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FXUS62 KMFL 162243 AAA

AFDMFL



Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Miami FL

643 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025



...New AVIATION...



.SHORT TERM...

(Rest of today through Saturday)

Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025



It may be the start of the climatological wet season in South FL, 

but it's not going to look that way heading into this weekend. Upper 

level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate resulting in 

warm and dry conditions persisting. Temperatures will be several 

degrees above normal with highs ranging from the upper 80s near the 

coasts to middle 90s over interior SW FL. Dewpoints in the upper 60s 

to lower 70s will result in max heat indices in the mid to upper 90s 

across the east coast metro, and around 100 over the interior. 

Little relief is expected overnight with lows ranging from the upper 

60s over the interior, to middle 70s closer to the coasts. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday night through next Thursday)

Issued at 233 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025



Stout deep-layer ridging and anhydrous weather will prevail across 

South Florida through the weekend and into much of the upcoming work 

week. The atmospheric column will remain quite dry during this 

period as dry air rotates anticyclonically around the surface ridge 

axis situated across the western Atlantic waters. NASA's/GMAO Dust 

Aerosol Optical Thickness model even hints at the periphery of a 

saharan dust plume arriving across South Florida during the early to 

middle portion of next week. However, the main implication of stout 

ridging directly overhead will be very light mid to upper level flow 

aloft. The lack of synoptic forcing will default prevailing weather 

to mesoscale processes such as the diurnal sea-breeze circulations 

each afternoon. Given the lack of cloud cover and subsidence aloft, 

temperatures will be on the toasty side with values several degrees 

above average across the area. Across inland locales, afternoon 

temperatures will peak into the mid to upper 90s each with 

temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal locations. 

The foci of hottest afternoon temperatures may pivot during the work 

week, switching from southwest florida to southeastern florida as 

surface flow veers ahead of a weak boundary during the mid to late 

week period. There won't be much respite overnight as temperatures 

along the coast will still remain on the warmer side with lows in 

the middle to upper 70s along the east coast of South Florida.



With a lack of cloud cover and surface humidity, apparent 

temperatures (feels-like temperatures) will reach 100-105 degrees 

each afternoon. While just below lower bounds of heat advisory 

thresholds, prolonged exposure outdoors could impact vulnerable 

individuals. Sheltered areas exposed to these temperatures without 

climate control (parked cars) could become deadly for children and 

pets. Always look before you lock! 



By mid week, a mid-level trough propagating across the Ohio River 

Valley and Great Lakes region will drag an attendant surface low and 

boundary eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United 

States. This boundary is then forecast to arrive across our region, 

bringing a deeper pool of low-level boundary moisture. This extra 

moisture could provide enough instability to spark up higher rain 

chances during this period. However, as discussed in the previous 

area forecast discussion, uncertainty remains regarding the 

evolution of this boundary as well as if any upper level synoptic 

support (current models show the base of the "parent" mid-level 

trough remaining well to the north) will be in tandem with this 

feature. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 642 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025



Winds will be light and variable tonight along with dry and VFR

conditions. 



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1201 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025



Benign marine conditions persist through the upcoming weekend, with 

light winds and seas 2 ft or less.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Miami            76  91  76  90 /   0   0   0  10 

West Kendall     73  93  74  92 /   0   0   0  10 

Opa-Locka        75  94  76  92 /   0  10   0  10 

Homestead        75  90  75  90 /   0   0   0   0 

Fort Lauderdale  75  89  76  88 /   0  10   0  10 

N Ft Lauderdale  75  90  76  90 /   0  10   0  10 

Pembroke Pines   77  95  78  95 /   0  10   0  10 

West Palm Beach  74  92  74  91 /   0  10   0  10 

Boca Raton       74  92  75  92 /   0  10   0  10 

Naples           74  89  74  90 /   0   0   0  10 



&&



.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

AM...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...CMF

LONG TERM....Hadi

AVIATION...BNB