####018010034#### FXUS62 KMHX 162300 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 700 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Inland troughing is expected through tonight, followed by a cold front passage on Saturday. High pressure then builds in late in the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/... As of 7 PM Fri...Focus cont to be on severe risk this evening across nrn portions of the FA, but also towards morning. First this evening, severe storms are moving into NC around the Roanoke Rapids area, and time of arrival tools indicate reaching the Albemarle counties of Tyrrell and Dare in the next hour or so. Svr thunderstorm watch cont for this threat. Late tonight, svr storms ongoing in KY are forecast by at least several CAM's, including the NSSL MPAS runs which have handled overnight MCS events in the past well, to race through NC and potentially hold together after 9z, affecting ENC in the predawn hours. If this activity holds together, a damaging wind threat may exist despite some sfc CIN, as ML CAPES between 1,500-2,000 J/KG and 35+ kt shear remain through the overnight hours. Have drawn in 20-30% pops to highlight this potential. Prev disc...As of 410 PM Friday...Hot and humid conditions unfolding across the Carolinas this afternoon as a potential mid-level ridge axis sits along the southeastern coastline. Surface fronts are largely absent from the region but lee trough, typical of strong surface heating, continues to sharpen near our coast. Cirrus has steadily intruded the skies from upstream convection through the morning, but that has not stopped temps from climbing towards the low 90s. Main focus tonight is a highly conditional but impactful severe weather threat. Current ridging is keeping a layer of moderate subsidence in place, evident by a dearth of cumulus across most of the coast. However, this ridge is forecast to flatten through tonight as strong shortwave currently over the central plains digs into the TN/OH River Valleys, ushering in less hostile upper support. At the surface, heat and humidity has built up considerable instability - up to 3500 to 4000 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis - and effective shear is forecast to increase north of 40-50 kt through the evening as shortwave axis draws nearer. The question is whether convection will be able to persist into eastern NC despite hostile conditions aloft. The expectation is a cluster of storms in southwestern Virginia will continue to grow upscale as it rides the ridge axis, which would eventually steer it across the northern half of the FA. Only a handful of CAMs depict this MCS holding together as it moves along and north of Highway 264, with the majority showing this activity falling apart and giving the area only weakening showers/storms or nothing at all. The HRRR, which earlier this morning showed the most aggressive convective solution, as steadily done a U-turn and now favors a dry solution keeping convection in Virginia. In highly unstable environments like this, models have had a tendency to not hold MCS activity together long enough, but recent trends must be acknowledged. The previous forecast has largely been maintained, showing 20-30% PoPs mainly along and north of 264, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for these areas through 11 PM. If storms do hold together, the pre-storm environment favors damaging winds (potentially in excess of 70 mph given severe instability), as well as hail. Tornado potential is lower compared to yesterday. Ridge will flatten further overnight as upper trough steadily shifts further east. Multiple MCSs may be ongoing overnight, but questions over the ongoing mid-level cap lower confidence in thunderstorm potential. How convection evolves over the few hours will play a big role in what unfolds overnight. Pre-storm environment would remain favorable for an ongoing wind and hail risk, if MCSs that progress through the area manage to hold together. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... As of 425 PM Fri...Cold front will be lagging the region tomorrow, still west of the Appalachians, while another lee trough is forecast to develop across the central portion of the state in persistent heat and humidity as highs again reach into the low 90s. Focus will again be the conditional threat for strong storms, firing along the inland trough and with upper support from the upper trough axis expected to cross the region during the afternoon. Again, this development is conditional on how the next 24 hours unfold as a successful MCS passage in the morning may stabilize the airmass too much to support afternoon activity. Additionally, subsidence and mid-level drying behind the MCS may also dampen storm potential. If nothing does unfold tonight, storms appear more likely tomorrow afternoon and early evening. CAMs favor areas south of Highway 264, and here the pre- storm environment is similar to today's - CAPEs 3000-3500 and effective shear in excess of 40-45 kt. Damaging winds, potentially up to 70 mph, and hail remain possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 0430 Friday...A series of weak cold fronts pushes through the area this weekend with a more significant system to impact the area late next week. Weekend...The front is forecast to slowly sink S of the FA through Sunday before stalling over the region. Next week...Quiet and relatively cool compared to the weekend early week with downsloping NWerly flow aloft between the departing low and shortwave ridging briefly amplifying over SECONUS. The next vertically stacked low to dig toward the Carolinas midweek upping cloudiness and rain chances again through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Saturday/... As of 7 PM Friday... KEY MESSAGES - Low confidence TSRA risk over the next 24 hrs Guidance hints at two chances for thunderstorms, with one this evening into the early overnight hours and the second near dawn tomorrow