####018005977#### FXAK69 PAFG 152035 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1235 PM AKDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather persists across Northern Alaska. Easterly wind will be diminishing today for most of the area. A couple of showers are possible in the Interior today through Saturday but there is an abundance of dry air around, resulting a mostly dry day today and tomorrow. Saturday will come with the best chances for showers, especially in the Eastern Interior. An area of low pressure dips south towards the West Coast and brings isolated showers late tomorrow and into Saturday, then in the Western Interior on Sunday. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal for most spots. && .KEY WEATHER MESSAGES... Central and Eastern Interior... - Isolated showers today through Saturday, greatest chance in the Eastern Interior on Saturday. - Breezy east-northeast winds continue today but weaken through the afternoon and overnight. - Warming trend continues with highs in the mid 60s across many of the Interior Valleys this weekend. West Coast and Western Interior... - Quiet and mild weather persists today and most of tomorrow. - A low from the northwest drops in, bringing isolated showers to the West Coast Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday. - Isolated showers move to the Western Interior on Sunday. North Slope and Brooks Range.. - Quiet weather with near normal temperatures continues for most of the area through the forecast period. - A few rain and snow showers move towards the NW Arctic Coast and Western Brooks Range on Sunday. && .FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION... A 990 mb low in Bristol Bay is the main feature around the state. There is an exiting 1026 mb high centered just south of the Canadian Archipelago which extends westward into the Interior and northwest into the Arctic. Generally, lower pressure will overcome much of the state bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend and especially next week as the atmosphere moistens. && .FIRE WEATHER... Very dry once again this afternoon. We over-estimated min RHs yesterday as some spots got down into the upper teens. Min RHs will likely drop to 15-20% again today, especially in the Middle Tanana Valley. Most of the area will remain dry, but there is a slight chance for a shower over the Yukon-Tanana Uplands. This shower chance continues tomorrow with the highest chances coming on Saturday as the atmosphere gradually moistens. There is little to no chance of wetting rains. Min RHs will gradually increase to 25-30% this weekend with overnight recoveries around 45-65% tonight and tomorrow night, then 55-75% this weekend. The areas with the lowest max RHs will be in the Middle Tanana Valley. Temperatures will be increasing into the mid 60s by this weekend. Next week, we will be monitoring for increased chances for thunderstorms across the Interior. There seems to be a risk for storms most days next week as of now. && .HYDROLOGY... The Yukon River is open from Tanana to downstream of Mountain Village as of Wednesday afternoon. Ice runs from upstream of Tanana continue as ice degrades between Beaver and Rampart and heavy ice runs are still being seen along many reaches of the Yukon. Water levels remain low and no flooding is anticipated. For Buckland River: - The Buckland River is slowly breaking up, with some open water in front of town. Directly upstream from town there is a mix of intact ice and open water and beyond that mostly open conditions towards the headwaters. Ice remains mostly intact downriver from Buckland, including at known jam points. -A local observer reports that water has come up two feet overnight 5/14 to 5/15, six more feet of rise will bring water levels over bank. Snow melt in the basin brings the potential for flooding as early as Friday if the intact ice below Buckland is strong enough to resist the push of water and ice. && .EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7... A relatively quiet pattern with no major systems expected, but we will be monitoring for daily thunderstorms beginning on Monday and continuing through the rest of the week in the Interior. This may be the start of our daily thunderstorm watch this summer. The pattern looks ripe for at least increased chances for thunderstorms each day next week. Temperatures look to be rising, especially in the Interior with highs potentially pushing 70 degrees or higher by the end of next week and into next weekend. There are no significant wetting rain chances expected for the Interior. For the West Coast though, we will be monitoring the chance for a Bering Sea low which could bring widespread wetting rains by the end of next week. The exact track of this low is uncertain and low confidence but there is the chance for something floating around the Bering Sea. There is also a chance that this low follows climatological norms and dips into the Gulf of Alaska leading to little to no rain. This is something that will be monitored closely. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Flood Watch for AKZ818. PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-816-852. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ811. Gale Warning for PKZ815-861. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860. && $$ Bianco ####018005499#### FXUS65 KCYS 152035 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY 235 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions continue today and tomorrow for most of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska with gusts 40-60 mph possible. - Temperatures near to just below seasonable expected through early next week. - Next chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend with another low-end risk of stronger storms, particularly on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 232 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 Radar and satellite data shows scattered showers and thunderstorms popping up across the region this afternoon on the backside of a deep low moving into the Great Lakes region, with embedded disturbances rounding the periphery of this system. Looking over the next several hours, while some meager instability is present as mesoanalysis shows MUCAPE values around 500 J/kg and low level lapse rates around 9.5-10 C/km, forcing is not present and inverted V soundings will assist in keeping showers and storms high based, but could also produce some gusty localized gusty winds. Otherwise scattered precipitation should persist through the afternoon with activity subsiding as diurnal heating ends during the evening. A few stronger wind gusts have also been noted this afternoon primarily along the foothills of the Laramie Range and just below the summit near I-80. Although not frequently hitting the 58+ mph gusts needed for high wind criteria, several have occurred and being near a major corridor has prompted a high wind warning through 4 PM. This could be aggressive, but would rather be on the safe side. Winds should also calm down tonight, but will gust again tomorrow to around 40-50 mph, though the 700mb jet will max out along the borders of SD/WY/NE, so a few stronger gusts potentially breaching the high wind warning criteria of 58+ mph could be possible for northern counties of the Nebraska Panhandle.. Otherwise Friday should be a quieter day as precipitation exits the region and skies see some clearing under a weak transient ridge. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 232 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025 The long term sees active weather return as our next Pacific system moves into the region over the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms likely. Scattered precipitation is expected on Saturday, but more widespread coverage of activity is anticipated on Sunday alongside better chances of some stronger thunderstorms. Favorable instability in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE with forcing from frontogenesis and cyclogenesis should promote a few stronger storms, even if wind shear has declined as of this update. It would not be surprising to see a marginal risk encompass our region on Sunday with some breezy winds or small hail possible, but stronger activity to warrant higher risk seems unlikely as the environment will just not be there. But deep moisture advection from easterly flow should help produce fairly widespread precipitation for the day with moderate to some locally heavier accumulations not out of the question. That being said, QPF values seemed a little too aggressive this early, with a 2 inch bullseye just south of Chadron noted, so those were toned down at this time. Early to middle of next week our region will be on the backside of this aforementioned system, with some scattered showers still possible Monday and Tuesday, but they will be on the decline. Temperatures should cool notably with highs expected to be around 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year with highs in the 50s, but a warming trend will bring us back to near normal by the middle of the week. Some breezier winds could be possible with gusts around 40 mph, but stronger winds like what we see today and tomorrow are not as likely at this time. We should otherwise experience warming and clearing skies to bring a pleasant end to the long term as we move away from the disturbed weather of the end of this week and this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1057 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025 CU field continues to bubble up this afternoon as a wave moves across eastern WY/western NE. Some light showers are developing, but support is a lot less than that of yesterday. Best chances for showers remain toward KRWL/KLAR through this afternoon, but some showers may still reach the remainder of the sites through 00Z. Have added a couple TEMPO groupings for western sites, with PROB30 for KBFF/KCDR until peak heating ends early this evening. Winds will continue to howl through the day, with frequent gusts at 40kts through this evening. Winds will ramp down overnight, but jump back up early tomorrow morning with more gusts above 35kts. The main weather system in the Dakotas tries to wrap back southward Friday morning, and may bring some low clouds and light rain to KCDR, possibly as far south as KAIA through 18Z. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...High Wind Warning until 4 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ116-117. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...WFO-RIW ####018005218#### FXUS64 KBMX 152035 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 335 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 231 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025 - There is a marginal risk of severe weather on Friday night into Saturday morning across the northern portions of Central Alabama and then again late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening across much of Central Alabama. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1154 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025 It's quickly warming up out there with the early morning cloud cover now mixed out and a steady supply of sunshine across the area. In the low to mid-levels, a broad ridge is centered over the northern Gulf with warm, dry flow from the west. The ridge axis will gradually shift eastward through tomorrow with deep-layer flow transitioning more to the southwest. After a mild night, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow afternoon with many locations in the south expected to reach the lower 90s. The forecast remains dry until late tomorrow night, as discussed below. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2025 No major changes were made to the grids. Only a minor change was made to the severe timing for pre-dawn hours early Saturday as the storms could arrive a tad sooner, so we bumped up the start time for severe potential from 3am to 1am. Otherwise, all other thinking is similar. 08 Previous long-term discussion: (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025 A low pressure will deepen and move over the Ohio Valley, with a frontal boundary moving into the area Friday night through Saturday evening. Rain and thunderstorms could move into the northwestern counties after midnight, with activity increasing in coverage by mid morning. As the front sags south, most of the area should see showers and thunderstorms by the early afternoon, continuing through the evening. Instabilities are high, with 3000 J/kg plus forecasted right now, and plenty of shear. Will have to analyze the severe potential as the front gets closer. Uncertainties include how quickly the front makes it into the area and how much convection will occur through the morning ahead of the stronger afternoon storms. Sunday, high pressure develops over the Gulf with flow turning to the west and southwest around this high. A shortwave is expected to move across the southeast states with showers and thunderstorms again Sunday afternoon. Instabilities right now look to be slightly lower than Saturday, though still high, with several thousand J/kg. Any activity should weaken fairly quickly with sunset. Monday and Tuesday, the high pressure should become the dominant feature with most of the area remaining rain free each day. A series of thunderstorms will move around the high, with most of the coverage north of the area. The very far northern fringes of central AL could see isolated to scattered convection each afternoon. By Wednesday, a low pressure will develop over the Plains and move east. A frontal boundary with that low will move across the state. The front should be stronger with the low pressure closer to the state compared to the low moving through the Ohio Valley this weekend. Though the wind field is expected to be widespread and moderate. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025 High pressure over the area will support VFR conditions this afternoon. Winds will be breezy again this afternoon from the south at 8 to 12 kts with gusts up to 18 kts at times. Southerly flow continues overnight and guidance indicates low ceilings and some patchy fog will advect across the area again early tomorrow morning, reducing ceilings into IFR/MVFR criteria. The cloud deck should mix apart towards the end of this TAF cycle with VFR flight conditions returning. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... An overall dry trend will be in place through Friday. Slightly drier conditions than this afternoon are expected on Friday ahead of the next system. Minimum RH values will be the 40s north to upper 30s in the south, with 20ft winds around 7 to 10 mph. Rain enters the area Friday night across the north with rain chances continuing through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 67 88 67 87 / 10 0 50 30 Anniston 68 89 69 86 / 10 0 30 30 Birmingham 70 88 69 86 / 0 0 40 30 Tuscaloosa 70 90 71 88 / 0 0 30 30 Calera 69 89 71 87 / 0 0 20 30 Auburn 68 89 69 86 / 0 0 0 20 Montgomery 69 92 70 90 / 0 0 0 20 Troy 68 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....08/24 AVIATION...86/Martin ####018008571#### FXUS61 KPHI 152039 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ Issued by National Weather Service New York NY 439 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will dissipate through the evening. Brief period of ridging comes in tonight, with a warm front coming through on Friday morning. Unsettled weather with periods of showers, storms, and high humidity continues through Saturday until a strong cold front comes through on Saturday Night. Drier high pressure will settle into the region by Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... The low clouds and fog from this morning continue to mix out and improve this afternoon. With the mid level trough axis remaining in the vicinity and the weak surface low nearby as well, diurnal instability has resulted in some isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon. PoPs were increased slightly across the board for this afternoon. With PWats around 1.25-1.50", heavy downpours will be possible as well as gusty winds and small hail. PoPs are generally around 40-60%, but those that see something could see some urban and poor drainage flooding. A Marginal ERO (1/4) remains across most of the area given potentially slow storm motion and a saturated surface with some areas seeing 2-3" yesterday. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely as shear is pretty weak, but can't rule it out completely. High temperatures will be mainly in the 70s and a bit muggy. A brief period of quiet weather comes tonight as a brief period of ridging moves overhead. Marine stratus is expected to push inland again tonight. Could see some areas of fog yet again, though not expecting it to be as widespread or as dense as this morning. Mainly dry through tonight following the diminishing diurnal convection, but still mild and humid, with lows in the upper 50s/low 60s. For Friday, a decaying MCS from upstream across the Midwest this evening is anticipated to impact the region. The threat of severe hazards will be conditional based on the timing of the MCS. If it comes through very fast and early in the morning, the severe threat will likely be low. However, a slower propagation will yield increasing instability ahead of it, which would support strengthening. These systems do tend to trend faster and further south of what guidance suggests. If a slower evolution comes to fruition, all severe hazards would be possible, mainly focused on locally damaging wind gusts, but some hail or a brief tornado could be possible if all the stars align properly. Brief heavy downpours possible as well. This MCS and the environment ahead of it will need to be monitored closely overnight. The SPC has introduced a Slight Risk for portions of our area to highlight this threat. Depending on how quickly the MCS passes offshore, we could potential for diurnally driven convection developing in the afternoon or early evening as well. A faster/earlier departure of the MCS will yield a greater threat for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon, but a slower/later departure will mean a much lower threat for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Something else to keep an eye on as well. In summary, Friday's weather and forecast will be highly mesoscale driven and have low predictability beyond about 6 hours or so. High temperatures should be mostly in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and muggy with depends in the mid to upper 60s. It will be mostly cloudy with light south to southwest winds. Remain alert for additional forecast updates regarding the potential convective threats. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Forcing strengthens with an incoming potent shortwave digging from the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure slides by to the north Saturday into Saturday Night, with a cold front advancing towards and eventually through the region. Another decaying MCS may impact the area again Friday night or early Saturday. Any convection Friday night and Saturday could be impacted by this system. Temperatures will climb into the 80s and it will feel quite muggy ahead of the front. Instability looks to be on the order of around 1000 J/kg with relatively favorable shear. Thinking any showers and thunderstorms will come in the afternoon and evening as the front arrives. Main concern would be damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours, but still a good amount of uncertainty being a couple days out, especially given the potential for another early MCS. Coverage in showers and thunderstorms diminishes into the night with the loss of daytime heating and passage of the front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday through about Tuesday actually looks pretty nice for now. With the front coming through, it should result in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures to close out the weekend and start next week. Perhaps a little gusty on Sunday, with wind gusts near 30 MPH possible, but nothing significant. Next chance for rain comes in the middle of the week with longer range guidance hinting at a potential coastal storm. Still widespread timing and track differences but another spring rainmaker could potentially be on the horizon. Stuck close to NBM given the uncertainty in the ensembles and deterministic guidance. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 00Z...Mostly VFR, but some MVFR ceilings possible at times. Isolated SHRA/TSRA, but have maintained VCSH given isolated coverage. Winds 5 kts or less favoring an E to S direction. Medium confidence overall. Tonight...Most likely VFR to start, but restrictions likely return overnight with low clouds and areas of fog. Low confidence on timing and details. Winds light and variable to calm. Friday...Restrictions likely to start, then improvement to VFR expected between 15-18Z. A complex of SHRA/TSRA is anticipated to impact the area early in the day, but confidence on timing and details is low. Opted for an SHRA with PROB30 for TSRA for now. Details should become more clear in future updates tonight. Winds mainly 5 kts or less, settling out of the SW by 18Z. Additional SHRA/TSRA possible by 21Z. Low confidence overall. Outlook... Conditions expected improve for Friday night and Saturday with prevailing VFR likely during the daytime, aside from any showers and thunderstorms move in. VFR conditions look to come Saturday Night and beyond. A few gusts out of the west/northwest 20-25 kt possible but other than that, no significant weather beyond Saturday Night. && .MARINE... The Marine Dense Fog Advisory and Small Craft Advisory were allowed to expire at 4 PM. Some isolated showers/storms possible this afternoon. For tonight, winds and seas remain below advisory criteria. However, areas of fog will remain and some locally dense fog is possible. Another Dense Fog Advisory may need to be considered in a future update. Outlook... Sub-SCA conditions expected Friday through Monday. However, showers and spotty thunderstorms may continue to be a risk through Saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for the upper portions of the tidal Delaware River for minor flooding forecast at Burlington. Philadelphia should stay just shy of minor flood thresholds through the remainder of the week. Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the early morning high tides through Sunday morning as well, especially along the upper reaches of the tidal Delaware River. Additional advisories may be needed. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ106. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NJZ019. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/Staarmann NEAR TERM...Staarmann SHORT TERM...Hoeflich/Staarmann LONG TERM...Hoeflich/Staarmann AVIATION...Hoeflich/Staarmann MARINE...Hoeflich/Staarmann TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staarmann