####018004513#### FXUS64 KOUN 151830 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 130 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - Severe weather is expected Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. - Above normal temperatures will continue well into next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 With a cooler air mass in place and thick cirrus overspreading the region, temperatures are running much cooler than yesterday (though still above average). Showers and thunderstorms will continue through about mid afternoon over southeast Oklahoma. Clouds will gradually clear out from the northwest. Quiet night tonight with lows in the 50s (NW OK) to mid 60s (SE OK). Day && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Friday looks fairly similar to Thursday as another front moves through the region. Most of the area will be under clear skies, allowing temperatures to get a bit warmer (highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s). There is a low chance for storms to develop along this front again in southeast Oklahoma, though most of the CAMs keep this later in the day and southeast of our forecast area. On the off chance the front is slower and/or storms fire off earlier, the atmosphere would support strong to severe storms in the southeast corner of our forecast area. The severe risk ramps up on Saturday as a shortwave is forecast to move across the region and trigger thunderstorms along and east of a dryline. We'll also have a retreating warm front and potential outflow from previous overnight convection as players in this setup. Instability and deep layer shear will be ample to support severe hazards, including a low risk for brief tornadoes. Initiation is expected late afternoon / evening. Day && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Wednesday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Additional rounds of severe weather will continue to be possible late in the weekend through the early portions of next week as a longwave mid-level wave meanders to the west, and the subtropical jet impinges on the southern Plains. On Sunday, moisture advection will help mid to upper 60s dewpoints make it to the KS/OK border by the early afternoon. A subtropical jet maxima will overspread the southern Plains Sunday afternoon and evening, which may provide the necessary lift for severe thunderstorm development along a dryline. The parameter space ahead of the dryline will support severe storms capable of all hazards. The main forcing is expected to move across the southern Plains Monday into Tuesday. Severe storms are possible again Monday into Tuesday morning as the kinematics and thermodynamics will be in place to support all hazards. With stronger forcing for ascent owing to the approaching wave, thunderstorm development appears likely at this time. There are some model solutions that suggest that additional forcing moves across the area by Tuesday afternoon, which could extend severe weather chances into Tuesday afternoon. Will need to monitor these trends as we get into the weekend. Bunker/Day && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Off-and-on thunderstorms continue early this afternoon across the southeast portion of the forecast area (roughly southeast of a line from Ardmore to McAlester). No severe weather is expected, but brief ceiling/visibility reductions are possible. Winds will shift from northwesterly to southerly tonight, then back to northwesterly tomorrow morning. Apart from some potential prevailing MVFR stratus in southeast Oklahoma in the morning, VFR conditions will continue. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 59 87 60 85 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 55 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 61 91 63 91 / 0 0 0 30 Gage OK 53 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 55 85 54 81 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 67 90 64 89 / 10 10 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...04 ####018009926#### FXUS62 KRAH 151832 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 231 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level disturbances moving atop an upper level ridge building across the SE US will support mainly diurnal showers and storms and unseasonably hot temperatures to end the work week. A series of cold fronts will move through the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 1049 AM Thursday... * Isolated/Widely Scattered Strong/Severe Convection Possible across the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain this afternoon/early evening Little updates this morning as the forecast is on track. Sfc observations this morning depicted a northward advancing warm front behind the slowly decaying stratus/fog shield in the northern Piedmont/Coastal Plain. This feature will continue to ride north somewhere into the south-central VA/north-northeastern NC later this afternoon. Embedded within increasing wnwly flow aloft and a substantially juicy atmosphere, mid-level impulses will initiate convection over the Blue Ridge Mountains in VA early this afternoon. A few isolated storms may trickle down into our northern Coastal Plain/Piedmont as these upstream cells interact with the advancing warm front. There remains uncertainty, however, with how much coverage we may actually see as some CAMs simulate drier solutions. If convection can reach our area, forecasted hodographs would favor right-moving supercells (elongated and clockwise-curved between 2-5 km) capable of producing large hail (possibly > 2 inches) and damaging wind gusts. Forecast soundings across northern areas indicate very limited low-level shear, and as such, think the better tornado threat is more-so up into VA today. However, if the warm front lingers across our northern areas, there would remain some concern for a brief isolated tornado wherever sfc winds may back just ahead of the warm front. Any stronger storms will dissipate with loss of heating this evening. Overnight should remain relatively dry, however showers associated with a decaying, upstream MCS may generate some measurable rainfall through sunrise across western areas. Otherwise, some patchy fog may be possible across northern areas early Friday morning. Previous discussion from 350 AM... Today: Upper level ridging will build eastward today, bringing modest 500 mb height rises(40 m) and suppressing widespread convection. However, strong diurnal heating(afternoon highs mid/upper 80s) within the residual moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8 deg C/km) from an expansive EML moving into the region from the from the Southern Plains/Mexico, will create a very unstable environment, with MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg. While the primary severe threat is expected to lie across eastern Va and northeastern NC, if convection moving off the Blue Ridge Mountains can drift far enough south into the northern Piedmont and northern coastal plain counties during the afternoon and evening, the fat CAPE profiles coupled with deep layer shear of 30-35 kts could support potentially vigorous updrafts and supercells capable of producing large hail and wind damage. An isolated tornado is also possible. Tonight: The severe threat diminishes after sunset, though some isolated to widely scattered convection may re-develop overnight. Fog potential tonight appears significantly lower than the previous 2 nights, but may still occur in more isolated/patchy variety in areas(northeast) receiving heavy rain. Warm overnight lows 65-70 F. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 PM Thursday... * A conditional risk of severe storms will exist across the nrn half of cntl NC on Fri, based on lower predictability, mesoscale influences from upstream convection across the lwr OH Valley today- tonight. 12Z guidance this morning continues to highlight an uncertain forecast wrt to convection Friday. An upstream, decaying MCS is still forecast by several models (e.g. NamNest, HRRR, NSSL) to cruise across the mountains and foothills early Friday morning. Strong sfc gusts (possibly 35 to 45 kts) associated with it's cold pool still look plausible early to mid Friday morning across the northern Piedmont. This scenario would favor less convective potential later Friday afternoon, as lingering cooler air and cloud debris limit sfc heating across northern areas. Alternatively, the FV3 and ARW CAMs continue to simulate the morning MCS further north into Virginia. This scenario would favor strong heating across all of central NC and the development of strong CAPE by Friday afternoon. Any convection that develops in this environment would favor explosive updrafts and supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Given this potential scenario, the SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe storms over our northern tier of counties. However, given some models limit afternoon convection, decided to maintain just slight chance PoPs across generally northern locations Friday afternoon and evening. During the overnight hours, yet another round of upstream, decaying MCSs are forecast to move into the mountains and foothills through sunrise. Like clockwork, there is little guidance consensus on the evolution of these features. However, its worth noting that some CAMs do indicate the potential for another round of strong sfc gusts embedded within associated cold pools early Saturday morning. Worth watching for sure. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM Wednesday... The mid/upper low and occluded surface low will track east across southern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday, dragging a cold front to the south that guidance is in good agreement will pass through central NC on Saturday evening/night. Instability continues to look moderate to strong along with 40+ kts of mid-level flow (similar to Friday). However, moisture with the front does not look impressive, as the flow aloft is still from a westerly direction, and we only get a glancing blow in upper forcing with the low tracking so far to our north. Ensemble mean QPF continues to be less than a tenth of an inch. So only have slight to low chance POPs in the afternoon and evening, highest over the northern Piedmont where again the greatest upper forcing will be. Still can't rule out a few strong to severe storms. Saturday's temperatures may be kept down a bit by the increased precipitation chances and approach of the cold front, particularly in the NW. But they should still be quite warm with highs in the mid-80s to lower-90s. Heat indices in the upper- 90s will again be possible in the SE. Overall forecast confidence decreases for the rest of the period. The mid-level flow will turn increasingly NW from Sunday into Tuesday, as we are caught between the low slowly drifting east over New England/SE Canada and ridging that strengthens and builds east from the Plains to the Deep South and TN Valley. At the surface, a secondary backdoor cold front looks to move through central NC sometime Sunday night or Monday, as the GFS and ECMWF start to diverge on how quickly the low over the Canadian Maritimes moves east into the Atlantic. This front will be quasi-stationary but should remain draped to our south and west through Tuesday, keeping us relatively dry and stable. The 12z GFS and ECMWF potential for an MCS moving through in the NW flow aloft late Monday, but timing and placement of these systems this far in advance is difficult to pinpoint. So only have slight chance POPs in the south and west from Sunday through Tuesday. Guidance depicts the next low moving NE from the Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday and Wednesday, which may help push the boundary back north as a warm front on Wednesday. But there is still plenty of divergence in guidance on the low's strength. Regardless it appears shower/storm chances will increase on Wednesday, so have chance POPs returning. Temperature forecast confidence is low from Sunday onward, especially by midweek, but the overall trend seems to be trending a bit cooler, especially on the ECMWF. As cool high pressure extends south from the Hudson Bay into the Eastern US, expect at least a gradual drop in temperatures, with highs reaching closer to normal. Dew points should also become more comfortable, dropping into the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 PM Thursday... 24 hour TAF period: Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms moving sewd out of cntl VA are still possible this aft/eve, mainly near KRWI (and possibly near KRDU and KFAY), accompanied by the usual restrictions/winds and possibly some hail. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the TAF period. Latest model guidance indicates minimal fog potential tonight/Friday morning, however the threat is non-zero at KRDU and KFAY depending where the showers/storms occur. Outlook: Chances for diurnal isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through much of the period. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially in areas that received significant rainfall the previous day. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...Luchetti/CBL SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...Danco AVIATION...KC/CBL ####018005540#### FXUS62 KCAE 151833 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 233 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation chances are low to close out the work week, with much warmer temperatures expected. The weekend looks hot and humid with a few afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible. The next significant chance of rain comes during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Mostly sunny this afternoon with above normal temperatures. - More mid to high level clouds around tonight with lows around 70 degrees. Upper ridging continues to build into the region from the west this afternoon. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the 80s across the CWA. Adjusted highs up by a few degrees based on recent trends. Mostly sunny skies continue through the afternoon with occasionally breezy winds out of the southwest. Winds diminish after sunset with increasing mid to high level cloudiness possible towards daybreak. Temperatures fall to around 70 degrees by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Warm and humid, especially on Friday. - An approaching cold front could spark a few showers or thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Upper ridge axis should be overhead at the start of the period, being replaced by zonal flow for the weekend. This keeps above normal temperatures in the forecast, especially on Friday when heat index values will be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. As we have been advertising, this is the first hot and humid day of the year and appropriate precautions should be taken if outdoors during peak heating on Friday. A weak cold front is slated to move into the FA on Saturday but guidance has not been excited about convective development. Regardless, the entire CWA is in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather in the Day 3 SPC SWO and some of the guidance suggests conditions will be favorable for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms but the threat should be focused in the vicinity of the cold front, which would serve as the primary trigger for convection. Guidance such as the HRRR and NAMNest indicates showers and thunderstorms will be diminishing as the front moves in on Saturday so PoPs are highest in the north and west. Trends will be monitored to see if the severe threat manifests on Saturday. Regardless, southwest winds may be gusty at times during the daytime hours ahead of the front, especially on area lakes. The cold front may stall in our area for Sunday and could once again trigger a few showers or thunderstorms, this time favoring the southern Midlands and CSRA. In the absence of any upper level forcing, the threat of severe weather should be even lower Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message(s): - Hot and humid conditions continue, with showers and thunderstorms possibly developing middle of next week as a cold front approaches the area. As an upper-lvl low situated over the High Plains continues to make its advancement east-northward towards the region, an associated frontal boundary will linger nearby. A chance of a couple isolated showers could be possible on Monday and Tuesday afternoon as this front meanders back and forth over the region. As this upper-lvl low inches closer, a more impressive setup looks likely on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a better chance at some showers and thunderstorms to develop. A cold front could possibly pass through on Thursday morning, however confidence remains low on the timing of this being so far out into the forecast. Above normal temperatures should prevail through the extended period. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR Conditions Continue through the TAF Period.... Afternoon satellite imagery shows passing mid to high level clouds moving in from the northwest and scattered cumulus moving southwest to northeast, though most of the clouds are not over the terminals at this time. VFR conditions are likely to continue with the only consideration being occasionally gusty southwesterly winds at the surface this afternoon. Winds diminish tonight and pick back up again Friday morning though gusts should not be as high tomorrow and the wind direction could be more westerly than today. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period barring low end chances for showers and thunderstorm each afternoon which could cause brief restrictions. && .HYDROLOGY... Releases upstream have caused the Saluda River at Chappells to rise into minor flood stage this afternoon. The river is forecast to crest this evening, falling back below flood stage tonight. The North Fork of the Edisto River has crested and fallen slightly below flood stage allowing the Flood Warning to be cancelled, though we will keep the warning up downstream at Branchville. Elsewhere, the Congaree River points are steady or slowly falling. The river has likely crested and should gradually fall below flood stage later this week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... Dennis AVIATION... HYDROLOGY... ####018009481#### FXUS62 KGSP 151833 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 233 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warm high pressure settles over our area through Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest and may bring a line of showers and storms into the North Carolina mountains late Friday night into early Saturday. The front will become stationary over our region into early next week as the next storm system organizes over the plains states. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 159 PM Thursday: A warm and humid afternoon continues as a tall upper ridge builds into the Appalachians through this evening. Rising heights and a notable capping inversion will keep convection at bay with the exception of stray shower over the northern mountains. Benign weather will continue into tonight with increasing high clouds and mild overnight low temperatures with a couple fast moving showers potentially transecting the mountains. The forecast becomes more complex tomorrow as the upper ridge axis shifts offshore and subtle height falls return as a potent wave slowly slides across the Mississippi Valley. This will allow for a period of quasi-zonal westerly flow to become established into the Southern Appalachians downstream of the base of the mean trough. A rather pronounced Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) will get advected into the region, which should largely keep most of the area capped. Forecast confidence decreases in regards to whether just enough forcing will be present to overcome the cap and either initiate deep convection across the North Carolina mountains/foothills or maintain upstream convective complexes into the area. The 12z suite of CAM guidance depicts a wide range of solutions ranging from too capped with no convection to the potential for vigorous deep convection across northern portions of the forecast area. While confidence is lower than usual, the most likely location for storms, should they occur, would generally be along and north of the I-40 corridor where the cap will be somewhat weaker. While conditional, should any storms impact the area the ceiling is very high regarding severe potential. The parameter space depicted in forecast soundings is definitely on the higher end for the Carolinas. The capping inversion/EML will support moderate to high instability with surface-based CAPE on the order of 3500-4000 J/kg along with steep mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km. Deep-layer wind vertical wind shear of 50-60 kts with straight hodographs will support clusters of splitting supercells within a robust thermodynamic environment. Thus, any storms that are able to develop (if at all) would easily become severe with the potential for very large hail and intense downdrafts. Once again, this is a very conditional severe threat and it's definitely possible that no storms impact the area owing to the strong cap. But given the previously mentioned parameter space, very close attention will need to be paid to the potential for even just one or two storms. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 100 PM Thursday, key messages: 1. Confidence has increased for organized convection to move from KY/TN into the southern Appalachians late Friday night into early Saturday morning, translating to a nonzero threat of severe weather at that time. 2. Per the above, confidence is slightly higher for a cold pool to overspread the area and suppress convection Saturday. The cold pool also would bring lower humidity to much of the area Saturday, although temperatures will remain above normal. As a mature low pressure system crosses the upper Mississippi Valley Friday night and Saturday morning, a shortwave will cross the lower Ohio Valley. A convergence axis, arguably a dryline, will move into a strongly unstable and sheared environment invof western KY/TN Friday evening. It looks likely at least one linear MCS--maybe two depending on how well the forcing mechanisms overlap--will take shape and progress to the western slopes of the Appalachians overnight or early Saturday morning. That suggests a widespread threat of damaging wind across the lower OH and TN valleys with potential for large hail as well. The track of the first MCS shown on some runs has generally been such that it misses us to the north. However, the dryline activity continues to be depicted as pushing across the TN/NC border between 06-12z Sat, with the earlier timing more likely given the potential for the cold pool to be driving development. We will be coming off a remarkably unstable afternoon, but MUCAPE still is likely to be greater than 1000 J/kg over our mountain zones. Thus it is plausible the line will at least make it partway into the CWA before weakening enough for the severe weather threat to diminish. SPC has included our mountains in the Day 2 Marginal Risk area. Many aspects of the forecast for Saturday remain contingent on how the convection plays out during the early morning, but with that looking more likely than it had been, confidence is not as low as before. PoPs will be retained over a good portion of the area Saturday morning as the convection decays along the edge of the cold pool and stratiform rain fizzles. Most models show little to no QPF response east of the mountains Saturday, The NAM shows some scattered response seemingly progressing with the cold pool thru the Piedmont late morning to afternoon, but that would be somewhat atypical; usually we experience a complete lull for a time with diurnally forced redevelopment late in the day, if the cold pool doesn't completely work us over. PoPs are being shown to taper from NW to SE during early to mid aftn. The cold pool is associated with an appreciable drop in dewpoints following the same trend; temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than Friday although potentially will be offset by downsloping. Maxes remain at least a few degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Thu: The actual cold front associated with the Great Lakes system should push into the CWA Saturday night. Still cooler conditions and lower dewpoints are forecast Sunday in the wake of the front. Ridge will be building in the lower MS Valley by that time, however, and the cold front stalls and gets reactivated to our west. Stable post-frontal airmass is most likely to persist over the NE half of the CWA. Seasonable CAPE of at least a few hundred joules will redevelop in the other half of the area, nearest the front; T/Td may actually be a little warmer in the Savannah Valley compared to Saturday. Furthermore, NW flow into the Appalachians will also provide weak forcing along the TN border so small PoPs extend along there. The ridge to our west and NW-SE oriented warm front may put us in the path of another MCS if one develops Sunday night or Monday. The deterministic global models, plus a number of members of the NAEFS and ECMWF ensembles, show precip developing variously in AR, MO, KY, TN Sunday and/or Monday and carry it into our area as an apparent MCV rounds the ridge. Per the pattern, that would appear possible Monday night or Tuesday as well, although there appears less support for that idea from the models. The MCS possibility notwithstanding, spotty diurnal convection may develop over the mountains Sunday, with climatological 20-40% chances Monday as dry air aloft should be less of a limiting factor that day. 0-6km shear will be supportive of at least an isolated severe threat if storms do develop either day. Early in the week, cyclogenesis is probable in the central CONUS as upper low moves across the Rockies. By late Tuesday we may enter the warm sector of that system if the front is able to shift far enough north. Shortwave/cold fropa potentially will occur Wednesday. Precip chances are highest those days but confidence on the extent of any severe threats is limited by spread in timing and the position of the front. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: An afternoon cumulus field has developed across the area with cloud bases currently in the MVFR range. So far, coverage has mainly been scattered but a couple instances of broken coverage cannot be ruled out at any given terminal. Otherwise, high clouds will increase in coverage through the period with a few wind gusts possible this afternoon. A few showers may move across the area early Friday morning, but both confidence and coverage is too low to warrant mention at this point. Outlook: A couple scattered thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon and a decaying line of storms is expected to move through at least the mountains early Saturday morning. In addition, fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, primarily in the mountain valleys and in areas that receive appreciable precip the previous day. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...TW SHORT TERM...Wimberley LONG TERM...Wimberley AVIATION...TW ####018007432#### FXUS62 KMHX 151834 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 234 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues today as a trough axis moves through the region. Summer-like weather arrives late this week as a ridge of high pressure builds through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Conditional severe thunderstorm risk late this afternoon and evening, best chances across the northern forecast area between 5-11 PM. Latest analysis shows wavy front draped through the Mid-Atlantic with weak troughing extending through the Carolinas. Isolated seabreeze showers beginning to develop now. This afternoon, heating of a moist boundary layer should lead to a gradual erosion of the cap, with most guidance suggesting an area of moderate to strong instability developing (MLCAPE of 2000-3000j/kg). Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft overtop south to southwest SFC winds should lead to deep layer shear increasing to 30-40kt. The overlap of strong instability and moderate shear is more anomalous for this time of year. Essentially we will be overlapping summer instability with spring shear. At face value, the shear/instability combo today is more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, including the potential for some higher end severe weather. However, convection this afternoon and evening will be fighting against warming temps aloft and upper level ridging building in from the SW. At the sfc, forcing looks to be primarily driven by sea/bay/river breezes, as well as a weak lee trough. Aloft, a mid-level shortwave translating east out of the TN Valley may also provide some support for lift. Short-term guidance remains in good agreement depicting isolated to scattered convective development where lift is maximized...best chances across the northern portions of the forecast area. Of note, some guidance is a bit more aggressive, showing supercells upstream congealing into one or two clusters that eventually move SE towards the coast during the evening hours. With any deep convection that can develop, and be sustained, the environment appears supportive of some higher end severe weather (large hail of golf ball size or larger, and damaging winds of 70+ mph). A low-end tornado potential appears evident as well, although higher LCLs and weaker low-level flow should keep this risk limited/more brief in nature. Lastly, should clusters of thunderstorms develop, there would be a locally enhanced wind risk. This appears to be one of those potential high impact, but low confidence scenarios. The environment supports some higher end severe potential, but the above-mentioned limitations make it unclear whether or not deep convection can develop and be sustained. Warming temps aloft and mid/upper level ridging should lead to a gradual decrease in convective coverage and intensity after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening Ridge continues to build Friday combined with SW winds will usher in a very warm airmass. Though dependent on cloud cover, will likely see temps climb into the low 90s inland (possible mid 90s) and low to upper 80s for the beaches. Main question will be the convective potential Fri afternoon and evening. Strength of the ridge should limit widespread convection, though with sea/sound breezes, the strong instability (ML CAPE 3-4000 J/kg) and shear, there is potential for isolated to widely scattered development (best chances across the northern 2/3 of the area. If any showers or storms are able to develop there is potential for a few stronger storms given the instability in place. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 0400 Thursday... Hot again on Saturday in downsloping flow, push highs into the lower or mid 90s with dew points still in the upper 60s. Heat indices in the upper 90s FRI, mid 90s SAT. Westerly flow intersecting the sea breeze could produce isolated storms during the afternoon with a slight uptick in rain chances during the evening as a cold front approaches the area, crossing overnight. Followed by a secondary backdoor front end of the weekend. Quiet and relatively cool early through midweek ahead of the next vertically stacked low to dig toward the Carolinas late week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Friday/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Modest TSRA potential through late this afternoon and evening, with potential for brief periods of sub-VFR VFR conditions expected through the period, outside of convection. With daytime heating and destabilization, isolated to scattered TSRA may redevelop by late afternoon into the evening hours. There are a couple of limiting factors for TSRA later today into tonight, however if TSRA manage to develop, there will be a subsequent risk of large hail (>1" in diameter) and 50-60kt+ winds. A low-end tornado risk appears evident as well. Sub-VFR conditions would occur with any TSRA as well. It appears that the TSRA risk will gradually decrease late tonight, with isolated chances Friday afternoon and evening. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 0400 Thursday...Shower chances decrease late this week and into the weekend, but isolated to scattered coverage will be possible each day (primarily during the afternoon). && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 235 PM Thu... KEY MESSAGES - Thunderstorms risk returns this afternoon and this evening Latest obs show SW winds 5-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft this afternoon. Modest southwesterly flow of 10-20 kt expected through tonight. Within this flow, occasional gusts up to 25 kt will be possible across the central waters and the Pamlico Sound. However, the risk doesn't appear significant enough to warrant any marine headlines. The modest southwesterly flow will keep seas elevated (3-5 ft). Similar pattern expected Fri, SW 5-15 kt early increasing to 10-20 kt late. The thunderstorm risk returns late afternoon into this evening, with sct coverage. Where thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening, there will be a risk of large hail and wind gusts in excess of 50kt. LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 0400 Thursday...Boating conditions deteriorate Saturday ahead of the next cold front to cross area waters leading to probable SCA conditions in SWerly 15-25kt winds SAT afternoon and evening. Secondary backdoor front sinks S across waters late Sunday. High pressure builds in with Nerly surge late SUN night/MON AM. Generally 10-15kt winds slowly through early week N-NEerly Tuesday becoming Eerly Wednesday as offshore high departs SEward and next low approaches from the W. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...CEB AVIATION...CQD/CEB MARINE...CQD/CEB ####018007550#### FXUS61 KCLE 151834 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 234 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Northern Plains will lift a warm front northeast across the region today. Another low pressure system moves across the Ohio Valley Friday night and will drag a cold front east on Saturday. High pressure builds across the area Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... For this afternoon, it does appear that we have a window of time with 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE with continued theta-e advection. Not much of a focus to kick off convection, but could see isolated thunderstorms this afternoon before the capping inversion expands eastward. Convection is starting to fire upstream in Minnesota this afternoon and is expected to fill in along the trough axis extending south across Lake Michigan. 12Z high resolution models are pretty aggressive with an MCS developing over southwest lower Michigan and northern Indiana and moving into the Toledo area towards 11 PM. Models show some spread overnight with how this system evolves tracking into northern Ohio with some models keeping activity focused closer to Lake Erie and Cleveland with other models showing activity moving southeast along the instability gradient towards Mansfield and Canton. Both options make severe weather a possibility unless it remains primarily focused north of Lake Erie. That is not out of the question but with northwesterly flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, preference is for convection to move east or southeast ahead of the building ridge aloft. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms along the I-75 corridor with the Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms extending all the way into NW Pennsylvania. Previous discussion... Upper level ridge will move east across the eastern Great Lakes today as an upper low over the Northern Plains moves into the Great Lakes region. The surface low will lift a warm front northeast across the local forecast area during the day today advecting in a warm and moist airmass. There's a low chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms across eastern zones this afternoon as an upper level trough lingers through this afternoon. Otherwise the daytime hours should largely remain dry under the upper ridge. A broken line of convection ahead of a cold front develops upstream today before moving east across portions of Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and entering western Ohio tonight. These upstream discrete cells will evolve into a broken line as it approaches the local forecast area. The latest CAMs indicate that this organized line will be entering an environment characterized by MLCAPE upwards of 2500 J/kg, 7.5 C/km mid level lapse rates, roughly 35-40 knots of bulk layer shear, and 300 m2/s2 of sfc-1km SRH. All severe weather hazards including, damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few embedded tornadoes along the line, are possible. General arrival time for strong to severe storms will be roughly 8-10 PM along the I- 75 corridor, 10 PM-12 AM across north-central Ohio, and 11 PM-1 AM across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. To cover the severe weather threat, the SPC has highlighted all of our Ohio Counties in a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) SWODY1. Initial round of showers and thunderstorms will exit early Friday morning as the cold front exits to the east. Another round of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, enters from the southwest as low pressure lifts across the Ohio Valley. Showers and storms will likely enter near or after sunset Friday night, similar to the Thursday night into Friday morning severe weather threat. Afternoon highs today and Friday will rise into the mid 80s today with dew points in the upper 60s. Warm overnight lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... At the onset of the short term Friday night, will see a sharp uptick in the frontogenesis with the cold front moving into northwest Ohio, and shower/thunderstorm activity increases. Upper level low traverses the Great Lakes west to east with a secondary cold front coming through early Saturday. This secondary cold front will have the more significant low level cold air advection along with an infiltration of low level moisture from the counterclockwise flow of the upper level low. Expect variable cloud cover through the weekend and temperatures cooling significantly from the Thursday and Friday values and highs in the 60s by Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level low departs with weak ridging for early next week. This becomes a drier pattern for the area until another upper level low ejects from the southwestern US into the central plains region. Associated surface low moves into the Ohio Valley tracking west to east just south of the CWA, with moisture slung far enough northward for POP increases midweek. Temperature recovery will be slow but steady after Sunday, and back into the lower 70s for most locations Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/... VFR conditions will be in place this afternoon with thunderstorms expected overnight. We are watching for a complex of severe thunderstorms to develop in Southwest Lower Michigan and northern Indiana overnight and approach TOL towards 03Z. These storms are likely to continue east or southeast overnight, impacting most Ohio terminals and possibly CLE and MFD between 06-08Z with ERI towards 8-10Z. Thunderstorms in Ohio will have the potential for heavy rain with IFR conditions and may also have strong winds of 40-50 knots or hail. We will need to refine timing and peak wind gusts as we see which terminals are most likely to be impacted. There is some potential for training of storms which could prolong the period of heavy rain and IFR conditions. Most terminals will have south to southeast winds this afternoon except northeast at ERI. Winds will shift to more southwesterly this evening ahead of the thunderstorms and westerly behind them into Friday morning. Southwesterly winds will develop again during the day on Friday at 8-12 knots. Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible through early Saturday. && .MARINE... Southeast winds this morning 5-10kts gives way to another east northeast lake breeze this afternoon. Waves less than a foot become around a foot in the more onshore flow before becoming southwesterly tonight 10-15kts. A series of cold fronts come through Friday, Friday night, and early Saturday. The last cold front will be the one with the most significance of wind direction changes to the west on Saturday 15-25kts. East of Cleveland, expecting wave heights during this period to increase to 3-5ft in the nearshore zones, and 2-4ft west. Sunday through Monday, wave heights become 1-3ft as onshore winds decrease to 10kts by Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...13 NEAR TERM...10/13 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...10/13 MARINE...26 ####018009227#### FXUS63 KJKL 151834 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 234 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower/storm chances continue at times through the middle of next week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. - There is the potential for organized severe weather this evening through tonight, with a greater risk for organized severe weather Friday morning into Friday night. - Temperatures are expected to warm to 10 degrees above normal today and Friday - then moderate back closer to normal from Saturday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 220 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025 There is not much change to the ongoing near-term forecast. PoPs have been lowered below 15 for the remainder of this afternoon as convection has remained suppression given rapidly rising mid-level heights. PoPs are gradually increased again into the evening and overnight as subtle height falls occur with a shortwave impinging into the mid-level ridge axis as it crosses far eastern Kentucky. This will be the beginnings of a much more favorable environment for upstream convection to sustain itself into eastern Kentucky, but will also increasingly provide a more favorable environment (i.e., increased shear and moisture/instability advection) for new convective development over the area. The atmospheric environment over eastern Kentucky becomes extremely conducive for multiple rounds of thunderstorms beginning as early as Friday morning and lasting into Friday night, with the potential for scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms as a stout mid-level jet moves over a warm sector characterized by mid-60s dew points. The primary uncertainty late tonight through Friday afternoon is the timing of storms, and whether these storms will take on a more discrete nature or develop in clusters. Any discrete storms during the morning through late afternoon will be particularly capable of producing large damaging hail, as indicated by long straight hodographs in the 3 to 9 km layer. However, damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. Any tornado threat would be maximized along any warm front or other mesoscale boundaries over the area. Models show unusually high confidence in one, maybe two, fast- moving mesoscale convective systems moving east across the forecast area Friday evening into the overnight Friday night, with the severe threat increasingly becoming damaging winds, some of which may be significant (gusts greater than 75 mph). Large hail and isolated QLCS tornadoes will also be possible. A flash flood risk will also exist during the evening and overnight, especially where storms repeat over the same area in fairly rapid succession. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 450 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2025 The models, and their individual ensemble suites, have come into better agreement aloft through the first part of the long term portion of the forecast and are well aligned during the weekend. However, some greater discrepancies start to crop up for the first part of the new work week. They all now depict quite similarly the compact, closed h5 trough pushing east out of the Upper Midwest and through the northern Great Lakes. This is well north of ridging through the central Gulf Coast States and up into the Deep South initially, but suppressed south with time. The large northern trough will dominate the Great Lakes region and into the Ohio Valley through the weekend north of that flattening southern ridge. This sets up a fast stream of deep mid-level flow through Kentucky tilting from the southwest to more zonal into Saturday. This flow will sustain a warm and moist environment in the lower levels while several distinct short waves trough the region before the northern trough passes by to the northeast tilting the flow more northwesterly. By Sunday, 5h heights will be climbing locally as the Gulf ridge rebounds into the region - quickest in the GFS ensembles than the ECMWF. This ridge builds north through the breadth of the Mississippi Valley ahead of another large upstream trough diving through the Rockies. Into midweek, ridging will move overhead of Kentucky as the western troughing lifts quickly to the Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This pattern then shifts east with 5h height falls coming in from the west as that trough opens up and spreads its energy into the region from the northwest - though stronger and more contained in the operational GFS than the ECMWF. The rather small model spread for the bulk of the long term supported using the NBM as the starting point with minimal adjustments needed - mainly to include some radiational cooling based terrain distinction in temperatures at night over the weekend. Sensible weather features a stormy start to the long term portion of the forecast as a stacked, strong - but gradually weakening - sfc low will be moving into the Great Lakes region into Saturday. Locally, this will lure a warm front north into Kentucky from the south on Friday where it will likely stall just north of the state before pushing back south as the main northern system's cold front on Saturday. During that process, though, each mid level impulse will likely be enough to generate storm clusters to the northwest of the area that then wash over the JKL CWA downstream with a potential for heavy rain and severe weather - probably lessening during the life cycle. The NAM12 would imply that one of these develop Friday afternoon in northwest Kentucky then fades out before affecting much of the eastern part of the state - not ready to bite on this and expect the activity to be able to sustain into our area through the day given the relatively primed thermodynamics and healthy low level shear. Later that night another round should develop to the north and likely spreads in during the early morning hours. This seems reasonable and could be the main threat for severe weather with this system. CIPS analogues are also highlighting this time range for the best chances for severe weather from organized convection that upscales into an MCS and comes through the area with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. These storms are expected to help push the cold front deeper into southeast Kentucky and possibly all the way through into Tennessee early Saturday. However, there is a strong potential for the boundary to linger with additional shower and storm chances through Saturday evening. Drier air then looks to move into the area that night with some clearing, radiational cooling, and valley fog anticipated. Sunday should be dry, but there is a small potential that the cold front will start to work back north and set up for more shower chances. The western Cumberland Valley will have the best shot at renewed convection on Sunday. Likewise, Monday (after another night of radiation cooling) will see that boundary to the southwest perhaps getting active enough for more showers in the Cumberland Valley. Have also included some radiation cooling/terrain based differences for low temperatures that night in the northeast ahead of that returning front. For Tuesday and Wednesday that boundary will likely be in place over portions of eastern Kentucky allowing for more convection with storms possible Tuesday night and through the day Wednesday - aided by more upper support and height falls arriving from the northwest. The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of adding terrain distinction to the temperatures for Saturday and Sunday nights. As for PoPs - did not deviate from the NBM solution given the similar model clustering and net results for this part of the area though refinement to timing and extent will be needed in forthcoming forecasts. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase this evening into the overnight, with chances increasing further towards the end of the TAF period after ~15z Friday. However, confidence is currently too low to include in anything other than a PROB30 group for now for any specific terminal. Any thunderstorms that occur could bring localized sub- VFR conditions. LLWS is likely tonight ahead of this approaching system and has been included in all TAFs. The threat for damaging (possibly significant) winds and large damaging hail will be on the increase with any thunderstorms through the day Friday into Friday night. The most widespread severe risk will come Friday evening into the overnight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GREIF AVIATION...CMC ####018003544#### FXUS64 KSJT 151835 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 135 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday through early next week. Strong to severe storms will be possible in the afternoons/evenings. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 A weak cold front will slide across the area today, and will combine with the veil of mid and high clouds across the area to keep temperatures down some today. Still looking at above normal readings but with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Warmest location will again be across the Hill Country which will see the front last, but without the downslope winds like the last few days, should not see any triple digit temperatures. A few of the CAMs have shown some isolated showers and storms ahead of the front across the Big Country and Heartland. Chances look low enough to not mention quite yet, but this is one area where the forecast will need to be closely monitored. If some convection looks more possible, will update to add a mention. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Thursday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 After hot and dry conditions for much of this week, we're looking at a pattern change for the start of the long term. An upper level trough will form over western CONUS this weekend. Ahead of the trough, multiple shortwaves and disturbances will move through the flow aloft. This combined with a dryline sitting right over our area will provide a trigger for thunderstorms in the afternoon and into the evening for Saturday through Monday. Models have the dryline pushing east through our area in the afternoon, then retreating back west overnight. The location of the dryline each afternoon when/if the storms start initiating will have a significant impact on thunderstorm chances for our western counties. Areas to the east of the dryline will have the best chance for rain and potentially severe weather. Instability and shear will likely be sufficient enough to produce severe weather if storms can get going. Right now, it looks like the main hazard will be large hail, but we'll get a better idea on hazards and locations as we get closer. Rain chances will decrease after Monday night. The upper level trough will move over our area on Tuesday, with upper level ridging building in behind it. Temperatures will remain above normal for the long term period, with highs in the mid 80s to upper 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. North to northeast winds around 10 knots will persist through mid to late afternoon today, before becoming light and variable, then eventually turning to the south/southwest by late Friday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 67 94 68 93 / 0 0 0 30 San Angelo 65 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 30 Junction 68 101 69 99 / 0 10 10 30 Brownwood 67 96 68 94 / 0 0 0 50 Sweetwater 66 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 20 Ozona 67 96 69 95 / 0 0 0 20 Brady 70 98 71 96 / 0 10 10 40 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...20