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FXAK69 PAFG 162227

AFDAFG



Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Fairbanks AK

227 PM AKDT Fri May 16 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A bit more active weather will be moving into the West Coast this

weekend as a low provides showers to the West Coast and Western 

Interior. In the Interior, an upper low is bringing very light

rain showers to the Yukon/Tanana Uplands and Upper Tanana Valley

through tomorrow. The North Slope will be seeing a diurnal trend 

of fog overnight and clearing during the day today and tomorrow, 

then onshore flow returns tomorrow afternoon with stratus, fog and

breezy conditions returning.



&&



.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Dry in the Central Interior with sunny skies through tomorrow. 



- Isolated showers in the Eastern Interior through tomorrow with

  an isolated thunderstorm in the higher terrain possible Sunday.



- More substantial thunderstorm risks each afternoon next week. 



- Temperatures above average through the weekend, then a slight

  cool down into the 50s to near 60 on Monday/Tuesday with a 

  warming trend afterwards. 



West Coast and Western Interior...

- Low pressure brings showers to the West Coast and Western

  Interior this afternoon through the weekend. 



- 0.10-0.25 inches of rain expected. Some snow may mix in from the

  Western Brooks Range to Seward Peninsula Mtns Saturday night 

  into Sunday.



- Cooling trend this weekend, then warming next weekend to

  near/above average once again. 



North Slope and Brooks Range..

- Diurnal fog will burn off this afternoon, then re-develop 

  tonight with weak offshore flow. 



- Onshore flow returns tomorrow afternoon/evening with breezy

  northerly winds, stratus and fog through Sunday.



- Low impact weather with seasonable temps and showers over the

  Brooks Range for the next several days.



&&



.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

Weak dynamics overall with a broad area of low pressure around

1005 mb stationed from Bristol Bay to the Gulf. Weak high pressure

is over the Western and Central Interior keeping it clear and dry

with a weak area of low pressure in the Eastern Interior providing

light rain showers. A 1024 mb high over the Anzhu Islands is

moving east through the Chukchi Sea and will bring onshore flow to

the North Slope tomorrow afternoon/evening. A high south of the 

Canadian Archipelago extends west to the Beaufort Sea. This all

basically means the weather is quiet with no significant impacts. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

This afternoon is dry again for most of the Interior of AK with 

the lone exception being some light showers over the AK Range and 

the Yukon-Tanana Uplands. Northeast winds turn more northerly 

today and are 10 to 15 mph at most, with min RH back into the low 

20 percent range with only a couple of spots reaching 18-19% from 

Fairbanks to Eielson. An upper trough will shift into the W Coast 

and W Interior bringing light wetting rains tomorrow and Sunday, 

and increasing chances for showers for the Central Interior Sunday

afternoon. It will be cool and damp out west this weekend as the 

cool front shifts inland after today. A wet thunderstorm is 

possible over the Interior terrain Sunday afternoon. Greater 

chances for storms arise on Monday and continues each afternoon 

next week. 



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

The Yukon River continues to hold sections of thermally degraded 

in-place ice between Beaver and Tanana. These limited sections are

slowly breaking up and will continue to create ice runs they are 

pushed out. Remaining ice should clear out by this weekend.



For the Buckland River:

 - The Buckland River is slowly breaking up, with some open water

   in front of town. Directly upstream from town there is a mix of

   intact ice and open water; towards the headwaters open water

   conditions dominate. Ice remains mostly intact downriver from

   Buckland, including at known jam points.



 -A local observer reports that water has continued to rise and is

  now just a few feet below bank full. Ongoing snowmelt in the

  basin brings the potential for flooding as early as Friday if

  the intact ice below Buckland is strong enough to resist the

  push of water and ice.



&&



.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...

High confidence that troughing will be over the West Coast and

Western Interior with weak ridging over the Central and Eastern

Interior. This pattern looks to persist through much of the

week bringing more showery weather to the Interior with slight 

chances for thunderstorms each afternoon through the work week.

We'll be monitoring a low in the Bering Sea late next week. There

is low confidence in where it goes, but trends have been to 

develop it in the Western Bering Sea and push it over the 

Aleutians, then into the Gulf. It doesn't look too impactful right

now besides the potential for light rain along the Coast. 

Temperatures look to remain seasonable to slightly above average 

for much of Northern Alaska. 



Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None



&&



.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...Flood Watch for AKZ818.

PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.

&&



$$



Bianco