####018005311#### FXUS61 KBUF 162335 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 735 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A broad closed low over the Upper Midwest will gradually cross the Great Lakes through the weekend, resulting in several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms through at least Saturday night. Much cooler and generally drier weather behind this system expected to last through the first half of next week before becoming unsettled again by later Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... The remnants of the earlier passing front will shift north across the area tonight as a weak warm front, and as a weak sfc low tracks northeast across the Ohio Valley and into Ontario. This will increase the potential for showers and some thunderstorms tonight into Saturday morning. There will be a break for a few hours before the main cold front associated with the large occluded system in the Midwest tracks through the area. With this frontal boundary, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of the front from mid-morning through mid-afternoon from west to east. Shear profiles look a little stronger along with some instability ahead of the front. This will increase the chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms, especially for the eastern half of the forecast area. Temperatures on Saturday warm to the upper 60s to mid 70s ahead of the cold front and quickly drop by around 10 degrees within a few hours behind the frontal passage. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Cooler with chances for showers Sunday, especially east of Lake Ontario. Further west, spotty showers and drizzle Sunday morning then drier weather will eventually take over as the closed low exits off to our east. That said...given some lingering low-level moisture in concert with a fairly chilly airmass overhead it's likely we won't see much clearing until late in the day. It will also be breezy with winds gusting up to 30 mph at times. Highs on Sunday will be in the 50s to low 60s. Low pressure continues to pull away Sunday night with any lingering showers ending across the region. We should see skies begin to clear from west to east and winds will also to lessen. Lows in the 40s, with a few isolated spots dipping back into the 30s east of Lake Ontario. Dry quiet weather expected Monday as high pressure wedges in across the Lower Lakes. Highs peaking in the 50s to low 60s. Clear skies anticipated Monday night and chilly with light winds overnight. Will need to monitor the potential for FROST. Lows will be found in the 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Fair dry weather Tuesday as the narrow ridge of high pressure remains over the Lower Lakes. Unsettled weather returns Wednesday and Thursday with multiple shortwaves collecting to form another closed low over the Great Lakes, with cool showery weather through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR flight conditions through this evening. Periods of MVFR and brief IFR CIGs will be possible as showers with a few thunderstorms track across the area from southwest to northeast, mainly after midnight. The best chance for brief IFR conditions will occur within showers over the higher terrain. Saturday, earlier showers should clear northeast of the North Country during the first few hour of daylight, with mainly VFR conditions expected after earlier showers end. Another area of showers and thunderstorms will develop over WNY and track east as a cold front approaches during the mid-morning hours (~14Z). Locally moderate to heavy downpours will be possible as the showers and thunderstorms move through the forecast area from mid-morning through mid-afternoon, especially for the eastern portions of the area where slightly later timing will allow for some better daytime heating and instability. MVFR CIGs and VSBY can be expected within the showers and behind the front as low level moisture persists. Brief reductions to IFR for CIGs and VSBY may be possible within the heavier showers/storms. There may be gusty winds with some of the thunderstorms that develop. Outlook... Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers east of KROC. Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...some restrictions possible with showers in the area. && .MARINE... A pair of frontal boundaries will bring the risk for thunderstorms tonight, with a drying trend first across Lake Erie late Saturday morning, with Lake Ontario to follow Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Southwest winds on both lakes are expected to increase by Saturday afternoon with SCA conditions likely on both lakes through at least a portion of Sunday, with the east end of Lake Ontario possibly lasting into Sunday night. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PP/TMA NEAR TERM...SW/TMA SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR/Thomas AVIATION...SW/TMA MARINE...PP/TMA ####018005241#### FXUS64 KCRP 162335 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 635 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts - Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday - Borderline elevated fire weather conditions over Rio Grande Plains Not much to talk about in the short term with a mid-level high pressure centered over the western Gulf and eastern Mexico. A mid- level shortwave looks to move across TX Saturday accompanied by a surface frontal boundary to our north and an approaching dryline to our west, thereby increasing rain chances particularly NW of our region. Confidence that either the sw or boundaries will make it to South Texas is low, with most deterministic models leaning towards a dry/settled forecast and the GFS being a slightly more aggressive solution. Have decided to stick with the NBM for PoPs as there's a very low <10% chance for showers/thunderstorms over northwestern counties and near zero probabilities further east. Ridging combined with southwesterly flow aloft will help to contribute to warmer temperatures. The latest run of the HREF Grand Ensemble still shows a low to medium (20-40%) chance of heat index values 110 or greater this afternoon over portions of the western Brush Country (Cotulla) and southern Coastal Plains (Kingsville/Alice). However, with observations compared to forecasted temperatures so far today being within a degree or two for the most part have opted to forego any heat-related products and instead will continue to monitor conditions. surface temperatures today are forecast to max out in the low 90s to around 105 across the region will be slightly cooler tomorrow afternoon. Accompanied by overnight lows in the mid-70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Key Messages: - Summer-like temperatures continue through Tuesday, with a Heat Risk approaching the Major/Extreme Categories across the Brush Country. - A frontal passage on Tuesday will reduce the heat risk. Upper ridge influence continues to bring summer-like temperatures across South Texas Tuesday. Combined with Gulf-rich moisture, heat indices have a high-likelihood of remaining above 105F across much of South Texas. Across the western Brush Country and along the Rio Grande, a dry line passage will lower minimum relative humidity ranges to 10-20% range, resulting in an elevated fire risk Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, an upper level trough over the Intermountain West will begin lifting as it moves into the Central Plains. At the surface, this translates to a frontal passage throughout Central and South Texas, switching winds from southerly to N/NE'ly. Ensemble models continue to place the southern extent of >20% PoPs from Central Texas, and to the north, Tuesday through Wednesday. The next best chance for rain is actually located more along a lee trough forming along the Sierra Madre Oriental. As of this forecast, this still keeps most of South Texas under 15% PoPs, so confidence for Wednesday-Friday rainfall is low. Post front Wednesday still brings highs at or above 100F across the Rio Grande Plains/Brush Country through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, highs will remains in the 90s except along the immediate coastline. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Current VFR conditions are forecast to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR levels by early Saturday morning due to low ceilings and patchy fog development. Poor aviation conditions will then persist through the mid to late morning hours, before lifting back to VFR in the afternoon. Winds will remain breezy for a couple more hours this evening, before becoming light overnight. Breezy conditions will return to the forecast by Saturday afternoon with gusts to 20-25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Moderate to fresh onshore flow with 4-5 ft seas will persist through Monday morning, with bays and nearshore waters having strong (BF 5) wind gusts Monday afternoon along with seas increasing to 5-6 ft. Tuesday, winds will become more gentle longshore flow from the northeast through Thursday with seas decreasing through Friday down to 3-4 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 91 78 90 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 79 105 79 104 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 76 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 78 88 79 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 79 105 78 104 / 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 79 86 79 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....NP/92 AVIATION...ANM/88 ####018010802#### FXUS65 KABQ 162336 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 536 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 536 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 - Strong winds and dry conditions will lead to critical fire weather this weekend and early next week. Winds will be strongest on Sunday and Monday when gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common, leading to an increased risk of rapid fire spread. - Scattered rain and mountain snow showers will develop over northwestern to north central New Mexico Sunday and Monday with a few thunderstorms also accompanying in the afternoon and early evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Pleasant weather continues this afternoon across northern and central NM with fairly standard afternoon spring breezes persisting into the early evening hours. An upcoming deepening troughing pattern over the western CONUS will begin to take shape tonight into Saturday morning. This will act to eject an opening shortwave trough over NM through the day Saturday. This will increase southwesterly winds over the forecast area Saturday afternoon. Unfortunately this weakening weather system will have near zero precipitation associated with it. Numerical model guidance however is picking up on sufficient mid-level moisture being realized as a few isolated virga showers crossing over south-central and southeastern portions of the forecast area late Saturday morning and afternoon. Forecast soundings from Socorro to Roswell display steep inverted-V signatures, indicative of a good chance these virga showers producing stray and erratic strong wind gusts from Socorro through at least Lincoln County and potentially as far east as De Baca and Chaves County. Otherwise, areas further north will see increased winds and increasing high cirrus cloud coverage. Winds diminish Saturday evening and night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 A sharp upper level trough crossing UT and AZ early Sunday will shift northeastward on Sunday afternoon, driving the upper level jet squarely over NM. Despite cold air advection occurring through the day, strong mixing is still expected. H7 winds of 25 to 35 kt should easily mix to the surface. Additionally, an associated surface low will deepen to near 990mb across eastern CO which will increase the surface pressure gradient across NM. All-in-all, it should be a windy day nearly areawide, though the strongest winds are expected along and east of the Central Mountain Chain where west to southwest gusts up to 45 mph will be common. Localized areas of blowing dust may occur in dust-prone areas, including Roswell. After the initial trough departs late Sunday, another upper low will slide southward across Utah Sunday night, then eastward along the NM/CO border on Monday as it gradually fills. The upper level jet should move over the southern half of NM, thus the strongest winds on Monday should be near and south of I-40. Elsewhere, showers and a few thunderstorms will develop across northern NM. Wetting precipitation will be spotty, but the showers and thunderstorms will help drive a potent Pacific front through the area. Expect gusty winds along and behind the front as it races from northwest to southeast, as well as with any convective activity. High temperatures on Monday will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal across western NM and up to 10 degrees below normal across eastern NM. The upper low will exit the area Monday night, then quieter conditions are expected for the mid week period. The backdoor segment of the front will arrive Monday night and early Tuesday. It should be relatively weak, but will introduce a slight uptick in low level moisture across eastern NM. A stronger push may come Tuesday night, but any moisture intrusion should stay east of the Central Mountain Chain. Upper level flow will be weakening through the period and H5 heights will be rising. Thus, not much wind through the mid week period, and temperatures will climb each day Tuesday through Thursday. All areas should be near to above normal again by Thursday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Southwest to west breezes across eastern NM taper off around sunset with light and terrain dominated winds overnight. A blanket of high clouds move across southern and eastern areas late this evening into tomorrow morning ahead of a weakening Pacific low moving across the U.S. and Mexico border. These high clouds and the disturbance exits east mid to late morning with southwest winds ramping up areawide in its wake. The strongest winds with gusts of 30 to 35 kts will exist across south central and eastern TAF sites during the afternoon hours. Gusts of 20 to 30 kts will be common everywhere else. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RAMPING UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... Southwesterly winds begin to pick up in strength beginning Saturday afternoon while a weakening weather system crosses the state through the day. A few virga showers producing stray and erratic strong gusts across portions of Socorro and Lincoln Counties is on tap tomorrow as well. This, combined with the high confidence for single- digit humidity lasting 6 to 12 hours in the middle Rio Grande Valley along with forecast southwest winds increasing to 20-25 mph sustained will produce several hours of critical fire weather conditions through those areas Saturday afternoon. Critical fire weather conditons continue Sunday as southwesterly winds strengthen further, expanding over western and central portions of the forecast area. Monday sees one more round of critical fire weather conditions, being pushed over southern and eastern portions of NM while cooler and wetter weather advance into northwestern and northern portions of the state. The fire weather threat abates Tuesday as a cold front pushes through eastern NM and temperatures trend down. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 42 79 49 69 / 0 0 0 40 Dulce........................... 30 74 38 64 / 0 0 0 40 Cuba............................ 40 74 43 67 / 0 0 0 10 Gallup.......................... 33 75 40 68 / 0 0 0 10 El Morro........................ 39 72 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 77 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 40 73 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 48 76 45 74 / 0 5 0 0 Datil........................... 42 72 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 36 78 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 38 83 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 34 69 35 58 / 0 0 0 30 Los Alamos...................... 48 73 46 67 / 0 0 0 10 Pecos........................... 44 73 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 40 71 40 64 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 35 61 35 55 / 0 5 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 30 68 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 35 74 38 68 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 39 73 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 43 81 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 47 74 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 43 78 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 81 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 82 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 84 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 83 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 42 84 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 84 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 41 83 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 49 84 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 42 83 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 51 79 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 83 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 52 86 49 85 / 0 5 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 75 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 48 77 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 44 77 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 78 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 43 73 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 46 76 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 45 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 55 78 51 78 / 0 5 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 73 49 72 / 0 5 0 0 Capulin......................... 41 73 42 72 / 0 5 0 0 Raton........................... 40 78 41 77 / 0 5 0 0 Springer........................ 39 78 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 42 76 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 81 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 45 78 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 48 86 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 49 81 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 56 88 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 53 89 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 52 86 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 61 92 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 56 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 54 83 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ106-124. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NMZ106-109-124-125. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...71 ####018005678#### FXUS63 KLSX 162337 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 637 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue until storms exit between 6 and 7 PM this evening. - After a brief period of dry weather tonight - Saturday evening, the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms returns Saturday night into next week, with the highest chances on Monday night and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Saturday Night) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Isolated to widely scattered supercells have developed fairly rapidly over the past couple of hours in our area along a fast- moving cold front. This boundary is located just west of a KVIH>>KUIN axis and should clear the southeastern CWA by or just before 2300 UTC. Large hail, potentially very large (2.75+") still looks like the main threat given very steep midlevel lapse rates and associated hail CAPE. The tornadic potential increases with southerly extent, with the latest SPC mesoanalysis showing 0-1km SRH around 150-175 m^2/sec^2. LCL values are also a bit lower down in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois compared to east- central Missouri and south-central Illinois. However, a strong RFD surge very recently just helped spin up a tornado further north, so the threat continues across the entire tornado watch. Much cooler and drier air will filter into the area behind this cold front. Therefore, look for dry weather the remainder of tonight into Saturday evening along with temperatures much closer to seasonal normals. Gosselin && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Next Friday) Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 (Saturday Night - Tuesday Night) Today's cold front is expected to stall out across the mid south and then begin to move back northward as a warm front late this weekend into early next week. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly along/north of this retreating boundary through early next week. There still appears to be 2 MCSs that may impact the region, one Sunday night/Monday morning and another Monday night/Tuesday morning. The latter should be further north than its predecessor, but how far north is a question mark. Sometimes antecedent convection really hampers the poleward progress of retreating warm fronts. There is some modest lesside cyclogenesis in the central Plains, which would argue for continued northward movement, but again, this could be offset by the aforementioned convection. The main focus through Tuesday morning likely will be on heavy rain potential and flash flooding. Convection through that time likely is to be focused along/north of the boundary and elevated in nature (hail could be a threat though). In terms of rainfall potential, the probabilities have trickled up about 10% for 2+" of total rainfall through Tuesday night. Chances are now in the 50-70% range across the bi-state area. For at least 4", chances are in the 10-15% range, still quite low but a bit higher than yesterday by about 5% on average. The overall concern for any significant flash flood threat or river flood threat is still fairly low, but we will have to keep an eye on this period for hydrologic impacts. As talked about yesterday, a lot of the area is now running a slight deficit in the rainfall department since May 1st. Parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois have fairly widespread abnormal dryness/moderate drought conditions and could really use 2-3+" of rain. At least a conditional severe threat is still on the table for Tuesday ahead of the midlevel synoptic trough and associated cold frontal passage. Major caveats continue including a lot of spread with the track/strength/timing of the trough itself and on instability. The amount of instability remains a big question mark due to antecedent convection primarily. Temperatures during this time period still are tricky, especially daytime highs. The track of each nocturnal MCS will have ramifications on daytime highs both Monday and Tuesday. Not surprisingly, the inter-quartile range from the NBM each of these days is large, mainly on the order of 8-12 degrees in most locations. (Wednesday - Next Friday) The mid/late week period continues to look increasingly chilly for late May standards as an anomalous mid/upper level low slowly slides across the Great Lakes. Temperature anomalies at 850 hPa peak out at around 6 to 8C below normal Wednesday night across the area. While those type of values wouldn't be noteworthy in the middle of winter, it is for late May (closer to 2 sigma below normal). The coolest day is likely to be on Wednesday, as highs in the 60s are forecast. If clouds and/or rain continues across portions of the area, cannot rule out some locations staying in the 50s. Lows late week are dependent on the timing of the surface ridge and sky cover, but widespread lows in the 40s are certainly on the table. Gosselin && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening) Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The cold front is passed and drier and cooler weather will move into the area. Gusty westerly winds will subside by late evening, before picking back up again Saturday morning. Gosselin && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX ####018007801#### FXUS61 KRLX 162337 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 737 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rounds of strong to severe storms expected today through tonight. Cold front crosses Saturday. Quieter to finish the weekend, then unsettled pattern returns next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 351 PM Friday... Elected to let the watch go and cancelled it as all the thunderstorm activity is now