####018008897#### FXUS61 KRNK 170100 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 900 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front extends from the lower Ohio Valley into the central Mid-Atlantic. This front will be the focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through this evening, some of which may be severe. Additional showers and thunderstorms will arrive overnight as a cold front approaches from the Mid-West. Passage of the front will bring clearing Saturday with dry weather for the remainder of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 845 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Additional heavy rain overnight into early Saturday morning, with some gusty winds and lightning. 2) Sunny and warm tomorrow with only very low chances for showers. We are currently seeing a break in shower/storm activity here currently, but additional convection will move in from the west over the next several hours, continuing into the overnight and early morning hours. A dangerous severe weather outbreak was ongoing over the OH and TN Valleys, and these storms were gradually propagating west. These storms are extremely strong, with enhanced V signatures evident in satellite imagery, and many reports of large hail, 60+ mph winds, and long track tornadoes. While convection will reach our area, current mesoanalysis shows a large pool of stable air here thanks to earlier convection this afternoon and the fact that it is nighttime and we are losing short wave energy. This will help weaken the cells somewhat as they near from the west and interact with outflow boundaries. Cells may have gusty winds and lightning, with the majority containing heavy rainfall and high instantaneous rainfall rates as the main feature of the storms as they merge into a linear MCS and move south-southeast. We expect some areas may have flooding issues as they receive more rain on top of what they had earlier. In general QPF amounts will be less than an inch, with the heavier amounts over our western WV, VA and NC mountains. As of 502 PM EDT Friday... Key Message: 1) Severe weather threat continues east of the Blue Ridge. Have ended Severe Thunderstorm Watch #261. Watch #264 remains in effect for Stokes County, NC to Craig County, VA and east through 11 pm for additional storms that are ongoing. Will be trimming Watch #264 as the evening continues. As of 345 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch #261 in effect until 6PM for parts of NW NC, western VA west of the ROA Valley, and southern WV generally south of I-64. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #264 across the remainder of southern VA and northern NC through 11PM. 2) Strong to severe storms expected with potential for large damaging hail. 3) More storms expected overnight as another MCS moves in from KY. Severe winds/hail possible. 18Z RNK sounding says it all with SBCAPE of 4000 j/kg. Capping inversion just above 850 MB is keeping premature deep convection to a minimum, allowing for MCS to take full advantage of the environment. Storms within this environment can/will produce destructive hail, downburst winds and vivid lightning. Storms have been producing just as many positive strikes as they are negative...the positive strikes providing a jolt 10X that of a negative stroke. When the storms crossed the New River Valley, blinding rain and wind reported. We measured a 55kt gust (63mph) here at the NWS office. Per latest SPC discussion, supercells within WW 261 have consolidated into clusters. How this activity evolves east of WW 261 is rather uncertain...but do think high probability for activity to progress east along the VA/NC border all the way to Danville. That said, a new Watch (WW264) has been issued for the foothills and piedmont of southern VA and northern NC (along VA/NC border). Current MCS is expected to exit the CWA this evening, leaving lull or break between yet another MCS that is expected to develop farther upstream across MO and western KY, moving east again, and crossing the southern Appalachians during the overnight. Saturday will feature morning clouds but think westerly winds will bring drying for the afternoon, passage of the cold front bringing an end to the shower/storm threat for the remainder of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Windy conditions during weekend 2) A few small chances of precipitation before another front arrives mid-next week With a cold front passing through this weekend, winds will be northwesterly and considerably gusty along and west of the Blue Ridge. Model guidance suggests sustained winds of 10-15 mph and wind gusts of 25-35 mph. Winds at the highest elevations may be a little stronger due to a low level jet. Winds will calm down by Monday afternoon as the Mid-Atlantic will be in a smaller pressure gradient. Dew points and temperatures will take a small hit but are expected to recover by the middle of next week as a warm front approaches from the west. Dew points will still be in the 50s and PWATs will also be at least 1" for the more southern counties. Some 500mb shortwaves are expected to pass through the region prior to the next cold front which could bring some additional precipitation chances for the more western and mountainous counties. Given it is May, this precipitation will likely be in the form of thunderstorms though severe weather is currently unlikely. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Chance of widespread precipitation mid-next week 2) Drier air to move in A surface low is projected to pass through the region mid-next week but specific impacts will be determined on its trajectory. This low is expected to be dragging fronts with it but it's position relative to our area will determine if our area gets a cold front, a warm front, or both. Precipitation is the highest with this system next week, but it is too early to know of any severe weather hazards or how much precipitation will accompany this system. The air mass that follows it will be considerably drier with dew points lowering into the 50s region-wide and PWATs tanking to about 0.25-0.50 inches. The air temperatures also may be a little cooler with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s towards the Piedmont. An upper level low is projected to pass through the northeast portion of CONUS towards the end of next week but model guidance is currently unsure if it will be a cut off low. The upper low looks to move slowly regardless of this and provide multiple vorticity maxima to the Mid-Atlantic. With the dry conditions, however, additional precipitation is unlikely. