####018005720#### FXUS65 KPIH 162007 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 207 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms today across northern parts of the area. - Frost Advisory in effect for portions of Eastern Idaho from 2 to 8 AM Saturday. - Another potent low pressure system expected for the weekend bringing more rain/storms and cold temperatures Sunday after milder temperatures on Saturday. - Gradual improvement expected early next week with a warmup likely mid/late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are a bit more limited in coverage today, but that doesn't mean everyone is getting a break from the activity as a weak shortwave passes through our area. While we've seen showers moving into the I-15 corridor early this afternoon, the bulk of our thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be confined to our northeast corner/Island Park area, or generally north and east of Idaho Falls. Temperatures this afternoon will be back into the low 60s in the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River Plain and remain a couple of degrees cooler in the upper Snake River Plain thanks to cloud cover and showers. Storms today are expected to remain the "garden variety" as we have little CAPE today (we're talking 100-300 J/kg tops), 0-6 km shear of 25 to 30 kts in the vicinity of Clark and Fremont counties, and modest laps rates of 6.5 deg C/km. So, max wind gusts today with storms would most likely be around 40. In addition, it's just a bit breezy in general today with wind gusts for many around 25 to 30 mph. Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s and 40s area wide in our lower elevations, so we have a Frost Advisory out for several zones where temperatures are expected to be at or below 36 deg F early Saturday morning. It's a bit tricky, because there's about a 70 to 80 percent chance temperatures will remain above that 36 degree threshold in Pocatello and Idaho Falls, but will drop quickly as you move outside of town. On Saturday, a strong cold front will sweep through Eastern Idaho and bring another round of rain and storms with it. With these storms, we will have better "ingredients" for some stronger to even marginally severe storms. A NAMNest sounding shows around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE in the Snake River Plain on Saturday, around 40 kts of 0-6 km shear, and lapse rates around 8.0 deg C/km. These values are plenty sufficient for marginally severe storms with the potential for wind gusts up to 65 mph. We will warm up into the mid and upper 60s Saturday ahead of the cold front, but look for a sharp drop in temperatures by Sunday. In fact, as temperatures drop we will see an increasing chance for accumulating snow Saturday night through Sunday morning. At this point, the bulk of the snow will fall above pass level, but there still remains about a 50 to 60 percent chance of at least 2 inches of snow and a 20 to 30 percent chance of at least 4 inches of snow at Galena Summit. Overall, we're looking at decent QPF across the entire CWA with about a quarter of an inch of liquid in our valley locations by Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 205 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Upper low over East Idaho during the day Sunday for continued wet and cool conditions most of East Idaho. Another day with highs in the 40s/lower 50s is anticipated. Snow levels drop as low as 5500- 6000 ft during the day leading to snow accumulation over higher elevations. The greatest snowfall accumulations likely over the Central Mountains, but the heaviest snowfall should remain confined to high elevations so we are not thinking headlines as this point in time. Areas along/east of I-15 look to be the warmest, and thus most unstable with greatest chance of an afternoon/evening thunderstorm. Beginning Monday, upper low looks to shift far enough east of the region to see a decreasing precipitation trend through the day for most areas. Temperatures warm over the low weekend values Monday and beyond. Weak shortwave activity through the week could be enough for isolated shower/thunderstorm development each afternoon Tuesday through Friday, mainly in the northern portions of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Satellite and radar imagery shows weak shortwave feature moving through East Idaho today. Winds are breezy throughout the Snake Plain, strongest at PIH with gusts approaching 30kts. Expect that activity to decrease around sunset. Radar shows a few weak echoes late this morning, but so far only SUN has been able to record any precipitation. Tentatively removed VCSH from PIH and IDA as confidence was lower that any precipitation would reach the ground. Better chances for TSRA occurring at DIJ this afternoon, and left PROB30 in place. Should be a break in the potential precipitation late this afternoon through mid-evening for all terminals, followed by VFR cigs overnight. Next shortwave drives showers into the region during the day Saturday. Added PROB30 TSRA for SUN after 18Z, but should be seeing more widespread SHRA all sites by late morning. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM MDT Saturday for IDZ051>054. && $$ SHORT TERM...AMM LONG TERM...DMH AVIATION...DMH ####018016045#### FXUS63 KLOT 162008 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 308 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A threat of rapid fire spread continues this afternoon due to a combination of strong winds and low relative humidity. - South to southwest winds will gust 45 to 50 mph through this evening for areas around and northwest of I-55. Where little to no rain fell on Thursday, blowing dust will result in locally lower visibility. - Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and early evening, with a threat level 1 to 2 out of 5 across much of the area and a level 3 out of 5 closer to central Illinois and west-central Indiana. && .MESOSCALE... Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Quick update... Vigorous shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery from northwest MO northeast into eastern IA is moving gradually eastward. Synoptic ascent ahead of this feature is likely aiding in the recent convective development just west of RFD. Objective analysis suggests there is about 500 J/kg of MLCAPE with minimal inhibition. As the trough continues to pivot eastward this afternoon, could see this area of scattered high based convection filling in and developing southward as the entire area shifts gradually eastward into our CWA. This convection is developing in an area of unusually dry boundary layer conditions with classic (for the high Plains) inverted-V soundings. The result is very large DCAPE values (>1000 J/kg) which suggests that any of the more robust cores could produce very localized damaging downburst winds. Otherwise, we'll continue to monitor storms farther south toward ST. Louis for potential northward expansion eventually into our northern CWA. - Izzi Previous Mesoscale discussion below... Main focus for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening continues to be across my southeastern counties of eastern central IL into northwestern IN. This includes areas generally along and east of I-55 and along and south of I-80. Prior to the severe storm threat, strong gusty winds and low afternoon RH's will promote a high fire danger for portions of northern IL. Mainly clear skies and a parched airmass overhead is fostering deep boundary layer mixing that is allowing temperatures to quickly warm through the lower 80s as of 11 AM. Continued mixing of this very warm and dry boundary layer is expected this afternoon, likely mixing in excess 8,000 ft. This deep mixing will promote steady (or even falling) surface dewpoints in the 40s as surface temperatures warm into the middle to upper 80s, and will also result in increasingly gusty south-southwest winds through the day. The strongest wind gusts this afternoon and evening are generally expected along and northwest of the I-55 corridor, where gusts of 45 to perhaps as high as 55 mph are anticipated. This has prompted the recent issuance of a wind advisory for this area, as well as a targeted Red Flag Warning within portions of this wind advisory. While a parched and very deeply mixed boundary layer is not typically associated with storm development, we are expecting a rather impressive northward surge of low-level moisture (surface dew points up around 60) along and east of the I-55 corridor very late this afternoon (after 4 PM) and into the evening just in advance of an eastward shifting cold front/dryline feature. This corridor of better low-level moisture currently resides across southern MO and IL, and is noted by a late morning uptick in CU development on regional Satellite imagery. This increasingly moist and unstable airmass is expected to foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development across parts of eastern MO and southwestern IL into early this afternoon. Thereafter, storm coverage is expected increase as large scale forcing for ascent increases in response to a notable mid-level impulse over the mid-Missouri Valley quickly swinging eastward along the southern periphery of the upper low residing in the Upper Midwest. As storm coverage increases, severe storms will develop northward across IL through the afternoon ahead of the dry line feature within the northward surging airmass. The area we are most concerned with for these severe thunderstorms are in areas generally along and east of I-55 and along and south of I-80, with the main timeframe looking to be from 4 to 10 pm this evening. More isolated storm coverage is possible northwest of this area. The presence of very steep low-to-mid level lapse rates and inverted V-type soundings with high DCAPE (in excess of 1,000 j/kg) will foster very strong downdrafts and outflow with these storms. Accordingly, the primary severe weather threat with this activity looks to be damaging winds, some perhaps destructive (75+ mph). Some instances of large hail also cannot be ruled out. Expect the storm threat to wane by mid to late evening as the cold front/dry line shifts east of the area. KJB && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Through tonight: A large upper-level low over Minnesota has brought continued SW flow aloft into our region, ultimately resulting a relatively uncommon High-Plains pattern across northern Illinois today. Earlier today, a very dry airmass upstream per WV 12Z KSGF RAOB and WV imagery over Missouri has advected over the northwest half of Illinois amid deep diurnal mixing. This has pushed RH values as low as the upper teens over the western CWA as S/SSW winds gust 35 to 40 mph. This prompted an earlier issuance of a Red Flag Warning for critical fire wx conditions across portions of the forecast area where little to no rain fell on Thursday, though elevated fire wx conditions are occurring elsewhere (covered by a Special Weather Statement) this