####018006280#### FXUS63 KDTX 161944 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 344 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are likely again early tonight. The potential exists for storms to become strong to severe between 9 pm and 1 am, capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. - Cooler conditions this weekend, with westerly wind gusts 30 to 40 mph on Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Southeast Michigan holding position late this afternoon immediately downstream of a closed mid level pivoting across Wisconsin. A warm but drier profile now entrenched, with a brief window of deeper stability in residence now evident by a simply a limited coverage of diurnal cu. Dry and stable conditions to hold through at least 00z, with attention tonight shifting to a mid level perturbation shearing out ahead of the main height fall center. Noted increase in forced ascent attendant to this feature set to sweep across the local area 01z-07z. Renewed boundary layer moistening will commence at the same time, offering at least a weakly unstable low level environment. Mixed signal yet across the model solution space on possible degree of destabilization, with variability noted in dewpoint recovery by as much as 8-10 degrees. This will impact both prospective coverage and vigor of any convective development within this window. Assuming the upward vertical motion field can overcome residual capping issues, then potential exists for cells to attain greater updraft depth given very steep mid level lapse rates. Background wind field more than sufficient to offer organization to any vigorous updrafts. This conditional setup carries enough potential should greater instability materialize to warrant an upgrade in the Day 1 SPC outlook to a slight risk for southern portions of the area, highlighting a damaging wind gust and hail threat. A secondary window exists for sub-severe convective development with the actual cold frontal passage late tonight. Mid level low offers greater influence on conditions to start the weekend, with the circulation center passing thru northern lower MI during the daylight hours Saturday. Cold front exits to the east Saturday morning, with ensuing cold air advection battling daytime heating throughout the day. Minimal thermal recovery expected off morning lows. Temperatures parked in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Notably breezy conditions as mixing capitalizes on a firm west- southwest gradient. Gusts in excess of 30 mph Saturday afternoon. Moist cyclonic flow engaging daytime heating will maintain a chance of showers. Seasonably cool conditions persist Sunday under deeper layer northwest flow. Aside from a broad, thicker diurnal stratocu field, generally benign weather conditions to finish the weekend as general subsidence takes control. Cooler and drier profile maintains residence Monday as low level northeast flow governs conditions under building high pressure from the north. A high amplitude, slowly evolving large scale pattern emerges for the midweek period. Southeast Michigan likely holds position between the high to the north and organizing low pressure to the west. Potentially unsettled conditions at times this period, depending the pace and trajectory of the closed low. Maintenance of east flow with prospective cloud/shower potential on the rise will keep temperatures on the cooler side of average through the rest of the week. && .MARINE... Low pressure tracks over Lake Superior this evening sweeping a respectable cold front late this evening. A broken line of showers and storms likely develops in advance with isolated embedded strong to severe thunderstorms possible. Moderate west-southwest winds follow Saturday with the strongest winds (20-30kts) expected over the southern half of the region where the gradient is strongest. Small craft advisories have been issued for all nearshore waters daytime Saturday as a result. Low fully departs Sunday shifting winds to the northwest. Gusts peak near 20kts during the day before weakening overnight as weak high pressure slides overhead. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 149 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 AVIATION... Ample dry air noted through most of the column per 16.12Z KDTX RAOB has held onto VFR SKC conditions into the afternoon hours. Coverage of FEW to SCT cumulus now showing up on satellite as the afternoon progresses, along with deepening mixed-layer to around 6 or 7 kft AGL. Expect some occasional gusts of 15-20 knots to mix down during peak heating, otherwise, sub-10 knot surface winds steadily back toward the southeast with time. Monitoring potential for another round (or two) of storms late this evening and overnight with a potent shortwave moving through. In addition to lightning, these storms could produce a brief period of gusty wind, including a microburst or two. Time of arrival and intensity differences still exist from north to south with this convective activity. For DTW/D21 Convection...Potential exists for convection tonight, mainly from 04Z to 07Z. Low chance also exists earlier for the three Metro-area terminals from 02Z to 04Z, prior to the arrival of the main. Dry air aloft lends a gusty wind threat and a non-zero chance for a microburst. THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight, then high Saturday morning and midday. * Moderate in thunderstorms after 02Z tonight. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ421-422- 441>443. Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for LCZ460. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......KDK AVIATION.....KGK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. ####018010434#### FXUS65 KABQ 161946 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 146 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 - Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather this weekend and early next week. Winds will be strongest on Sunday and Monday when gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common, leading to an increased risk of rapid fire spread. - Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will develop over northwestern to north central New Mexico Sunday and Monday with a few thunderstorms also accompanying in the afternoon and early evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Pleasant weather continues this afternoon across northern and central NM with fairly standard afternoon spring breezes persisting into the early evening hours. An upcoming deepening troughing pattern over the western CONUS will begin to take shape tonight into Saturday morning. This will act to eject an opening shortwave trough over NM through the day Saturday. This will increase southwesterly winds over the forecast area Saturday afternoon. Unfortunately this weakening weather system will have near zero precipitation associated with it. Numerical model guidance however is picking up on sufficient mid-level moisture being realized as a few isolated virga showers crossing over south-central and southeastern portions of the forecast area late Saturday morning and afternoon. Forecast soundings from Socorro to Roswell display steep inverted-V signatures, indicative of a good chance these virga showers producing stray and erratic strong wind gusts from Socorro through at least Lincoln County and potentially as far east as De Baca and Chaves County. Otherwise, areas further north will see increased winds and increasing high cirrus cloud coverage. Winds diminish Saturday evening and night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 A sharp upper level trough crossing UT and AZ early Sunday will shift northeastward on Sunday afternoon, driving the upper level jet squarely over NM. Despite cold air advection occurring through the day, strong mixing is still expected. H7 winds of 25 to 35 kt should easily mix to the surface. Additionally, an associated surface low will deepen to near 990mb across eastern CO which will increase the surface pressure gradient across NM. All-in-all, it should be a windy day nearly areawide, though the strongest winds are expected along and east of the Central Mountain Chain where west to southwest gusts up to 45 mph will be common. Localized areas of blowing dust may occur in dust-prone areas, including Roswell. After the initial trough departs late Sunday, another upper low will slide southward across Utah Sunday night, then eastward along the NM/CO border on Monday as it gradually fills. The upper level jet should move over the southern half of NM, thus the strongest winds on Monday should be near and south of I-40. Elsewhere, showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across northern NM. Wetting precipitation will be spotty, but the showers and thunderstorms will help drive a potent Pacific front through the area. Expect gusty winds along and behind the front as it races from northwest to southeast, as well as with any convective activity. High temperatures on Monday will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal across western NM and up to 10 degrees below normal across eastern NM. The upper low will exit the area Monday night, then quieter conditions are expected for the mid week period. The backdoor segment of the front will arrive Monday night and early Tuesday. It should be relatively weak, but will introduce a slight uptick in low level moisture across eastern NM. A stronger push may come Tuesday night, but any moisture intrusion should stay east of the Central Mountain Chain. Upper level flow will be weakening through the period and H5 heights will be rising. Thus, not much wind through the mid week period, and temperatures will climb each day Tuesday through Thursday. All areas should be near to above normal again by Thursday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR prevails all areas as southwesterly winds increase this afternoon. Widespread gusts reaching 15 to 25 kts will be present through the afternoon before diminishing this evening. Southwest winds pick up again late Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RAMPING UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... Southwesterly winds begin to pick up in strength beginning Saturday afternoon while a weakening weather system crosses the state through the day. A few virga showers producing stray and erratic strong gusts across portions of Socorro and Lincoln Counties is on tap tomorrow as well. This, combined with the high confidence for single- digit humidity lasting 6 to 12 hours in the middle Rio Grande Valley along with forecast southwest winds increasing to 20-25 mph sustained will produce several hours of critical fire weather conditions through those areas Saturday afternoon. Critical fire weather conditons continue Sunday as southwesterly winds strengthen further, expanding over western and central portions of the forecast area. Monday sees one more round of critical fire weather conditions, being pushed over southern and eastern portions of NM while cooler and wetter weather advance into northwestern and northern portions of the state. The fire weather threat abates Tuesday as a cold front pushes through eastern NM and temperatures trend down. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 42 79 49 69 / 0 0 0 40 Dulce........................... 30 74 38 64 / 0 0 0 40 Cuba............................ 40 74 43 67 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 33 75 40 68 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 39 72 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 77 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 40 73 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 48 76 45 74 / 0 5 0 0 Datil........................... 42 72 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 36 78 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 38 83 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 34 69 35 58 / 0 0 0 30 Los Alamos...................... 48 73 46 67 / 0 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 44 73 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 71 40 64 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 35 61 35 55 / 0 5 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 30 68 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 35 74 38 68 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 39 73 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 43 81 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 47 74 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 78 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 81 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 82 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 84 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 83 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 42 84 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 84 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 41 83 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 49 84 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 42 83 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 51 79 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 83 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 52 86 49 85 / 0 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 75 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 48 77 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 44 77 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 78 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 43 73 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 46 76 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 45 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 55 78 51 78 / 0 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 73 49 72 / 0 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 41 73 42 72 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 40 78 41 77 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 39 78 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 42 76 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 45 78 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 48 86 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 56 88 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 53 89 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 52 86 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 61 92 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 56 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 54 83 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ106-124. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NMZ106-109-124-125. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...24 ####018009128#### FXUS61 KCLE 161947 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 347 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will track northeast across the Great Lakes tonight, extending a cold front east through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build across the region on Sunday and persist into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main concern in the near term period will be the threat for two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The primary hazards with the first round of storms this afternoon will be large hail, damaging wind gusts, and the potential for a tornado or two, especially. given the anticipated storm mode to be supercellular. The second round this evening will likely feature a mature MCS moving northeast across the Midwest towards the I-77 corridor with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few isolated significant wind gusts exceeding 70 mph. Current satellite imagery indicates a remnant MCV located near west-central OH this afternoon, with agitated cu beginning to develop across North and Northwest OH. The latest SPC mesoanalysis suggests a favorable environment in place for supercells, with 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in place coinciding with strong bulk shear of 50 to 60 knots. Surface observations reveal a tight moisture gradient across the region, with dew points near the lakeshore in the upper 40s, increasing into the low to mid-60s along and south of the US-30 corridor. Do think the primary threat is large hail and damaging winds with any storms that develop this afternoon into the early evening (likely 4-8 PM), though cannot rule out a tornado or two. Attention then turns towards this evening, where current satellite imagery reveals a strong convective complex taking shape across eastern MO and southwest IL this afternoon. The environment ahead of this complex is extremely favorable for damaging wind gusts, with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Hires models differ on if this complex can sustain its strength as it continues northeast into the Lower Great Lakes region by later this evening. If it does, anticipate