our region Saturday night and Sunday, allowing the upslope showers to continue as some lake enhancement may start to come into play. With some of the model guidance showing negative energy (below 0C) above the sfc, it's possible that we could see the light rain transition to snow, sleet, or even freezing rain; highs Sunday are only projected to get into the lower 40s along the northern tier near Lake Superior. While the NBM does not show this, I think that the greatest concern right now is the freezing rain potential, especially since some model soundings have the sfc temperature right at or below freezing Sunday. Now, with that being said, even if the freezing rain were to occur, I'd expect no more than a glaze to a couple of hundreths of an inch to accumulate (if that) as there won't be much moisture in the air to work with. While this would not cause any concerns for the power grid, it could create some travel concerns for the evening and overnight hours on untreated roadways; will need to monitor this in the future, even though I have low (less than 20%) confidence that this will happen. The current model guidance has high pressure ridging from northern Ontario/Hudson Bay dominating the U.P. the rest of next week, keeping us dry and cooler than normal; expect highs to generally be limited to the 50s until we see a slight climb into the lower to mid 60s by the end of the week. We could see limited to potentially elevated fire weather concerns once again Monday and Tuesday across the interior west as the NBM shows relative humidities dropping down to as low as the mid 20 percents. However, given the recent rainfall, cooler temperatures, and lighter winds expected, leaning towards this being more of a limited fire weather threat at this time. While a strong low pressure looks to develop over the Central Plains and meander eastward with time early next week, with the high pressure ridging overhead, I'm currently thinking that we will stay dry (even though the NBM is still giving us a chance for precipitation). However, should ridging in the lower levels be weaker than what's currently forecasted, there is a chance that we could get the northern flank of the precipitation associated with the low, especially since a mid to upper level low is already expected to be over the Ontario/Quebec border region near the Upper Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 133 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Gusty winds near 30kts will continue this afternoon into the evening hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions give way to thunderstorms developing this afternoon which are expected to effect KSAW. Some strong storms may be able to support strong or damaging winds and hail. Elsewhere, increasing low level moisture is expected to fill in the skies this afternoon and evening. Tonight, expect all sites to fall to MVFR/IFR with potential for rain showers. Low ceilings and rain shower activity is expected to continue Saturday at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 356 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Expect southeast to southerly winds to pick up to 30 knots with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots possible this afternoon over the eastern lake as a LLJ moves into the area. As the sfc low moves over the lake today and tonight, expect the winds to become northwesterly at 20 knots or less behind it. However, as a secondary shortwave brings additional cold air advection into the region Saturday into Sunday, expect the northwesterly winds to pick up to 25 to 30 knots with a few gale force gusts up to 35 knots Saturday through Saturday night over the central and eastern lake. However, as high pressure ridging begins to move back in from the west and north on Sunday, expect the winds to become north to northeasterly at 20 to 25 knots Sunday morning before weakening to 20 knots or less late in the afternoon. A strong low meandering from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley could create northeasterly winds of 20 to 30 knots across the western half of the lake Monday and Tuesday. Some rain showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern half of Lake Superior late this afternoon into this evening, with some of the thunderstorms potentially bringing severe winds of 50+ knots and hail up to a quarter in diameter down to the water's sfc. Stay up to date on the forecast and the latest alerts. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTP LONG TERM...TAP AVIATION...JTP MARINE...TAP ####018004440#### FXUS64 KSJT 161734 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1234 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through early next week. Strong to severe storms will be possible in the afternoons/evenings. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A dryline is forecast to advance east into central portions of West Central Texas this afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak cold front will be located south of the Big Country. Another hot day is forecast across the area, with temperatures above normal. Highs today will be in the mid 90s to near 100 across most of the area. Across the Big Country, highs will be in the low to mid 90s, where slightly cooler temperatures are forecast behind the weak cold front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop south of the cold front and east of the dryline late this afternoon and evening. Most of this activity is forecast to remain east of our area, but a few storms are possible across our far eastern counties. Any storms that develop may become strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. Expect overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Upper level trough axis will settle into the Southern Rockies through early in the week, allowing the dryline to slosh back and forth into West Central Texas each afternoon. Models do show a shortwave in advance of the trough, moving across the Southern Plains on Saturday and likely setting the stage for fairly widespread strong to severe convection across Texas during the afternoon and evening hours. How much of this develops across our are and how much farther east into central and north central Texas is a question, so will lean towards the latest CAMs for a first guess. CAMs show 70+ dewpoints spreading into the area during the morning hours, with the dryline mixing east by noon to near an Abilene to San Angelo line. If this holds, then best chances for storms will be across the Heartland, eastern Big Country, and the Northwest Hill Country and will reflect this idea in the forecast. Will want to keep a close eye of the dryline however. Not uncommon for the dryline to have trouble mixing east with that much moisture in place with storms then developing closer to Abilene and San Angelo. Dryline moves back west Saturday night, with some chance of convection developing overnight along the retreating dryline as well. Otherwise, repeat performance for Sunday afternoon. SPC has already added the northern Big Country into a Slight Risk and would not be surprised if it ends up farther south once the high resolution models can extend out that far and confirm the low level moisture and dryline position. Some chance of storms again Monday afternoon, although dryline looks like it will mix a little farther east and keep the best chances for convection across the far eastern counties. Dry conditions return for Tuesday as a weak cold front moves through the area and shifts the low level moisture well east of the area. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal through Monday, before the front cools readings off closer to normal values for TUesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Light haze will be affecting KJCT through the period as moist air with dew points in the lower 70s advects northward. Otherwise VFR next 24 hours. A weak cold front will bring light Northwest to north winds to KABI and KSJT this afternoon, but winds should weaken further and become variable overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 91 68 96 69 / 0 0 20 20 San Angelo 97 67 98 69 / 0 0 20 10 Junction 98 70 99 68 / 10 10 40 10 Brownwood 94 68 96 68 / 10 10 40 20 Sweetwater 93 67 95 69 / 0 0 10 10 Ozona 96 70 96 71 / 0 0 20 10 Brady 97 71 97 70 / 10 10 40 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...04