####018004992#### FXUS64 KAMA 161915 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 215 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - There is a very slight chance for a severe thunderstorm in the northeastern combined Panhandles tomorrow afternoon. - Temperatures will return to the upper-80s to low-90s across most of the Panhandles this weekend. - Breezy to windy conditions will be possible on Sunday and Monday. - Highly conditional storm chances in the far eastern Panhandles on Sunday. Potential for storms to become severe if they do form. && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A closed mid to upper low is currently over MN about to enter the Great Lakes Region as of this writing. This is the system expected to feed some severe weather for the Ohio River Valley later today. Now for the FA, the Panhandles are south of this system with quasi- zonal flow aloft. For the combined OK/TX Panhandles, fairly benign weather is expected today and mostly tomorrow with relatively calm winds. Afternoon highs tomorrow may be a few degrees warmer especially over the southeastern TX Panhandle into the mid to upper 80s. Under the southwest flow aloft tomorrow, some perturbations may try to spark a thunderstorm or two in the far northeastern combined Panhandles. Some CAMs are trying to pop a thunderstorm over or around Beaver County before moving northeast into KS and fall apart. Have added a slight chance PoP between 3PM and 7PM tomorrow afternoon mainly for Beaver County. If something can get going, storms may be high based but potentially severe. NAM has MLCAPE values well over 3000 J/Kg with bulk shear well over 30 kts. H7 theta-e does not look the greatest and confidence is not very high for storm development but will need to be watched. 36 && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 By Sunday, much of the western CONUS will be under a broad mid to upper level trough. This trough will have the FA under southwest flow aloft and feed a surface trough. The surface trough is expected to bring dry and breezy conditions to the combined Panhandles. A dryline is expected to develop along the front edge of the surface trough. Where this dryline sets up is yet to be determined, but confidence is high that it will be east of the combined Panhandles. This will limit storm chances for the far eastern combined Panhandles. Depending on the progression of the dryline a 10 to 20 PoP may be needed to cover storms that develop in the area before east into western OK. For now PoPs remain less than 10 percent. Monday, as the surface low progesses east, a cold front will fill in behind and bring north winds. Breezy winds are expected Mon afternoon ahead of the front with breezy winds Tue behind the front. Some few ensemble members are hinting at showers behind the front in the northern combined Panhandles Mon night. The NBM seems to be heavily weighted by some outliers as the NBM50 has no QPF and the NBM75 has less coverage of QPF than the mean. Have left some slight chance PoPs in for now. Tuesday, behind the front, afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the 70s. Wednesday, conditions warm slightly into the upper 70s with light winds. It is not until Thu when temperatures bounce well into the 80s with potential 90s on Fri. 36 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Surface winds will generally be 15 kts or less out of the west, becoming light and variable overnight. 36 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 55 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 49 85 52 93 / 0 20 10 0 Boise City OK 45 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 53 90 55 92 / 0 10 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 50 87 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 53 87 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 57 88 57 90 / 0 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 46 83 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 45 85 48 89 / 0 10 0 0 Hereford TX 53 87 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 52 87 56 91 / 0 20 10 0 Pampa TX 55 88 57 89 / 0 10 0 0 Shamrock TX 56 88 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 Wellington TX 56 90 60 92 / 0 10 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36 ####018006050#### FXUS61 KCTP 161916 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 215 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Periods of rain and thunderstorms through Saturday with some potential for localized damaging winds and flooding downpours * Breezy, cooler, and much drier (less humid) end to the weekend with rain-free conditions into early next week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak thunderstorms along an old boundary are moving toward the backyard. Other SHRA/TSRA are expected to pop up pretty much anywhere around the CWA, mainly S of I-80. Curved jet rolling over the mini upper ridge overhead has it's core of fastest winds to our west. The best forcing/lift will be generated over the srn tier by 20Z, and should help to continue to make storms as it lifts N/NE across the CWA between 20Z-01Z. SPC has put out an MCD which matches up with the going SLGT risk area (60% watch issuance prob). Good heating after earlier storms/rain has left us very moist with mid- summer 65-69F dewpoints widespread. Despite low QPF numbers for this evening from, all mdls/guid, the wet ground and moist atmos could produce brief heavy rain. After the initial burst of SHRA/TSRA, there will be a lull in precip until well after midnight. An MCS is progged by many guid members to slide right along and S of the MD border between 06-09Z. There could be some TSRA sneak N and we'll keep 30 PoPs in the S. May be reducing the PoPs further than current numbers over a large portion of the CWA overnight. But, collab with neighbors will lead to the ultimate numbers. A few SHRA/TSRA could also linger or redevelop in the nrn tier before sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The CFRONT moving in from the Upper Great Lakes will not arrive until ~15Z over the NW, and move steadily through the CWA on Sat. The amount of recovery we get from early morning stability will be key to the potential severity of the storms which could form in the warm sector and along the front. SPC has just dropped the SLGT risk from the E, and most of the CWA is in the MRGL risk for svr wx on Sat. Still some uncertainty with that, though, so we wouldn't be surprised to have that SLGT risk walked westward again at some point. Drying will ensue post-fropa, allowing the dewpoints and temps to dip Sat night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Departing and potent mid and upper level closed upper low over the Upper St.Lawrence Valley to start the period will have one last spoke of vorticity/cool air aloft rotating through its Southwest quadrant. This feature will help to bring the cloudiest and "possibly" the coolest "daytime" conditions of the next week - with to plenty of thick strato cu and even some occasional sprinkles and scattered, ground-wetting showers. Accentuating the chill will be a gusty WNW wind in the mid 20s to low 30s (MPH) range. As is typical with this type of pattern, more numerous lake enhanced rain showers will occur across the NW Mtns where there is a fairly high (60-70 percent) probability for at least several hundredths of an inch of rain. the Scent Mtns should see some breaks of sun and nothing more than a few sprinkles on Sunday. GEFS 850T anomaly shows a slight downward T trend for Monday into Tuesday with neutral/warming and ridging aloft. This will help day time temps rebound greatly while allowing for mainly clear and chilly conditions Monday night with a potential for frost over central and northern PA with PWAT values dipping to well below normal - or 0.3 to 0.4 of an inch. The mid to late week period is highlighted by another fairly sharp trough axis moving across the region on Thursday, preceded and accompanied by numerous showers and a chance for afternoon TSRA. The max in rainfall/TSRA risk will be Wednesday as PWATS rebound to near or slightly above one inch across at least the Southern Half of PA. Notably cooler air returns for Thursday and Friday as both the GFS and EC are in fairly good agreement on yet another closed low moving over or just to the north of PA (though the EC is about 12 hours or so slower with this feature). Thursday and Friday could be quite similar to Sunday of this weekend (which is mainly cloudy and chilly) with sprinkles and Northern/Western Mtn lake enhanced showers. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR now, but sct TSRA popping up along old outflow W of UNV. Additional, sct, SHRA/TSRA will be popping up as heating peaks. The best forcing will be with a wave moving up from the SW, driving convection SW-NE over Central PA between 20Z-01Z. Current SHRA/TSRA in WV seem to be the feature that will be best to use for timing. Have stayed close to LAMP guidance for CIGs/VISBY after 01Z. Most models keep 85% of convection later tonight (05-10Z) confined south of the MD border. But, some storms may drift up to the Turnpike. Left mentions of storms later tonight out of the srn terminal. JST would be the only place I might have mentioned it at this point. Wind does get gusty in the morning as the gradient tightens in the warm sector ahead of a cold front. That front should move through during the daylight hours. Stronger storms are possible for the ern terminals (IPT/MDT/LNS) in the aftn. Drying should occur in the late aftn for the western terminals behind the cfront. Outlook... Sun...Mainly VFR. Isold SHRA BFD. Mon-Tue...VFR. Tues PM-Wed...Ocnl SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... A flood watch is in effect form late tonight through Friday morning for Somerset and Bedford counties. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Lambert AVIATION...Dangelo/Bauco/Gartner ####018006977#### FXUS62 KCHS 161916 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 316 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ..NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES... .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will persist through the weekend. A weak cold front may push over the region early next week, remaining generally stationary through Tuesday. A stronger cold front is timed to sweep across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The upper ridge will begin to slowly weaken overnight as a powerful upper low over the northern Plains meanders to the east. A warm, dry night is expected as a slightly pinched pressure gradient remains in place. Lows should only drop into the lower-mid 70s, possibly a tad cooler in spots across mainly interior Southeast Georgia, especially areas south of I-16 and west of I-95. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday: Possible chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning due to outflow from previous night's storms in the Ohio Valley. Some of the recent high res. guidance has been indicating that some convection could reach the region by ~15-16Z and then quickly weaken over the area as we head into the afternoon. Given the dry-air aloft and mid-lvl flow weakening throughout the day, the severe potential with these storms appears low. Expect highs in the low to mid 90s, and overnight lows to dip into the upper 60s to low 70s (mid 70s near the coastline). Sunday: A wavy stationary front might linger over the region throughout the day, as a MCS sourced from the Mid-Mississippi Valley tracks closer, reaching the Lowcountry by the afternoon (~18-19Z). There remains some uncertainty with this setup as it's largely dependent on the placement of the stationary front. Recent runs of the NAM/ECMWF has kept the forecast rather dry, while the GFS has been indicating that some type of disturbance will possibly coincide with the afternoon seabreeze and allow convection to develop in the afternoon. With the temperatures relatively high and dewpoints in the low 70s, there just might be enough instability for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. By sunset, convection should track offshore and temperatures will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s overnight. Given the possible rainfall in the afternoon, patchy fog could develop overnight...however the forecast does not include fog at this time. Monday: Upper-lvl ridging from the Gulf will govern the overall pattern on Monday, with heights gradually increasing throughout the day. With mostly sunny conditions, highs will climb into the low to mid 90s. A seabreeze will likely develop in the afternoon and advance inland, thus it wouldn't be a surprise to see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop along with this. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday: The axis of the H5 ridge from the Gulf will continue to dominate most of the region on Tuesday and allow highs to reach into the low to mid 90s with upper 90s in SE Georgia. These temperatures could definitely challenge the the record temperatures, see climate section below. With hot and dry conditions, thanks to the ridging aloft, any precipitation seems unlikely and kept the forecast dry. Overnight, temperatures will dip into the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday through Friday: A strong upper- lvl low situated over the Mid- west will continue to advance northeastward overhead, as an associated cold front sweeps through the region on Wednesday afternoon. With the support of a likely favorable environment in the afternoon, severe thunderstorms on Wednesday will definitely be possible. Some model guidance have already started to hint of the development of something severe, however uncertainty remains as this is still very far out in the forecast. Moving on Thursday and Friday, this aforementioned upper-lvl low will shift over New England and eventually off the coast by the end of the week. Due to the passage of the cold front, highs on Thursday and Friday will be slightly cooler than previous days but will track just along normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 16/18z Aviation Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through early afternoon Saturday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Some brief flight restrictions could be possible on Sunday afternoon with the showers and thunderstorms. Other than that, VFR conditions will persist. && .MARINE... Tonight: Southwest winds 10-15 kt will prevail with seas 2-3 ft. Saturday through Wednesday: Ahead of the outflow boundary from previous night's weather in the Ohio Valley, south- southwesterly winds could become a bit gusty on Saturday with gusts approaching 25 kts in the afternoon. However, this remains under Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Afterwards, Sunday through Tuesday, high pressure will dominate over the Atlantic waters and result in relatively calm southerly winds with an increase in winds each afternoon associated with the seabreeze. Moving on to Wednesday, a strong cold front is expected to pass over the marine waters in the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms may develop along this cold front and result in wind gusts well over 25 kts. Generally seas will be 2 to 3 ft, then 3 to 4 ft Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for Wednesday, however holding off for now until more guidance comes in for this. && .CLIMATE... The high temperature so far at KCHS is 94, which ties the daily record high for the date. The record has a good chance of being broken over the next few hours. The high temperature so far at KSAV is 94. The record of 95 set in 1915 has a good chance of being broken over the next few hours. The low temperature observed so far today at KCHS is 72. If this holds through 1 AM Saturday, this will establish a new record high minimum for the date. The previous record was 71 last set in 2018. The observed low of 73 at KSAV and 75 at KCXM fell just shy of the daily records for those sites. Record High Temperatures: May 16: KCHS: 94/1941 KSAV: 95/1915 May 17: KCHS: 96/1963 KCXM: 94/1899 KSAV: 97/1899 May 18: KSAV: 97/1899 May 19: KSAV: 97/1996 May 20: KSAV: 96/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 17: KCHS: 74/1995 KCXM: 75/1998 KSAV: 74/1995 May 18: KCHS: 75/1995 KCXM: 77/1991 KSAV: 74/1899 May 19: KSAV: 74/1930 May 20: KCHS: 72/2022 KCXM: 76/2022 KSAV: 73/1896 May 21: KCHS: 74/2022 KSAV: 74/2017 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ ####018003844#### FXUS64 KSJT 161916 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 216 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated potential for a severe thunderstorm this afternoon and early evening from Brownwood to Brady to Mason and east. - Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through early next week. Strong to severe storms will be possible in the afternoons/evenings. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 SPC has added a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from Brownwood to Brady to Mason today. While storms are conditional, the slight risk looks good, as the instabilities in that area have increased with MUCAPES in the 4000 J/KG range. A cumulus field was also developing from Junction to Mason. If storms develop, very large hail of 3 inches+ are possible. Most of this activity should ending by 7 PM CDT, but carried it over for a few hours past 7 PM. A similar situation will exist for Saturday afternoon as a dryline forms along a Sonora to San Angelo to Abilene to Throckmorton line, with very unstable air with dew points in the lower 70s to the east. SPC again has a slight risk/along and east of the dryline, Storm activity may be conditional, depending on breaking the cap, but it develops, very large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Mild temperatures in mid 60s to lower 70s are expected tonight, with highs in the mid and upper 90s Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 By Saturday night, the dryline and associated thunderstorm activity should mix back westward, with the potential for thunderstorms developing along the retreating dryline across parts of West Central Texas Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A similar setup will be in place for Sunday afternoon and evening, with much of the area under a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather and the northern portions of the Big Country under a Slight Risk. We would not be surprised to see the area of Slight Risk across the Big Country on Sunday extend further south and eastward once the high-resolution models can extend out that far and confirm the low level moisture and dryline position. For the beginning of the work week, there remains some chances for another round of showers and thunderstorms mainly over our eastern-most counties during the day, then spreading west into the evening and overnight hours before dissipating early Tuesday morning. Drier conditions will likely return for Tuesday and persist through the end of next week, with afternoon high temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s for the first half of next week increasing into the low to mid 90s by next Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Light haze will be affecting KJCT through the period as moist air with dew points in the lower 70s advects northward. Otherwise VFR next 24 hours. A weak cold front will bring light Northwest to north winds to KABI and KSJT this afternoon, but winds should weaken further and become variable overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 68 96 69 92 / 0 20 20 30 San Angelo 67 98 69 96 / 0 20 10 20 Junction 70 99 68 98 / 20 30 10 20 Brownwood 68 96 68 92 / 20 40 20 40 Sweetwater 67 95 69 95 / 0 10 10 20 Ozona 70 96 71 95 / 0 20 10 10 Brady 71 97 70 95 / 20 40 20 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...04 ####018003640#### FXUS64 KLUB 161919 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 219 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures are expected through Monday. - There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across the far eastern Rolling Plains Saturday and Sunday. Most areas will remain dry. - Gusty winds expected Sunday and Monday which may lead to some patchy blowing dust on the Caprock. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Quiet and warm conditions will continue tonight and tomorrow. Mostly zonal upper flow will give way to more southwesterly upper flow tonight as the upper low currently over Minnesota moves over the Great Lakes. Surface lee troughing will develop through the day tomorrow and will allow for a low end breezy day with winds out of the southwest around 15 to 20 mph. This will help to dry out the low levels with surface dewpoints dropping into the upper 20s to mid 40s. Models are fairly consistent with bringing an upper shortwave trough, currently west of Baja, over the region tomorrow afternoon. While the shortwave will be a much smaller version of its former self, there could be enough lift for some virga showers tomorrow afternoon as mid/upper level moisture over northern Mexico pushes northward. No mention of PoPs is warranted at this time. Expect afternoon highs to reach into the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Sunday will be characterized by increasing southwesterly flow as a lead shortwave will round a broad upper-level low centered over the Pacific Northwest. The accompanying lee cyclogenesis along the Palmer divide in Colorado and attendant 500mb jet will result in breezier conditions across west Texas. Southwest winds will advect hot Mexican plateau air into the area with highs into the high 80s/low 90s. Blowing dust will be possible during the afternoon. Storm chances on Sunday will be dependent on the placement of the dryline by late afternoon, though current guidance is in good agreement that best storm chances will be east of the CWA. The upper-level low will quickly translate and fill as it pushes over the Rockies and stalls over the central high plains. The surface cyclone will slowly propagate east from Colorado and push towards Nebraska on Monday resulting in an enhanced belt of mid- level westerlies across CWA. The strong jet overhead will usher in another breezy day at the surface with possible blowing dust. Accompanying the westerlies is hot Sonoran Desert air resulting in highs well into the 90s. No storms are anticipated in the CWA as they will be well east of the area. As midweek arrives, there is good model agreement that northwest flow will dominate the forecast as the upper-level low slowly moves through the eastern CONUS. Stable conditions will preside over the area with dry air and milder temperatures. Long range models are in fairly good agreement that by late week into Memorial day weekend, ridging will build in overhead leading to stable conditions and warmer temperatures. KCL && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...51