####018006301####
FXUS65 KRIW 221124
AFDRIW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
524 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated to critical fire weather continues today across
central and southern Wyoming.
- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday,
with a few stronger storms possible in northern Wyoming.
- After a lull in Fire Weather concerns Wednesday and Thursday,
critical fire weather is possible again Friday into the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025
We continue to have a few showers out there at this late or early
hour, depending on your sleep habits. There are even a couple of
stray lightning strikes in Lincoln County. Most of these showers
should be over shortly after sunrise. We have the same concerns
today as yesterday across most of the area, fire and
thunderstorms (but this is usually the case this time of year).
We will start with fire concerns. It will be another day of elevated
to critical fire weather across central and southern Wyoming today
with breezy conditions developing and humidity remaining low. I do
have some concerns that wind may be a bit lighter today, but we will
leave the highlights as is for now. The other concern,
thunderstorms, may be a bit more concerning. A weak back door cold
front will be dropping southward, bring a focusing mechanism and
some additional lift. There will also be some speed and directional
shear and a bit of right rear jet energy to enhance the storms.
However, the best of these factors should remain over Montana. We do
have a marginal risk for severe weather though roughly north of a
Buffalo to Powell line. Dew points are higher in this area and with
the tilted updrafts we could see a higher possibility for hail today
than yesterday along with the strong wind gusts that seemingly
accompany any shower or thunderstorm in the Cowboy State. The best
chance will generally be across the northern half of the state. Most
should end around sunset, but a few could linger much of the night
across Johnson County. As for changes, a bit higher than yesterday
with around a 2 in 5 chance in the mountains and Johnson County,
generally 1 in 4 to 1 in 5 in the other lower elevation locations.
There will be some small changes on Wednesday. For one, the front
will settle along the Continental Divide, bringing somewhat cooler
and more moist air. This should end the critical fire weather East
of the Divide for at least this day. Humidity will remain low in
southern Wyoming though. The factor here though is will the wind be
strong enough and at this point, the answer looks to be no. With the
increased moisture and the front hanging around, the chance of
thunderstorms will increase somewhat, again mainly along and north
of the Continental Divide. Precipitable water values are also a
little higher East of the Divide, anywhere from 0.70 to 1.1 inches,
which is anywhere from 110 to 150 percent of normal. So, some storms
could have more rain. As for stronger storms, the best chance
remains East of the Bighorn Range, where low level upslope flow and
higher instability will enhance this chance.
The rest of the forecast will feature a trend toward warmer and
drier conditions as ridging builds over the southern Plains states
and builds back into Wyoming. There will still be enough moisture on
Thursday for some showers and thunderstorms, again mainly East of
the Divide. Then starting on Friday and continuing into the
weekend, much drier air may spread into Wyoming. Precipitable
water values may fall to only 50 percent of normal across much
of western and central Wyoming. As a result, any convection for
this period would be limited to in and near the mountains with
less than a 1 in 5 chance on any given day. With above normal
temperatures and low humidity, critical fire weather will become
a concern again. Wind will be the limiting factor with any
possible fire weather highlights. There are no slam dunk days,
but some could get close. It just difficult to pinpoint one day
this far out.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. A few
showers are moving across the area this morning, though little
impact is expected with this activity which should mostly end by
15Z. Another round of isolated convection is expected this
afternoon, again most focused on northern Wyoming. Confidence has
increased enough to include a TEMPO group for this at KCOD. KJAC and
KWRL have the next best chance to see impacts this afternoon, though
confidence is lower and will keep the PROB30 groups there for now.
Otherwise, it will be another breezy day, with most terminals seeing
a southwest wind gusting 20 to 25 knots through the late morning and
afternoon hours. Convection and wind will wane with sunset. However,
a northerly wind shift at KCPR due to a front drifting south may
lead to lower ceilings late in the period, perhaps briefly
approaching MVFR conditions. Have added a broken VFR deck for now to
account for this potential.
Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025
A combination of breezy conditions and relative humidity falling
under 15 percent will bring another day of elevated to critical
fire weather to much of central and southern Wyoming this
afternoon. Increased humidity in northern Wyoming should ease
fire weather concerns somewhat but lightning is possible here.
