####018006062#### FXUS61 KCTP 161920 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 315 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Periods of rain and thunderstorms through Saturday with some potential for localized damaging winds and flooding downpours * Breezy, cooler, and much drier (less humid) end to the weekend with rain-free conditions into early next week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Weak thunderstorms along an old boundary are moving toward the backyard. Other SHRA/TSRA are expected to pop up pretty much anywhere around the CWA, mainly S of I-80. Curved jet rolling over the mini upper ridge overhead has it's core of fastest winds to our west. The best forcing/lift will be generated over the srn tier by 20Z, and should help to continue to make storms as it lifts N/NE across the CWA between 20Z-01Z. SPC has put out an MCD which matches up with the going SLGT risk area (60% watch issuance prob). Good heating after earlier storms/rain has left us very moist with mid- summer 65-69F dewpoints widespread. Despite low QPF numbers for this evening from, all mdls/guid, the wet ground and moist atmos could produce brief heavy rain. After the initial burst of SHRA/TSRA, there will be a lull in precip until well after midnight. An MCS is progged by many guid members to slide right along and S of the MD border between 06-09Z. There could be some TSRA sneak N and we'll keep 30 PoPs in the S. May be reducing the PoPs further than current numbers over a large portion of the CWA overnight. But, collab with neighbors will lead to the ultimate numbers. A few SHRA/TSRA could also linger or redevelop in the nrn tier before sunrise. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The CFRONT moving in from the Upper Great Lakes will not arrive until ~15Z over the NW, and move steadily through the CWA on Sat. The amount of recovery we get from early morning stability will be key to the potential severity of the storms which could form in the warm sector and along the front. SPC has just dropped the SLGT risk from the E, and most of the CWA is in the MRGL risk for svr wx on Sat. Still some uncertainty with that, though, so we wouldn't be surprised to have that SLGT risk walked westward again at some point. Drying will ensue post-fropa, allowing the dewpoints and temps to dip Sat night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Departing and potent mid and upper level closed upper low over the Upper St.Lawrence Valley to start the period will have one last spoke of vorticity/cool air aloft rotating through its Southwest quadrant. This feature will help to bring the cloudiest and "possibly" the coolest "daytime" conditions of the next week - with to plenty of thick strato cu and even some occasional sprinkles and scattered, ground-wetting showers. Accentuating the chill will be a gusty WNW wind in the mid 20s to low 30s (MPH) range. As is typical with this type of pattern, more numerous lake enhanced rain showers will occur across the NW Mtns where there is a fairly high (60-70 percent) probability for at least several hundredths of an inch of rain. the Scent Mtns should see some breaks of sun and nothing more than a few sprinkles on Sunday. GEFS 850T anomaly shows a slight downward T trend for Monday into Tuesday with neutral/warming and ridging aloft. This will help day time temps rebound greatly while allowing for mainly clear and chilly conditions Monday night with a potential for frost over central and northern PA with PWAT values dipping to well below normal - or 0.3 to 0.4 of an inch. The mid to late week period is highlighted by another fairly sharp trough axis moving across the region on Thursday, preceded and accompanied by numerous showers and a chance for afternoon TSRA. The max in rainfall/TSRA risk will be Wednesday as PWATS rebound to near or slightly above one inch across at least the Southern Half of PA. Notably cooler air returns for Thursday and Friday as both the GFS and EC are in fairly good agreement on yet another closed low moving over or just to the north of PA (though the EC is about 12 hours or so slower with this feature). Thursday and Friday could be quite similar to Sunday of this weekend (which is mainly cloudy and chilly) with sprinkles and Northern/Western Mtn lake enhanced showers. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR now, but sct TSRA popping up along old outflow W of UNV. Additional, sct, SHRA/TSRA will be popping up as heating peaks. The best forcing will be with a wave moving up from the SW, driving convection SW-NE over Central PA between 20Z-01Z. Current SHRA/TSRA in WV seem to be the feature that will be best to use for timing. Have stayed close to LAMP guidance for CIGs/VISBY after 01Z. Most models keep 85% of convection later tonight (05-10Z) confined south of the MD border. But, some storms may drift up to the Turnpike. Left mentions of storms later tonight out of the srn terminal. JST would be the only place I might have mentioned it at this point. Wind does get gusty in the morning as the gradient tightens in the warm sector ahead of a cold front. That front should move through during the daylight hours. Stronger storms are possible for the ern terminals (IPT/MDT/LNS) in the aftn. Drying should occur in the late aftn for the western terminals behind the cfront. Outlook... Sun...Mainly VFR. Isold SHRA BFD. Mon-Tue...VFR. Tues PM-Wed...Ocnl SHRA/TSRA. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... A flood watch is in effect form late tonight through Friday morning for Somerset and Bedford counties. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Lambert AVIATION...Dangelo/Bauco/Gartner ####018004683#### FXUS64 KBRO 161922 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 222 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - Special Weather Statement for heat index values between 105-110 degrees in place for portions of Starr, Hidalgo, Brooks, and Kenedy counties. - Hot temperatures expected into midweek with Heat Advisories possible, especially Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 New day, similar story...Upper level ridging will maintain hot, near- record breaking temps into this weekend. Gusty conditions today east of I-69C (gusts up to 35 mph observed at BRO) will diminish this evening. Similarly gusty tomorrow, if not a bit less. These south- southeasterly winds allow for temperatures to remain elevated under upper level ridging. High temperatures tomorrow a touch cooler than today. This will raise heat index values tomorrow higher than todays, with maximum apparent temperatures up to 111 possible. NBM has been overforecasting high temperatures and dew points for this regime. Blended high temps with 1:1 NBM and CONSShort, lowering temps by ~a degree. A majority of the CWA tomorrow is under a Major Risk (level 3 of 4) of heat-related illness. Continue to be mindful of heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity during peak heating, stay hydrated, and LOOK before you LOCK. Children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles. There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at local beaches through Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Oppressively hot temperatures will continue across the region through the period as ridging remains in place over the Gulf through Tuesday. Wednesday a cold front will push into central Texas, possibly getting as far south as the Ranchlands and with more zonal flow aloft and a surface ridge building across the Plains allowing for a slight cool off beginning Wednesday. Heat Advisories will be likely for the first part next week, especially Monday and Tuesday. Heat Risk will generally remain the in Major category (level 3 out of 4), though some pockets of Extreme Level 4 out of 4) are possible through Tuesday. Wednesday much of the area will fall back into a Moderate Heat Risk (level 2 out of 4) and Minor Risk (level 1 out of 4) on Thursday and Friday. While the forecast will remain generally dry, Wednesday evening into the overnight thunderstorms developing off the Sierra Madre could potentials make it to the Rio Grande before dissipating, but chances and confidence remain low at this times. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR at all sites to continue through Friday afternoon with gusty southerly winds. Inconsistent gusts around 26 kts will continue through the afternoon at HRL and BRO. Cloud coverage begins to build this evening, bringing MVFR conditions to all sites at or beyond sunset. All sites may experience temporary drops to IFR early Saturday morning, however, less confidence at MFE - hence no TEMPO. Winds calm a bit overnight, with gusts around 20 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Tonight through Saturday night... Moderate south-southeast winds and moderate seas will persist throughout the short term. Small Craft should Exercise Caution conditions will be present, even borderline favorable Saturday morning, as winds increase slightly during the overnight hours today and tomorrow. Sunday through Thursday...Slightly adverse marine conditons are expected through much of the period with Exercise Caution expected due to elevated winds. There is a potential for periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions, mainly Monday into early Tuesday due to higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 92 79 92 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 79 98 79 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 85 79 85 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 90 77 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....68-AM AVIATION...69-HK ####018008319#### FXUS61 KPBZ 161923 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 323 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... There is potential for strong to severe storms today and tonight as a cold front approaches. Drier and cooler conditions return Sunday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Convoluted environment today will maintain low-moderate confidence in the presence of storms, but a higher confidence in severe potential given initiation. - A decaying MCS in possible tonight somewhere in the Appalachians, but confidence in location is low. ------------------------------------------------------------------- .. 3:20pm Update .. The tornado risk has increased slightly in the watch as dry air filters into the southern side of the northeast moving convection, heightening the curvature in the wind profile in the lowest 2 km of the storms as winds aloft blow from east west to east while surface winds orient more south to north. Helicity is maximized in right moving (west to east) cells on the backside of the line. .. Previous Discussion .. The lack of overnight storms south of I-80 completely changes the severe forecast for today. Given CAM guidance before 12Z showed a worked over environment across the area, it poorly represents current conditions. So the forecast will heavily rely on initialization at and after 12Z. Given a look at the current wind field and satellite, there is some indication of a convergence zone in to low levels settling in across southwest PA, eastern OH, and the northern WV panhandle. In addition, there is a residual outflow boundary from overnight convection in the I-80 corridor. If an area was favored for convection, it would be along an east-west axis passing near the Pittsburgh area. Looking at the 12 