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 900 PM EDT Friday... Additional storms are expected to arrive late tonight into early Saturday morning from the TN/OH Valleys, reaching us as a bkn- solid line of storms crossing the central Appalachians between 04Z-10Z. Expect mainly MVFR restrictions, with some IFR possible at times. Very heavy rain, gusty winds, and some lightning are expected, but severe weather is unlikely. SW winds will gust into the 20 to 30 kt range as the system moves through. Expect very gusty westerly winds on Saturday. Much improved, VFR flight conditions are expected Saturday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Dry weather is expected through Sunday. High pressure ridging into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday and into early next week, keeping the weather quiet with likely VFR conditions for all terminals. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday. && .EQUIPMENT... As of 900 PM EDT Friday... The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Blacksburg, VA has finished a required, scheduled update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025. While most of our services are back to normal, there may still be issues with delayed or missing products until all services are restored in the next few days. No impacts to our core services of forecast products and weather watches, warnings and advisories are expected during this period. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...PM/SH SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...PM/SH EQUIPMENT...SH ####018007174#### FXUS61 KPBZ 170101 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 901 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... There is potential for strong to severe storms tonight as a cold front approaches. Drier and cooler conditions return Sunday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - A decaying MCS is likely tonight somewhere in the Ohio Valley tonight, but confidence in location is low. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Afternoon convective development along a convergence zone and remnant outflow boundaries has now dissipated and exited our area to the east. A few showers remain north of Pittsburgh, but these too should exit within the next hour or two and give way to a brief quiet period this evening. Satellite imagery shows a pocket of much drier air and clearer skies working in from the west. Some atmospheric recovery has been noted across a good portion of Ohio where some cu have developed and temperatures have touched the low 80s. This has allowed for destabilization of up to 2000 J/kg of uncapped MLCAPE. Lack of forcing is likely going to preclude any additional development for the next couple hours despite the ripe environment, but uncertainty increases into later tonight. An ongoing MCS is pushing through southern IL and IN this evening. This will be the focus for another round of storms locally later on tonight, but confidence in how it evolves here is still low. CAMs aren't too bullish on the MCS extending far enough north to reach much into SW PA as they mostly favor it to dive south along the best CAPE gradient south of I-70. Given the ample recovery that's been achieved across Ohio and upstream radar observations showing storms developing into central IL and strong conglomerating cold pools propagating additional development north, we could see impacts reaching up to I-70. This is the "most probable" solution at this point. Another possible, but lower confidence, solution is that development can extend farther north. This would be reliant on convection across the southern tip of Lake Michigan developing and congealing cold pools with the southern dominant MCS. There is ongoing agitated cu development over that way suggesting convective initiation attempts may be imminent. This afternoon's storms have also left behind remnant outflow north of Pittsburgh as well locally, and this could act as a trigger for additional development later on. So, the CAMs still favor a southward sprint of the MCS as it gets into our eastern Ohio counties after 10pm or so, and the best chances of severe tonight increasing the farther south of Pittsburgh you go. But, will have to watch over the next couple hours to see how the upstream stuff evolves to get a better idea of what it may look like here. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front will cross the area, bringing gusty winds and a cooldown. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Irrespective of prior weather, there is high confidence of a cold frontal passage in the late morning and early afternoon. With this and the upper low pulling across the northern Great Lakes. This will pack the pressure gradient. Pre-frontally, there is some indication that there may be a shallow cap as a bit of pre-frontal warm advection rides up the axis of the front. Should this exist, winds will not start the day gusty. Should this be absent, gusts of 30-40 mph may develop in the morning. Into the afternoon, winds are expected to peak along the cold front. Gusts could be heightened in showers/storms along the front, mostly in the 40-50mph range, but the chance of severe could not be ruled out completely. After the cold front, low level cold-advection settles in, destabilizing profiles with the potential to mix into 40kt 850mb winds. Winds behind the front will be more likely than ahead of the front. With daytime gusts a bit