Fire weather should improve somewhat Wednesday, especially East
of the Continental Divide as somewhat cooler temperatures and
higher humidity arrive behind a cold front.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277>280-
283-288-289.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hattings
AVIATION...Myers
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings
####018005187####
FXUS66 KMTR 221125
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
425 AM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025
...New AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 AM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025
- Cooler than normal this week
- Minor high tide flooding expected through Thursday
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1234 AM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025
(Today and tonight)
Cool and humid conditions prevail as the strong onshore winds
ease. A decaying cold front is pushing through the Bay Area with
some clearing behind the boundary in the North Bay. Otherwise this
system won't bring much impact to the surface as the thermal
gradient mixes out across the decaying front. The 850 mb
temperature dropped from 18.55C to 17.15C from 12Z to 00Z, and
will continue to fall over the next 24 hours as the colder air
mass settles in. An associated trough has caused the marine layer
to deepen to around 3,000 feet, which will bring cool, humid air
to all but the highest terrain across the Bay Area. High
temperatures today will only reach the 70s inland with low 60s
along the coast. SW winds are still gusting above 40 mph across
gaps and passes in the interior East Bay. This should ease as the
SFO-SAC gradient has decreased to +2.5 mb and will continue to
fall through the morning.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1234 AM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)
All indications are that the 500 mb trough offshore will spawn a
cut-off low by Wednesday. This will keep the marine layer deep and
temperatures cool. This pattern will also bring a weaker gradient,
and synoptically forced onshore winds should ease mid-week. The
typical gusty locations will still blow in the afternoon, but only
for a few hours as the diurnal California gradient builds. By the
weekend, a deeper trough offshore will pick up the cut-off low.
This opens the door for a pattern change as high pressure builds
over the desert Southwest. Troughing still looks likely over
northern California, but not nearly as robust as in the medium
term. Most likely this means temperatures will start to climb
back toward normal by the end of the month, and the ECMWF AIFS
ensemble mean shows temperature anomalies flipping from negative to
positive around August 3rd.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 422 AM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals. A surface trough
and its associated high clouds is adding some complexity to the
forecast with STS yet to deteriorate to sub-VFR, although low
stratus clouds are quickly encroaching (within 5 miles of) the
terminal. That being said, confidence is only moderate on all
terminals (with the exception of HAF) improving to VFR by this
afternoon.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently IFR with westerly flow. Westerly flow
will prevail through the TAF period. While it is likely that
ceilings will improve to VFR, there remains a low probability (10%
chance) that sub-VFR ceilings linger through the TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Low stratus clouds will likely linger to some
extent within the San Francisco Bay.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently IFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and IFR with northwesterly flow at SNS. High confidence in
ceilings improving to VFR by this afternoon; however, there remains
a low probability (10%) that sub-VFR ceilings linger through the TAF
period, especially at MRY. Westerly winds will prevail through the
TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 422 AM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025
A gentle to moderate northwesterly breeze and slight to moderate
seas will prevail. Low clouds with the possibility of drizzle will
persist.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1221 AM PDT Mon Jul 21 2025
New night, new climate fact to demonstrate how cool this Summer
has been. The table below shows how often select cities typically
hit certain maximum temperature thresholds from June-July,
compared with how many times that benchmark has been reached so
far this Summer. If these numbers hold through the rest of the
month, the final column shows the most recent year with equal or
fewer occurrences.
City Threshold Avg 2025 Fewest Since
Santa Rosa AP 85 24 9 1998*
San Rafael 85 14 11 2022
Redwood City 80 31 7 2008
San Francisco 70 11 2 1965
Half Moon Bay 65 23 1 2023
Oakland 75 15 4 1970*
Livermore 95 12 3 2004
San Jose 85 13 4 2004
Salinas 75 11 0 1998*
Pinnacles 100 13 3 1999
*Fewest since records began in stated year
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM PDT
Wednesday for CAZ006-506-508.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Flynn
LONG TERM....Flynn
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment
Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco
Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea
####018004305####
FXUS64 KCRP 221126
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
626 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
- Generally moderate heat risk across South Texas through next week.
A few locations across the Brush Country will have a major risk with
max heat indices around 110 at times.
- Borderline elevated fire weather conditions next week for Webb
County Tuesday through Thursday.
- Low (10-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms returns the end
of the work week.
- Marginal (at least 5%) Risk of Excessive Rainfall Friday across
the northern Coastal Bend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
A broad mid level high pressure system will continue to move west
toward the TX coast with the ridge axis expected to be along the TX
coast Tuesday. This will keep rain chances out of the forecast
through Thursday as it moves across the region. It will also
maintain the hot and humid conditions across S TX. Max heat indices
may briefly reach 110 across the Brush Country at times, but most
areas will range between 100-109 through the week. The hot and humid
conditions will lead to a generally moderate risk of heat related
impacts across most of S TX, but a few locations across the Brush
Country may have a major risk of heat related impacts at times.
