####018007838#### FXUS61 KRLX 161814 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 214 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rounds of strong to severe storms expected today through tonight. Cold front crosses Saturday. Quieter to finish the weekend, then unsettled pattern returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 214 PM Friday... Put up a wind advisory across the higher elevations of Randolph and Pocahontas from 10 AM Saturday until 2 AM Sunday. Models are showing fairly strong post-frontal flow that will move in early Saturday morning. Gusts between 45 and 50 MPH are possible across the higher elevation zones. As of 1235 PM Friday... Currently have some thunderstorms to our southwest in eastern KY that are moving into the severe storm/flash flood watch area. There is a fairly sturdy (-50 to -75 CINH) mixed-layer cap that has formed over the lowlands which is showing some signs of disrupting these storms as they surge deeper into our forecast area. Damaging winds, hail, and the chance for an isolated tornado are the hazards of concern. Despite the cap, instability and lapse rates are on the stronger side with SBCAPE between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg. Effective shear is very strong with values between 50-65 kts, which will lead to some rotating storms this afternoon. Convective models are keeping the trend of training these storms over the southern coalfields/mountains, so flash flooding concerns are elevated through the afternoon, hence the flash flood watch. 1-hr FFG is around an inch to an inch and a half in spots with 3-hr FFG only slightly higher. HREF/HRRR are still in agreement with bringing in a well developed, stronger line of storms that will move in from the west between 7 PM and 9 PM, subsequently moving across the forecast area west to east. The greatest wind threat will reside in this system where prob wind statistics show 60 - 70 MPH gusts could be possible if this line if it manifests as the CAMs are suggesting. Further flash flood concerns will linger into the night with models showing the southern, upshear portion of the line moving over the counties currently outlooked with the flash flood watch, which will be receiving repeated rounds of heavy rainfall this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 AM Friday... The cold front bringing the potential for severe weather in the near term will not actually push through the area until Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. While the severe and heavy rain threats should be east of the area by dawn Saturday, showers and even thunderstorms are still possible in and near the mountains Saturday morning, and up north in wrap around moisture closer to the mid/upper-level low crossing the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon. Gradient flow and good mixing Saturday will result in strong winds, with peak gusts as high as 30 to 35 mph across the lowlands, and 40 to 45 mph across the highest ridges, where a wind advisory may be needed if confidence increases in higher gusts. These strong winds will diminish Saturday night. Dry weather is then expected Saturday night through Sunday night, as drier air arrives from the northwest Saturday and Saturday night, and then surface ridging noses in from the northwest Sunday and Sunday night. Central guidance reflects modest cooling over the weekend, which brings temperatures down to near normal for Sunday and Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 415 AM Friday... Unsettled weather appears to be on tap again for the next work week, as low pressure rumbles across the area. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms as early as midday and afternoon Monday, if some of the overnight warm advection convection upstream Sunday night can survive or refire. After a dry Monday night as ridging briefly re-establishes, showers and thunderstorms are likely late Tuesday through Wednesday, as a southern stream low pressure system rumbles across the area beneath a rex block. How quickly the weather then dries out behind the system late next week depends upon whether it can come out from beneath the rex block by becoming absorbed by a northern stream short wave trough east of the block. However, even that scenario results in a mid/upper- level low that may take the remainder of the work week to lumber far enough east to finally take precipitation out of the area. Temperatures hover close to normal ahead of the system early in the work week, before slipping below normal for the latter portion of the work week, as the system lumbers across. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 211 PM Friday... Showers and thunderstorms will be commonplace this afternoon. Some will likely be strong to severe containing damaging winds, hail, heavy rain, and the chance for an isolated tornado or two. MVFR and IFR conditions should be expected through the afternoon as a result. Winds will be breezy and gusty through the afternoon as well, even if there are no thunderstorms in the vicinity of a terminal. Gusts between 25 and 35 knots are possible. Models show a slight break in activity between ~23z and ~02z where VFR ceilings and vsbys may slide in ahead of a stronger storm complex slated to move in from the west between ~02z and ~06z. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concern with this line of storms. Gusts above 40 knots are possible with this system when it moves through. IFR conditions or lower will likely accompany these storms. Activity will taper off after ~08z tonight as the storm complex exits to the east, but some lingering showers, MVFR/IFR ceilings, and gusty winds will likely reside across portions of the area going into Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H L H M H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H M H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by late Tuesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>007-013>015- 024>026-033-034-515>518. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ523-526. OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ086-087. KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GW/LTC NEAR TERM...LTC SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...LTC ####018003908#### FXUS63 KIWX 161815 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 215 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a chance for storms this evening, mainly between 7pm and 10pm EDT. A few thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds the primary threat, mainly south of US 24. - Cooler and breezy on Saturday. - Periodic rain chances return next week, mainly Tuesday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A shortwave, 70-80 kt 500 mb jet, and an attendant cold front track through this evening into the early overnight through the base of an Upper Midwest upper low. The associated shot of deeper ascent and some low level moisture return with a developing low level jet should bring a period of scattered showers/storms to most of the area this evening. Still cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms, mainly south of US 24, as shear profiles are favorable for organized convection. Instability is the limiting factor however with MLCIN and dry air to overcome, though incoming height falls/cooling aloft, and some last minute low level theta-e advection, should eventually allow updrafts to break the cap with MLCAPE potentially surging into the 1000-1500 j/kg range (highest southeast of US 24). High DCAPE with steep 0-3km lapse rates favor a downburst wind threat if any multicell clusters/lines emerge. Overall confidence in anything more than isolated strong to severe cells is low, with greater probs for severe storms off to the south near the primary moisture/instability axis. Cold advection on the southern fringes of a stacked low moving east through the Great Lakes region will provide significantly cooler and breezy conditions post-frontal later tonight into Saturday. Cyclonic flow around the low will also allow stratocu to build in for a time, especially north of US 30 where non zero chances for a rogue sprinkle/shower will exist. Sunday is definitely the preferred weekend day weather-wise as high pressure nudges in from the north with sunshine, lighter winds and slightly warmer temps. Next week continues to look wet at times as an upper low cuts off and slowly tracks east through the Central US and Great Lakes. The greatest chances for rain are the Tuesday through Thursday periods, with temperatures generally below average for mid-late May. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 An upper level speed max lifting across downstream portion of upper trough and an accompanying upper level short wave will help to advect some increased low level moisture northward late this afternoon/early this evening. Sfc dew points have mixed out nicely early this afternoon into the upper 40s to lower 50s. The challenging part of this convective forecast is trying to assess extent of moisture return in advance of this short wave tonight and how much destabilization can occur. Strengthening low/mid level wind fields and initial dry profiles do suggest potential of some strong winds with any storms (or showers). Have not made substantial changes to previous timing of main potential threat in the 00Z-03Z window for thunder. Otherwise, southerly gusts to 20 to 25 knots will be maintained in advance of the associated cold front this evening, with post-frontal west winds gusting to 30 to 35 knots by Saturday afternoon. Conditions should remain primarily VFR this period with the exception of any stronger showers and storms. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Marsili ####018004917#### FXUS65 KPIH 161816 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 1216 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms today across northern parts of the area. - Another potent low pressure system expected for the weekend bringing more rain/storms and cold temperatures Sunday after milder temperatures on Saturday. - Gradual improvement expected early next week with a warmup likely mid/late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 116 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Early morning satellite imagery shows cloud cover gradually increasing from west to east over the region as a weak shortwave over Oregon continues to move in our direction. This feature doesn't appear to be anything too impactful but will bring increased clouds throughout the day and help spark another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms, especially across the central mountains and east towards the Island Park region. Does appear that at least so isolated PoPs will be possible in areas to the south, the interstate corridors, but it looks to be more hit-or- miss in those locations. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side of normal once again with widespread highs in the 50s, with a few spots briefly topping the 60 degree mark this afternoon. Precip tapers off later in the evening as the shortwave moves away and upper-flow becomes more zonal, albeit briefly. Things become active, yet again, after daybreak Saturday as a strong U/L trough moves into the Pacific NW and an associated area of low pressure brings cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation to the region once again. Strong S/SW flow ahead of the trough will allow temps to briefly warm into the mid and upper 60s across the lower valleys on Saturday before the onset of clouds and precip once again send temperatures downward. By Saturday evening, expecting widespread showers and thunderstorms regionwide. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 116 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 As the second half of the weekend begins, upper level trough is well entrenched over our area with a closed upper level low moving overhead by the end of the day. With H5 heights running well below normal, daytime highs will struggle to get out of the 40s with continued precip expected throughout the day. Colder temps should limit our instability which will keep rain the predominant threat throughout the day but we could see a thunderstorm or two during the afternoon/evening timeframe. Things begin to improve on Monday as the low continues to move south and east of the region although the first half of the day will likely still feature clouds and precipitation. By late in the day, we should see precip coming to an end with skies starting to clear out. Tuesday will be when things return to a quieter regime with temps right around their climatological norms with mostly clear skies. Higher terrain areas around the Continental Divide could see some diurnally driven showers/storms but much of the area should remain dry. H5 heights continue to slowly rise over the area as weak ridging continues into Wednesday allowing temps to continue on their upward trajectory. Some models now show a fast moving, but potent, shortwave moving across the area on Thursday which would suggest the potential for a windy day across the area but some ensemble clusters still show ridging in place so there appears to be some uncertainty at this time period of the forecast. For now, won't buy too much into it and see how things transpire over the days ahead. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Satellite and radar imagery shows weak shortwave feature moving through East Idaho today. Winds are breezy throughout the Snake Plain, strongest at PIH with gusts approaching 30kts. Expect that activity to decrease around sunset. Radar shows a few weak echoes late this morning, but so far only SUN has been able to record any precipitation. Tentatively removed VCSH from PIH and IDA as confidence was lower that any precipitation would reach the ground. Better chances for TSRA occurring at DIJ this afternoon, and left PROB30 in place. Should be a break in the potential precipitation late this afternoon through mid-evening for all terminals, followed by VFR cigs overnight. Next shortwave drives showers into the region during the day Saturday. Added PROB30 TSRA for SUN after 18Z, but should be seeing more widespread SHRA all sites by late morning. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McKaughan LONG TERM...McKaughan AVIATION...DMH ####018010570#### FXUS62 KRAH 161818 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 215 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances moving atop an upper level ridge building across the SE US will support mainly diurnal showers and storms and unseasonably hot temperatures to end the work week. A series of cold fronts will move through the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 1130 AM Friday... The previous forecast remains in good shape, only adjusting PoPs slightly along the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain as newer Hi- Res model data comes in. Comparing the 06z to the 12z NCAR HRR Neural Network output model show the probabilities for severe winds and hail this afternoon and overnight have shifted slightly northward. The general Hi-Res model guidance still has a large spread for both rounds this afternoon and overnight. Expecting the MCSs over the Kentucky region this morning to cross the Appalachian Mountains and and keep its energy and momentum along the NC/VA border this afternoon. With all the said, I expect the Slight Risk in VA to be expanded south into portion of Northern NC with SPCs morning update. * There remains a conditional risk for Strong/Severe Storms across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain this afternoon/early evening PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Overview: Strong upper level ridge centered over the Eastern US will move offshore late in the day. A shortwave trough associated with the upper cyclone moving into the Great Lakes will approach from the west late tonight/early Saturday. Today: Model spread remains high, and forecast confidence regarding storm potential this afternoon and evening continues to be low. The upper ridge could prove quite formidable again today. The exception may be across northern portions of the forecast area where shortwave vort disturbances spilling atop the ridge could support a cluster or two of very strong and severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Strong diurnal heating(afternoon highs upper 80s to lower 90s) within the seasonably moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates(7.5-8 deg C/km)associated with the EML lingering over the mid south and SE US will create a strongly unstable environment with MLCAPE expected to peak between 2000-3000 J/kg. Shear is also quite impressive with 0-3km shear forecast to strengthen to 35-40 kts during the afternoon and evening. If storms do make it into the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain, the robust instability and strong shear could allow for intense persistent updrafts and supercells to track east across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain counties. Large +2" hail and potentially destructive straight-line winds up to 75 mph. An isolated tornado is also possible. Alternatively, the ridge could shield central NC from the strong deep convection, diverting the severe threat north of the area, leaving it hot with considerable mid and high clouds across the area. So as you can see we are dealing with a very conditional threat for severe storms today. Stay vigilant and monitor the latest weather conditions. Tonight: Any convection should dissipate or move east of the area before midnight. The approach of the upper trough from the west could support some weakening convection moving into the western Piedmont towards sunrise. Otherwise, mostly dry overnight with record warmth expected(see climate section below). Lows 70 to 75. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 AM Friday... * Moderate instability and strong wly mid-level flow and shear profiles will support a conditional risk of severe storms once again Sat, especially from the ern Sandhills through the Coastal Plain during the afternoon, based on lower predictability, mesoscale influences from a decaying QLCS and outflow that will likely be moving across the NC Piedmont at the start of the period. A mid/upr-level cyclone will progress across the lwr Great Lakes and to nrn NY and VT by 12Z Sun. A significant shortwave perturbation will slightly precede the cyclone and partially phase with an energetic srn stream while moving across and offshore the Middle Atlantic through Sat. A band of convectively-enhanced vorticity, probably extending from wrn portions of the srn Middle Atlantic and Carolinas swwd into the TN Valley, and related to the aforementioned decaying QLCS there during the morning, will move ewd and across the Carolinas through early-mid afternoon. Related to the influence of each, mostly weak mid-level height falls will result over cntl NC throughout the period but maximize modestly at 20-40 meters around 18Z. An extensive and pristine EML plume will initially be in place across much of the Southeast but will migrate ewd and offshore ahead of the trough/cyclone, and also become contaminated by multiple rounds of deep convection through its wrn periphery, including into the TN Valley and wrn Carolinas, by the start of the period. At the surface, some degree of aggregate outflow will likely be in the process of moving across cntl NC, probably increasingly-ahead of decaying, parent convection. Where it slows and stalls, and how strong it remains when it does so, will likely have ramifications on subsequent convective initiation as convective temperatures are reached by early-mid afternoon. At this time, the greatest clustering from CAM guidance on its probable location would favor the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. A lee trough and progressively drier wswly flow to its west will also develop and move ewd across the Piedmont during the afternoon-evening, followed by a weak cold frontal passage Sat night While mesoscale uncertainties yield lower than average forecast confidence on sensible weather specifics, the most likely scenario related to the pattern described above will be for a band of generally weakening convection and overcast, and outflow with strong wind gusts up to 30-35 kts, to be in the process of moving across w- cntl NC early in the day. Associated stabilizing influence during the morning would then diminish as lingering precipitation and clouds dissipate by early afternoon, with those influences perhaps never reaching the ern Sandhills and Coastal Plain, where diurnal heating would be maximized beneath still relatively pristine EML. It will be there, where the aforementioned outflow boundary may have also surged and stalled, and where widely scattered storms would be most likely to develop. Shear profiles would favor a supercellular mode with attendant risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. It should otherwise be unseasonably hot again, with highs in the upr 80s-lwr 90s. While Sat night will feature clearing initially, high-level moisture in wly flow will probably result in a return of cirrostratus ceilings Sun morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 PM Friday... * Largely unsettled weather is expected for the beginning of the extended period, until a cold front moves through the region Wednesday or Thursday. * Temperatures will remain above average until Wednesday, with below average temperatures expected Thursday and Friday. Sunday and Monday, a front is expected to be quasi-stationary to our south. These days are expected to be mostly dry, however afternoon showers may develop in the south depending on how far north the front stalls. Otherwise, temperatures should be around 5 degrees above average, with maximum temperatures on both days in the low 80s in the north, to the upper 80s, maybe reaching low 90s in the south. Sunday and Monday night should also have lows in the 60s. Rain chances increase again Tuesday afternoon as low pressure associated with the previously stalled front progresses north of the region through the mid Atlantic. There is large model spread on the strength, timing, and location of this system, however models are generally showing a warm front moving north through the region on Tuesday, increasing rain chances, and a cold front moving through the region Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning. Thus, there are rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday, which could potentially linger into Thursday. The best chance for widespread rain currently looks to be Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures should fall behind the front, leaving maximum temperatures in the 70s on Thursday. High pressure should build in behind the cold fropa, leaving Friday dry and keeping maximum temperatures in the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM Friday... Forecast confidence is lower than normal wrt to storm potential this afternoon and evening. Upper level ridge arching over the Mid-Atlantic region supporting an increase in cloud coverage and isolated storms this afternoon and evening. A few isolated severe storms could bring flight restrictions to any of the northern TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with these storms so along with TSRA in the TAF, added gusts up to 45kts in the PROB30 groups. As the low level jet moves through after the initial round of expected storms, LLWS will be the next aviation hazard late overnight into early Saturday morning. As the upper level trough moves offshore, a cold front will bring another round of flight restrictions Saturday morning. The models have been back and forth on whether or not the line of storms makes its to the region, therefore around line of PROB30s for all TAF sites between 09z and 13z for a chance of thunderstorms with flight restrictions. Outlook: Chances for diurnal isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through much of the period. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially in areas that received significant rainfall the previous day. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CA/CBL SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...Helock AVIATION...CA/CBL