sounding showing ~1400 MLCAPE and ~900 DCAPE, the atmosphere would be primed for severe convection, particularly if updrafts drive into and wet-bulb the 6km to 12km later. But recent cirrus overspread has complicated just exactly how intense these updrafts may become. Any intense updrafts in a high DCAPE environment would have a primary risk of damaging winds and hail. There is a chance the DCAPE is lower later in the day, though this would rely on upstream convection to contaminate the environment, which is still of moderate uncertainty. After initiation, one would expect the primary storm motion to be to the northeast as outflow combined with synoptic wind. If there is an area to watch for flooding, it would be on the south side of convection, where outflow would be fighting the synoptic wind field, resulting in training. This remains lower probability. Uncertainty snowballs tonight as convection will rely on two factors: 1) Where and if the environment has been tainted by daytime convection. 2) Where storms fire upstream during the day today. If todays storms put do an outflow, it is very likely overnight convection stays south of it. This boundary will be important in distinguishing the threat as scenarios range everywhere from no outflow to outflow far south of the area. The farther north and/or a lack of an outflow means higher severe chances tonight. Second, there is initiation today. The farther north storms in the northern Ohio Valley initiate today, the higher the chance our region is impacted by a progressive, decaying MCS. With both of these factors together, the best chances of severe tonight increases the farther south of Pittsburgh you go. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front will cross the area, bringing gusty winds and a cooldown. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Irrespective of prior weather, there is high confidence of a cold frontal passage in the late morning and early afternoon. With this and the upper low pulling across the northern Great Lakes. This will pack the pressure gradient. Pre-frontally, there is some indication that there may be a shallow cap as a bit of pre-frontal warm advection rides up the axis of the front. Should this exist, winds will not start the day gusty. Should this be absent, gusts of 30-40 mph may develop in the morning. Into the afternoon, winds are expected to peak along the cold front. Gusts could be heightened in showers/storms along the front, mostly in the 40-50mph range, but the chance of severe could not be ruled out completely. After the cold front, low level cold-advection settles in, destabilizing profiles with the potential to mix into 40kt 850mb winds. Winds behind the front will be more likely than ahead of the front. With daytime gusts a bit higher in the ridges of eastern Tucker County, a wind advisory is in effect from 10am Saturday to 2am Sunday, where gusts up to 50mph are possible. Winds die down a bit overnight with decoupling && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler and drier pattern returns Sunday through Tuesday. - Precipitation chances return Tuesday into Wednesday with another low pressure system - Potential for heavy rain mid-week that warrants monitoring ------------------------------------------------------------------- Models have been consistent that troughing over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS will maintain northwest flow over the local area Sunday into Monday, keeping temperatures seasonable and the weather dry through that time. Probability of precipitation increases again late Tuesday into Wednesday with a new low ejecting out of the Rockies and tracking east across the Plains. A few model scenarios note a stationary boundary straddling south of Pittsburgh with this passing low. If that scenario plays out, heavy rain could pose a threat for portions of the region around mid-week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A tough and uncertain forecast lies ahead. At this time it looks likely that much of the TAF period can be VFR. The possible interruptions to this are two separate periods of thunderstorms: one this afternoon and another during the overnight hours. Latest satellite shows a broad expanse of cirrus overspreading the region originating from convection to our south. This cirrus will act to limit heating across the southern portion of our region and could mitigate some risk to see thunderstorms fire near MGW/ZZV/HLG. Farther north along a BVI/IDI line there remains a boundary left over from last nights convection, which will likely be the focus for afternoon convection. This boundary has shuffled southward through the day and poses a low threat to allow thunderstorms near PIT/AGC/LBE, this has been included as a PROB30 through the afternoon. BVI/FKL/DUJ have a slightly higher chance to see thunderstorms this afternoon. Any of these storms can bring gusty winds, and briefly lower VIS and CIG. Storms overnight remain more uncertain as the complex that they are associated with has not yet formed in the MO/IL region. This complex is expected to move NE'ward towards us but models diverge on the exact track as some favor a dive southward along the CAPE gradient and some favor somewhat of a split where storms miss much of our region. At this time I have moved our TEMPO groups back to PROB30 for the overnight period with growing uncertainty in track. A period of MVFR showers may trail behind any MCS-like system tonight. Outlook... Patchy restrictions in scattered showers are expected Saturday and Saturday night under a crossing upper trough. VFR returns Monday under high pressure. Restriction and rain potential returns with a Tuesday warm front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ514. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Hefferan NEAR TERM...Milcarek SHORT TERM...Milcarek LONG TERM...Cermak/Hefferan AVIATION...AK ####018006400#### FXUS61 KBTV 161923 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 323 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening with a lull in activity overnight. Saturday, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from noon through 8PM. Much cooler conditions arrive on Sunday and will linger into the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 304 PM EDT Friday...Moderate CAPE profiles are supportive of scattered to numerous showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Coupled with temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80 with dew points in the upper 50s to 60s, and a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe. Best chance of that occurring this afternoon/early evening will be towards the Champlain Valley of New York and across southern Essex County, NY and Addison/northern Rutland Counties of Vermont. An MCV moving through Essex County, NY could be just the forcing edge to kick off a stronger cell, but so far storms have been fairly tame. A few have likely produced brief periods of small hail and some modest wind gusts, but by and large, storm tops have been low lacking a stronger forcing mechanism outside of decent instability and general troughiness aloft. Should something get going, it could become long-lived and feed off unseasonably hot temperatures - BTV has hit 86 - and develop into a broken line. Showers/thunderstorms track east through the evening with chances decreasing overnight as weak forcing exits northeastward. Some pockets of fog will be possible tonight where low clouds are more limited and rainfall occurs this afternoon/evening. Moisture/clouds will likely keep temperatures moderated tonight for most spots, similar to this morning's lows in the upper 50s to 60s. The next series of troughs will roll through the North Country Saturday bringing decent lapse rates aloft and increased shear. Projected hodographs, moderately high CAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range, and continued warmth will support better chances of severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. As such SPC has our region under a SLIGHT RISK of severe thunderstorms. Given tall CAPE profiles and elevated PWATs, localized heavy rainfall with these thunderstorms could produce flash flooding should multiple cells go over the same area. Cloud cover will temper high temperatures tomorrow, but still looking at upper 70s to around 80 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 304 PM EDT Friday...An active, but largely unimpactful stretch of weather is then expected for Saturday night into the Sunday night time frame. Our area will lie on the southern flanks of a synoptic- scale polar longwave trough centered across northern Quebec with rather brisk west-northwest flow aloft. Two distinct shortwave features remain on track to cross our area during the period, mainly focused in the Sunday/Sunday night time frame. Seasonably cool boundary layer thermal profiles support mainly snow showers or light snows with these features, though their quick movement and limited moisture support only light accumulations of 1-3" across elevated terrain and perhaps the SLV, and an inch or less in the Champlain/CT River Valleys. Low temperatures range through the teens to around 20 Saturday night with corresponding highs on Sunday in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Then slightly milder Sunday night with generally 20s expected. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 304 PM EDT Friday...The broad theme for Sunday into next week is one of much cooler and unsettled weather as a series of upper lows affect the region. A series of rex blocks, initially across the far North Atlantic and then across south central Canada by the middle of next week will keep flow more bogged down across our region through the period. Sunday into Sunday night looks quite inclement with periodic showers and cool northerly flow, which likely persist across portions of northern VT into Monday. Brief drying occurs by Tuesday into the first part of Wednesday, before the next upper closed low trundles into the area with a widespread showery regime returning for the back half of the work week. Given cooler temperatures and a largely stable boundary layer, the threat for severe weather is essentially nil. Daily highs to largely range through the 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the upper 30s through the 40s. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18Z SATURDAY...VFR conditions will persist until showers become more numerous. Best chances for showers will be 20-01Z with a few embedded thunderstorms as well. It will be tough to pin down which terminals will have thunderstorms, but west to east motion will favor terminals other than BTV mainly due to the stabilizing influence of Lake Champlain. Lake Breeze is setting up along the west shore of Lake Champlain given the heat, so a few TS could fire along the lake breeze front this afternoon potentially impacting PBG. Overnight MPV stands the best chance at seeing some fog, but PBG could get some as well should heavier rain showers or a thunderstorm occur. Deep moisture favors lowering/thickening CIGs tomorrow east of the Greens, so EFK/MPV could have MVFR CIGs after sunrise. Shower chances increase after 12Z with thunderstorm chances increasing after 16Z. Widely scattered showers are anticipated. Outlook... Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Boyd NEAR TERM...Boyd SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Boyd