afternoon. Meanwhile, deep mixing into 40kt+ flow aloft should begin to generate sporadic surface gusts to 45 mph or briefly higher mid to late afternoon for areas around and northwest of I-55. Then, as a surface trough crosses the area late this afternoon into this evening, a favorable isallobaric component to an already strong synoptic gradient combined with modest residual mixing with CAA could yield SW gusts to 50 mph for a period this evening. Have therefore maintained a Wind Advisory for the aforementioned locations through midnight. While there is no headline specifically in effect for blowing dust, observations from gusty winds in rural areas on Thursday support maintaining a mention of patchy blowing dust in the forecast grids and Wind Advisory through this evening. No substantial changes have been made regarding the severe thunderstorm potential late this afternoon into early evening (see the latest Mesoscale discussion update for more detailed information). However, observational trends as of 3pm as well as near-term CAM guidance continue to favor areas south of a Pontiac to DeMotte line for the highest chances of severe convection as the northern edge of the discrete cells over southwest Illinois ride a northward-advacing plume of modest low-level moisture. Farther north, a gradual increase in high-based cumulus coverage will be a focus for at least isolated storm development across the remainder of the forecast area. Kluber Saturday through Friday: The big, vertically stacked, low pressure will be over northern Lake Michigan early Saturday morning with continued gusty westerly winds and extensive stratocumulus deck across our area to the south of the upper low. This system will move eastward away from the area during the day Saturday, which should allow cloudiness to scatter out some during the afternoon. Pressure gradient will begin to ease some Saturday afternoon, though deepening mixing of the boundary layer may offset the decreasing gradient and slow the decrease in winds during the afternoon. By sunset winds will quick subside as boundary layer decouples. A sprawling ~1030 mb high will build east across Ontario and the Hudson Bay on Sunday with mid-level shortwave ridging forecast to build in across the local forecast area. This high to our north with send a robust afternoon and evening lake breeze/backdoor front through the entire region. This will end up holding lakeside highs in the mid/upper 50s, while inland locales will likely warm into the 70s prior to the lake breeze push. While some guidance hints at the potential for some intermittent lower cloud cover on Sunday, most indications are that any morning cloud cover should scatter into the afternoon. On Sunday night into Monday, a sharpening warm frontal zone well to our south will slowly advance northward into southern Iowa, northeast Missouri, and southern Illinois. Increasing low-level warm advection in response to strengthening 925-850 mb southwesterlies overtopping this frontal zone will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms, but given the current location of the aforementioned boundary and MUCAPE gradient, most/all of this activity through Sunday night looks to remain well to our south. Even into the day on Monday any activity locally currently looks like it should remain isolated to scattered, with deeper moisture still relegated to our south. Forecast soundings off the GFS in particular look like they'd be more supportive of intermittent drizzle/showers as opposed to thunderstorms. On Monday night into Tuesday, guidance pushes a modest surface low (near 1000 mb) towards northern Missouri/southern Iowa as a robust shortwave pivots across the central plains. During this time, the northward progress of the returning warm front is forecast to slow, with the boundary overall becoming quasistationary across central to downstate Illinois. Isentropic upglide will increase once again, likely leading to a nocturnal expansion of showers and storms which--depending on the precise location of the stalled front--may begin to push into our forecast area, particularly south of about I-80. Could end up being a locally heavy rainfall threat somewhere in the vicinity with this setup. Thereafter, guidance generally depicts a complex upper pattern developing, with a series of upper lows/gyres pinwheeling around one another into the middle of the week. This general evolution will keep the threat for intermittent periods of rain with embedded thunderstorms going in the vicinity, at least into Wednesday. There's a signal for things to dry out into the end of the week. Izzi/Carlaw && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Forecast concerns for the terminals... - Gusty south-southwest winds this afternoon with 35-40 kt gusts likely. - Scattered thunderstorms expected late this afternoon and evening (22-02z). A few storms may be severe with damaging winds and hail as the main threat. - Period of MVFR ceilings tonight into Saturday morning. - Winds become westerly behind cold front with gusts in the 25-30 kt range tonight through Saturday. Winds have continued to increase as diurnal mixing has commenced across the area this afternoon. While gusts have generally be around 30 kts thus far, gusts are expected to peak in the 35-40 kt range this afternoon and early evening. A cold front will move through the area this evening which will turn winds from south-southwest to westerly where they will remain through the rest of the period. Gusts are expected to subside a bit overnight