####018010210#### FXUS64 KHGX 151836 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 136 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Hot weather continues today with similar conditions to that of yesterday. 500mb Heights are on the rise as the center of a midlevel high shifts over the western Gulf of America. A 850mb low/trough pushing eastward has tightened the pressure gradient thus strengthening the LLJ to 30-45 knots. While 850mb temperatures are a tad weaker than the day before, the strengthened LLJ should amplify WAA, with the HREF showing temp advection reaching upwards of 1.0- 3.0 K/hr at times on the higher end of the distribution, though notably less potent than previously forecast. HREF and CAMs continue to show lackluster mixing in spite of the strong winds in the lower levels. It'll remain to be seen, though I wouldn't be surprised if we saw dewpoints drop into the upper 60s in some locations. Taking account for all these factors, in addition to greater cloud cover, the heat should be tolerable enough, such that to avoid the need for a Heat Advisory today. Experimental Heat Risk has been calculated to be Moderate to Major (3/5 - 4/5), though given the aforementioned meteorological conditions, this level of heat will mainly affect individuals more sensitive to heat. WBGT heat stress will peak at Moderate to High (3/5 - 4/5) this afternoon. Overall similar to yesterday, though broadly favoring a lesser heat risk, thus will continue to hold of on a Heat Advisory. Friday rolls around with broadly the same pattern, but a few important differences. 500mb heights across the Gulf of America and surrounding coastlines should continue to creep upwards. The northern shift of the western trough axis should slowly weaken the pressure gradient, causing the LLJ to weaken from 30-40 knots to as low as 20 knots in the afternoon. This means winds won't be as gusty as Thursday, though still sufficient to make the heat more tolerable. Subsequently, WAA is also reduced to 0.5-1.5 K/hr, limiting the added heating from advection. ECMWF EFI for MaxT ranges form 0.5-0.95 with NAEFS 850mb temps only above the 90th percentile. 850mb temps are also low than past days in the CAMs too. Once again, models are pessimistic on the extend of mixing during the afternoon, showing fairly high dewpoints in the uppers 60s/70s. Taking a brief detour from talking heat, a frontal boundary/dry line may push into the vicinity of the Brazos Valley Friday afternoon, which could initiate some isolated thunderstorms across our northern counties. While only select CAMs show this (Fv3), it's still be worth maintaining some light PoPs. Back to heat, Heat Risk is still forecasted too be Moderate to Major (3/5 - 4/5) with WBGT heat stress reaching Moderate (3/5) at least in the afternoon. With similar meteorological conditions, this level of heat should primarily affect groups more sensitive to heat. If you plan to spend an extended amount of time outdoors, be sure to drink plenty of water to stay hydrated. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Mostly tranquil conditions are expected to prevail across Southeast TX through the next several days as a mid-level high pressure meanders over the Gulf. Mid-level heights in the 587-590 dam range will prevail this weekend, along with hot conditions and high temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 90s for most locations north of I-10, the low to mid 90s for locations south of I-10, and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coasts. To give you another perspective, these temperatures are roughly between 5-11 deg above average for this time of the year. Aside from the highs, we will need to keep in mind the added effect of winds and moisture. South to southeasterly flow will continue to supply warm moist air from the Gulf this weekend while a weak boundary stalls over Central TX. This will lead to moisture converging over our area and increasing PWs into the 1.6" to 1.8" range. As a consequence, conditions will feel much warmer. The current forecast carries Heat Indices between 100-107 deg F inland. Now...the boundary stalling over Central TX may also lead to a tighter pressure gradient over our area, and thus, slightly stronger winds along the surface. This could bring a little relief to some, however, heat impacts will remain to be a concern. Keeping in mind that many are not yet acclimated to these conditions, there is the possibility of heat related headlines and/or a Heat Advisory for portions of Southeast TX during weekend. Make the proper preparations to keep yourself, your family, and pets safe from heat related impacts, including limiting outdoor work and activities, taking frequent breaks in the shade or a room with AC, stay hydrated, and limit sun exposure. Be aware of heat related illnesses and be ready to act quickly if symptoms arise. By early next week, a mid-upper level trough will move across the Southern Plains and some locations could see high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler - closer to the low to mid 90s range - although a few spots may still see highs in the upper 90s (in particular over the Brazos Valley region). An associated weak cold front looks to stall over Central TX again, leading to another rise in PWs (ranging between 1.7" to 2.0"). Although the front will not make it into Southeast TX, it will at least tighten the local pressure gradient. This could then lead to stronger surface winds on Monday and Tuesday, roughly 15-20 mph, which may subside some of our heat impacts. The Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region also have a chance for some showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and can briefly provide slightly cooler conditions for a few areas. Regardless, it is recommended to remain alert and prepared for any heat impacts for the next several days. Cotto - 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions and gusty southerly winds are expected this afternoon. Wind gusts ease off this evening as daytime heating wanes. MVFR CIGS slowly build in from the coast tonight, lowing to IFR levels in areas mostly south of I-10 heading into Friday morning. CIGs improve and gusty winds resume mid/late Friday morning after sunrise. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 With a surface high pressure centered across the eastern Gulf, south to southeast winds will continue through most of the period. Winds are expected to weaken the rest of this afternoon and evening, falling below advisory levels. However, seas offshore will still be into the 6 to 7 ft range, occasionally higher through early this evening. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 7PM CDT. Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail at least through next Wednesday. Winds and seas could reach advisory levels at times early next week. Overall, dry and warm weather will prevail within the next 7 days. Beach and Swimming Conditions: Above average water levels are expected, especially during the high tide cycles. This could result in isolated/minor coastal flooding due to elevated tides through early this evening. The risk of rip currents also continues along all Gulf-facing beaches and will likely persist into the weekend. JM && .CLIMATE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat expected over the upcoming week, here's a look at the daily high temperature records through Tuesday (May 20th). May 15th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 95F (1925) - Houston/IAH: 94F (2018) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (1978) - Palacios: 93F (1943) - Galveston: 89F (2022) May 16th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 95F (2003) - Houston/IAH: 94F (2022) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022) - Palacios: 88F (2010) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 17th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (1925) - Houston/IAH: 96F (2018) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018) - Palacios: 93F (2003) - Galveston: 90F (2020) May 18th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 98F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2022) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022) - Palacios: 89F (2022) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 19th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 94F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2003) - Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008) - Palacios: 89F (2024) - Galveston: 90F (2022) May 20th High Temperature Records --------------------------------- - College Station: 96F (2022) - Houston/IAH: 95F (2020) - Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008) - Palacios: 95F (1943) - Galveston: 91F (2022) Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 97 75 96 76 / 0 0 20 0 Houston (IAH) 96 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 86 77 86 77 / 0 0 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330- 335-350-355. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...03 LONG TERM....Cotto /24/ AVIATION...03 MARINE...JM ####018008776#### FXUS61 KBUF 151838 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 238 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A broad wave of low pressure aloft will gradually shift east of the region later today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. The next closed low will then gradually cross the Great Lakes over the weekend, resulting in several additional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms through at least Saturday night. Much cooler and generally drier weather behind this system expected to last through the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Radar is showing the development of showers with some embedded thunder for portions of the western Southern Tier. Satellite is showing diurnal cu developing across much of the forecast area, along with lake breezes off of both lakes. Temperatures this afternoon will range in the 70s with the cooler spots closer to the lake shores and over the higher terrain. This afternoon, expect showers to continue to expand some in coverage with the potential for embedded thunderstorms to continue as well. Diurnal effects along with a passing trough is triggering the convective activity. There is a fair amount of instability, but shear is low. Tonight, afternoon showers will dissipate with both the loss of daytime heating and the departure of the weak trough moving across the area. Drier weather is expected most of the evening and into the first half of the night. Upstream showers and thunderstorms will track into the forecast area along a weakening and dissipating frontal system. Showers/storms will track into the far western NY area a few hours before sunrise and continue to track east to near the Genesee Valley by the morning commute. Showers/storms along the frontal boundary will have the potential for brief moderate to heavy downpours. The WNY area is in a 'Marginal Risk' for the potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm, but overall parameters look marginal to support the potential for strong to severe storms. DCAPE values may be just high enough to support some gusty winds as any thunderstorms come into the area. Most showers and storms should be the result of lingering convection from upstream activity. Friday, showers and storms near the Genesee Valley will continue to track northeast into the morning and early afternoon. As the convective activity tracks east-northeast, the front supporting the showers/storms will continue to weaken and most of the more organized activity should start to breakup. Afternoon daytime heating for the eastern portions of the area along with some lingering forcing from the weakening front will help to allow showers with a few embedded thunderstorms to linger into the remainder of the afternoon. A few storms may bring gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall at times, but shear values along with instability look limited for the day on Friday as well. The Storm Prediction Center has most of the are south of Lake Ontario in a 'Marginal Risk' once again for Friday. Mainly dry conditions are expected for areas of WNY after mid-morning. Temperatures on Friday will be in the low 70s to low 80s for most areas, with areas closer to the lakes down a few degrees cooler, especially for downtown Buffalo where a SW wind may limit the afternoon temps to the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper level low over Minnesota Friday night will drop east-southeast across the Great Lakes through Saturday night before lifting north into New England Sunday and Sunday night. This being said, the surface low currently over the mid-Atlantic will have exited east while the surface low correlating with the aforementioned upper level low over the upper Great Lakes will place a surface cold front across the central Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley Friday night. This front will pass across the region Friday night through Saturday, supporting showers and a few thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms Saturday morning may become severe, especially along the cold frontal boundary as there will be increasing values of effective bulk shear and steep lapse rates. In the wake of the frontal passage Saturday afternoon across the west, a drier and cooler airmass will filter across the region with winds becoming quite breezy. However, the area won't be completely dry as lake breeze boundaries develop and support a few showers and thunderstorms north and south of the boundaries. Meanwhile with the front remaining across the eastern half of the area, showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday afternoon across the northern Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. As the upper level low and corresponding trough settles across the eastern Great Lakes region Saturday night and pulls northeast into New England Sunday, cool moist air rotating across the area will support scattered showers to linger. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... An upper level low and corresponding trough will lie across New England Monday with a ridge building to the west across the upper Great Lakes, placing the region in the entrance region of the trough across the Northeast through at least Wednesday. The next closed upper level low will then develop by mid-week. Long range model guidance continues to have timing, development and placement discrepancies with this mid-week system. This all being said, expect a skinny ridge of surface high pressure to lie across the Great Lakes through the first few days of the new work week. Then, expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop Wednesday and last through Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures next week will average a good ten degrees cooler than normal due to the placement of the upper level trough overhead. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions for all the TAF sites, though some inland showers/storms may cause CIGs & VSBY to lower to MVFR. A few of the thunderstorms across the Southern Tier may expand toward the TAF sites south of Lake Ontario. Winds are generally light and variable across the area. Tonight, afternoon convection will scatter out during the evening and mainly VFR conditions are expected across most of the area through the first half of the night. Guidance is indicating some patchy fog across portions of the area, mainly over the higher terrain and near the lakes, so there may be brief reductions to VSBYs at times, mainly down to MVFR. Flight conditions will deteriorate during the second half of the night as a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms tracks into the far SW NY area a few hours before daybreak and expand northeast. Moderate to heavy showers will be possible causing both CIGs & VSBY to drop to MVFR & IFR at times. Friday, the line of showers & storms will continue northeast across the rest of the forecast area, lowering CIGs and VSBY to MVFR & IFR for a few hours until the showers push east. For the eastern half of the area the more organized showers/storms should weaken and dissipate some, but afternoon daytime heating will bring the potential for a few more showers/storms that develop. For area of WNY, flight conditions should improve late in the morning as the showers/storms move east. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR/MVFR. Restrictions likely at times with periodic showers and thunderstorms. Sunday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers east of KROC. Monday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Light wind and wave action is expected through tonight, with weak lake breezes developing this afternoon. There is also a risk for a few thunderstorms near the lakeshores this afternoon, though the majority of the activity is expected to be further inland. Patches of fog may linger on both lakes into tonight though confidence in this is low. Winds will shift out of the southwest and increase on Friday with another round of showers/thunderstorms, though SCA conditions are not expected until a stronger cold front moves across the lakes on Saturday. These may last into Sunday night, especially on Lake Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PP NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...EAJ LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...SW MARINE...PP