Elevated minimum relative humidity values will continue through the
period with a few locations across the Rio Grande Plains briefly
dropping to 25-30% each afternoon. Winds gusting to 20-25 mph
coincident with the lower RH values may briefly increase the risk of
elevated fire weather conditions over portions of Webb County
Tuesday through Thursday. Otherwise, fire weather conditions are not
anticipated across the remainder of South Texas at this time.
Models continue to forecast a surge of deeper moisture moving into
the area by the end of the work week as a mid/upper level trough
approaches the TX coast. Some models indicate PWATs increasing to
2.0-2.3 inches. The deeper moisture combined with the trough, sea
breeze and unstable airmass will lead to an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms next Friday and into the weekend across
the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. If PWATs do increase to
2.0+ inches, then heavy rainfall can be expected with the stronger
storms. The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall along the coast from Port Aransas northeastward
into the Houston area on Friday.
At this time, the rain chances remain low (10-30%) due to
uncertainty in the amount of moisture, how strong a capping
inversion will be, and track/timing of the mid level trough.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
MVFR CIGS have been very brief this morning at ALI, but starting
to see a minor VIS reduction. Another hour or two of the potential
for MVFR at ALI or VCT, then VFR conditions through the day.
Additional brief MVFR CIGS will be possible tonight for the same
sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
A generally moderate (BF 4) south to southeast wind with gusts to
fresh (BF 5) levels will persist over the waters today. Occasionally
higher gusts this afternoon to around 25 knots from Port Aransas
southward to Baffin Bay can be expected. Winds are expected to
decrease to gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) by mid week. The chance of
showers or thunderstorms returns by the end of the work week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 93 77 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
Victoria 96 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
Laredo 104 77 105 76 / 0 0 0 0
Alice 98 75 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
Rockport 91 81 91 80 / 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 103 76 103 76 / 0 10 0 0
Kingsville 95 75 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 89 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...TE/81
AVIATION...PH/83
####018004183####
FXUS64 KMOB 221126
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
626 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025
Mid to upper ridging gradually undergoes anticyclonic wave
breaking over the region as an inverted upper trough shifts
westward across the northern gulf by mid to late week. Hot
afternoon temperatures remain expected for today and Wednesday
with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 90's, hottest today.
Overnight lows stay very warm in the middle to upper 70's for most
locations. The combination of lower to middle 70's dew points and
the afternoon heat will allow for heat indices to warm into the
100 to 110 range, warmest nearer the coast. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect for all of the forecast area today, with another
one likely needed for Wednesday. A caveat to Wednesday could be
the anticipated increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage
during the afternoon which could limit how hot we can get across
the area and likewise how high our heat indices can make it. Best
chances for highest heat indices will be nearer the coast and west
of the I-65 corridor.
With the aforementioned inverted trough entering the picture along
with weak surface troughing or low pressure skirting the coast,
rain and thunderstorm chances increase substantially as we head
into the Wednesday through Friday timeframe with scattered to
numerous coverage of showers and storms expected each day. As the
trough moves out of the area, we return back to a more typical
Summer time pattern for the weekend with scattered to locally
numerous afternoon showers and storms, greatest coverage nearer
the coast in association with the afternoon sea breeze boundary.
Additionally, with increasing onshore flow the rip current risk
will steadily rise late week. The rip current risk for area
beaches will remain Low through Wednesday. As we head into
Thursday the rip current risk increases to a Moderate and by
Friday a High risk. While the current forecast calls for the rip
current risk to drop to a Moderate by Saturday, if onshore flow
remains strong enough the high risk could linger into the weekend.
MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
VFR conditions will prevail with a light southeasterly winds
developing this afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across the northwestern Florida Panhandle. Storms
should subside by the evening with prevailing VFR conditions. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025
Light to occasionally moderate westerly winds continue through
Wednesday. Winds shift Wednesday night to a light to moderate
easterly to southeasterly flow. Flow becomes light to moderate
southerly Thursday night into Friday, gradually relaxing and
becoming westerly late this weekend. No impacts are expected
outside of higher winds and seas in or around any thunderstorms.
MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 98 77 97 76 89 76 89 76 / 30 10 70 40 90 30 80 20
Pensacola 97 81 95 79 89 79 89 80 / 30 30 80 50 90 40 70 20
Destin 94 81 92 80 90 81 91 81 / 40 30 80 60 80 40 60 10
Evergreen 97 76 96 75 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 70 40 80 20 70 10
Waynesboro 98 76 97 75 92 74 90 74 / 10 10 40 30 70 20 70 10
Camden 97 77 96 75 90 74 90 74 / 20 20 50 20 70 20 70 10
Crestview 98 77 96 76 89 76 91 76 / 40 20 80 50 90 20 70 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for FLZ201>206.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
####018003845####
FXUS63 KUNR 221126
AFDUNR
Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
526 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms later this
afternoon into the overnight hours over northern half of the
CWA; marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over the southern half
- Heat indices 100-104 degrees over south-central SD this
afternoon
- Daily chances for thunderstorms continue into the weekend with
some strong to severe storms possible
&&
.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025
08z surface analysis had low over northeastern WY with stationary
front east into southern MN. 30-40kt low level jet impinging on
surface boundary (2-4KJ/kg MUCAPE available) with clusters of
occasionally strong TSRA moving across the northeastern quarter of
the CWA, although there are other weak returns over much of the
area. Water vapour loop had upper ridge centered over LA, upper
trough over the northwest CONUS, and disturbance-laden southwest
flow aloft over the CWA. Convection/heat indices the main concern
today.
Today/tonight, surface low moves east dragging a cool front into
the CWA, bisecting the forecast area by afternoon. Drier air
pushes into the southwest quarter of the CWA, but significant
buoyancy (SPC HREF mean 1-3KJ/kg MUCAPE) lingers behind the front
over northwest SD and ahead of it in south-central SD. Best shear
(30-40kts) post-frontal with notably weaker values (<30kts) ahead
of the front. SBCIN non-trivial this afternoon. Guidance
uncertain with timing of any shortwave moving through during peak
heating. Plenty of ingredients for a quality severe weather
event, but low confidence in how it evolves with uncertainty
especially in regard to supercell potential initially and then
potential upscale grown of MCS tonight moving through the SPC Day
1 slight risk area. 00z 4km NAM nest wasn't terribly excited about
much, but 06z changes tune and is closer to SPC HREF output.
Bottom line, could be an active evening/overnight over parts of
the CWA. Oppressive dew points in the lower 70s combined with MaxT
in the 90s over south-central SD will lead to heat indices in the
lower 100s (HREF 60-90% chance). Behind the front, MaxT forecast
very uncertain.
Wednesday, several weak disturbances will ride over the surface
cool front south of CWA leading to rounds of shra/TS. Convective
parameters pick up in the west during the afternoon/evening with a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms given buoyancy/shear
combination.
Thursday through early next week, sprawling upper ridge over the
southern CONUS eventually amplifies into the northern plains leading
to generally drier weather and resumption of hot temperatures. Ridge
doesn't look to be strong enough to prevent daily chance for TSRA,
but coverage should be on the lower side.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 523 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Scattered shra/TS with local IFR conditions over western SD will
move east of the area this morning. Local IFR conditions behind
the precipitation due to patchy stratus will become VFR this
morning. Isolated/scattered TSRA will redevelop after 21z this
afternoon, lasting into tonight, becoming more numerous. Local
IFR conditions will occur with the stronger storms which will
contain gusty, erratic winds and may contain hail.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
for SDZ046-047-049.
WY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Helgeson
####018007609####
FXUS62 KMHX 221126
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
726 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge in from the north mid-week bringing
more comfortable weather to the area. Heat and humidity look
to return to ENC late this week into this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today with highest
chances south of highway 70.
- High pressure ridging in from the north will bring more
comfortable temperatures today.
Broad cyclonic flow across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
gradually lifts away from the area today as and upper low slides
into the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile, the backdoor front has
pushed just south of the FA and will continue to move to the
south today with sfc high pressure ridging in from the north
today.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue across the region
this morning under west-northwest flow aloft and abundant
moisture with PW values in excess of 2.25". However, drier air
will begin to build into the area throughout the day, especially
across the northern tier were PW values are progged to drop to
near 1.25" by late in the day while southern sections remain
above 2". As such the highest precip chances will be across
southern sections this afternoon with some sea breeze influence
near the Crystal Coast, though it will be tough to overcome the
NE flow. Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall which
could lead to localized flooding concerns, especially in
Carteret Co where some locations received 3 to 4+ inches
yesterday afternoon. Temps will be more comfortable to day
with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dew point temps dropping
into the upper 60s north to mid 70s south this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Storms will diminish quickly this evening
with loss of sfc heating and drier air continuing to build south
into the area with high pressure continuing to build into the
region. However, the center of the high will move off the Mid-
Atlantic coast leading to low level flow becoming more easterly
across ENC after midnight and some guidance is showing a few
showers pushing onshore with a weak inverted trough approaching
the coast. It will be quite comfortable with dewpoints dropping
to around 70 inland to mid 70s coast and similar low temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2 AM Tuesday...