east of the area. Gusty winds can still be a factor as well as some stratiform rain until they move out as well. As of 310 PM Friday... The severe thunderstorm watch has been allowed to be canceled in our KY counties, as well as Wayne and Lincoln in WV. The strongest convection is currently across the southern mountains and coalfields and it has moved out of these counties. Still anticipating another round of severe weather later this evening with a line of storms that will form. As of 214 PM Friday... Put up a wind advisory across the higher elevations of Randolph and Pocahontas from 10 AM Saturday until 2 AM Sunday. Models are showing fairly strong post-frontal flow that will move in early Saturday morning. Gusts between 45 and 50 MPH are possible across the higher elevation zones. As of 1235 PM Friday... Currently have some thunderstorms to our southwest in eastern KY that are moving into the severe storm/flash flood watch area. There is a fairly sturdy (-50 to -75 CINH) mixed-layer cap that has formed over the lowlands which is showing some signs of disrupting these storms as they surge deeper into our forecast area. Damaging winds, hail, and the chance for an isolated tornado are the hazards of concern. Despite the cap, instability and lapse rates are on the stronger side with SBCAPE between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg. Effective shear is very strong with values between 50-65 kts, which will lead to some rotating storms this afternoon. Convective models are keeping the trend of training these storms over the southern coalfields/mountains, so flash flooding concerns are elevated through the afternoon, hence the flash flood watch. 1-hr FFG is around an inch to an inch and a half in spots with 3-hr FFG only slightly higher. HREF/HRRR are still in agreement with bringing in a well developed, stronger line of storms that will move in from the west between 7 PM and 9 PM, subsequently moving across the forecast area west to east. The greatest wind threat will reside in this system where prob wind statistics show 60 - 70 MPH gusts could be possible if this line if it manifests as the CAMs are suggesting. Further flash flood concerns will linger into the night with models showing the southern, upshear portion of the line moving over the counties currently outlooked with the flash flood watch, which will be receiving repeated rounds of heavy rainfall this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Friday... Outside of a few isolated showers early Saturday night, dry weather is expected through the short term period as weak upper level ridging builds into the region. Gusty winds early Saturday night across the lowlands will quickly diminish, while persisting across the highest terrain into the day on Sunday (generally 30-40 mph). Sunday will feature a fair amount of sunshine with high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s across the lowlands, with 60s in the mountains. Lows Saturday and Sunday night will generally be in the 50s across the lowlands, with mid 40s to low 50s in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Friday... A return of unsettled weather is expected for the new work week courtesy of a slow-moving disturbance progged to impact the area. The chance for ISO/SCT showers/storms returns on Monday and Monday night as an associated warm front lifts north towards the area, with the best chance for rain being the south/central portions of the CWA. More widespread showers/storms return Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday as low pressure slowly approaches/crosses the region, with a general drying trend expected late Thursday into Friday. Given recent rainfall, some hydro concerns are certainly possible as the week goes on. Temperatures are progged to be near normal or slightly below throughout the period, with the chillest day expected to be Thursday as an upper trough builds into the region. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 730 PM Friday... VFR conditions turn to MVFR with temporary conditions of IFR under heavy thunderstorm showers as a broken line of storms heads our way tonight. For the western sites, anywhere from 3Z to 6Z there will be active weather with possible strong to severe thunderstorms traveling very fast through those site areas. They will likely see very strong gusts along the outflow boundaries and in the vicinity where storms pass by. Heavy downpours will drop VIS down to IFR at times. Once the activity is through those sites winds will stay elevated with gusts near 30kts along with VFR conditions behind the line. The eastern sites will be next to get hit with strong to severe wind gusts along with IFR VIS under heavy thunderstorm showers from around 4Z to 9Z with CKB/EKN possibly a few hours later. Once that activity passes by VIS/CIGs will lift back to VFR, however windy conditons will continue through the period with gust up to 30kts. Worst case, CIG heights will hover around MVFR and VIS could get down to below IFR if a shower is heavy enough. Wind shear will not be a factor since surface flow will be elevated, however if the surface flow weakens temporarily then wind shear will become a factor and this goes for most sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H L H M M H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H L H H L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by late Tuesday and continue at times into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>007-013>015- 024>026-033-034-515>518. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ523-526. OH...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ086-087. KY...