####018003010#### FXUS65 KGGW 161935 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 135 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Lows tonight will be near freezing along the ND and parts of the Canadian border. - Next large rain system looks to arrive Sunday afternoon and remains over the area through Monday night. Heaviest rain is expected to be south of the Missouri River. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Strong northern plains cyclone that brought 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over far eastern Montana now moving east. Sunshine with less wind has greeted the western zones this afternoon with the eastern zones experiencing dry conditions but the wind remains rather stiff. Winds will diminish rather quickly this evening allowing the temps to drop as well, especially where skies can clear. This looks to occur most likely over the eastern zones. This should allow temps in these areas and along the Canadian border to drop close to freezing. Quasi-zonal flow in place Saturday should allow for a mostly dry day Saturday but some showers are possible over the western zones. An upper trough will begin digging into the central Rockies Saturday Night that will push a rain shield northeast into the CWA Sunday. Unfortunately, it looks to bring rain to mainly the western zones, not in the Glasgow area where it's needed most. The heaviest rain looks to occur Sunday night. By Tuesday, some areas along and west of a Malta to Jordan line could end up with rain totals between 1 and 2 inches. The position of the upper trough that cuts off over the central Rockies Monday will determine if the above rain area gets nudged a bit. Weak systems will bring a few chances for light showers Tuesday and beyond. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: With the impacts of a freeze potential tonight, went a bit below NBM for temperatures. Fog is a possibility late tonight over the eastern zones given the recent rainfall, light winds and partly cloudy skies. The rest of the forecast closely followed the NBM, but did trim pops in some areas given the current drought, hoping to save face with our partners and public. TFJ && .AVIATION... UPDATED: 1930z FLIGHT CAT RANGE: Mainly VFR. MVFR ceilings/clouds are moving into ND this afternoon. There is a very slight chance of fog formation late tonight at KSDY KGDV and KOLF, otherwise VFR conditions will continue through Saturday. NW winds will diminish into the evening then light tonight and Saturday morning. SE winds will increase Saturday afternoon. OUTLOOK: Next system to move in Sunday with increasing E-SE winds and rain. TFJ && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow ####018007440#### FXUS64 KEWX 161936 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory remains in effect through early evening for portions of South Central Texas. - The heat continues on Saturday with elevated heat index values over portions of South Central Texas. - Low chances for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening and Saturday afternoon/evening. The hot weather conditions continue across South Central Texas with highs in the upper 80s across the Hill Country and lower to mid 90s elsewhere as of 2 PM CDT. Heat indexes are ranging from mid to upper 90s with a few locations at 100-103 across the Hill Country and from 100 to 107 range over the coastal plains and the southern part of the Rio Grande. Expect these values to increase as we hit the heating peak time frame sometime between 4 and 6 PM CDT. With that said, heat index values are likely to reach the 106 to 111 range over areas included in the Heat Advisory. Other than the heat, we have a slight chance for an isolated or two strong to severe storms to develop across the Llano, Burnet, and Williamson Counties late this afternoon ahead of the dryline (warm and moist sector). If they do develop, they could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. As the evening progresses, increased moisture in the form of clouds spreads across the local area with overnight lows in the lower to upper 70s. Patchy fog is expected to develop across the coastal plains as early as midnight and then pushes to the northwest toward the I-35 corridor. Saturday starts warm with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, however, by noon time, partly cloudy skies should dominate most locations of South Central Texas. By noon time, temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s. Another hot day is in store with maximum highs expected to reach the mid to upper 90s across most areas and from 100 to 105 along the Rio Grande. With dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 60s to lower 70s along and east of the I-35 corridor and the southern part of the Rio Grande, can't rule out heat index values ranging from 106 to 108 across the coastal plains and up to 111 across portions of the southern portion of the Rio Grande. We are holding off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Saturday at this time. Future weather forecast packages may include a Heat Advisory using latest model guidance. Just continue to exercise heat safety measures. Saturday could look different across the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and the Hill Country as strong to severe thunderstorms develop ahead of the dryline and couple of upper level pulses of energy arriving in the afternoon and early