####018005123#### FXUS63 KSGF 161910 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 210 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Moderate (4 of 5) Risk for severe weather this afternoon, mainly along and east of Highway 65 and before sunset. Very large hail to the size of softballs, damaging winds up to 80 mph, and tornadoes will be possible. - 50-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. A Slight(2 of 5) Risk exists for a few thunderstorms may become capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to the size of quarters. - The unsettled weather pattern will continue across the area early next week. This includes the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in addition to localized heavy rainfall and flooding. Uncertainty remains in the exact details. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 This afternoon into early evening: A significant air mass change occurred this morning across this Missouri Ozarks as a warm front lifted back into the area that brought dew points back into to the upper 60s to low 70s and temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s. This has caused significant instability to develop ahead of a cold front that was pushing west to east into the area. Severe storms quickly developed around midday ahead of the cold front and continue to quickly lift east- northeast into eastern sections of the CWA. The atmosphere is prime for very large hail with the instability and shear combination over the area. Hodographs have supported splitting supercells which is what we've seen so far across the area. While we are not seeing much in the way of backed surface winds, we can't rule out a tornadoes with the strong low level shear. The storms should quickly push east of the area between 21z and 00z and the severe weather risk with this round of storms should come to an end for our CWA. Rest of tonight: We should clear out behind the frontal boundary tonight as drier air moves moves in with dew points in the 40s for most of the area. Overnight lows should dip into the mid 50s. Saturday into Saturday night: Upper level flow remains out of the west-southwest and will bring in another wave of energy by late in the day into Saturday night. Moisture and instability will begin to creep back into the area from the southwest and we'll see the chance for thunderstorms increase (50-70%). Some strong to severe storms will be possible, mainly over the southwest quadrant of the CWA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Sunday-Monday: Convection from Saturday night will linger into Sunday morning. Upper level flow will remain out of the southwest ahead of the main trough still to the west of the area. A frontal boundary will be west to east across the area and we should see low level winds increase during the evening with the approach of the upper level wave. Thunderstorm chances will increase again during the evening (70-80%), especially in the northern CWA north of the boundary. Strong to severe storms will be possible along with very heavy rain and possibly flooding with any training of storms. This activity should push east of the area on Monday morning. ADditional development could occur on Monday afternoon if sufficient atmospheric recovery takes place during the day. Monday night - Tuesday: As the main upper wave begins to push into the area, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday night into Tuesday. Severe weather chances will be conditional on how much instability can develop. Heavy rain will again be likely and with several rounds of heavy rain and several inches of rain possible, flooding will be possible. Wednesday - Thursday: We should finally end the thunderstorm and severe weather chances as the upper wave shifts off to the east of the area. High pressure builds into the area along with a drier air mass. Highs behind this main wave should drop back into the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 For the 18z TAFS, convection has started developing ahead of a frontal boundary pushing into the area from the west. The conveciton stretched from near Springfield to Branson, but was quickly moving off to the east-northeast. Have thrown a prob30 group in for BBG until 20z, but most likely convection will be east of the area by the onset of the 18z TAFS. Should see conditions become VFR by about 20-21z through the remainder of the period. The gusty winds out of the southwest will diminish by this evening and then become light and variable during the evening and overnight period. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg ####018007378#### FXUS61 KRLX 161910 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 310 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rounds of strong to severe storms expected today through tonight. Cold front crosses Saturday. Quieter to finish the weekend, then unsettled pattern returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM Friday... The severe thunderstorm watch has been allowed to be canceled in our KY counties, as well as Wayne and Lincoln in WV. The strongest convection is currently across the southern mountains and coalfields and it has moved out of these counties. Still anticipating another round of severe weather later this evening with a line of storms that will form. As of 214 PM Friday... Put up a wind advisory across the higher elevations of Randolph and Pocahontas from 10 AM Saturday until 2 AM Sunday. Models are showing fairly strong post-frontal flow that will move in early Saturday morning. Gusts between 45 and 50 MPH are possible across the higher elevation zones. As of 1235 PM Friday... Currently have some thunderstorms to our southwest in eastern KY that are moving into the severe storm/flash flood watch area. There is a fairly sturdy (-50 to -75 CINH) mixed-layer cap that has formed over the lowlands which is showing some signs of disrupting these storms as they surge deeper into our forecast area. Damaging winds, hail, and the chance for an isolated tornado are the hazards of concern. Despite the cap, instability and lapse rates are on the stronger side with SBCAPE between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg. Effective shear is very strong with values between 50-65 kts, which will lead to some rotating storms this afternoon. Convective models are keeping the trend of training these storms over the southern coalfields/mountains, so flash flooding concerns are elevated through the afternoon, hence the flash flood watch. 