####018006401#### FXUS61 KBGM 151959 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 359 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will persist through Saturday. Cooler weather with a few lingering showers is expected to round out the weekend on Sunday, before dry and cool weather arrives for the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 345 PM Update: As an upper level trough axis is moving through this afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed. These thunderstorms have been on the weaker side with somewhat limited instability and very little shear. That being said, with a weak steering flow present, these showers and thunderstorms have been on the slow moving side. As a result, while flooding has not been an issue so far, there is still a possibility for some isolated instances of flash flooding. The scattered showers and slow moving isolated thunderstorms quickly diminish this evening, with dry weather expected for most of the overnight. Stratus clouds and patchy fog are likely to develop once again. A decaying MCS/QLCS quickly approaches from the west late at night into early Friday morning; likely reaching Steuben/Bradford counties around daybreak. This line should be weakening as it rolls through due to limited instability in place. It will be mild overnight with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s. The weakening line of showers and isolated thunderstorms quickly moves east across most of the forecast area Friday morning. After this initial morning convection, conditions should dry out and clouds break for partly sunny skies heading into the afternoon and evening hours. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop in the afternoon along a cold front. However there is some question on how dry mid level air and capping could limit convective development. Otherwise, Friday will be rather warm and humid with highs in the upper 70s to mid- 80s and surface dew points in the low to mid-60s. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will diminish Friday night with very brief weak ridging building in and the loss of diurnal heating. Lows are expected to be mainly in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM Update... Warm front moves through the region Saturday morning bringing a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. Showers will move from west to east making an exit by early afternoon. The timing of the initial round will suppress/lack instability, model sounding show a cap in the morning hours. Once the showers move through skies attempt to clear behind allowing for some afternoon heating. Temperatures will be warm with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s with some spots in the low 80s in northeast PA. NAM sounding shows CAPE values ranging 1,000 to 1,500 J/Kg with 30-35 knots of bulk shear. The cap is not expected to break until the afternoon hours when a cold front moves through. This will set off a second round of showers and storms with more potential to produce isolated strong to severe storms. SPC has upgraded most of our region to a slight risk with a fraction of our western region still in a marginal risk. Otherwise the frontal system moves out of the region Saturday evening, with showers and thunderstorms ending with its departure. A brief dry period follows overnight with temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Upper level low continues to rotate as it moves east with wrap around moisture allowing showers to linger into Sunday. Model guidance has slight variations of the placement of the low keeping showers mainly in central NY. Although showers may also extend into northeast PA as well. Temperatures on Sunday will be cool behind the front with highs climbing into the upper 50s to upper 60s. Showers will dissipate Sunday night with drier conditions settling in. Overnight lows will fall into the low to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 300 PM Update... Cool pattern continues into the start of the week with northwest flow in place along with an upper level ridge building in. Dry conditions will finally hold Monday with high pressure building in at the surface. Skies will clear out by the afternoon with temperatures in the mid 50s for most of the region with some areas in northeast PA reaching the mid 60s. Similar cool and dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with a system passing just to our south. While the next round of showers is not expected until Wednesday, there is some uncertainty on the timing and ensemble, regardless NBM guidance still supports a slight chance PoPs. Uncertainty continues towards the end of the period but model guidance hints at another chance for showers Thursday. Otherwise temperatures remain cool during this period with highs in the low 50s to upper 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s with some patchy frost may be possible Monday night. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions will be present most of this afternoon, but with isolated showers and thunderstorms around, brief ceiling and/or visby restrictions will be possible if a shower/thunderstorms occurs over a terminal. Highest confidence in thunder was at KAVP, but with much less confidence elsewhere, thunder was not included at any other sites. If a thunderstorm does happen to pop-up near another terminal, amendments will be issued. Late tonight, some low stratus will be present, which will result in at least MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings. Conditions likely return to mainly VFR by late Friday morning, although there will still be some showers around. Outlook... Friday afternoon through Sunday...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunder possible, along with associated restrictions. Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/MJM NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...BJG ####018010405#### FXUS61 KAKQ 152000 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today. Conditions turn warm, with summerlike heat and humidity Friday and Saturday, and mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms possible ahead of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 400 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms develop late this afternoon and evening. The main threats are large hail and damaging winds, though a tornado or two is also possible. A weak low pressure is located near the area this afternoon with a warm front extending from just north of the area to a low pressure system in the Midwest. The upper level low that has brought the rain the last few days has opened up as a trough over the Mid-Atlantic. A weak trough is expected to develop in the lee of the mountains. NW flow aloft (35- 40 kt at 500 mb) will keep 35-40 kt of effective shear blanketed over the area. Model guidance continues to show this as enough initiation for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop. Convection aside, the mesoscale environment appears supportive of strong updrafts and supercells, with very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles on various forecast soundings. Dewpoints are currently in the mid 60s to upper 60s with current SBCAPE values near 2500 J/kg, with higher values of SE VA/NE NC. Effective shear values are also favorable with 30-40 kt values. THe special 17z RNK sounding showed lapse rates at 8.1 C/km at the 700- 500mb, which is uncommon to see in this part of the US. Environmental lapse rates near 7.0 C/km closer to our area would support severe hail as well. Low LCLs are additionally supportive. Recent high-res models continue to support several supercells developing across the W and NW, moving SE through the evening into central/SE VA and NE NC. The SPC outlook has the majority of the area in a slight risk (level 2/5) across the piedmont into NE NC. A marginal risk encompasses the rest of the CWA. On the most recent update, a hatched 15% hail threat was introduced with the potential to see hail up to 2" (egg size). Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats, though a tornado or two is also possible given the potential supercell storm mode and some increased low-level wind shear in the evening hours. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely to be issued this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is also likely in any storm and given we've had a wet past few days, WPC also has expanded the Marginal risk for heavy rainfall into most our CWA. Storms may linger through the late evening, but should taper off after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered showers and storms possible Friday and Saturday afternoons/evenings, some of which could be strong to severe. - Temperatures trend warmer, with a summer-like feel on Friday. Upper air ridging will continue to influence the region, while an upper level low strengthens over the northern Midwest. The ridging and sub-sequential SW flow will bring warm temperatures to the area. Highs are looking to warm up to the upper 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the high humidity, the day will feel hot and muggy in the lower to mid 90s during peak daytime heating hours. The big question for Friday will be if storms develop. The forcing mechanisms do not look to be strong, with ridging aloft and fairly constant pressure heights. With the highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and the trough heights near 5800 mb, the capping may be more easily broken with the weaker trough. Any lifting would have to come from some boundary, potentially as excess energy from the MCS to the northwest. The CAMs model (excluding the NAM) show initiation and a large convective complex Friday evening into overnight. There is uncertainty based on the recent CAMs, which show that storms may develop earlier. Models tend to struggle with events like this, so they are taken with caution. The coverage amount and timing remains in low confidence as model show very little agreement. If these storms can develop, they would enter a volatile environment for strong to severe storms. The moisture and warm temperatures will help the atmosphere become very favorable for high levels of instability. Recent CAMS models show values 2500+ J/kg of SBCAPE. Efficient shear to support thunderstorm growth is likely with models showing values of effective shear of 40-50 kt. Lapse rates from 7.0- 7.5 C/km and strong DCAPE could be favorable for strong winds and severe hail. With this environment, Friday is an all-hazards type of threat. In fact, SPC has upgraded the entire CWA today for this event, now with most all of VA and MD under a slight risk (level 2/5) and NC under a marginal risk (level 1/5). SPC has the wind threat as the highest risk at 15% for VA and MD as well as a 2% tornado risk and 5% within the slight risk. As for Saturday, a cold front will move through the region in the afternoon, but after the daytime highs is reached in the upper 80s. The environment will be similar to today's, favorable with ample instability and shear, but yet again the forcing mechanism will be the limiting factor as the front is forecast to weaken before reaching the area. With the warm temperatures like Friday, instability values of 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE are expected. Supportive shear values for storm development are forecast as well. Additionally, SPC has the majority of the area in a slight risk (level 2/5) except for the far NW counties of the CWA. There is still lower confidence in timing and coverage, but isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible, with a few potentially becoming severe. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Drying out Sunday into the early half of next week as high pressure returns. - Unsettled weather could return Wednesday and Thursday. Behind Saturday's cold front, high pressure will move back into the region from the north. An upper air trough will take over the majority of the CONUS. The next surface low pressure system will begin to develop out in the Central Plains. With the high pressure, dry conditions will be favorable for the first half of next week. Temperatures will return to seasonable with the trough. An upper level low is favored to develop in the Midwest Wednesday and Thursday, which will lead to an unsettled weather pattern. Afternoon showers and storms chance will increase in the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Thursday... CIGs have finally improved to MVFR/VFR at the terminals early this afternoon with SCT-BKN cumulus/stratocumulus. Mostly VFR through the rest of the 18z/15 TAF period. The main exception to this will be a period of IFR-LIFR CIGs at SBY later tonight- Fri AM. Also, scattered tstms are expected to develop west and south of the terminals later this aftn...and could impact RIC/ECG this evening-tonight. Have maintained PROB30 groups at these two terminals roughly between 23-04z. The chc of thunder is lower (but non-zero at ORF/PHF/SBY), so only have VCSH here. Any storm will be capable of producing LIFR VSBYs in +RA as well as brief gusty winds. The strongest storms could contain hail as well. Still have relatively low confidence in a tstm directly impacting one of the terminals. VFR across VA/NC later tonight into Fri-AM. Outlook: Additional showers and tstms are possible Friday aftn- Friday night. While there is a decent amount of uncertainty with respect to timing, some of the storms could be severe with gusts up to 50 kt. Predominate VFR conditions return over the weekend. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Generally sub-SCA conditions into the weekend, but with elevated SW flow ahead of a cold front Saturday, and elevated NW flow behind the front Sunday-Monday. - Locally strong to severe storms possible into tonight and again late Friday/Friday night. A weak pressure gradient across the area this aftn has led to light and variable winds, slowly shifting from SW to more of an E-SE direction across the lower Bay, and to the S elsewhere. Seas are still a bit elevated with SE swell, at 3-4 ft, with waves in the Bay/rivers/sound 1 foot or less, except near 2 ft at the mouth of the bay. Scattered storms, potentially strong to severe, are possible this evening/tonight, especially for the Bay/rivers and will be handled via MWS/SMWs as needed. Otherwise, winds increase a bit on friday, becoming S-SW ~10-15 kt, with yet another round of scattered showers and storms possible, but mainly holding off until very late in the aftn or early evening into Friday night. There may be brief period of elevated, near sub-SCA SW winds Saturday afternoon and evening, especially across the lower James/lower Bay. Winds veer around to the W/NW Sunday and Sunday night in the wake of a passing cold front. Next chance for SCA level winds comes with a secondary surge of cooler, drier air Sunday night into Monday, though this remains uncertain at this range. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Flood Warnings continue along the James River, at Richmond- Westham, and Richmond Locks have crested, but will remain in minor flood stage through Friday night. See water.noaa.gov for more site- specific information. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM/SW NEAR TERM...KMC/SW SHORT TERM...KMC/SW LONG TERM...KMC/SW AVIATION...ERI MARINE...LKB HYDROLOGY... ####018008363#### FXUS61 KOKX 152000 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 400 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm frontal boundary moves in from the south this evening and stalls within the area. Associated weak low pressure moves across late tonight into early Friday. Thereafter a surface trough moves across Friday and another one moves across Saturday. A low to the north sends a cold front through Saturday night. This low lingers in New England and into the Canadian Maritimes through Monday as high pressure pushes in. High pressure remains in control Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another frontal system impacts the area Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... For tonight, with any instability decreasing with the loss of diurnal heating, shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to considerably decrease with the absence of any significant synoptic lift. Upper level trough will be shifting east of the area, taking the highest positive vorticity advection farther east of the region. Winds become light and variable direction. Another night of low clouds and fog is expected across the area. A relatively warmer guidance for low temperatures tonight using MET/NBM ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A subtle mid level shortwave moves across Friday with some associated positive vorticity advection. At the surface, the frontal boundary across the area dissipates, leaving a general weak pressure gradient between low pressure well to the north and west and high pressure well to the south and east. Light southerly flow at the surface is expected. A warmer day is expected. NBM/NBM 50th percentile combination used for daytime high temperatures, well into the 70s for most locations and some locations reaching 80. More instability will be generated at the surface as a result, making for a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms. Marginal risk for damaging winds with these thunderstorms, particularly for areas that have more instability. The convection trends downward Friday night with the loss of diurnal heating. Winds in lower levels increase. This will keep warmer min temperatures Friday night. Again used combination of NBM and NBM 50th percentile, with lows ranging from upper 50s to lower 60s. Fog will be possible but was not put in forecast due to uncertainty with how well mixed boundary layer could be. Upper level low approaches the region Saturday with greater height falls. At the surface, a cold front approaches from the north and west. There is a likely a pre-frontal trough that develops that will be the focus for convective initiation. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase during the day with highest chances mid afternoon through early evening. The southerly flow increases Saturday and with further increase in winds in 5-10 kft, bulk shear increases. Warmer temperatures are forecast also using NBM and NBM 50th percentile. Outside of Twin Forks and SE Connecticut which have highs more in the lower 70s, rest of area is in mid 70s to near 80 with NYC Metro and parts of NE NJ getting more into the lower 80s. With more low level instability and more bulk shear, there is more of a risk for damaging winds with thunderstorms. SPC has western parts of the region with a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * A cold front cuts off precip Saturday night. * Becoming mostly sunny on Sunday with only slight chances for showers. * Dry & quiet Monday into Tuesday. * Another frontal system may bring a return to rainfall Wednesday into Thursday. A surface low in southern Canada/northern New York sends a cold front through Saturday night. Showers and/or any remaining thunderstorms diminish with the passage of the cold front with drier air getting advected in. Mostly sunny skies take over as high pressure gradually builds in from the northwest. To our northeast, low pressure will continue to exit into New England and into the Canadian Maritimes through Monday. This will lead to breezy W/WNW winds from an increased pressure gradient through Monday. An upper-level trough to our west on Saturday passes east SUnday night. As it moves farther away, it takes the surface low with it farther out to sea Monday night and thereafter. This allows a ridge to our west with high pressure at the surface to fully take hold, if briefly, Tuesday into Tuesday night. Dry conditions continue with winds becoming light under a weak pressure gradient. A frontal system from the Great Plains then moves into the Ohio or Tennessee River Valleys on Tuesday, moving through or in the vicinity of our region Wednesday into Thursday. Expecting showers during this timeframe. Too soon to call chances for thunderstorms. MOdel guidance still varies with timing, magnitude, and track of this frontal system. Have gone with chance POPs Wednesday into Thursday, as a result. Temperatures look to cool each day in the long-term period. Highs on Sunday will be in the low/mid 70s with all highs in the mid/upper- 60s by Wednesday. Nightly lows will range from the mid-50s to the mid-40s. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure weakens and passes near or just south of Long Island tonight. Another weak low approaches late Friday morning. Conditions vary significantly across the region from LIFR to VFR as breaks in the overcast have developed along the south coast of Long Island. Periods of VFR are possible along the coast into early this evening. Toward sunset conditions lower again to LIFR and IFR, and at times late tonight VLIFR. Conditions will be improving to MVFR Friday morning. There will be a chance of showers with thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Low confidence forecast with timing and conditions for tonight. Winds light E/SE to light and variable become light and variable throughout during this evening. A light south flow develops Friday morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments expected for changing flight categories throughout the TAF period. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday afternoon: MVFR with showers and a slight chance of tstms. Saturday: MVFR. possibly IFR in the morning, becoming VFR in the afternoon with showers likely, and a chance of thunderstorms with MVFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers inland. W winds G20- 25kt. Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Monday NW winds G20-25kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory continues across the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet ocean segment ending at 6 PM. Otherwise, generally weak pressure gradient in place in the short term through Saturday with conditions remaining below small craft advisory thresholds. Winds and waves are currently expected to fall below SCA criteria Saturday night through Tuesday. However, wind gusts may near SCA criteria on all waters Sunday under an increased pressure gradient. && .HYDROLOGY... Basin averaged amounts with showers and thunderstorms is expected to be near quarter to a half inch with locally higher amounts through Saturday. Thunderstorms could result in areas experiencing minor flooding, especially within urban, low lying and poor drainage areas. With increasing translational speed to thunderstorms, flash flooding is not expected. There are currently no hydrologic concerns Saturday night through the middle of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/BR NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...MET MARINE...JM/BR HYDROLOGY...JM/BR ####018009333#### FXUS64 KHUN 152001 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 301 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Remainder of this afternoon and tonight) Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 There have been no significant changes to previous near term forecast reasoning since the update earlier this morning. However, timing of potential impacts from a developing MCS (currently in progress across central AR), as well as another MCS (modeled by 12Z CAMs and the last few runs of the HRRR to develop later this evening across southwestern AR) will need to be refined as both systems evolve and a path/speed become more apparent. Should storms impact our CWFA, the highest probabilities of occurrence remain for locations along and north of the AL-TN border. Although conditional on the path of the MCS clusters, both deep-layer and low-level shear (as well as instability) will support a risk for strong winds and hail. Previous Discussion: A deepening surface low will lift northward across eastern portions of the Dakotas today and begin to occlude across western MN tonight, in association with a negatively-tilted 500-mb shortwave trough (initially across SD/NE) that will evolve into a closed low upon reaching northern MN by 12Z Friday. Although the downstream ridge (translating eastward across the TN Valley) will maintain a strong capping inversion across our region, light- moderate SSW flow at the surface beneath a 25-35 knot WSW low- level jet will provide sufficient low-level ascent to generate pockets of light rain beneath the inversion, warranting a 15-20% POP through at least early this afternoon. Due to competing influences from low-level warm advection and an abundant coverage of mid/high-level stratiform clouds, we will stick with NBM suggested highs in the mid 80s. To the north/west of our region, a dryline extending southward from the previously mentioned surface low will assume a more slanted orientation throughout the near term period as the northern portion surges eastward across southern IA/northern MO/northwest IL and into the Lower Great Lakes, while the southern portion remains nearly stationary from southern OK into central TX before retreating westward overnight. The intermediate portion of the dryline (extending from central IL into northeastern OK) will serve as a focus for convective development later this afternoon as it drifts southeastward and intercepts an increasingly moist airmass featuring dewpoints in the u60s-l70s. Present indications are that this activity will persist across the same general region this evening, with upscale growth into multiple small clusters possible during the early morning hours Friday as the strengthening low-level jet becomes aligned nearly parallel to the surface boundary. This activity should spread east-northeastward into the Cumberland Plateau region of eastern KY/middle TN with time and largely miss our CWFA to the north, but may clip our southern TN counties (particularly from 9-12Z) warranting a low (15-20%) POP. Due to the presence of a moist/unstable boundary layer and WSW low-level jet of 25-35 knots (beneath WSW mid-level flow that will be increasing into the 55-65 knot range), a conditional risk for a few stronger thunderstorms will exist across southern TN. The main hazards with this activity would be wind gusts up to 40-50 MPH and small hail. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1131 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Current short range model solutions suggest that multiple small convective clusters (north of our CWFA) will continue to spread generally east-northeastward and into the central/southern Appalachians after 12Z Friday, but may continue to impact our southern TN counties through 15Z, warranting a low (15-20%) POP. Although this convective regime will largely dissipate by late Friday morning, a remnant mesoscale differential heating or outflow boundary may serve as a focus for redevelopment of thunderstorms across southwestern MO/northwestern AR by mid-day. Present indications are that the intermediate portion of the moisture gradient boundary/remnant dryline (extending from the western Ozark Plateau into southern IN) will lift northward throughout the day as a distinct mid-level vort max (peripheral to the larger closed cyclone aloft) tracks eastward from eastern CO into northern MO, with development of supercells expected across a broad portion of the open warm sector tomorrow afternoon from southeastern MO/northeastern AR eastward into the central OH Valley/northwestern TN. The supercell regime will continue to spread eastward into the Cumberland Plateau region early tomorrow evening, but may also clip a portion of northwest AL/southern TN, with an increasing risk for severe wind/hail and tornadoes in this region perhaps as early as the 2-4Z timeframe Saturday. However, it still appears as if our primary severe weather event will occur with an MCS that will initiate from extensive convection over the Lower OH Valley early Friday evening and spread southeastward with time, reaching the northwest portion of the CWFA between 4-6Z. Upon initial arrival in our region, the MCS will feature a risk for severe wind/hail and perhaps a couple of brief tornadoes, as WSW flow aloft of 55-65 knots will be favorably aligned with a 40-50 knot WSW low-level jet for an extended period from late Friday afternoon-early Saturday morning. However, with time, the MCS will gradually lose intensity as it spreads southeastward, exiting the forecast area by 10-12Z. Lingering light rain may continue for a couple of hours after 12Z Saturday (especially south of the TN River), but extensive convective outflow in the wake of the MCS will surge southward, focusing any redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday from northern MS southeastward into central AL/GA. As a shortwave disturbance lifts northeastward across the southern Rockies on Saturday, surface pressures will begin to fall across eastern NM/TX Panhandle, with the remnant outflow boundary predicted to retreat northeastward on Saturday night. This may result in increasing probabilities for elevated convection across our region in the 3-9Z timeframe Sunday in the presence of weak elevated CAPE. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 A rather flat 5h pattern over the southeast U.S. will become more amplified from Sunday into Tuesday. An upper ridge will amplify and shift east into the Great Lakes south to the Gulf Coast. A longwave will follow into the Plains states and deamplify upon reaching the MS River Valley Tuesday and Tuesday Night. The residual surface outflow from convection on early Saturday will lift northward Saturday night into Sunday, keeping low to medium chances of MCS or at least scattered convective development in play. As the Plains surface cyclone emerges into KS/NE on Monday into Monday night, the boundary will lift northward with thunderstorm chances decreasing. The low will reach the upper MS valley on Tuesday night, with a trailing cold front into AR/LA. Low chances of thunderstorms will spread east into the region Tuesday into Tuesday night as a result. Warm advection will increase substantially through early next week at the surface thru 8h as a south-southwesterly low level jet increases across the entire Gulf state region northward ahead of the trough/cold front. 8h temperatures should warm back into the mid to upper 10s. Surface high temperatures will be in the lower 80s Sun, lower to middle 80s Mon, and middle to upper 80s Tue and Wed. Lows will be mainly in the 60s during this period, but could be as warm as 70 Tuesday morning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Prevailing conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals this forecast period, with forecast soundings indicating that a bkn coverage of mid/high-lvl clouds will continue thru 18Z Friday. That said, we will need to monitor the progression of clusters of TSRA that should track east-northeastward (largely to the north of the AL-TN border) late this evening thru the mid-morning hours Friday. Although probabilities for storm impacts are very low at the TAF sites, short term amendments and AWWs (for lightning/wind) may become necessary (particularly from 4Z-8Z and perhaps again later in the morning). In the absence of precipitation, development of low-level stratocu may also provide brief periods of MVFR conds in the 9-13Z timeframe, but confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast attm. Sfc winds will remain from the S-SW, with sustained speeds of 5-10 kts and occasional daytime gusts up to 15-20 kts. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...70/DD LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...70/DD