Key Messages...
- A stretch of cooler and drier weather is expected this week
with only scattered to isolated rain chances.
- Hot weather returns late this week with heat indices
expected to again climb above 105.
Wednesday: Cold front currently making its way southward across ENC
as of Tuesday morning will linger offshore over the next couple of
days with drier air filtering in behind. Temps and heat indices will
remain a bit cooler on Wednesday, with max temps forecast in the
upper 80s (heat indices in the low-to-mid 90s). Latest high-res
guidance shows the potential for a few isolated
showers/thunderstorms to make their way onshore from the stalled
front as well as along the sea breeze, thus will continue to carry
slight chance to chance PoPs for the day on Wednesday along the
southern and eastern coast.
Thursday-Friday: The slightly cooler weather brought by this rare
July cold front will be short-lived. Winds gradually veer to
southerly and then southwesterly Thursday into Thursday night as the
front breaks down offshore. Heights begin to build again and
temps/dewpoints will start to creep upward once more. Highs Thursday
will approach 90 before jumping into the low-to-mid 90s on Friday.
Increasing dewpoints coupled with rising temps will yield heat
indices of 95-100 on Thursday and 100-105 on Friday. Precip chances
look to be largely confined to the sea breeze, although some
guidance does indicate the potential for some showers to work their
way along the coast Thursday morning as the front breaks down and
retreats towards the coast.
Saturday/Sunday: This next heatwave looks to reach its peak this
weekend as heat and humidity continue to build. Highs in the mid-90s
with dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s will yield heat indices of
105-110 both Saturday and Sunday (heat indices of 100-105 along the
immediate coast and Outer Banks). The NWS HeatRisk index currently
depicts Major heat-related impacts for both days this coming
weekend. Some guidance does indicate the potential for increased
coverage of afternoon thunderstorms Sunday/Monday, which could
temper the overall heat risk and help keep temps a bit cooler should
this verify.
Monday/Tuesday: Temps look to cool slightly into early next week as
high temps drop to the low 90s with heat indices of 100-105.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Patchy IFR stratus dissipates by mid morning
- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms through this afternoon
Stratus has become a bit more patchy in nature affecting mainly
SW rtes but also seeing lingering at PGV. Expect stratus to lift
over the next couple of hours with pred VFR by mid morning.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
throughout the day, mainly south of highway 70 as a drier
airmass builds into northern rtes throughout the day. Pred VFR
expected tonight but could see MVFR stratus pushing onshore late
tonight with about a 20-40% chance of reaching EWN and OAJ.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 2 AM Tuesday...A stretch of drier weather is expected
which should lead to predominately VFR conditions through the
week. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will remain
possible along the sea breeze each afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 2 AM Tuesday...
Cold front currently sinking south of ENC will continue to
bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms early before
chances decrease from north to south through the day today.
Winds behind this front will become northeasterly at 15-20 knots
with occasional gusts to 25 knots possible through the
overnight hours. Cold front will remain stalled offshore to the
south of ENC on Wednesday, with northeast winds decreasing
slightly to 10-15 knots (gusts to 20 knots). Winds subside
further to around 10 knots Wednesday night before veering from
easterly to southerly at around 10 knots through the day on
Thursday. Winds then become southwesterly 10-15 knots on Friday
and Saturday.
2-3 foot seas will build to 3-5 feet throughout the day today as
winds pick up behind the southward moving cold front. May need
Small Craft Advisories for some of the coastal waters for
Wednesday/Wednesday night as guidance shows some 6 footers
building into the central waters around Cape Hatteras Wednesday
morning and lingering into Wednesday night. Waves then diminish
to 2-4 feet Thursday before subsiding further to 2-3 feet
Friday/Saturday.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...SK/ZC
MARINE...SK/ZC
####018005862####
FXUS63 KLBF 221126
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
626 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot temperatures return today with a heat advisory in effect
through early this evening across north central Nebraska as heat
indices rise into the low 100s.
- A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms is expected across
much of north central Nebraska today for much of the forecast area.
- A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms is expected for
areas generally east of US-83 on Wednesday.
- Confidence continues to increase in the potential for heavy
rainfall amounts on Wednesday night, with over 1 inch possible
across the northern Sandhills.