1-hr FFG is around an inch to an inch and a half in spots with 3-hr FFG only slightly higher. HREF/HRRR are still in agreement with bringing in a well developed, stronger line of storms that will move in from the west between 7 PM and 9 PM, subsequently moving across the forecast area west to east. The greatest wind threat will reside in this system where prob wind statistics show 60 - 70 MPH gusts could be possible if this line if it manifests as the CAMs are suggesting. Further flash flood concerns will linger into the night with models showing the southern, upshear portion of the line moving over the counties currently outlooked with the flash flood watch, which will be receiving repeated rounds of heavy rainfall this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Friday... Outside of a few isolated showers early Saturday night, dry weather is expected through the short term period as weak upper level ridging builds into the region. Gusty winds early Saturday night across the lowlands will quickly diminish, while persisting across the highest terrain into the day on Sunday (generally 30-40 mph). Sunday will feature a fair amount of sunshine with high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s across the lowlands, with 60s in the mountains. Lows Saturday and Sunday night will generally be in the 50s across the lowlands, with mid 40s to low 50s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Friday... A return of unsettled weather is expected for the new work week courtesy of a slow-moving disturbance progged to impact the area. The chance for ISO/SCT showers/storms returns on Monday and Monday night as an associated warm front lifts north towards the area, with the best chance for rain being the south/central portions of the CWA. More widespread showers/storms return Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday as low pressure slowly approaches/crosses the region, with a general drying trend expected late Thursday into Friday. Given recent rainfall, some hydro concerns are certainly possible as the week goes on. Temperatures are progged to be near normal or slightly below throughout the period, with the chillest day expected to be Thursday as an upper trough builds into the region. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 211 PM Friday... Showers and thunderstorms will be commonplace this afternoon. Some will likely be strong to severe containing damaging winds, hail, heavy rain, and the chance for an isolated tornado or two. MVFR and IFR conditions should be expected through the afternoon as a result. Winds will be breezy and gusty through the afternoon as well, even if there are no thunderstorms in the vicinity of a terminal. Gusts between 25 and 35 knots are possible. Models show a slight break in activity between ~23z and ~02z where VFR ceilings and vsbys may slide in ahead of a stronger storm complex slated to move in from the west between ~02z and ~06z. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concern with this line of storms. Gusts above 40 knots are possible with this system when it moves through. IFR conditions or lower will likely accompany these storms. Activity will taper off after ~08z tonight as the storm complex exits to the east, but some lingering showers, MVFR/IFR ceilings, and gusty winds will likely reside across portions of the area going into Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 EDT 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L H M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by late Tuesday and continue at times into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>007-013>015- 024>026-033-034-515>518. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ523-526. OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ086-087. KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GW/LTC NEAR TERM...LTC SHORT TERM...GW LONG TERM...GW AVIATION...LTC ####018008131#### FXUS62 KFFC 161910 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 310 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Temps in the upper 80s to low 90s (10-12 degrees above normal could lead to a record this afternoon for KATL. - Line of thunderstorms pushing through north Georgia, late tonight into tomorrow morning. (1AM-8AM for areas north of I-20). Discussion: Current stream of moisture coming from the Pacific ahead of the line tonight is leading to the low clouds this morning from the SW and the high level cirrus. Meanwhile the low pressure system that will bring in our line of showers and thunderstorms overnight is positioned over Minnesota with an attendant cold front through the mid MS valley. This low pressure system pushes eastward into the great lakes region with the front also pushing into Tennessee and northern Georgia and Alabama this evening into the overnight. Over our area SPC has outlined extreme northwest Georgia in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)pushing southward to the northern reaches of the metro. Taking a deeper dive into the parameters, MUCAPE values of 2500-3000J/kg, 40-55kts of 0-1km bulk shear and 0-1km SRH values of 200-300 m^2/s^2 are forecasted for northwest Georgia as the line pushes into northwest Georgia. These variables are conducive to the slight risk outlined with damaging wind gusts and a low risk for tornadoes. The tornado risk has gone from very low to low with this system with the main area to watch for being that far NW GA area. Would not be surprised to see a few spin up type tornadoes, but overall that damaging wind threat will be the highest. Timing for the system looks like 1-2AM to push into far NW Georgia before pushing southward and reaching the northern metro by 4-5AM before the front loses steam and stalls out. The main threat window will be from 1AM-8AM tomorrow. After the front pushes into the area late morning, expecting it to stall out over the area somewhere between the metro and a line from MAcon to Columbus where tomorrow could see some showers begin to form along the boundary. CAMs are a little less bullish on this and thus precip chances are closer to 20-30%. Tomorrow night could see the beginnings of another wave of precip moving into the area but most of that timing is pushing into Sunday and thus mentioned below. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... (Sunday morning through next Thursday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Rain and a few thunderstorms possible on Sunday. Can't rule out an isolated severe storm or two. - Monitoring for storm potential in north Georgia on Monday. Again, can't rule out the possibility of seeing something severe. - Stronger front will roll through in the middle of next week. Will need to monitor this for some severe weather potential, but currently a bit too much uncertainty around timing, orientation, and some other parameters to solidly say severe will be possible. Forecast: Stalled surface frontal boundary will still be in place across the CWA Sunday morning as a quick hitting shortwave rotates through the longer-wave ridging building over the CWA between two troughs located over the eastern seaboard and western CONUS. This system looks as though it will cause enough surface mass response to generate some rain and possibly a few thunderstorms over the CWA on Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, with best chances to the west/northwest where isentropic lift will be most aligned with the stalled surface boundary. Model soundings are limited in instability, especially given the potential for cloud cover, but given the shear that will be in place, there will be the possibility for an isolated severe thunderstorm to occur, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. These should quickly lose steam by sunset, though some showers and storms may linger into the overnight hours. Monday has started to get an interesting look to it from this forecaster's perspective. Another shortwave (in this case, noted as a piece of the upper level PV within the western trough that gets sheared off as a result of a stronger TPV digging in behind it) ejects into the Great Plains Sunday evening and causes a pretty robust baroclinic response with surface low and convection developing. Diving into some of the deterministic output shows that some of the guidance holds that convection together overnight as it rides the subtropical ridge and becomes a bit organized with potential cold pool. This convection then turns more south during the day on Monday as it rides within the NW flow, become a pretty classic setup for a honkin' line of storms to move through portions of the southeast. This will need to be monitored going forward for severe potential, given an ample parameter space will exist with plenty of shear and instability. Uncertainty is still a bit too high to highlight this as a severe area within SPC style outlooks, however, both around if it forms and exactly where it would eventually travel. By the middle of the week, set up aloft gets a bit more complex. The larger trough in the desert SW is progged to eject into the Great Plains and eventually into the eastern CONUS, but several complex interactions around this will dictate exactly where and when it ends up traveling. These interactions will have strong dependencies on convection (and more specifically, the latent heating produced by said convection) that I simply do not trust longer range global guidance to have a good handle on. Still, as some point the expectation is that a stronger cold front will push through the CWA, bringing an additional round of rainfall and the potential for some form of severe weather (insert "It's gonna be May" JT meme here). Only other thing to note will be the temperatures. While highs on Sunday may be a bit more muted thanks to the weak front and potential cloud cover and rain, they are still forecast several degrees above average in the mid 80s to low 90s. This only builds into Monday and Tuesday. Current forecasts are a few degrees below the record highs at several locations, so expect some heat. Lusk && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 156 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Mostly high level cirrus across the area as the low level clouds retreat to the north. Expecting this high level cirrus to extend into the late evening. Wind gusts up to 18-20mph are expected through the evening as well mainly from the SW> Overnight, will see the front push southward into the area with VCSH beginning at 09z and -TSRA from 10-14z. Following the -TSRA should see MVFR cloud decks to begin the morning before skies eventually become VFR by the early afternoon. Wind gusts from the W are again expected tomorrow. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium on MVFR and TSRA. High on all other elements. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 70 87 66 86 / 10 30 10 30 Atlanta 71 87 68 87 / 30 20 10 40 Blairsville 64 81 61 80 / 60 20 10 40 Cartersville 68 87 65 86 / 50 20 10 50 Columbus 70 90 68 90 / 0 20 10 40 Gainesville 70 85 67 85 / 30 20 10 40 Macon 69 90 68 90 / 0 20 10 30 Rome 68 87 65 85 / 60 10 20 50 Peachtree City 70 87 65 87 / 20 30 10 40 Vidalia 69 92 71 92 / 0 10 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...Hernandez ####018006456#### FXUS63 KILX 161911 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 211 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 4 of 5 (moderate) risk for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening south of roughly I-70, and a level 3 (enhanced) risk further northwest to roughly I-55. Possible hazards include intense straight-line winds, large hail, and tornadoes. - Southwest winds gusting 35-50 mph this afternoon will combine with relative humidity values below 30% north of I-72 to result in increased fire danger. - Those strong winds will also result in a risk for localized blowing dust, which could briefly diminish visibility for motorists in rural areas. That risk will be highest north of I-70 and east of roughly the IL River. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A mid level disturbance lifting northeast out of the central Plains will bring an opportunity for severe thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. In its wake, conditions turn dry and cooler for the upcoming weekend. Early next work week, thunderstorm chances will return with the approach of another trough lifting out of the Great Plains. ***** SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING ***** At 2pm, surface temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s across central IL, with dewpoints ranging from the low to mid 60s south of roughly I-70 to low 40s west of the IL River. The more abundant moisture continues to surge north in advance of a mid-upper level disturbance lifting towards the region from the Central Plains, though this will eventually be limited by ongoing upstream convection across east-central MO. As these storms build northeast along the dryline and move into central IL, they will pose a risk for all severe hazards, including large-significant hail, destructive downburst winds; meanwhile, the risk for tornadoes will be higher in southeast and east-central IL where low level moisture is higher and hence LCL heights are lower. While convective mode is depicted in virtually every CAM as discrete to start, there may be a tendency towards upscale growth into a MCS capable of widespread damaging winds. Fortunately, these storms will be moving quickly, so the threat will be rapidly diminishing from west to east and we'll update the watch accordingly. By 9pm (if not sooner), the storms should be out of here. ***** GUSTY WINDS TODAY **** South-southwest winds will continue to gust 30 to 40 mph today, with some potential for sporadic gusts up to 50 mph especially across our western counties where winds aloft will be increasing with the approaching upper level trough. HRRR/RAP Bufkit soundings suggest top of channel winds could exceed 50 kt at times mainly west of the IL River, but we suspect a slight dry bias may be resulting in erroneously high values; nonetheless, we'll be monitoring surface observations in case we need to expand the Wind Advisory to include more counties. In addition, these strong winds could result in some localized blowing dust which could degrade visibility for motorists, especially considering we already had a few reports of such blowing dust yesterday and winds are running slightly stronger today. These strong winds, combined with dry low levels (RH values < 30%) across our north/northwest counties, are resulting in increased fire weather danger which will continue through the evening. See the fire weather section below for more information on that. ***** DRY AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND ***** The upper trough will shift east and surface high pressure build into the region in its wake tomorrow/night, giving us a dry and seasonably cool weekend with daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow may actually feel a bit chilly given northwest winds gusting to around 30 mph. The next opportunity for precipitation will arrive Sunday night/Monday into Tuesday of next week as another system lifts out of the Central Plains. A lot remains unclear about that system, including its arrival time and warmth/moisture return ahead of it, which suggests vast uncertainty surrounding both precipitation amounts and any severe weather potential. However, a strong push of cool advection appears increasingly likely towards the middle of next work week; blended guidance from NBM brings highs into only the low to mid 60s by Wednesday. Bumgardner && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Between an unseasonably deep low pressure system across the Upper Midwest and a surface high to our east, the pressure gradient has tightened across central IL favoring stiff south to southwest winds which will gust 25 to 35 kt (sporadically higher) through the evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave disturbance lifting out of the Central Plains will spark storms somewhere across the area, with the highest confidence in storms at DEC and CMI and less certainly further northwest. These storms will be capable of generating localized large hail and wind gusts over 50 kt, as well as briefly diminished visibility. Behind a cold front, winds will shift to westerly this evening and remain gusty through the early portion of the overnight period. Lower ceilings will filter in from the north towards sunrise/11z, with HREF giving a 40-60% for MVFR at PIA and BMI for several hours during the early to mid morning. Winds pick back up a bit around 15-16z as diurnal heating deepens mixing. Bumgardner && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Deep mixing has resulted in large dewpoint depressions and hence RH values less than 30% near and north of roughly I-72, where wind gusts are slated to increase to upwards of 35-45 mph shortly. Consequently, we recommend limiting or at least using extra precautions with any burning activities during the late morning into early evening. The special weather statement remains for areas from I-72 northward to address the enhanced fire danger today. Bumgardner/Huettl && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-037- 038. && $$ ####018009623#### FXUS62 KRAH 161912 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 312 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances moving atop an upper level ridge building across the SE US will support mainly diurnal showers and storms and unseasonably hot temperatures to end the work week. A series of cold fronts will move through the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 1130 AM Friday... The previous forecast remains in good shape, only adjusting PoPs slightly along the northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain as newer Hi- Res model data comes in. Comparing the 06z to the 12z NCAR HRR Neural Network output model show the probabilities for severe winds and hail this afternoon and overnight have shifted slightly northward. The general Hi-Res model guidance still has a large spread for both rounds this afternoon and overnight. Expecting the MCSs over the Kentucky region this morning to cross the Appalachian Mountains and and keep its energy and momentum along the NC/VA border this afternoon. With all the said, I expect the Slight Risk in VA to be expanded south into portion of Northern