as diurnal mixing weakens, but 28-30 kt gusts should prevail overnight before easing into the 25-30 kt range on Saturday. Outside of the winds, there is also the potential for scattered thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon and evening (between 22z and 02z) especially over far northeast IL and northwest IN. Confidence on storms occurring has increased slightly since this morning as a plume of low-level moisture has started to move towards the area from southern MO. However, a fair amount of uncertainty remains in storm coverage particularly with northward extent. Therefore, have maintained the TEMPO groups at the Chicago area terminals but did decided to include a VCSH mention at RFD. Given that the threat for storms is around 20% at RFD and most guidance has storms developing east of the airport, feel the confidence is still to low for a formal TS mention. Additionally, any storms that develop will have the capability of producing winds in excess of 50 kts and large hail possibly up to golf ball size. The greatest severe threat is maximized southeast of a ORD to PNT line. Finally, a period of MVFR ceilings is expected to develop tonight as the upper low over the Dakotas swings overhead. Ceilings should generally be in the 2500-3000 ft range but lower clouds may develop in southern WI and near RFD. MVFR conditions should lift back to VFR by mid-morning on Saturday with skies gradually clearing through the end of the period. Yack && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Southerly winds are expected to gust to gales to 35 kt this afternoon for mainly the IL nearshore waters and through Gary in the IN nearshore. Winds will shift westerly this evening as a cold front moves across southern Lake Michigan. Winds may continue to gust to near gale force with and just behind this cold front. Gusts will then diminish slightly, into the 25-30kt range which will continue through early Saturday evening. cms && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A fire weather watch remains in effect for all of northeast IL this afternoon. Much drier air has spread across western and northern IL and is expected to remain in place through mid afternoon. Dewpoints may lower a few more degrees, into the mid 40s and combined with high temperatures in the middle, to perhaps upper 80s, minimum relative humidity levels in the 20 to 25 percent range are possible this afternoon. Southwesterly winds will steadily increase this morning into this afternoon with gusts into the 40-45 mph range expected this afternoon. This combination of low relative humidity and strong winds will create the potential for rapid wildfire spread. A limiting factor is that some areas received heavier rainfall from the storms Thursday afternoon. Low level moisture is expected to surge back north late this afternoon into early this evening, with dewpoints in the upper 50s, perhaps lower 60s, east of I-55. There will also be a chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon into early this evening for areas along and east of I-55. The combination of rising relative humidity levels as well as possible rainfall will end the wildfire risk by early this evening. cms && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ003-ILZ004- ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019- ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ032-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021. IN...None. LM...Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Winthrop Harbor IL to Gary IN. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Gary to Burns Harbor IN-Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/chicago ####018008992#### FXUS64 KEPZ 162009 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 209 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy Saturday, then windy again Sunday/Monday with widespread blowing dust and critical fire danger. - Dry weather through the week ahead as lowland temperatures warm to the mid-to-upper nineties by Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 The windy season is about to have its last hoorah in the form of an upper trough swinging into the Great Basin/central Rockies this weekend. Before it impacts us Sun/Mon, a weak cut-off low off the Baja gets swept up into the synoptic flow and brings us more high-level moisture for Saturday. Cloud cover looks to thicken a bit by the AM ahead of the shortwave with a few virga showers possible. The low levels will be way too dry for any precip to reach the ground before the trough exits to the east tomorrow afternoon. The shortwave induces a modest lee cyclone around NE NM for the afternoon, allowing for breezy PM winds from the SW with gusts to around 35 mph and patchy BLDU along the Int'l border into the evening. For Sunday, a strong upper trough digs into the Four Corners, resulting in a 990-ish mb low in SE CO at 0z Mon. Lee troughing develops across NM Sunday afternoon with 850mb winds of 25-35kts. A breezy/windy afternoon is expected along with areas of blowing dust downstream (E-NE) of dust sources. Blowing Dust Advisories may be needed for Sunday for much of the lowlands due to the favorable wind direction and strong enough winds. A few gusts to 50 mph can be seen in area mountains and east slopes on Sunday, but not consistent or widespread enough to warrant any wind advisories at this time. On Monday, another shortwave looks to slide in from the west behind the first one, bringing a Pacific cold front with it. Temperatures won't fall