evening. These storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. The activity likely lingers through the middle evening period. Between the rain and cool pool of these storms, overnight lows across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country are forecasted to drop to the upper 60s with the rest of the local area in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures continue Sunday through Tuesday with risk of heat-related impacts - Low chances (10-20%) for showers and storms late Monday afternoon and evening and on Tuesday - Temperatures closer to normal Wednesday and Thursday Dry conditions are forecast Sunday and Sunday night for most areas, with the exception of a low (10-20%) chance of isolated late afternoon and evening storms along the dry line across the northwest Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. The dry line advances farther east on Monday afternoon, tapping into better moisture, producing low chances (10-20%) of isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor. The dry line retreats back west late Monday night, then a shortwave moving through the southern Plains sends the dry line back east into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor Tuesday, with a cold front overtaking it Tuesday night. Low confidence in timing and chances of convection with these features, and we are currently sticking close to the NBM 20% chances of showers and storms along and east of I-35/I-37 Tuesday. Above average temperatures continue Sunday and through Tuesday, with elevated heat indices east of the dry line. There is lower confidence in the strength of the front and temperatures behind it Wednesday and Thursday, but we have trended high temperatures cooler than the NBM. This puts high temperatures close to, or slightly above, normals for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the local area terminals through shortly after midnight tonight (07Z/08Z). Then, MVFR cigs develop afterward and remain through 16z Saturday for the I-35 sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). KDRT stays VFR through the forecast period for now. Latest updates, may include lower cigs as isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecasted to affect parts of the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country including KDRT and KAUS late Saturday afternoon into the evening. East to southerly winds prevail through the forecast period with speeds of 6 to 12 knots and gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon and once again on Saturday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY (* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN) FRI SAT SUN MON 05/16 05/17 05/18 05/19 ---------------------------------------------- AUS 97/2018* 97/2018 97/2022 97/2006 ATT 99/2022* 99/2022 98/2022 98/2022* SAT 97/2022* 100/2022 101/2022 101/1989 DRT 107/2013 105/2013 107/2024 108/2020 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 95 74 98 / 10 20 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 96 74 97 / 10 20 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 97 74 98 / 10 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 74 94 72 95 / 20 30 30 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 100 79 103 / 10 30 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 95 72 96 / 10 30 30 10 Hondo Muni Airport 74 98 73 99 / 10 10 20 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 73 98 / 10 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 93 75 95 / 0 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 98 76 98 / 10 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 99 76 100 / 10 10 20 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop- Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe- Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Medina-Travis-Uvalde-Wilson-Zavala. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...76 Aviation...17 ####018005324#### FXUS64 KOHX 161938 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 238 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 225 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - A few discrete storms will be possible across areas along and north of I-65 this afternoon. The main weather threat will be large hail and winds. This will be ahead of the front and more widespread severe weather. - A dynamic weather system will bring the potential for all modes of severe weather to Middle Tennessee this evening through 2 am Saturday morning. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. - Unsettled weather continues into the weekend, though the severe threat will be low. && .UPDATE... Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Latest soundings show Middle Tennessee is highly unstable with little to no cap aloft. Instability values have soared behind this morning's activity with CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg. Dew points are well into the 70s at most locations and bulk shear values are near 60 kts. We continue to monitor the potential for discrete cell development ahead of the line. We are fortunately missing the forcing needed to spark storms this afternoon, and the hope is that continues. Given how highly unstable we are, it would not take much of a push to get something going. If a storm does develop, it will turn severe in a hurry and pose a significant large hail and tornado threat. Remain weather aware! As for the main line of thunderstorms tonight, confidence is high in timing and impacts. Timing remains 8PM-2AM for Middle TN and there is high confidence in significant winds occuring with the line (65+ mph). Large hail and tornadoes along the leading edge of the line remain a concern as well. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The earlier severe watch has been allowed to expire. There were a couple of storms that became perky. The CAMS are showing the possibility of a few discrete storms this afternoon. The main threat with these discrete storms will be wind and hail. The stronger storms will be with the line of storms this evening and into the overnight hours. Please see previous AFD for the details. Highlights...the discrete storms will form into a line most likely entering the northwest forecast area between 8 to 10 pm. Nashville Metro entering around 10 to midnight. Exiting the Cumberland Plateau around 2 to 3 am. This will be a fast moving line. All forms of severe weather will be possible from winds to 70 mph...large hail...and tornadoes. Since the storms will be moving so fast flooding is not a first level concern unless there are some training storms. As mentioned previously...now is the time to make sure preparations are in place. Make sure your friends and family are aware too and have multiple ways of receiving warnings. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1135 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Unsettled weather will still be possible next week. There is a marginal risk (1/5) on Sunday as a warm front moves north across middle TN. A low moves out New Mexico/Colorado with a warm front that will meander around the southeast US Sunday through Wednesday. Being spring time...afternoon and evening strong to marginally severe storms will be possible. Thursday will be "best" weather day with the lowest chance for rain. Temperatures for the long term will be highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MVFR cigs are gradually clearing out of the area with spotty showers still on radar. For the remainder of this afternoon, the potential is there for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop. If they do, they will pose a significant threat for large hail and tornadoes. Confidence in isolated storm development and their location is low. Tonight, a line of severe thunderstorms will develop across the northwest and move southeast through the entire mid state region. As the line approaches, low-level wind shear will increase at 2kft between 45-50 kts. For the line, TEMPO groups are in at each terminal for best window of timing. Significant wind gusts of 70+ mph will be possible. Periods of MVFR to IFR vis/cig will be possible upon impact. Winds will shift SSW behind the line with gradual clearing of clouds overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 88 66 85 / 90 0 20 50 Clarksville 65 84 63 82 / 80 0 20 30 Crossville 62 80 60 79 / 90 0 10 40 Columbia 66 87 65 83 / 80 0 20 60 Cookeville 64 82 61 80 / 90 0 10 40 Jamestown 62 82 58 79 / 90 0 10 30 Lawrenceburg 66 86 64 82 / 80 0 20 60 Murfreesboro 67 87 64 83 / 90 0 20 50 Waverly 64 84 63 82 / 90 0 20 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Baggett SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION.....Baggett ####018004622#### FXUS63 KDVN 161938 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 238 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southwest to west winds into this evening, peaking near advisory criteria at 40 - 45 mph. Potential also for isolated showers and storms (very low coverage) which could produce localized wind gusts over 50 mph. - Active weather returns early next week. Highest chances (60-80%) are focused Monday and Tuesday where widespread beneficial soaking rain appears likely. Confidence on any severe weather threat is low. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A strong surface low over northern Minnesota (988 mb) will maintain a tight pressure gradient across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois into this evening, so we can expect a continuation of strong southwest to west winds. Frequent gusts around 40 mph are anticipated, and occasional 45+ mph gusts are possible especially in the vicinity of any isolated showers/storms. Have held off on a Wind Advisory with most of the area holding below criteria so far this afternoon. However, we have already been messaging the potential for 40+ mph gusts with an area-wide SPS through this evening. Today's post-frontal airmass is comfortably dry compared to yesterday with afternoon dewpoints only in the 40s. It's still warm though with 2 PM temperatures ranging from the upper 70s in the north to lower to upper 80s for central and southern sections. There's still a potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop along a southwest to west wind shift moving through this afternoon and evening. CAMs vary on the coverage, but current thinking is at best around 20% coverage with much of the area likely to stay dry. SPC mesoanalysis has DCAPE values already approaching 1000 J/kg for areas along and east of the Mississippi River. Therefore strong wind gusts would likely accompany any showers/storms that form, which is further supported by large inverted-V profiles on CAM soundings. Since significant green-up of vegetation and area grasses has already occurred this spring the fire weather threat should be muted through this evening. Nonetheless, given the strong gusty winds, dry conditions, and low humidity around 20-25%, outdoor burning is strongly discouraged. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Low pressure will continue to slowly shift across the Great Lakes region this weekend. This will keep the area in cyclonic flow with breezy conditions for Saturday and cooler, more seasonable highs from the mid/upper 60s to the mid 70s. Sunday, the low will be far enough to allow for surface high pressure to build in bringing much lighter winds with temperatures moderating back into the 70s areawide. Early week the pattern looks very conducive for widespread soaking rains, as a smorgasbord of energy dumps into the western CONUS that then translates eastward forming a closed low moving slowly over the Midwest. This would allow ample Gulf moisture to become entrained with EC and GFS deterministic models depicting PWATs over 1.4 to 1.5 inches, which according to SPC sounding climatology would be well above the 90th percentile and near climatological max for all DVN raobs for the dates of May 19/20th. This would be a beneficial rain for most, which based on the strength of forcing has the potential to match the PWAT and accumulate at least 1-2 inches between Monday and Tuesday, but with a slow moving system and lingering moist conveyor locally higher amounts would seem plausible. The severe weather potential remains low confidence given the anticipation of widespread rain and cloud cover. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Windy conditions are forecast through the period, with peak winds expected this afternoon through this evening, where 30-35 kts wind gusts will be common from the west southwest. Otherwise, VFR / clear skies will eventually fill in with some stratus later this evening, with bases of 3000-3500 ft. This windy mostly cloudy weather will linger on into Saturday, remaining VFR in most locations/times. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...McClure/Uttech AVIATION...Ervin ####018009863#### FXUS61 KAKQ 161940 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 340 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through late this evening. Warm temperatures are again expected on Saturday with low-end chances for storms near the coast. High pressure briefly returns for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures cool down and conditions become unsettled into the middle of next week as an upper level low pressure system develops west of the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible between 4-9 PM across the entire area. The main threat with this is damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, with a low-end threat for large hail and/or a brief tornado. - A second round of storms is possible after 2-3 AM tonight, which could pose a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts. However, this is highly uncertain and depends on the evolution of the initial round of storms. The flow aloft remains WSW late this morning as upper ridging slowly pushes to our east. A prominent upper low (stacked atop strong sfc low pressure) continues to spin over the Upper Midwest. Still no prominent surface features nearby, with a cold front still well to our NW and high pressure well offshore to our SE. Dry/very war, wx continues with temps around 90F and mid 60s-lower 70s dew pts, but am watching strong to severe tstms across SW Virginia. In addition, a few severe storms have formed near the MD/DE border that are exhibiting supercellular characteristics. The environment is characterized by steep low/mid-level lapse rates, strong instability (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt effective shear (mainly speed shear as hodographs are mostly straight). Strong to severe storms may impact the MD Eastern Shore during the next couple of hours. Otherwise, we're watching the convection in western VA which is expected to reach the Piedmont by 4-5 PM. This is the main area of convection that we'll be watching for potential severe wx. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the entire area until 03z/11 PM to account for the threat. There are still uncertainties with respect to convective coverage later this aftn/this evening. But consensus (as well as upstream trends) show that at least a broken line of tstms will cross the CWA from west to east between 4 PM and 9 PM. This is also supported by the WoFS This solution is shown by most of the incoming 12z/16 CAMs. Given the environmental parameters mentioned above (which are much more favorable for severe wx than we typically see in the Mid- Atlantic), the main threat will be for severe wind gusts (potentially to 70 mph). Large hail will also be possible (have seen reports of 1.75" hail just to our north). Can't rule out a brief tornado as well, but a lack of directional shear will mitigate the tornado threat. There will likely be a break in the storms late this evening-early tonight before a second round of storms potentially approaches early Sat AM (after 2-3 AM). However, these will be weakening as they approach but will pose a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts. Also, if the first round comes through as advertised, this will act to stabilize the environment and thus further lessen the threat for additional severe wind early Sat AM. Have raised PoPs to ~50% through the evening to account for increased confidence in the first round of convection and will maintain chc PoPs later tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for the entire area. Lows tonight should be very reminiscent of summer and range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Very warm Saturday with a slight chance of thunderstorms across SE VA and NE NC. - Drying out later Saturday into Sunday behind a cold front. Another hot day is ahead for Saturday ahead of a cold front as morning convection should dissipate by 6-9 AM. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with the warmest temps across the SE. The main change in the forecast for Saturday is the waning confidence in severe wx (and also convective initiation during the aftn) as winds become west and dew pts fall during the aftn (especially inland). Will keep 20% PoPs across SE VA/NE NC to account for additional tstm development between 2-8 PM. There will still likely be a highly conditional severe threat across the SE given strong sfc heating and still decent shear in place. Of course, confidence is low regarding any sort of convective initiation. Given this, SPC has maintained a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal) severe weather risk near the coast. The main threat would again be damaging winds, with large hail also possible. With drier air filtering in behind the front Saturday night, expect cooler low temps in the lower to mid 60s. Still quite warm for Sunday/Monday as only modest cold advection occurs behind the front. Highs in the lower to mid 80s both days, warmest across the S and SE and coolest on the Eastern Shore. Overnight lows Sun night drop into the 50s inland and lower 60s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday through Thursday. - Below average temperatures return by late next week and likely last into next weekend. Unsettled wx returns for the mid to late week period as an upper level low is progged to track from the Midwest to the east coast from Tuesday through Thursday, before slowly exiting to the NE by Friday/Friday night. While the specifics remain unclear with differences among the deterministic guidance, Tuesday night- Wednesday looks like the wettest period, with a drying trend expected by Thu as cooler air filters in from the NW. With the increased precipitation chances, temperatures trend cooler...and likely below seasonal norms...by Wednesday and Thursday. Below normal temperatures remain favored through the end of the week and looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Friday... VFR conditions prevail at the terminals this afternoon with SCT cumulus. However, scattered showers/tstms (some strong to severe with brief gusts to 50 kt) across western VA will track toward the area and potentially impact the terminals between 21-02z. Will maintain PROB30 groups at all of the terminals for a 3-4 hour window and will amend as needed if it is clear that a storm is approaching. There will likely be a break in the storms from 02-07z. A complex of storms will form well to our west and weaken as it approaches early Saturday morning. However, this second round of convection may impact the area (especially RIC/SBY) between 07-12z. Will have VCSH for now given low confidence. Additional showers/storms will remain possible into early Saturday morning. Breezy on Sat with W-WSW winds of 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Isolated showers and storms are possible near the coast Saturday afternoon, but PoPs are only ~20%. Outlook...Prevailing VFR conditions are expected over the weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Generally sub-SCA conditions into the weekend, but with elevated SW flow ahead of a cold front Saturday, and elevated NW flow behind the front Sunday-Monday. - Locally strong to severe storms possible later this afternoon into tonight. Early this morning, a nearly stationary front is draped over the northern Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters. South of the front, winds are generally out of the S to SW, ranging from 5 to 10 knots. Along/north of the front, winds are generally light and variable. Seas range from 2 to 3 feet (locally up to 4 feet across the far southern coastal waters) and waves in the bay are running around 1 foot or less. The front gradually lifts north today, with S to SW winds increasing to ~10 to 15 knots later this morning into tonight. Scattered showers and storms are again possible later this afternoon into tonight, with some of these storms potentially being strong to severe. Still looking at the potential for a brief period of elevated, near SCA SW winds Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across the lower James and lower bay. Winds veer around to the W/NW later Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of a passing cold front. Next chance for SCA level winds comes with a secondary surge of cooler, drier air Sunday night into Monday, though this remains uncertain at this range. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Flood Warnings continue along the James River, at Richmond- Westham, and Richmond Locks have crested, but will remain in minor flood stage through Friday night. See water.noaa.gov for more site- specific information. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-636>638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...ERI/SW LONG TERM...ERI/SW AVIATION...ERI MARINE...AJB/LKB HYDROLOGY...AKQ