higher in the ridges of eastern Tucker County, a wind advisory is in effect from 10am Saturday to 2am Sunday, where gusts up to 50mph are possible. Winds die down a bit overnight with decoupling && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler and drier pattern returns Sunday through Tuesday. - Precipitation chances return Tuesday into Wednesday with another low pressure system - Potential for heavy rain mid-week that warrants monitoring ------------------------------------------------------------------- Models have been consistent that troughing over the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS will maintain northwest flow over the local area Sunday into Monday, keeping temperatures seasonable and the weather dry through that time. Probability of precipitation increases again late Tuesday into Wednesday with a new low ejecting out of the Rockies and tracking east across the Plains. A few model scenarios note a stationary boundary straddling south of Pittsburgh with this passing low. If that scenario plays out, heavy rain could pose a threat for portions of the region around mid-week. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The main impact to aviation tonight will be a line of thunderstorms advancing eastward across the area with a cold front. Restrictions, strong wind gusts, and possibly some hail could occur with some of the storms embedded in the line. The greatest uncertainty is the northern extent of this line. Capping with warmer air around 700mb across northern OH and NW PA should limit the storm potential across that region. Believe the latest CAMS are slightly too far south with this line, so the TAFs reflect this line advancing across OH, Wrn PA, and nrn WV. Did not include thunder at FKL and DUJ, though will monitor the convective trends. The line is likely to reach ZZV from 03-05Z, PIT 05-07Z, and LBE 06-08Z. Expecting a period of MVFR in showers behind this line. Conditions should improve by mid morning with mixing, though stratocu and scattered showers are expected through the day with a crossing upper trough. Mixing, cold advection, and a tight pressure gradient behind the front should result in gusty WSW wind from 25-35kt by mid morning, and continuing through the day. Outlook... Patchy cig restrictions are possible mainly N of PIT Saturday night into Sunday with the crossing trough and cool WSW flow. VFR returns Monday under high pressure, before restriction potential and showers return Tuesday and Wednesday with crossing low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ514. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Cermak/Hefferan NEAR TERM...MLB/Milcarek SHORT TERM...Milcarek LONG TERM...Cermak/Hefferan AVIATION...WM ####018007649#### FXUS62 KMLB 170101 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 901 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 900 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 - Hot and dry weather persists this weekend into next week across east central Florida with near record temperatures and sensitive fire weather conditions. - Next best chance for showers and storms looks to be during the middle of next week as a front moves over the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The forecast for east central Florida remains on track. An area of high pressure remains situated across the area, keeping skies mostly clear and conditions dry. After a warm day across east central Florida, temperatures have slowly started to fall back into the 80s this evening, with overnight lows forecast to fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Currently-Saturday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over east central Florida and GOES-16 satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies. High pressure (~1018mb) is situated over the eastern Gulf of America and the state of Florida. Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s to mid 90s with heat index values in the 90s to 100F degrees and dew points generally in the 60s to low 70s. Winds are from the east-southeast at 6-12mph with gusts to 20mph along the coast with the east coast sea breeze beginning to move inland and from the west-southwest at 6-12mph to the west of I-95. Dry and hot weather is expected to continue this afternoon with above normal to record high temperatures. Dry and hot weather will continue Saturday afternoon with high pressure over Florida, as well as 500mb heights at around 591dm forecast over east central Florida into Saturday afternoon. ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles indicate afternoon temperatures in the 97.5th to maximum percentile for this time of year over east central Florida. Lows in the mid 60 to mid 70s are forecast. Above normal (~5-10F+) to record high temperatures in the low to mid 90s are forecast. There is a Moderate HeatRisk on Saturday. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate hydration. It is recommended that those who spend extended periods of time outside this afternoon and early evening to drink plenty of water, wear light-colored clothing, reduce time spent outdoors or stay in the shade, and take breaks in an air conditioned facility. Sunday-Tuesday... High pressure over Florida on Sunday is expected to gradually shift east over the southwest Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday. Guidance shows 500mb heights over east central Florida around 588-591dm Sunday to Tuesday. Additionally, ECMWF and NAEFS ensembles indicate afternoon temperatures in the 90th to maximum percentile for this time of year over east central Florida. Dry weather is expected with high temperatures in the low to upper 90s and lows in generally the mid 60s to mid 70s. Heat index values between 98-106F degrees are forecast. There is a Moderate to Major HeatRisk Sunday to Monday, and a Moderate to Extreme HeatRisk Tuesday. A Major to Extreme HeatRisk affects anyone without effective cooling and/or hydration. More information on HeatRisk can be found at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk. Winds