####018008803#### FXUS64 KFWD 180610 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 110 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered (30-40% coverage) strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening with primarily threats for damaging winds and large hail. - Additional severe thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon and evening near and east of I-35. In addition to hail and wind threats, chances are higher for a tornado or two to occur east of I-35 and north of I-20. - A cold front on Tuesday will knock temperatures back down to near or slightly below normal for the middle of next work week, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday Evening/ Additional rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today and Monday, with all severe hazards possible. The main time window of concern will be from late afternoon into the evening hours both days. An upper trough axis presently situated over the Intermountain West will continue to dig southeastward during the next 36 hours, with its influences already beginning locally today. In response to lee cyclogenesis, low-level wind fields will be on the increase during the next 12 hours, while surface dewpoints recover into the mid 70s following yesterday evening's convection. The otherwise oppressive humidity will be offset to a degree by a steady southerly breeze of 15-20 mph and some gusts up to 30 mph during the daytime. By early/mid afternoon, a lead disturbance rippling through southwesterly flow aloft may attempt to ignite high-based convection rooted at or above 10 kft as a plume of Pacific moisture arrives within a belt of strong subtropical westerlies. However, deeper and more robust convection will become more likely along the dryline boundary positioned farther west through the Big Country and western North Texas later in the afternoon (possibly not until as late as 5-6 pm). This activity (should it be able to overcome weak capping and dry air entrainment) would likely consist of discrete supercells initially given the orthogonality of shear vectors to the dryline, until perhaps some upscale growth in to a small complex occurs around or after sunset. Unlike yesterday, the stronger low/mid- level wind fields and therefore stronger bulk shear should aid with thunderstorm organization and longevity, and may be able to sustain supercells or a more organized convective cluster later into the evening or nighttime period. While large hail and damaging winds will certainly be the primary hazards amid extreme instability and moderate shear, a slightly higher tornado threat may exist today compared to the past couple of days, especially with any initial supercellular activity. This will be due to stronger low-level flow and hodographs more favorable for right- moving supercells and tornadogenesis. While most of this activity should wind down overnight with the nocturnal increase in MLCIN, broad synoptic scale ascent could continue to support isolated showers and probably sub-severe thunderstorms overnight in parts of North Texas. As the potent upper trough digs closer on Monday, another round of severe thunderstorms will develop along or ahead of the dryline during the afternoon and evening. The dryline is likely to advance a bit farther eastward into parts of North Texas by Monday afternoon, perhaps bulging as far east as the I-35 corridor during the peak heating hours. Initiation of scattered supercells should be the result, with areas roughly along/east of I-35 and along/north of I-20 at greatest risk for severe weather. This would likely be a brief window of severe potential, as storms will be fast-moving given the stronger wind fields in closer proximity to the upper trough with mean southwesterly steering flow of 50+ kts. While storms may only be isolated/scattered in terms of coverage, they would have the potential to pose high-impact severe hazards, including tornadoes. This would be most likely across parts of East/Northeast Texas during the late afternoon and early evening hours when 0-1 km shear will increase to 20+ kts and 0-1 km SRH will climb to near 250 m2/s2. These storms will likely race off to the northeast and out of the forecast area around sunset. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 252 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ /Monday through next Saturday/ Following a final day of muggy conditions and active convection, the weather over North Central Texas will quickly transition to a dry and more seasonable temperature regime through the remainder of the workweek. The longwave upper trough which will have resided over the Western United States for the past few days will finally exit the Rockies on Monday and enter the Plains States. A warm, humid and very unstable airmass will persist over the region on Monday. Appreciable synoptic scale forcing for ascent will exist in advance of the mean upper trough, facilitating widespread shower and thunderstorm activity over our area through the afternoon hours. The bulk of this activity should shift into the eastern North Texas counties by evening, with all precipitation ending from west to east later Monday night. The storms Monday will once again benefit from substantial CAPE and deep layer shear. As such, a severe weather risk will continue to exist over most of our forecast area, highlighted by a large hail and wind risk. The combination of shear and instability will promote at least a low end tornado threat closer to the Red River as well. A noticeable (and welcome) cold front will sweep through North Texas early Tuesday, delivering northwest winds and drier air to the region. A dry northwesterly upper level flow regime will evolve over the Southern Plains through mid to late week, promoting sunny and seasonably warm days, mostly clear nights, and overnight lows settling comfortably into the 50s and lower 60s. Indeed, next week may feature our final mornings with lows this comfortable until next fall - so be sure to enjoy them! A return to southerly to southwesterly deep level flow will resume by week's end, hastening a return to temperatures more typical of late May or even early June. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06z TAFs/ Low-level southerly flow is recovering after being interrupted by convective activity earlier in the evening, and this will send another round of MVFR stratus northward into the TAF sites between 09-11z. These cigs will progressively lift and scatter to VFR by late morning, with increasingly breezy southerly winds prevailing during the daytime. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop in parts of North Texas by mid afternoon, but higher chances for storms will arrive around or after 00z as storms initiating along the dryline to the west begin to organize and spread eastward. We will include a brief Tempo TSRA group for Metroplex airports early this evening when convective impacts appear most likely. However, this timing is still uncertain and may need to be adjusted forward or backward by a couple of hours depending on guidance and observational trends during the next 18 hours. Convection would likely be exiting the TAF sites towards the end of the valid period, with another swath of MVFR stratus spreading in from the south heading into Monday morning. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested across North and Central Texas this afternoon and evening. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 88 72 85 69 / 30 50 30 70 30 Waco 65 90 72 88 70 / 30 30 10 50 30 Paris 68 84 69 82 69 / 40 40 40 70 50 Denton 66 87 69 85 64 / 20 50 30 70 30 McKinney 72 86 70 83 69 / 30 50 30 70 40 Dallas 72 88 71 85 69 / 30 50 30 70 30 Terrell 71 87 71 84 70 / 40 40 30 70 30 Corsicana 63 90 74 89 72 / 40 30 20 60 30 Temple 73 92 73 92 70 / 30 20 10 40 20 Mineral Wells 66 88 70 89 61 / 10 50 30 50 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ ####018006699#### FXUS62 KJAX 180611 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 211 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 212 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through around 09Z. Low stratus ceilings and fog will develop overnight over the Suwannee Valley and will expand eastward towards the I-95 corridor during the predawn and early morning hours. IFR conditions are expected to begin at GNV towards 10Z and at VQQ towards 11Z. Confidence was too low to indicate IFR conditions at JAX, CRG, and SGJ, but low stratus ceilings could impact these terminals around or just after sunrise. VFR conditions are expected to otherwise prevail at SSI through at least 20Z. Low stratus ceilings and fog will dissipate at GNV and VQQ before 15Z, with VFR conditions then prevailing at the northeast FL terminals. Showers and thunderstorms developing over inland portions of southeast GA on Sunday afternoon will dive southeastward and will approach the SSI terminal after 21Z. This convection could be strong, and we included a PROB30 group for brief wind gusts of around 30 knots and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours. This activity should move offshore of the southeast GA coast by 03Z Monday. West-southwesterly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots overnight will shift to westerly and will diminish during the predawn and early morning hours. Surface winds should shift to northwesterly after 14Z, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will develop earlier than prior days along the Atlantic coast, with this boundary progressing inland and crossing the I-95 corridor towards 21Z. && .UPDATE... Issued at 930 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 No significant changes to the forecast this evening. Some high clouds overnight will start to be accompanied by some low stratus as well as some patchy fog advecting off the Gulf. Expecting chances for low clouds and especially fog to be confined mainly to the interior west of about I-95. Overnight lows range from the upper 60s to low 70s for the interior to the mid 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night) Showers and storms anticipated to develop over southeast Georgia on Sunday as a cold front presses down into Georgia, allowing for moist flow and weak waves to cross over the northern portion of the forecast area. There is a potential for stronger storms to develop on Sunday with the main threats associated with these storms being powerful wind gusts, hail, and frequent lightning. Primarily dry weather is anticipated for northeast Florida on Sunday due to high pressure ridging extending from out of the east over the Florida peninsula. Dry weather will become area-wide on Monday as high pressure to the north moves off to the east and the influence of ridging over Florida slides northward into southeast Georgia. High temperatures for this period will be in the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through next Saturday) Dry weather will be in place on Tuesday followed by showers and storms developing over southeast Georgia on Wednesday as a frontal boundary presses in from out of the northwest. Drier weather conditions are expected to return by the end of the week as drier air and high pressure ridging extends over the forecast area. Weather conditions will become more dry and stable before the end of the week as drier air and high pressure settles in over the region. High temperatures for next week will start off well above the seasonal average, with max temps reaching into the mid to upper 90s, with temps experiencing a slight cooling trend after midweek and becoming closer to the seasonal average by the end of the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Prevailing offshore flow will continue through the weekend but weaken enough to allow afternoon sea breeze development across the nearshore waters. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop along a stalled front this afternoon and again Sunday across the Georgia coastal waters before lifting north of the region next week. Offshore flow will strengthen Wednesday next week as a late season cool front approaches. The front will pass through the waters Wednesday evening and bring isolated thunderstorm chances with it. Rip Currents: Little risk (does't mean a zero-risk) of rip currents amid breezy offshore flow today. Weakening flow will allow sea breeze to push onshore Sunday and Monday resulting in increasing risk, around a low-end Moderate risk during the afternoons. && .FIRE WEATHER... A high pressure ridge will stretch across south FL today, as a frontal boundary settles across central GA. This boundary will linger across GA through Sunday, before lifting back to the north on Monday. It will be hot and largely dry this weekend. There is a low chance for showers and storms across SE GA Saturday and Sunday due to the proximity of the frontal zone, and upper waves. The high pressure ridge will sink further to the south southeast early next week, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will move across the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing potential for a round of showers and thunderstorms. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 354 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Daily Record High Temperatures through Wednesday at our designated climate sites: Sat 5/17 Sun 5/18 Mon 5/19 Tues 5/20 Wed 5/21 -------------------------------------------------- Jacksonville 96/1995 96/1899 97/1960 99/1962 99/1938 Gainesville 96/1915 97/1930 99/1899 97/1938 100/1938 Alma, GA 94/2001 95/2001 97/1960 99/1962 97/1962 Craig Airport 93/2001 93/2001 92/2006 97/2006 98/2006 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 68 93 69 / 40 20 10 0 SSI 90 72 89 73 / 20 20 0 0 JAX 97 68 97 70 / 10 10 0 0 SGJ 94 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 95 65 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 93 67 95 69 / 0 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ ####018005828#### FXUS64 KMOB 180615 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 115 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 A lobe of shortwave energy swept around the base of a closed upper low passing north of the Southeast earlier today, with a weak cold front having moved south over the Southeast in response. Looking at dewpoints, the boundary either lies north of I-20, or looking at surface temperatures, a boundary lies just north of Highway 84. The current satellite and radar loops show a developed storm near Jackson, MS at 3pm. Will need to monitor later this afternoon into the evening hours, depending on which boundary the storms focus on. Guidance is advertising MLCapes rebounding into the 2000-2500J/kg range along and north of Highway 84, with DCapes in the 800-1100J/kg range and EBWD shear to around 40kts over the same area. Enough for strong to marginally severe storms, with strong winds the primary threat. Even with the upper ridge weakening over the forecast area and nearby this afternoon, mid level lapse rates remain low enough to limit hail development. Model soundings show a generally linear profile, with little directional shear, so am not expecting any organized rotating storms. With storm movement in a generally easterly direction, overrunning of any surface boundary is generally not expected, but if a local surge from a storm moves a portion of the southern boundary south enough, local water issues become a possibility, albeit small one. Will need to monitor the late afternoon and early evening hours for the rowdy storms. For Sunday, guidance is advertising pretty much the same severe parameters, but with a lack of upper initiator. The beginning of the re-building of an upper ridge over the Southeast will help to deflect any shortwave energy northward. For the forecast area, this places any development to areas along the northern border of the forecast area and north. Upper level high pressure remains in control through the Near Term, with temperatures remaining well above seasonal norms. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected this afternoon and again Sunday, with mid 80s along the coast. Low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s inland from the coast, mid to upper 70s along the coast. Heat Indices are still expected to top out in the 89-103 degree range this afternoon, with 95-100 expected Sunday. A Low Risk of Rip Currents is expected into the coming week. /16 An upper trof progresses across the central states and into the northeast states Monday into Wednesday, after which the upper trof amplifies to encompass much of the eastern states before slowly beginning to move off into the western Atlantic on Saturday. A surface low associated with the upper trof is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area on Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected for the area through Tuesday, with the exception of a small chance of rain for a portion of Choctaw county Tuesday afternoon. Slight chance to chance pops follow for Tuesday night over interior areas, then have stayed with chance pops areawide for Wednesday as the front approaches and then moves through the area. Progressively drier and cooler air flows into the region through Thursday night in the wake of the front, then deep layer moisture begins to improve on Saturday. Dry conditions are expected for the forecast area Thursday and Friday, and continue for Saturday as well as while deep layer moisture will be improving by that point, this does not look sufficient to support precipitation. Highs on Monday and Tuesday range from the lower 90s inland to the mid 80s at the immediate coast, then trend cooler into Thursday to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night range from the upper 60s to mid 70s then trend cooler by Thursday night to range from the lower 50s well inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Temperatures then moderate during the remainder of the period, with lows Friday night ranging from the mid 50s well inland to the mid 60s at the coast, and highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s. A low risk of rip currents on Monday become a moderate risk for Tuesday and Wednesday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 VFR conditions will temporarily give way to MVFR ceilings and maybe some patchy fog north of I-10. Ceilings should quickly return to VFR during the day and persist through the remainder of the forecast. Winds will be out of the south around 10 knots. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 A light to at times moderate onshore flow is expected through the forecast. Outside of any thunderstorms, no issues are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 88 71 88 73 88 73 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 0 Pensacola 85 73 86 75 86 77 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 10 Destin 85 74 86 76 86 78 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 10 Evergreen 93 67 93 69 92 70 89 59 / 10 0 0 0 0 20 40 10 Waynesboro 92 68 92 71 92 69 87 59 / 10 0 0 0 10 30 30 0 Camden 91 68 91 69 92 70 86 58 / 20 0 0 0 10 30 30 10 Crestview 91 67 91 68 90 72 89 60 / 10 0 0 0 0 10 40 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob