####018007652#### FXUS61 KCLE 170046 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 846 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will track northeast across the Great Lakes tonight, extending a cold front east through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build across the region on Sunday and persist into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Last remaining portion of the first round of thunderstorms is exiting Crawford County, PA, allowing for a lull in the action across the forecast area. Awaiting convection approaching the state line where active warnings are ongoing and a wind gust of 57 kts was measured at Fort Wayne. Relevant Portions of the Previous Discussion... Attention then turns towards this evening, where current satellite imagery reveals a strong convective complex taking shape across eastern MO and southwest IL this afternoon. The environment ahead of this complex is extremely favorable for damaging wind gusts, with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Hires models differ on if this complex can sustain its strength as it continues northeast into the Lower Great Lakes region by later this evening. If it does, anticipate damaging wind gusts to arrive across the I-75 corridor by around 9 PM, with perhaps some isolated instances of significant wind gusts exceeding 70 mph possible. This complex should weaken as it moves east and encounters a less favorable environment near the I-71/77 corridors by around 11 PM to midnight. A cold front will sweep east through the area Saturday morning and afternoon, ushering in a significant pattern change across the region. Could see some redevelopment along the cold front, particularly along and east of the I-77 corridor early Saturday afternoon, though not anticipating any severe storms at this time. It may feel a bit blustery Saturday afternoon behind the front, with temperatures falling into the low 60s and westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Drier air will continue to filter into the region Sunday as the closed mid/upper low drifts east through the New England states allowing strong surface high pressure centered near Hudson Bay to build ridging southward into the Lower Great Lakes. A few isolated showers and overcast skies could linger in far NE Ohio and NW PA Sunday morning before the increased ridging allows for mostly sunny and dry conditions areawide by afternoon. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be unseasonably cool as mid/upper troughing remains across the Great Lakes, with highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s in far NE Ohio and NW PA and mid 60s to around 70 elsewhere. The surface ridge and trough aloft will continue through Monday, so unfortunately for those wanting a warm up, temperatures will remain cool for awhile. Highs Monday are only expected to reach the upper 50s to low 60s again in far NE Ohio and NW PA and low to mid 60s elsewhere. Lows Sunday night will dip into the mid 40s to low 50s, with more widespread 40s possible Monday night depending on how quickly clouds and scattered showers can start to creep northeastward ahead of another closed low in the Mid Mississippi Valley. Patchy frost is possible in NW PA Monday night where skies should remain clear longer, so this will need to be monitored. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The big story of the extended will be a continuation of below normal temperatures as an increasingly amplified pattern develops across North America, characterized by strengthening west coast mid/upper ridging and deepening central and eastern U.S. mid/upper troughing. This will keep temperatures a solid 10-15 degrees below normal Tuesday through Friday, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s and lows in the 40s. The cool pattern will continue beyond the 7-day forecast into late May. The precipitation forecast Tuesday through the end of the week is a little more uncertain due to timing uncertainties with the aforementioned Mid Mississippi Valley closed low ejecting across the Ohio Valley region. As mid/upper shortwave energy drops through the Great Lakes Monday night through Wednesday and deepens the longwave trough, the closed low will attempt to phase with the trough. This will eventually result in a deep closed low and cold pool aloft pinwheeling overhead late in the week, but how and when it phases will determine the timing and track of the best moisture and forcing. The overall message is that rain chances will increase Tuesday into Wednesday, with decent coverage of showers possible mid to late week making things cool and unsettled. Not the best news as Memorial Day Weekend approaches. && .AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... The airspace is VFR between two rounds of convection. The next round of convection continues east across Indiana and into western Ohio. The complex is a touch further south than previously forecasted and may end up missing the KTOL area. Otherwise, expect storms to move through the area over the next several hours. KFDY and KMFD will have the greatest impact with the potential for non-VFR and gusty winds with line of TS. Storms will continue toward the other terminals this evening but the impact should be lessened as the line weakens tonight. Storms will clear out overnight and low VFR ceilings will remain in the region. Another round of rain and storms could impact NE OH/NW PA on Saturday afternoon before the system fully exits the region. Winds on Saturday will be gusty out of the west with 30 KT gusts possible. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings across the eastern half of the area on Sunday. Mainly VFR is expected Monday and Tuesday. Non-VFR is likely to return on Wednesday in widespread showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Thunderstorms could bring locally higher winds and waves on Lake Erie this evening and tonight, but otherwise, the next period of elevated winds and waves will come Saturday into Sunday as strong cold air advection encourages good mixing. SW winds of 10-20 knots tonight will turn WSW behind a cold front Saturday morning and increase to 15-25 knots. This will build waves of 3 to 5 feet, so issued Small Craft Advisories starting Saturday morning. The winds and waves will gradually subside Saturday night, but it will take until Sunday morning to end in the central and eastern basins, so ran the advisories longer there. Winds will turn NW and decrease to 5-10 knots Sunday afternoon then N at 5-15 knots Sunday night and Monday. A period of strong NE winds of 15-25 knots is possible Monday night through midweek as a slow moving closed low approaches from the Mid Mississippi Valley and an upper level trough deepens across the Great Lakes. This will likely require another round of Small Craft Advisories. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>145. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ146-147. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ148-149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn/Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Garuckas LONG TERM...Garuckas AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Garuckas ####018007296#### FXUS66 KLOX 170047 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 547 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...16/125 PM. Strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer will bring cool weather through Saturday. Gusty onshore winds are expected in the Antelope Valley during the afternoon and evening. Night through morning drizzle or light rain is possible Saturday. A warming trend will be will begin Sunday and continue through next week as high pressure develops. Temperatures more typical of the summer season are likely away from the coast for the latter half of next week. && .SHORT TERM (FRI-MON)...16/159 PM. An approaching upper level trough is increasing onshore flow and cooling the air mass as well. Highs today cooled 3-6 degrees across most of the area with the exception of interior SLO County, the higher mountains, and the Antelope valley where temperatures warmed by 2-4 degrees. The trough will continue to deepen across California resulting in a higher marine layer tonight, likely up to around 4000 feet, and possibly even some patchy drizzle or very light rain, especially near the south facing coastal slopes. Clearing will slower Saturday and some coast and valley areas may remain cloudy much of the day. There's also a chance of a reverse clearing pattern which would result in more clearing near the coast than inland areas. Temperatures will likely stay in the 60s in most areas, which would be 5-15 degrees below normal. Gusty southwest winds are expected across the Antelope Valley in the afternoon and evening and gusty north to northwest winds are expected across southwest Santa Barbara County. The trough is expected to shift east into the Rockies Sunday as a high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific moves closer to the coast. A moderate offshore gradient trend will develop leading to 5-10 degrees of warming most areas with either minimal or earlier clearing marine layer. Another round of gusty Sundowner winds expected across southern Santa Barbara County is expected later Sunday afternoon and evening, and this time including eastern Santa Ynez as winds aloft start veer to the north and even slightly northeast. The warming trend will continue Monday with some additional offshore trends leading to some morning northeast winds across the hills and mountains and possibly some of the valleys as well. Expecting widespread warming trends of 5-10 degrees over Sunday and some valley areas as much as 15 degrees warmer, getting close to 90 degrees, including interior SLO County and the western San Fernando Valley. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...16/225 PM. Next week is going to be a hot one and lasting at least two days longer than the previous heat wave. Highs are expecting to be fairly similar to the last heat wave, topping out in the low 100s in the warmer valleys Tuesday through, low 90s in Downtown LA, and 80s across most other areas except the beaches. There may still be a lingering shallow marine layer Monday morning across coastal LA County resulting in some dense fog but that should clear fairly quickly. If the forecast remains on track, and right now confidence is high, another round of heat advisories will be needed for the coastal valleys and possibly even parts of the interior coastal plain. Onshore flow will start to return Thursday that will begin a slow cooling trend into next weekend. && .AVIATION...17/0046Z. At 00Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was around 15 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2300 feet with a temperature of 17 degrees Celsius. High confidence in TAFs for KWJF and KPMD. Moderate confidence in TAFs for remaining sites where flight category changes may be off by 2 hours and 1 category. There is a 30-50 percent chance of only brief to no return to VFR at coastal sites from SBA and south including KLAX. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance for an east wind component of 8 kts between 10Z and 18Z. Best chances between 13Z and 17Z. KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Return of cigs may be off +/- 2 hours, and there is a 20% chance for cigs 007-009. && .MARINE...16/156 PM. For the Outer Waters through Tuesday, high confidence in combination of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. For Saturday afternoon through Sunday night, there is a 60-70% chance of Gale force winds. Gales look to be strongest and most widespread Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night. There may be a lull in the winds Sunday morning. Seas will reach 12-14 feet. Rough, short period seas will exist into at least Monday. For the Inner Waters through Sunday night, high confidence in SCA level winds, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 50-60% chance of Gale force winds Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening, with a lull in the winds likely late Saturday through Sunday morning. Another Gale Warning is likely for Sunday afternoon and evening. For Monday through Tuesday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds continuing. Seas will reach 10-12 feet. Rough, short period seas will exist into Monday. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception through Saturday morning, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Saturday afternoon through Sunday night, high confidence in SCA level winds focused mostly through the Santa Barbara and western sections of the southern Inner Waters. Additionally, there is a 50% chance of Gale force winds across the Santa Barbara Channel Saturday evening through Saturday night. There will be a relative lull in the winds overnight, then another Gale Warning is likely (50-60% chance) for the Santa Barbara Channel Sunday afternoon into late night. Seas may approach 8 feet with short periods due to the wind. For Monday through Tuesday, moderate confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 10 AM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon to 6 PM PDT Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 6 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Munroe MARINE...Lewis SYNOPSIS...MW/Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox ####018008228#### FXUS61 KLWX 170049 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 849 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front is expected to lift through and to the northeast of the region today into late afternoon. A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front pushing through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... After the round of severe wx this afternoon and evening, attention turns to the next possible round of severe wx overnight. Let me preface this with there continues to be uncertainties with how strong any storms may be as they move into the area during the night. Latest radar imagery shows severe and tornado warned storms across the Ohio Valley. Most model guidance has these congealing into several linear features that eventually move eastward. Since we won't have our daytime heating, the severity could be diminished some, but the humidity, nearby trough, approaching cold front on Saturday could be enough to make it interesting in terms of severe elements overnight. Will continue to evolve latest trends. Key message now, prepare for the potential for watches and/or warnings overnight should they be needed. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will approach and push across the region early in the day Saturday. There had previously been a risk for severe weather during the first half of the day on Saturday. However, this threat has diminished significantly today. Thinking is that the multiple rounds of convection, especially the overnight round (severe or not) should help to kick out any lingering outflow boundaries from the region. The air mass will not have time to reload before the fropa during the morning, thus thinking any coverage of showers/storms will be very limited. Best chance for any severe weather looks to be off to our south and east, where the fropa won't occur until early-mid afternoon. High temperatures will remain warm with highs in the middle to upper 80s Saturday. The big difference will be a 10+ degree dew point drop, so it will be much less humid. Once the front pushes through the region on Saturday, winds pick up substantially out of the W, then WNW. Wind Advisories will be issued shortly for the high ridges along the Allegheny Front through Saturday afternoon. Winds remain elevated Saturday night into Sunday as well, but the extent of the Wind Advisory is just a bit uncertain at this time. It may need to be extended further in time, but later shifts can re-evaluate that threat. Drier and cooler air will filter in during this window. Highs Sunday will be more likely in the middle 70s and seasonable for mid-May. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The synoptic pattern will remain on the amplified side heading into next week. To start off the work week, the initial system that tracked through the Great Lakes over the weekend will have relocated to coastal New England. At the same time, an anomalous upper ridge centered over the Gulf of America will build northward as the next system sets up over the central U.S. This overall configuration will support a quiet start to the week. It is not until the influence of the upstream trough that a pattern shift ensues. At this point, Wednesday will act as that day of transition which ushers in a more unsettled pattern. Eventually this upper trough passes overhead toward the Thursday into Friday time period next week. The start of the work week will feature the mildest temperatures of the extended forecast period. Multi-ensemble forecast trends show the downtick in temperatures, particularly in the Tuesday through Friday timeframe. While starting off in the mid 70s to low 80s underneath mostly sunny skies, winds shift to mainly easterly leading to an increase in cloud cover by Tuesday. By Wednesday, highs fall down into the mid 60s to low 70s with rain looking likely through the day. Given precipitable water values possibly into the 1.25 to 1.50 inch range, there could easily be some heavy rain signatures. With a number of locations receiving flooding rains earlier this week, there could be some risk of additional flooding given such antecedent conditions in place. Temperatures remain below average through the remainder of the work week as the upper trough passes through. Thursday would present a chance for some residual showers before improvements occur by Friday. This would offer a return to some sunshine before the conclusion of the work week. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Another round of thunderstorms could arrive late tonight into Saturday morning. This round has the most uncertainty at this point. An MCS moving in from the Ohio Valley may make it into our region late this evening into tonight night. This could be yet another risk for damaging wind gusts, but the timing and certainty of occurrence is still just not quite there yet. So, will hopefully have more details as this moves into the TAF period. There may be a few storms ahead of a frontal passage on Saturday as well, which could also contain gusty winds, but think this will be east of any of our terminals. Once the front passes though, winds increase substantially out of the W at around 20 to 30 knots. This could continue into Sunday, albeit a touch lighter. VFR conditions are expected Sunday into the start of next week as high pressure maintains control across the region. VFR conditions are likely on Monday and Tuesday in response to high pressure across the region. Initial winds will be northwesterly with afternoon gusts to around 20 knots. By Tuesday, expect a shift to northerlies and eventually over to north-northeasterlies by later in the day. Moving to an onshore flow regime may introduce additional clouds into the night. This leads to an unsettled pattern on Wednesday with lengthy restrictions expected. Periods of rain are expected with easterlies gusting to around 15 to 20 knots. && .MARINE... Another chance for severe weather looks to push through late tonight through early Saturday. Timing and location of yet another MCS approaching from the west is still very uncertain, but conditions will be favorable for damaging wind gusts if this does traverse the mountains and make it to the waters. SMWs would likely also be needed if this feature tracks directly over our area. There may be a few storms ahead of a frontal passage on Saturday as well, which could also contain gusty winds. This should push through rather early on in the day, giving way to drier and windy conditions in its wake. Severe threat with this round has decreased greatly, but best chance would be in the central/southern Chesapeake Bay waters. SCA conditions likely on Saturday and Sunday as winds gust around 20-25 knots across all the waters. High pressure settles overhead Sunday night into Monday, bringing sub-SCA winds. There may be a brief window of advisory-caliber winds on Monday morning given breezy northwesterlies. Through the day, some occasional upticks are possible before gradients weaken in response to high pressure building to the north. Winds turn more north to easterly on Tuesday ahead of the next weather maker. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ008. VA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ503. WV...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ501-505. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLW NEAR TERM...CJL/CPB SHORT TERM...CJL LONG TERM...BRO AVIATION...BRO/CJL/CPB MARINE...BRO/CJL/CPB ####018005116#### FXAK68 PAFC 170049 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 449 PM AKDT Fri May 16 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... The remnants of a trough lay anchored over the Southcentral region, promoting a weak unsettled pattern. The system is keeping the moisture over the region with just enough lift for rain in some locations. Showers are possible across Southcentral given the weak forcing provided by the weak low, however widespread higher level clouds are limiting abundant surface heating. An upper level wave shifting from the Alaska Range into the northern Copper River Basin this afternoon into the overnight hours may provide an opportunity for localized light rain. This is a weak feature and many of the models are not expecting much rain with it, however, the setup is reasonable for some precipitation to develop along it. As we head into the weekend, the pattern does not change much. Weak flow aloft and residual moisture will keep the clouds around and whether it is some afternoon heating or an upper level wave, there will be some showers that develop at times. The remnants of this system are no longer organized; however, showers could be generally expected along the coast and mountain foothills. Showers built along foothills may move steadily into valleys or surrounding areas given the overall weak flow. Relatively gusty winds out of Turnagain Arm are expected to build Saturday afternoon, potentially persisting through Sunday afternoon. -CL && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... A weakening surface low off of the Kuskokwim Delta coast and its broad trough axis extending across the southern Bering continues to promote a widespread area of showers and low stratus across the Bering. This system will continue to weaken and move inland as a ridge builds in over the Bering from the west. Minimal rain chances and a low stratus deck is expected across Southwest Alaska through Saturday, with the greatest chance for precipitation coming in the mountains and the Kuskokwim Valley. Further west, a weakening low pressure system and its associated front moves across the western Aleutians for Saturday morning into Saturday night, giving the area a short window of rain and gusty winds. The front is expected to fall apart by early Sunday morning as the ridge in the Bering quickly steers the low south into the North Pacific. Attention then shifts to the end of the short term period where a more impressive Kamchatka low pressure system approaches the western Bering. Heavier precipitation and the potential for gale-force winds accompanying this low is expected for the western Aleutians by Monday afternoon into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)... The broad upper level trough stretches from Siberia across the Bering Sea and Mainland Alaska. It will be undergoing significant changes to line up over Western Alaska through the forecast period. In the West, a ridge builds over the Aleutians from the North Pacific, changing the tracks of shortwaves slipping through the pattern. A weaker ridge builds into the Eastern Interior through the week. Model guidance with mostly ECMWF and GFS remains in decent agreement during the changes, with a bit less uncertainty aligned with the smaller details through Friday. Scattered showers continue over most of the Southern Interior. A slight chance of more convective activity is possible in the warmest zones in Eastern Alaska. The main weather producers will be marching over the Southern and Western portions of the state through Friday. A well developed Central Kamchatka surface low and front pushes across the Western Aleutians and Bering. Moderate rain and some locally gusty offshore winds ride with the frontal passage before diminishing across the Eastern Aleutians late Wednesday. A second developed North Pacific low and front approaches the Western Aleutians for Wednesday. Widespread rain with the front sweeps across the Aleutians and Bering before the system recurves towards the Alaska Peninsula and North Pacific for friday. A strong third low and front awaits in the wings for the Western parts of the state for the following weekend. - Kutz && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF period along with light winds. Westerly winds this afternoon and evening will become more southerly overnight. Ceilings are also expected to lower overnight, with MVFR ceilings possible by early Saturday morning along with a chance for very light rain. Any lower clouds early Saturday morning should lift by late morning. Light winds will then increase out of the south with gusts around 20 kt possible by Saturday afternoon. && $$