- Near daily rain and thunderstorms continue Thursday through the
weekend, but the severe risk is uncertain.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
The main concern in the short term will be the return of very hot
temperatures today across mainly north central Nebraska and portions
of northern Nebraska. Current guidance shows 850 mb temperatures in
the 26 to 31 C range continuing to surge into Nebraska today. This
will result in surface temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for
southwest Nebraska and into the eastern Panhandle. Slightly
cooler surface highs (low to mid 90s) will be present in north
central Nebraska, but with the combination of very high humidity
in this region, the highest heat indices will actually be in
this location. Expect afternoon heat indices to easily rise into
the low to mid 100s. There is some concern across Boyd county,
especially along the Missouri River, where there may be some
heat indices 105 or greater. Confidence is low at reaching these
values at this time, but it will need to be monitored during
the day and it may need to be upgraded to an extreme heat
warning. For now, have gone head and issued a heat advisory for
Keya Paha, Boyd and Holt county where the greatest impacts are
expected. See the latest headline for additional details.
In addition to heat concerns, thunderstorms will develop once again
this afternoon portions of the eastern Panhandle and into the
Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. There is some uncertainty in
regards to coverage as well as timing of storms this afternoon and
evening. Current thinking is that isolated storms will develop by
4pm CT across the Panhandle and northeast Colorado before tracking
east into the evening hours. Coverage may become more scattered if
storms form more of a line as some of the latest CAMs suggest, but
confidence is low in this outcome at this time. With some modest
instability across the region, any thunderstorms that can develop
will have the potential to become severe. The greatest threats with
these storms damaging wind gusts, but some hail is also possible if
storms remain discrete.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
The severe thunderstorm risk returns on Wednesday. While there will
be enough instability to support large hail and strong winds, the
heavy rain potential is becoming increasingly more concerning. The
latest probabilities show the potential of seeing over 1 inch of
rainfall near 30 to 40 percent across portions of the Sandhills on
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. While not a significant
number, it is an area to watch over the next few days for possible
increases in heavy rainfall and possible localized flooding. In
addition, the latest EFI and SoT graphics are beginning to lean more
towards a high likelihood of extreme, potentially record-breaking,
high QPF amounts occurring on Wednesday night and into Thursday
leading to a higher confidence that these greater rainfall amounts
are going to occur. Current forecast has a narrow ribbon of at least
1 inch of rainfall, up to 1.5 inches in some locations across the
northern Sandhills. This will likely change over the next few
forecast cycles as we will continue to monitor this event and heavy
rain potential over the next few days and models get a better handle
on the environment.
Beyond Wednesday night, near daily isolated rain and thunderstorm
chances will continue Wednesday through next weekend as several
disturbances move through the region. At this time, confidence in
locations of impact and timing is low and therefore, the severe
potential is low at this time, but a stronger storm or two cannot be
ruled out completely with small hail and strong wind gusts being the
main threats.
Temperatures will cool slightly on Wednesday through the remainder
of the week which should help eliminate heat index concerns through
the end of the week. However, widespread 90s return along with
increased humidity for next weekend which may lead to a return to
heat headlines by the end of the weekend once again.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Overall, VFR conditions will remain in place across the region
today. Some storm development is possible late this afternoon and
evening but are expected to remain isolated. Therefore, confidence
in storms impacting either terminal is low and has been left out of
the prevailing forecast at this time. However, any storm that does
develop has the potential for strong winds and hail as well as heavy
rainfall reducing visibilities briefly.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this
evening for NEZ006-007-010.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik
####018005091####
FXUS64 KMAF 221128
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
- The best chances of rain this forecast will be today/tonight,
ranging from 10-20% in the Permian Basin to 60-70% in the Davis
Mountains. No severe weather is anticipated.
- As a result of increased rain chances, today will be the coolest
day this forecast, with highs averaging right around normal.
- Warmer and drier conditions are in store from Wednesday into
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Ongoing showers and storms tonight over portions of southeast New
Mexico and far West Texas are beginning to diminish. These were
brought to us courtesy of an upper-level low that continues to move
toward our area out of Central Texas, along the edge of an upper
ridge centered over the southeastern US. Lift associated with this
feature and other smaller disturbances, combined with plentiful
moisture ahead of it, promote rain chances in the short term
forecast. The best odds of shower/storm development this afternoon
will be over the higher terrain west of the Pecos River and much of
southeast New Mexico, where PoPs currently sit between 40-70%. Areas
east of the Pecos will have low rain chances (10-30%) this afternoon.
