####018005859#### FXUS65 KFGZ 162050 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 150 PM MST Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler weather returns this weekend with strong southwest winds. Slight chances for precipitation on late Saturday through Monday. Warmer and drier conditions will return for Tuesday through the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Saturday through Sunday...A trough will drop down through the Great Basin, bringing some cooler air and stronger winds to the region. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than they were the past couple of days but will still feel mild. The colder air will arrive on Sunday, with highs 10-15 degrees below average. Did you miss the winds? We didn't think so but here they come anyway. The pressure gradient starts to tighten up across our western areas on Saturday morning, with increasing southwest winds through the day. Winds will be around 15-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph. Additionally, moisture is lagging behind the trough and we will remain dry with RH values in the single digits to teens. The fuels across the northern and western parts of the state are in slightly better shape than eastern areas. Model guidance has slowed down slightly over the past couple of runs and it looks like any showers will arrive late Saturday into Sunday into our northwestern areas. With a slightly weaker and less deep trough, the moisture will not extend quite as far south as we had anticipated (and hoped for) resulting in the best precipitation chances remaining north of I-40 and mainly closer to the AZ/UT border. The colder air pushing in early Sunday may allow for some snow showers or a mix of rain and snow showers across the Kaibab Plateau. Instability looks pretty marginal so only isolated thunder is expected on Sunday. Taking into account all of this information, we have issued a Wind Advisory for portions of Coconino and Yavapai counties as well as a Red Flag Warning for the Little Colorado River Valley and the White Mountains. Sunday night through Monday...The first trough exits the region on Sunday as the secondary trough starts to push down from the north. This second trough will push into the area Sunday night and exit by Monday evening. This system also appears to be weaker than it has the past couple of model runs and the moisture is looking to be lacking more than it did previously. Best chances for showers will be along and north of the Mogollon Rim, with a few snow showers possible above 7000 feet. Again, instability is marginal but some isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through Monday afternoon. While some areas will benefit from the increase in moisture, not all areas will be so lucky. Portions of the Little Colorado River Valley will remain pretty dry. The winds will remain gusty on Sunday staying our of the southwest around 15-25 mph with gusts 35-45 mph. Winds will drop off on Monday but will remain gusty across eastern portions of the Little Colorado River Valley. With the continued strong winds and dry conditions, we will again see near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. With a little bit more uncertainty to just how much the RH will increase on Sunday, we have have left the Fire Weather Watch in place. Tuesday and beyond...As the second trough exits the region late Monday, we should see a rather quick recovery across the state. Temperatures will warm to near average by midweek and then 5-15 degrees above average for the second half of the week. Winds are expected to become lighter through the week with typical afternoon breezes. && .AVIATION...Friday 16/18Z through Saturday 17/18Z...VFR conditions, though smoke could reduce visibility locally near and downwind of Greer (in eastern Arizona) and Blind fire (SE of KLFG). Winds becoming SW 5-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts through 02Z then becoming light and variable. Southwest winds begin to increase after 16Z. OUTLOOK...Saturday 17/18Z through Monday 19/18Z...VFR conditions prevailing, though smoke could reduce visibility near and downwind of wildfires. Isolated to scattered -SHRA and a slight chance of -TSRA after 06Z Sunday mainly north of I-40. Winds Saturday and Sunday afternoons SW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-35 kts. Patchy blowing dust in northeast Arizona. Northwest winds 10-20kts developing after 16Z Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Sunday...Dry conditions will continue through Saturday with minimum RH values mostly below 15%. Southwest to west afternoon winds 10 to 20 mph today. Southwest winds increase Saturday to 15-25 mph gusting 30-40 mph. A Red Flag Warning is in effect on Saturday for the Little Colorado River Valley and White Mountains. Winds are expected to be stronger on Sunday with increasing humidity and chances for showers moving from west to east. The LCR in Apache County may still see very low RH and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect there for Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Windy, cooler, and better chances for showers on Monday. West-northwest 10-20 mph on Monday. Much warmer, less wind, and drier on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 11 PM MST /midnight MDT/ Saturday for AZZ004-006>008-015. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM MDT/ Saturday for AZZ112>114-117-140. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for AZZ114. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff ####018006662#### FXUS64 KBMX 162052 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 352 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 328 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 - There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather late tonight after midnight into Saturday morning across the northern portions of Central Alabama and then a marginal risk late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening across the southern half of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 A 591dam ridge is centered over the Gulf this afternoon with deep southwesterly flow across Central Alabama bringing warm air into the region. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s today. An upper-level trough will gradually move east from the Upper Plains across the Great Lakes region today through tomorrow with the trough axis extending south into the Mid-South region, but with the pattern notably less amplified over the Southeast due to the opposing interaction between the trough and the subtropical ridge. A nearly east to west oriented front will move south into the area early tomorrow morning supporting convective activity from the Mississippi River into the Tennessee Valley. Models depict rather disorganized convection in somewhat of a broken line or through a few separate rounds which will move into northern portions of the forecast area around midnight tonight, weakening with southern extent through the early morning hours due to the lack of upper- level support. Despite lessening synoptic support, the preceding airmass will be warm and unstable with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates of ~6.5- 7 C/km, and MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg. Stronger winds aloft will also support bulk shear values of 60-70 kts, so these conditions will be more than enough to support a risk of strong to severe storms. Damaging winds will be the primary concern, especially as the activity becomes increasingly outflow driven, chasing the unstable air. But the steep lapse rates could also support instances of large hail up to quarter size as well. It certainly looks like thunderstorm intensity and coverage will wane quickly by mid-morning as the activity moves south of Birmingham. There should be a break in the activity by late morning through early afternoon as the remnant front and any leftover outflow boundaries begin to stall across the southern portions of the area. 12Z CAMs still are not indicating much thunderstorm redevelopment Saturday afternoon, but given the continued warm, unstable airmass and weak surface lift, will continue to message the Marginal severe risk during the afternoon with isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage expected. Models show best chances for redevelopment will be across our southern half, but it ultimately depends on how the morning convection evolves and where there are any lingering boundaries to help initiate convection. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 328 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 The biggest changes for this forecast package is for the Sat night period. Went above NBM for the evening as Euro influence is looking to deteriorate convection too soon after sunset Sat evening. As we are getting more into hires territory, will keep some pops in the SRN half through 6z with 2nd wave Sat evening along the sagging boundary. A 3rd wave is possible after midnight into Sun for more storm activity with the highest chances here across the N. After that boundary gets pushed NWD with a break in the action over C AL as most of convection should go N of us. Then Tue afternoon into Wed convection returns again ahead of another frontal system. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 A series of shortwaves will move across the region Sunday into Monday, with additional chances for rain or thunderstorms across Central Alabama. The best rain chances will be confined to the northern half of the area, with the highest rain and storm chances coming Sunday afternoon. A trough over the Plains will move eastward into Tuesday, with a surface low moving up the Ohio Valley dragging a cold front through Central Alabama Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will return during this period as a result. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across most places, which will be some of the warmest days so far this year. Wednesday and Thursday are currently projected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s behind the front. 12 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 A cold front is moving closer to the region and supporting an increase in cloud cover. VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon until convection associated with the cold front arrives late tonight. Coverage of storms is questionable, but went ahead and mentioned TSRA for our northern terminals due to the risk for some strong storms. Expect at least 1-2 hours of flight impacts at any points from generally 09-12Z due to the passing thunderstorms. Then IFR/MVFR ceilings will persist through much of the morning hours as the cold front moves across the area. Expect prevailing surface winds to remain from the southwest during this TAF period. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... The dry trend continues this afternoon. Minimum RH values will be the 40s south to 50s north, with 20ft winds up to 9 to 12 mph. Rain enters the area tonight across the north with rain chances continuing off and on through the weekend. Min RH values should remain above 45 percent in most areas Saturday and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 87 64 85 / 70 20 50 70 Anniston 69 87 66 85 / 50 30 40 60 Birmingham 69 87 68 85 / 60 30 40 60 Tuscaloosa 71 88 69 88 / 50 40 50 50 Calera 71 87 69 87 / 40 30 50 50 Auburn 70 87 69 87 / 10 30 30 40 Montgomery 71 90 69 91 / 10 30 30 30 Troy 70 90 69 91 / 10 30 30 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....08/12 AVIATION...86/Martin