####018010135#### FXUS64 KFWD 161907 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 207 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New Short Term, Aviation, Long Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening roughly along and east of I-35. Some thunderstorms could become severe with primarily a large hail threat. - Scattered storms will be possible each afternoon and evening Saturday through Monday. A few storms may be severe (5-15% chance). - A cold front on Tuesday will knock temperatures back down to near or slightly below normal for the middle of next work week, with afternoon highs dropping into the upper 70s/low 80s. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ Severe thunderstorms are in the forecast this afternoon, then again tomorrow. Threats today and tomorrow will include large to very large hail as well as damaging winds. The tornado threat is low, but non-zero. Any outdoor activities (graduation, festivals, etc.) should pay close attention to the weather each afternoon through Tuesday. --Today and Tonight-- The ingredients are coming together for vigorous thunderstorm development closer to 3pm across North Texas. Recent surface analysis depicts a stalled front currently extending from near Gainesville to Mineral Wells. South/southeast of this boundary, a hot and humid airmass is now in place as dew point temperatures range between 72 to 75 degrees. Temperatures will also rise through the next few hours, peaking in the lower 90s in North Texas and mid 90s across Central Texas. With this hot and humid airmass, an extremely volatile atmosphere will be in place this afternoon as surface based instability exceeds 5000 J/Kg. Strong effective inflow shear will support supercell development with large hail (2"+) the primary hazard, followed by damaging winds. Although 0-1 km shear parameters are not supportive of tornado development, the extremely high amounts of shear will support rapid vertical stretching of the air column which may temporarily increase the near-surface shear profile. Given this potential, the tornado threat will remain low but non- zero. The area that will be most at risk for thunderstorm development will be along and east of the I-35 corridor, especially in North Texas. Most, if not all, thunderstorm development is likely to occur along the boundary given a localized source of lift due to surface wind convergence. Storm chances will gradually wane after sunset as storms continue moving to the east/southeast this evening. With the parent system responsible for the stalled boundary well north of our region, little to no shift is expected to the positioning of this front. Tonight, expect conditions to remain humid with temperatures struggling to dip below 70 degrees for a large part of the region. --Saturday and Saturday Night-- The aforementioned stalled boundary will once again become the focus of attention tomorrow. The main difference will be the added source of lift as a short-wave moves overhead late in the morning to early afternoon hours. Similar to today, forecast thermodynamic profiles once again drive instability above 4500 J/kg within a strongly sheared effective inflow layer. The stalled boundary will continue to be the surface feature for thunderstorms to initiate. With the added forcing for ascent due to the shortwave, storm mode will initially be supercellular in nature. With upscale growth, supercells will become clusters of storms with a migration from large hail to damaging winds as the main threats. There will be slightly more low-level shear tomorrow, however, the overall tornado potential will continue to remain low. Afternoon thunderstorms will diminish closer to midnight as daytime heating gradually wanes. Unfortunately, the boundary will move very little and remain draped from northeast to southwest across North Texas. This will set the stage for additional thunderstorm development this weekend...additional details listed below. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ Update: The active weather will continue as we move into a new week. Additional rounds of thunderstorms can be expected through Tuesday before dry weather settles across the region. For details regarding next week's forecast, see the discussion below. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Sunday through Thursday/ ...Sunday through Monday Night... On Sunday, the dryline will retreat further west, extending from the Texas Hill Country through western Oklahoma. Aloft, a strong upper-level disturbance will pivot from the Great Basin into the Rockies. The primary disturbance, however, won't eject east of the Rockies until Monday. As such, forcing for ascent will be weak Sunday evening, resulting in very isolated storm coverage along the dryline. Storms should mostly remain west of the I-35/35W corridor and near the Red River should they develop. Any storm Sunday evening will have the potential to be severe, with deep layer shear supportive of organized updrafts and 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE. This will bring the potential for large hail and damaging winds with any mature thunderstorm. Though non-zero, the tornado threat will be low owing to weak low-level shear. Storms should quickly dissipate after sunset due to continued weak forcing and the redevelopment of a strong capping inversion. On Monday, the primary upper-level vort max is expected to eject out into the central Great Plains. This will induce surface cyclogenesis somewhere in eastern Colorado or western Kansas. As the low develops and tracks east, a cold front will approach the area from the north, with a dryline draped from central Oklahoma down the I-35 corridor into central Texas. East of the dryline, a very warm and moist airmass will still be in place, with SBCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg. PVA with the approach of the main disturbance aloft will bring sufficient forcing for ascent to develop scattered thunderstorms along the dryline by the late afternoon/early evening hours. Exact storm coverage remains uncertain at this time, but should be more widespread than any convection on Sunday. As storms mature and move off the dryline, abundant SBCAPE, strong deep layer shear, and 0-1km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will be favorable for all modes of severe weather, particularly for any discrete storms that can persist into the early overnight hours with the development of the low-level jet. Exact timing and coverage remain uncertain at this point, as this will be determined by the progression of the upper-level disturbance and the strength of the capping inversion during the daytime hours. ...Tuesday through Thursday... By Tuesday, a cold front will move through the region. Isolated thunderstorms along the front during the morning hours will become more widespread as the day progresses. At this time, it looks like the front should push east of our area before peak heating and the greatest potential for storms gets underway. Regardless, there will be enough deep layer shear and instability in place to support organized convection, so will have to continue monitoring for the potential of additional strong to severe thunderstorms during the early afternoon hours. Behind the front and through the middle of next week, temperatures will return to near or slightly below normal. Highs should be in the upper 70s and low 80s, with nighttime lows dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s. High pressure will dominate behind the front, supportive of dry weather Tuesday evening through Thursday. Darrah && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ A mix of VFR and MVFR is ongoing across North and Central Texas due to low clouds and hazy conditions. The main focus will be the development of thunderstorms this afternoon, likely closer to 20Z. Storm initiation will likely occur over D10 with impacts to North Texas air traffic looking likely. There will be threat for very large hail, along with gusty winds. A temporary northerly wind shift will be possible at all sites this afternoon and evening. For now, this is being advertised in all North Texas TAF sites. If confidence increases for KACT, a temporary wind shift will have to be included in subsequent TAF sites. Storm chances will be rather short-lived as they move off to the east. Tonight, low clouds will once again arrive at all TAF sites, generally in the MVFR category. The probability for IFR remains low at this time. Tomorrow, another wave of thunderstorms will impact D10 around 20Z. VCTS has now been added to the KDFW TAF at 20Z. Expect timing refinements over the next 24 hours as models converge on timing/coverage. Hernandez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested along and east of I-35 this afternoon. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 90 72 88 72 / 30 50 30 20 20 Waco 74 92 71 92 72 / 50 40 20 10 10 Paris 66 87 69 85 69 / 30 60 40 20 20 Denton 67 91 69 87 69 / 10 40 30 30 20 McKinney 68 90 70 85 71 / 20 50 30 20 20 Dallas 71 92 71 88 72 / 40 50 30 20 20 Terrell 70 88 71 87 72 / 70 50 30 20 10 Corsicana 73 90 73 91 74 / 70 40 30 10 5 Temple 74 93 71 93 74 / 30 40 20 10 5 Mineral Wells 68 92 69 91 70 / 5 40 20 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$