are forecast to increase from the east-southeast at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph into each afternoon with the east coast sea breeze generally to the east of the Orlando metro with winds from the west-southwest at 5-10mph. Wednesday-Thursday... High pressure is expected to weaken and shift southeast over the southwest Atlantic Wednesday and Thursday before a "cool" front is forecast to move east-southeast over east central Florida on Thursday. Global models show PWATs between 1.40-1.70" over east central Florida on Thursday. Isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) and lightning storms are forecast ahead of the "cool" front Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning generally along and to the north of I-4 as the aforementioned front moves south over northern Florida before moving over east central Florida into Thursday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers (PoPS ~ 20-30%) and lightning are forecast to develop from the northwest to southeast over east central Florida Thursday morning and afternoon before showers and storms are expected to move offshore of the Treasure Coast into Thursday night. West-southwest winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are forecast. Above normal to record afternoon highs in the low to upper 90s are forecast on Wednesday and the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast on Thursday. Heat index values between 98-106F degrees are forecast on Wednesday. There is a Moderate to Extreme HeatRisk on Wednesday and a Moderate HeatRisk on Thursday. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 218 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Currently-Saturday.... Favorable boating conditions and dry weather are expected with high pressure (~1018mb) over Florida. South-southeast winds at 6-14kts are expected to veer west- southwest tonight and back east-southeast into Saturday afternoon. Seas to 1-3ft are expected. Sunday-Tuesday... Favorable boating conditions and dry weather are expected with high pressure (~1017mb) over Florida expected to gradually shift southeast over the southwest Atlantic through Tuesday. West-southwest winds at 6-14kts are expected to back east-southeast into each afternoon and increase to 10-15kts on Tuesday. Seas to 1-3ft are expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 720 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 VFR conditions anticipated tonight through tomorrow, with no rain chances forecast near the terminals. Variable winds tonight pick up out of the west-southwest at 5 to 10 knots tomorrow morning. Along the coast from TIX southward, winds are forecast to become more onshore as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland during the afternoon hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Sensitive fire weather conditions are expected through mid week next week with soils expected to continue to dry out with no mentionable rain chances in the forecast through Tuesday. Minimum RH values between 30-35% over the interior are expected Saturday; however, winds will be relatively light, so conditions will not reach Red Flag criteria. Minimum RH values near 50% are forecast close to the coast south of Cape Canaveral. Minimum RH values between 35-40% are forecast generally over the interior Sunday and into early next week. Winds will turn onshore each afternoon at 10-15mph with gusts to 20mph behind the sea breeze, mainly east of the Orlando metro. Above normal to near record high temperatures are expected each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 72 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 72 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 71 93 72 93 / 0 10 0 10 LEE 70 94 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 70 97 71 97 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 70 92 71 92 / 0 10 0 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Tollefsen AVIATION...Tollefsen ####018008622#### FXUS63 KGID 170102 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 802 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong NW winds currently in place (gusting near 45-50 MPH at times) will linger through late afternoon...gradually diminishing this evening/overnight. Current isolated/scattered showers across northern areas will also diminish this evening, with dry conditions overnight. - Saturday still looking to be an overall pleasant day. Dry conditions are forecast, with lighter winds turning more easterly with time and highs in the 70s. - A more active pattern is expected Sunday through Tuesday, as a couple of upper level disturbances look to swing through the region. Thunderstorm chances return to the entire area, some of which may be strong to severe, especially Sun-Mon during the afternoon-evening hours. && .UPDATE... Issued at 802 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Strong winds which impacted much of south central Nebraska today have begun to subside, and severe wind gusts near 60 MPH are no longer expected. For this reason, the High Wind Warning has been allowed to expire. While winds have begun to diminish, gusts of 40 to near 50 MPH will remain possible through around 10 PM CDT. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 411 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Currently... Upper air and satellite data show generally westerly flow aloft across the area...as we sit on the southern side of a larger area of low pressure making its way east across MN. The majority of the forecast area has been dry...but enough moisture has been wrapping around the backside of the main low to bring some isolated/scattered showers to northern locations. Not looking at any notable rain out of any of these showers unfortunately. At the surface, low pressure is also in place over MN...with continued gusty NW winds area-wide. Gusts through the day around 40-45 MPH have been fairly widespread...with a handful of sites up in the 50-55 MPH range at times, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. Only airport so far to hit 'severe' criteria (58+) is Hastings, which hit exactly 58 MPH this afternoon. Plenty of cloud cover sinking south has also helped keep things cooler for some...here at mid afternoon temps range from the upper 50s at ODX to the upper 70s across portions of north central KS. This evening through Saturday... Spotty precipitation ongoing this afternoon is expected to diminish by early evening...with the forecast for tonight on through Saturday remaining dry. Models are in good agreement, showing by 12Z Saturday, the main upper level over MN has pushed further east into the Great Lakes region, while the next system of interest is making its way onto the West Coast. This will allow for broad upper level ridging to cross the area...with no notable systems crossing the area. At the surface...the current gusty winds are expected to gradually taper off with time this evening/tonight...as a ridge axis works its way into the area. Winds for most remain generally NWrly tonight...with winds then turning more easterly gradually with time through the day on Saturday. Compared the previous couple of days, Saturday's winds will feel nice...with speeds closer to sustained 15 MPH vs the 25-35 we are seeing today. Saturday highs look to be pleasant...topping out in the low-mid 70s. Sunday through Tuesday... Best precipitation chances for the 7-day period continue lie in this time frame, with a couple of disturbances looking to swing through the Plains. Saturday night into early Sunday morning, models show this next upper level low/trough digging SSE...stretching from the Pac NW into the Desert SW by 12Z Sunday. Some models showing the potential for light precipitation to start working its way in from the south early Sunday morning, stretched along the leading edge of better moisture advection...shifting further north through the first half of the day. Not a ton of confidence in how impactful this would be, if it happens, so chances remain in the 20-30 percent range for most through 18Z Sunday. Through the afternoon...focus will be turning to the approaching upper level shortwave disturbance, which will be swinging northeast out of the Four Corners region on through CO. At the surface, deepening low pressure will also be working its way ENE, ending up along the CO/KS border by early evening...exactly where the low is centered is still a bit uncertain. As a result, confidence in the exact location of the accompanying sfc warm front and dryline suffers...and their locations will be an important part in thunderstorm/severe weather potential. The entire forecast area is included in at least the SPC Day 3 Slight Risk...with the far SE portions included in the Enhanced Risk area. Models showing plenty of instability developing across the area, but again how much of that creeps north into our forecast area will be dependent on the location of those sfc features...and there is some question with warmer mid-level temps/capping and how long it holds things off. Threat for strong-severe storms may carry well into the overnight hours, shifting further north and east with time as the LLJ increases. All severe weather threats will be possible. The shortwave disturbance driving Sunday's chances is shown by models to deepen into a more organized area of low pressure as we get into Monday...and while storm chances linger through the day/evening, where that upper low ultimately sets up will be interesting. If it sets up far enough north/east...like some models have...precipitation and severe weather chances may largely be focused outside of our forecast area, driven by the next shortwave disturbance swinging around the southern edge of this newer low. Overall confidence in exact locations of the upper level features and sfc features (which may impacted by any boundary set down by Sunday's activity) is not high at this point. A more western location of that upper low would keep the severe weather threat around at least the eastern half of the forecast area...which remain outlooked in the SPC Day 4 15 percent area. Models show things in the upper levels becoming more phased together with time, but its not until Tuesday-Tuesday night that the whole system finally makes a better push through and out of the forecast area. Following forecast highs Sunday and Monday in the 70s-80s, highs on Tuesday are only in the 50s-60s as the system works its way through. Wednesday and Thursday... The forecast for much of the Wed-Thu time frame is dry in the wake of this early week system...but there is some uncertainty with how quickly activity does end Tuesday night, not out of the question there could be some lingering activity Wed morning. More northwesterly flow looks to set up across the region...with models showing the potential for another system to slide in Thursday evening-night. Current forecast highs for Wed are in the 60s, with 70s back for Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Prevailing VFR conditions expected through the period with very strong winds expected to persist through around 17/03Z...and diminishing to near 10 KTS overnight. Expect the upper level low over Minnesota this evening to shift east into Wisconsin by midnight, with the strong winds in its wake gradually decoupling and shifting east over the same time period. The mid level clouds wrapping around this low should also exit the area, with CIGS already beginning to improve at KEAR with similar improvements expected at KGRI over the next couple of hours. As winds diminish late this evening...could see some modest LLWS for a few hours overnight, but with the focus further north and east of the terminals as the low exits the region, decided not to include any mention in the 17/00Z TAFs. Skies should then become mostly clear by early Saturday morning, with generally light northeasterly winds returning (with a few gusts of 15-18KTS) through the end of the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Rossi DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Rossi