####018005910#### FXUS61 KBGM 161950 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 350 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will persist through Saturday. Cooler weather with a few lingering showers is expected on Sunday. Drier, mostly sunny but cool weather is then expected heading into early next week. Another low pressure system looks to bring additional rain chances by middle to latter portion of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 350 PM Update: After this morning's widespread showers and thunderstorms, the atmosphere has had a difficult time destabilizing, despite some breaks of sunshine this afternoon. The majority of the convection is located well south of the area (mainly across Central PA to the Mid-Atlantic coast). There is still some elevated instability across the area, but with mid-level dry air inhibiting convective initiation, coverage of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon into this evening is not expected to be widespread and the threat for severe thunderstorms is lowering, but not totally gone. Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue (at least in the evening) with some elevated instability present. However, lapse rates will be weakening, which will limit any severe thunderstorm potential. Coverage of showers will likely diminish towards the second half of the night. It will remain mild and humid with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. While there is still a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday, the overall potential is decreasing and therefore most of our region is now in a "Marginal Risk" for severe thunderstorms, rather than a "Slight Risk." This is due to relatively poor instability and lapse rates. There will be slightly higher lapse rates across our far eastern areas (Catskills-Mohawk Valley), so this is where the best chance for severe thunderstorms will be. That being said, it is looking more likely that most of the severe thunderstorms will be located well north and east of our area, more across New England. Otherwise, skies will be partly sunny on Saturday with highs in the lower 70s to near 80. Flow becomes more westerly behind the cold front Saturday night, which will result in some wrap-around/cold air advection showers, mainly across the Finger Lakes Region. Otherwise, it will become much cooler with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM Update... Unsettled conditions will continue on Sunday with scattered showers as upper level low slowly exits to the northeast. Cool northwest flow on the backside of the low will make for a chilly and blustery day for mid May, with highs on Sunday only in the mid 50s to low 60s. As this system moves east of the region Sunday night, northwest flow will continue to advect cool air southward, however, ridging ridging aloft will also be building in, so the showers will be coming to an end. Lows on Sunday night will be in the low 40s for most of the region and a few of the coldest spots may drop into the upper 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 230 PM Update... Dry but cool conditions are in store for next week as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region, and cool northwest flow remains overhead. Temperatures will be below normal throughout the long term period. Winds will remain breezy Monday as with a tight pressure gradient as high pressure builds in. Patchy frost will be possible Monday night/early Tuesday morning as temperatures plummet under mostly clear skies and calming winds. Dry conditions will continue through at least Tuesday as guidance has slowed down the arrival of the next system. Another upper level low will move into the Great Lakes region Wednesday with a surface low developing off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This system will bring widespread rain to the region Wednesday and Wednesday night with rain then continuing Thursday. It is interesting that the GFS is showing T850 below 0C Wednesday night and T850 below -2C Thursday night into Friday. Still a long ways out, but most of the models and ensembles are in agreement for another cold upper low for the end of the long term period, so at least expecting above average precipitation and below average temperatures as we head into Memorial Day weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, which may result in brief MVFR restrictions. If a heavier shower/thunderstorm moves right over a terminal, brief IFR restrictions cannot be ruled out, but confidence was not high enough to include IFR restrictions at this time. Conditions are expected to return to VFR tonight and remain that way through most of the rest of the current TAF period (at least through 18Z Saturday). Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday morning into the afternoon, but confidence was not high enough at this time to include thunder in the TAFs. Outlook... Saturday afternoon...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may result in brief restrictions. Sunday...Scattered rain showers possible, especially at the Central NY terminals, which may result in occasional restrictions. Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. Wednesday...Restrictions likely with rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...BJG ####018007155#### FXUS61 KRNK 161952 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 352 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front extends from the lower Ohio Valley into the central Mid-Atlantic. This front will be the focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through this evening, some of which may be severe. Additional showers and thunderstorms will arrive overnight as a cold front approaches from the Mid-West. Passage of the front will bring clearing Saturday with dry weather for the remainder of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch #261 in effect until 6PM for parts of NW NC, western VA west of the ROA Valley, and southern WV generally south of I-64. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #264 across the remainder of southern VA and northern NC through 11PM. 2) Strong to severe storms expected with potential for large damaging hail. 3) More storms expected overnight as another MCS moves in from KY. Severe winds/hail possible. 18Z RNK sounding says it all with SBCAPE of 4000 j/kg. Capping inversion just above 850 MB is keeping premature deep convection to a minimum, allowing for MCS to take full advantage of the environment. Storms within this environment can/will produce destructive hail, downburst winds and vivid lightning. Storms have been producing just as many positive strikes as they are negative...the positive strikes providing a jolt 10X that of a negative stroke. When the storms crossed the New River Valley, blinding rain and wind reported. We measured a 55kt gust (63mph) here at the NWS office. Per latest SPC discussion, supercells within WW 261 have consolidated into clusters. How this activity evolves east of WW 261 is rather uncertain...but do think high probability for activity to progress east along the VA/NC border all the way to Danville. That said, a new Watch (WW264) has been issued for the foothills and piedmont of southern VA and northern NC (along VA/NC border). Current MCS is expected to exit the CWA this evening, leaving lull or break between yet another MCS that is expected to develop farther upstream across MO and western KY, moving east again, and crossing the southern Appalachians during the overnight. Saturday will feature morning clouds but think westerly winds will bring drying for the afternoon, passage of the cold front bringing an end to the shower/storm threat for the remainder of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Windy conditions during weekend 2) A few small chances of precipitation before another front arrives mid-next week With a cold front passing through this weekend, winds will be northwesterly and considerably gusty along and west of the Blue Ridge. Model guidance suggests sustained winds of 10-15 mph and wind gusts of 25-35 mph. Winds at the highest elevations may be a little stronger due to a low level jet. Winds will calm down by Monday afternoon as the Mid-Atlantic will be in a smaller pressure gradient. Dew points and temperatures will take a small hit but are expected to recover by the middle of next week as a warm front approaches from the west. Dew points will still be in the 50s and PWATs will also be at least 1" for the more southern counties. Some 500mb shortwaves are expected to pass through the region prior to the next cold front which could bring some additional precipitation chances for the more western and mountainous counties. Given it is May, this precipitation will likely be in the form of thunderstorms though severe weather is currently unlikely. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Chance of widespread precipitation mid-next week 2) Drier air to move in A surface low is projected to pass through the region mid-next week but specific impacts will be determined on its trajectory. This low is expected to be dragging fronts with it but it's position relative to our area will determine if our area gets a cold front, a warm front, or both. Precipitation is the highest with this system next week, but it is too early to know of any severe weather hazards or how much precipitation will accompany this system. The air mass that follows it will be considerably drier with dew points lowering into the 50s region-wide and PWATs tanking to about 0.25-0.50 inches. The air temperatures also may be a little cooler with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s towards the Piedmont. An upper level low is projected to pass through the northeast portion of CONUS towards the end of next week but model guidance is currently unsure if it will be a cut off low. The upper low looks to move slowly regardless of this and provide multiple vorticity maxima to the Mid-Atlantic. With the dry conditions, however, additional precipitation is unlikely. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... MCS will move along the VA/NC border between now and 22Z with impacts to BLF/BCB/ROA/LYH/DAN. 55KT wind gust was reported at the NWS office in Blacksburg near KBCB just after 19Z. These storms contain damaging hail and wind. After 22Z...expect lull in activity, but additional storms are expected to arrive overnight. Another MCS is expected to develop over Missouri and move east through KY with a bkn-solid line of storms crossing the central Appalachians between 04Z-08Z. Much improved flight conditions are expected Saturday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Dry weather is expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday. High pressure ridging into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday and into early next week, keeping the weather quiet with likely VFR conditions for all terminals. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 320 AM EDT Friday... The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Blacksburg, VA is continuing to conduct a required, scheduled update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025. While we have taken back over most of the forecast operations, our service back-up office in Raleigh, NC, there may still be issues with delayed or missing products until all services are restored. No impacts to our core services of forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected during this period. The forecast office in Blacksburg, VA will remain open and staffed through the period for public and partner phone calls. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...PM EQUIPMENT...WP ####018004730#### FXUS64 KLCH 161952 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 252 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to Major heat risk is noted through the weekend as a prolonged period of above normal hot and humid weather will persist. - An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for rain out of the forecast into early next week. - Trends show a cold front moving through next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning that will bring a chance for rain along with cooler nights and less humid days. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A warm and humid Friday afternoon is ongoing across the forecast area as we remain entrenched beneath upper level ridging. Unfortunately, this pattern doesn't look to break any time soon, with more of the same warm and humid weather on tap for the weekend. Ridging aloft will keep any precipitation at bay, while breezy onshore flow resulting from surface high pressure centered near FL will keep an steady influx of warm and moist air into the region. The combination of warm and humid air at the surface and lack of any precip will result in above average temps throughout the weekend, with highs topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows falling into the low to mid 70s. Apparent temps are forecast to peak in the lower 100s across central LA and interior SE TX each afternoon, while closer to the coast apparent temps in the mid to upper 90s can be expected. The NWS Heat Risk tool depicts Moderate to Major Heat Risk both Sat and Sun (level 2 and 3 out of 4), so heat safety should be a top priority this weekend. 17 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Moving into the work week, more of the same hot and humid weather is on tap for Monday and Tuesday, with highs again reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon amid mostly sunny skies. However, a pattern change does finally look to arrive late Tuesday as a deepening upper level trough dives across the Plains and sends a cold front across the SErn US. Models are in good agreement with the front arriving late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, exiting the region by midday Wednesday. This boundary will likely be accompanied by some showers and thunderstorms, which will likely begin to affect interior SE TX and parts of CENLA by Tuesday evening, spreading southeastward from there overnight. Any lingering convection should come to an end through Wednesday morning, as a dry WNW/NW flow develops overhead aloft and the cold front exits to our east/southeast. Dry and slightly cooler air will filter into the region throughout the day Wednesday, resulting in a rather pleasant middle and end to to the work week. Dewpoints are forecasted to hang out in the mid 50s to lower 60s from at least Wed through Fri, while high temps top out in the low to mid 80s. After the precip accompanying the front dry weather is expected through the end of the week as well. 17 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Scattered to broken CIGs will waffle between MVFR and VFR this afternoon, eventually becoming MVFR area-wide near or just after sunset. Winds will remain breezy out of the south until sunset, relaxing overnight. As we near sunrise tomorrow, areas of IFR CIGs as well as patchy fog will be possible. This should be rather brief, with all sites returning to MVFR through the mid-morning and then again waffling between MVFR and VFR thereafter. Winds will again become breezy by the mid to late morning hours tomorrow. 17 && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure at the surface will continue to ridge across the northern Gulf through the weekend into early next week, resulting in several more days of light to moderate onshore flow, low seas, and dry conditions. Winds and seas begin to pick up a bit by Tuesday as a front approaches from the north, tightening the pressure gradient overhead and eventually bringing our next chance of rain by early Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 92 72 92 / 10 10 0 0 LCH 75 87 74 87 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 75 88 74 87 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 75 89 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...17