####018006460#### FXUS65 KPSR 162020 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 120 PM MST Fri May 16 2025 ...Key Message... 1) Gusty winds over the weekend resulting targeted advisories and locally elevated fire danger 2) Substantial warming trend latter half of next week resulting in widespread moderate HeatRisk .DISCUSSION... Weather Pattern Overview: Broadly cyclonic flow continues over the SW Conus with a subtle, but otherwise innocuous shortwave ejecting over northern Mexico early this afternoon. However, WV imagery shows a robust upstream jet core with a strong vorticity center nearing the Pacific NW poised to buckle the flow pattern and create deep negative height anomalies over the Great Basin this weekend. Height falls will begin to impact the CWA Saturday with the leading jet max cresting the coastal range during an extremely favorable afternoon time frame for downsloping winds and mountain rotors. In fact, GFS BUFR soundings continue to suggest 40-50kt compressed in the sfc-H9 layer surging down the leeward side of the San Diego mountains Saturday evening where advisories currently exist. However, with the initial shortwave already ejecting towards the central high plains by Sunday morning and secession of height falls, the strongest advisory level winds should be rather short lived. Behind the first wave, a secondary robust negative PV anomaly will dig into the trough axis late Sunday and Monday acting to reinforce cooler tropospheric temperatures and a higher momentum airmass aloft. However, recent model trends are keeping bulk of energy confined to far northern Arizona; and without notable height falls, a reduced pressure/thermal gradient and proximity south of the jet core will keep wind speeds and gusts more muted than previous forecasts. Any modest moisture intrusion ahead of this system also appears reduced with only 4-5 g/kg mixing ratio nowhere near sufficient to achieve saturation under warmer midlevel thermal profiles located on the anti-cyclonic side of the jet core. Given the trend in evolution, temperature forecasts are not nearly as cool as previous iterations, yet still around 5F below normal during the first part of next week. With the downstream flow pattern briefly progressive and re- orienting into a renewed blocking configuration, the entire trough structure will dislodge into the plains by the middle of the week resulting in pronounced height rises and longwave ridging becoming established over the SW Conus. Ensemble mean forecasts suggest H5 heights reaching at least 586dm during the latter half of the week with some of the more aggressive members still around 590dm peak heights. Nevertheless, massive downstream blocking over the eastern Conus and Atlantic basin will ensure a stagnant pattern and some manner of ridging stuck over the forecast area. There are some ensemble members attempting to realign the blocking pattern and erode the ridge axis with Pacific flow by the end of next week, however these type of blocking patterns typically take longer than models indicate to break down. Regardless, rather widespread moderate HeatRisk should take hold of the area towards the end of next week with temperatures nearly 10F above normal. Forecast Confidence & Deviations: Confidence in temperature forecasts remains very good through the weekend with somewhat lower confidence early next week, albeit improving given the consolidating trend among modeling suites keeping shortwave energy further to the north. Should this system end up digging farther south, temperatures would be a few degrees cooler than current forecasts while winds early next week could be somewhat stronger. With a very favorable pattern, have continued to increase wind speeds Saturday afternoon and evening over the automated NBM. Forecast confidence for hotter temperatures during the latter half of the forecast period remains good, but some adjustments to these readings (maybe a 1F-3F higher) may eventually occur, especially over the Memorial Day weekend depending on the pattern evolution. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1722Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast period. Typical diurnal trends will be common at all terminals, with the exception of a more NW'rly component this evening. Speeds will remain at or below 8 kts through this afternoon, but intermittent gusts into the teens will be possible at the Phoenix this afternoon into the evening. Mostly clear skies will prevail over the region. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast period. KIPL will be E'rly through this afternoon, going W'rly by tonight. KBLH will be predominantly S'rly. Winds at both terminals will generally be aob 10kts, but look to increase near the end of the TAF period, especially at KBLH with speeds increasing into the teens. Mostly clear skies will prevail over the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wind speeds will increase markedly Saturday with gusts 20-30 mph becoming common in the afternoon resulting in an elevated fire danger. MinRHs will fall into a 10-15% range Saturday across the eastern districts with readings across the western districts improving to 20-25%. Humidity levels will increase modestly Sunday precluding critical conditions despite heightened wind speeds. Overnight recovery will be fair to poor with readings between 20-30% over the eastern districts and 30-50% over the western districts with some improvement early next week. Very warm and dry weather will return during the middle of next week with minRH in the single digits following poor overnight recovery, however wind speeds will be much weaker as high pressure starts building into the region. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 7 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ562. Wind Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ563- 566-567. && $$ DISCUSSION...18/Kuhlman AVIATION...Ryan FIRE WEATHER...18/Kuhlman ####018002908#### FXUS64 KLZK 162021 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 321 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Latest data from KLZK radar indicate that the isolated, yet very well organized storms that affected north central portions of the forecast area have dissipated or moved out of the forecast area. Very unstable conditions exist area wide, with MLCape values of >= 3500 j/kg noted. Moderate effective shear, along with the pronounced instability, are sufficient to support well defined supercellular convection. 18z KLZK upper air sounding indicates a strong capping inversion around 850 mb. This feature has strengthened substantially since 12z. Recent CAM guidance suggests forcing along a weak cold frontal boundary approaching western parts of the state during the late afternoon and evening hours will be sufficient to overcome the convective inhibition. The resulting convective activity would then spread eastward. Southwesterly surface flow indicates that the overall tornadic potential may be low with this activity. On Saturday, moderately unstable conditions will develop during the afternoon hours. The previously mentioned surface boundary will be in the vicinity to promote strong convection during the afternoon and evening hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Unsettled conditions will prevail until late Tuesday, when a strong cold front moves southeast through the mid south. Dry and relatively cooler conditions are expected during the second half of this forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Greatest coverage of TSRA across the forecast area will be between 23z and 04z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail after 06z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 64 89 65 84 / 30 10 60 60 Camden AR 67 90 68 89 / 70 30 50 20 Harrison AR 58 84 61 81 / 0 0 60 60 Hot Springs AR 64 90 68 87 / 40 20 50 40 Little Rock AR 67 91 69 87 / 60 10 50 50 Monticello AR 71 92 71 90 / 70 10 40 30 Mount Ida AR 63 90 67 86 / 20 30 50 30 Mountain Home AR 58 84 61 81 / 0 0 60 70 Newport AR 64 89 68 85 / 50 0 60 60 Pine Bluff AR 67 91 70 89 / 70 10 50 30 Russellville AR 62 90 67 85 / 20 10 50 50 Searcy AR 64 90 68 85 / 50 10 60 50 Stuttgart AR 69 90 71 86 / 70 10 50 40 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55 ####018008089#### FXUS62 KRAH 162022 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 420 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances moving atop an upper level ridge building across the SE US will support mainly diurnal showers and storms and unseasonably hot temperatures to end the work week. A series of cold fronts will move through the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 420 PM Friday... * A Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for northern portions of central NC. * A risk for strong to severe storms across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain this are possible this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm clusters north of the VA line continue on a easterly path this afternoon. A few clusters could shift south near the VA/NC border this afternoon and evening. There is plenty of CAPE across the northern CWA so any storms that move across the area will have plenty of instability to continue towards the coast. RNK had a special sounding release that showed SBCAPE of 4000 j/kg. While the Hi-Res models have been back and forth all day on coverage and intensity, the best chance for storms to develop over next few hours. However, the high cloud coverage has increased this afternoon reducing some instability and may lower chances of producing any strong storms across the area. This will be an all or nothing event where we could get a few showers and isolated storms or we could get isolated severe storms move across the northern CWA. There will be a break in the showers and storms late this evening/ and overnight before the second round of storms approach the region ahead of a cold front. Expect an uptick in precip after midnight as pre frontal showers and storms develop. Initially these showers and storms are expected to be on the weaker side but an uptick in recent AI model guidance has shown a few stronger storms could develop ahead of the front. This will depend on how stable the atmosphere is from when/if the first round move across the region. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Friday... * There is still a fair bit of uncertainty, however a conditional threat for isolated strong storms Sat aft/eve remains. Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will remain suppressed well south of the area as a closed low tracks ewd across the srn/ern Great Lakes and Northeast US Sat/Sat night. A couple of shortwave disturbances within the attendant trough will move across the region on Sat before the trough shifts ewd out of the area Sat night. At the surface, the parent low will occlude over the Great Lakes on Sat, while a secondary low develops over the Northeast US. The attendant cold front should progress ewd across the area Sat aft/eve as the secondary low lifts newd along the New England coast. Uncertainty: The biggest uncertainty continues to be whether the convection expected to move across the mid-MS and TN Valley regions tonight, will hold together and move into the area early Sat. And if it does move into the area, how long it will hold together. Then, how much the showers and associated cloud cover will stabilize the atmosphere and/or limit destabilization during the aft/eve, thus impacting whether showers will re-develop along the front and move across the area Sat eve/night. Latest hi-res guidance consensus has the showers/iso storms holding together and moving into the western Piedmont around daybreak Sat, then weakening and/or dissipating somewhere over central NC Sat morn. Convection: Forecast soundings off the NAM show destabilization across much of the area (albeit briefly in the NW), with highest CAPE values across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain during the aft/eve. Max MUCAPE around 2000 J/Kg with effective shear around 40 kts at KFAY and KRWI (and briefly at KRDU). Additionally, with 25-35 kts at the top of the mixed layer, wind gusts in that range will be possible until the nocturnal inversion sets up Sat eve. Additional showers/storms could develop during the aft/eve along/ahead of the front if enough destabilization is realized, and could result in strong wind gusts and possibly some hail. However, there is still somewhat low confidence in timing, location, and coverage of that threat, if it materializes. Temperatures: Also dependent on what happens with the early convection Sat morn, but for now expect highs ranging from mid 80s NW to low 90s SE. Based on current timing of the front, expect lows to range from low 60s NW to upper 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 PM Friday... * Largely unsettled weather is expected for the beginning of the extended period, until a cold front moves through the region Wednesday or Thursday. * Temperatures will remain above average until Wednesday, with below average temperatures expected Thursday and Friday. Sunday and Monday, a front is expected to be quasi-stationary to our south. These days are expected to be mostly dry, however afternoon showers may develop in the south depending on how far north the front stalls. Otherwise, temperatures should be around 5 degrees above average, with maximum temperatures on both days in the low 80s in the north, to the upper 80s, maybe reaching low 90s in the south. Sunday and Monday night should also have lows in the 60s. Rain chances increase again Tuesday afternoon as low pressure associated with the previously stalled front progresses north of the region through the mid Atlantic. There is large model spread on the strength, timing, and location of this system, however models are generally showing a warm front moving north through the region on Tuesday, increasing rain chances, and a cold front moving through the region Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning. Thus, there are rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday, which could potentially linger into Thursday. The best chance for widespread rain currently looks to be Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures should fall behind the front, leaving maximum temperatures in the 70s on Thursday. High pressure should build in behind the cold fropa, leaving Friday dry and keeping maximum temperatures in the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM Friday... Forecast confidence is lower than normal wrt to storm potential this afternoon and evening. Upper level ridge arching over the Mid-Atlantic region supporting an increase in cloud coverage and isolated storms this afternoon and evening. A few isolated severe storms could bring flight restrictions to any of the northern TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts will be the main hazard with these storms so along with TSRA in the TAF, added gusts up to 45kts in the PROB30 groups. As the low level jet moves through after the initial round of expected storms, LLWS will be the next aviation hazard late overnight into early Saturday morning. As the upper level trough moves offshore, a cold front will bring another round of flight restrictions Saturday morning. The models have been back and forth on whether or not the line of storms makes its to the region, therefore around line of PROB30s for all TAF sites between 09z and 13z for a chance of thunderstorms with flight restrictions. Outlook: Chances for diurnal isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through much of the period. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially in areas that received significant rainfall the previous day. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...CA SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Helock AVIATION...CA/CBL ####018006380#### FXUS63 KMKX 162022 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 322 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty non-thunderstorm winds are expected across southern WI late this afternoon/evening with gusts of 35-45 mph. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with peak potential (~30-60% chances) being between 3-8 PM. A few storms could produce strong wind gusts and hail, especially for areas east of I- 39/90 corridor. - Much cooler conditions this weekend through the beginning of next week, with below-normal high temps forecast each day. - Next shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) return late Monday through Wednesday. - Temperatures return to near-normal late next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Tonight through Saturday night: Mid-level ripple of vorticity is working across WI this afternoon spurring scattered thunderstorm activity. Right now a majority of it is north of the CWA, but expecting additional development for the remainder of the afternoon through the early evening hours as the surface low tracks across northern WI and the cold front sweeps into southern WI. Seeing this evidence in the latest satellite imagery with building cu field just south of the WI/IL border. With any taller storms can expect to see stronger gusts (50-60 mph) mix down fairly easily given the steep low- level lapse rates. Also could see some hail with some of these storms as SBCAPE is hanging around 500- 1000 J/kg. So will need to monitor through the evening. Otherwise, gusty non-thunderstorm winds with gusts of 30-45 mph will continue through the afternoon and evening as the tight pressure gradient from deep low works its way across the area. Will see the southwesterly winds shift more westerly and weaken a bit as the cold front pushes through tonight. Quieter weather is expected for Saturday, but breezy westerly winds will linger on the backside of the departing low pressure system. With the cooler and drier airmass will see cooler temps for Saturday with highs in the 60s. With high pressure and ridge building over the region overnight Saturday, will see cooler temps overnight dipping back into the upper 40s and 50s. Wagner && .LONG TERM... Issued 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Sunday through Friday: Will continue to see high pressure and upper-level ridging build across the the Upper Great Lakes Sunday into Monday. This will bring drier and cooler weather to the region with lighter winds. Given these conditions will prompt the "cooler by the lake" setup with lake breezes pushing inland keeping areas cooler than inland areas. These areas can expect highs in the 50s with inland areas in the mid to upper 60s. Tuesday into Wednesday, continue to see signal for upper-level trough to undercut the ridge. This looks to track a low pressure across the Mid-Mississippi River and up the Ohio River Valley through the middle of the week. This system will provide southern WI with some nice wetting rain. Not anticipating anything severe as we should be on the northern edge/cool side of the low and dealing with more or a stratiform rain set up. Still a bit of uncertainty in how far south this low may travel and just how much rain we might see, but overall a persisting signal. Mild and comfortable temperatures are expected through mid week with highs in the 60s for inland areas and slightly cooler temperatures near the lake shore in the 50s. Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions continue this afternoon with the main aviation concern being the gusty winds and isolated/scattered thunderstorm chances through this evening. Looking at strong south-southwest winds with gusts of 30-35 kt to continue into the evening as a deep low pressure tracks across central MN into northern WI. Will see winds weaken a bit later this evening as a cold front works its way across the area. However, southwesterly gusts up to around 20-25 kt will linger overnight behind the front. Otherwise, looking scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening mainly between now through 01z. Given the dry airmass and scattered nature of the coverage, will maintain PROB30 for this activity and add tempos when we have higher confidence. Any thunderstorm activity would bring brief reduction in flight conditions along with strong wind gusts and maybe even small hail. As the low shifts east will begin to see some lower ceilings work their way into the area overnight into Saturday morning as well bring some MVFR conditions. Wagner && .MARINE... Issued 318 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Low pressure in west central MN will progress across northwestern WI today, ultimately crossing Lake Superior/northern Lake Michigan tonight. Widespread gusts between 25-30 knots expected to continue across all of the open waters into this evening. Small craft advisory remains in effect for our nearshore waters tonight. A few gusts could briefly approach gale thresholds, though widespread gale potential remain low. The approaching surface low will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms and will be capable of producing small hail and localized strong wind gusts. Otherwise, winds will shift out of the west on Saturday as low pressure moves into Ontario and drags a cold front across the region. Rain chances will continue, particularly across the northern half the open waters. Thunderstorms are not anticipated. Winds will turn out of the northwest Saturday night, when high pressure around 30.0 inches will build into the Upper Mississippi River Valley and remain through the weekend Wagner && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Saturday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee ####018008290#### FXUS65 KPUB 162024 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 224 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow showers this afternoon and again Saturday for high elevations, mainly for the Central Mountains. - A couple of thunderstorms will be possible on the Plains Saturday afternoon, and elevated meteorological fire weather conditions will be present across the San Luis Valley. - Meteorologically, critical fire weather conditions return Sunday. - Mountain showers return Sunday, and expand in coverage area wide Monday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Currently...satellite imagery this afternoon shows widespread cloud cover across the Mountains, spreading east into the Plains. Temperatures are warm, with mostly 70s for the lower elevations, and 60s for the mountain valleys. Winds have been breezy, with gusts near 30 to 35 mph for the higher elevations, down into the gap wind prone areas. Rest of today and tonight...quick moving upper ridging will spread across Colorado this evening and overnight, moving east into Kansas by morning. Weak energy moving through the flow may generate a couple of snow showers over the Central Mountains north of Cottonwood Pass into this evening, with little if any impacts. Any snow showers should dissipate with sunset. Winds across the region should subside this evening, as the gradient eases overhead with the ridging. At the surface, a lee cyclone is forecast to develop near Trinidad, shifting winds northeasterly for most of the Plains. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the 40s across the Plains, and 30s over the San Luis Valley by morning. Saturday...the upper ridging will shift east into the Central Plains early Saturday, while and upper trough digs across the Great Basin. Flow aloft will increase out of the southwest throughout the day. A few snow showers will be possible by late morning through the afternoon from the La Garita Range, north into the Central Mountains. Any impacts will remain confined to the higher peaks. Across the San Luis Valley, drier air will work into the region with elevated fire weather concerns by afternoon. Humidity values will fall lower teens, and wind gusts near 25 to 30 mph are forecast. These will combine to produce critical fire weather meteorological conditions through the afternoon. Southeasterly flow will continue across the Plains throughout the day. This will help keep limited moisture in place, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 30s. A dryline is likely to form, as the drier air out west mixes eastward. Current high-res guidance, has the boundary from the Palmer Divide, southeast to near Springfield by mid afternoon. Given the limited moisture, CAPE values will also be minimal, at around 500 j/kg, with the highest totals near the Kansas border. High-res model guidance is sparking isolated thunderstorms across the Plains, mainly from Kiowa, south into Baca County after 3 PM. At this time, given the limited moisture and instability, thunderstorms look to remain sub-severe, however, small hail to near half an inch and outflow wind gusts to near 45 mph may be possible. Any thunderstorms that do develop, will quickly spread east into Kansas by the evening. Afternoon highs will be warm, with 70s to lower 80s across the Plains, and upper 60s to lower 70s for the San Luis Valley. Mozley && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Saturday Night: Heading into Saturday night, relatively quiet weather is anticipated across south central and southeastern Colorado. Increasing northwesterly flow will be in place over the area ahead of an approaching trough. Given major forcing will still remain further to the west, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail through most of the evening and overnight hours. The exception to this will be late in the overnight hours into Sunday morning, as both flow and moisture increase, allowing for isolated light snow showers to develop along the Continental Divide right around sunrise. Otherwise, winds will become relatively light overnight, with pockets of mid to high level clouds streaming across the region. Temperatures during this period are expected to be mild, with near seasonal lows for much of the area. Sunday: For the end of the weekend, active weather starts to make a return to south central and southeastern Colorado. One shortwave embedded within larger troughing will swing over the region throughout the day. Given the increased forcing and support from this wave, along with an uptick in mid level moisture, snow showers are expected to bloom along the higher terrain during the day. With the increased flow over the area, a shower being pushed across the valleys will be possible, though will transition to all rain given warmer surface temperatures. Elsewhere, dry conditions are anticipated. Along with that, windy and low humidity values are expected across the area as the wave pushes over. These factors will allow for widespread critical fire weather conditions to materialize throughout the day. With that said though, green-up of grasses, shrubby, etc. is currently ongoing, and will likely limit extreme wildfire behavior. Beyond all of that, gusty winds around 35-45 mph are expected for south central and southeastern Colorado, with occasional mid to high level clouds racing across the sky. Looking at temperatures, Sunday will bring a warm and near seasonal day thanks to downsloping winds. Monday - Tuesday: For the start of the week, active weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado, though will start to decrease through Tuesday. A second shortwave will swing southward along the western and southern periphery of the larger troughing, and push over the area Monday, and exit eastward through Tuesday. While the shortwave is over the area Monday, shower chances will increase area wide given broader forcing and moisture still in place. The greatest coverage of showers will remain along the mountains, where forcing will be maximized. Then for Tuesday, as the wave ejects to the east, any showers present are expected to dissipate early in the day as forcing lessens on the backside of the wave, with dry conditions anticipated by late Tuesday. Outside of that, breezy conditions are expected, along with increased clouds Monday, though quickly clearing through Tuesday. Temperatures during this period will drop to below seasonal values for late May thanks to a cold front that drops southward during Monday. Wednesday - Thursday: For part of the midweek period, quieter weather starts to make a return to south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, modest ridging to flatter westerly flow will be in place over the area. Given the lack of major forcing with this flow pattern, dry conditions are expected to prevail. With that said though, a highly isolated shower can't be ruled out along the mountains given minor orographic forcing. Otherwise, breezy winds and occasional high level clouds are anticipated. As for temperatures, a rebound back up to warmer values is expected, with much of the area returning back to near to above seasonal values by Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1111 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through the next 24 hours. Gusty west to northwest winds near 25 to 30 kts will continue into this afternoon. Flow turns southerly at KALS this evening and weakens. A boundary will shift winds north to northeast at KCOS and KPUB this evening. Winds will then swing southeasterly at both terminals mid morning Saturday. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...MOZLEY ####018009191#### FXUS63 KOAX 162024 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 324 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widely scattered showers continue this afternoon, mainly over northeast Nebraska (20-60% chance). Showers end early this evening. - High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory remain in effect for the forecast area until 9 pm tonight. Expect northwest 30 to 40 mph winds with gusts up to 60 mph at times before subsiding late tonight. - Breezy winds linger early Saturday before subsiding by the afternoon with pleasant conditions expected. Several chances for showers and storms return Sunday night through Wednesday, potentially with heavy rain and severe weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday Night/ 1930z 500 mb RAP objective analysis shows the closed upper level low located right over Minnesota. Two vorticity lobes are noted within the flow: one associated with the main closed low over Minnesota extending southwestward toward Nebraska, and the secondary lobe across Kansas associated with a weak wave. This wave provided some forcing to generate widely scattered showers this morning over our far south with a few mPING reports of rain. This activity has largely pushed east into central Iowa this afternoon, but we are starting to see more widely scattered showers across northeast Nebraska associated with the vorticity lobe from Minnesota and the cyclonic wrap around flow. These showers will eventually dissipate as we head into the early evening hours. PoPs are currently at 20 to 60%, with the highest chances in far northeast Nebraska. The main concern today continues to be the strong environmental winds. RAP sfc analysis shows an impressive 987 mb low associated with the upper level disturbance based over west central Minnesota, with a tight pressure gradient extending southwestward into a large portion of the South Dakota, Iowa, and Nebraska area. 850 mb upper air analysis shows a strong jet associated with the closed low feature, with the strongest winds (50-55 kts) seen over northeast Nebraska and slightly lower speeds (35-45) observed over the rest of eastern Nebraska/western Iowa. BUFKIT soundings show growth of the mixed layer anywhere from 850-700 mb across northeast Nebraska, while areas farther south where some gaps in cloud cover are present show a deeper mixed layer up to 650 mb in the late afternoon hours. This will allow us to tap into the strong winds/jet aloft with anywhere from 35-45 kts of momentum transfer occurring at the surface. The tapping into this stronger sink of momentum coupled with the tight pressure gradient will result in widespread sustained northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts anywhere from 50 to 60 mph. So, have continued the midshift's High Wind Warning over northeast Nebraska and Wind Advisory for the rest of the CWA through 9 pm tonight. Localized visibility reductions due to blowing dust remain possible, as do localized power outages and tree damage. The scattered showers across the north may help drive some of the aforementioned momentum downward as well. Winds will somewhat relax late this evening into Saturday morning, but could still see some breezy northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, particularly over northeast Nebraska. Did lower highs from NBM guidance today to account for northwest winds and cloud cover hindering daytime heating. Highs today will be in the mid 50s north to mid 70s south. Lows tonight will be in the 40s. Saturday will see the sfc low over Minnesota continue eastward toward the Ontario/Great Lakes area, with sfc ridging moving in behind the low. This will result in winds slowly relaxing during the day with dry conditions expected. Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with a few clouds. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to mid 40s. .LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday/ Flow aloft at 500 mb becomes southwesterly on Sunday as the longwave trough over the Four Corners area ejects northeastward. The wave will induce cyclogenesis, with a sfc low developing over the eastern Colorado area and resultant warm front extending eastward somewhere over the Kansas/Nebraska vicinity. Forcing for ascent increases by Sunday evening as the mid level wave approaches the Central/Northern Plains. Dew points in the low to mid 60s also arrive within the warm sector aided by 1000-850 mb moisture transport from the Gulf. With CAPE anywhere from a few hundred to thousand J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear around 50-60 kts, these ingredients will support severe weather across portions of the Central/Northern Plains Sunday evening, with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting mainly south of Interstate 80 in a slight risk of severe weather, while an enhanced risk is seen just south of the border into Kansas. One of the big questions that remains is where the baroclinic zone/warm front will end up at. This will be extremely important in determining where the better moisture and instability will be. GEFS and Euro based ensembles still show considerable uncertainty in the location of the sfc low center. Regardless of where the severe threat ends up happening, we will still see some scattered showers and thunderstorms, as the NBM currently has a 70 to 90% chance of PoPs Sunday evening through early Monday morning. Sfc low will continue to track to the northeast Monday, but still seeing several discrepancies on where the sfc low and its associated baroclinic zones/fronts will set up. Again, this will have important implications on where we could see severe weather this day, but the Storm Prediction Center currently highlights portions of the forecast area in a 15% risk for severe weather. NBM currently has a 70-90% chance of scattered showers and storms areawide Monday night lingering into Tuesday. PoPs decrease on Wednesday as the system finally exits the area with dry conditions anticipated per NBM guidance on Thursday. With several chances for showers and storms to start the work week, this certainly leads to some concern regarding flooding potential. Admittedly, what leads to some uncertainty regarding flood potential is our current drought conditions. The majority of eastern Nebraska is in a moderate to severe drought, while southwest Iowa is abnormally dry to in a moderate drought. While there is still some uncertainty with these upcoming waves/disturbances regarding timing and location, do see at times deterministic PWATs up to 1.5 inches across our far south and into southwest Iowa. With warm cloud depths between 3,500 to 4,000 meters, these ingredients indicate efficient rainfall production could occur. Ensemble members of the GEFS, Euro, and Canadian show the best PWAT values (anywhere from 1.2 to 1.7 inches) arriving sometime early Monday morning through about early Tuesday morning. Again, lots of uncertainty exists at this point in the extended forecast as the evolution of the upper level features will influence how the sfc low tracks and where its baroclinic zones set up. We recommend you continue to stay tuned to the forecast for the latest updates regarding the severe and heavy rainfall potential for the Sunday through early Wednesday systems. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 KOAX radar imagery is picking up on an area of -SHRA across the KOFK area. Ceilings look to hover around borderline VFR to MVFR for the next few hours here. Have opted on VFR mentions for the time being but will continue to monitor and make amendments as needed if conditions change. Very light scattered showers could potentially impact KOMA and KLNK, but these chances are at 30% or less so have opted to leave out of the TAF for now. Lingering showers should exit early this evening, leaving SCT to BKN ceilings but remaining in low end VFR. Could see some brief MVFR reductions at terminals during the early morning hours, but confidence is high enough for mentions only at KOFK at this time. The main concerns for this period continue to be the wind. Sustained west northwest winds of 20-30 kts with gusts up to 50 kts are possible, particularly at KOFK, while KOMA and KLNK could see anywhere from 30-45 kt gusts. Winds should ease overnight but lingering breezy conditions are possible Saturday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ045-050>053- 065>068-078-088>093. High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>044. IA...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-056- 069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...Castillo AVIATION...Castillo