During the evening, isolated to scattered storm activity is expected
across the region, with the best rain chances (40-60%) again west of
the Pecos. Tonight and into Wednesday, the upper low will begin to
take a turn to the northeast and head toward Oklahoma. Before it
departs and takes our rain chances with it Wednesday afternoon, the
western half of our region will have a low to medium (10-50%) chance
of seeing additional rainfall. The bullseye for rain chances will be
in and around the Davis Mountains.
Aside from rain chances, the lower heights associated with this
upper-level low will keep our temperatures near normal today and
tomorrow. Highs both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon are forecast to
top out in the low to mid 90s for most. Areas in and near the
mountains are looking to max out in the mid to upper 80s. Enjoy
these conditions while they last! Hotter and drier weather awaits in
the long term.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
A warming/drying trend is on tap for West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico. Thursday, the upper ridge is forecast to extend from
Chihuahua/Coahuila east to the Carolinas and into the Atlantic. This
feature is forecast to develop west and north into next week, w/the
LREF and deterministic models centering near the Panhandles by 00Z
Tuesday. This will result in increasing thicknesses/temperatures
through Thursday/Friday, with Friday being perhaps the warmest day
this forecast as triple digits develop in the river valleys and
Permian Basin. Even so, highs should average only around 5 F above
normal, and not warm enough to warrant any heat products. Of
course, there's always the possibility of drying soils having a
positive feedback on increasing temperatures further, but this
doesn't appear to be in the cards yet. After Friday, thicknesses
come down a bit, and by Monday afternoon, highs should only be a
couple of degrees above climatology. Unfortunately, a recurring LLJ
each night will keep lows uncomfortably warm...around 5-6 F above
normal.
As would be expected, rain chances during the extended are slim-to-
none, and slim has left the building. About the only place
convection is anticipated is the Davis Mountains, where chances will
be minimal into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail. PROB30s have been included
at most sites for this afternoon and evening as confidence in
shower/storm development has increased, but exact timing and
location remains uncertain. The strongest storms may produce
frequent lightning and strong winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 95 74 96 75 / 20 20 10 0
Carlsbad 93 70 94 71 / 40 40 10 0
Dryden 95 75 97 75 / 20 10 10 0
Fort Stockton 93 71 94 73 / 40 20 30 10
Guadalupe Pass 83 64 85 68 / 50 40 20 0
Hobbs 92 69 92 70 / 40 30 10 0
Marfa 84 63 85 63 / 60 40 50 10
Midland Intl Airport 94 74 95 75 / 20 20 10 10
Odessa 93 73 94 74 / 30 20 10 10
Wink 93 71 93 71 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...95
####018003362####
FXUS65 KVEF 221129
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
429 AM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Breezy southerly winds and dry conditions raise elevated fire
weather concerns this afternoon in southern Nevada.
* Aside from isolated shower and thunderstorm potential today and
tomorrow, dry conditions persist through the weekend.
* Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through the end of
the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Monday.
A shortwave trough will move further into the Pacific Northwest
today, bringing breezy southerly to southwesterly surface winds to
the forecast area. These winds combined with low humidity results in
elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon across southern
Nevada, but parameters are marginal and fire weather headlines do
not appear necessary at this time. Breezy afternoon winds will
gradually decrease through the rest of the week as a low closes off
the California coast and pressure gradients become less pronounced.
Southwesterly flow around the trough and closed low will continue to
send dry air into the region. An isolated shower or two cannot be
ruled out over Mohave County and the Sierra today and tomorrow, but
besides that precipitation is not expected through the rest of the
week and this weekend. Ensembles suggest that precipitation
potential may return next week if the position of high pressure to
the east becomes favorable for monsoonal moisture advection. Will
continue to monitor this potential with upcoming forecasts.
The cut-off low off the coast of California will maintain
anomalously low 500 mb heights over the region, which means that
cooler than normal temperatures will linger through the weekend. For
Las Vegas, this means highs in the upper 90s to low 100s each
afternoon. Temperatures return to near average temperatures early
next week as high pressure pushes back into the region and heights
aloft rise.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period with no operationally
significant clouds. Southerly winds will increase and become gusty
later this morning, lasting through sunset with peak gusts around 20
knots. After sunset, south to southwesterly winds may hover around
10 knots into the evening. Temperatures will get very close to, but
may not quite reach, 100F between 22Z and 00Z.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Thunderstorm chances
this afternoon should be limited to high terrain in Mohave County
and the Sierra, with VFR conditions expected around the rest of the
region. Winds will follow typical daytime patterns. Southerly winds
gusting 15 to 25 knots increase in the afternoon across much of the
area, decreasing in the evening and overnight.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Meltzer
For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter
####018006122####
FXUS62 KMFL 221129
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
729 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Surface low pressure will continue to drift southwestward from the
SC/GA border area to settling over northern Florida today through
tomorrow. Additionally, the TUTT low is currently present near the
central Bahamas and will continue to advect westward for the next
couple of days, eventually pushing into the western Gulf waters.