morning. Large uncertainty still exists within the models regarding TSRA occurrence, so have opted to keep a VFR TAF for all terminals with an added PROB30 group. The focus through tomorrow morning will be TSRA well upstream across the TN and OH Valleys. Some guidance suggests this activity will survive the trek across the Appalachians and the piedmont of the Carolinas, eventually reaching ENC late tonight tonight. Should this scenario play out, the environment appears supportive of strong wind gusts of 30-50kt+ and tempo sub-VFR conditions. Stay tuned for updates in case confidence were to increase regarding the TSRA potential. Outside of the TSRA potential, the risk of LLWS impacts after 06z tonight (associated with a modest southwesterly low-level jet) has decreased some. Thus, have removed LLWS mention from TAFs; however, some potential still remains. This will continue to be monitored. LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 0400 Friday...Series of weak cold fronts push through the FA this weekend bringing chances of showers and tstorms which represent subVFR potential. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Saturday/... As of 430 PM Friday... A modest pressure gradient across the area this afternoon will continue through tonight and tighten tomorrow, supporting a continuation of modest southwesterly flow (10-20kt) across area waters. Boating conditions deteriorate tomorrow with tightening gradient ahead of the front. Gusts over coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound increase to 25-30 kt, and SCA remains in effect for those zones tomorrow midday into the overnight hours. Seas offshore stay at 3-4 feet in currently flow, but will increase to 5-6 feet by tomorrow afternoon. In general, the thunderstorm risk appears much lower today compared to yesterday. That said, at least some guidance suggests a cluster of thunderstorms may impact the central and northern waters later today through this evening. Should this occur, there would be an increased risk of 30-50kt+ wind gusts. LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/... As of 0430 Friday... Secondary backdoor front sinks S across waters late Sunday. High pressure builds in with Nerly surge late SUN night/MON AM. Generally 10-15kt winds slowly through early week N-NEerly Tuesday becoming Eerly Wednesday as offshore high departs SEward and next low approaches from the W. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for May 16th, Friday. LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/1933 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 84/1994 and 1991 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 94/1962 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 89/1995 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 91/1998 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for May 17th, Saturday. LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 95/1941 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 86/1991 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 95/1915 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 85/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 96/1941 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 93/1990 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 11 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...MS SHORT TERM...MS LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...CEB/ZC MARINE...MS/CEB CLIMATE...MHX ####018008223#### FXUS64 KEWX 162300 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 600 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 507 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued across Burnet, Llano, Williamson counties until midnight tonight. Isolated thunderstorms has developed and remain possible across these areas. Large to very large hail is the main hazard followed by strong damaging winds. The heat advisory remains in effect until 7 pm CDT as well for regions generally along and east of the I-35 corridor where heat indices currently are running in the 104 to 111 degree range. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory remains in effect through early evening for portions of South Central Texas. - The heat continues on Saturday with elevated heat index values over portions of South Central Texas. - Low chances for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening and Saturday afternoon/evening. The hot weather conditions continue across South Central Texas with highs in the upper 80s across the Hill Country and lower to mid 90s elsewhere as of 2 PM CDT. Heat indexes are ranging from mid to upper 90s with a few locations at 100-103 across the Hill Country and from 100 to 107 range over the coastal plains and the southern part of the Rio Grande. Expect these values to increase as we hit the heating peak time frame sometime between 4 and 6 PM CDT. With that said, heat index values are likely to reach the 106 to 111 range over areas included in the Heat Advisory. Other than the heat, we have a slight chance for an isolated or two strong to severe storms to develop across the Llano, Burnet, and Williamson Counties late this afternoon ahead of the dryline (warm and moist sector). If they do develop, they could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. As the evening progresses, increased moisture in the form of clouds spreads across the local area with overnight lows in the lower to upper 70s. Patchy fog is expected to develop across the coastal plains as early as midnight and then pushes to the northwest toward the I-35 corridor. Saturday starts warm with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, however, by noon time, partly cloudy skies should dominate most locations of South Central Texas. By noon time, temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s. Another hot day is in store with maximum highs expected to reach the mid to upper 90s across most areas and from 100 to 105 along the Rio Grande. With dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 60s to lower 70s along and east of the I-35 corridor and the southern part of the Rio Grande, can't rule out heat index values ranging from 106 to 108 across the coastal plains and up to 111 across portions of the southern portion of the Rio Grande. We are holding off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Saturday at this time. Future weather forecast packages may include a Heat Advisory using latest model guidance. Just continue to exercise heat safety measures. Saturday could look different across the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and the Hill Country as strong to severe thunderstorms develop ahead of the dryline and couple of upper level pulses of energy arriving in the afternoon and early evening. These storms could produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. The activity likely lingers through the middle evening period. Between the rain and cool pool of these storms, overnight lows across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country are forecasted to drop to the upper 60s with the rest of the local area in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures continue Sunday through Tuesday with risk of heat-related impacts - Low chances (10-20%) for showers and storms late Monday afternoon and evening and on Tuesday - Temperatures closer to normal Wednesday and Thursday Dry conditions are forecast Sunday and Sunday night for most areas, with the exception of a low (10-20%) chance of isolated late afternoon and evening storms along the dry line across the northwest Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. The dry line advances farther east on Monday afternoon, tapping into better moisture, producing low chances (10-20%) of isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor. The dry line retreats back west late Monday night, then a shortwave moving through the southern Plains sends the dry line back east into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor Tuesday, with a cold front overtaking it Tuesday night. Low confidence in timing and chances of convection with these features, and we are currently sticking close to the NBM 20% chances of showers and storms along and east of I-35/I-37 Tuesday. Above average temperatures continue Sunday and through Tuesday, with elevated heat indices east of the dry line. There is lower confidence in the strength of the front and temperatures behind it Wednesday and Thursday, but we have trended high temperatures cooler than the NBM. This puts high temperatures close to, or slightly above, normals for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 This evening's convection over the Hill Country stretching from near Mason to the Killeen area should remain to the north of our area terminal sites. As a result, expect for continued VFR flight conditions through the first half of the night before low clouds with MVFR then IFR ceilings develop at the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) after midnight into Saturday morning. A slight reduction in visibility is possible at KAUS as well. KDRT should remain VFR through the night but a few low clouds could arrive at or just after sunrise Saturday. Ceilings should improve to VFR levels into Friday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered storm will again try to develop late Saturday afternoon and evening. However, confidence at this time remains too low to insert into this TAF package. Winds will remain of light to moderate breezes out of the south-southeast over the I-35 terminals and east-southeast to variable at KDRT. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY (* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN) FRI SAT SUN MON 05/16 05/17 05/18 05/19 ---------------------------------------------- AUS 97/2018* 97/2018 97/2022 97/2006 ATT 99/2022* 99/2022 98/2022 98/2022* SAT 97/2022* 100/2022 101/2022 101/1989 DRT 107/2013 105/2013 107/2024 108/2020 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 76 95 74 98 / 10 20 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 96 74 97 / 10 20 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 97 74 98 / 10 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 74 94 72 95 / 30 30 30 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 100 79 103 / 10 30 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 95 72 96 / 20 30 30 10 Hondo Muni Airport 74 98 73 99 / 10 10 20 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 73 98 / 10 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 93 75 95 / 0 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 98 76 98 / 10 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 99 76 100 / 10 10 20 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop- Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe- Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Medina-Travis-Uvalde-Wilson-Zavala. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...76 Aviation...Brady ####018007533#### FXUS65 KVEF 162302 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 401 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures will continue today with light afternoon breezes. A stray shower may develop along the Sierra crest this afternoon with gusty winds and sprinkles in the Owens Valley. A weather system will drop into the region over the weekend bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and shower chances to mainly the Great Basin. Conditions will improve next week with warm conditions returning. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. An upper level system will dig into the region on Saturday which will bring increasing winds to the region. South to southwest winds increase in response to the increasing pressure gradient with impactful gusts over 40 MPH in the valleys and gusts up to 60 MPH in the terrain likely late Saturday morning through Saturday evening across San Bernardino, far southern Nevada, and Mohave counties. A wind advisory is in effect for these areas on Saturday where wind impacts with strong crosswinds, patchy blowing dust, difficult travel and boating conditions, and easily blown away light weight items are most likely. No changes were made to the wind headlines at this time, however a few places were considered: Looked at adding the Sierra slopes and Owens Valley to the Saturday wind Advisory as NBM 24hr Max Gust probabilities for over 40 MPH are 70%+. However, looking at the hourly data, probabilities are lower and isolated. Looked at downsloping set up down Sierra into the Owens Valley but it didnt look ideal and the stronger winds remained mostly in the high to mid slopes. There were some instances in hi- res models and ensemble members that did show higher gust 40 MPH+ in the Owens Valley, but it's very short lived. Held off on issuing any wind headlines for the Sierra and Owens Valley for now, it may still be needed but the stronger winds would likely be later in the day compared to the rest of the region so will continue to watch trends for a better signal and confidence increases. Also looked at the need to upgrade any of the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning, with the highest potential for this being in the Western Mojave Desert as well as on the lee side of the Spring Mountains. In the Western Mojave Desert, the low level jet briefly increases to 50-60 MPH between 5 PM to 11 PM Saturday evening. Forecast soundings show these winds struggling to make it to the surface as we decouple after sunset. There is an increase in probabilities for gusts over 58 MPH Saturday evening that matches up with the increasing low level jet, but the highest probabilities mainly focus on the terrain- valley areas show lower probabilities and only a brief uptick in the winds. For these reasons, did not upgrade to a High Wind Warning. On the lee-side of the Spring Mts, cross sections show a better potential for downsloping that in the Sierra, however it still is not great and models show max winds of 50-55MPH transitioning down the mountain. While these winds would be impactful as they would result in strong crosswinds over US-95 between Desert Rock and Indian Springs, winds should be sub-60 MPH and thus will continue with the wind advisory with wording that highlights this crosswind impact. Saturday night and Sunday, winds will become northwest as the main trough shifts east. A second piece of energy that rides down the anticyclonic side eof this trough and reinforce these winds Sunday afternoon. There continues to be model discrepancy about how strong this reinforcing shortwave will be and thus creates uncertainty in how strong the winds will be Sunday afternoon. Probabilities for wind gusts over 40 MPH are highest in northern Inyo County through Esmeralda and central Nye however it occurs Saturday night and is confined to the terrain. Winds are not as strong on Sunday, and while there is some potential for wind impacts Sunday afternoon is the stronger solution with the shortwave comes to fruition- the probability for widespread impacts Sunday afternoon is fairly low. The best chance would be in the Colorado River Valley as north winds will build waves and could impact boating. In addition to the winds, the systems this weekend may also bring precipitation to the Southern Great Basin area. The best chance will be Saturday afternoon when forcing is highest and weak instability is able to develop. PWATs will remain around 100%-150%, or about 0.50-0.75 inch, and low levels will struggle to saturate- so precipitation impacts will be low. There is a low probability (about 30%) for over 0.25 inches total of rain in Lincoln County, otherwise precipitation will remain light. Any thunderstorms that are able to develop could produce lightning and sudden gusty winds with dry low levels. On Sunday, there is a lingering risk for showers and isolated thunderstorms in eastern Lincoln and northern Mohave County, however the probabilities for rain are lower and more isolated than Saturday. Temperatures through the weekend will cool each day with each system. On Saturday, high temperatures will run about 3-5 degrees below normal, then about 5-8 degrees below normal on Sunday. .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday. Ridging sets up over the region as the trough exits to the east. As this happens, temperatures will return to above average values. Las Vegas has a 63 percent probability of reaching its first 100 degree day on Thursday. By Thursday, expect widespread Moderate (Level 2) HeatRisk across the desert valleys, a level of heat that affects anyone sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate cooling or hydration. There is also the potential for some Major (Level 3) HeatRisk along the Colorado River, which affects anyone without effective cooling or hydration. Given the placement under high pressure, dry conditions and non-impactful winds are forecast through the long term. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Breezy south-southwest winds continue this afternoon with gusts around 20 knots. Winds remain southerly overnight though gusts should cease and speeds weaken. Strong south-southwest winds tomorrow as gusts reach 30-40 knots. SCT-BKN clouds at or above 15kft move in today and persist through tomorrow. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Breezy south-southwest winds continue across most of the area this afternoon. Expecting gusts in the 15-25 knot range. As the sun sets, winds will weaken everywhere except DAG where they will remain breezy overnight. Stronger south-southwest winds forecast tomorrow, except at BIH where winds will be northwesterly. VFR conditions prevail throughout the TAF period with SCT-BKN clouds at or above 10kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nickerson LONG TERM...Meltzer AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter