####018004191#### FXUS63 KDDC 162330 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 630 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There are small chances for severe t-storms Saturday and Sunday evenings. - There are small chances for rain showers Monday afternoon. - Cool temperatures in the lower to mid 40s are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A weak disturbance will approach the southern high plains late Saturday as the mid level flow becomes west-southwesterly. A surface trough will form over the southern high plains, along with frontogenesis near the KS/OK state line. Having been suppressed into north Texas, low level moisture will rapidly advect northward into southern Kansas. However, the model solutions of the RAP and HRRR showing the surface boundary across the state line in Oklahoma are more realistic. But an isolated severe t-storm or two with very large hail can't be ruled out around Liberal by late afternoon. A few elevated t-storms are possible Saturday night across the southern half of southwest Kansas, with best chances over south central Kansas. On Sunday, an upper level low will amplify over the western United States. Ahead of this low, a lead shortwave trough will approach the central high plains. Overnight t-storms Saturday night will likely reinforce the front across northern Oklahoma or southern Kansas. Widespread cloud cover is likely north of the front; and this will inhibit warming, resulting in hot air behind the dry line butting up against cooler/moist air. With the mid level warm plume overriding the cool air, a strong capping inversion will likely be in place just east of the dry air. This is not a favorable arrangement for long lived t-storms. Any storm that attempts to form along the boundary could move into stable air and weaken. The best chance of severe storms is along the KS/OK state line from Coldwater to Medicine Lodge and points east where the warm front will be situated. If a storm can maintain itself for a long period of time, then very large hail and tornadoes would be possible. However, the chances for high end severe weather at any one point are very low (less than 10%) and most places will not receive rain. The best chance for locally heavy rain is across south central Kansas with the any t-storm. By the time the main upper level trough arrives Monday, the low level moisture will have been shunted into eastern Kansas. However, given the expected steep lapse rates and residual moisture in the wake of the front, showers and non-severe t-storms are possible with daytime heating. However, the various ensemble means indicate very low mean precipitation amounts. But given the spotty nature of the rain, a few locations could get lucky and receive a quarter of an inch with any heavier shower. After Monday the large upper level trough will gradually progress eastward through Thursday, with surface high pressure buildings across the high plains Wednesday night. This will be a dry period in the absence of deep moisture or strong upper level support. With dry air in place and radiational cooling, expect lows in the lower to mid 40s for Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Given the expected light winds Thursday morning, temperatures across west central Kansas including Scott City, Garden City, Dighton and Syracuse could drop into the mid to high 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current breezy northwest winds will weaken to light and variable in the next hour or so, and continue through the overnight period. By mid/late Saturday morning, winds will begin to increase out of the east-southeast, becoming sustained in the 13-17 kt range gusting to 23-27 kts by early afternoon. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Springer ####018007279#### FXUS62 KCHS 162331 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 731 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will persist through the weekend. A weak cold front may push over the region early next week, remaining generally stationary through Tuesday. A stronger cold front is timed to sweep across the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Early this evening: All is quiet as the sun sets on a very hot day. We will continue to see some thin cirrus and a bit of mid- level cloudiness pass through, but otherwise not much to talk about. Radar imagery shows that the sea breeze remains pinned along the GA coast, where it likely won't make much inland push. However, as you go up to the Charleston County coast the sea breeze should reach Summerville soon and will continue to progress inland. Expect another warm and muggy night, very summer-like. Lows are expected to only dip to around 70 in most areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Saturday: Possible chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning due to outflow from previous night's storms in the Ohio Valley. Some of the recent high res. guidance has been indicating that some convection could reach the region by ~15-16Z and then quickly weaken over the area as we head into the afternoon. Given the dry-air aloft and mid-lvl flow weakening throughout the day, the severe potential with these storms appears low. Expect highs in the low to mid 90s, and overnight lows to dip into the upper 60s to low 70s (mid 70s near the coastline). Sunday: A wavy stationary front might linger over the region throughout the day, as a MCS sourced from the Mid-Mississippi Valley tracks closer, reaching the Lowcountry by the afternoon (~18-19Z). There remains some uncertainty with this setup as it's largely dependent on the placement of the stationary front. Recent runs of the NAM/ECMWF has kept the forecast rather dry, while the GFS has been indicating that some type of disturbance will possibly coincide with the afternoon seabreeze and allow convection to develop in the afternoon. With the temperatures relatively high and dewpoints in the low 70s, there just might be enough instability for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. By sunset, convection should track offshore and temperatures will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s overnight. Given the possible rainfall in the afternoon, patchy fog could develop overnight...however the forecast does not include fog at this time. Monday: Upper-lvl ridging from the Gulf will govern the overall pattern on Monday, with heights gradually increasing throughout the day. With mostly sunny conditions, highs will climb into the low to mid 90s. A seabreeze will likely develop in the afternoon and advance inland, thus it wouldn't be a surprise to see some isolated showers and thunderstorms develop along with this. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday: The axis of the H5 ridge from the Gulf will continue to dominate most of the region on Tuesday and allow highs to reach into the low to mid 90s with upper 90s in SE Georgia. These temperatures could definitely challenge the the record temperatures, see climate section below. With hot and dry conditions, thanks to the ridging aloft, any precipitation seems unlikely and kept the forecast dry. Overnight, temperatures will dip into the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday through Friday: A strong upper- lvl low situated over the Mid-west will continue to advance northeastward overhead, as an associated cold front sweeps through the region on Wednesday afternoon. With the support of a likely favorable environment in the afternoon, severe thunderstorms on Wednesday will definitely be possible. Some model guidance have already started to hint of the development of something severe, however uncertainty remains as this is still very far out in the forecast. Moving on Thursday and Friday, this aforementioned upper-lvl low will shift over New England and eventually off the coast by the end of the week. Due to the passage of the cold front, highs on Thursday and Friday will be slightly cooler than previous days but will track just along normal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Sunday. Winds will be breezy out of the west or southwest beginning around midday Saturday and continuing through the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late in the afternoon or early in the evening, but the chance of direct impacts is too low to include anything in the TAF's at this point. Extended Aviation Outlook: Some brief flight restrictions could be possible on Sunday afternoon with the showers and thunderstorms. Other than that, VFR conditions will persist. && .MARINE... Tonight: Southwest winds 10-15 kt will prevail with seas 2-3 ft. Saturday through Wednesday: Ahead of the outflow boundary from previous night's weather in the Ohio Valley, south- southwesterly winds could become a bit gusty on Saturday with gusts approaching 25 kts in the afternoon. However, this remains under Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Afterwards, Sunday through Tuesday, high pressure will dominate over the Atlantic waters and result in relatively calm southerly winds with an increase in winds each afternoon associated with the seabreeze. Moving on to Wednesday, a strong cold front is expected to pass over the marine waters in the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms may develop along this cold front and result in wind gusts well over 25 kts. Generally seas will be 2 to 3 ft, then 3 to 4 ft Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for Wednesday, however holding off for now until more guidance comes in for this. && .CLIMATE... The high temperature for today at KCHS is 94, which ties the daily record high for the date. The high temperature for today at KSAV is 95, which ties the daily record high for the date. The low temperature observed so far today at KCHS is 72. If this holds through 1 AM Saturday, this will establish a new record high minimum for the date. The previous record was 71 last set in 2018. Record High Temperatures: May 17: KCHS: 96/1963 KCXM: 94/1899 KSAV: 97/1899 May 18: KSAV: 97/1899 May 19: KSAV: 97/1996 May 20: KSAV: 96/2006 Record High Minimum Temperatures: May 17: KCHS: 74/1995 KCXM: 75/1998 KSAV: 74/1995 May 18: KCHS: 75/1995 KCXM: 77/1991 KSAV: 74/1899 May 19: KSAV: 74/1930 May 20: KCHS: 72/2022 KCXM: 76/2022 KSAV: 73/1896 May 21: KCHS: 74/2022 KSAV: 74/2017 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...BSH MARINE... ####018005299#### FXUS66 KMTR 162334 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 434 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 137 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Breezy to windy conditions and cooler temperatures on tap for the weekend as a potent system enters the Great Basin. A warming and drying trend is expected through the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 137 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Mostly clear sky conditions have returned to the region this afternoon. Afternoon temperatures will be within a few degrees (-5 to +5) of seasonal averages. However, passing high clouds continue over the region. Low clouds are likely to return tonight and into Saturday morning, and push further inland, as we have abundant low level moisture. Coastal drizzle will also be possible Saturday morning as the marine layer deepens overnight. Low clouds spreading further inland, the deepening of the marine layer, and an approaching trough of low pressure will result in a slight cool down for Saturday afternoon. Maximum forecast high temperatures will range from the mid 50's to mid 60's on northwest facing coastal locations to upper 60's to mid 70's across the interior. Northwesterly winds are expected by Saturday afternoon with gusts 25-35 mph in lower elevations across the region with stronger gusts up to 45 mph in the higher elevations and just along the North Bay coast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 137 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Winds ease slightly Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the exception of the higher elevations. Breezy and gusty winds will persist on Sunday afternoon with similar values mentioned above, maybe a tad bit stronger. The aforementioned upper level trough will dig into the Great Basin through Sunday before ejecting further to the east. This will result in northerly, potentially offshore winds in the higher elevations and typically windy gaps and passes of Napa, Contra Costa, Alameda, and Santa Clara counties Sunday night into Monday. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions as humidity values will be in the 40-50% range Sunday night and as low as 15% on Monday afternoon (again in the higher elevations). High pressure will begin to build into the Pacific Northwest and northern California in wake of the exiting trough with the warmest day currently anticipated to be Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon look to be 5-15 degrees above seasonal averages with mid 60's to mid 70's for coastal areas, mid 70's to lower 80s across the bayshore, and mid 80's to lower 90's across the interior. More of a zonal flow is expected by late next week with the likely return of a shallow marine layer and more seasonal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 423 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR is expected to persist through much of the evening, until coastal stratus and patchy fog produce /IFR- MVFR/ cigs, primarily after midnight. Gusty northwest winds aloft will result in periods of low level wind shear at KSTS Airport 12z-17z Saturday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR is expected to persist through much of the evening with /IFR- MVFR/ cigs set to settle in after midnight. Gusty westerly winds will produce wind gusts at or exceeding 35 knots at times this evening, with an Airport Weather Warning in place until 9 PM tonight. Similarly gusty winds are expected to develop Saturday afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR due to coastal stratus developing tonight, a few patches of light drizzle are possible as well. Cigs may break at times until late in the overnight, when MVFR cigs are expected to persist through the day and evening hours with the development of steady onshore winds from 10 to 20 knots, strongest from Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1045 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Gusty to strong northwest winds will continue over the coastal waters today through the weekend, including much of early to mid next week. Hazardous marine conditions with rough to very rough seas will continue through Tuesday night. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...JM MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea ####018006864#### FXUS64 KBMX 162334 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 634 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 - There is a marginal to slight risk of severe weather late tonight after midnight into Saturday morning across the northern portions of Central Alabama and then a marginal risk late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening across the southern half of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 A 591dam ridge is centered over the Gulf this afternoon with deep southwesterly flow across Central Alabama bringing warm air into the region. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s today. An upper-level trough will gradually move east from the Upper Plains across the Great Lakes region today through tomorrow with the trough axis extending south into the Mid-South region, but with the pattern notably less amplified over the Southeast due to the opposing interaction between the trough and the subtropical ridge. A nearly east to west oriented front will move south into the area early tomorrow morning supporting convective activity from the Mississippi River into the Tennessee Valley. Models depict rather disorganized convection in somewhat of a broken line or through a few separate rounds which will move into northern portions of the forecast area around midnight tonight, weakening with southern extent through the early morning hours due to the lack of upper- level support. Despite lessening synoptic support, the preceding airmass will be warm and unstable with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates of ~6.5- 7 C/km, and MLCAPE ~2000 J/kg. Stronger winds aloft will also support bulk shear values of 60-70 kts, so these conditions will be more than enough to support a risk of strong to severe storms. Damaging winds will be the primary concern, especially as the activity becomes increasingly outflow driven, chasing the unstable air. But the steep lapse rates could also support instances of large hail up to quarter size as well. It certainly looks like thunderstorm intensity and coverage will wane quickly by mid-morning as the activity moves south of Birmingham. There should be a break in the activity by late morning through early afternoon as the remnant front and any leftover outflow boundaries begin to stall across the southern portions of the area. 12Z CAMs still are not indicating much thunderstorm redevelopment Saturday afternoon, but given the continued warm, unstable airmass and weak surface lift, will continue to message the Marginal severe risk during the afternoon with isolated to scattered thunderstorm coverage expected. Models show best chances for redevelopment will be across our southern half, but it ultimately depends on how the morning convection evolves and where there are any lingering boundaries to help initiate convection. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 328 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 The biggest changes for this forecast package is for the Sat night period. Went above NBM for the evening as Euro influence is looking to deteriorate convection too soon after sunset Sat evening. As we are getting more into hires territory, will keep some pops in the SRN half through 6z with 2nd wave Sat evening along the sagging boundary. A 3rd wave is possible after midnight into Sun for more storm activity with the highest chances here across the N. After that boundary gets pushed NWD with a break in the action over C AL as most of convection should go N of us. Then Tue afternoon into Wed convection returns again ahead of another frontal system. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 A series of shortwaves will move across the region Sunday into Monday, with additional chances for rain or thunderstorms across Central Alabama. The best rain chances will be confined to the northern half of the area, with the highest rain and storm chances coming Sunday afternoon. A trough over the Plains will move eastward into Tuesday, with a surface low moving up the Ohio Valley dragging a cold front through Central Alabama Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will return during this period as a result. Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across most places, which will be some of the warmest days so far this year. Wednesday and Thursday are currently projected to be in the upper 70s to low 80s behind the front. 12 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 Ongoing convection well to central Alabama's north and northwest will the focus of attention for aviation over the next 12 to 18 hours. This activity is expected to expand a bit more in coverage as it tries to make progress toward the south overnight. Conditions for most spots will be VFR through at least 06Z. After that time, some model data suggests some stratus development ahead of the convection arrival. Given the 5 to 10 knot wind, visibility shouldn't be an issue, and the winds should also help to keep ceilings above 1000 ft. The strength of the thunderstorms should be on the decrease when they arrive into the I-20 corridor around 09Z-10Z, and they very well may never make it to MGM. After the morning early morning convection ends, and the stratus burns off and lifts mid to late morning, VFR conditions are once again indicated for the remainder of the forecast. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... The dry trend continues this afternoon. Minimum RH values will be the 40s south to 50s north, with 20ft winds up to 9 to 12 mph. Rain enters the area tonight across the north with rain chances continuing off and on through the weekend. Min RH values should remain above 45 percent in most areas Saturday and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 66 87 64 85 / 70 20 50 70 Anniston 69 87 66 85 / 50 30 40 60 Birmingham 69 87 68 85 / 60 30 40 60 Tuscaloosa 71 88 69 88 / 50 40 50 50 Calera 71 87 69 87 / 40 30 50 50 Auburn 70 87 69 87 / 10 30 30 40 Montgomery 71 90 69 91 / 10 30 30 30 Troy 70 90 69 91 / 10 30 30 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION.../61/ ####018004505#### FXUS64 KBRO 162334 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 634 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 New day, similar story...Upper level ridging will maintain hot, near- record breaking temps into this weekend. Gusty conditions today east of I-69C (gusts up to 35 mph observed at BRO) will diminish this evening. Similarly gusty tomorrow, if not a bit less. These south- southeasterly winds allow for temperatures to remain elevated under upper level ridging. High temperatures tomorrow a touch cooler than today. This will raise heat index values tomorrow higher than todays, with maximum apparent temperatures up to 111 possible. NBM has been overforecasting high temperatures and dew points for this regime. Blended high temps with 1:1 NBM and CONSShort, lowering temps by ~a degree. A majority of the CWA tomorrow is under a Major Risk (level 3 of 4) of heat-related illness. Continue to be mindful of heat safety by avoiding strenuous activity during peak heating, stay hydrated, and LOOK before you LOCK. Children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles. There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at local beaches through Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Oppressively hot temperatures will continue across the region through the period as ridging remains in place over the Gulf through Tuesday. Wednesday a cold front will push into central Texas, possibly getting as far south as the Ranchlands and with more zonal flow aloft and a surface ridge building across the Plains allowing for a slight cool off beginning Wednesday. Heat Advisories will be likely for the first part next week, especially Monday and Tuesday. Heat Risk will generally remain the in Major category (level 3 out of 4), though some pockets of Extreme Level 4 out of 4) are possible through Tuesday. Wednesday much of the area will fall back into a Moderate Heat Risk (level 2 out of 4) and Minor Risk (level 1 out of 4) on Thursday and Friday. While the forecast will remain generally dry, Wednesday evening into the overnight thunderstorms developing off the Sierra Madre could potentials make it to the Rio Grande before dissipating, but chances and confidence remain low at this times. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Southeasterly winds continue to diminish this evening and MVFR ceilings have already formed over KBRO, likely to spread to KHRL over the next several hours. Am anticipating lighter southeasterly winds overnight with cloud decks lowering to IFR at KBRO and KHRL, perhaps by 04-06 Z. MVFR cloud heights are also anticipated at KMFE later this evening with a TEMPO included for the lower chance that ceilings lower to IFR between 07Z and 11Z. Breezy southeasterly winds pick back up in the morning, gradually transitioning skies to VFR by the afternoon with gusts up to 26 knots possible across all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Tonight through Saturday night... Moderate south-southeast winds and moderate seas will persist throughout the short term. Small Craft should Exercise Caution conditions will be present, even borderline favorable Saturday morning, as winds increase slightly during the overnight hours today and tomorrow. Sunday through Thursday...Slightly adverse marine conditons are expected through much of the period with Exercise Caution expected due to elevated winds. There is a potential for periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions, mainly Monday into early Tuesday due to higher winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 92 79 92 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 79 98 79 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 85 79 85 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 90 77 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69-HK LONG TERM....68-McGinnis AVIATION...65-Irish ####018005364#### FXUS64 KLIX 162335 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 635 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A persistence forecast package is in place for today as the region continues to see a deep layer ridge axis be the dominant feature through the weekend. There will be some weakening of the ridge tomorrow as a northern stream trough passes through the Midwest, but a continued strong capping inversion in the mid-levels will prohibit deeper updrafts from developing. At most, a very isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop in southwest Mississippi tomorrow afternoon where the capping inversion is expected to be weakest. Additionally, if an updraft is able to punch through the cap and develop a storm, it could turn strong and produce some gusty winds as drier air aloft and steep low level lapse rates beneath the inversion support a higher than average downdraft potential. Elsewhere, the same conditions observed today can be expected for both Saturday and Sunday. Morning cloud cover that forms beneath that mid-level inversion will mix out to a mostly sunny sky by the late morning and early afternoon hours. Dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 70s, and highs will easily warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with the hottest temperatures inland and away from any coastal influences. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Conditions on Monday will remain the same as those seen this weekend as the deep layer ridge over the Gulf South continues to be the dominant weather feature. Morning clouds and lows in the low to mid 70s will give way to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Monday night will see similar conditions with another round of cloud cover forming after midnight. Tuesday into Wednesday will be a more transitional period of weather as the ridge axis over the area finally begins to shift to the east in response to a deepening longwave trough over the Plains states. This deepening trough will drive a cold front through the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday, and just enough moisture return into the mid-levels should be sufficient to produce some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday night into Wednesday. Any convection should be confined to the front itself and rainfall will generally be short-lived with QPF of less than a quarter of an inch expected. Fortunately, shear profiles are not supportive of any strong to severe thunderstorm activity as the front moves through the area. Temperatures will remain warm ahead of the front with highs climbing back to near 90 degrees on Tuesday. However, a surge of cooler air on the back of a deep layer northwest flow pattern will advect into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will fall back closer to average on Wednesday and should fall to slightly below average in the upper 70s and lower 80s by Thursday. A much drier airmass will also move in and this will push dewpoints from the lower 70s down into the 50s on Thursday. With largely clear skies and lighter winds in place by Thursday night, lows will easily dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s resulting in a refreshing break from the recent heat. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Generally VFR conditions currently across the area will be changing to MVFR as temperatures drop overnight as a stratus deck develops below temperature inversion begining around 05 to 06Z. Stratus build down will continue through the night to IFR levels as low as 800 feet at all locations except MSY/GPT/NEW and even below 800 at MCB. At MCB the stratus build down will merge with light fog conditions resulting in VIS as low as 3SM. By 15 to 16Z temperature inversion will begin to mix out giving improving conditions as the stratus deck breaks up and lifts. /Schlotz/ && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A broad surface high pressure system centered over the eastern Gulf will keep a persistent onshore flow regime in place through Tuesday. Winds will range from 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the period. On Wednesday, a cold front will push through the coastal waters. Winds will turn more westerly and then northwesterly through the day and some scattered thunderstorm activity will accompany the frontal passage. These thunderstorms could produce some locally gusty winds as they move through. Other than that thunderstorm threat on Wednesday, a very benign stretch of weather is anticipated for the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 73 92 70 91 / 0 10 10 0 BTR 75 92 73 91 / 0 10 0 0 ASD 74 91 73 89 / 0 10 0 0 MSY 75 90 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 75 86 75 85 / 0 10 0 0 PQL 73 86 72 85 / 0 10 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PG LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...DS MARINE...PG