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GW/LTC NEAR TERM...JZ/LTC SHORT TERM...GW LONG TERM...GW AVIATION...JZ ####018005626#### FXUS63 KGLD 162338 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 538 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southerly winds may develop behind the dryline over portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas Sunday afternoon, mainly along and south of Interstate 70. - Scattered thunderstorms may develop over portions of the Tri- State area late Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly along and north of Interstate 70. Low confidence in thunderstorm development and coverage in the NWS Goodland county warning area. Conditional potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 A vertically stacked low (centered over Minnesota at 20Z this afternoon) will progress east across the Great Lakes tonight and Saturday. In the wake of this feature, an upper level ridge will amplify over the Central-Northern Plains (Sat-Sat night). Meanwhile, an upper level trough will Today-Tonight: Ongoing breezy to strong WNW-NW winds (McCook measured a 51 mph gust at 1740 UTC).. associated with a tight MSLP-850 mb height gradient on the southern and southwestern fringe of the vertically stacked low.. will quickly diminish at/around sunset this evening as the low progresses east toward the Great Lakes.. the MSLP-850 mb height gradient slackens.. insolation wanes and vertical mixing abruptly decreases. Winds will become light and variable overnight.. as modest surface high pressure over the Dakotas extends southward into the Tri- State area. Sat-Sat night: Expect dry conditions.. as an upper level ridge amplifies over the Central-Northern Plains. Modest ESE-SE low- level return flow will gradually become established Sat aft- eve.. as surface high pressure extending into the region from the north gradually shifts eastward. Virtually all guidance indicates that a strong cap will be in place over the region.. suggesting little, if any, potential for convective development. Convection allowing guidance suggests that meager high-based updrafts will be confined to topographically/geographically favored areas (higher elevations of the Palmer Divide) where convective inhibition will be weaker (though, so will instability). While ~15 knot SSW steering flow may usher updrafts toward portions of Kit Carson and Yuma Counties in CO.. increasingly subsident/capped environmental conditions to the east will tend to weaken/suppress development (with eastern extent). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 Sun-Sun night: An upper level trough digging SSE ashore the Pacific Coast Sat-Sat night will broaden and stall in vicinity of the 4-Corners on Sun. Cyclonic shear vorticity on the eastern periphery of the trough (over the central Rockies) will foster the development of a modest lee cyclone over eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas during the day. Southerly flow on the eastern periphery of the upper trough (in the lee of the central-southern Rockies) and deep vertical mixing will assist the northward advancement of a pronounced dryline.. to the I-70 corridor (possibly as far north as Hwy 36).. and that strong southerly winds may develop behind the dryline Sun afternoon. While thermodynamic/environmental conditions are favorable for severe weather (especially with southern and eastern extent over central-eastern KS, where rich low-level moisture will be present).. these areas will also be further removed from upper forcing (and in closer vicinity to the central CONUS ridge).. and significant uncertainty exists with regard to whether or not (and where) low-level forcing will be sufficient to overcome convection inhibition. At this time, it is uncertain whether or not convection will develop in the NWS Goodland CWA. Overall, convection appears more likely to develop in northeast CO and southwest NE (in closer proximity to upper forcing).. where thermodynamic/environmental conditions are less favorable for.. albeit still supportive-of.. severe weather. Mon-Tue: Long range guidance suggests that the broad upper trough / upper level low will progress east across the Central Plains in this period. Expect above average chances for precipitation and near-average to below-average temperatures. Wed: Subsidence in the wake of the broad upper low departing the region will foster dry conditions and near-average temperatures. Thu-Fri: Long range guidance suggests that a modest unidirectional flow pattern will prevail over the Central Plains late next week.. as an upper level ridge develops over the Desert Southwest. Expect dry conditions and a warming trend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 525 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions remain forecasted for each terminal for this TAF period. Winds are forecast to ease up around 01-02Z as the nocturnal inversion sets in and we lose the response from the low pressure to the north. Winds are also forecast to shift and become more easterly through the night and remain through the day Saturday as they become somewhat breezy again around 20-25 knots. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Trigg ####018009555#### FXUS64 KFWD 162338 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 638 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected to continue through the rest of the evening roughly along and east of I-35. Some thunderstorms could become severe with primarily a large hail threat. - Scattered storms will be possible each afternoon and evening Saturday through Monday. A few storms may be severe (5-15% chance). - A cold front on Tuesday will knock temperatures back down to near or slightly below normal for the middle of next work week, with afternoon highs dropping into the upper 70s/low 80s. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Thunderstorms that have developed across portions of North and Central Texas late this afternoon and into the early evening will continue to push south and east, the exception being any left splits that continue to persist. The main threat continues to be large hail with isolated damaging wind gusts as well. Our special 19z sounding reveals substantial instability and steep lapse rates, with straight hodographs supportive of splitting supercells. These storms will have an increased risk for large hail, with right movers having a low but non-zero threat for tornadoes given a weakened cap and the availability of surface- based parcels. This threat is low due to poor low-level shear, but is worth watching either way. Activity will gradually wind down with a weakening trend starting around 10-11 PM before dissipating. Another, slightly more widespread round of severe weather can be expected tomorrow