####018009182#### FXUS61 KGYX 180010 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 810 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure approaches the region tonight bringing the threat for strong to severe storms through this evening, mainly across New Hampshire. Low pressure lingers over the area Sunday into Monday bringing continued chances for showers. High pressure briefly builds in from the north Tuesday and Wednesday. Another slow moving low pressure system approaches Thursday and will linger near the Northeast into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 800 PM Update... Have allowed the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to expire. Otherwise, no notable changes at this hour. Previously... 715 PM Update... A weakening line of thunderstorms is pushing eastward across central NH. This line will continue to weaken as it approaches western ME where a marine airmass is locked in place. The greatest lingering potential for perhaps a gusty storm through the remainder of this evening will be across southern NH where temperatures are still into the lower 70s. Any storms will produce locally heavy rainfall, which could result in some minor flooding. Will allow the Severe Thunderstorm Watch remain in place through its expiration at 8PM. Previously... Based on surface observations, the warm front appears to be draped roughly from Lebanon, NH to near Concord, NH as temperatures along and to the south have reached 70s. The warm front may lift a bit farther to the north and east over the next few hours, and this area as well as farther north along the CT River will be the regions to watch for strong to severe storms going into this afternoon and evening. SPC Mesoanalysis indicates upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE over southwest NH and not quite as farther north along the CT River, although Coos county is clearing out per latest visible satellite. As the better forcing approaches the area, this environment will be supportive of large hail in excessive of 1" in diameter and damaging winds gusts. There is also enough 0-1km SRH to support a brief tornado in discrete cells. The 0-3km shear vector is also in excessive of 30 kt, and this could also aid in a brief tornado within line segments where it becomes more perpendicular to the line. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8 PM for the Grafton, Sullivan, and Cheshire counties. Based on near-term trends the watch may need to be extended into Coos county. There is some uncertainty in how far east the severe risk extends but does appear to be marginally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms across central and eastern NH (so it's possible an eastward expansion to the watch may be needed). The environment then becomes much less favorable toward the Seacoast and into ME where the marine layer is well established, but elevated CAPE could support thunder and maybe even small hail. Lastly, will have to watch for Flash Flooding, and please refer to the hydrology section below. The threat for strong to damaging wind gusts diminishes this evening as surface-based CAPE wanes with the loss of daytime heating. However, forecast soundings show pretty steep lapse rates aloft, which may prolong a threat for hail a little longer, and at the very least sufficient enough for thunderstorms. This is primarily through this evening across NH and into SW ME, and again the convection should then encounter a less favorable environment as it progresses eastward farther into ME through the late evening or early overnight hours, although it's possible there could still be small hail and some rumbles of thunder. Fog is again likely tonight, especially along the Maine coast and interior, but will also be possible over areas that see rainfall today. Additional showers may also develop overnight as the upper low continues to approach. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... What's left of the fog should mostly clear out by mid-morning on Sunday except could linger near the Midcoast a little longer. Otherwise, the upper low will cross overhead during the day with showers likely across northern areas with lower chances (30-50%) with southward extent. Steepening lapse rates as temperatures aloft cool do also support enough instability for heavy downpours and maybe a couple of storms. Highs will be mostly in the 60s. For Sunday night, waves of energy rotating around the upper low will continue a chance of showers with the higher chances again favoring the mountains and northern areas where low-level upslope flow will also be present. Northwest winds will also increase overnight, especially across NH where gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper low crossing the region this weekend will slowly exit into the western Atlantic Monday and Tuesday. As this system exits another upper low approaches from the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. This upper low will cross the region Friday through the holiday weekend. Chances for rain will be on the downward trend Monday into Tuesday before increasing Wednesday with the highest chance for widespread soaking rainfall occuring Thursday into Friday. As the upper low crosses overhead next weekend there will remain chances for showers, while no one day looks to be a washout. The unsettled pattern will lead to temperatures averaging below normal through the period. Global models are in