####018008132#### FXUS61 KBGM 151920 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 320 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather continues for the rest of the week as a slow moving upper level low moves through. This will bring periods of rain showers and chances for thunderstorms today and Friday. A cold front is then forecast to move through on Saturday with another round of rain and scattered thunderstorms. Cooler weather with a few lingering showers is expected to round out the weekend on Sunday, before dry and cool weather arrives for the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 1130 AM Update: Made some minor adjustments to sky cover for this afternoon, but otherwise the forecast remains on track. 650 AM Update Minor adjustments to PoPs and Probability of thunderstorms with the sunrise update based on the latest trends in the CAMs. This reduced the chance for t'storms to mainly isolated this afternoon and early evening, with scattered showers still anticipated. Rest of the forecast remains on track at this time. 415 AM Update Early morning stratus clouds, patchy fog and drizzle will be around the region through 9-10 AM. Clouds start to break up some by late morning and into the afternoon, with partly sunny conditions expected. However, instability will increase as the broad upper level trough axis moves overhead this afternoon. MLCAPE should range from about 400-800 J/Kg by peak heating time late this afternoon, as surface dew points rise into the upper 50s to low 60s. This will set the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over the forecast area. Storm motions will be rather slow, moving off to the east-northeast at less than 20 mph. This slow storm motion is due to weak flow through the atmospheric column, with winds less than 15 kts from the surface all the way up to 300mb (or nearly 30k feet agl). PWATs will be rather high, around 1.30 inches this afternoon...so these slow moving storms could produce locally heavy to excessive downpours, with a marginal risk from WPC for excessive rainfall and isolated flash flooding across NE PA. Otherwise, today will feature warmer temperatures with highs reaching into the 70s areawide; this is around 7-15F degrees warmer than yesterday. The scattered showers and slow moving isolated thunderstorms quickly diminish this evening, with dry weather expected for most of the overnight. Stratus clouds and patchy fog are likely to develop once again. A decaying MCS/QLCS quickly approaches from the west late at night into early Friday morning; likely reaching Steuben/Bradford counties around daybreak. This line should be weakening as it rolls through due to limited instability in place. It will be mild overnight with lows in the mid-50s to low 60s. The weakening line of showers and possible embedded t'storms quickly moves east across most of the forecast area between 7-11 AM Friday morning, with less QPF as it approaches the Catskills, Poconos and Mohawk Valley regions. After this initial morning convection, conditions should dry out and clouds break for partly sunny skies heading into the afternoon and evening hours. CAMs show another scattered/broken line of convection developing over the area Friday afternoon and early evening, with highest probs and coverage from I- 81 east. A few storms could turn strong to severe, as instability reaches 600-1500 J/Kg and stronger deep layer shear of 30-40 kts develops...however there is some question on how dry mid level air and capping could limit convective development. Friday will feature very warm and humid conditions with highs in the upper 70s to mid- 80s and surface dew points in the low to mid-60s. Will need to closely monitor the latest model guidance to try an pin down when dry time will be on Friday with more precision. At this point, despite high overall PoPs in the forecast, all of Friday does not look like a washout. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM Update... Warm front moves through the region Saturday morning bringing a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Showers will move from west to east making an exit by early afternoon. The timing of the initial round will suppress/lack instability, model sounding show a cap in the morning hours. Once the showers move through skies attempt to clear behind allowing for some afternoon heating. Temperatures will be warm with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s with some spots in the low 80s in northeast PA. NAM sounding shows CAPE values ranging 1,000 to 1,500 J/Kg with 30-35 knots of bulk shear. The cap is not expected to break until the afternoon hours when a cold front moves through. This will set off a second round of showers and storms with more potential to produce isolated strong to severe storms. SPC has our entire region in a marginal risk. Otherwise the frontal system moves out of the region Saturday evening, with showers and thunderstorms ending with its departure. A brief dry period follows overnight with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Upper level low continues to rotate as it moves east with wrap around moisture allowing showers to linger into Sunday. Model guidance has slight variations of the placement of the low keeping showers mainly in central NY. Although showers may also extend into northeast PA as well. Temperatures on Sunday will be cool behind the front with highs climbing into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Showers will dissipate Sunday night with drier conditions settling in. Overnight lows will fall into the low to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 300 PM Update... Cool pattern continues into the start of the week with northwest flow in place along with an upper level ridge building in. Dry conditions will finally hold Monday with high pressure building in at the surface. Skies will clear out by the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s for most of the region with some areas in northeast PA reaching the mid 60s. Similar cool and dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with a system passing just to our south. While the next round of showers is not expected until Wednesday, there is some uncertainty on the timing and ensemble, regardless NBM guidance still supports a slight chance PoPs. Uncertainty continues towards the end of the period but model guidance hints at another chance for showers Thursday. Otherwise temperatures remain cool during this period with highs in the low 50s to upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s with some patchy frost may be possible Monday night. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions will be present most of this afternoon, but with isolated showers and thunderstorms around, brief ceiling and/or visby restrictions will be possible if a shower/thunderstorms occurs over a terminal. Highest confidence in thunder was at KAVP, but with much less confidence elsewhere, thunder was not included at any other sites. If a thunderstorm does happen to pop-up near another terminal, amendments will be issued. Late tonight, some low stratus will be present, which will result in at least MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings. Conditions likely return to mainly VFR by late Friday morning, although there will still be some showers around. Outlook... Friday afternoon through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunder possible, along with associated restrictions. Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/MJM NEAR TERM...BJG/MJM SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...BJG ####018004245#### FXUS62 KILM 151922 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 322 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures near record levels are expected through late week. A weak cold front will move through Saturday night which could then return back north into or through the area toward mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Little in the way of convection expected through Friday under mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures for the season. Lows tonight will fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs Friday away from the beaches in the low to mid 90s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Above normal temps w/ record high temps possible Saturday *Isolated damaging winds and/or large hail possible Saturday aftn/eve, especially in NC Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A mostly zonal upper flow is expected with an inland surface trough giving way to a pretty weak cold front likely passing through Sat night. Limited moisture and forcing should preclude widespread rainfall but a few showers/storms are possible during the aftn/eve. There looks to be quite a bit of instability/shear for any storms to tap into so can't rule out a few damaging wind gusts and/or some large hail, mainly in NC. Temps should be the big story though as they will be well above normal, especially Saturday when they could reach record levels in the lower to mid 90s (see Climate section below for details). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Above normal temps through the period *Mainly dry through at least Tue *No significant severe storm/flood risk until possibly Wed Confidence: *Moderate to High through Tue *Low to Moderate Tue night through Thu Details: Zonal to weak ridging pattern aloft should give way to more troughing late in the period although confidence is low regarding the timing/strength of the trough and associated surface frontal system. The previous front that had pushed south of the area over the weekend should push back north toward mid week ahead of the aforementioned frontal system developing farther to the west. Thus, it should remain fairly dry through at least Tue before rain chances increase although for now we are being fairly conservative given the uncertainty. Temps should stay above normal until possibly as early as Wed when they could fall back closer or even below normal. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. There may be isolated convection this afternoon, mainly northern areas but little to no impacts to terminals expected. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Expect S to SW winds 10 to 15 KT with higher gusts and seas of 3 to 4 FT. Friday night through Tuesday...Moderate to high confidence this period. A weak cold front should move through Sat night with a marginal Small Craft Advisory possible for gusts to around 25 kt Sat aftn/eve prior to the frontal passage. Otherwise, a fairly weak pressure gradient is expected through the period w/ no headlines anticipated as seas stay mostly 4 ft or less. && .CLIMATE... High temperature records may be challenged Friday and Saturday as anomalously warm air overspreads the region ahead of a cold front. Record highs for our four climate sites are as follows: For Friday, May 16th... Wilmington, NC: 94F (1915) Lumberton, NC: 96F (1962, 1941) Florence, SC: 93F (2022) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 91F (1941) Saturday, May 17th... Wilmington, NC: 92F (1960, 1990) Lumberton, NC: 96F (1941) Florence, SC: 93F (1977) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 92F (1941) && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...31 MARINE...RJB/31 CLIMATE... ####018005453#### FXUS64 KSHV 151923 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 223 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 While a low pressure system is impacting the Great Lakes Region, an associated cold front has become quasi-stationary just northwest of the region. We have seen some rain and thunderstorms develop along this boundary this afternoon, which has stayed sub severe in intensity so far. The concern in previous packages has been the strength in the cap, as seen from the KSHV 12z sounding this morning. RAP analysis has shown some decay in the cap through the day, but we have yet to know if it will be enough for future storms to take advantage of the favorable environment and become severe. Either way, the rain showers will continue to be possible in our far northern zones through the evening and into the overnight hours before the cold front mixes out early Friday morning. The continued cloud cover and elevated surface winds will help keep the regional lows tonight firmly in the 70s. Friday will bring similar conditions to the Ark-La-Tx: warm temperatures and a favorable environment for evening storms, but some uncertainty on if anything will be able to initiate. Short and medium-range guidance has been inconsistent on this front, mainly due to the overall lack of decent low-level forcing. Despite the uncertainty, SPC has a slight risk of severe weather north of a line stretching from north of Monroe to south of Tyler on Friday. This risk is primarily for large hail and damaging winds from storms that are able to initiate and tap in to the environmental moisture and instability. There is also a chance of flash flooding in portions of southern AR with these storms. Rain may continue to impact the northern half of the area overnight Friday, but severe potential should drop off with the progression of upper-level support. /57/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 More upper-level perturbations will move through the Four State Region and bring continued chances of showers and storms through late Sunday, when the upper-level ridge sitting over the area is able to amplify. This could provide a brief reprieve in the unsettled weather on Monday, but there is still a chance of isolated rain showers breaking through the weak part of the ridge. Tuesday will likely bring more widespread severe weather to the area, as models are already beginning to find points of agreement in the setup. A closed low is expected to propagate eastward toward the Central Plains on Tuesday and bring a cold front with it. That front, in combination with a potential Texas dryline, would be the focus of severe weather. There is still some uncertainties on the event, but SPC has already highlighted the northwestern fourth of the CWA as having a 15% chance of severe development on Tuesday. The system should continue eastward out of the region by Wednesday, and reward us with slightly cooler temperatures for the rest of the week. /57/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Winds at the surface are SSW to SSW and gusting up to 25 to 30 mph this afternoon as expected with most of the sub-VFR conditions this morning due to low ceilings having improved to VFR (or they should shortly). Scattered cumulus is exhibiting decks ranging from 2.5 to 4 kft. A cold front gradually sagging into far NW zones (NW of the I-30 corridor) this afternoon will likely kick up some isolated showers and thunderstorms that would affect areas near and northwest of TXK late this afternoon through the evening. Any storms there could be severe with potential for damaging winds and large hail, although this should really just affect the TXK TAF site through the TAF period. Otherwise, the weather evolution later tonight into tomorrow morning should be relatively similar to today with LLWS speed shear issues later tonight in most areas in the lowest few thousand feet and MVFR decks moving in from the south after midnight. Both these conditions will likely improve around 15 to 16 UTC tomorrow. Finally, we anticipate the stormy pattern setting up today near and northwest of the I-30 corridor to gradually expand southward tomorrow afternoon into Saturday. /50/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 415 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon through this evening northwest of the Interstate 30 corridor of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas, should any isolated storms develop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 92 75 92 / 10 0 30 20 MLU 76 93 75 94 / 0 0 30 20 DEQ 71 88 65 89 / 30 10 20 30 TXK 75 92 71 92 / 20 10 40 30 ELD 73 91 69 92 / 10 10 50 30 TYR 76 90 73 91 / 10 10 20 30 GGG 74 90 72 91 / 10 10 30 20 LFK 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...57 LONG TERM....57 AVIATION...50 ####018011454#### FXUS61 KLWX 151924 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will drift toward the northeast today while a warm front approaches from the west by tonight. Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes Region Friday, with a trailing cold front pushing through the area Saturday. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Substantial clearing has occurred today area-wide, with instability growing as a result. There is generally a gradient of CAPE over the region from NE to SW of around 1000-1500 J/kg in northeast MD to around 2000-2500 J/kg across central to southwestern VA. Also evident in latest analyses is a strong convergence zone over the Potomac Highlands. Along this zone of convergence is a fairly agitated cumulus field, indicative that convective initiation is likely not far off. This environment is also characterized by around 30 to 40 knots of bulk shear. Forecast soundings show some pretty fat CAPE, especially within the hail growth layer, in the region generally from the Potomac Highlands down through central/southeast VA and areas south and west from there. As thunderstorms develop this afternoon within this environment, though coverage may be isolated to widely scattered, expect some very tall supercells to be the primary storm mode. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats today, and in fact SPC has highlighted the area for significant (2"+) hail. Storms today should have decent motion...however with this area being hydrologically sensitive with many streams running high, can't rule out an isolated flood issue. WPC maintains a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across the region for this reason. Most of the guidance continues to keep these stronger storms south of I-66 (if not much farther south). Locations that see appreciable sun today should approach/exceed 80, while locations to the northeast stay in the mid 70s. After storms move to the southeast during the evening there should be a quiet period as temperatures fall back to the 60s. Some patchy fog or low clouds could develop overnight, especially in area where it rains this afternoon/evening. By late tonight, a decaying line of thunderstorms may push through the northern half of our region. This should be relatively quick-moving, and decaying in strength as it moves east. Can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder, but not seeing a risk of severe weather with it into Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... For the rest of Friday through Saturday, much more uncertainty exists around thunderstorm chances...with a high dependence on what happens upstream, both in terms of advection, and how the local environment may be modified. Current guidance favors several periods, but this could obviously change: First is something originating from the southwest and moving into the area on Friday afternoon, though this carries the most uncertainty. If no forcing can move into the area Friday, it could turn out pretty dry, as forecast soundings exhibit a fairly strong cap. Second, and potentially the most significant, will be upstream convection that may arrive late Friday night into Saturday morning. The question is whether this survives in tact or regenerates during the day Saturday along its outflow. Throughout the period, CAPE and shear would be supportive of severe thunderstorms, especially any that are previously organized and/or develop locally during peak heating. Storms should generally be progressive, but will have to monitor the flooding threat as well. Hopefully details can be refined moving forward. The Storm prediction center has actually introduced a widespread Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday, primarily focused on this potential MCS threat into the evening hours. So, confidence seems to be on the increase, but these setups are always rather tricky to handle. At any rate, will be monitoring trends closely with each model run ahead of the event. Assuming early clouds/rain are not too widespread, Friday will turn out rather hot and humid with highs well into the 80s. Some locations could have heat indices in the lower 90s. The same can be said for Saturday after a very mild start. It's possible the cold front clears the area Saturday morning, with clearing/drying and breezy conditions in the afternoon however. The secondary cold front may bring some upslope showers Saturday night. Otherwise temperatures will start cooling off. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure traversing the region Sunday into the start of next week will bring dry conditions to the area. Even with some passing shortwaves aloft, not really expecting convection given dry airmass at the surface. Seasonal temperatures in the 70s to near 80F Sunday and Monday, with overnight lows in the 50s. A dry reinforcing cold front Monday night bring some cooler temps, with lows in the 40s west of the Blue Ridge. The weather pattern looks to become very active again for the middle of next week. Split flow aloft confluences over the TN and OH Valleys Tuesday into Wednesday, with two strong upper troughs merging in some capacity as they move across the Mid-South, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. A frontal zone looks to set up over our area sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday as a warm front lifts in from the south. Several waves of low pressure traversing the frontal zone bring us rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Too early to tell if any will be severe, though heavy rainfall is possible depending on where the boundary sets up. Another noteworthy trend for mid to late next week is the return of cooler than normal temperatures. Highs are currently forecast to be in the 60s to around 70F Wednesday and Thursday, with that possibly continuing into the following weekend. Overnight lows though still around seasonal values in the 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Starting to see some more agitated cumulus out over eastern WV into the Shenandoah Valley along an area of strong convergence. This will be the spark for thunderstorms to develop this afternoon over the higher elevations and move towards the southeast. Still questioning how far north the development will be, hence there are still only PROB30s at IAD and DCA. However, CHO is more likely to get in on the action, so have added a prevailing TSRA group in later this afternoon/evening. This will be a very short duration event, with large hail and damaging winds both threats to watch out for. If under a storm that develops today, the hail could even approach 2" in diameter, so that threat is a bit more elevated today than the average thunderstorm day in the region. Sub-VFR conditions (ceilings or fog) may return to mainly MRB/BWI/MTN tonight into early Friday. There is also potential for one or more rounds of showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Friday afternoon. The first of which will move through the northern half of the area early on Friday morning. This should mainly be in the form of showers, so no mention of thunder in the TAF. However, can't completely rule out a few lightning strikes in this, especially at MRB. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail. Then on Friday afternoon, this is when things get very uncertain. Heat and humidity will build, so some isolated to scattered storms may develop Friday afternoon as well. Confidence was too low to put into the TAFs at the moment, but it is a possibility that may need to be explored on future TAFs. Another round of thunderstorms could arrive late Friday night into Saturday morning. This round has the most uncertainty at this point. An MCS moving in from the Ohio Valley may make it into our region late Friday evening into Friday night. This could be yet another risk for damaging wind gusts, but the timing and certainty of occurrence is still just not quite there yet. So, will hopefully have more details as this moves into the TAF period. There may be a few storms ahead of a frontal passage on Saturday as well, which could also contain damaging wind gusts. This should push through rather early on in the day, giving way to drier and windy conditions in its wake. VFR conditions are expected Sunday into the start of next week as high pressure maintains control across the region. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions should prevail through Friday night with winds becoming southerly today and southwesterly Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across mainly the southern Maryland waters late this evening. However, highest confidence area for storms is south of the waters at this time, so keeping that threat around 20 to 30 percent at most. A decaying line of showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, will push through the area Friday morning. This could bring some gusty winds, but SMWs don't seem likely at this time thanks to the nocturnal inversion being in place. The rest of Friday generally looks quiet, though hot and humid conditions during the afternoon could spark a few thunderstorms near the waters, and of which could bring down some gusty winds. The best chance for severe weather looks to push through late Friday night through early Saturday. Timing and location of an MCS approaching from the west is still very uncertain, but conditions will be favorable for damaging wind gusts if this does traverse the mountains and make it to the waters. SMWs would likely be needed if this feature tracks directly over our area. Additionally, a cold front will push through Saturday, with SCA conditions likely in its wake. A few storms may develop ahead of this front early in the day as well, which could bring their own gusty wind threat. SCA conditions likely on Sunday as winds gust around 20-25 knots across all the waters. High pressure settles overhead Sunday night into Monday, bringing sub-SCA winds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Freshwater flooding will continue at Georgetown through the Friday afternoon high tide cycle, with the site currently in moderate flood stage. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for this threat. Water should recede Friday evening and drop back below flood stage after the Friday overnight high tide cycle. Elsewhere, sensitive tidal sites remain somewhat elevated this afternoon, with several sites in action stage at times of high tide. DC waterfront and Alexandria may even approach minor over the next few high tide cycles. This pattern may continue through this weekend. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM EDT Friday for DCZ001. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADS NEAR TERM...CJL SHORT TERM...ADS/CJL LONG TERM...KRR AVIATION...ADS/CJL/KRR MARINE...ADS/CJL/KRR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL ####018002260#### FXUS65 KMSO 151924 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 124 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Friday morning valley fog, followed by showers. - Mild/dry start Saturday morning then increasing showers. - A very wet Sunday with cold/wet backcountry conditions and mountain pass snow. Showers will linger into this evening before tapering off overnight. Valleys that receive late-day rain and partial clearing may see patchy fog Friday morning. However, the next round of showers and increased cloud cover will quickly arrive Friday morning, with precipitation chances increasing through the day. Model guidance continues to support a cool and wet Sunday as a low pressure system tracks through north-central Idaho and western Montana. Snow levels are now forecast to drop to 4,500–5,500 feet, making slushy accumulations increasingly likely across higher terrain and mountain passes. Expected valley rain (25th–75th percentile) totals have increased to: - 0.30–0.80” for north-central Idaho and Lemhi County - 0.20–0.60” for western Montana Slushy snow and lowered visibility may lead to slow travel over passes including Lost Trail, Williams Creek Summit, Bannock, Lemhi, Nez Perce, and Gilmore. Patchy fog is possible again Monday morning, with lingering clouds through the day. A gradual warming trend is expected next week, though unsettled conditions may persist through Tuesday. By mid to late week, a southwest flow pattern brings milder temperatures and potential for spring thunderstorms. An upper ridge is forecast to build next weekend, with the NBM showing a 50–75% chance of highs returning to the 80s. && .AVIATION...Showers taper off overnight, but areas of MVFR to IFR due to patchy valley fog are possible Friday morning, especially where skies partially clear. Expect showers to redevelop in the Camas Prairie, Idaho by daybreak and mid- morning in western Montana, with obscured terrain and occasional MVFR ceilings into the afternoon. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$