damaging wind gusts to arrive across the I-75 corridor by around 9 PM, with perhaps some isolated instances of significant wind gusts exceeding 70 mph possible. This complex should weaken as it moves east and encounters a less favorable environment near the I-71/77 corridors by around 11 PM to midnight. A cold front will sweep east through the area Saturday morning and afternoon, ushering in a significant pattern change across the region. Could see some redevelopment along the cold front, particularly along and east of the I-77 corridor early Saturday afternoon, though not anticipating any severe storms at this time. It may feel a bit blustery Saturday afternoon behind the front, with temperatures falling into the low 60s and westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Drier air will continue to filter into the region Sunday as the closed mid/upper low drifts east through the New England states allowing strong surface high pressure centered near Hudson Bay to build ridging southward into the Lower Great Lakes. A few isolated showers and overcast skies could linger in far NE Ohio and NW PA Sunday morning before the increased ridging allows for mostly sunny and dry conditions areawide by afternoon. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be unseasonably cool as mid/upper troughing remains across the Great Lakes, with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s in far NE Ohio and NW PA and mid 60s to around 70 elsewhere. The surface ridge and trough aloft will continue through Monday, so unfortunately for those wanting a warm up, temperatures will remain cool for awhile. Highs Monday are only expected to reach the upper 50s to low 60s again in far NE Ohio and NW PA and low to mid 60s elsewhere. Lows Sunday night will dip into the mid 40s to low 50s, with more widespread 40s possible Monday night depending on how quickly clouds and scattered showers can start to creep northeastward ahead of another closed low in the Mid Mississippi Valley. Patchy frost is possible in NW PA Monday night where skies should remain clear longer, so this will need to be monitored. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The big story of the extended will be a continuation of below normal temperatures as an increasingly amplified pattern develops across North America, characterized by strengthening west coast mid/upper ridging and deepening central and eastern U.S. mid/upper troughing. This will keep temperatures a solid 10-15 degrees below normal Tuesday through Friday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 40s. The cool pattern will continue beyond the 7-day forecast into late May. The precipitation forecast Tuesday through the end of the week is a little more uncertain due to timing uncertainties with the aforementioned Mid Mississippi Valley closed low ejecting across the Ohio Valley region. As mid/upper shortwave energy drops through the Great Lakes Monday night through Wednesday and deepens the longwave trough, the closed low will attempt to phase with the trough. This will eventually result in a deep closed low and cold pool aloft pinwheeling overhead late in the week, but how and when it phases will determine the timing and track of the best moisture and forcing. The overall message is that rain chances will increase Tuesday into Wednesday, with decent coverage of showers possible mid to late week making things cool and unsettled. Not the best news as Memorial Day Weekend approaches. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/... VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with primarily VFR to persist through the TAF period. Two main periods of concern for the TAF sites; one being this afternoon and evening as isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along a warm front with large hail being the primary hazard. The highest confidence for TAF impacts in this round of storms would be primarily along and east of the I-71 corridor. The second period is later this evening, generally along and west of the I-71 corridor where a line of storms may arrive into Northwest Ohio. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 50 knots would be the primary hazard in this case. A cold front will cross from west to east through the area Saturday morning and early afternoon. Could see some redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms along the cold front, particularly along and east of the I-77 corridor. Winds are variable early this afternoon, with light north to northwest flow ahead of the warm front, 5 knots or less, and strengthening flow out of the south behind the warm front, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will abruptly shift to the southwest and west behind a cold front late Saturday morning and early afternoon, 15 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings across the eastern half of the area on Sunday. Mainly VFR is expected Monday and Tuesday. Non-VFR is likely to return on Wednesday in widespread showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds and waves on Lake Erie this evening and tonight, but otherwise, the next period of elevated winds and waves will come Saturday into Sunday as strong cold air advection encourages good mixing. SW winds of 10-20 knots tonight will turn WSW behind a cold front Saturday morning and increase to 15-25 knots. This will build waves of 3 to 5 feet, so issued Small Craft Advisories starting Saturday morning. The winds and waves will gradually subside Saturday night, but it will take until Sunday morning to end in the central and eastern basins, so ran the advisories longer there. Winds will turn NW and decrease to 5-10 knots Sunday afternoon then N at 5-15 knots Sunday night and Monday. A period of strong NE winds of 15-25 knots is possible Monday night through midweek as a slow moving closed low approaches from the Mid Mississippi Valley and an upper level trough deepens across the Great Lakes. This will likely require another round of Small Craft Advisories. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>145. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146-147. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ148-149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...Garuckas ####018002450#### FXUS65 KMSO 161948 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 148 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Wet system to bring moderate precipitation rates Saturday night into Sunday - Mountain pass level snow Saturday night and Sunday - 10% chance for valley snow down to 3000 feet on Sunday Little has changed in the forecast through Saturday. The primary focus remains on the approaching low pressure system Saturday night through Sunday. Model guidance is converging on the storm track, with increasing confidence in a lowering snow level and greater moisture availability. Snow is likely to impact higher elevations, including Lolo Pass, Lost Trail, and Gilmore Summit. Those planning mountain travel or backcountry trips this weekend should be prepared for winter-like conditions. While this system doesn’t show the same heavy snow signal as the May 2024 storm, it could still produce wet snow capable of breaking branches or damaging powerlines. Similar setups have a tendency to drop snow levels lower than expected, bringing a low (10-20%) chance of valley accumulations. Snow impacts may linger along the Divide into Monday morning as the system exits east. With abundant moisture, patchy fog is possible Monday and Tuesday mornings. A cool, showery pattern continues into Wednesday, followed by a warming trend later next week. && .AVIATION...Showers are expected at KGPI and KMSO this afternoon. With showers in the vicinity of any terminal today there is a potential for wind shift and gusts up to 20 kts. KGPI may again have fog in the vicinity causing reductions in visibility or ceilings after 17/0600z through 17/1400z. A wet system is forecast to affect the Northern Rockies airspace beginning around 18/0600z. All terminals are expected to experience reduced ceilings and visibilities, with KMSO, KHRF, KGPI, and KBTM potentially experiencing moderate to heavy precipitation. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains. ID...Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for Eastern Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. && $$ ####018009168#### FXUS63 KEAX 161948 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 248 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Quiet, very pleasant Saturday * Active pattern ramps up Sunday, continues into Wednesday - Strong to severe storms possible each of Sunday night/overnight, Monday, and Tuesday. - Greatest severe storm chances currently appear Monday - Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall may lead to overland and river flooding concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 After a few elevated showers this morning passed through NE Missouri and into Iowa, skies largely cleared out behind a passing compact shortwave and gave way to a pretty comfortable day across the area. With surface boundary, primarily a dry line, situated over SE Missouri, dew points remained abundantly pleasant, in the 40s to low 50s deg F and aided in keeping skies mostly clear. Some mid-higher level cloud cover wrapping around the closed low over Minnesota arrived this afternoon over NW/N Missouri, but should stay largely relegated north of I-70, if not Highway 36, and more scattered in nature. Main, if any, consequence there is slightly cooler highs in the upper 70s vs lower 80s elsewhere. Of greater note though, breezy conditions across the area, especially N/NW where surface pressure gradient is strongest. Deep boundary layer mixing has too aided in periodic wind gusts into the low to mid 30s mph, which will continue into the early if not mid-evening hours before some easing. Pressure gradient remains tight enough overnight to for sustained winds greater than 10mph along/north of I-70 and occasional gusts to the upper teens/20mph before further easing Saturday morning. Still expected to see fair degree of nocturnal cooling with amply dry air and CAA ongoing, upper 40s/low 50s low temps Saturday morning. Saturday itself remains expected to be a fantastic day by virtually all standards with surface high influence keeping skies clear and easing winds, comfortable dew points, and forecast highs largely in the 70s. As we work into Sunday, little has changed with regard to the expected large scale pattern transition to a much more active stance. First western CONUS mid-upper shortwave digs toward/into the desert SW, pushing ridging/height rises across the central CONUS and inducing Lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains and Colorado Front Range. Locally, this will see a warm front begin to march northward Sunday and the beginnings of a prolonged period of strong theta-e/WAA/moisture advection (really however you want to reference it). Expectation remains for showers and non-severe thunderstorms to be associated with this northward marching warm front Sunday. While there are ingredients in place for potential stronger/severe storm or two Sunday afternoon/evening, fair amount of capping and storm motions parallel to the frontal boundary limit potential. Instead, if boundary is slow to work northward, training activity may prime the pump, so to speak, for future hydrologic threats with additional rounds of activity expected thru Tuesday. Current synoptic guidance depictions suggest warm front to only reach around I-70/Highway 36 corridors during the daytime/early evening hours. By the latter evening and into the overnight, initial western CONUS mid-upper wave attempts to work off the Rockies, deepening and pushing associated surface low eastward toward the CO/NE/KS shared border area. Increasing wind fields and overall lift/dynamics will yield explosive convection and likely severe/supercellular activity. While well westward, this activity too is expected to grow upscale into an MCS and may affect the forecast area during the late evening and overnight hours. Potential MUCAPE depictions >1500 J/kg and strong wind fields may yield a continuing/ongoing wind threat, but is anticipated to be on a weakening trend as it outruns stronger instability. This 'could' be the first hydrologic threat potential depending on overlap over greatest preceding Sunday rainfall amounts. GFS/GEFS is notably further N/NE with this Sunday/Sunday night activity vs the Euro and its ensemble, something to watch. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to depict a secondary shortwave dropping into the desert SW by Monday. As it does so, it prevents initial/leading shortwave from completely ejecting into the Plains. Instead pulling it back westward and instigating Fujiwara- like action. This will keep warm/moist southerly flow ongoing over the area and continue to moisten up the region. PWats >1.70" are widely depicted among guidance by Monday, which would put it well above 90th percentile via SPC Sounding Climatology page for TOP and toward maximums for this time of the year. With some eastward movement of the broader western trough and negative tilt, dynamics become such that Monday afternoon/evening remains the forecast area's best opportunity for severe storms during this active stretch. The broader details within the warm sector, SB/MUCAPE >2500 J/kg, 0-6km bulk shear >40-50kts, moderate to steep mid level lapse rates, warm front and dry line boundaries nearby, LCLs <1 km all suggest all modes of severe weather may be in play. Certainly large (possibly very large) hail and damaging winds. Tornadic activity may be a bit more suspect and dependent on warm frontal boundary to enhance low level rotation in otherwise questionable hodographs within the warm sector. GFS/GEFS and Euro oriented AI/Machine Learning/Analogues continue highlight Monday with our greatest potential, though of note they have ticked upward over the western forecast area with regards to Sunday night/overnight. Hydrologic threat potentially builds during this time frame should areas that see moderate to heavy rainfall be similar to previous opportunities from Sunday and Sunday overnight. Bolstered by efficient rainfall potential with warm cloud layer depths approaching 4km and GFS/Euro ensembles and NBM all broadly depict 50th to 90th percentile QPF spreads of roughly 1.75" to 4" thru Monday overnight. Take away too being the potential for locally greater rainfall amounts given convective nature that is difficult to grasp within synoptic models. With some of the question into overlapping moderate/heavy rainfall, WPC EROs continue to depict Slight risks over the Days 3-5 (Sun-Tue) time frames. Details continue to hash out, but certainly no reason to let guard down for Monday afternoon/evening at this point in time. A strong/severe threat lingers into Tuesday as the western trough/dueling shortwaves gradually work into the central to northern High Plains. Much may depend on how Monday shakes out with regards to lingering boundaries, cloud cover, etc as a good portion of the area appears poised to remain within the warm sector. However, this is also where guidance begins to diverge in its handling of the mid-upper low evolution and track, let alone surface details. Risk does appear to slide eastward overall though, limiting chances for western forecast area (incl KC Metro) to see third day of strong/severe threat. Large scale pattern evolution through the early-mid week time frame does also take on an Omega block appearance, further slowing down the exit and drying out of the region. As the western portion of the block continues to gradually drift eastward, consensus is for it to undercut mid-upper level ridging and become absorbed and aide in the retrograde and development/re-development of a closed mid-upper low system over the Great Lakes. This will eventually push a cold frontal boundary and drier air through the region, but possibly not before an additional few showers pass with front. This too likely pushes temperatures well below normal for a day or two, possibly into upper 50s/60s && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Main concern through the TAF period will revolve around windy conditions. Winds will be stronger/strongest as you work northward toward the Iowa and Nebraska border areas. As a result, KSTJ may see periodic wind gusts this afternoon into the mid if not upper 30s mph. The 3 metro sites too will be gusty, but more toward the upper 20s to low 30s mph. Sustained winds around or greater than 20 mph at KSTJ and more toward 15 to 20 mph for the metro sites. Throughout this time, any cloud cover well within VFR ranges. Winds ease some overnight, but remain up with occasional gusts approaching 20mph possible overnight before further easing tomorrow/Saturday. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Curtis