This disturbance will provide a quality lifting mechanism that along
with a deep plume of moisture (PWATs of 2+ inches, perhaps even up
to 2.5 inches in spots) will be able to produce an increasing amount
of showers and thunderstorms. The center of the low is expected to
go over the Florida Straits or closer to Cuba, but plenty of energy
will still stream across the local region. A lot of this activity is
expected to be scattered, but overall will cover much more surface
area across South Florida versus the last couple of days. In
addition to the low pressure moving through the area, additional
forcing will be provided by the sea breezes to spark showers and
storms.
Currently, expected rainfall each day the next two days is in the
range of 0.5-1.5 inches with a reasonable worst case scenario
showing about 1.5-2.5 inches, which would not be enough to cause
flooding concerns. However, the HREF LPMM does show 6-hour
precipitation potential of 3-5 inches in isolated areas, so
localized flooding is not entirely out of the question.
Nevertheless, flooding even on a local level does appear to have a
low chance of occurring, but it just can't be entirely ruled out.
In addition to rainfall, while there is no true severe threat given
that parameters don't jump off the charts, the disturbance could
bring in some slightly cooler temps aloft and provide enough
instability along with boundary collisions along the sea breezes to
get a couple of stronger cores. Guidance also highlights decent
DCAPE values (700-1000 J/kg) to support a couple of stronger
downbursts. Thus, there does remain a chance for a couple of near-
severe storms or even an isolated marginally severe storm the next
two days.
High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s across
South Florida today before rain hits and low 90s on Wednesday.
Overnight lows expected in the low to mid 70s for interior areas and
mid to upper 70s closer to the coasts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
The low is expected to linger on Thursday, resulting in one more day
of increased shower and thunderstorm coverage, although most of the
forcing from the low will have departed off into the Gulf, so
potentially less rain across the region on Thursday.
For the end of the week and into this weekend, surface high pressure
and a mid-level ridge are expected to rebuild across the western
Atlantic and Florida Peninsula along with a drier air mass returning
as some saharan dust (SAL) also approaches from the east. This would
bring some quieter weather back to the area and less coverage of
rain showers and storms. If this setup holds, any shower and
thunderstorm chances would heavily depend on the amount of moisture
available and diurnal mesoscale circulations with the sea breezes.
Right now, PWATs look to fall well below climo on Saturday (under
1.4-1.5 inches or even less) and then rebounds a bit on Sunday, so
this suggests minimal spatial coverage for the weekend in terms of
shower and thunderstorm development.
High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s on
Thursday, though most areas likely will be in the low 90s. With
drier conditions possible late in the week and over the weekend,
temperatures may rebound a bit higher again potentially to the mid
to upper 90s and bring back risks for excessive heat. This threat
will continue to be assessed in the next several days.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
VFR conditions persist through the morning ahead of SHRA/TSRA this
afternoon which could result in MVFR/IFR conditions across all
East Coast sites. Light and variable winds this morning with a
generally southwesterly component. The East Coast and Gulf Coast sea
breezes look to work in around 16Z. Conditions improve around
nightfall, with light and variable winds overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025
Overall benign conditions continue across the local waters through
the mid-week period. A gentle and highly variable flow continues
today with winds increasing to slightly out of the east-southeast
for the Atlantic and west for the Gulf with their respective sea
breezes. On Wednesday, winds begin to increase to moderate speeds
out of the southeast across all waters as a disturbance moves
through. With the disturbance, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to increase in coverage and can cause locally hazardous
seas. In general, seas are still expected under 2 feet for all local
waters the next few days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 92 79 90 80 / 70 50 50 30
West Kendall 92 75 90 77 / 70 40 60 20
Opa-Locka 93 78 92 80 / 70 40 50 20
Homestead 91 78 89 80 / 60 40 50 30
Fort Lauderdale 91 78 90 80 / 60 50 50 20
N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 91 81 / 60 50 50 20
Pembroke Pines 95 80 93 82 / 70 40 50 20
West Palm Beach 92 76 91 79 / 70 50 50 20
Boca Raton 93 76 92 80 / 70 50 50 20
Naples 91 77 91 77 / 70 60 70 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...ATV