####018007358#### FXUS62 KRAH 170203 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1000 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A line of showers and thunderstorms producing severe weather across the Ohio River valley could bring showers and thunderstorms locally late tonight into Saturday morning. A cold front moving through Saturday night will bring slightly cooler weather for the rest of the weekend. The next round of widespread showers is expected to arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 PM Friday... Earlier this afternoon, a line of severe storms moved across Virginia and extreme northern North Carolina, bringing wind damage in a swath across Person, Granville, Vance, and Halifax counties. However, most of the forecast area remained dry. The surface pattern across North Carolina is currently diffuse, but another round of severe thunderstorms have been making its way across the Midwest and Ohio Valley, and is appearing more likely to hold together as it moves into North Carolina. Considering the arrival time before sunrise, the severity of the thunderstorms that persist will be determined by the mesoscale dynamics associated with the storms themselves as opposed to residual daytime heating. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk into the Triad through 8am Saturday morning, and the local forecast doesn't rule out a thunderstorm anywhere across the forecast area before 8am Saturday. Overnight lows will range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Friday... * There is still a fair bit of uncertainty, however a conditional threat for isolated strong storms Sat aft/eve remains. Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge will remain suppressed well south of the area as a closed low tracks ewd across the srn/ern Great Lakes and Northeast US Sat/Sat night. A couple of shortwave disturbances within the attendant trough will move across the region on Sat before the trough shifts ewd out of the area Sat night. At the surface, the parent low will occlude over the Great Lakes on Sat, while a secondary low develops over the Northeast US. The attendant cold front should progress ewd across the area Sat aft/eve as the secondary low lifts newd along the New England coast. Uncertainty: The biggest uncertainty continues to be whether the convection expected to move across the mid-MS and TN Valley regions tonight, will hold together and move into the area early Sat. And if it does move into the area, how long it will hold together. Then, how much the showers and associated cloud cover will stabilize the atmosphere and/or limit destabilization during the aft/eve, thus impacting whether showers will re-develop along the front and move across the area Sat eve/night. Latest hi-res guidance consensus has the showers/iso storms holding together and moving into the western Piedmont around daybreak Sat, then weakening and/or dissipating somewhere over central NC Sat morn. Convection: Forecast soundings off the NAM show destabilization across much of the area (albeit briefly in the NW), with highest CAPE values across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain during the aft/eve. Max MUCAPE around 2000 J/Kg with effective shear around 40 kts at KFAY and KRWI (and briefly at KRDU). Additionally, with 25-35 kts at the top of the mixed layer, wind gusts in that range will be possible until the nocturnal inversion sets up Sat eve. Additional showers/storms could develop during the aft/eve along/ahead of the front if enough destabilization is realized, and could result in strong wind gusts and possibly some hail. However, there is still somewhat low confidence in timing, location, and coverage of that threat, if it materializes. Temperatures: Also dependent on what happens with the early convection Sat morn, but for now expect highs ranging from mid 80s NW to low 90s SE. Based on current timing of the front, expect lows to range from low 60s NW to upper 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 PM Friday... * Largely unsettled weather is expected for the beginning of the extended period, until a cold front moves through the region Wednesday or Thursday. * Temperatures will remain above average until Wednesday, with below average temperatures expected Thursday and Friday. Sunday and Monday, a front is expected to be quasi-stationary to our south. These days are expected to be mostly dry, however afternoon showers may develop in the south depending on how far north the front stalls. Otherwise, temperatures should be around 5 degrees above average, with maximum temperatures on both days in the low 80s in the north, to the upper 80s, maybe reaching low 90s in the south. Sunday and Monday night should also have lows in the 60s. Rain chances increase again Tuesday afternoon as low pressure associated with the previously stalled front progresses north of the region through the mid Atlantic. There is large model spread on the strength, timing, and location of this system, however models are generally showing a warm front moving north through the region on Tuesday, increasing rain chances, and a cold front moving through the region Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning. Thus, there are rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday, which could potentially linger into Thursday. The best chance for widespread rain currently looks to be Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures should fall behind the front, leaving maximum temperatures in the 70s on Thursday. High pressure should build in behind the cold fropa, leaving Friday dry and keeping maximum temperatures in the 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 745 PM Friday... As of the 23Z observations, all sites in central NC are VFR. No additional flight restrictions are expected tonight, as no more showers or storms are expected. The next hazard should be LLWS tonight, as a 40-45kt southwesterly jet is expected to develop at around 18kft. The LL jet will shift to the east as a cold front approaches the region from the west. Prefrontal showers with embedded storms may reach the region, however model confidence is not high in whether or not the showers are able to hold together as they move over the mountains. Thus, kept the PROB30 for light thunderstorm rain in the morning to early afternoon. Regardless of any rain chances, the front will produce wind gusts around 30-35kts, with isolated gusts up to 45kts. Gusts look like they will continue until around sunset. Outlook: Chances for diurnal isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue through much of the period. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially in areas that received significant rainfall the previous day. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Green NEAR TERM...Green SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Helock AVIATION...Helock/CBL