across all of North and Central Texas. The main threats once again will be large to very large hail and damaging winds, depending on storm mode evolution. There is once again a low but non-zero threat for tornadoes. The best timing for the activity tomorrow will be anywhere between 1 PM to 8 PM. For more details, please see the previous discussion down below this one. Reeves Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday Night/ Storm chances will gradually wane after sunset as storms continue moving to the east/southeast this evening. With the parent system responsible for the stalled boundary well north of our region, little to no shift is expected to the positioning of this front. Tonight, expect conditions to remain humid with temperatures struggling to dip below 70 degrees for a large part of the region. The aforementioned stalled boundary will once again become the focus of attention tomorrow. The main difference will be the added source of lift as a short-wave moves overhead late in the morning to early afternoon hours. Similar to today, forecast thermodynamic profiles once again drive instability above 4500 J/kg within a strongly sheared effective inflow layer. The stalled boundary will continue to be the surface feature for thunderstorms to initiate. With the added forcing for ascent due to the shortwave, storm mode will initially be supercellular in nature. With upscale growth, supercells will become clusters of storms with a migration from large hail to damaging winds as the main threats. There will be slightly more low-level shear tomorrow, however, the overall tornado potential will continue to remain low. Afternoon thunderstorms will diminish closer to midnight as daytime heating gradually wanes. Unfortunately, the boundary will move very little and remain draped from northeast to southwest across North Texas. This will set the stage for additional thunderstorm development this weekend...additional details listed below. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025/ Update: The active weather will continue as we move into a new week. Additional rounds of thunderstorms can be expected through Tuesday before dry weather settles across the region. For details regarding next week's forecast, see the discussion below. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Sunday through Thursday/ ...Sunday through Monday Night... On Sunday, the dryline will retreat further west, extending from the Texas Hill Country through western Oklahoma. Aloft, a strong upper-level disturbance will pivot from the Great Basin into the Rockies. The primary disturbance, however, won't eject east of the Rockies until Monday. As such, forcing for ascent will be weak Sunday evening, resulting in very isolated storm coverage along the dryline. Storms should mostly remain west of the I-35/35W corridor and near the Red River should they develop. Any storm Sunday evening will have the potential to be severe, with deep layer shear supportive of organized updrafts and 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE. This will bring the potential for large hail and damaging winds with any mature thunderstorm. Though non-zero, the tornado threat will be low owing to weak low-level shear. Storms should quickly dissipate after sunset due to continued weak forcing and the redevelopment of a strong capping inversion. On Monday, the primary upper-level vort max is expected to eject out into the central Great Plains. This will induce surface cyclogenesis somewhere in eastern Colorado or western Kansas. As the low develops and tracks east, a cold front will approach the area from the north, with a dryline draped from central Oklahoma down the I-35 corridor into central Texas. East of the dryline, a very warm and moist airmass will still be in place, with SBCAPE on the order of 2500-3500 J/kg. PVA with the approach of the main disturbance aloft will bring sufficient forcing for ascent to develop scattered thunderstorms along the dryline by the late afternoon/early evening hours. Exact storm coverage remains uncertain at this time, but should be more widespread than any convection on Sunday. As storms mature and move off the dryline, abundant SBCAPE, strong deep layer shear, and 0-1km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 will be favorable for all modes of severe weather, particularly for any discrete storms that can persist into the early overnight hours with the development of the low-level jet. Exact timing and coverage remain uncertain at this point, as this will be determined by the progression of the upper-level disturbance and the strength of the capping inversion during the daytime hours. ...Tuesday through Thursday... By Tuesday, a cold front will move through the region. Isolated thunderstorms along the front during the morning hours will become more widespread as the day progresses. At this time, it looks like the front should push east of our area before peak heating and the greatest potential for storms gets underway. Regardless, there will be enough deep layer shear and instability in place to support organized convection, so will have to continue monitoring for the potential of additional strong to severe thunderstorms during the early afternoon hours. Behind the front and through the middle of next week, temperatures will return to near or slightly below normal. Highs should be in the upper 70s and low 80s, with nighttime lows dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s. High pressure will dominate behind the front, supportive of dry weather Tuesday evening through Thursday. Darrah && .AVIATION... /NEW/ Concerns...High potential for VCTS/TSRA, MVFR/IFR ceilings. Any storms that continue to develop this evening will gradually move to the south and east through sunset tonight with impacts continuing for much of the airspace through midnight tonight. Large hail and gusty winds will be possible, with a low chance for brief north flow depending on how far south and east the boundary manages to move. Southerly flow will resume overnight through tomorrow morning. Up next will be lowering ceilings through the morning, with low end MVFR favored. There is a low chance for IFR ceilings as well, scattering out into the mid to late morning. There is a bit of uncertainty in exact timing and placement for convection tomorrow afternoon, and this can be further refined in subsequent TAF issuances overnight. Reeves && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested along and east of I-35 this evening. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 90 72 88 72 / 30 50 20 20 20 Waco 74 92 71 92 72 / 50 40 20 10 10 Paris 66 87 69 85 69 / 30 50 40 20 20 Denton 67 91 69 87 69 / 10 40 20 30 20 McKinney 68 90 70 85 71 / 20 50 30 20 20 Dallas 71 92 72 88 72 / 40 50 20 20 20 Terrell 70 88 71 87 72 / 70 50 30 20 10 Corsicana 73 91 73 91 74 / 70 40 20 10 5 Temple 74 94 71 93 74 / 30 30 20 10 5 Mineral Wells 68 93 69 91 70 / 5 40 20 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Severe Thunderstorm Watch until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ094- 095-103>107-117>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ ####018005582#### FXUS63 KILX 162339 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL Issued by National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 639 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 4 of 5 (moderate) risk for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening south of roughly I-70, and a level 3 (enhanced) risk further northwest to roughly I-55. Possible hazards include intense straight-line winds, large hail, and tornadoes. - Southwest winds gusting 35-50 mph this afternoon will combine with relative humidity values below 30% north of I-72 to result in increased fire danger. - Those strong winds will also result in a risk for localized blowing dust, which could briefly diminish visibility for motorists in rural areas. That risk will be highest north of I-70 and east of roughly the IL River. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 A mid level disturbance lifting northeast out of the central Plains will bring an opportunity for severe thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. In its wake, conditions turn dry and cooler for the upcoming weekend. Early next work week, thunderstorm chances will return with the approach of another trough lifting out of the Great Plains. ***** SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING ***** At 2pm, surface temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s across central IL, with dewpoints ranging from the low to mid 60s south of roughly I-70 to low 40s west of the IL River. The more abundant moisture continues to surge north in advance of a mid-upper level disturbance lifting towards the region from the Central Plains, though this will eventually be limited by ongoing upstream convection across east-central MO. As these storms build northeast along the dryline and move into central IL, they will pose a risk for all severe hazards, including large-significant hail, destructive downburst winds; meanwhile, the risk for tornadoes will be higher in southeast and east-central IL where low level moisture is higher and hence LCL heights are lower. While convective mode is depicted in virtually every CAM as discrete to start, there may be a tendency towards upscale growth into a MCS capable of widespread damaging winds. Fortunately, these storms will be moving quickly, so the threat will be rapidly diminishing from west to east and we'll update the watch accordingly. By 9pm (if not sooner), the storms should be out of here. ***** GUSTY WINDS TODAY **** South-southwest winds will continue to gust 30 to 40 mph today, with some potential for sporadic gusts up to 50 mph especially across our western counties where winds aloft will be increasing with the approaching upper level trough. HRRR/RAP Bufkit soundings suggest top of channel winds could exceed 50 kt at times mainly west of the IL River, but we suspect a slight dry bias may be resulting in erroneously high values; nonetheless, we'll be monitoring surface observations in case we need to expand the Wind Advisory to include more counties. In addition, these strong winds could result in some localized blowing dust which could degrade visibility for motorists, especially considering we already had a few reports of such blowing dust yesterday and winds are running slightly stronger today. These strong winds, combined with dry low levels (RH values < 30%) across our north/northwest counties, are resulting in increased fire weather danger which will continue through the evening. See the fire weather section below for more information on that. ***** DRY AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND ***** The upper trough will shift east and surface high pressure build into the region in its wake tomorrow/night, giving us a dry and seasonably cool weekend with daily highs in the low to mid 70s. Tomorrow may actually feel a bit chilly given northwest winds gusting to around 30 mph. The next opportunity for precipitation will arrive Sunday night/Monday into Tuesday of next week as another system lifts out of the Central Plains. A lot remains unclear about that system, including its arrival time and warmth/moisture return ahead of it, which suggests vast uncertainty surrounding both precipitation amounts and any severe weather potential. However, a strong push of cool advection appears increasingly likely towards the middle of next work week; blended guidance from NBM brings highs into only the low to mid 60s by Wednesday. Bumgardner && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Line of strong to severe storms east of I-55 along the I-70 corridor will continue to move east, exiting the forecast area by 1z. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions are expected the period, with some morning low VFR to MVFR stratus. Strengthening LLJ may lead to some LLWS this evening into tonight, especially for the I-55 and I-72 corridors, so have added mention to KBMI/KSPI/KDEC. Westerly winds remain strong to breezy through the forecast period, with gusts 20 to 30 knots. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-037- 038. Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ038- 042>046-051>057-061. High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ045-046- 055-057. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...SG