NC with SPCs morning update. * There remains a conditional risk for Strong/Severe Storms across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain this afternoon/early evening PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Overview: Strong upper level ridge centered over the Eastern US will move offshore late in the day. A shortwave trough associated with the upper cyclone moving into the Great Lakes will approach from the west late tonight/early Saturday. Today: Model spread remains high, and forecast confidence regarding storm potential this afternoon and evening continues to be low. The upper ridge could prove quite formidable again today. The exception may be across northern portions of the forecast area where shortwave vort disturbances spilling atop the ridge could support a cluster or two of very strong and severe storms during the afternoon and evening. Strong diurnal heating(afternoon highs upper 80s to lower 90s) within the seasonably moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates(7.5-8 deg C/km)associated with the EML lingering over the mid south and SE US will create a strongly unstable environment with MLCAPE expected to peak between 2000-3000 J/kg. Shear is also quite impressive with 0-3km shear forecast to strengthen to 35-40 kts during the afternoon and evening. If storms do make it into the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain, the robust instability and strong shear could allow for intense persistent updrafts and supercells to track east across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain counties. Large +2" hail and potentially destructive straight-line winds up to 75 mph. An isolated tornado is also possible. Alternatively, the ridge could shield central NC from the strong deep convection, diverting the severe threat north of the area, leaving it hot with considerable mid and high clouds across the area. So as you can see we are dealing with a very conditional threat for severe storms today. Stay vigilant and monitor the latest weather conditions. Tonight: Any convection should dissipate or move east of the area before midnight. The approach of the upper trough from the west could support some weakening convection moving into the western Piedmont towards sunrise. Otherwise, mostly dry overnight with record warmth expected(see climate section below). Lows 70 to 75. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Friday... * There is still a fair bit of uncertainty, however a conditional threat for isolated strong storms Sat aft/eve remains. Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will remain suppressed well south of the area as a closed low tracks ewd across the srn/ern Great Lakes and Northeast US Sat/Sat night. A couple of shortwave disturbances within the attendant trough will move across the region on Sat before the trough shifts ewd out of the area Sat night. At the surface, the parent low will occlude over the Great Lakes on Sat, while a secondary low develops over the Northeast US. The attendant cold front should progress ewd across the area Sat aft/eve as the secondary low lifts newd along the New England coast. Uncertainty: The biggest uncertainty continues to be whether the convection expected to move across the mid-MS and TN Valley regions tonight, will hold together and move into the area early Sat. And if it does move into the area, how long it will hold together. Then, how much the showers and associated cloud cover will stabilize the atmosphere and/or limit destabilization during the aft/eve, thus impacting whether showers will re-develop along the front and move across the area Sat eve/night. Latest hi-res guidance consensus has the showers/iso storms holding together and moving into the western Piedmont around daybreak Sat, then weakening and/or dissipating somewhere over central NC Sat morn. Convection: Forecast soundings off the NAM show destabilization across much of the area (albeit briefly in the NW), with highest CAPE values across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain during the aft/eve. Max MUCAPE around 2000 J/Kg with effective shear around 40 kts at KFAY and KRWI (and briefly at KRDU). Additionally, with 25-35 kts at the top of the mixed layer, wind gusts in that range will be possible until the nocturnal inversion sets up Sat eve. Additional showers/storms could develop during the aft/eve along/ahead of the front if enough destabilization is realized, and could result in strong wind gusts and possibly some hail. However, there is still somewhat low confidence in timing, location, and coverage of that threat, if it materializes. Temperatures: Also dependent on what happens with the early convection Sat morn, but for now expect highs ranging from mid 80s NW to low 90s SE. Based on current timing of the front, expect lows to range from low 60s NW to upper 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 PM Friday... * Largely unsettled weather is expected for the beginning of the extended period, until a cold front moves through the region Wednesday or Thursday. * Temperatures will remain above average until Wednesday, with below average temperatures expected Thursday and Friday. Sunday and Monday, a front is expected to be quasi-stationary to our south. These days are expected to be mostly dry, however afternoon showers may develop in the south depending on how far north the front stalls. Otherwise, temperatures should be around 5 degrees above average, with maximum temperatures on both days in the low 80s in the north, to the upper 80s, maybe reaching low 90s in the south. Sunday and Monday night should also have lows in the 60s. Rain chances increase again Tuesday afternoon as low pressure associated with the previously stalled front progresses north of the region through the mid Atlantic. There is large model spread on the strength, timing, and location of this system, however models are generally showing a warm front moving north through the region on Tuesday, increasing rain chances, and a cold front moving through the region Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning. Thus, there are rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday, which could potentially linger into Thursday. The best chance for widespread rain currently looks to be Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures should fall behind the front, leaving maximum temperatures in the 70s on Thursday. High pressure should build in behind the cold fropa, leaving Friday dry and keeping maximum temperatures in the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM Friday... Forecast confidence is lower than normal wrt to storm potential this afternoon and evening. Upper level ridge arching over the Mid-Atlantic region supporting an increase in cloud coverage and isolated storms this afternoon and evening. A few isolated severe storms could bring flight restrictions to any of the northern TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with these storms so along with TSRA in the TAF, added gusts up to 45kts in the PROB30 groups. As the low level jet moves through after the initial round of expected storms, LLWS will be the next aviation hazard late overnight into early Saturday morning. As the upper level trough moves offshore, a cold front will bring another round of flight restrictions Saturday morning. The models have been back and forth on whether or not the line of storms makes its to the region, therefore around line of PROB30s for all TAF sites between 09z and 13z for a chance of thunderstorms with flight restrictions. Outlook: Chances for diurnal isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through much of the period. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially in areas that received significant rainfall the previous day. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CA/CBL SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Helock AVIATION...CA/CBL ####018005162#### FXUS64 KMRX 161912 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 312 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: 2. Severe thunderstorms possible with threats of damaging winds, large hail, and a lower but still significant threat of tornados this afternoon into tonight. 2. Drier conditions for Saturday. Discussion: The atmosphere is primed for severe storms out ahead of the approaching short wave trough, as HRRR/RAP forecast continue to show MLCAPE this afternoon between 2000 and 2500 J/Kg with EBShear of around 50 to 60+ kts. A remnant outflow boundary near the northern Plateau into Southwest VA has the potential to be the focus for storms this afternoon out ahead of tonight's main event, and supercell structures would be likely along with the potential for hail, damaging winds, and an increased threat of a tornado near the boundary. This threat will be conditional on if the cap erodes enough for these additional storms to get going which is still uncertain, and the hi-res CAMS have had a poor handle on this daytime convection overall and unfortunately have added little to the confidence in this scenario so far. Despite the loss of heating after sunset, the instability will remain significant tonight out ahead of the main round of convection as lapse rates steepen with the shortwave trough moving in. The HRRR/RAP forecasts show MLCAPES still around 2000 to 2500 J/Kg as the convection approaches. The LLJ will also increase as the line approaches with 850 mb winds increasing to near 50 kts, and EBShear OF 60+ kts is indicated along with increasing low level shear (with 0-1km shear reaching 35+ kts). Hi-res CAMS and other models have been more consistent in showing a line of convection moving through overnight, with timing still looking most likely to fall between 03z and 09z. All severe hazards look possible, with damaging winds and large hail the primary threats along with a lower, but still significant (around 5 percent within 25 miles of a point), threat of tornadoes. In addition, forecast PW values of 1.6 to 1.8 will be near the climo max, and NAEFS IVT values are forecast to be near climo max as well. This is a strong signal for very heavy rain rates, which may result localized flooding especially in areas that see repeated rounds of rainfall. The highest risk for flooding would likely be across the north given the increased potential for storms there this afternoon. Saturday will turn drier behind this system, with plenty of sunshine and a warm afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 308 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: 1. Warm with a some showers and storms around at times Sunday through Monday. 2. Precipitation chances increase for Tuesday into Wednesday, along with a chance for strong to severe storms. 3. Cooler late next week in the wake of a cold front. Discussion: Saturday night looks to be mainly dry, but despite low amplitude upper level ridging slowly building over our area during the Sunday/Monday time frame, weak ripples in the flow are expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to our area at times. By Tuesday, a stronger upper trough will approach the Mississippi Valley with increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday across portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians, and there is an uptick in the chances for strong to severe storms with this system. Low confidence on how models are handling the latter periods behind the cold front. It may be drier, but some models want to park a closed upper low nearby so at this point the forecast will keep lower chances for showers and storms Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will move through mainly overnight, although a storm may impact TRI this afternoon. Will try to time the main threat periods with prob30 thunder groups all sites. Other than during the precipitation, predominantly VFR conditions are expected, although there may be a brief period of MVFR conditions lingering behind the overnight showers/storms, with the highest chance for that to occur being TRI. Winds will be gusty from the southwest today, with a bit more of a westerly component late in the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 69 87 65 85 / 80 10 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 83 62 82 / 90 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 66 84 62 82 / 90 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 64 80 57 78 / 90 20 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... AVIATION... ####018007081#### FXUS64 KHGX 161913 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 213 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Forecast for this afternoon remains on track, as many of you can feel right now with the Texas summer heat. Upper 80s/90s highs with heat indices breaking the triple digits are still on the tap for this afternoon, threatening to break daily high temperature records and several locations. Looking past the heat nowcast, we'll also be monitoring the position of a cold front, dry line and sfc trough currently over central Texas. The consensus of CAM guidance keeps these boundaries closer to the Dallas/Fort Worth area, with convection firing off along the line and tracking east/east northeast. Guidance suggest that this activity could clip our northeastern counties this evening (7PM-12AM window) as activity broadly starts to fizzle out. SPC respectively has the northern fringes of our CWA under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe weather this evening. Overall the severe weather threat looks incredibly slim, especially given how late in the evening it is, though non-zero and at least worth a mention. If we get a "Little supercell that could" then we'd have to watch for damaging winds and hail, though again this threat is very slim and unlikely to manifest. Ridging across the Gulf of America amplifies with mid level heights progged to rise to 587-590 dam. NAEFS mean 500mb heights and 850mb temperatures are progged to still be over the 90th climatological percentile, potent enough to keep these abnormally hot conditions in place throughout the day. Short range guidance is still pessimistic on the notion of mixing, even after several days of dewpoints mixing into the 60s. More interestingly, 925mb dewpoints in the HREF show some moisture convergence near Central/East Texas. Greater low level moisture around this area seems to at least partially mitigate the effects of mixing, though not completely. Regardless, we're still starting down highs in the upper 80s/90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to triple digits. The combination of WBGT and heat risk indicate that this level of heat will primarily impact groups more sensitive to heat, though it would be wise to practice heat safety regardless if you plan to spend an extended amount of time outside. In addition, make sure to look before you lock your car. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Deep mid/upper ridge remains in place over the Gulf into early next week, keeping the hotter than normal regime in place through Tuesday. So expect more humid conditions with highs mostly in the 90s until then. However, the flow pattern over Texas will be in flux by Tuesday thanks to a mid/upper trough over W CONUS ejecting eastward into central CONUS. The resulting surface low over the Central Plains should push eastward towards the Ohio River Valley. But the trailing cold front is expected to push southward towards the Gulf. Question is, will capping limit convection or could we have enough lift on Tuesday to foment convection (showers/thunderstorms)? Another question I have for Tuesday is how hot could SE Texas temperatures get? A well mixed LL veering wind profile could enhance WAA, giving Tuesday's temperatures a boost. Maybe we could see upper 90s in some areas. The post frontal air mass appears less humid. At a minimum, that would equate to cooler nights and less stifling days. But some guidance suggests would could see a more substantial cool down than what we have in our official forecast. We shall see if we are so lucky. Self && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MVFR CIGS should scatter & lift over the next hour, ushering in VFR conditions throughout the rest of the daytime. Gusty south winds continue this afternoon, easing and becoming light this evening. MVFR CIGS should slowly fill in from the coast during the late afternoon/tonight, with IFR CIGS looking more feasible during the early morning hours of Saturday (compared to this morning), mostly in areas south of I-10. Isolated patchy fog will be possible as well during the pre-dawn hours. CIGS/Fog will scatter, lift and clear during the mid to late morning hours as gusty winds resume. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Generally light to moderate onshore flow is expected over the next several days. A steepening pressure gradient is expected to result in somewhat higher winds on Monday into Tuesday, especially at night and during the morning hours. Caution flags may be warranted. Considering the long fetch, we cannot rule out seas reaching Small Craft criteria over Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. Winds may shift more north to northeast by Wednesday and Thursday thanks to a passing frontal boundary. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 With multiple days of near record to record breaking heat possible going into early next week, here's a look at the daily high temperature records through Tuesday (May 20th). May 16th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 95F (2003) - Houston/IAH: 94F (2022) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022) - Palacios: 88F (2010) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 17th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (1925) - Houston/IAH: 96F (2018) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018) - Palacios: 93F (2003) - Galveston: 90F (2020) May 18th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 98F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2022) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022) - Palacios: 89F (2022) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 19th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 94F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2003) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008) - Palacios: 89F (2024) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 20th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2020) - Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008) - Palacios: 95F (1943) - Galveston: 91F (2022) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 95 75 96 / 20 20 20 0 Houston (IAH) 77 95 78 93 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 87 78 85 / 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....Self AVIATION...03 MARINE...Self ####018006687#### FXUS64 KMEG 161913 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 213 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 214 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight with strong tornadoes, perhaps long tracked, damaging winds and very large hail. - An Enhanced (3 out of 5) to Moderate (4 out of 5) Risk for severe weather is in effect across the northern half of the Mid- South this afternoon into tonight. - Saturday will be mostly dry and warm. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist from Saturday night through the middle of next week with chances for severe storms each day, especially Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A significant severe weather outbreak is expected today. Storms have already produced significant hail and damaging winds this morning and minimal airmass modification in their wake. Tropical humidity remains across the entire region with 70+ F dewpoints within an increasingly warm boundary layer. Storms are expected to fire later this evening both along and ahead of a cold front positioned over OK/KS. These storms will head east, likely congealing into a line with the potential for scattered development out ahead. Today's environment is climatologically rare for the Midsouth in late spring. A stout EML has been positioned over the region for the past few days, containing 700-500 mb lapse rates into the 8 C/km range and continues to persist today. Surface insolation, albeit muted under a thick cirrus shield, in conjunction with these lapse rates will allow for MLCAPE of 3500+ J/kg this evening. Upper wind fields are expected to contain a strengthening mid- level jet streak during this time frame as well with the Midsouth optimally positioned under the right entrance region. Lift from this feature is expected to collate with peak heating, significantly reducing capping. Surface convergence will be somewhat nebulous this afternoon where a few renegade cells are possible, but the highest confidence for storms is still with the cold front as it passes through. Once storms are able to form, they will find themselves within a well-sheared environment with bulk shear in excess of 50 knots. Low- level hodograph curvature will be lacking early on which suggests a large (2"+) hail threat during the early evening. Very cold 850-700 mb wet bulb temperatures could create strong cold pools and a strong (75+ mph) damaging wind threat. As the evening progresses, low-level hodographs are anticipated to enlarge with both 0-1km and 0-3km SRH approaching the 200-300 m2/s2 range along and north of I-40 suggesting a higher tornado threat. Storm mode is still the largest question regarding the potential for significant tornadoes this evening. If prefrontal supercells are able to form, significant tornadoes are possible. Along the front, initially discrete storms are expected to congeal into a line with time. Tornadoes within this regime will be most likely while storms are discrete before being undercut by strengthening cold pools. Regardless, today has the potential to be a dangerous day with an Enhanced (3 out of 5) Risk to a Moderate (4 out of 5) risk for severe weather in effect across much of the region. Large (2+ inch) hail, swaths of strong (75+ mph) straight line winds, and the potential for strong tornadoes exists. The cold front will continue south through the night, eventually stalling somewhere over N MS. Temperatures should cool a bit tomorrow with a few diurnally driven showers across N MS. A threat for a few stronger cells containing marginally severe hail and damaging wind is possible. This threat also exists Sunday as the stalled boundary begins to lift north as a warm front in response to a new trough moving east through the Western CONUS. The western trough is expected to traverse the Central CONUS Monday, reaching the Midsouth Tuesday. Another warm, tropical airmass will be in place as this system approaches. Model guidance continues to place a surface low over the Midwest with a cold front moving through the region during the evening. Strong upper flow will overspread a destabilizing airmass, resulting in another chance for severe weather as outlined by the SPC. Specific details on hazards and the magnitude of any severe threat are hard to pin down at this time. However, at least a damaging wind and hail threat are possible. Models currently struggle to produce the low level SRH necessary for a widespread tornado threat, but some spin ups could be possible within an organized line of convection. This forecast is still several days out and will likely change through the weekend. So, stay tuned for updates. Ensembles are in good agreement with the upper flow taking a northwesterly orientation through the end of the week after the frontal passage Tuesday. Strong surface high pressure in combination with this upper pattern will lock in colder air through the end of the week. Highs are currently expected to remain in the 70s and low 80s to end the period with mostly dry weather. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Significant impacts to aviation expected throughout the forecast period. Southerly winds with gusts to 25 knots and MVFR CIGs will continue through this afternoon amid a very humid airmass. Some erosion of these clouds could occur, but confidence in this scenario is too low to remove/raise any of these MVFR CIGs at this time. As the afternoon progresses, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Midsouth. Storms are very likely to be severe, reaching the area as early as 22z-23z. Added TEMPO groups to JBR/MKL/MEM to account for this threat which are likely to be amended as today's situation evolves. Significant hail (> 2 inches in diameter) is possible today with larger thunderstorms. Storms coverage may wane through the night on approach to TUP. Behind today's severe weather, winds will veer to westerly around 10 knots. Skies are expected to be FEW250/SCT and VFR through the end of the period at all sites after storms leave each terminal. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...JAB