####018008924#### FXUS62 KMLB 161959 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 359 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 - Increasingly hot and dry conditions forecast for east central Florida this weekend and early next week with widespread low to mid 90s and near record high temperatures, as well as fire sensitive conditions - Peak heat indices forecast to reach 100-106 this weekend into early next week. There is a Moderate HeatRisk on Saturday, a Moderate to Major HeatRisk on Monday, and a Moderate to Extreme HeatRisk Tuesday to Wednesday - Mostly dry weather expected through next Wednesday before isolated to widely scattered showers and lightning storms on Thursday with a "cool" front expected to move over east central Florida. Drought conditions will have the potential to worsen/expand before returning rain chances. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Currently-Saturday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies. High pressure (~1018mb) is situated over the eastern Gulf of America and the state of Florida. Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in the 90s to 100F degrees and dew points generally in the 60s to low 70s. Winds are from the east-southeast at 6-12mph with gusts to 20mph along the coast with the east coast sea breeze beginning to move inland and from the west-southwest at 6-12mph to the west of I-95. Dry and hot weather is expected to continue this afternoon with above normal to record high temperatures. Dry and hot weather will continue Saturday afternoon with high pressure over Florida, as well as 500mb heights at around 591dm forecast over east central Florida into Saturday afternoon. ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles indicate afternoon temperatures in the 97.5th to maximum percentile for this time of year over east central Florida. Lows in the mid 60 to mid 70s are forecast. Above normal (~5-10F+) to record high temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast. There is a Moderate HeatRisk on Saturday. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate hydration. It is recommended that those who spend extended periods of time outside this afternoon and early evening to drink plenty of water, wear light-colored clothing, reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade, and take breaks in an air conditioned facility. Sunday-Tuesday... High pressure over Florida on Sunday is expected to gradually shift east over the southwest Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday. Guidance shows 500mb heights over east central Florida around 588-591dm Sunday to Tuesday. Additionally, ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles indicate afternoon temperatures in the 90th to maximum percentile for this time of year over east central Florida. Dry weather is expected with high temperatures in the low to upper 90s and lows in generally the mid 60s to mid 70s. Heat index values between 98-106F degrees are forecast. There is a Moderate to Major HeatRisk Sunday to Monday, and a Moderate to Extreme HeatRisk Tuesday. A Major to Extreme HeatRisk affects anyone without effective cooling and/or hydration. More information on HeatRisk can be found at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk. Winds are forecast to increase from the east-southeast at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph into each afternoon with the east coast sea breeze generally to the east of the Orlando metro with winds from the west-southwest at 5-10mph. Wednesday-Thursday... High pressure is expected to weaken and shift southeast over the southwest Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday before a "cool" front is forecast to move east-southeast over east central Florida on Thursday. Global models show PWATs between 1.40-1.70" over east central Florida on Thursday. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) and lightning storms are forecast ahead of the "cool" front Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning generally along and to the north of I-4 as the aforementioned front moves south over northern Florida before moving over east central Florida into Thursday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers (PoPS ~ 20-30%) and lightning are forecast to develop from the northwest to southeast over east central Florida Thursday morning and afternoon before showers and storms are expected to move offshore of the Treasure Coast into Thursday night. West-southwest winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast. Above normal to record afternoon highs in the low to upper 90s are forecast on Wednesday and the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast on Thursday. Heat index values between 98-106F degrees are forecast on Wednesday. There is a Moderate to Extreme HeatRisk on Wednesday and a Moderate HeatRisk on Thursday. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Currently-Saturday.... Favorable boating conditions and dry weather are expected with high pressure (~1018mb) over Florida. South-southeast winds at 6-14kts are expected to veer west- southwest tonight and back east-southeast into Saturday afternoon. Seas to 1-3ft are expected. Sunday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions and dry weather are expected with high pressure (~1017mb) over Florida expected to gradually shift southeast over the southwest Atlantic through Tuesday. West-southwest winds at 6-14kts are expected to back east-southeast into each afternoon and increase to 10-15kts on Tuesday. Seas to 1-3ft are expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 104 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Continued mainly VFR. SW/WSW winds 5-10 kts across the interior will become light (5 kts or less) later this evening and overnight. The ECSB will develop early this afternoon moving slowly inland, though it will be delayed along the Volusia coast with minimal inland movement (if any at all), backing winds E/SE and increasing to 10-14 kts. Light/variable morning winds on Sat will transition W/SW and increasing to 5-10 kts during the day (interior). The ECSB develops by early Sat afternoon with slow push inland and a likely delay along the Volusia coast, once again. Persistent overall pattern with conditions dry. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Sensitive fire weather conditions are expected through mid week next week with soils expected to continue to dry out with no mentionable rain chances in the forecast through Tuesday. Minimum RH values between 30-35% over the interior are expected Saturday; however, winds will be relatively light, so conditions will not reach Red Flag criteria. Minimum RH values near 50% are forecast close to the coast south of Cape Canaveral. Minimum RH values between 35-40% are forecast generally over the interior Sunday and into early next week. Winds will turn onshore each afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph behind the sea breeze, mainly east of the Orlando metro. Above normal to near record high temperatures are expected each day. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Record highs today through Tuesday: DAB 16-May 94 1994 LEE 16-May 95 1985 SFB 16-May 97 1967 MCO 16-May 99 1922 MLB 16-May 95 1995 VRB 16-May 95 1995 FPR 16-May 94 2022 DAB 17-May 95 1963 LEE 17-May 96 1991 SFB 17-May 96 2001 MCO 17-May 97 1915 MLB 17-May 97 1963 VRB 17-May 95 2023 FPR 17-May 95 2008 DAB 18-May 97 1995 LEE 18-May 98 1996 SFB 18-May 95 2024 MCO 18-May 97 1930 MLB 18-May 96 1995 VRB 18-May 96 2024 FPR 18-May 98 1995 DAB 19-May 94 1995 LEE 19-May 94 1991 SFB 19-May 97 1960 MCO 19-May 98 1908 MLB 19-May 95 1995 VRB 19-May 95 1995 FPR 19-May 97 1995 DAB 20-May 94 2008 LEE 20-May 95 2017 SFB 20-May 95 2017 MCO 20-May 96 1935 MLB 20-May 95 1980 VRB 20-May 93 2020 FPR 20-May 96 1980 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 72 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 72 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 71 93 72 93 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 70 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 70 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 70 92 71 92 / 0 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fehling AVIATION...Sedlock ####018011017#### FXUS61 KALY 161959 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 359 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and and isolated thunderstorms this evening diminish overnight, but additional showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are expected again tomorrow ahead of a cold front. We may still have some lingering showers around Sunday, but should dry out Monday through the middle of the week with much cooler weather behind the front. Rain chances increase towards the middle of next week, with continued below normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 4:00 PM EDT...Currently, an upper low and occluded sfc low are pushing into the western Great Lakes region. Out ahead of this system, low-level warm and moist advection has allowed for temperatures to rise well into the 70s to low 80s, with upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints. Skies have become partly to mostly clear, so the combination of sun and warmth/moisture have allowed for MLCAPE values to rise to 500-1000 J/kg, with a plume of higher CAPE values expected to push in from the west later this evening between now and sunset. However, current GOES 16 WV imagery shows a lot of mid-level dry air and subsidence behind an MCS that decayed as it tracked near our region earlier this morning. Model forecast soundings show a slight capping inversion that is likely inhibiting convective initiation. There have been some isolated showers and thunderstorms across the ADKs and southern VT, but the rest of the region remains mostly dry at this time. However, with heights falling aloft this evening there may be enough additional forcing to overcome any cap, especially with the strongest subsidence beginning to move to our east. So, we are still monitoring the potential for some additional showers and storms to develop this evening. Greatest chance appears to be along and north of I-90. Vertical shear isn't overly impressive at <25-30 kt so widespread/organized severe weather isn't expected, but with DCAPE values approaching 750-1000 J/kg a few storms could contain damaging winds. We still agree with the SPC marginal risk across the region. PWATs on the order of 1.25-1.45" could also lead to some locally heavy rainfall within thunderstorms, and storm motions won't be overly fast, so isolated hydro issues can't be ruled out this evening. Tonight, lingering convection is possible for a couple hours after sunset, mainly south and east of the Capital District. The threat for any stronger storms should also diminish with the loss of daytime heating after sunset. Diffluent flow aloft and low-level warm advection will lead to plenty of clouds around tonight and a few lingering showers. A couple non-severe thunderstorms will also be possible overnight with some pockets of elevated instability. Lows will be quite mild, mainly in the 50s to 60s. Some patchy fog and low stratus are expected across the Mid Hudson Valley and southwestern New England due to light low-level S/SE flow, with some additional patchy fog for areas that receive rain this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message: - There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday from late morning through mid to late afternoon for much of eastern NY and western New England. - The slight risk for severe weather has been shifted further north and east from the previous forecast. Discussion: Tomorrow, the upper low and occluded low track eastwards across the Great Lakes region. A weak warm frontal boundary lifts northwards late tonight/very early tomorrow morning, and there could be some lingering isolated showers/storms across northern areas tomorrow morning. However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late morning as a pre-frontal trough tracks through the region. Some of these storms could become strong to severe (more below). There may be a brief lull in convective activity for a few hours in the mid to late afternoon, before another line of storms tracks from west to east across the region ahead of the system's actual cold front. Despite strong forcing for ascent, instability should diminish behind the first wave of convection, so the probability for severe weather with this second round of convection looks lower at this time. This is a change from the previous forecast, which messaged a greater severe potential with the second round of convection later in the day. Regarding the severe threat, timing appears to be from roughly 10 AM to 4PM tomorrow. There is some uncertainty in how much instability develops, but the HREF suggests that 1000-1500+ J/kg of SBCAPE is possible, with the greatest instability in the Hudson Valley from the Capital District northwards. This instability will overlap with 35-40+ kt of deep-layer wind shear. Damaging wind seems to be the primary threat with DCAPE values of 700-1000 J/kg, but large hail will also be possible with WBZ heights near 9.5 - 10.5 kft and mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7C/km. There is also a chance for an isolated tornado or two tomorrow with some low-level curvature to the hodographs and low LCLs, although the fact that most of the wind shear is above the lowest 1 km makes this a lower-end threat. The threat appears greatest from roughly the Capital District north and east tomorrow, and given this we have collaborated with SPC and WFO BTV to have the slight risk moved into this area and trimmed back across the southern part of our area where forcing looks weaker. Instability should diminish behind this first round of convection, reducing the severe threat later in the evening. However, wind shear still looks impressive tomorrow afternoon and evening, so we can't totally rule out a stronger storm or two with the second round of convection if there is more instability than forecast. There is also a threat for heavy rain with any thunderstorms tomorrow, as PWAT values remain elevated at between 1.2-1.4" per the latest HREF. However, storm motions will be faster with strengthening flow aloft, and areas north of the I-90 that are expected to see the greatest convective coverage have received very little rain over the past 5 days. This should limit the threat for hydro issues, although any storms moving over urban/poor drainage areas could still result in some ponding of water. WPC has placed areas north of I-90 in a marginal risk ERO tomorrow. Highs will be mainly in the 70s to around 80, and it will be muggy again with dew points in the 50s to mid 60s. Saturday night through Sunday night...The cold front tracks through the region Saturday evening and early overnight. Convection comes to an end within a couple hours of sunset, and a much cooler airmass will infiltrate the region behind the front. There will be some scattered showers lingering, especially during the day on Sunday, with the upper low and associated cold pool aloft tracking across upstate NY. It will be much cooler with overnight lows in the 40s to 50s Saturday night and 30s to 40s Sunday night. Daytime highs Sunday will be mainly in the 50s to 60s with lower humidity. West winds also become breezy with the surface low tracking to our northeast and broad high pressure building out of Canada towards the Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday through Tuesday night...The upper low moves off to our northeast, but we remain in persistent NW flow aloft. High pressure remains northwest of our region, which will keep breezy conditions around through this timeframe. Temperatures remain below normal for this timeframe, with 50s to 60s during the day and 30s to 40s each night for lows. There could be a few lingering showers across the ADKs or southern Greens, but by and large most areas will remain dry. Wednesday through Friday...Chances for rain increase for the middle of the week, as guidance is in relatively good agreement on an upper shortwave tracking across the TN valley interacting with retrograding northern stream energy, eventually forming a closed upper low. At the surface, an area of low pressure will likely develop and track near the east coast, so we have included likely PoPs for Wednesday and Thursday. The details and timing will still need to be ironed out, including how quickly the upper low and lingering precip depart to our east Thursday night and Friday. Nevertheless, with a storm track to our south and east, we will likely see continued below normal temperatures each day. CPC is expecting below normal temperatures and above normal precip to continue for days 8-14. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 18z Saturday...VFR conditions are in place across all terminals this afternoon with decreasing clouds across the region. This afternoon, MVFR conditions will be possible with passing showers and some isolated non-severe thunderstorms. With differences in the guidance on just where these will develop and track, it was difficult to pin down exactly when and where these showers and storms could potentially impact terminals. So, input TEMPOs and PROB30 groups at KALB and KGFL where these are most likely this afternoon and this evening. KPOU and KPSF should remain dry, though a light shower or two crossing through their vicinity is possible. Any MVFR conditions from precipitation should improve to VFR once again tonight before some fog/low stratus is expected to develop everywhere. This will especially be possible where winds go calm and at terminals that see rain this afternoon. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected with this and IFR ceilings will continue into the end of the 18z TAF cycle even after visibilities improve tomorrow morning. Otherwise, winds will be relatively light and variable out of the south with sustained speeds ranging from about 5-10 kt. Outlook... Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Main NEAR TERM...Main SHORT TERM...Main LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Gant ####018007685#### FXUS65 KVEF 162000 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 100 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures will continue today with light afternoon breezes. A stray shower may develop along the Sierra crest this afternoon with gusty winds and sprinkles in the Owens Valley. A weather system will drop into the region over the weekend bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and shower chances to mainly the Great Basin. Conditions will improve next week with warm conditions returning. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. An upper level system will dig into the region on Saturday which will bring increasing winds to the region. South to southwest winds increase in response to the increasing pressure gradient with impactful gusts over 40 MPH in the valleys and gusts up to 60 MPH in the terrain likely late Saturday morning through Saturday evening across San Bernardino, far southern Nevada, and Mohave counties. A wind advisory is in effect for these areas on Saturday where wind impacts with strong crosswinds, patchy blowing dust, difficult travel and boating conditions, and easily blown away light weight items are most likely. No changes were made to the wind headlines at this time, however a few places were considered: Looked at adding the Sierra slopes and Owens Valley to the Saturday wind Advisory as NBM 24hr Max Gust probabilities for over 40 MPH are 70%+. However, looking at the hourly data, probabilities are lower and isolated. Looked at downsloping set up down Sierra into the Owens Valley but it didnt look ideal and the stronger winds remained mostly in the high to mid slopes. There were some instances in hi- res models and ensemble members that did show higher gust 40 MPH+ in the Owens Valley, but it's very short lived. Held off on issuing any wind headlines for the Sierra and Owens Valley for now, it may still be needed but the stronger winds would likely be later in the day compared to the rest of the region so will continue to watch trends for a better signal and confidence increases. Also looked at the need to upgrade any of the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning, with the highest potential for this being in the Western Mojave Desert as well as on the lee side of the Spring Mountains. In the Western Mojave Desert, the low level jet briefly increases to 50-60 MPH between 5 PM to 11 PM Saturday evening. Forecast soundings show these winds struggling to make it to the surface as we decouple after sunset. There is an increase in probabilities for gusts over 58 MPH Saturday evening that matches up with the increasing low level jet, but the highest probabilities mainly focus on the terrain- valley areas show lower probabilities and only a brief uptick in the winds. For these reasons, did not upgrade to a High Wind Warning. On the lee-side of the Spring Mts, cross sections show a better potential for downsloping that in the Sierra, however it still is not great and models show max winds of 50-55MPH transitioning down the mountain. While these winds would be impactful as they would result in strong crosswinds over US-95 between Desert Rock and Indian Springs, winds should be sub-60 MPH and thus will continue with the wind advisory with wording that highlights this crosswind impact. Saturday night and Sunday, winds will become northwest as the main trough shifts east. A second piece of energy that rides down the anticyclonic side eof this trough and reinforce these winds Sunday afternoon. There continues to be model discrepancy about how strong this reinforcing shortwave will be and thus creates uncertainty in how strong the winds will be Sunday afternoon. Probabilities for wind gusts over 40 MPH are highest in northern Inyo County through Esmeralda and central Nye however it occurs Saturday night and is confined to the terrain. Winds are not as strong on Sunday, and while there is some potential for wind impacts Sunday afternoon is the stronger solution with the shortwave comes to fruition- the probability for widespread impacts Sunday afternoon is fairly low. The best chance would be in the Colorado River Valley as north winds will build waves and could impact boating. In addition to the winds, the systems this weekend may also bring precipitation to the Southern Great Basin area. The best chance will be Saturday afternoon when forcing is highest and weak instability is able to develop. PWATs will remain around 100%-150%, or about 0.50-0.75 inch, and low levels will struggle to saturate- so precipitation impacts will be low. There is a low probability (about 30%) for over 0.25 inches total of rain in Lincoln County, otherwise precipitation will remain light. Any thunderstorms that are able to develop could produce lightning and sudden gusty winds with dry low levels. On Sunday, there is a lingering risk for showers and isolated thunderstorms in eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave County, however the probabilities for rain are lower and more isolated than Saturday. Temperatures through the weekend will cool each day with each system. On Saturday, high temperatures will run about 3-5 degrees below normal, then about 5-8 degrees below normal on Sunday. .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday. Ridging sets up over the region as the trough exits to the east. As this happens, temperatures will return to above average values. Las Vegas has a 63 percent probability of reaching its first 100 degree day on Thursday. By Thursday, expect widespread Moderate (Level 2) HeatRisk across the desert valleys, a level of heat that affects anyone sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate cooling or hydration. There is also the potential for some Major (Level 3) HeatRisk along the Colorado River, which affects anyone without effective cooling or hydration. Given the placement under high pressure, dry conditions and non-impactful winds are forecast through the long term. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Breezy south-southwest winds develop this afternoon with gusts 15-20 knots. A brief period (1 hour or less) of southeast winds around 10 knots is possible as the winds begin to pick up, but the dominant direction this afternoon will be 180-230. Winds remain southerly overnight though gusts should cease and speeds weaken. Strong south- southwest winds tomorrow as gusts reach 30-40 knots. SCT-BKN clouds at or above 15kft move in today and persist through tomorrow. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light winds this morning will give way to breezy south-southwest winds across most of the area this afternoon. Expecting gusts in the 15-25 knot range. As the sun set, winds will weaken everywhere except DAG where they will remain breezy overnight. Stronger south-southwest winds forecast tomorrow. VFR conditions prevail throughout the TAF period with SCT- BKN clouds at or above 10kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nickerson LONG TERM...Meltzer AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter ####018004619#### FXUS63 KBIS 162000 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 300 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rainy and very windy today, with near-record cold high temperatures in the 40s. - Near to sub-freezing overnight temperatures across western and north central North Dakota tonight, and all but far southwest North Dakota Saturday night. - Rain chances return Sunday through Tuesday, highest southwest (as high as 90 percent) and lowest far north (around 30 percent). - Below normal temperatures expected through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 An upper level low continues to move eastward this afternoon shifting wrap around precipitation west to east. Strong pressure gradient winds continue to descend on the backside of the low leading to wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph across the state. A few wind gusts around 55 to 60 mph have been observed in the southwest. Rain continues across the western and central North Dakota with wide spread 2 to 4 inch reports across the west and central and a few isolated areas with 5 to 6 inch storm total rain with it still raining. There has been some observed ponding across the countryside by nothing major at this moment. As rain tapers off to the east tonight surface high pressure will move into the region. Thus, causing widespread freezing temperatures across western and central North Dakota. Therefore, the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning with a Frost Advisory issued for portions of central North Dakota. Low temperatures are forecast to drop down to the upper 20s out west to mid 30s in the James River Valley. Recent rainfall and cold temperatures are forecast to drop the temperature tonight to the dew point resulting in patchy fog forming out west. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast to warm back into the upper 40s in the Turtle Mountains to the lower 60s in the southwest. Much of the state is forecast to sit in the 50s. Cyclonic flow aloft could bring some showers to eastern North Dakota tomorrow afternoon. Breezy conditions are possible out in the James River Valley as well. Tomorrow surface high pressure will linger through the day resulting in some clearing of the clouds across western and central North Dakota. Another round of freezing temperatures is expected Saturday night for eastern and central North Dakota as surface high pressure remains in the region. Headlines are likely for frost freeze through Sunday morning. Another upper level low is forecast to dig across the Pacific Northwest Sunday morning moving into the Rockies. This will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across the west Sunday and into central North Dakota by the evening hours. This upper level low is forecast to stall over the Central Plains Monday leading to southern North Dakota remaining in the deformation zone of the upper low through Tuesday. This will lead to greater accumulations along the North and South Dakota border. Much of Northern North Dakota will likely see less precipitation. Temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday. Temperatures will begin to warm up by Wednesday approaching near normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 MVFR to IFR conditions continue across the state as an upper level low lingers across the region. Rain will continue this afternoon tapering off by this evening, west to east. Visibility reductions are possible from stronger rain showers. Strong northwest winds will continue across the state with the strongest wind gusts continuing across the southwest. There could be some patchy fog development late tonight across the western half of the state. Ceilings are forecast to improve tonight across the state clearing out by tomorrow afternoon. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>042-044>048-050-051. Freeze Warning from 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for NDZ001>005-009>011-017>019-021-031>033-040- 041-043-044. Frost Advisory from 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ to 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday for NDZ012-013-020-022-034-035-042. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for NDZ043. && $$ DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Johnson ####018007758#### FXUS63 KTOP 162001 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 301 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry today and Saturday. - Rain chances increase Sunday morning north of a warm front before severe storm chances increase by the afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible with storms Sunday. See discussion for further details. - Cold front pushes through the area Monday afternoon and evening with additional chances for severe weather across eastern Kansas. - Cooler and cloudy conditions build in Tuesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 19Z water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a cutoff low over the Great lakes region, a 50-70kt sub-tropical jet extending from Baja California to the Ohio River Valley, and associated convection that has begun to develop in central Missouri. Across eastern Kansas, a surface trough has shifted southeast of the area, ushering in gusty northwesterly winds. This should help to keep temperatures from warming much higher than the low to mid 80s this afternoon. For the remainder of the afternoon, pressure gradients should remain tight into this evening with an 850 mb jet streak pushing into southeast Nebraska. This will help to keep very gusty winds across the area, especially across north-central and far northeast Kansas with occasional gusts to 35-40 mph. Winds should subside just after sunset as the boundary layer decouples. By Saturday, the northern upper low will push east, ushering in surface ridging to the central Plains. Pleasant conditions will be expected Saturday as low humidity, light northerly winds and temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and low 80s build in for the afternoon. Changes begin to build into the area Saturday evening as the 850 mb ridge axis slides east of Kansas and begins to push moisture back north. By Sunday morning, our next upper low begins to dig south into the central Rockies and in response, will quickly deepen a surface cyclone across eastern Colorado. Cyclogenesis will continue through the morning Sunday as a warm front will slowly lift north out of northern Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. With a 30-40 knot LLJ overriding this frontal boundary across eastern Kansas, precipitation north of the boundary will likely increase Sunday morning. Morning precipitation chances should just be light to moderate rain shower activity, but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out as elevated instability increase into the later morning hours. The main timeframe of discussion comes later in the afternoon Sunday as the warm front begins to slow its northward march, stalling somewhere along the I-70 corridor in eastern Kansas as a dryline begins to push into south-central Kansas with the surface low ejecting out across central Kansas. South of the warm front in the warm sector of the cyclone, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50 knots and very steep ML lapse rates will become realized pointing to very strong to severe storm potential across central and eastern Kansas. Parcels that are able to overcome any environmental capping along the dryline in south-central Kansas or along the warm front would be expected to quickly strengthen, posing risks for very large hail (2+ inch) damaging winds (60-70 mph) and a few tornadoes, some possibly strong. That said...confidence is still low to moderate for severe storms Sunday due to several inputs that will likely play a role in who sees severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening. The main uncertainty lies in where the surface features set up Sunday morning and afternoon. CAMs are beginning to come in with their first solutions as to where these boundaries might be, but there still are differences in where the NAM, EURO and GFS want to position these features. Currently, the GFS remains the most bullish in how far north it pushes the warm front with most guidance keeping the warm front along or south of I-70. Model trends have also pushed the dry line a bit further west over the past few runs. If the warm front remains shunted to our south for Sunday, our severe risk will be a bit lower as most severe storms that do move over northeast Kansas will remain elevated, only posing a large hail risk. If the warm front and warm sector can move further north, that opens the door for storms to become surface-based and pose the risk for all modes of severe weather. Another uncertainty with Sunday will be how much of an impact morning showers and cloud cover will have on available instability. Not overly worried this will play too much of a role in limiting severe storms as cooling aloft and increasing surface moisture will keep CAPE values very large. Lastly, some residual capping in the lower levels may limit overall storm coverage if lift remains overly weak. Still, if a storm can develop, remain surface-based, parameters suggest it quickly becoming strong. Storm initiation for Sunday afternoon appears to be around the 3-4 PM timeframe, mainly depending on when MLCIN becomes weakest. As storms move east Sunday evening and overnight into Monday some downstream evolution may become realized as the LLJ increases across southeastern Kansas. This could create some localized flooding concerns, especially if storms train over the same areas. That said, most of Kansas should be storm-free by 06z Monday. By Monday afternoon another round of severe weather will be possible as the main upper low begins to occlude in central Nebraska. A fair amount of uncertainty remains with Monday's severe storms chances as Sunday will likely impact where surface moisture remains for Monday. Overall set up for storms Monday will be along frontal boundary extending from the surface low in Nebraska. A dryline may also become a forcing mechanism Monday afternoon in evening across central Kansas that could kick off storms. Given severe parameters of 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear, a good axis of SBCAPE > 2000 J/kg and steep ML lapse rates, all modes of severe weather will be possible again. It seems that guidance keeps most appreciable surface moisture across far eastern Kansas by Monday afternoon, so it seems like this would be the main area of interest for the most widespread storm coverage Monday afternoon and evening. Stay tuned to the forecast in the coming 48 hours for additional details for Monday's storm threat. Tuesday into the remainder of the week will see conditions characterized by cooler air and mostly cloudy conditions, especially Tues/Wed. Severe storm chances should stay south and east of the area as well. Warmer and sunnier conditions should begin to return to the area Thursday as the upper low finally moves east into the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Main aviation hazard over the course of the TAF will be gusty winds this afternoon. Expect northwest winds gusting upwards of 30-35 mph this afternoon with sustained winds around 20 mph. Winds should begin to fall below 10 mph after sunset this evening with some mid and high clouds filtering over the area. Winds should not shift too much through the remainder of the period, staying around or below 10 mph. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Griesemer ####018008184#### FXUS62 KILM 162001 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 401 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures near record highs are expected again on Saturday. A weak cold front accompanied by isolated showers and storms will track across the area Saturday night. Mainly dry weather with above normal temps are then expected early next week until a storm system likely affects the area toward the middle of next week, bringing better rain chances and cooler weather for the latter half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Above normal temps w/ record high temps possible Saturday *Isolated damaging wind gust possible north of Lumberton/Wilmington this eve *Isolated damaging wind gusts/large hail possible Saturday aftn/eve Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: The mid-level ridge over the area will flatten as shortwave energy moves through ahead of a surface cold front. Rain chances overall look to remain limited given the overall limited moisture but some showers/storms are possible this evening, mainly in NC, and again Saturday across all of SE NC and NE SC. There looks to be quite a bit of instability/shear for any storms to tap into so can't rule out a few damaging wind gusts and/or some large hail. Temps should be the big story though as they will be well above normal, only falling into the mid 70s tonight for most locales, and then likely into the lower 90s away from the beaches Saturday when record highs could be reached (see Climate section below for details on the record temps). && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A cold front is expected to settle southeastward through the are over Saturday night as a closed mid-upper low and its associated surface low track across New England. This far south, forcing for ascent will be meager, but surface convergence along the front may be enough to develop isolated strong convection. Prior to midnight, environmental parameters will support severe weather for any storm which manages to develop and grow tall enough to take advantage of 45-55 kts of effective shear amidst waning instability during the evening and early overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5) for severe hail and wind as the anticipated coverage is very low. Otherwise, expect fairly rapid cooling during the evening after another hot day with west-southwesterly winds veering to westerly by the end of the night behind the cold front. Morning lows on Sunday should end up in the upper 60s to low 70s, coolest north, as somewhat drier air nudges in. On Sunday, the front should stall just south of the area as it becomes aligned parallel to the flow aloft. Building ridging west of the forecast area will reinstate northwesterly flow aloft which could bring a cluster of showers or storms to far southern portions of the forecast area nearest to the front, but PoPs remain no higher than slight chance (20%) to account for this threat. Otherwise, mid-level dry air and subsidence should keep the region dry and very warm with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F with passing high cloudiness. The continued increase in ridging west of the forecast area will result in greater subsidence developing through the atmospheric column, allowing for a drier and more capped atmosphere to develop on Sunday night. Thus, outside of a decaying shower scraping our southern areas, the region should stay dry overnight with lows in the mid-upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Confidence in the long-term forecast is rather low as a substantial western US trough with multiple vort maxes evolves and tracks eastward. This will drag the stalled front back northeastward as a warm front during the first half of the week, along which we may see a round or two of convection tracking southeastward into the forecast area. Otherwise, guidance generally agrees that higher rain chances can be expected around midweek as low pressure drags another cold front towards and through the area from the west. Atmospheric parameters become more supportive of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the outcome of whether severe storms actually develop will depend on finer-scale details related to the mid- upper pattern. Furthermore, whether the cold front clears the area with dry weather in its wake will also depend on the outcome of this pattern, but overall, it appears a solid push of cooler and drier air will be in store at some point by the end of the week. However, until the front arrives, continued very warm weather is expected with highs in the upper 80s to around 90, although lower dew points away from the coast should allow low temps to fall to or below 70F in many locations on Monday night and Tuesday night, and potentially much cooler than that behind the front late in the week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions through 18Z Sat. There is a very low risk of MVFR cigs at KLBT/KFLO late tonight and Sat morning as a shortwave approaches. Also, LLWS is expected late tonight as a west- southwesterly low-level jet increases across the area. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Through Saturday... Moderate to high confidence this period. The area will remain between an inland trough and approaching weak cold front and offshore high pressure. Thus, southerly winds will prevail. The combination of the low-level jet and pressure gradient could push winds to near Small Craft Advisory levels Saturday when gusts to near 25 kt are likely, although we don't feel an Advisory is warranted at this time, especially since seas should stay 4 ft or less. Saturday night through Wednesday... Southwesterly winds on Saturday evening of 15-20 kts veer to westerly and subside as a cold front slides through the waters. Winds become light and variable around or below 10 kts for Sunday and Monday as the front stalls just south of the area and wavers (although the sea breeze circulation should yield enhanced nearshore winds around 10-15 kts). The front should lift back northward at some point on Tuesday with winds becoming southerly behind it. Strengthening low pressure northwest of the waters will tighten the pressure gradient and lead to increasing flow on Wednesday ahead of a cold front, with chances for showers and thunderstorms peaking ahead of this front. Seas will relax from their 3-4 ft state Saturday evening into the 2-3 ft range on Sunday as winds ease up behind the front. Seas are expected to hold in the 1-3 ft range for Monday and Tuesday as the flow remains generally light. Seas increase in tandem with the increasing winds on Wednesday, although how high waves reach will depend on the strength of the low pressure system northwest of the waters. Outside of diurnally-driven wind waves, a persistent 1-2 ft southeasterly swell with a period around 9 sec will continue. && .CLIMATE... High temperature records may be challenged Friday and Saturday as anomalously warm air overspreads the region ahead of a cold front. Record highs for our four climate sites are as follows: For Friday, May 16th... Wilmington, NC: 94F (1915) Lumberton, NC: 96F (1962, 1941) Florence, SC: 93F (2022) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 91F (1941) Saturday, May 17th... Wilmington, NC: 92F (1960, 1990) Lumberton, NC: 96F (1941) Florence, SC: 93F (1977) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 92F (1941) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...ABW LONG TERM...ABW AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RJB/ABW CLIMATE...ILM ####018007619#### FXUS61 KRLX 162002 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 402 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rounds of strong to severe storms expected today through tonight. Cold front crosses Saturday. Quieter to finish the weekend, then unsettled pattern returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 351 PM Friday... Elected to let the watch go and cancelled it as all the thunderstorm activity is now east of the area. Gusty winds can still be a factor as well as some stratiform rain until they move out as well. As of 310 PM Friday... The severe thunderstorm watch has been allowed to be canceled in our KY counties, as well as Wayne and Lincoln in WV. The strongest convection is currently across the southern mountains and coalfields and it has moved out of these counties. Still anticipating another round of severe weather later this evening with a line of storms that will form. As of 214 PM Friday... Put up a wind advisory across the higher elevations of Randolph and Pocahontas from 10 AM Saturday until 2 AM Sunday. Models are showing fairly strong post-frontal flow that will move in early Saturday morning. Gusts between 45 and 50 MPH are possible across the higher elevation zones. As of 1235 PM Friday... Currently have some thunderstorms to our southwest in eastern KY that are moving into the severe storm/flash flood watch area. There is a fairly sturdy (-50 to -75 CINH) mixed-layer cap that has formed over the lowlands which is showing some signs of disrupting these storms as they surge deeper into our forecast area. Damaging winds, hail, and the chance for an isolated tornado are the hazards of concern. Despite the cap, instability and lapse rates are on the stronger side with SBCAPE between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg. Effective shear is very strong with values between 50-65 kts, which will lead to some rotating storms this afternoon. Convective models are keeping the trend of training these storms over the southern coalfields/mountains, so flash flooding concerns are elevated through the afternoon, hence the flash flood watch. 1-hr FFG is around an inch to an inch and a half in spots with 3-hr FFG only slightly higher. HREF/HRRR are still in agreement with bringing in a well developed, stronger line of storms that will move in from the west between 7 PM and 9 PM, subsequently moving across the forecast area west to east. The greatest wind threat will reside in this system where prob wind statistics show 60 - 70 MPH gusts could be possible if this line if it manifests as the CAMs are suggesting. Further flash flood concerns will linger into the night with models showing the southern, upshear portion of the line moving over the counties currently outlooked with the flash flood watch, which will be receiving repeated rounds of heavy rainfall this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Friday... Outside of a few isolated showers early Saturday night, dry weather is expected through the short term period as weak upper level ridging builds into the region. Gusty winds early Saturday night across the lowlands will quickly diminish, while persisting across the highest terrain into the day on Sunday (generally 30-40 mph). Sunday will feature a fair amount of sunshine with high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s across the lowlands, with 60s in the mountains. Lows Saturday and Sunday night will generally be in the 50s across the lowlands, with mid 40s to low 50s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Friday... A return of unsettled weather is expected for the new work week courtesy of a slow-moving disturbance progged to impact the area. The chance for ISO/SCT showers/storms returns on Monday and Monday night as an associated warm front lifts north towards the area, with the best chance for rain being the south/central portions of the CWA. More widespread showers/storms return Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday as low pressure slowly approaches/crosses the region, with a general drying trend expected late Thursday into Friday. Given recent rainfall, some hydro concerns are certainly possible as the week goes on. Temperatures are progged to be near normal or slightly below throughout the period, with the chillest day expected to be Thursday as an upper trough builds into the region. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 211 PM Friday... Showers and thunderstorms will be commonplace this afternoon. Some will likely be strong to severe containing damaging winds, hail, heavy rain, and the chance for an isolated tornado or two. MVFR and IFR conditions should be expected through the afternoon as a result. Winds will be breezy and gusty through the afternoon as well, even if there are no thunderstorms in the vicinity of a terminal. Gusts between 25 and 35 knots are possible. Models show a slight break in activity between ~23z and ~02z where VFR ceilings and vsbys may slide in ahead of a stronger storm complex slated to move in from the west between ~02z and ~06z. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concern with this line of storms. Gusts above 40 knots are possible with this system when it moves through. IFR conditions or lower will likely accompany these storms. Activity will taper off after ~08z tonight as the storm complex exits to the east, but some lingering showers, MVFR/IFR ceilings, and gusty winds will likely reside across portions of the area going into Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L H M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by late Tuesday and continue at times into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through late tonight for WVZ005>007-013>015- 024>026-033-034-515>518. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ523-526. OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ086-087. KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GW/LTC NEAR TERM...JZ/LTC SHORT TERM...GW LONG TERM...GW AVIATION...LTC ####018008903#### FXUS64 KMAF 162002 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 302 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 301 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 - High winds and blowing dust expected early next week, mainly in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. - Critical fire weather conditions expected to impact southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 WPC Surface Analysis depicts a weak cold front moving southeast throughout the day today, with both deterministic and ensemble models indicating weak ridging persisting, with 500 mb geopotential heights 582 to 588 decameters and 1000-500 mb thicknesses largely between 570 and 576 decameters. This maintains warmer than average temperatures for the area today despite the passage of the cold front. The biggest effect of the cold front will be gusty westerly winds later this afternoon and evening, especially over the SE NM plains into Guadalupes, Davis Mountains, and Marfa Plateau. VIS/IR satellite imagery indicates scattered clouds, continuing the scattered to broken day cloud conditions we've seen for the last week. With the weak ridging aloft, westerly downsloping winds, and occasional interruptions to solar radiation from passing cloud cover, NBM highs today rise to 3 to 8 degrees above average, translating to lower to mid 90s, mid to upper 80s Lea County, westernmost Eddy County into Marfa Plateau, upper 70s to lower 80s, and upper 90s with triple digits from the Big Bend into southern Terrell County. There is medium to high probability in ensembles of highs at least 85F and winds are least 15 mph from SE NM plains into Stockton Plateau into this evening, and medium probability of highs at least 90F and winds at least 15 mph for Terrell County, so we are expecting the warmest and windiest conditions along this corridor. As is usually the case during the warmer months of the year, there is at least a medium probability of highs into the triple digits, but with highest probability today over southern Terrell County. Tonight, NBM lows end up 8 to 12 degrees above average, ranging from upper 50s to lower 60s from Marfa Plateau and SE NM plains into northern Permian Basin, and upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere, as continued scattered to broken cloud cover limits radiational cooling and light southerly winds maintain WAA. There is a medium to high probability from the Upper Trans Pecos into Terrell County and the Rio Grande basins that lows will not fall below 70F, and a similar probability of highs remaining above 75F in the Big Bend. There is a medium to high probability of lows below 65F only over Eddy County into northern Lea County tonight, with highest probability of lows getting down below 60F only in westernmost Eddy County and northernmost Lea County. By Saturday, NBM highs once again warm back into the mid to upper 80s for cooler spots of northern Lea County and Guadalupes into Marfa Plateau, with lower to mid 90s, upper 90s to triple digits along the Rio Grande. Medium to high probability of highs at least 95F from Upper Trans Pecos into Terrell County and Big Bend are present, and low to medium probability of highs up to the triple digits in the Big Bend. A high probability of highs between 80F and 85F is present over Davis Mountains and Guadalupes into westernmost Eddy County into northern Lea County. Lows Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight with less high clouds allowing for more radiational cooling, with NBM lows 4 to 8 degrees above average, ranging from mid 50s higher elevations into northern SE NM plains and northwest Permian Basin, to lower to mid 60s lower elevations of Marfa Plateau into Upper Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, and upper 60s into lower 70s southern Rio Grande basins into Terrell County and southeast Permian Basin. In ensembles, a high probability of lows less than 65F is once again present over higher elevations into SE NM plains, and a medium to high probability of lows only falling into the 70F to 75F range from Upper Trans Pecos into Terrell County and Big Bend. While temperatures remain warm throughout the short term, rain chances stay near zero and dew point temperatures below 50F, so it will continue to feel dry. There will not be much change into next week, as you can read in the long term discussion. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 An upper-level trough over the western CONUS is forecast to lift across the Four Corners and southern Rockies Sunday into Sunday night. Another reinforcing shortwave will round across the base of the trough axis over these same locations Monday into Monday night. Dry southwesterly flow aloft will generally prevail across our forecast area Sunday into Monday in advance of this system. Surface low pressure will deepen over the vicinity of eastern Colorado and western Kansas Sunday afternoon, with an associated lee surface trough axis extending southward across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. Increased winds within southwesterly flow aloft and in the low levels along the trough axis will bring breezy to windy conditions to our much of our forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening. Low level thermal ridging along the surface trough axis will result in very warm temperatures in the 90s over much of the region, except 80s in the mountains and readings as hot as 102-107 along the Rio Grande. The dryline looks to mix east to just about all of our CWA on Sunday afternoon. The exception will be the far eastern Basin/western Low Rolling Plains where an isolated storm or two could develop along the dryline by early Sunday evening. Any storm that develops could potentially become severe, but the best prospects for severe convection will be well to the east and northeast of our CWA Sunday. Similar conditions persist into Monday, with mainly hot/breezy conditions persisting across the region. A weak cold front pushes through the region on Tuesday, bringing increased northwesterly to co and the higher terrain areas of west Texas on Sunday. northerly winds behind this feature. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler in the 80s over most areas except 90s along the Rio Grande. Temperatures increase back into the 90s for most by the middle to latter part of the week. A shortwave trough and increased moisture could bring a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms from the Van Horn Corridor to the Marfa Plateau/Big Bend on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR VIS and CIGs throughout TAF period. Southerly to southwesterly winds expected at terminals, with strongest winds 15 to 20 knots from TAF period into 01Z-04Z Saturday, and again 14Z into end of period. 14Z into end of period, gusts up to 25 knots expected for terminals in SE NM plains, with gusts 15 to 20 knots elsewhere. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Fire weather concerns will increase this weekend given the combination of very low RH, windy conditions, and very dry fuels. 20-ft winds will increase over the weekend, especially across the higher terrain and adjacent plains where gusts will reach over 40 mph. RH's will bottom out each afternoon at critical levels with values on Sunday and Monday in the single digits. Fuels have dried significantly over the past week with ERC values now above the 50th percentile and some locations expected to be above the 90th percentile by Sunday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain areas of west Texas on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 65 96 68 97 / 0 0 10 10 Carlsbad 68 92 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 72 100 72 103 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 72 96 68 98 / 0 0 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 64 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 64 90 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 69 95 67 97 / 0 0 10 10 Odessa 69 94 66 96 / 0 0 10 10 Wink 66 95 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NM...&& $$ SHORT TERM...94 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...94 ####018010500#### FXUS61 KAKQ 162003 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 403 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through late this evening. Warm temperatures are again expected on Saturday with low-end chances for storms near the coast. High pressure briefly returns for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures cool down and conditions become unsettled into the middle of next week as an upper level low pressure system develops west of the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible between 4-9 PM across the entire area. The main threat with this is damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, with a low-end threat for large hail and/or a brief tornado. - A second round of storms is possible after 2-3 AM tonight, which could pose a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts. However, this is highly uncertain and depends on the evolution of the initial round of storms. The flow aloft remains WSW late this morning as upper ridging slowly pushes to our east. A prominent upper low (stacked atop strong sfc low pressure) continues to spin over the Upper Midwest. Still no prominent surface features nearby, with a cold front still well to our NW and high pressure well offshore to our SE. Dry/very war, wx continues with temps around 90F and mid 60s-lower 70s dew pts, but am watching strong to severe tstms across SW Virginia. In addition, a few severe storms have formed near the MD/DE border that are exhibiting supercellular characteristics. The environment is characterized by steep low/mid-level lapse rates, strong instability (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 40-50 kt effective shear (mainly speed shear as hodographs are mostly straight). Strong to severe storms may impact the MD Eastern Shore during the next couple of hours. Otherwise, we're watching the convection in western VA which is expected to reach the Piedmont by 4-5 PM. This is the main area of convection that we'll be watching for potential severe wx. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the entire area until 03z/11 PM to account for the threat. There are still uncertainties with respect to convective coverage later this aftn/this evening. But consensus (as well as upstream trends) show that at least a broken line of tstms will cross the CWA from west to east between 4 PM and 9 PM. This is also supported by the WoFS This solution is shown by most of the incoming 12z/16 CAMs. Given the environmental parameters mentioned above (which are much more favorable for severe wx than we typically see in the Mid- Atlantic), the main threat will be for severe wind gusts (potentially to 70 mph). Large hail will also be possible (have seen reports of 1.75" hail just to our north). Can't rule out a brief tornado as well, but a lack of directional shear will mitigate the tornado threat. There will likely be a break in the storms late this evening-early tonight before a second round of storms potentially approaches early Sat AM (after 2-3 AM). However, these will be weakening as they approach but will pose a low-end threat for damaging wind gusts. Also, if the first round comes through as advertised, this will act to stabilize the environment and thus further lessen the threat for additional severe wind early Sat AM. Have raised PoPs to ~50% through the evening to account for increased confidence in the first round of convection and will maintain chc PoPs later tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for the entire area. Lows tonight should be very reminiscent of summer and range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Very warm Saturday with a slight chance of thunderstorms across SE VA and NE NC. - Drying out later Saturday into Sunday behind a cold front. Another hot day is ahead for Saturday ahead of a cold front as morning convection should dissipate by 6-9 AM. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with the warmest temps across the SE. The main change in the forecast for Saturday is the waning confidence in severe wx (and also convective initiation during the aftn) as winds become west and dew pts fall during the aftn (especially inland). Will keep 20% PoPs across SE VA/NE NC to account for additional tstm development between 2-8 PM. There will still likely be a highly conditional severe threat across the SE given strong sfc heating and still decent shear in place. Of course, confidence is low regarding any sort of convective initiation. Given this, SPC has maintained a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal) severe weather risk near the coast. The main threat would again be damaging winds, with large hail also possible. With drier air filtering in behind the front Saturday night, expect cooler low temps in the lower to mid 60s. Still quite warm for Sunday/Monday as only modest cold advection occurs behind the front. Highs in the lower to mid 80s both days, warmest across the S and SE and coolest on the Eastern Shore. Overnight lows Sun night drop into the 50s inland and lower 60s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather returns later Tuesday through Thursday. - Below average temperatures return by late next week and likely last into next weekend. Unsettled wx returns for the mid to late week period as an upper level low is progged to track from the Midwest to the east coast from Tuesday through Thursday, before slowly exiting to the NE by Friday/Friday night. While the specifics remain unclear with differences among the deterministic guidance, Tuesday night- Wednesday looks like the wettest period, with a drying trend expected by Thu as cooler air filters in from the NW. With the increased precipitation chances, temperatures trend cooler...and likely below seasonal norms...by Wednesday and Thursday. Below normal temperatures remain favored through the end of the week and looking ahead to Memorial Day weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Friday... VFR conditions prevail at the terminals this afternoon with SCT cumulus. However, scattered showers/tstms (some strong to severe with brief gusts to 50 kt) across western VA will track toward the area and potentially impact the terminals between 21-02z. Will maintain PROB30 groups at all of the terminals for a 3-4 hour window and will amend as needed if it is clear that a storm is approaching. There will likely be a break in the storms from 02-07z. A complex of storms will form well to our west and weaken as it approaches early Saturday morning. However, this second round of convection may impact the area (especially RIC/SBY) between 07-12z. Will have VCSH for now given low confidence. Additional showers/storms will remain possible into early Saturday morning. Breezy on Sat with W-WSW winds of 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Isolated showers and storms are possible near the coast Saturday afternoon, but PoPs are only ~20%. Outlook...Prevailing VFR conditions are expected over the weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... As of 400 PM EDT Friday... ey Messages... - Severe storms possible through this evening with wind gusts in excess of 50 kt possible. - SW winds gusting to 20 to 25 kt in the lower Chesapeake Bay/ York/James Rivers and Currituck Sound on Saturday. A small craft advisory is in effect. - More tranquil marine weather expected Sunday into early next week. SW winds mostly 10 kt or less across the waters this afternoon with a weak trough across the waters. The main concern through this evening will be the chances for severe thunderstorms and the potential for severe wind gusts. Currently one storm just north of Ocean City that will likely impact the far northern Coastal Waters near the MD/DE waters for the next few hours. However, latest high resolution forecast guidance suggests that strong to severe storms will impact the waters perhaps as early as 5 to 7 pm over the central Chesapeake Bay and 6 to 9 pm over the remainder of the waters. These storms have the potential for wind gusts in excess of 50 kt and large hail as they move through. Any storm threat should exit by 9 to 10 pm. The pressure gradient picks up over the waters somewhat on Saturday ahead of the cold front. These southwest winds will become rather gusty over land, however some of these 20kt gusts will likely impact the southern Chesapeake Bay, James/York Rivers and Currituck Sound. As such, have issued a small craft advisory for these areas on Saturday into Saturday evening. SW winds decrease early Saturday evening as the front pushes through. Behind the front, winds gradually turn west then northwest on Sunday. Low pressure then deepens over the Canadian Maritimes Sun night into Monday which should allow for NW winds to increase to around 15 kt across the waters. May need small craft advisories with this northerly surge but there is still some uncertainty. Winds gradually turn to the east by Tuesday as low pressure develops to the west of the area and a frontal boundary stays south of the region. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Flood Warnings continue along the James River, at Richmond- Westham, and Richmond Locks have crested, but will remain in minor flood stage through Friday night. See water.noaa.gov for more site- specific information. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-636>638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SW NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...ERI/SW LONG TERM...KMC/SW AVIATION...ERI MARINE...MRD HYDROLOGY... ####018005181#### FXUS65 KLKN 162004 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 * A few strong thunderstorms Saturday * Robust, gusty northwest winds Sunday * Slick roads over passes and summits Sunday * Freezing temperatures Sunday night && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 The next storm system will impact Northern and Central Nevada Saturday through Sunday night, resulting in periods of valley rain and mountain snow. A few strong thunderstorms are anticipated Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The snow level will drop to around 5,500 feet Sunday morning. As a result, snow should fall over passes and summits along Highways and Interstate 80 Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 An Eastern Pacific trough of low pressure will make landfall along the coast of the Pacific Northwest tonight. Precipitation ahead of this trough of low pressure will spread eastward across Northern and Central Nevada Saturday morning. A few strong thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening along and just ahead of a cold front. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes and wind gusts near 45 mph. Here are thunderstorm probabilities for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon: Jackpot - 41% Owyhee - 39% Wells - 34% Elko - 33% Spring Creek - 33% Carlin -31% Eureka - 29% Winnemucca - 28% Ely - 27% Battle Mountain - 26% In wake of the aforementioned cold front, snow levels will drop to around 5,500 feet Sunday morning. This will result in snow falling over passes and summits along Highways and Interstate 80 Sunday. There will be little to no accumulation, although roadways over passes and summits could become slick in spots. Strong, gusty northwest winds are anticipated Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. A Wind Advisory may be required. Low temperatures Sunday night will be about ten degrees below normal for this time of year. Temperatures should fall below freezing in the coldest valleys of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night. Take precautions to protect vegetation from freezing temperatures. Here are probabilities of temperatures below 32 degrees for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night: Ely - 90% Eureka - 85% Elko - 75% Spring Creek - 75% Battle Mountain - 65% Carlin - 65% Wells - 65% Jackpot - 65% Owyhee - 60% Winnemucca - 55% An upper-level area of low pressure will open up into a trough of low pressure as it progresses southeastward across Utah Monday. A ridge of high pressure will pass eastward over Nevada Monday night. Zonal flow aloft should keep the storm track north of the Silver State Tuesday through next Friday. A warming trend is expected Monday through next Friday. By next Friday afternoon, maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be around ten degrees above seasonal values. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions expected at all terminals through Saturday morning. Gusty winds in the 18-22KT range at KTPH, KEKO, and KELY Friday evening will subside after sunset Friday night. On Saturday a storm system moves into the area lowering CIGs and increasing precipitation across the state through Saturday evening. Showers are expected at KWMC and KBAM by 0600 and a couple hours later at KEKO with CIGs around 3000FT at those terminals leading to intermittent MVFR and IFR conditions. Wind gusts will increase substantially Saturday morning as the system moves into the area ranging from 22-30KTs at all terminals through Saturday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 104 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 A weather system will impact all zones Saturday with precipitation and winds. Precipitation will initiate in zone 437 early Saturday morning and increase in coverage across the rest of the forecast area through midday Saturday. Thunderstorm development is possible as early as Saturday morning over northern NV zones and will also increase in coverage across the rest of the forecast area through early evening. Precipitation will begin to wane from west to east across the forecast area early Sunday morning. Lingering rain and snow showers are anticipated to persist for zones 438, 469, 470, and 425 until early Monday morning. Saturday afternoon wind gusts will fall below warning criteria but still reach around 30 mph shifting westerly to northwesterly through the afternoon for zones 425, 426, and 427 before subsiding Saturday evening after sunset. RH values well stay well above criteria levels with the system overhead impacting the region on Saturday. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ KEY MESSAGES...87 SYNOPSIS...87 DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99