that much behind the boundary, but winds will be as strong or stronger compared to Sunday and shift westerly. The GFS is slower with the front compared to the Euro and its AI model which bring the front through by noon Monday. The GFS has the frontal passage Monday evening, so we still have to iron out specifics in terms of dust potential, wind direction, fire danger, etc. As of now, W winds of 25-35 mph are forecast with gusts to 50 mph for most areas on Monday. Wind Advisories are most favored to be issued for area mtns and east slopes (medium chance of issuance). Areas of blowing dust and reduced VIS are concerns as well with more potential Blowing Dust Advisories Mon. The system quickly ejects to the east Monday night, allowing more tranquil weather to return for the rest of the period. Lighter winds and slightly below normal temps are expected into the middle of next week. Precip chances remain near zero, although some models are hinting at a little cut-off low near the Baja picking up some moisture from the Gulf around midweek. Chances of this seem slim at the moment with the more likely scenario being an upper ridge developing over the Desert SW and heating us up late in the week. Highs approach 100 for KELP beginning on Thursday (55% chance) and continue into next weekend. To put it into context, the average first triple digit day for El Paso is May 31st, so we'd be about a week early compared to the 1991-2020 normal if we hit 100 in this upcoming stretch. Winds will be light to modestly breezy from Tuesday onward. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds become gusty this afternoon from SW to near 20kts, subsiding overnight to AOB 8kts. Some mountain wave activity/downslope flow may result in gustiness at KELP around midnight as winds near mtn peak become breezy. Winds increase again in the late morning tomorrow from SW with patchy BLDU possible Saturday afternoon, outside of this forecast cycle. FEW-BKN250 continue to pass overhead through tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 207 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Worsening fire weather conditions are expected through the weekend. Modestly breezy winds continue into this evening from the southwest, creating some elevated fire danger. For Saturday, winds begin to increase from the southwest with continued dry conditions, resulting in elevated to critical fire danger. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for south-central NM for Saturday afternoon due to 20-ft winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Windy conditions are forecast Sunday and Monday as an upper-level system pushes into the Rockies, creating significant lee-side troughing along the Southern High Plains. Widespread critical to extreme fire danger is expected Sunday with lower confidence for Monday due to the timing of the Pacific cold front. Although winds will remain quite strong for Monday, shifting westerly, the frontal passage could raise RHs to near or even above critical levels if it's fast enough. Fire Wx Watches remain in effect area-wide for Sunday with an upgrade expected within the next 24 hours. Depending on the timing of the front, Monday could follow suit. Typical afternoon breeziness is expected after Monday with low surface moisture content, resulting in elevated fire danger. Fuels will continue to dry this weekend under warm, southwesterly flow with ERCs near or above 90th percentile. Overnight recoveries will be poor through Saturday night, becoming fair to good early next week. Temperatures will be near or below normal through early next week with no threat of rain. Min RHs range from 5-12% with the mountains at 12-20% on Monday due to the cold front. Vent rates will be excellent through Monday, then good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 66 92 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 87 56 87 / 0 10 0 0 Las Cruces 56 86 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 86 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 62 42 61 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 56 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 50 77 46 74 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 55 87 50 87 / 0 10 0 0 Lordsburg 53 84 47 82 / 0 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 60 90 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 64 95 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 61 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 64 92 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 87 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 85 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 87 51 86 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 61 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 59 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 74 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 73 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 46 71 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 43 75 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 82 48 80 / 0 10 0 0 Spaceport 52 84 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 77 42 74 / 0 10 0 0 Hurley 48 80 44 78 / 0 10 0 0 Cliff 47 83 44 81 / 0 10 0 0 Mule Creek 46 79 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 79 47 77 / 0 10 0 0 Animas 53 85 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 84 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 53 78 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson