####018005253#### FXUS63 KLBF 162315 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 615 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very strong northwest wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible across north central into central Nebraska into early this evening with High Wind Warning in effect until 8pm CDT. - Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday night lasting through Tuesday with an increasing risk of severe storms especially on Sunday afternoon/Sunday night where there is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 An upper level low and surface low was currently centered over central Minnesota. A tight H7 gradient will continue to bring strong northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts as high as 50 to 60 mph through late afternoon, diminishing through sunset. Light rain showers over portions of north central and central Nebraska will come to an end by late this afternoon. Dry conditions tonight, with clearing skies from west to east overnight. A weak high pressure ridge will settle over the area tonight, with winds becoming light and variable across the west. Lows will be coldest across the northwest Sandhills in the mid 30s, where patchy frost is expected. Upper 30s to near 40 across the remainder of the area. Saturday, will see a weak transitory upper ridge cross the area. Winds will be light, becoming southeast 10 to 15 mph across southwestern areas. Warmer, with highs mid 70s southwest, to the mid and upper 60s north central. An upper trough will move into the western U.S. Will see scattered showers and storms develop in the afternoon to our west across southeast Wyoming into the western Panhandle and northern Colorado. This activity should remain just to our west through late afternoon. Saturday night, the upper trough will deepen across the Pacific Northwest into the Four Corners Region. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase along with an increase in atmospheric moisture. Increasing POPs during the evening across the western Sandhills, and further east to near Highway 183 overnight. Coverage should be isolated to scattered, with any rainfall light and spotty at a trace to a tenth of an inch, in agreement with the latest 12z CAMs. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Active weather Sunday lasting through next Tuesday as a large upper trough and several rounds of disturbances impact the region. The severe potential increases late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A Slight Risk for severe storms is forecast for areas near and south of Highway 2 and 91. A shortwave trough will lift from the southern Rockies into the central Plains late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A surface low will deepen from southeast Colorado into west central Kansas. This will develop a warm front potentially as far north as Benkelman NE through Salina KS. Uncertainty remains as to how far north the warm front sets up, as the NAM has the warm front about 100 miles further south. While surface based instability may be limited, elevated instability will exist. Strong forcing will be supportive for elevated thunderstorms across the forecast area Sunday evening and overnight. 70 to 90+ POPs forecast. NBM probabilities of a half inch rainfall or greater is 60 to 80 percent from west central to across much of north central Nebraska. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for the most up to date information including timing details, updated threats, and locations of greatest impact. On Monday, a closed low is forecast to extend over the region from Utah into southwest South Dakota. POPs are likely to categorical across north central Nebraska, to chance POPs southwest. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible with the showers. Showers and a few thunderstorms still likely Monday night into Tuesday as the upper low slowly moves east across the Central Plains. Weak upper level ridging returns Wednesday with dry conditions for most locations through next Thursday. Low chances for showers and storms returns Thursday night into next Friday. Temperatures begin to drop Sunday through Tuesday as plenty of clouds and precipitation are expected. Expect highs to struggle to only rise into the 50s on Tuesday. Temperatures begin to rise once again to near normal in the 70s Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Low stratus with MVFR CIGs will slowly exit north central Nebraska tonight, with VFR expected to prevail for all area terminals tomorrow. Strong northwest winds persist through sunset across the area, before gradually weakening overnight. Winds shift to the east-southeast tomorrow afternoon, at around 10 to 15kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ005>010-025>029-038-094. && $$ SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Brown ####018007546#### FXUS63 KTOP 162318 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 618 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry today and Saturday. - Rain chances increase Sunday morning north of a warm front before severe storm chances increase by the afternoon and evening. All modes of severe weather will be possible with storms Sunday. See discussion for further details. - Cold front pushes through the area Monday afternoon and evening with additional chances for severe weather across eastern Kansas. - Cooler and cloudy conditions build in Tuesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 19Z water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a cutoff low over the Great lakes region, a 50-70kt sub-tropical jet extending from Baja California to the Ohio River Valley, and associated convection that has begun to develop in central Missouri. Across eastern Kansas, a surface trough has shifted southeast of the area, ushering in gusty northwesterly winds. This should help to keep temperatures from warming much higher than the low to mid 80s this afternoon. For the remainder of the afternoon, pressure gradients should remain tight into this evening with an 850 mb jet streak pushing into southeast Nebraska. This will help to keep very gusty winds across the area, especially across north-central and far northeast Kansas with occasional gusts to 35-40 mph. Winds should subside just after sunset as the boundary layer decouples. By Saturday, the northern upper low will push east, ushering in surface ridging to the central Plains. Pleasant conditions will be expected Saturday as low humidity, light northerly winds and temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and low 80s build in for the afternoon. Changes begin to build into the area Saturday evening as the 850 mb ridge axis slides east of Kansas and begins to push moisture back north. By Sunday morning, our next upper low begins to dig south into the central Rockies and in response, will quickly deepen a surface cyclone across eastern Colorado. Cyclogenesis will continue through the morning Sunday as a warm front will slowly lift north out of northern Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. With a 30-40 knot LLJ overriding this frontal boundary across eastern Kansas, precipitation north of the boundary will likely increase Sunday morning. Morning precipitation chances should just be light to moderate rain shower activity, but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out as elevated instability increase into the later morning hours. The main timeframe of discussion comes later in the afternoon Sunday as the warm front begins to slow its northward march, stalling somewhere along the I-70 corridor in eastern Kansas as a dryline begins to push into south-central Kansas with the surface low ejecting out across central Kansas. South of the warm front in the warm sector of the cyclone, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50 knots and very steep ML lapse rates will become realized pointing to very strong to severe storm potential across central and eastern Kansas. Parcels that are able to overcome any environmental capping along the dryline in south-central Kansas or along the warm front would be expected to quickly strengthen, posing risks for very large hail (2+ inch) damaging winds (60-70 mph) and a few tornadoes, some possibly strong. That said...confidence is still low to moderate for severe storms Sunday due to several inputs that will likely play a role in who sees severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening. The main uncertainty lies in where the surface features set up Sunday morning and afternoon. CAMs are beginning to come in with their first solutions as to where these boundaries might be, but there still are differences in where the NAM, EURO and GFS want to position these features. Currently, the GFS remains the most bullish in how far north it pushes the warm front with most guidance keeping the warm front along or south of I-70. Model trends have also pushed the dry line a bit further west over the past few runs. If the warm front remains shunted to our south for Sunday, our severe risk will be a bit lower as most severe storms that do move over northeast Kansas will remain elevated, only posing a large hail risk. If the warm front and warm sector can move further north, that opens the door for storms to become surface-based and pose the risk for all modes of severe weather. Another uncertainty with Sunday will be how much of an impact morning showers and cloud cover will have on available instability. Not overly worried this will play too much of a role in limiting severe storms as cooling aloft and increasing surface moisture will keep CAPE values very large. Lastly, some residual capping in the lower levels may limit overall storm coverage if lift remains overly weak. Still, if a storm can develop, remain surface-based, parameters suggest it quickly becoming strong. Storm initiation for Sunday afternoon appears to be around the 3-4 PM timeframe, mainly depending on when MLCIN becomes weakest. As storms move east Sunday evening and overnight into Monday some downstream evolution may become realized as the LLJ increases across southeastern Kansas. This could create some localized flooding concerns, especially if storms train over the same areas. That said, most of Kansas should be storm-free by 06z Monday. By Monday afternoon another round of severe weather will be possible as the main upper low begins to occlude in central Nebraska. A fair amount of uncertainty remains with Monday's severe storms chances as Sunday will likely impact where surface moisture remains for Monday. Overall set up for storms Monday will be along frontal boundary extending from the surface low in Nebraska. A dryline may also become a forcing mechanism Monday afternoon in evening across central Kansas that could kick off storms. Given severe parameters of 40-50 knots of 0-6km shear, a good axis of SBCAPE > 2000 J/kg and steep ML lapse rates, all modes of severe weather will be possible again. It seems that guidance keeps most appreciable surface moisture across far eastern Kansas by Monday afternoon, so it seems like this would be the main area of interest for the most widespread storm coverage Monday afternoon and evening. Stay tuned to the forecast in the coming 48 hours for additional details for Monday's storm threat. Tuesday into the remainder of the week will see conditions characterized by cooler air and mostly cloudy conditions, especially Tues/Wed. Severe storm chances should stay south and east of the area as well. Warmer and sunnier conditions should begin to return to the area Thursday as the upper low finally moves east into the Ohio Valley. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Gusty sfc winds will subside during the first few hours of the 00Z TAF period. Lighter winds are then expected through the night and tomorrow with high pressure moving into the area. VFR will also continue. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Griesemer AVIATION...Teefey ####018005201#### FXUS62 KTAE 162318 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 718 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A ridge of high pressure will begin to flatten out tonight, transitioning us to into more zonal flow pattern as a weak shortwave passes to our north. This will bring a slight chance for some showers tomorrow afternoon over our northern most counties. The rest of us can still expect another hot sunny day with highs around the mid 90s. Tonight, there is the chance for some patchy fog in areas where the winds drop off, with lows staying in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Ongoing showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening will gradually diminish in coverage through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning with loss of daytime heating. A few showers could stick around overnight given the frontal boundary and weak support aloft into Sunday morning. With a flattening ridge, another approaching shortwave trough, and the residual frontal boundary, another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms is possible on Sunday afternoon. Given appreciable shear, any storms that can become strong do have a low-end chance to be severe. Main concerns would be a hail and damaging wind threat. The best rain chances will remained confined to the very northern portions of the forecast area across southeast Alabama and east- northeast towards Albany and points north. As for temperatures, no relief is expected with afternoon highs still well into the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Guidance is in good agreement on a hot and mostly dry pattern continuing through much of the upcoming week. The brief rain chances that occurred over the weekend quickly disappear out of the forecast as upper level ridging redevelops on Monday and Tuesday. This will allow high temperatures to easily hit the mid 90s most afternoons until Wednesday or Thursday when another frontal system moves in. This front should give most of the area a chance at scattered thunderstorms, but with the progressive nature of the pattern and no significant rainfall amounts, relief from the heat appears brief and short lived. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions continue a while longer this evening before MVFR to IFR ceilings return later tonight into Saturday morning. Ceilings begin to lift by mid-morning with VFR conditions taking over by late morning and continuing through the rest of the TAF period. Light to moderate southwesterly to westerly winds are anticipated through the TAF period with a few gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High pressure over the western Atlantic nosing into the eastern Gulf will result in predominantly light southwesterly winds for the next several days. Seas will be around 2 to 3 feet each day with no significant marine impacts anticipated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 High dispersions are expected across most inland areas over the next couple of days thanks to southwesterly transport winds around 10-20 mph and high mixing heights near 5,000 feet each afternoon. Closer to the coast, dispersions will still be good each day. The main concern will be the heat with temperatures in the mid-90s during the afternoon with heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100. A few isolated storms are possible Saturday and Sunday afternoons, mainly north of a line from Dothan to Albany. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 No hydrological concerns will are expected through the next 7 to 10 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 73 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 71 92 70 92 / 0 20 10 10 Albany 70 94 70 94 / 0 20 10 30 Valdosta 69 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 10 Cross City 66 89 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 72 84 71 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ108-112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ735. && $$ NEAR TERM...Humphreys SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys HYDROLOGY...Dobbs