####018003493#### FXUS63 KICT 151900 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 200 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and dry conditions expected through the end of the week. - An active weather pattern is likely to emerge this weekend, bringing multiple rain and severe storm chances to the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates strong southwest flow aloft over the Central and Southern Plains as a shortwave lifts northeast. At the surface, a surface low centered over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa continues to track to the northeast, while the associated surface trough extends through western Missouri on south into portions of Oklahoma and east Texas. Westerly winds and relatively cooler temperatures (though still roughly 5-10 degrees above normal) have followed in the wake of this boundary. Similar temperatures are expected to continue into next week. The focus for the period continues to be the arrival of several opportunities for meaningful precipitation and strong-to-severe thunderstorms beginning Saturday night and lasting through Tuesday. LATE SATURDAY EVENING THRU SUNDAY MORNING: Strong WAA rooted around 850 mb is progged to commence late Saturday into Sunday morning in response to a strengthening LLJ. This feature will promote the development of showers and storms, and with elevated CAPE up to 1500 J/kg and a modest shear profile, severe hail continues to be the primary threat with the stronger storms that manage to develop. Current guidance and trends suggest the best coverage primarily east of I-135. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: A surface low is expected to track through the High Plains throughout Sunday afternoon ahead of an upper wave approaching from the Four Corners region. The associated dryline - which most models prog to setup over west/central Kansas - will provide the potential for storm development during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Details remain a bit unclear at this time due to the potential for warm sector moisture advection inhibiting convective initiation. However, should a storm develop, abundant instability (> 2000 J/kg) and impressive hodographs indicate the potential for supercells capable of all hazards heading into the evening. MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU THURSDAY: The highest potential for severe weather continues to be Monday afternoon and evening, where most models continue to depict a sharp dryline setting up over central Kansas. Once again, ample instability and shear appear to be in play for severe storms, and models now hint at further potential for showers and storms Tuesday afternoon as a secondary shortwave encroaches on the area. As such, the overall pattern appears to be active heading into the beginning of next week, though specifics continue to be unclear this far out in the forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Westerly winds will gust up to 20-25 kts this afternoon, diminishing around sunset. Northwesterly winds will pick back up Friday morning around 15z. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...GC ####018003503#### FXUS62 KKEY 151902 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 302 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Composite satellite imagery is highlighting anticyclonic (clockwise) gyres encompassing the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters. In the low-level visible channels, The Florida Keys remain in the east to southeast return flow around a surface high pressure system centered in the central North Atlantic. Meanwhile aloft, water vapor imagery channels depict a broad ridge extending from the Yucatan Peninsula, northward to the Gulf coast, then eastward towards the Bahamas. The reflection of these features onto our sensible weather is very warm and dry conditions. Temperatures at this early afternoon hour are in the mid to upper 80s. When combined with dew points in the lower to mid 70s, heat indices are topping 90F at most island communities. KBYX radar is void of any meteorological echo returns across the entire forecast area. The aforementioned surface and mid- and upper-level features will remain firmly planted over the next several days. In fact, most ensemble global numerical weather prediction guidance has the expansive ridge aloft strengthening, which via adiabatic sinking, may nudge temperatures upwards another couple of degrees by this weekend, with lows near 80F, and highs well into the upper 80s. Forecast soundings through early next week indicate a low- level backed profile, along with scant boundary layer moisture. Based on this, and the dominance of the ridging aloft, it seems prudent to keep our forecast dry through at least Tuesday, before nudging towards climatological PoPs thereafter (around 10%). For those looking for some relief from the late Spring heat and perhaps a little wet weather, there is at least some ensemble member support of a late-season frontal boundary flirting with the Keys by the middle to latter part of next week. The lack of baroclinicity this late in the season this far south often limits these passages locally, but at least something to have a brief glimmer of hope about at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure parked in the central North Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern for the next several days across the Keys coastal waters. This will result in light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes along with near-nil shower chances. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for EYW and MTH through the 18Z TAF period. Overwhelming amounts of dry air will keep shower coverage near nil. Near surface winds will remain to east southeasterlies at 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 88 79 88 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest ####018006431#### FXUS61 KCAR 151902 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 302 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system approaches from the north this evening, then settles across northern Maine late tonight and Friday. Another low pressure system moves in from the west Saturday through Sunday, then slowly exits to the east on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... This Afternoon... Another very warm day over the north, with temperatures cooler the closer to the coast you go thanks to an onshore breeze. The far north is in the low 80s, with mid to upper 70s central areas, and 60s to low 70s immediate coast. It's a bit stickier today with dewpoints up around 60 Downeast and upper 40s to 50s other areas. There is light SW flow aloft and just enough instability to allow a few showers and perhaps a storm to develop from Greenville to the North Woods. Nothing remotely impressive though. Partly to mostly cloudy skies. Some low clouds/fog lurking over the waters, but otherwise clouds are mid and high level. There is a SW breeze. Tonight... Isolated to scattered shower/storm activity may be a bit slow to dissipate this evening over the north thanks to backdoor cold front approaching from the north, allowing for some low-level convergence over central/northern Aroostook just ahead of the front. Thus, kept 40 PoPs mainly into the evening. Dry elsewhere tonight. Mild with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Fog this evening spreads north into the waters and onshore, gradually marching north through the night as fog or perhaps just low clouds further inland. Fog could be dense along the coast, and perhaps up to Bangor as well. Friday... Backdoor cold front slides south/southwest and gets hung up a bit along the central highlands. Looks much cooler over eastern portions of the area behind the backdoor cold front, and undercut guidance in this area based on usual biases. Going for highs in the low 60s over Eastern Aroostook, ranging to the low to mid 70s over western portions of the area. Abundant low clouds Friday especially along/east of the backdoor cold front. Concern Friday of some slow-moving showers/storms with heavy downpours and a threat of localized flash flooding. Most likely this would occur along/just west of the backdoor cold front, from the central highlands and Moosehead Lake into the North Woods. Airmass is fairly moist, and with the virtually zero storm motion, some CAMs are producing very locally over 6 inches of rain. Going to highlight this in hazardous weather outlook and added heavy downpours to the grids. Again, the area with this threat is fairly small and appears limited to around the central highlands and Moosehead Lake into the western North Woods. Other places could get a shower, but nothing significant. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday night...The occluded front will gradually move into the region. Models indicate CAD setting in north of the Central Highlands. This should keep higher rainfall amounts to the western border. Temps should be in the 50s across the area. Saturday...The triple point of the occlusion should start to move closer to the area from the SW. Extended models are in fairly good agreement with the timing and track of the system, so increased rain chances across the south. The CAD should stick around most of the day, keeping temps in the upper 50s in the north and low 50s in the south. Saturday night...The triple point will slowly progress across the area. Models indicate possible heavier bands of rain in the north, though chances will reduce with the center of the triple point moving over the region. Sunday...Rain should continue throughout the day as the new center of the low settles over the region. Cloudy skies and the cooler NW airmass should keep temps in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The large vertically stacked upper level trof will move off to the E by the beginning of next week. This should bring chances of rain through until Tuesday night. Model show uncertainty on if/when the rain will clear out. The GFS and Euro show light rain showers while the CmC shows little to no rain. Decided to go with slight chance. Another low pressure system could move in by the weekend, but models are inconsistent buy this time. Temps show a consistent cooling trend with up to 10 degrees cooler than normal for daytime highs. Low temps have a potential of reaching to frost levels in the north, but unsure with the unknown tracks of the next system. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Tonight... VFR conditions this afternoon will be replaced with IFR from south to north this evening and overnight. BGR/BHB likely to get LIFR from fog and low clouds, and this will begin shortly after sunset. The low clouds make it up to Aroostook terminals after midnight. A few thunderstorms possible around GNR late this afternoon. Light south breeze tonight. Friday... Gradual improvement over Downeast terminals such as BHB/BGR, with possible MVFR or low VFR toward afternoon mainly inland from the immediate coast such as at BGR. Further north from MLT/HUL north, IFR may be replaced by MVFR toward late morning, but it is doubtful that it will improve to VFR during the afternoon. Variable winds less than 10 kts. Localized thunderstorms mainly around GNR Friday afternoon. SHORT TERM: Fri night - Mon: MVFR with occasional IFR in showers. Brief LIFR fog possible at coastal terminals through Sat. Steadier rain across all terminals Sat night. SE winds 5 to 10 kts shifting N to NW Sun into Mon. Winds could increase to 10 to 15 kts Mon afternoon. Tues...Mainly MVFR in rain showers. N winds 10-15 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Below small craft, with areas of fog tonight and Friday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions for all waters through Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Foisy Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...Foisy/LaFlash Marine...Foisy/LaFlash ####018002317#### FXUS63 KDDC 151902 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 202 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather tonight - Dry and pleasant Friday - Chance of storms mainly east weekend onward && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Quiet weather is expected tonight. Westerly to northwesterly winds will continue through the overnight period. A weak wave moving through might provide northern Kansas with some cloud cover, but that is about exciting as it will get. Lows tonight will be near normal with values 40s northwest to 50s southeast. The quiet weather pattern will continue for Friday. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph are expected in the wake of a fropa. Highs tomorrow should range from the 70s northwest to the 80s southeast. By Saturday in Sunday, a large upper level trof will carve out west of the FA. This will allow for the warm sector to return northward with moisture advection and higher dewpoints. A dryline will eventually set up across the FA over the weekend. The exact position of this dryline is still unclear. The dryline will set the stage for storms to develop on. Should storms develop, they will likely be severe given the ample instability and bulk shear that should be in place. Have the highest confidence of storms across the eastern zones, which is a seasonably favored position of the dryline for this time of year. Beyond the weekend, the next business week is looking to feature more unsettled weather as a large upper level system impacts the plains for the first half of the week. There is some disagreement in both the deterministic models as well as their ensemble counterparts regarding this system. Will continue with the NBM pops and temps given this uncertainty in the long term period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 VFR is expected through TAF pd. Winds will be SW to NW 5-15 kt today and tonight. A fropa is expected tomorrow morning across the terminals with NW winds 15-20 with gusts around 25 kt in its wake. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden ####018007058#### FXCA62 TJSJ 151903 AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 303 PM AST Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * A strong upper level trough west of the region will continue to approach the local area through at least Saturday. Promoting a wet and unstable weather pattern, and heightening the risk of flooding across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, especially on Friday and Saturday. * Moderate to locally fresh winds will maintain choppy seas through at least Friday, and a moderate risk of rip currents will persist mainly across the northern beaches of Puerto Rico. * A weak Saharan Air layer is expected to promote hazy conditions late in the weekend. However, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop each afternoon along the Cordillera Central. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday... At least through Saturday, both GFS and ECMWF global models have a similar solution, with a deep layered trough west of the area slowly approaching the islands. This will promote unstable and favorable conditions for shower and thunderstorm development across the local waters, and enhancing the diurnal convective cycle each afternoon. A surface high pressure northeast of the area will continue to move further into the central Atlantic during the next few days, and breezy trades are expected to continue through at least Friday. Between Friday and Saturday, an induced surface trough, veering winds, and sufficient moisture content will further increase the potential for strong thunderstorms across the area. Therefore, these storms can produce frequent lightning and strong gusty winds. In terms of moisture content, models suggest normal to above normal precipitable content across the area. However, a Saharan Air Layer will bring minor concentrations of Saharan dust during the weekend and hazy conditions will be present across the USVI and PR. This could decrease the potential for widespread area coverage of rainfall activity, however, we are still leaning into a wetter forecast during the short term period. Please refer to the hydro section below. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday... ...From Prev Discussion... Despite recent model guidance introducing a few notable changes, a dynamic interplay between upper-level and surface features will continue to drive periods of marginal instability and variable winds across the northeastern Caribbean. A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) Low and its associated surface-induced trough will dominate on Sunday, with its divergent side supporting cooler-than-normal 500 mb temperatures and a weakened trade wind inversion, favorable for deep convection. As the TUTT Low lifts northeastward, a large upper-level trough digging into the western Atlantic will reinforce this pattern, while a developing mid- level ridge emerges far to the west. At the surface, the induced trough will continue to disrupt the trade wind flow, even after detaching from its parent feature, maintaining lighter, more variable winds through the period. Meanwhile, a broad surface high over the central North Atlantic and a weaker high near the Bahamas will help trap tropical moisture across the region. On Sunday, precipitable water values may reach up to 2.0 inches. As the weak high lifts northeastward and pushes the moisture southeastward, a gradual drying trend is anticipated, with a return of deeper moisture expected by midweek as strengthening east-southeasterly winds reestablish. During this period, Puerto Rico will experience fluctuating moisture levels and variable wind patterns early on, while generally moist and breezy conditions are expected to persist longer over Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Despite these variations, the overall moist and marginally unstable environment will enhance shower and thunderstorm development, particularly during the afternoon. Slackened winds will reduce ventilation, allowing convective cells to linger longer and increasing the risk of locally heavy rainfall and flooding. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Mainly VFR conds expected. However, tempo MVFR to brief IFR expected at TJBQ thru 15/22z. The 15/12z TJSJ sounding indicated ESE winds up to 22 kt blo 2000 ft. SHRA/TSRA expected to increase on Friday morning across the local waters, causing mostly -RA/VCTS before 16/15z across the area terminals. Minor concentrations of Saharan dust may cause HZ late in fcst cycle, but VSBY should remain P6SM, except in areas of SHRA/TSRA. && .HYDROLOGY... Due to normal to above normal moisture content and increasing instability associated with an upper-level trough, the risk of flooding across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands is increasing for Friday and Saturday. The heaviest rainfall is currently expected across the northwestern, central and eastern sections of Puerto Rico, where 2 to 4 inches of rain are likely, with locally higher amounts possible. Meanwhile, across Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, anywhere between 1 and 3 inches are likely, however, it all depends on where the thunderstorms develop and if they drift over land areas. Saturated soils and elevated river levels will enhance the threat of urban and flash flooding, river flooding, and mudslides, particularly across the mountain ranges of Puerto Rico. For additional details, refer to the Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU). && .MARINE... A broad surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will continue promoting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds through Friday night. Therefore, small craft should continue to exercise caution. A surface trough will gradually weaken winds over the weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, a deep trough west of the area will bring an unsettled weather pattern with a high chance of thunderstorm development through at least Saturday, leading to locally higher winds and seas. Also, hazy conditions are expected during the weekend due to Saharan dust. && .BEACH FORECAST... Life-threatening rip currents are possible along most northern, southern, and eastern exposed beaches of the islands through Friday afternoon. The risk will likely diminish this weekend as winds ease gradually. For more information, please refer to the latest Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU). Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase into the weekend as the region transitions back to a wet and unstable weather pattern. Reminder: Seek shelter and leave the water or beach immediately at the first sign of thunder or lightning. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ DSR/MNG ####018010024#### FXUS61 KAKQ 151903 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 303 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today. Conditions turn warm, with summerlike heat and humidity Friday and Saturday, and mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms possible ahead of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 1045 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms develop late this afternoon and evening. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds, though a tornado or two is also possible. The upper level low over the Great Lakes region has opened up as a trough over the Mid- Atlantic region. The trough axis will pivot NE of the area as ridging builds across the OH/TN Valley and heights begin to rise across the Carolinas and Mid- Atlantic. Still, NW flow aloft (35- 40 kt at 500 mb) will keep 35-40 kt of effective shear blanketed over the area. A rather nebulous sfc pattern prevails with any prominent frontal features displaced well W of the region. By the late afternoon and evening hours, model guidance shows some semblance of a sfc trough developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Combined with weak/residual upstream disturbances moving in from the W, this could be enough of a trigger for to initiate convection, even with the less- than- favorable forcing aloft. Convection aside, the mesoscale environment appears supportive of strong updrafts and supercells, with very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles on various forecast soundings. Dew points in the 60s to around 70 F yields around 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE by the afternoon (highest W/SW), perhaps even increasing into the evening as a plume of steeper mid- level lapse rates move overhead. The 00z suite of CAMS (minus the hi- res NAM) painted a higher-end potential, with several supercells developing across the W and NW, moving SE through the evening into central/SE VA and NE NC. Still, questions remain regarding coverage and, for this reason, am not confident to go higher than 30-50% PoPs for the area. The new Day 1 SPC outlook introduces a Level 2 out of 5 (Slight) risk across the Piedmont into NE NC, including the Richmond metro and Tri-Cities. A marginal risk encompasses the rest of the area along the Chesapeake Bay, with just a general thunder risk on the Eastern Shore. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, though a tornado or two is also possible given the potential supercell storm mode and some increased low-level wind shear in the evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall is also likely in any storm and given we've had a wet past few days, WPC also has expanded the Marginal risk for heavy rainfall into most our CWA. Storms potentially linger through the 10 PM-1 AM timeframe tonight, gradually tapering off afterwards as they move E-SE. A warmer day is ahead given mostly to partly sunny skies and highs top out in the low-mid 80s for most of the area. Mild tonight with lows in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Summer-like temperatures and humidity expected Friday and Saturday. - Isolated to scattered storms possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which could be strong to severe. Ridging will remain over the region on Friday. Further to our W, a more substantial upper trough will likely set off a significant severe weather episode. Given the ridging and WSW sfc flow, a very warm to hot day looks to be in store with highs warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s. With dew points in the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s, it will likely feel quite muggy and heat indices in the mid-upper 90s develop during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. The big question is the potential for any storms. Similar to today, the forcing is quite nebulous with ridging aloft and neutral height tendencies. Therefore, would tend to expect any storm potential would originate upstream to our W, potentially from an MCS spilling into the area. The 00z HREF model suite shows some agreement surrounding a convective complex moving across the area later Friday afternoon, with another larger complex also developing W of the area Friday evening and night. These solutions should be taken lightly since guidance notoriously struggles with these MCS complexes. Also similar to today will be the very favorable instability and shear over the area. In fact, the instability and will likely be even higher with sfc and MLCAPE potentially in excess of 3000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-50 kt. This could again support an all- hazards type of severe event, but the variables described above lend to the details being very uncertain. At this point, feel it is prudent to message isolated to scattered afternoon/evening storms, some of which could be strong to severe. Showers/storms may also last into Friday night, with summer- like lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another hot day Saturday, although a cold front looks to push through in the afternoon. Forecast highs are in the upper 80s to around 90 F. With the main shortwave rotating well to our N, most guidance keeps the frontal precip N the area across the New England Saturday. Will also need to monitor for any upstream convection Saturday morning, but uncertainty with this again remains high. NBM PoPs have come down some as we head into the afternoon and the forecast only has a 20-30% chance for widely scattered showers and storms with the expectation that dew points drop off some as the day progresses. A tad cooler Saturday night with lows in the low-mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Drying out Sunday into the early half of next week as high pressure returns. Behind the front, troughiness will linger over eastern CONUS as a tall ridge develops over the central CONUS. This will favor generally seasonable temperatures and dry conditions through Tuesday. Temperatures gradually cool off by a couple degrees each day, with low-mid 80s for highs Sunday, upper 70s-low 80s Monday, and mid-upper 70s Tuesday. The GEFS and EPS both show an upper low developing over the Midwest for the middle of next week which could bring a return to afternoon shower/storm chances Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Thursday... CIGs have finally improved to MVFR/VFR at the terminals early this afternoon with SCT-BKN cumulus/stratocumulus. Mostly VFR through the rest of the 18z/15 TAF period. The main exception to this will be a period of IFR-LIFR CIGs at SBY later tonight- Fri AM. Also, scattered tstms are expected to develop west and south of the terminals later this aftn...and could impact RIC/ECG this evening-tonight. Have maintained PROB30 groups at these two terminals roughly between 23-04z. The chc of thunder is lower (but non-zero at ORF/PHF/SBY), so only have VCSH here. Any storm will be capable of producing LIFR VSBYs in +RA as well as brief gusty winds. The strongest storms could contain hail as well. Still have relatively low confidence in a tstm directly impacting one of the terminals. VFR across VA/NC later tonight into Fri-AM. Outlook: Additional showers and tstms are possible Friday aftn- Friday night. While there is a decent amount of uncertainty with respect to timing, some of the storms could be severe with gusts up to 50 kt. Predominate VFR conditions return over the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Generally sub-SCA conditions into the weekend, but with elevated SW flow ahead of a cold front Saturday, and elevated NW flow behind the front Sunday-Monday. - Locally strong to severe storms possible into tonight and again late Friday/Friday night. A weak pressure gradient across the area this aftn has led to light and variable winds, slowly shifting from SW to more of an E-SE direction across the lower Bay, and to the S elsewhere. Seas are still a bit elevated with SE swell, at 3-4 ft, with waves in the Bay/rivers/sound 1 foot or less, except near 2 ft at the mouth of the bay. Scattered storms, potentially strong to severe, are possible this evening/tonight, especially for the Bay/rivers and will be handled via MWS/SMWs as needed. Otherwise, winds increase a bit on friday, becoming S-SW ~10-15 kt, with yet another round of scattered showers and storms possible, but mainly holding off until very late in the aftn or early evening into Friday night. There may be brief period of elevated, near sub-SCA SW winds Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across the lower James/lower Bay. Winds veer around to the W/NW Sunday and Sunday night in the wake of a passing cold front. Next chance for SCA level winds comes with a secondary surge of cooler, drier air Sunday night into Monday, though this remains uncertain at this range. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Flood Warnings continue along the James River, at Richmond- Westham, and Richmond Locks have crested, but will remain in minor flood stage through Friday night. See water.noaa.gov for more site- specific information. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM/SW NEAR TERM...KMC/SW SHORT TERM...SW LONG TERM...KMC/SW AVIATION...ERI MARINE...LKB HYDROLOGY...