good agreement that a vertically stacked low pressure system will be over Nova Scotia by Monday morning with drying northwest flow over developing the forecast area. Showers will remain likely across the mountains and north through the day while areas south of the mountains will see lower chances and breaks of sunshine. Highs will range from the upper 40s north to the mid 60s across the south. Tuesday looks to be mostly dry outside of the mountains with highs mainly in the 50s to low 60s. High pressure tries to build in from the north late Tuesday into Wednesday for a cooling trend and an extension of mostly dry conditions. Steady east to northeast winds will keep highs Wednesday in the low to mid 50s. As the next upper low approaches from the Great Lakes a surface low will develop over the Mid Atlantic Wednesday night. Models diverge on the track of this low with some solutions taking the bulk of the precipitation south of the area and others track the system into the Gulf of Maine Thursday bringing a widespread soaking rainfall. Have mainly stuck with the NBM PoPs that bring 70-80 percent chances of rain Thursday with PoPs diminishing to 40-50 percent Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...TEMPO IFR to MVFR restrictions possible with showers and storms into this evening and tonight especially over NH with lesser chances for storms going into ME. However, the ME terminals are more likely to see IFR to LIFR restrictions from fog and low stratus. Expect fog to clear out Sunday morning with mostly VFR outside of showers during the day Sunday. However, LEB and HIE could see more persistent MVFR ceilings through Sunday night. Long Term...VFR likely prevails south of the mountains Monday, while upslope clouds and showers brings restrictions to KHIE. VFR likely prevails across all TAF sites Tuesday into Wednesday. Low pressure approaches Wednesday night bringing the threat for restrictions Thursday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Southeast winds will persist through this evening and will then become more west to southwest overnight into Sunday morning as a weak low pressure crosses the waters. Fog is expected to linger through tonight, but visibilities are expected to improve from west to east through the day Sunday as the W/SW flow increases but remaining below SCA levels. As the low pressure becomes centered near the Bay of Fundy Sunday evening Sunday night, NW winds may increase enough to where an SCA will be needed. Long Term...Offshore winds will prevail Monday and Tuesday with gusts generally below 25 kts. High pressure builds in from the north Tuesday night and Wednesday shifting winds out of the northeast and then east. Low pressure approaching from the Mid Atlantic Thursday will bring enhanced easterly flow with winds and seas reaching SCA criteria. && .HYDROLOGY... Multiple rounds of showers and storms are likely through this evening and could pose another threat of flash flooding. The threat is highest from the foothills and points north on Saturday where WPC has highlighted a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Tubbs SHORT TERM...Combs LONG TERM...Schroeter ####018006489#### FXUS63 KMQT 180010 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 810 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain or drizzle possible into Sunday morning, mainly over the northern half of the U.P. - Dry period expected to begin Monday and linger through at least Wednesday. High temperatures in this period are expected mostly in near or in the 50s to low 60s each day. - Some frost is possible in the interior west next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Vertically stacked low is currently positioned over Lake Huron per RAP analysis and GOES water vapor imagery. A few waves are noted rotating around the circulation, which has supported mostly cloudy skies over the region under northwesterly flow. Just upstream, a weak frontal boundary is noted with post frontal temperatures ~10 degrees colder than the 50s observed across Upper Michigan. Spotty showers have also been observed this morning, mainly across the east, but activity has waned through the day. For the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, the upstream cold front will push east, helping to kick the surface low east as well. Pressure rises in the wake of the front will result in increasing northeast winds, particularly in the Keweenaw and by Lake Superior. Suspect ~30mph winds will be common in these spots, with upwards of 35-40mph being possible north of Houghton. Elsewhere, expecting near 20 mph winds. The occasional shower or pocket of drizzle is also expected given the continued moist cyclonic and upslope flow into and over the northern half of the forecast area. Some additional heating may also occur over the interior portions of central and east, but overall temperatures look to have peaked today and should begin to slowly fall west to east. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Upper level low over southern Ontario tonight will continue to exit east while mid-level ridging shifts east through middle America. At the surface, trough/frontal feature pressing into our forecast area will shift east Sunday morning as it's parent surface low pushes into New England and surface ridging presses. This will work to diminish shower activity over the region Sunday in the north as the effects of the ridging over the region become more dominant. Some snow may mix in with precip before it ends over the higher terrain, but accumulations are not expected. Dry conditions look to hold fast over the area into at least the middle of next week, at which point a shortwave dropping southeast to the east of Lake Superior Monday night stalls, then begins to slowly phase with an upper level low pressing eastward through the mid-Mississippi River Valley. By Wednesday night/Thursday, the resultant upper level low may provide enough synoptic support for another round of rain. Confidence continues to be low though given the uncertainty in where these features and their surface reflections line up. Overall, temperatures will be below normal for this time of year. Highs Sunday will include mid to upper 30s in the north-central, near Lake Superior, and Copper Country and 40s elsewhere. We should warm afterwards back into 40s by Lake Superior and 50s to low 60s for most of the coming week. For overnight lows, 30s will mostly rule save for high 20s Sunday night and possible Monday night across the interior west half. This may yield some frost. The effect of the dry air, temperatures, and daytime mixing next Monday-Wednesday should be enough to support afternoon RH values falling into the 30s and 20s, potentially into the teens, in interior locations while gusty northeasterly winds near 20 mph mix down to the surface. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 809 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 MVFR/IFR conditions are expected through most of the 0Z TAF period as abundant low level moisture under cool N flow lingers in the wake of the low pressure system. A break from the dz/-shra is expected tonight as the low continues to depart to the E. A brief period of LIFR is anticipated Sun morning with some additional dz/-shra. With high pressure moving to the N, drying and improvement is expected late on Sun. Otherwise, N gusts up to 20-25 kts at CMX/SAW gradually relax overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 124 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Surface low spinning over the area with a cold front pressing in from the west will yield mostly northwest winds this afternoon and evening, increasing to near or to low end gale strength. Overall, gale potential looks to be confined between the east end of Isle Royale to the tip of the Keweenaw, but some gales could be observed elsewhere. Confidence in this is low (<25% chance), so the inherited gale warning was left as is. After the front passes tonight, northerly winds will gradually fall into Sunday, reaching <20kts lake-wide by Sunday afternoon. As a high shifts to near Hudson Bay afterwards, northeast winds will predominately prevail early next week. Increases in pressure gradient forces thanks to the high to the northeast and a low spinning to the south, coupled with daytime heating in Minnesota/Wisconsin will result in stronger northeast winds developing across the west half, pressing down into the Duluth Harbor Monday and Tuesday. Most deterministic guidance peaks winds near 30kts, but the latest EC ensemble suggests 10-60% for gales (increasing east to west down to the harbor) Monday and to near 80% for Tuesday. Similar probabilities are noted in the NBM. The stronger winds may yield seas building to 8ft or higher. As a low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes tries to phase with the lower levels of the low moving from the Central Plains to the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday, expect northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots to continue over the lake Tuesday night into Wednesday, before the winds turn more northerly later Wednesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JTP LONG TERM...JTP AVIATION...Jablonski MARINE...JTP ####018006497#### FXUS62 KMHX 180011 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 811 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through the area this evening. High pressure then builds in late in the weekend and into early next week. Another frontal boundary then impacts the area mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 7:30 PM Saturday...Any precip this evening is looking less and less likely. Lowered PoPs this evening but did keep slt chance near the coast for the next few hours as some guidance continues to show an isolated storm popping up ahead of the front. The rest of the forecast is in good shape. Previous discussion...Latest visible satellite imagery shows lingering cloud cover near the coast with mostly sunny skies across the rest of the CWA. Guidance has trended slightly later with potential convective initiation (00Z or later), but confidence remains low on whether or not anything will develop at all. 18Z hi-res guidance continues to show isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the coast and north of Highway 264, but with subsidence in the low and mid-levels and the lingering cloud cover along the coast, CIN may be too great to overcome. IF convection is able to develop, the primary concern would be an isolated damaging wind gust, but a lack of forcing is making convective development look meager at best. After midnight, a dry cold front will pass and veer winds to the west. Low temperatures will be roughly 5-10 degrees cooler than last night with the coastal plain dropping to the mid- to upper-60s and the coast reaching the low-70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... As of 3:30 PM Saturday... The upper low will work its way off the northeast coast with shortwave ridging building in from the west locally. This will lead to downsloping flow aloft, pumping warm, dry air into the region. This resultant drop in humidity will be the most notable change in sensible weather with a roughly 10 degree drop in dews decreasing RHs into the 30-40% range across the coastal plain. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-80s inland and low-80s along the coast. A slight chance of showers is possible in the late afternoon, mainly along the Highway 264 corridor, but with a lack of forcing at the surface and shortwave ridging building in aloft, it wouldn't be surprising for the forecast to trend completely dry with future updates. KEY MESSAGES - Quiet weather expected tonight A cold front will push east through ENC this evening, with drier and slightly cooler air moving in behind it. This sets the stage for lows ending up about 10 degrees cooler tonight than last night. With a drier and more stable airmass moving in, no thunderstorms are expected once the front clears the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 0500 Saturday...MOSTLY quiet end of the weekend with unsettled pattern beginning to unfold middle of upcoming week. Up to Midweek...The next low to impact the area stems from digging trough aloft over central CONUS ultimately leading to stout vertically stacked low traversing the Ohio River Valley and approaching the NECONUS coast early week. Shortwave embedded in the flow aloft leads to cyclogenesis along the meandering boundary. This low will work up the SC and eventually NC coast Tuesday through Wednesday, upping cloudiness and rain chances again. Late week...High pressure builds in at the SFC from the W while low departs to the NE. Trough aloft lingers over NECONUS through the end of the week preventing a completely dry forecast until stronger ridging spills Eward toward the end of the longterm period. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday/... As of 8 PM Saturday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the period with southwesterly winds becoming westerly late tonight as a cold front passes. Could see gusts up to 20 kt possible late Sunday morning and afternoon. Light mixing overnight with lowering post frontal dewpoints will prevent fog development. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/... As of 0430 AM Saturday...A front will meander across the region until mid week. Expecting mostly VFR flight cats through MON, though low end chance of showers SUN may bring subVFR. Better chances of subVFR flight cats Tues and Wed as wave of low pressure traveling along the front traverses the Carolinas. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 4:45 PM Saturday...A pinched gradient is causing gusty southwesterly winds of 15-25 kt and 3-5 ft seas, which is expected to build to 5-6 ft south of Oregon Inlet this evening. Conditions will start to improve late tonight with seas dropping below 6 ft and gusts decreasing to 15-20 kt as they veer to the west with the passing of a cold front. North of Cape Hatteras, winds will remain out of the west while farther to the south, winds will back to the southwest by mid-morning. Thunderstorm chances continue to decrease but cannot rule out an isolated storm this evening. LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/... As of 0445 Friday... Late weekend through early week...Tonight's front stalls to the S of the FA where it will meander back N and S through early week. Werly winds 10-15kt early SUN become SWerly 15-20kt in afternoon as front lifts back Nward. Winds become Nerly late Sun into early Mon as front sinks back Sward allowing weak high pressure to briefly build in. NEerly winds Tuesday continuing to veer to become Serly WED ahead of the next approaching low. Conditions deteriorate as low approaches with SCA conditions possible and increase in shower/tstorm chances. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ195- 196-199-204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK/OJC SHORT TERM...OJC LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...SK/CEB/OJC MARINE...SK/CEB/OJC CLIMATE...MHX ####018007755#### FXUS61 KALY 180014 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 814 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will diminish prior to midnight, as a cold front moves across the region. Brisk and cool conditions will close the weekend with additional showers due to an upper level disturbance and low pressure moving northeast of Maine. Drier and breezy conditions will return on Monday, as sunshine will mix with clouds and temperatures will still run below normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Update as of 812 pm EDT...The Severe Thunderstorm Watch (#277) was canceled for southern VT shortly before 8 pm. The strong to severe thunderstorms have moved east of southern VT and the Berkshires. A few thunderstorms ahead of the cold front has developed over over the mid Hudson Valley and may move into the Taconics, Berkshires and NW CT the next couple of hours, where waning instability exists. These storms are not expected to be severe. Cold advection will continue across the region tonight with temps falling into the 50s and 60s around midnight (some upper 40s for the Adirondack Park). The showers will diminish around midnight. Some lake enhanced showers may develop over the western Dacks in the early to mid morning ahead of the upper low and a sfc trough. It will be breezy, less humid and cooler overnight. Please see our local storms reports for all the wind damage and large hail that occurred. Previous near term... The convection will decrease between 9 pm and midnight with scattered showers continuing before some drier air filters in. The cold advection should kick in the wake of the front after midnight. Temps will fall into the 50-55F range in the valleys and 40s to around 50F over the higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The 500 hPa closed low moves over eastern NY and New England tomorrow morning. Low pressure forms near Maine and moves slowly northeast. A secondary cold front or sfc trough moves across the region and it becomes showery and continues to be cool. The cyclonic vorticity advection with the upper level low in the cyclonic flow will produce scattered to numerous showers. The rainfall amounts should be mainly light in the few hundredths to two tenths of an inch range. It will be brisk and cool with max temps about 10 degrees below normal with upper 50s to mid 60s/upper 60s in the valleys and upper 40s to mid 50s over higher terrain. The west to northwest winds will be 10 to 20 mph with some gusts 25-35 mph. Residual west/northwest upslope and lake effect/lake enhanced showers will end Sunday night over the western Dacks and southern Greens. Northwest flow will persist aloft with high pressure trying to build southeast from Hudson Bay. Some 30s will be possible over the Adirondack Park, southern Greens and eastern Catskills with 40s for the rest of the region. Mon-Mon night drier weather takes shape over eastern NY and western New England, as northwest flow in the wake of the trough the shifts east of Nova Scotia. A residual cold pool will allow for instability cumulus or clouds mixed with sun and breezy conditions. A few pop-up showers may occur over the western Dacks and southern Greens. Highs will run below normal and be in the 50s and 60s with some upper 40s over the mtns. Clearing skies and cool conditions are expected with patchy frost over the higher terrain, as high pressure builds in from Ontario Mon night with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term begins with fair and dry weather with high pressure building in from the Great Lakes Region over the Northeast. The subsidence from the ridge will yield partly to mostly sunny skies with cooler than normal temps with the exiting trough. Highs will run below climatological normals by 5 to 10 degrees with lower to mid 60s in the valleys and mainly 50s over the higher terrain. Mid and high clouds increase Tue night associated with a mid and upper level trough moving into the Midwest with lows in the 40s with some upper 30s over the mountains. A storm system continues to organize over the Ohio Valley and the mid Atlantic Region with some showers lifting northward ahead of a warm front by Wed afternoon. The NBM is aggressive increasing PoPs to high chance and likely values (55-75%) late Wed afternoon into Wed night. Periods of rainfall are possible with the low to mid-level warm advection, as a coastal wave forms potentially near the Delmarva Region by Thu morning. With abundant clouds and wet conditions max temps will run much cooler than normal both Wed and Thu with widespread 40 and 50s. The coastal wave and the mid and upper level trough that sets up over the Northeast may keep numerous to occasional showers into Friday morning. Low temps will continue in the 40s with some upper 30s over the higher terrain. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance for exceeding 1 inch of rainfall in the 48-hr period ending 12Z/8am Friday are in the 25-60% range with the highest probs south and east of Albany. The showers persist during the day in the cyclonic flow, as the wave moves away and the mid and upper level trough lingers. A drying trend may occur by Saturday if high pressure builds in from southeast Canada. Temps Fri-Sat will still run close to 10 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00z/Mon...Scattered to numerous showers will impact the TAF sites prior to 04Z/SUN. The showers will be most numerous from KALB-KPSF north and east ahead of the ahead cold front. We used a TEMP group for KPOU. Some reductions to MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible. VFR conditions should return initially, but then post frontal MVFR stratus will likely develop at KGFL prior to 12Z/SUN with VFR stratocumulus or stratus at KALB/KPSF/KPOU continuing until 12Z/SUN. The upper level low and a wave moving along the front near the New England Coast will bring low VFR/MVFR cigs and scattered to numerous showers with VFR/MVFR vsbys from KALB-KPSF north and in the late morning through the afternoon. Some TEMPO groups were used to bring in the lower vsbys/cigs. KPOU will added a TEMPO group for showers in the early to mid pm with MVFR cigs. Widespread MVFR/low VFR cigs will end the TAF cycle. The winds will vary from the southwest to west/northwest at 5-12 KT with some gusts around 20 KT early tonight. West/southwest winds 8-15 KT with some gusts up to 20-25 KT expected late Sunday morning into the early to mid pm. The winds will be mainly west/northwest in the mid to late pm at 10-15 KT with some gusts still persisting at 20-25 KT. Outlook... Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula